In a game where Town got distracted by Suwako's behavior and also let Serp and the rest of Scum get away with a Day 3 Suwako mislynch before lynching Serp in Day 4, I am focusing on those aspects to pin down my last 2 suspects. For me, my head is hurting from thinking about who's the scummiest because almost everyone fouled up in one way or another. So an approach that I think is easier for me to handle was to look at those events and work backwards and think about who is the most likely to be Townie first. To start, I am reaffirming that I think the last 2 Scum are Affinity and UK. Thus, the bulk of these points are addressed to K4U, Sodium, and Rou, because it is them that I intend to convince in order to get Town to win this game. Relooking at all the players:
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K4U: Votes Anthony early, doesn't initially see the VgT case, but does eventually vote VgT picking him over Suwako. Continues on Anthony in Day 2 for what looks to me like consistent reasoning. Votes Serp early Day 3 and stays on in #606. Also agrees to vote Serp early in Day 4 and does. Quite clean so I believe she's Town.
Elphias/Sodium: Elphias votes VgT early in #90 when there's little pressure on VgT so it really does look too early to be a hard Scum bus. Sodium comes in Day 2 and votes Angel Milk in #351, leans Town on Suwako. Also votes Serp early Day 3 and when Sodium addresses Suwako's post in #578, he decides to stay on Serp. Reiterates said point in #584. And votes Serp early in Day 4 and stays on it. I also think he's Town now. Just don't like his comments about how Rou is obvScum, mostly because I think he's wrong and I'm not seeing it as a scummy error. Anyways, see next section.
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Rou: He looks bad through all of the game and if we could afford to mislynch, he'd definitely be expendable. But he's not, so I searched for things that strike me as something Town would do that Scum can't do. And I found three major instances that indicate he's not likely to be Scum. The first is his Day 1 activity. He makes a big deal about Anthony being 3rd on the wagon and draws attention to himself that way. That's not how Scum would play in a game where they don't know what Town has waiting for them. This is especially true in that he harped on that point repeatedly until being publicly told that it was a discredited scumtell. In essence, it looks like he had no scumbuddies to tell him to shut up about that point because he's not Scum with access to Daytalk. I think everyone still alive actually mentioned this aloud afterwards and there was plenty of time for any scumbuddies to tell him that he was about to say something stupid. In other words, there has been no coordination in reining of Rou's statements. Rou sets himself up as suspicious too early and it makes no sense for a Scum to do that to himself.
The lack of coordination also applies to the second instance which is his Day 4 activity. He defended Serp beginning in #652, but it was in the context of the "potential" LYLO argument. But if Rou were Scum, he would have known Serp was the Scum Vig and unable to save Town. He also had to weigh in the fact that Serp was still likely to have been lynched given the early Day 4 comments. Rou's actions have no semblance of knowing all of the above as the topic is argued for a full page. His argument on defending Serp wasn't even about anything scummy Serp did, but it was concerned that Town would auto-lose and at this point, I thought he was Town who tunnelled in on that single point.
And as a reminder, Scum Rou has no reason to start up a fresh mislynch wagon on Suwako in Day 1. It's just not efficient when VgT had 4 votes on him at the time. He could have stayed on Anthony who would have had 3 votes and remain perfectly competitive to Scum VgT. Scum Rou with his team banking on those votes to come is a pretty risky strategy when there was a mislynch wagon already in place as there was no way they could do it alone. All of the faults that Rou has committed have been well documented, including stuff I stated. But we can't afford to be wrong so in this viewpoint, I'm going to stay with the idea that Rou is a Townie.
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To discuss Affinity: Votes umu in #98 for the case on Rou. Then prods K4U in #173 all of which is a sign of being non committal to the major issues at the time including VgT. Also:
As for, Kitten4u, I would like to see more elaboration on why you don't agree and why you do agree other than just saying stuff. For now, she's to me slightly scummier than the likes of VGameT and Nietz,
This was more of a prod than a case; just didn't want to see her go under the radar. And I have not thrown aside everything else yet.
The above two statements don't really match. Looks like you're just fishing for something. And then you vote Suwako in the same post for contradictions. Rather ironic. And to reiterate on the Day 1 bandwagon stuff, I've said it's highly unlikely for Scum to "start" the Suwako mislynch from scratch, but it's not unreasonable to think they added onto it to make it competitive. Affinity's vote brought it equal to Anthony's wagon and Serp (confirmed Scum) put it to one under VgT.
We're going to take that angle into Day 3. Affinity in #546 votes Rou with willingness to switch to Serp. He makes good points on Serp too. What I think is the problem is that he votes Suwako in #570 replying only to Suwako's points. There's no mention of Rou or Serp while he makes the vote. Shouldn't there have been something because BOTH Rou and Serp are the ones who have voted Suwako before you. Did you even factor in that your top 2 Scum suspects were the ones that started this wagon? And to reiterate wagon balance, this inches Suwako up to 3 and makes it competitive with the 4 votes on Serp. And finally, Rou already asked you some questions for Day 5 like asking where your suspicion on UK went.
To answer your Day 5 concerns about me: My #555 which talks about Suwako is me getting irritated at Suwako and starting to find him suspicious regardless of the Occam's scenario. Saying I preempted Serp to go for Suwako is dumb. Even if I were a hypothetical scumbuddy to him, Serp is his own person and will make the cases he so chooses and can't take it back once it's posted. As for the theories I've made, I make them because I think they're worth considering. Theories can be wrong and I can look scummy for bringing them out so go ahead and call me out on them. For your example, I got fooled by Serp in Day 3, simple as that. My opinion changed in Day 4 after seeing Suwako flip Town and Pesco's role so I don't see my Day 4 post as a conflict, but an updated opinion. You updated your opinion of Serp as well. What I would like to say about my Day 3 switch from Serp to Suwako is that I considered and talked about it a great deal and considered several aspects including that Serp could be messing with me. You did not do the latter which is something others can compare between us. I've already addressed why I think Rou is Townie and that without the luxury of having a mislynch, we have to vote correctly and just looking at who has the most crimes does not mean he will flip Scum.
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Moving onto UK: There's the vote on Anthony and then the re-parking of her vote onto Edible. If you have no secondary suspect, then not contributing to discussion or brushing off Pesco's asking what your opinion on VgT is in #73 is anti-Townie. You also have a weird progression through Day 1:
#189: "VgT is better, but lacks action."
#197: I "may have to push Suwako a bit"
#202: Willing to vote Anthony now.
#233 is where you switch to VgT. That looks alright of course.
It's from Day 2 on that I see some major problems with you. You vote Rou first in Day 2. Then in #399, you take the time to reread and stay on Rou. The problem is that you don't seem to make much of an effort to push your case unlike say Kilga with his Serp case. You're passively ok with other lynches like Anthony, Serp, or Angel Milk but your vote never touches any of them so there is some serious apathy and lack of backbone to your suspicions on any of them.
In Day 3, you arrive to the thread late, after Serp made his Vig claim and Suwako was ahead 4-3. Despite all this, you vote Rou in #599, say you can't get behind a Suwako lynch, but would be more enthusiastic about a Serpy lynch. You reaffirm that you don't like the Suwako wagon at all even more strongly in #602, but you don't do a damn thing about it. Suwako is ahead by 1 vote, the day is almost over and you have your vote on a wagon that for all reasonable purposes, is not going anywhere. If you're so convinced about Suwako being the wrong lynch, then vote Serp so that it ties the wagons up and potentially causes the Suwako wagon to fail. Once again, severe apathy and you don't change your vote to a dominant wagon before the Day ends. Very very bad and it can be interpreted as complicitly letting the mislynch occur. You can't take any credit for being right about Suwako because you didn't make any actual effort to save him or dissuade those who were voting Suwako.
And finally, you vote Rou in Day 4 again and never actually touch Serp. You say lynch one today, lynch the other tomorrow so haphazardly which is dangerous to state in LYLO and I know Town UK wouldn't be so careless to say it like that. How I think you are worse than Sodium in this regard is that he voted for Serp in Day 3 and Day 4; you never did. Given that I also think Rou is Townie now, your tunneling on him throughout the game is me seeing an extended attempt to mislynch him. But you don't do much in actually pushing for this lynch which strikes me as bad. So I peg you as Scum as well.
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I find both UK and Affinity compelling targets, but here's an interesting thing we can do based off Nietz' tracker results. If Town agrees UK is scummy enough to be lynched today and she flips Scum voteblocker, then Affinity is still a valid target for Day 6. If she flips Scum Goon, then Affinity is almost certainly a Townie as he can't be a voteblocker. And I would have to reevaluate everyone again. Furthermore, if UK flips any Scum, then that should convince everyone else that Rou is almost certainly innocent. UK tunnelled on Rou for so long this game that it's unreasonable to think she would do that to a scumbuddy from mid Day 1 to now. The above is just a suggestion, but I am ok with either lynch and will vote either equally. Awaiting comments.
Cut by Roukan: Nothing to really comment on there.
