INVASION! (Game Over, Nobody Wins)

[Pesco]

The final vote count at the time of lynch

Oh, that.  Sure.

[Kitten4u]

Finished rereading the thread.  My top suspects have not changed.  Anthony and Rou were hilarious to read with the VGT flip in mind.

##Vote Evil Magnum Anthony

VGT avoids commenting on Anthony at first, and then he defends him multiple times.
Now Anthony starts defending VGT and the comments on Kilga look like a chainsaw defense.
This is just weird.  Agreeing with Kiro that it looks like he doesn't want to bus his buddy

So basically they defend each other (and Anthony does it with a chainsaw once) and Anthony votes Suwako despite saying that VGT looked worse.  His actions yesterday were pretty scummy without the flip too, so he remains my top suspect for today.

---

Now for Rou

I'm reading this as "they're not going for an Anthony lynch so I'll poke someone else even though I have a better case on Anthony."

His list o' lynch targets is weird too.  VGT is on his list, but he's at the bottom and Rou sort of defends him.

And I love this one.  UK asks him to point out VGT's "decent content," and Rou ragequits.  He never answers that question when he returns.

The blatant use of AtA makes me very uncomfortable.  I still get the vibe that he wasn't using the "third person on the wagon" thing because of the idea behind it, but because he thought it would somehow convince the rest of the town to vote for Anthony.

So yeah, still leaning scum on Rou as well.

---

I like the case on Serp.

Kilga, why do you think Affinity looks good?

Rou's case on Sodium isn't terrible, but it feels a lot weaker than all the other cases brought forward (except for maybe Serp's case on Suwako).

I'm going to do another reread on Suwako later.  Currently I'm leaning town on her due to the VGT flip, but her behavior was really weird and I don't really know how to deal with it.

Serp's case on Suwako is pretty meh.

-_-
Pretty bad posts all around(191, 195, 213). Neutral due to switch to VgameT at the end of the day though. Awaiting next post.

What do you dislike about my posts?

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga, why do you think Affinity looks good?

I don't think he looks GOOD, I think he looks the least villainous of those on the Suwako wagon. His vote for Suwako was early on, telegraphed by a couple of posts showing suspicion, and for different reasons than other people provided. This looks more like an honest townie mistake than any of the other Suwako votes.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Kitten: Your case on me is sort of paradoxical. You say 'he's trying to avoid the Anthony case', then say 'he's coming up with bad reasons to get people to lynch Anthony'. Are you attacking me for pushing him and standing away, or for pushing him for bad reasons?

As for the VgT thing, I honestly thought that pressing people for information was a decent enough idea, and that's what VgT was doing - asking questions. That's what I thought his good content was, and it's why I overlooked his lack of a vote. I couldn't really think of a way to say it other than 'he's being useful'. -_-

[Kitten4u]

I don't think he looks GOOD, I think he looks the least villainous of those on the Suwako wagon. His vote for Suwako was early on, telegraphed by a couple of posts showing suspicion, and for different reasons than other people provided. This looks more like an honest townie mistake than any of the other Suwako votes.

Ah, okay.

Kitten: Your case on me is sort of paradoxical. You say 'he's trying to avoid the Anthony case', then say 'he's coming up with bad reasons to get people to lynch Anthony'. Are you attacking me for pushing him and standing away, or for pushing him for bad reasons?

Where do I say that at all?  The closest thing I can think of is the first link and the AtA stuff.  I said that your switch to Suwako looked weird because I thought your case on Anthony looked better.  It looked like you realized that the Anthony lynch wasn't going to happen, so you poked someone else.

If it's the use of AtA that you're refering to then yeah, that was bad.  AtA is a logical fallacy.  While your case on Anthony was good, the AtA bit was really, really bad and I find your use of it scummy.  That one bad point didn't totally make your case on Anthony worthless though.

If it's something else...Uh I'm going to need the condesending explanation then.

As for the VgT thing, I honestly thought that pressing people for information was a decent enough idea, and that's what VgT was doing - asking questions. That's what I thought his good content was, and it's why I overlooked his lack of a vote. I couldn't really think of a way to say it other than 'he's being useful'. -_-

Correct me if I'm wrong, but last game didn't you think that KGH only asking questions and not actually taking any stances bad? 

[Sodium]

Kitten4u:

There is a reason my vote is on him right now.   I'm not disagreeing with you there.  It's just that using "the statistic says so" versus "this is why" looks like you were trying to use AtA, which I don't like.

I don't get this; I read this as you saying "Third on the bandwagon=evidence", which was proven wrong before that post.

You do realize that that's a discredited tell, right? Precisely because it's in the wiki actually.

Tell me if you meant something else.

And 213 was basically "I don't get it to umu(later cleared up), and then a post re-read that consists of:

Eliphas seems to be playing like he did last game.  I don't like it, but I have no idea what it means at this point since he was town last game.  I'd like to hear some thoughts on what's been going on since you haven't posted for awhile.

Pesco's play seems similar to last game too.  I see a lot of acusations thrown and a lot of questions being asked, but no real cases being made.

Which is basically "KGH and Pesco are similar to last game so META!, but wait, that doesn't mean anything for KGH, so why am I saying this?".

---
Anthony jumps onto a wagon! Well, at least this time he gives reasoning, although I would like him to have given more opinions on other people, instead of just one sentence on Angel Milk, and half of a vague sentence to Roukan. Lot's of info there.

Angel Milk needs to post, you know, some opinions. Quality ones, hopefully. And Angel Milk=Tenshi?

Kitten4u Cut:That would be me, who was scum. Either way, I thought that was one of the things town me would've done.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Where do I say that at all?  The closest thing I can think of is the first link and the AtA stuff.  I said that your switch to Suwako looked weird because I thought your case on Anthony looked better.  It looked like you realized that the Anthony lynch wasn't going to happen, so you poked someone else.

If it's the use of AtA that you're refering to then yeah, that was bad.  AtA is a logical fallacy.  While your case on Anthony was good, the AtA bit was really, really bad and I find your use of it scummy.  That one bad point didn't totally make your case on Anthony worthless though.

I have nothing to say other than that I honestly believed the 3rd on the wagon thing was worth considering, at least on Day 1.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but last game didn't you think that KGH only asking questions and not actually taking any stances bad?

By Day 4? Yes. On Day 1? No.

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: Agh, messed up.

Where do I say that at all?  The closest thing I can think of is the first link and the AtA stuff.  I said that your switch to Suwako looked weird because I thought your case on Anthony looked better.  It looked like you realized that the Anthony lynch wasn't going to happen, so you poked someone else.

There were two main reasons that I switched:
- Anthony had already received a good deal of votes, so it wasn't like moving my vote was going to remove him from discussion.
- In contrast, a lot of people had said that they didn't approve of Suwako's posting (or lack thereof), but no-one had had the patience to outright vote it. I felt someone had to change that to start discussion.

[Kitten4u]

I don't get this; I read this as you saying "Third on the bandwagon=evidence", which was proven wrong before that post.

I was saying that the idea behind it was decent; that scum will jump onto bandwagons.  The fact that he was third didn't really mean anything, it was simply the idea behind the statistic that I agreed wtih.  The fact that he was relying more on the stat than the idea feels off.

Which is basically "KGH and Pesco are similar to last game so META!, but wait, that doesn't mean anything for KGH, so why am I saying this?".

Okay, I can see where you think that feels off.  I'll blame it on me trying really, really hard to make sure I don't tunnel again.

Kitten4u Cut:That would be me, who was scum. Either way, I thought that was one of the things town me would've done.

I know that Rou nor KGH was scum that game.  The question was "didn't you [Rou] think that KGH only asking questions versus having stances was bad?". 

---

Cut by Rou

I'll drop the AtA thing for now since it looks like we'd just start repeating ourselves.

By Day 4? Yes. On Day 1? No.

Then what exactly are you supposed to do with the questions you ask?  I was under the impression that you asked questions so that you could have a better stance.

There were two main reasons that I switched:
- Anthony had already received a good deal of votes, so it wasn't like moving my vote was going to remove him from discussion.
- In contrast, a lot of people had said that they didn't approve of Suwako's posting (or lack thereof), but no-one had had the patience to outright vote it. I felt someone had to change that to start discussion.

Hm...

I'm going to take another look at that wall.  brb

[FinnKaenbyou]

Question. Why are you talking so much now compared to D1?

I'll make another confession here - one of the reasons I didn't go for VgT as hard as I could was because Kilga was attacking him, and I was suspicious of Kilga for being so supportive of Suwako.

Then what exactly are you supposed to do with the questions you ask?  I was under the impression that you asked questions so that you could have a better stance.

I assumed he needed time to come up with a decent enough suspect. Besides, in comparison Suwako had one stance which he didn't move from and basically didn't show any opinion on the remainder of the game besides 'you all suck', so it isn't like you're that much worse...

I was saying that the idea behind it was decent; that scum will jump onto bandwagons.  The fact that he was third didn't really mean anything, it was simply the idea behind the statistic that I agreed wtih.  The fact that he was relying more on the stat than the idea feels off.

I'll put this down to having played so many games using this tell that the stat was more or less rammed into my head.

[Kiro]

Doing the reread on Serp, I'm not sure if he's the right lynch today. Primarily because in his first serious post #168, he puts the 3rd vote on Anthony as opposed to the 5th vote on VgT. If Anthony is scum as well as VgT, I'm not certain why he would bring Anthony up as a runner up rather than the numerous other wagons that had only 2 votes on them (see Edible's count at #161 and factor in Anthony's vote onto Rou in #168).

I don't think disagreements people have with Serp's scumhunting philosophy (#222) is scummy bad. It's reasonable for a Townie to think that Suwako was Scum trying to WIFOM skirt by Day 1. Although the lack of mentioning VgT in that post is noticably bad. I do see Serp has put in a defense for his actions in #335. So-so imo, but lack of discussion about Anthony. Serp, what's your opinion about Anthony at the moment and is Suwako still more likely to be Scum over Anthony?

Overall, even if Anthony flips Scum, I wouldn't completely clear Serp's actions as his continued pursuit of Suwako is kinda meh at the moment. I think without looking at possible flips between Anthony and Serp, Anthony has a higher chance of being scum. His case on Angel Milk looks too lazy and probably the easiest case to go for in Day 2 regardless of alignment. It's really bad, but to meta Angel Milk a little bit, I can see Angel Milk being Townie and not putting as much effort into the game and make a wrong choice in choosing between VgT and Suwako. That's all we have to go on at the moment, and I see more evidence for Anthony.

Anthony: Who else do you think is Scum besides Angel Milk?

Regarding Rou: Argh, don't feel like doing the reread on him now. Frankly, my reasons for finding him suspicious on Day 1 were contingent upon Anthony possibly being Town. Since I think Anthony is Scum now, I'd like to see Anthony's flip first before reconsidering Rou. Because Rou will at least look better than Serp if Anthony flips Scum. And Rou being the very first vote on Suwako seems null. Granted he was trying to raise awareness about Suwako, but if Rou was Scum, there was no guarantee he'd get enough players in the game to actually press this wagon all the way to the top 2 no matter how bad Suwako's statements looked.

[Kitten4u]

Question. Why are you talking so much now compared to D1?

More time and people being on at the same time as me.

I assumed he needed time to come up with a decent enough suspect.

Unfortunately, just about every question I can think of for this goes into "theory."  I guess all I can say is that I disagree.

Besides, in comparison Suwako had one stance which he didn't move from and basically didn't show any opinion on the remainder of the game besides 'you all suck', so it isn't like you're that much worse...

I'm certainly not defending Suwako's actions, so I don't see what that has to do with anything. 

I reread the switch to Suwako wall.  The defense makes sense, so I'll drop it for now. 

[Kilgamayan]

You make me sad, Kiro. :( What about Serp's complete 180 from "We should use scum flips when we get them" to trying to completely undermine the foundation of using a scum flip to investigate while continuing a worthless Day 1 case makes his continued pursuit of Suwako "kinda meh" and not "holy shit this is bad"?

I have no problem with an Anthony lynch (or a Tenshi lynch, which I'd actually slightly prefer to an Anthony lynch), but come on now.

[Kilgamayan]

Also, to touch back on the subject of "What if VGT and Suwako were both scum?", I would like to point out that there was a time when VGT had 4 votes and Suwako had none. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Why was there a sudden influx of votes for Suwako, then? The logical conclusion is that scum would have been trying to save VGT, is it not? Why would scum try to save one buddy by pushing another to the forefront, and out of nowhere to boot? Why would they try to call attention to an somewhat attentionless buddy when they could have pushed cases on, say, Anthony or pesco or Tenshi or even Roukan? Even if they weren't 100% on the ball, why wasn't there any push on any of those people to save both VGT and Suwako? Ignoring VGT's in-between shot at Eliphas, there were seriously four consecutive Suwako votes, with the next two votes after that being VGT and Suwako again. Every other case was completely left in the dust. Where is scum team trying to push the lynch onto someone else? Shouldn't they be doing some sort of work to make sure there's at least ONE townie up for lynching?

Occam's Razor says that Suwako was the townie scum tried to set up for the alternative to VGT. The idea that one scum was sitting on top of the vote count and the response to this was a second scum shooting straight from the bottom to the top with no effort made to push anyone else is downright silly.

[Edible]

Vote Count: Pettan pettan tsurupettan~
Anthony (3) - Kiro, Pesco, Kitten4U
Angel Milk (2) - Suwako Moriya, Sodium
Roukanken (1) - UncertainKitten
Serpentarius (1) - Kilgamayan
Suwako Moriya (1) - Serpentarius
Sodium (1) - Roukanken

Not voting: Anthony, Nietz, Zakeri, Angel Milk, Affinity

Votecounts reorganized to have those with the most votes on top.

[Kiro]

Well, while I'm also of the mind that Suwako is likely Town at the moment, and even more likely so if Anthony or even Tenshi flip Scum, I can see Town Serp still gunning for Suwako... barely. That's why I want Serp's comparison between Suwako and Anthony and Serp might as well toss his opinion of Tenshi into that mix too. I may adjust my opinion depending on the replies we get from these various people.

I still think VgT doing that off tangent comment about WTC Mafia and Anthony at the beginning is the most damning thing I've ever seen in Mafia. There is no reason for Scum VgT to stick his neck out for anyone so early and so spur of the moment unless it was a scumbuddy. If he was trying to gain Town cred and divert a Town Anthony mislynch, I think he would have voted one of the people who jumped onto Anthony in that same post. The only way this latter scenario comes into play is that VgT flubbed it up real bad; but Anthony's actions on his own are pretty damning in their own right.

[Kilgamayan]

Forget gunning for Suwako in particular for a moment. You really think that TownSerp would go back on his earlier words about working off of scum flips? As opposed to, say, going "whoops, my bad" before using VGT's flip to find someone scummier than he is?

[Kiro]

Probably not, but that's for Serp to answer and provide a better explanation for his Day 2 Suwako vote and words. And thinking about it more, if Suwako were Scum who by chance got brought up wagon wise, Suwako optimally "should" have voted VgT rather than just throw it away on you. So I'm not quite following Serp's argument as to why Suwako throwing that vote away is indicative of Suwako being Scum.

Looks troubling enough. I don't mind your case but I'm not going to switch my vote unless something develops to push someone over Anthony.

[Affinity]

I personally agree with Suwako looking much more townie with the flip, since I don't see why scum would want to prop up Suwako instead of... say, Anthony which was another viable lynch if Suwako is scum himself.  Of course, people can mislead, but I don't think that the misleading potential outweighs the practical benefits of trying to prop up another townie.  Suwako calling the case on VgT stupid and voting for Kilga is really odd though, and the fact that he doesn't use the flips that he has been harping on D1 makes him seem a little strange.  Don't think that he's a viable lynch for today though, but I want to see those contributions.  Lastly, I don't like his actual posts either.

I don't like Anthony due to the chainsaw and the defense of VgT which wasn't called for at all, and VgT not liking the Anthony thing because 'he's a super easy lynch target', and actually using that to implicate Kilga because 'he started it'.  He also didn't answer my question about how to catch such 'easy targets' properly.  Lastly, this post which defends Anthony so much is really telling.  So all in all, I agree with the case on Anthony.  Going for Angel Milk is also rather dubious considering that he commented on no one else; except 'Rou's statement' which he just skirts.

##Vote: Anthony

---

@Rou:

Little contribution, waiting around to be the hammer on VgT

Why the latter?  Doesn't seem fair if he was just a victim of circumstance on that point.

[Pesco]

Main reason I wanted to reread K4U was because I thought she voted Suwako. Turns out she didn't and only asked Suwako to post more. Meh null points for now.

Which is basically "KGH and Pesco are similar to last game so META!, but wait, that doesn't mean anything for KGH, so why am I saying this?".

So what does this mean for me?

Tenshi needs to deliver the post he promised 7 HOURS ago.

I need to look over Rou's lead up to his Suwako vote. That might provide me with a better opinion on him. Currently leaning Idiot.

[Kitten4u]

So what does this mean for me?

I'm assuming this is directed at me.  It basically means that I didn't find you particularly scummy, but I was definitely going to be keeping my eye on you.  Now that VGT flipped scum I find it unlikely that you are scum as well.

[Pesco]

Was meant for Sodium, but your answer is fine too

[WHMZakeri]

##Vote: Serpentarius

Reasoning is mostly because we agree with Kilgamayan that not using scumflips to make new cases is very very bad when you say yourself that people should use scumflips to make new cases.

[Pesco]

People who voted Suwako and the post they did it in.

Rou
Affinity
Serp
Zakeri
Anthony
VgT
Tenshi

Brief notes:
Rou - Talks about a whole bunch of other people but the vote is on Suwako. The way I see it, it launches the wagon with what was said about him getting too much of a pass.

Affinity - IIRC Affinity avoided VgT completely on Day 1. The back and forth between Affinity and Umu gives me the feeling that he'd have called for her NK if he was scum. His vote has better backing than Rou's.

Serp - Reasoning is pretty meh. I can see why even Sodium is laughing at you. Likely a throwaway vote on the wagon.

Zak - Possibly also a throwaway vote, but I recall Zak being more proactive about pushing Suwako prior to the vote. Though, I question why he chose to vote Suwako after all when he mentions a lot of agreeing with the case on VgT.

Anthony - Big hesitance to vote VgT and completely unoriginal waffle. I'm really hating the similarities he's got with Zengar wrt the 'waiting for more evidence'. Ties the wagons at L-4 apiece. This would be the one of the swing votes (K4U being the other on VgT instead).

VgT - Flipped scum. Obv a vote to save himself.

Tenshi - Hatefully little content when he claims to have read the thread. I want to reread him, not from what he's posted this game but from his previous game. He's a newb that doesn't know how to manipulate meta so the tells from there would still be fresh.

My vote on Anthony is still good.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Granted he was trying to raise awareness about Suwako, but if Rou was Scum, there was no guarantee he'd get enough players in the game to actually press this wagon all the way to the top 2 no matter how bad Suwako's statements looked.

Wait, what?
There were nearly 48 hours left in the day phase when I made that vote. To say 'he did it because he knew there was little chance of Suwako getting voted by other people even if his posts were terrible' is a horrible line of thought.

I still think VgT doing that off tangent comment about WTC Mafia and Anthony at the beginning is the most damning thing I've ever seen in Mafia. There is no reason for Scum VgT to stick his neck out for anyone so early and so spur of the moment unless it was a scumbuddy. If he was trying to gain Town cred and divert a Town Anthony mislynch, I think he would have voted one of the people who jumped onto Anthony in that same post. The only way this latter scenario comes into play is that VgT flubbed it up real bad; but Anthony's actions on his own are pretty damning in their own right.

...But in that post, didn't VgT basically endorse the case on Anthony? Going on that I had done something similar as the godfather in a previous game?
Honestly I don't see this as as strong a point either way as you do, so I'm calling null tell on it. Anthony's other actions speak for themselves.

Zak: Is that seriously all you're going to say on the matter? Really? No other opinions at all? T_T

[Pesco]

Tenshi will lurk regardless. But delivers a post with content with some prompting.

I think this is pretty conclusive for lack of scumhunting this time round.

[ES-Anthy]

Ok now, everyone is taking my opinion on Vgt, which was basically just me saying it was in a way, a crap case, then later saying it was at least decent, but then I felt more for suwako being scummy, which to me doesn't exactly look like a huge attempt at defending someone.

Now to actually state my case on angel milk better due to the fact that I was lazy before, I was voting angel milk due to the fact of the lack of posting so far, which that, combined with not being night killed shows that there is a possibility of angel milk being scum, since personally I wouldn't leave someone alone if they were being slient like this, so overall he just looks really scummy to me, also since my vote wasn't counted before, might as well put it up again.

##Vote:Angel Milk

The whole thing with me backing off of someone due to Rou's posts are mostly because I'm just trying to take that into account, which I am failing at, nothing more, nothing less.

Right now when looking this over, my go at suwako on D1 was a stupid idea, because from this standpoint it just shows more of a town look than scum, so suwako is clean by my look, especially since suwako is actually making some sense to me.

Overall, the people who look like scum to me are Angel milk due to silence and not getting night killed,and the only other one is pesco, just a gut feeling which I guess isn't really a good reason.

So yea, I'm focused on an Angel Milk lynch.

[Pesco]

Overall, the people who look like scum to me are Angel milk due to silence and not getting night killed

:facepalm:

and the only other one is pesco, just a gut feeling which I guess isn't really a good reason.

Gut doesn't come from nowhere. Speak up.

[ES-Anthy]

and the only other one is pesco, just a gut feeling which I guess isn't really a good reason.

Gut doesn't come from nowhere. Speak up.

Overall it's most of the reasoning of me being reluctant on day 1 in 355 and a bit in 383, which was due to me not wanting to just randomly throw a vote and get more heat, which is probably a common reaction for people.

[Affinity]

Affinity - IIRC Affinity avoided VgT completely on Day 1. The back and forth between Affinity and Umu gives me the feeling that he'd have called for her NK if he was scum. His vote has better backing than Rou's.

I did talk about VgT briefly here

The whole thing with me backing off of someone due to Rou's posts are mostly because I'm just trying to take that into account, which I am failing at, nothing more, nothing less.

Right now when looking this over, my go at suwako on D1 was a stupid idea, because from this standpoint it just shows more of a town look than scum, so suwako is clean by my look, especially since suwako is actually making some sense to me

... uh none of us has been NK'ed yet so everyone has an equal possibility of being scum.  Furthermore why would you, as scum, want to kill Tenshi when he would probably be a top suspect the next few days due to the lack of posting?  Furthermore, how is my rival, Suwako, making sense to you?

...But in that post, didn't VgT basically endorse the case on Anthony? Going on that I had done something similar as the godfather in a previous game?
Honestly I don't see this as as strong a point either way as you do, so I'm calling null tell on it. Anthony's other actions speak for themselves.

First of all, VgT has defended Anthony as can be seen from the beginning of the game.  Secondly, what business do you have in defending Anthony at all?  Lastly, can you answer my previous question?

@Suwako:

Where has your case on pesco gone to?  What do you think of him now?