INVASION! (Game Over, Nobody Wins)

[Affinity]

Changing opinions for no discernable reason at all is bad.  This is so for your 'suspicion' against Kilga.

Not explaining exactly why everything I said against you and Rou is horrible is bad.  Why, you are good and we are bad because you're not from MotK.  How infallible.

Thinking that I'm scummy for pushing a case on you that is supposedly 'bad' while going against your D1 creed that 'contradictions aren't necessarily scummy, scum can play protown, etc.' is horrible, even overlooking your reactionary scumhunting.

Reactionary scumhunting is bad.

Not making an effort to 'grasp' our cases and happily burning self-made strawman dolls is bad.

It's quite obvious, isn't it?

##Unvote
##Vote: Suwako Moriya

[Edible]

Vote Count: Beyond the Bounds Edition
Serpentarius (4): Kiro, Sodium, Kitten4U, Nietz
Suwako Moriya (3): Serpentarius, Roukanken, Affinity
Roukanken (1): pesco

Not voting: UncertainKitten, Suwako Moriya

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

[Kilgamayan]

Damnit, I was updating. :<

[Edible]

Take solace in the fact that I added an awesome song to mine, I suppose.

[Kilgamayan]

I would, but now I'm sad that you stole post #573. D:

[FinnKaenbyou]

- Scum are being quite obvious with their killing and voteblocking patterns, taking out the intelligent players (UU, Kilga) and throwing voteblocks on the people they want lynched (Anthony, me).  This rings no bells to anyone?

This means one of two things.
- Scum is so stupid they're making the most obvious choices possible. I honestly don't see any of the currently surviving players as that bad.
- Scum is trying to be clever and ACT stupid so that they can pin hits on easy targets.

There's no response I can make to Rou's "case" on me because it is not really a case, as he himself has said.  I beg reconsideration.  Serp's and Affinity's at least have arguments... albeit from the two scummiest players alive, and quite horrible ones that boil down to "Suwako MOVED CASES and CHANGED SUSPICIONS as time passed!"  Why yes, I certainly did, this is a good thing to do, I thought that was self evident?

So your inability to go for anyone other than Kilga, utter disregard of the VgT case on D1, and general opinion of 'you guys all suck' rather than actually contributing aren't relevant?

But I guess you can never underestimate MotK Mafia. :eyeroll:

Calling Suwako as Moogy right now.

[Suwako Moriya]

Changing opinions for no discernable reason at all is bad.  This is so for your 'suspicion' against Kilga.

- Kilga got overshadowed by the rest of the day and my suspicions of him abated.  He pushed Serp so hard that I thought he might be a cop, and the countertrain that popped up, Anthony, was worse than his case.

Not explaining exactly why everything I said against you and Rou is horrible is bad.  Why, you are good and we are bad because you're not from MotK.  How infallible.

- You're still fixated on day 1 and early day 2 cases.  You think trying to play gotcha games and finding "contradictions" is a good way to find scum.  (It's not.  In fact quite the opposite.  Scum have more information than town, so it's easy for them to avoid such missteps, and adhering to these views is only going to force townies into lockstepping and being unable to change their minds or drop cases.  Eeeaaasy scum win if town buys into this.)

Thinking that I'm scummy for pushing a case on you that is supposedly 'bad' while going against your D1 creed that 'contradictions aren't necessarily scummy, scum can play protown, etc.' is horrible, even overlooking your reactionary scumhunting.

- You ARE scummy for pushing a bad case, see above.

Reactionary scumhunting is bad.

- You have not even defined what this is, let alone why it is scummy or how I am supposedly guilty of it.  The obvious definitions don't really seem to apply given that I've been making more waves and causing more action than any other single player in the game.  I was the first and most aggressive player on Angel Milk yesterday, the only person looking into you and Pesco today, and the only voice of suspicion on Kilga earlier (even though I was wrong about that.)

Not making an effort to 'grasp' our cases and happily burning self-made strawman dolls is bad.

- This doesn't even mean anything.

As to Rou...  "inability to go for anyone other than Kilga" what in the?  Affinity's trying to attack me for leaving my suspicions of Kilga behind, for crying out loud.  VgT case I disregarded because I thought scum wouldn't be that bad on day 1.  They were.  (Compare to your "scum wouldn't be that obvious" now.  They are.)  And contributing?  You're probably town, Affinity/Serp/Pesco need to get lynched, I've been saying this all day, there's probably a lurking scum somewhere (Nietz or one of the kittens?  Just offhand.)[/]

[FinnKaenbyou]

You think trying to play gotcha games and finding "contradictions" is a good way to find scum.  (It's not.  In fact quite the opposite.  Scum have more information than town, so it's easy for them to avoid such missteps, and adhering to these views is only going to force townies into lockstepping and being unable to change their minds or drop cases.  Eeeaaasy scum win if town buys into this.)
And once again, we get the age-old advice of 'scum are totally perfect, don't look for the mistakes that they might make'. If we don't point out contradictions what ARE we supposed to look for? Disregard every case that gets brought up and point fingers at the guy who's 'hanging back'?

Not making an effort to 'grasp' our cases and happily burning self-made strawman dolls is bad.

- This doesn't even mean anything.

Really? I read it as 'you write people's cases off as bad without bothering to explain why'.

As to Rou...  "inability to go for anyone other than Kilga" what in the?  Affinity's trying to attack me for leaving my suspicions of Kilga behind, for crying out loud.

I was referring to D1, choosing Kilga over VgT when Kilga was doing exactly what you were doing. Hell, he was clearing you for doing what he was doing.

VgT case I disregarded because I thought scum wouldn't be that bad on day 1.  They were.  (Compare to your "scum wouldn't be that obvious" now.  They are.)

I'm not inclined to believe that. I don't honestly put down anyone here as being poor enough to make a play like that. Appeal to Authority.

Affinity/Serp/Pesco need to get lynched,

GJ accusing about half the players.

[Sodium]

I would laugh if Suwako was Moogy.

I still think that Suwako is town, although the possibility of Suwako being a SK brought up by Kiro makes sense, and not counting the "town clear", Suwako could be a good lynch. Still, Serp is probably a better lynch over all, imo, because Suwako is either town or SK/Other Third party at this point, while Serp is town or scum (or third party, but what's the chance of that?).

Nietz: Uh, could we have some opinions on not Serp, Suwako, Roukan or Affinity? Well, that's a good portion of the players, but you haven't really said much aside from "My stance hasn't changed" and "I am interested in the reaction" today. =V

UK needs a post. Some slack for not being on MoTK at all yesterday(according to her 564), but still. And anyone else that hasn't really posted yet.

Oh, and Suwako, making waves & causing the most action=/=town. And it's possible to have done so while being reactionary.

lolModAntics. Seems fun to be a mod.

Roukan Cut: Formatting Error/10.
And 3=/=5 That'd be more valid if he listed 4 players. =V But I see your point.

[Affinity]

You ARE scummy for pushing a bad case, see above.

So why isn't Kiro scummy for pushing the Anthony case for example, which you call pitiful?  It's reactionary scumhunting because you are only singling out the people who are having these supposedly 'bad' cases against you today.  Don't think it's a coincidence.

Claiming cred for the Angel Milk case is also quite dubious and insignificant on the account that he was the obvious lynch for D2.

You're still fixated on day 1 and early day 2 cases

Would like to point out that you are yourself fixated on the early D2 case against Serp, and that you are supposedly cleared because of the result of these day 1 cases.  And moreover, just as scum would ideally not make mistakes, neither would town, as can be seen by the play of whatever higher playergroup you come from; information doesn't play a part because Rou's missteps were based on not reading info available to everyone. 

Furthermore, while I agree with you that contradictions are not necessarily scummy by themselves, they still have to be clarified and distilled, which was what I was doing on D2, to gain something coherent.  Roukanken is scummy precisely because of the result of that distillation, which amounted to nothing, because he was pushing cases whose premises were non-existent.  It could be taken as active lurking; the reason why you are overlooking it is because it's too scummy to be scummy, which is itself a fallacy.

---

@Sodium:

I still think that Suwako is town, although the possibility of Suwako being a SK brought up by Kiro makes sense, and not counting the "town clear", Suwako could be a good lynch. Still, Serp is probably a better lynch over all, imo, because Suwako is either town or SK/Other Third party at this point, while Serp is town or scum (or third party, but what's the chance of that?).

Fallacious reasoning.  Consider probabilities, not just the possibilities. 

[Suwako Moriya]

The definition of scum is that they have more information than town!  Certainly, look for mistakes they may make, but that's nowhere near as simple as looking for "contradictions" that town can make just as (or more) easily.  Look for behavior indicating a player is part of an informed minority trying to avoid their group's lynch.

Three players is neither "half" nor an unreasonable number to be looking at given that there are probably three scum left alive.

The case on Serp has remained valid in its fundamentals through every further post he's made, as opposed to other early cases which fade away as they do not continue to be supportable by the evolution of the game. 

Rou's playing terribly and contributing basically nothing of worth (by his own admission, not trying to be inflammatory here) but that doesn't automatically make him scummy.  He doesn't look like part of an informed minority trying to avoid lynch.  I'm about 90% on him being town, and if he is scum after all he's played this remarkably and my legendary hat is off to him.  Don't think so though.

The players I haven't been mentioning have all done scummy things - by day 3 of a mafia game, everyone has.  They're just not top priorities for me because others are scummiER.  Kiro is scummy for pushing Anthony, sure, but Kiro isn't also tied to Pesco and hasn't made crazytown arguments.  I was hopping on Affinity/Pesco before Affinity decided to turn and start seriously arguing to lynch me.

As for probabilities... well, you're arguing that I'm either a scumbuddy of VGT or an SK.  With me pulling this amount of attention to myself.  If I was either of those things this would be pretty much the worst play ever.  I've knowingly put myself in constant discussion of lynch and high probability of getting investigated by a cop or killed by a vig, because I've been expressing unpopular opinions that I nonetheless believe are right and the best things to pitch if town's going to win this.  If I was scum of any sort I could have easily turned off the grandstanding, toned down the rhetoric, pitched in on cases quietly and blended in like a dirty Kanako-loving snake.  Also I'm hit with votelessness, so in your theories that'd mean I'm either voteblocking myself (insane, as it would put me at even greater risk of being lynched) or I'm the SK and being voteblocked by scum (indicating they think I'm a threat, exactly the same as if I was town, so...)  If you really want to believe in some crazy gambit that's your right (well, you're probably pitching it as scum, but so't goes) but presenting it as a probability?

Half the town isn't talking.  That's bad.  We need 6 of 9 voters to agree to actually lynch so there's going to have to be a compromise somewhere.  (This is also why the voteblocking is bad times and a scummy as heck power.)

[Affinity]

Quickpost: Just clarifying that I'm asking Sodium to elaborate on the probabilities of whether Suwako is SK or town and whether Serp is scum or town instead of just stating the number of possibilities.  It's a little like the Pascal's Wager fallacy in a way.

The problem with the above scumhunting philosophy is that scum can easily turn it around; deliberately act like an idiot, push bad cases with premises non-existent, and you won't get lynched with the above logic, turning this into a case of infinite regress.  This is a familiar line of 'I'm not scummy because if I were scum, I wouldn't be doing this at all', which I think is WIFOM.  Moreover, while I agree with you for looking for things that point to a person being part of an informed majority, pesco's 'crazytown' arguments don't seem to constitute that at all.  Would like you to explain your case against pesco more clearly.

[Kiro]

Got caught up playing Tenhou (mahjong) so my reread is only half done. Gonna sleep on this and finish it up in the morning.

[Pesco]

Rou's pulling himself together now (maybe going home has some use albeit short term). I'm inclined to give him some redemption for it.

Kiro: What do you say to the chance of Serp being the SK? For meta reference, Touhou Remix.

Serp: How were you so sure that you were not going to be NK'd?

Nietz: Don't like to scumhunt much?

- Serp should have been lynched yesterday, Anthony being pushed over him was BS (and the Angel Milk modkill was botched horribly but there's nothing to do about that except shake fists at Edible. This rings no bells to anyone?

- Scum are being quite obvious with their killing and voteblocking patterns, taking out the intelligent players (UU, Kilga) and throwing voteblocks on the people they want lynched (Anthony, me).  This rings no bells to anyone?

There's no response I can make to Rou's "case" on me because it is not really a case, as he himself has said.  I beg reconsideration.  Serp's and Affinity's at least have arguments... albeit from the two scummiest players alive, and quite horrible ones that boil down to "Suwako MOVED CASES and CHANGED SUSPICIONS as time passed!"  Why yes, I certainly did, this is a good thing to do, I thought that was self evident?

I don't recall you making enough effort to convince us to lynch Serp yesterday. If were so against Anthony's lynch, you certainly weren't speaking up enough about it.

How sweet the WIFOM. I guess that makes you a dumb player since you haven't been NK'd and you got voteblocked.

I don't see why you can dismiss Rou's case like this. You've played vague all game, so fess up. Day 1 you didn't want to talk much, but by now we expect you to step up the content.

While you're there, give us a wall on both Kittens and Nietz. Maybe sexist bias should be scummy too .

I'll try get a readup on UK, K4U, Nietz and Affinity later today.

[Sodium]

*Insert "If I were scum" WIFOM defense here*

-_-

---
Affinity: Well, I think that Serp has a greater chance of being scum then town, and when I made my post previously, I thought Suwako had a greater chance of being town then 3rd party(SK, etc.). Uh, the fact he's trying to defend with "NO SCUM WOULD PLAY LIKE I DID"(WHEEE WIFOM!), and his general defense is poor, is making me reconsider.

But the thing is is that scum still wouldn't let 2 scumwagons run on Day 1, so scum probably thought that Suwako was town or something, and I'm pretty sure possible scum(Serp) have lynching priority over possible SK. Unless I'm missing something that completely negates the Day 1 Suwako "clear"(I don't really think Suwako's play negates it).
---

THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO NEED TO TALK. LIKE THE KITTENS. A SERP & ACTUAL NIETZ CONTENT WOULD BE FINE TOO.

[FinnKaenbyou]

The definition of scum is that they have more information than town!  Certainly, look for mistakes they may make, but that's nowhere near as simple as looking for "contradictions" that town can make just as (or more) easily.  Look for behavior indicating a player is part of an informed minority trying to avoid their group's lynch.

For example,  trying to argue that one of their fellow members shouldn't be lynched? Which you did on D1 with VgT?

Three players is neither "half" nor an unreasonable number to be looking at given that there are probably three scum left alive.

I'm more irritated in that you gave three people to lynch with no preference to any of them. Like you said, we need to compromise the votes somewhere down the line.

The case on Serp has remained valid in its fundamentals through every further post he's made, as opposed to other early cases which fade away as they do not continue to be supportable by the evolution of the game.

To throw your own words back at you, explain how Serp's play represents a player in an informed minority trying to avoid their lynch. He's either town tunneling you because he's got a good reason to suspect you, or he's scum tunneling to keep you in the clear. Since it's the main reason suspicion is falling on him, I'm of the opinion that Scum!Serp would have taken back his suspicions of you around the start of D2.

Rou's playing terribly and contributing basically nothing of worth (by his own admission, not trying to be inflammatory here)

So you admit to being inflammatory every other time?

As for probabilities... well, you're arguing that I'm either a scumbuddy of VGT or an SK.  With me pulling this amount of attention to myself.  If I was either of those things this would be pretty much the worst play ever.

WIFOM.

I've knowingly put myself in constant discussion of lynch and high probability of getting investigated by a cop or killed by a vig

Godfather.

If I was scum of any sort I could have easily turned off the grandstanding, toned down the rhetoric, pitched in on cases quietly and blended in like a dirty Kanako-loving snake.

WIFOM.

Also I'm hit with votelessness, so in your theories that'd mean I'm either voteblocking myself (insane, as it would put me at even greater risk of being lynched) or I'm the SK and being voteblocked by scum (indicating they think I'm a threat, exactly the same as if I was town, so...)

WIFOM.

But the thing is is that scum still wouldn't let 2 scumwagons run on Day 1, so scum probably thought that Suwako was town or something, and I'm pretty sure possible scum(Serp) have lynching priority over possible SK. Unless I'm missing something that completely negates the Day 1 Suwako "clear"(I don't really think Suwako's play negates it).

GODDAMN FREAKING WIFOM.
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but in retrospect Day 1 was too easy. VgT and Suwako tried too hard to stand out, almost like they wanted to be lynched.

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count: This Looks Familiar
Serpentarius (4): Kiro, Sodium, Kitten4U, Nietz
Suwako Moriya (3): Serpentarius, Roukanken, Affinity
Roukanken (1): pesco

Not voting: UncertainKitten, Suwako Moriya

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. You have >25 hours remaining.

[Pesco]

Nothing particularly outstanding from K4U, looks like a pro-town Nietz equivalent.

There's still some people I should read better, but right now I'm pretty much set on Anthony, Serp and Rou in order of suspicions. Anthony's voteblock drama put him ahead, though I would be fine with the others as well.

##Vote Anthony

Something doesn't feel right over here. The best words I can think of to put it in is that Nietz made the vote without much reasoning ('voteblock stunt' as the main thrust). Checking his posts of today, Affinity was not a suspect from yesterday. So where does it come from?

I think a fresh post from UK will be more conclusive than rereading her masses of PBPAs.

The meat of Affinity's post that I've read through are back and forth between him and Rou. Don't really know what to think right now. Gut from here has been nagging in my mind to do this reread and I can't pin anything down.

##Unvote
##Vote Nietz

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count: Why Do People Insist On Voting Right After A Vote Count Is Posted?
Serpentarius (4): Kiro, Sodium, Kitten4U, Nietz
Suwako Moriya (3): Serpentarius, Roukanken, Affinity
Nietz (1): pesco

Not voting: UncertainKitten, Suwako Moriya

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. You have >22 hours remaining.

[Kiro]

After this hellish reread (got really irritated by the mid of Day 2 and started zooming through the rest of it), here are my impressions of parties of interest right now:

---

Rou: I don't think he's Mafia. Starting up a Day 1 Suwako wagon, regardless of Suwako's alignment to save VgT is inefficient. In regards to the Night 2 NKs, while he might be the most likely to be a Town Vig due to being suspicious of Zakeri, the way he half breaks down in the middle of Day 3 is not consistent with someone who is a Town Power Role who might be asked to roleclaim at L-1. Given that, there is some chance he's an SK, as he went out of the way to pursue Suwako for possible Towncred. But at this point, the SK is lower priority and we're not certain yet if it is one. Another night with 2 kills would at least eliminate a Mafia vig as that's overpowered which is what I'd like to check first. Given overall play from the game, I'd lean Town more than SK. In other words, not worth lynching today.

---

Serp: During the reread, he is amazingly consistent with his thoughts on Suwako. His #222 vote on Suwako states he goes understands the idea of being concise, but Suwako goes beyond that and punctuates it with a comment later that what Suwako is doing might be weird as Scum, it's weirder as Town which is quite accurate when I get to the Suwako section. I can see Town Serp tunneling and Scum Serp not tunneling on Suwako from Day 2 on which is making me wary of lynching him right now. And his questions to me regarding how the Suwako wagon could be made up of all Townies is a good question. As for whether he's an SK, tunneling on Suwako keeps everyone's eyes on him which is no good. And he did say he didn't expect to die on Night 2 which suggests he might be bulletproof SK or does not expect a Vig to exist. Problem is that if he were the SK, I don't know why he'd toss that out. Seems more like an offhand comment. The choice of Zakeri also works against him as it subconsciously pins the likely Day 3 lynch to be himself. In essence, I think he's less likely to be an SK than Rou, but also a little less likely to be Town than Rou if that makes any sense.

Spoiler:

None of this game makes sense anymore.

---

Suwako: Behavior is too weird to be straight forward Town. Scummy points against him include being willing to vote VgT in #158, but never doing so in all of Day 1. Keeps vote on throwaway Pesco, then Kilga and fails to move his vote to a meaningful wagon by the end of Day 1 which is anti-Town behavior and he was not opposed to the VgT lynch. Day 2 doesn't contribute much other than the vote for Tenshi.

Still down with Serp lynch too, it's still a good case even though it seems a bit mutually exclusive with the Affinity one.  At least one of them is just a terrible townie but I ain't really up for betting on which, kill both.

Affinity/Serp/Pesco need to get lynched, I've been saying this all day, there's probably a lurking scum somewhere (Nietz or one of the kittens?  Just offhand.)

If you want anti-Towness and contradictions, read those two above. Your idea of an existing lurking scum also contradicts your top 3 choices who have had content today. I don't care if you don't have a real vote, who do you think is best for today's lynch? You have not been helpful all game which is anti-Townie. And your defense as has been pointed out is pretty much WIFOM "Scum wouldn't do this" type arguments. You're also picking at minor things in your Pesco and Affinity case (Pesco says voteblocker could be Town, Affinity is mudslinging or something) which doesn't differentiate them from being Town or Scum.

---

Given that I have a Townie impression of Rou, an improving Townie impression of Serp, and on reread, a decent opinion of Affinity's actions through the game, I could fully see Town getting fortunate and actually bringing up 2 legit Scum wagons. Suwako as Scum may or may not have planned such a gambit, but with the way he's acting from the very beginning of the game, I really don't see him as any type of Townie right now.

In terms of responses to this development, Nietz has a bystander comment which reinforces gut suspicion that there may be something to this after all. I don't disapprove of Pesco's vote for Nietz at the moment. Lack of comments from other people is weird, especially a complete lack of contribution from UK in Day 3. I know CPMC is a fun place, but you're seriously slacking here. Not sure how to actually read Sodium's opinion on this topic. Could be scum covering or Townie obviously believing that and is neutral. At least a little better than Nietz' waffle.

Getting pushed off the computer now. May be willing to switch to Nietz as well, but I think Suwako is scummy and to get a better impression of a variety of people who have quieted down, I feel we should get this flip now.

##Unvote Serpentarius
##Vote Suwako Moriya

[Nietz]

Ok, cutting straight to the point, I saw Serpentarius target Zakeri last night. Serp is obviously not a doctor or voteblocker, and there's nothing from him that even vaguely suggests an intent to vig or investigate Zak.
Plus, his play has been consistently scummy in view of the flips so far, and to make matters worse he is avoiding posting (which is apparently working in driving attention away for him).
So yes, I'm staying on him.

[Serp]

- You're still fixated on day 1 and early day 2 cases.  You think trying to play gotcha games and finding "contradictions" is a good way to find scum.  (It's not.  In fact quite the opposite.  Scum have more information than town, so it's easy for them to avoid such missteps, and adhering to these views is only going to force townies into lockstepping and being unable to change their minds or drop cases.  Eeeaaasy scum win if town buys into this.)

The key to this tell is that the town is trying to find scum, and its players are supposed to air their thought process in public, while scum is just trying to look like they're scumhunting, and so they have to lie abuot their thought process.  Sudden switches in opinion without a valid reason then look like scum either covering for a buddy, trying to get an easier mislynch, or just forgetting what they're supposed to have believed.  It's a mistake that townies can make, but scum are more likely to make it.

Serp: How were you so sure that you were not going to be NK'd?

Well, I wasn't "sure," but since just about everyone had listed me as a secondary lynch, and an Anthony or Tenshi scumflip would only have made me look worse (by making Suwako look better,), I was counting on scum considering me the obvious D3 mislynch and going after someone that the town was less likely to take care of for them.

But the thing is is that scum still wouldn't let 2 scumwagons run on Day 1

Did you miss the part where I directly addressed this point? :V  The D1 Suwako wagon is looking more townie with every lynch.  Maybe scum decided to make the best of it and pile on VgameT, aiming for a Suwako clear.

Cut by Nietz:  Well, that makes sense.  Roleclaim time.  I'm a vig who can only hit targets on evenly numbered nights.  This is why I might have come across as a bit nonchalant in my choice between Suwako and Tenshi - whichever one was lynched, I was ready to vig the other that night.  However, during my N2 reread, I decided that Zakeri was scummy for his D2 conduct in a similar way to how Suwako was scummy for his D1 conduct.  I was also having second thoughts about the Suwako case itself - it was quite possible that I had piled onto the Suwako bandwagon alongside scum, and if any of them were scum, I figured it would be Zakeri.

So, care to tell us who you watched N1?

[Pesco]

Seconding N1 results before I decide to switch or not.

[Suwako Moriya]

Yaaay misdefining WIFOM too.  WIFOM only applies in a 50-50 situation and is useful to show that said 50/50s are meaningless to discuss.  But if you put a pile of gold next to one of the winecups and say the person drinking it gets the gold, that isn't WIFOM, nor is it pointless to discuss.  When we're talking about behavior that isn't a coinflip - for example, scum voteblocking one of their own or drawing attention to themselves - those aren't 50-50s, they have clear factual disadvantages.

And no kidding I didn't push Serp yesterday, I was pushing Angel Milk.

Buuut we have this here roleclaimness now.

And.... ugh.  I'm not sure what to think about it.  If Serp were scum, or an SK trying to save his own skin, Zakeri is a pretty illogical target compared to Kilga. 

I... actually think I believe him.  Nietz as well, for being able to point out Serp killed Zak specifically. 

So that pulls me back to Affinity/Pesco, and then the Kiro/Kittens/Sodium pile.  Watch them, hard. 

[UncertainJakutten]

UK is back from a journey that started 4 AM my time. I see I have things to read, and while I'd really rather not I agreed to play.

[Kiro]

Heh, I didn't consider the possibility of Serp himself being a Vig. As far as that choice:

---

If Serp is a Mafia Vig: Then the Zakeri kill is standard reduction of numbers while at the same time coordinated with the Kilga kill, places himself in the forefront. And he continues the Suwako pursuit which is gutsy. Either he'd be lynched and Suwako gets a further clear which is good for Town if Suwako is Town or devestating for Town if Suwako is Scum. Or (as the latest developments might suggest), we lynch Suwako. If Suwako flips Town, that kind of ensures the Serp lynch will follow which is a terrible strategy for Scum as it is a 1:1 trade when they reasonably did not need one. If Suwako flips Mafia, we may leave Serp alone and he rides clear in Suwako's place.

If Serp is an SK: See above, but increases the chance of him dying which is bad for such a role. Like I said earlier, less likely to be SK, but could be an application of extreme WIFOM although I'm not seeing why SK Serp would tunnel on Suwako.

If Serp is a Town Vig: Obviously, he's not going to vig himself so I missed that aspect. Cold feet on Suwako is possible because if he were wrong (which Town Serp could genuinely feel), then Serp is all but lynched on Day 3 which is not optimal for him or for Town even if he roleclaimed Vig. Somewhat reasonable on the Zakeri choice as his vote on Serp was kind of a throwaway and kind of minimalist. And an Even Night vig... maybe. It's not unheard of.

---

Coinciding with Nietz coming out with a Track, my first impression is that Serp and Nietz are not a scumpair. Why Nietz would out his scumbuddy in this scenario makes little sense as it either loses a Town Suwako mislynch or it damages any Towncred Scum Serp would have earned with a Scum Suwako lynch. I'm a bit neutral on Nietz' roleclaim, it could go either way although him not saying what his N1 track was is a red flag. But the only way Nietz can confidently finger Serp for a night action is that he is that role, knows someone with that role (only applies if he's Scum with a fellow Tracker), or they're both buddies and playing it openly as a Mafia Tracker and Mafia Vig. Or independently, Serp is an SK and we can't verify whether killers are required to kill every night.

I think all things considered, I believe Serp is telling the truth. His actions fit with his words imo. Nietz could be Scum or not, but part of that is dependent on Suwako's flip. Town Vig Serp obviously presents a problem to Scum as he's potentially dangerous to leave alive, but killing him at Night loses out on a mislynch opportunity.

Nietz: Given Serp's roleclaim now, what do you actually think Serp is?

Cut by Suwako: Scum voteblocking themselves is not necessarily a tactical disadvantage. Town wants to lynch someone everyday. If the number of voters is reduced, it makes that more difficult and requires more coordination and if the Scum stay stubborn on a wagon or don't show up near deadline, the Townies are forced to switch lynches, potentially to their disadvantage which Scum can possibly manipulate. As for drawing attention to yourself, VgT did it and Anthony/Tenshi did it and they were different alignments. Tell me how you should be above this or that you actually weren't drawing attention to yourself. I think several people would disagree on the latter. And a token statement to go back to Affinity/Pesco is not scumhunting. I don't care if you don't have a vote today, we're running out of time today so answer Affinity's questions and convince us he or Pesco is the better lynch for today. Also, why is Nietz clear? Scum can have trackers.

[Pesco]

Should be enough time for me to change my vote if needed before deadline.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Friend's computer = hijacked.

ScumVig!Serp feels heavily unlikely, since if he was scum Zak was one of the last people he'd be wanting to hit. To be honest, given his insistence on going for Suwako in the face of adversity, I was tempted to say he was a cop with a guilty result on the frog, but yeah. :/

Nietz claim is...hmm. I don't understand what Town!Nietz would gain from revealing Serp given that all the result proved was that he was either Town!Vig or SK. Want to know his N1 result since he's come out and claimed.

Yaaay misdefining WIFOM too.  WIFOM only applies in a 50-50 situation and is useful to show that said 50/50s are meaningless to discuss.  But if you put a pile of gold next to one of the winecups and say the person drinking it gets the gold, that isn't WIFOM, nor is it pointless to discuss.  When we're talking about behavior that isn't a coinflip - for example, scum voteblocking one of their own or drawing attention to themselves - those aren't 50-50s, they have clear factual disadvantages.

Yaaaay misdefining WIFOM again. The basis of WIFOM is saying something along the lines of 'Scum want me to think A, so I'll think B, but then if they KNOW I'd jump to be they'd make B the lie, so I should go back to A, but then if I go back to that...' and so on ad infinitum.
Even in your case it applies. The gold is simply another factor to consider - would your opponent put the poison in the wine with the gold to punish your greed? Would he place it in the other glass to second-guess you? Would he second-guess your second-guessing and put it in front of the gold again? In the end, it's still 50-50 in terms of which glass the poison is in.

Need to hear from the Kittens and Sodium. Mainly the former pair. >_>

[Nietz]

Even Night Vig sounds a plausible role, I would say. But Zakeri as a target seems very fishy coming from Serp. There was no sign of Zak suspicion from him beforehand, and no crumbing afterwards indicating that he had any suspicion of Zak before his death.
I don't see why would a Town Serp suddenly want to vig Zakeri, whose flip would tell very little, to Suwako, whose lynch he's been trying to push, and who was the alternate lynch to scum VgT on Day 1.
Besides, if he could give up on Suwako for fear that he might flip Town, why not be equally afraid of Zakeri flipping Town?

Nietz claim is...hmm. I don't understand what Town!Nietz would gain from revealing Serp given that all the result proved was that he was either Town!Vig or SK. Want to know his N1 result since he's come out and claimed.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that he was scum doing the NK?

And N1 I tracked Affinity, who targeted no one. Though that obviously doesn't mean he's cleared.

[UncertainJakutten]

I'm reminded of that one time when I said Rou was gullible enough to NK Kilga. I really feel like voting Rou right now.

Sounds like a good idea far as I remember

##Vote Roukanken

Your wall unimpresses me. It's basically stuff that's already been said, and just jumping on the scummy people already established.

Sodium 540 puts me ill at ease as well.

Kitten 541 is...decent I guess.

And...Suwako lacks a vote. Interesting.

Oh hey, I didn't know Affinity played Umineko

And his post IS actually a decent view of scuminess in this game. A lot of original thought.

I don't see "WELL YOU'RE DOING IT TOO" from Affinity, but I do need to check on that VgT thing eventually

Suwako 549 tastes like OMGUS

K4u 550 is decent

553. I know I'll have to justify it as well. My idea mostly goes on the fact it's parroting the cases, not even really putting anything new on the table

557 isn't good, but I won't press it since I think Rou is genuinely feeling down. Whether it's cause he got caught as scum or not I don't know

561 feels really bad

As for Rou, I don't see anything scummy in his D1 conduct.

Not even his rampant CHHHHEEEEEEEEEENNNNNSAAAAAAAAW?

565 actually opens decent reasoning I think...the problem is with the Anthony wagon as a strong rival...well...it would make more sense than going for Suwa scum

Suwako: Elaborate. Why is the Rou case BS, as I'm kinda one of the champions of it and absolutely not mentioned by you

Suwa 576: To be fair, I've been working for most of the time I've been gone

Suwa 580 is horrible. "If I were scum WIFOM"

Just no

And Nietz claim leads me to be...intrigued. Suddenly Serpy SK is more likely.

And serpy 591 is his only move...I have to think...because I remember Serpy being only a little less scummy than Rou, and I'm STILL not getting a Rou lynch...

If Serp is a Town Vig: Obviously, he's not going to vig himself so I missed that aspect. Cold feet on Suwako is possible because if he were wrong (which Town Serp could genuinely feel), then Serp is all but lynched on Day 3 which is not optimal for him or for Town even if he roleclaimed Vig. Somewhat reasonable on the Zakeri choice as his vote on Serp was kind of a throwaway and kind of minimalist. And an Even Night vig... maybe. It's not unheard of.

ACtually, this might be the best way to test his claim...but can we afford to wait?

Kiro has a good point on Nietz, who I eventually need to reread

Hmm...

I can't really get behind a Suwako lynch at this point because I believe Rou is scum, and it's quite likely Suwa is town with scum Rou...and I'm seriously considering having Serpy vig himself for his next shot. Best way to deal with it if we can afford the time...Rou STILL is getting to live, which galls me...but yeah...

If you absolutely need my vote to lynch Suwako, I'll do it...same with Serpy. In fact, I'd be more enthusiastic about Serpy, though I prefer testing his claim.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that he was scum doing the NK?

Fair point. Notice Suwa assumed that the scum kill was Kilga as well...I kinda got lured into this trap as well...hmm...