INVASION! (Game Over, Nobody Wins)

[Kitten4u]

Don't like how K4U is simply saying 'Serp and Rou are scum' without giving the slightest consideration to the Pesco hit.

Uh, that was taking Pesco's death into account?  Considering I didn't believe Serp's claim yesterday what makes you think that two flips that make him look worse would suddenly make me think he's town?  Several people had already said that, so I didn't see much of a reason to repeat them.

I agree with comments about Serp's case.  He's looking like cornered scum to me.

the strangeness from Kitten4u on D3.

I'm assuming this is refering to the post where I try to rationalize Suwako being scum.  I stand by what I said there.  The only way I could see him being scum was if they planned it and if they planned it I imagine that they would be earlier on the wagon so that they would look better.  But Suwako flipped town so 1) I couldn't have been trying to make it look like I'd be suprised when he flipped scum 2) I couldn't have been setting up lynches for when he flipped scum.  If you want to say that I was setting up lynches for when he flipped town...Well I've fround Rou off since D1 and I found you scummy long before I even said that soooo why is this off?

---

I can actually understand where Rou is coming from with the "potential LYLO" thing, but based on what everyone else is saying it might not mean anything.  And since Kevorkian doc + tracker vs votestealer + hitman makes more sense to me than Kevorkian doc + vig vs. vote stealer + tracker I'm leaning towards it not meaning what Rou thinks it means.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Okay, fine. Let me be as condescending about my case as I possibly can to explain where I stand. Not that it matters anymore, given that I've apparently been demonised for not thinking Serp is obvscum. >_>

The main point going against Serp right now is that he is scum for approving of the Suwako wagon. I don't agree with this, because being wrong <> being scum (otherwise I'd have been lynched a long time ago >_>). Suwako was almost deliberately unhelpful, and her constant reprimanding of the entire thread did nothing to help matters. Hell, by Day 3 enough people apparently agreed with him to go along with Suwako's lynch, so why are we suddenly turning on him for it?

If you look at his statements today, I think that implicates him pretty heavily as he ignores the 3 people on Suwako's wagon and goes for the person who happens to be the opposing power role for balance issues. That may seem like the obvious choice in his point of view, but unfortunately, it's not so clear cut to the rest of us.

WHAT? I don't see how this is anything other than clear cut. We're almost definitely dealing with either Vig/Doc vs. VB/Tracker, or Tracker/Doc vs. VB/Hitman in terms of balance. Why is it scummy for Serp to make the obvious choice?

As much as I hate Kiro for being abnormally blind to the possibilities and convinced that Serp is obvscum, I have to admit that Vig/Tracker/Doc is not a likely combo given that scum only seems to have a voteblocker in return. Therefore:

##Unvote: Whoever I Was Voting
Vote: Nietz

Pesco still valued you as a target ahead of Serp on D3. He was willing to trust me, so I'm putting trust in him.

Yes, I'm putting all my eggs in one basket. Yes, I'm aware that if I'm wrong I've basically singlehandedly killed the Town one way or another. No, I don't care, because I'm tired of this game.

[UncertainJakutten]

The main point going against Serp right now is that he is scum for approving of the Suwako wagon. I don't agree with this, because being wrong <> being scum

Wrong.

The main point against Serp is the fact that he hasn't been doing any real scumhunting, was pretty much not saying anything useful D1 and I do believe D2 as well, among other things I'd have to delve back and bring up my wall for.


And...Rou...is...buying...into...Serp's...convoluted theory...

Yanno what? I don't care. One of them needs to die today, and the other tomorrow. Sound good?

[Edible]

Vote Count:  Persona PSP is easier than the original
Nietz (2): Serpentarius, Roukanken
Serpentarius (1): Sodium
Roukanken (1): UncertainKitten

Not voting: Everyone else

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Kiro]

Serp: If Scum were going to benefit more from getting you lynched than Suwako, why would Scum Tracker Nietz reveal you're a Vig? By itself, Vig is more likely to be Town than Scum and that would have reduced your chances of being lynched. Your case for why a Scum Nietz revealed himself still doesn't make sense. Furthermore, if Pesco also decided to come down against you, it would have been considered appropriately whether he roleclaimed his Kevorkian Doc role or not. Don't see what appealing to what selected dead Townies thought has to do with anything. Several Townies were wrong, why are you not mentioning what Anthony, the dominant Day 2 wagon, thought?

In regards to the other scum, you're saying Nietz, Sodium, and K4U are it? So there was no scum help in pushing Suwako (other than VgT) on Day 1 and none on Day 3? You realize how farfetched that sounds? I'd half agree with your reasons on Rou, but the ones for Affinity looks sketchy. His reason for going on Suwako looks good and he backed off in Day 2 but went again on Day 3 when you brought it up again? How are you not considering that as possibly opportunistic? Affinity has not voted correctly once unless we assume that his vote on Rou is in hindsight, correct. And you think both of them are Townie still? In regards to me, clearing me while waffling on something you perceive as part of my meta doesn't make sense either. And explain better why a Nietz scumflip favors your mislynch over Suwako's when you both are inextricably linked and both Townie in such a situation? I think what I stated in my first paragraph shows there would have been no preference between you and Suwako. So I think that debunks the premise for your suspicion on K4U and Sodium. I feel your clearing of virtually everyone else on the Suwako wagons is not convincing enough and not realistic enough given the game's environment.

Rou: I'm not finding Serp additionally scummy for making the obvious choice, what I am finding him additionally scummy for is not talking about other targets while he first voted Nietz. If he's Town and in the hot seat, he should be telling us everything he can think of including who the scumbuddies might be. It's obvious he should have thought about it at Night, but he only mentions Nietz first before he's prodded to mention other targets. It's obvious to him, but from his position, it's anti-Townie to not mention anybody else and he knows that. However, such behavior while in the hot seat fits Scum better because he distances himself from possible scumbuddies.

Could use some more input from Affinity and some updates from Sodium and K4U. Also waiting for Nietz to directly address the case and votes levied on him.

[Nietz]

At this point, the only thing I can think against lynching Serp is that despite what he said he might still be a regular SK whose N1 kill got thwarted by pesco. But I'm not to crazy about that hypothesis.

Actually, his N3 would have to be prevented too, so that makes it more improbable. I guess it's definitely scum then.

Serp is just flaying around and trying to somehow save himself without giving any useful hint to Town. I would be fine with his lynch anytime, though I would like one more day to let me look over the other players and try to give some opinions, since I'll likely be the NK.
Anyway, ##Vote Serpentarius, since I don't think I can change my mind by now.

As for Rou, he's trying so hard to link himself with Serp that I can only think that he wants to look "too scum to be scum" after Serp's flip.
Though I can't help being amused at that "lover's trust" with pesco he mentioned.

[Sodium]

##Unvote: Whoever I Was Voting
Vote: Nietz

Pesco still valued you as a target ahead of Serp on D3. He was willing to trust me, so I'm putting trust in him.

Yes, I'm putting all my eggs in one basket. Yes, I'm aware that if I'm wrong I've basically singlehandedly killed the Town one way or another. No, I don't care, because I'm tired of this game.

...You're voting Nietz because Pesco, a dead man(with whom you have a love-hate relationship), put Nietz ahead of Serp, and because of Serp's crackpot theory? What the fuck? 

Rou for obvSerpBuddy

Serp is attacking the people attacking him! Whoo!

[Edible]

Vote Count:  Don't Believe In Rou, Believe In Pesco Who Believed In Rou
Nietz (2): Serpentarius, Roukanken
Serpentarius (2): Sodium, Nietz
Roukanken (1): UncertainKitten

Not voting: Kiro, Kitten4U, Affinity

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Affinity]

Sorry, was celebrating my birthday yesterday.

---

@Serp:

It's because I don't think Nietz as a scum tracker has anything to gain from randomly choosing a townie as the fake 'investigation' you were considering on N1, instead of his scumteam. 

---

@Kiro:

I believe that Serp already said that my suspicion against Suwako had been telegraphed throughout the previous days, which is true.  That answers that point.

---

Despite me thinking that what Serp said is decent enough, it came too late, since this is a case of guilty until proved innocent.  I still think that he's the right lynch today, and that the 'potential' Lylo could mean anything.  More later.

[FinnKaenbyou]

...You're voting Nietz because Pesco, a dead man(with whom you have a love-hate relationship), put Nietz ahead of Serp, and because of Serp's crackpot theory? What the fuck?

tl;dr - If you're going to be wrong, be wrong and be whole-hearted about it.

No, I don't care, because I'm tired of this game.

The way I see it the game's over anyway. Either you guys are wrong, Serp gets lynched (since apparently no-one's listening to me) and we lose; or you're right, I get lynched tomorrow, and we still lose. If it's set in stone like that (which by now it pretty much is), I may as well go down with the ship while the orchestra plays in the background rather than freeze to death in the tepid wastes of uncertainty. (And before you ask, it's 1am. Sleep deprivation may be leaving me overly poetic at this point in time.)
Basically, I'm sick of this game and I want it to end one way or another. >_>

I'll note though that there are exactly three people labelling me as obvscum for supporting Serp at this juncture - Nietz, Sodium and UK. Sounds vaguely like 'if we can get either of these two lynched, it works'.

Rou: I'm not finding Serp additionally scummy for making the obvious choice, what I am finding him additionally scummy for is not talking about other targets while he first voted Nietz. If he's Town and in the hot seat, he should be telling us everything he can think of including who the scumbuddies might be. It's obvious he should have thought about it at Night, but he only mentions Nietz first before he's prodded to mention other targets.

Couldn't you accuse UK of doing the same by basically going for me for, well, the last three days and putting everyone else aside? Or Nietz for producing more or less nothing today other than 'Serp is scum because of A, B and C'?

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: And happy belated birthday, Affinity.

[Kitten4u]

I don't really have much to add. 

Serp's case looks like a huge OMGUS with a healthy dollop of conspiracy theories to try to support it.  He still looks like cornered scum and it looks like he's desperately trying to get someone else lynched to me.  Still my top lynch choice for today.

Rou is actually confusing me.  I think Serp is scum, so I'm not sure why scum!Rou (assuming that Serp is scum) would defend him like this, but I also find Rou scummy enough that he could be scum even without this.  Hm...I'm still leaning scum at the moment.  Besides the things I've been suspicious about since D1 he's also voted on all three of the wagons that Serp's pushed, and I'm under the impression that he thought Suwako was town and that he thinks Nietz is town (correct me if I'm wrong Rou).  This is...extremely weird to put it mildly.  He's also made no effort to push other cases even though he's convinced that Serp is town, which is also weird.  Combined with everything else I simply can't clear him because of the defense.

[Edible]

Votecount is unchanged.

You have, uh... 14 hours left or so?  Feel free to ##Extend; I'll give you another day if you think you need it.

[FinnKaenbyou]

he thinks Nietz is town (correct me if I'm wrong Rou).

I think Nietz is as guilty of not contributing to conversation as Serp is, and the only reason he's been let off is his claim yesterday. Scum rolecop isn't impossible, and in terms of balance one of Nietz or Serp is most likely scum. I'm going all in and going for the former.

[Sodium]

...Wait, what? We only have that much time left? The hell.

Roukan: You're obvscumbuddy if Serp flips scum. I am almost certain that Serp is scum. If he's town, then I don't even know what Serp was doing this game. Well anyways, you're obvscumybuddy because:
constant defense of Serp
voting Nietz for... questionable reasons
chainsaw of VGT
joined Serp in a crusade against Suwako

Won't make deadline, so keeping vote on Serp.

[Kitten4u]

@Rou
Ah, okay.  Who do you think are his buddies?

I'll be on for about another 30 mins, and I may be on a few hours before the deadline.  Not sure if I will be or not, so I'll be sure to vote before I get off tonight.

[FinnKaenbyou]

@Rou
Ah, okay.  Who do you think are his buddies?

It's a hard choice, to be fair. UK has been tunneling me pretty much all game, but I don't know how much of a scum that makes her. Affinity was almost cheerleading the Suwako lynch for a while on D3 and came in with Serp is obvscum today, so he's probably likely. Kiro...I just have bad vibes about him. I'm really irritated I can't put it into words, but he seems a little strange this game. Sodium is another guy screaming obvscum Serp, but to be fair I don't see all 3 scum doing the same thing.
So I'd put Affinity down as the most likely buddy first and foremost. If I had to guess third, I'd go out on a limb and go for Kiro.

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: It also doesn't help that Nietz and Affinity are saying something along the lines of 'It's possible that Serp really ISN'T scum, but...'. It's like they're distancing themselves from the lynch, which in Lylo can't be good.

[Kitten4u]

Okay, I have to get off  and I'm not sure if I'll be back on before the deadline so... ##Vote Serpentarius

[Kiro]

Affinity: Just because you telegraphed your suspicion of Suwako throughout the game doesn't make it Townie in nature. A bad lynch is still a bad lynch. Waiting for what else you have to say.

Rou: I don't think Nietz has avoided discussion. If you look back through Day 4, he stated why he found Serp suspicious at the start, didn't like the theories Serp put out and has also taken the time to comment and voice his suspicions about you and talk about the LYLO debate. If you think he's trying to distance himself from the Serp lynch by expressing doubt in #689, I'm not really seeing that. He thought Pesco might have blocked the second N1 kill, but retracted that statement because it doesn't explain the lack of a second N3 kill. The substance of that hesitance doesn't really qualify as distancing.

I'm a little wary of the contrast of comments about Rou that K4U and Sodium make. K4U takes the time to think about it a little more while Sodium is quite direct with his declaration. Given that what Rou is doing is an obvious WIFOM regardless of Rou's alignment, I'm a bit more wary of Sodium's bluntness rather than K4U's analysis.

Leaning towards a Serp vote, but want those updates from him and Affinity before I vote.

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count: I'd Give You Everything I've Got For A Little Peace Of Mind
Nietz (2): Serpentarius, Roukanken
Serpentarius (3): Sodium, Nietz, Kitten4u
Roukanken (1): UncertainKitten

Not voting: Kiro, Affinity

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

You have a little under 11 hours remaining

[Affinity]

Affinity: Just because you telegraphed your suspicion of Suwako throughout the game doesn't make it Townie in nature. A bad lynch is still a bad lynch. Waiting for what else you have to say

How are you not considering that as possibly opportunistic?

These two are almost direct contradictions, since the first quote has shown that it's not opportunistic.  While I agree that telegraphing doesn't make it townie in nature at all, it has not made me more scummy either, judging from Zakeri and other's flip of town on pursuing Suwako.

I have not cheerled either.  I've questioned, stated opinions on D2, and voted, which does not make it cheerleading. 

Thanks Rou for the wish (actually it's today but I celebrated yesterday), but still, saying that it's possible doesn't mean anything because I don't think it's probable at all.  Also, at this point in time, there's no point in distancing yourself from a bandwagon which would probably be a game-ender that isn't correct, since my vote is pretty much on Serp potentially (on Nietz it is even worse because he already voted him in the first place).  His continued absence has not given us much to work with, so....

##Vote: Serpentarius

[FinnKaenbyou]

Screw it, no way we're gonna get anything in the last 5 hours. You guys had better be right.

##Unvote: Nietz
Hammer Vote: Serp

[Kilgamayan]

Final Day 4 Vote Count: Down Goes Frazier, Down Goes Frazier
Nietz (1): Serpentarius
Serpentarius (5): Sodium, Nietz, Kitten4u, Affinity, Roukanken
Roukanken (1): UncertainKitten

No vote: Kiro

Serpentarius, thought to be playing Remilia Scarlet, but really playing Remirya (Scum One-Shot Limited Vig) can't take it easy anymore!

It is now Night 4. Remember, please send all night actions to both of us.

[Edible]

[Kilgamayan]

Dawn of the Fifth Day

Nietz, playing Watatsuki no Yorihime, Town Tracker, got hit BANG! ZOOM! Straight to the moon!

With 6 remaining, it takes 4 to lynch.  You have 72 hours. You are still in pseudo-LYLO.

[Nietz]

Fine, you can kiss my sexy royal ass, earthling chumpettes.
I'm taking the next pimpmobile back to the Moon.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Alright, so with Nietz dead I'm very, very confused. People who were early on the Serp wagon D3 - namely Kiro, Sodium and K4U - should logically be given just about a clear today. That would leave Affinity and UK as the final scumpair in my eyes, but since Nietz returned nothing after tracking both of them I'm very confused. I'm convinced one of them is scum, but the buddy must be hiding somewhere in the crowd.

I was intending to open the day with accusations of a Nietz/Affinity scumpair, but that's apparently gone down the plughole. Seriously, that's the third day in a row my intended suspect's been hit during the night. T_T

But enough of that, let's play a fun game called Jump Around The Bandwagons. Affinity is the grand champion!
D1. Umu > K4U > Suwako (no sign of VgT)
D2. Anthony > Rou > Anthony
D3. Rou > Suwako
D4. Nietz > Nothing > Late vote on Serp

This is pretty wrong. Serp was the case on everyone's lips on day two and three, merely looking at things by votes while disregard the sentiment put forward by, uhh, you, Kiro and others sounds remarkably short-sighted.

Y'know, that's funny, because looking back through your D2 and D3 you don't specify any interest in the Serp case at all beyond occasionally saying 'I'll have to re-read him'. You also made an effort to clear Serp from suspicion for being a late hammer on VgT by saying 'circumstance could have screwed him over'.

##Vote: Affinity

I honestly don't know at this point who his buddy is. Tracker results suggest that UK is highly unlikely, and the remaining three were upfront on Serp and VgT. If I absolutely, positively had to choose right now, I would probably go for K4U given her late positions on the Serp and VgT wagons, effectively playing the field D1 ('I don't like VgT or Anthony or Rou') and not much in terms of contribution elsewhere. Affinity is still my top lynch for today, though.

[Kiro]

Before I get in a really long post (as I'm working on a reread now), just want to say that the Tracker results don't necessarily clear UK.

Affinity was tracked Night 1 with negative results, meaning he can't be the voteblocker. UK was tracked Night 3 with negative results, but the important thing to note is that Day 4, there was no voteblock in effect. In essence, it is entirely possible UK is the voteblocker and got Anthony on Day 2 and either held back (to avoid Nietz' track) or was restricted from voteblocking Night 3. I assume it's possible we could check for a voteblock again today, but the mods seems nice enough to tell us.

Nee, Kilga-chan or Edible-neechan? No voteblock today. (neechan?)

From what I've gathered so far, I'm leaning towards both Affinity and UK, but Affinity definitely is leaps above everyone else.

[FinnKaenbyou]

I was also considering that N1 it could have been Serp who performed the kill. Assuming that he was able to perform the hit on top of being a vig, anyway. N3 Affinity is the obvious choice to perform the hit as he's already been tracked and found clear, so the voteblocker's silence that day makes sense in terms of not being discovered.

Still, it felt like it was asking a lot in terms of probability. Were it not for that, I'd very much like UK as a suspect given that she's been tunneling me since D2 and therefore avoided having much opinion on the other wagons.

Regardless, Affinity is easily my preferred lynch today.