POS Mafia Day5 Game Over

[Nat Tea]

This is a bit of a dilemma.

To say the least, I apologize for my previous behavior. Now, to assess,

Sakana -
As of I, but we are not always correct. However, my vote was on the change of judgement; I still do not think that NeoSerela is at all scum. You did target MSB before her death though beforehand. A late present to him?

Roukoukan -
I predict that you do not trust me anymore, that's understandable. As I said before, a change of judgement on my part moved my vote.

Alice -
Strangely, the only things I've seen from you are observations and of nothing else. Maybe a clever ruse or just a bystander?

Kefit -
You're like Alice, rather precise. I do not suspect you since your opinion did sway me to voting Nietz in the first place.

NeoSerela -
You don't really make sense a lot of times, but this game? It doesn't look like it'd help scum in any way.

I'm probably wrong and people will correct, but you people should follow up anyways.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Okay, that situation is looking horrible.

This is a bit of a dilemma.

Potential scum boasting is noted.

Honestly though, I'm not sure if a Sakana/Choja pair is that viable given that Sakana's ED1 vote was on Choja for no good reason when there was real discussion going on. I'm sold on Sakana though given that he's been in scummy positioning for two Townie wagons and has offered little in terms of contribution.
I'm considering a Sakana/Alice pair atm. Considering the way Alice has shimmied his way around the Sakana case - commenting how terrible he is twice in D2, in these two posts, but still with several people well out in front in terms of suspicion.

[Serela]

Rou, voting eachother at the beginning of D1 isn't something that makes them any less likely to be scum together. Last game, I actually used that to support my case of huh what being one of Zakeri's scumbuddies; and hey, I was right! Granted, the way it was last game was a lot more significant then it is this game.

Not saying it actually makes them look any scummier, though. It's pretty insubstantial in any case, especially with what it is this game, and we don't have a flip on either of them to support it.

Regardless of who their scumbuddy is, I think MSB pretty much hit the nail on the head. I think Sakana looks more guilty about this particular situation though, seeing as Choja's been really derpy throughout the whole game anyway; still, after that fiasco, I think I could go with the idea of Choja!scum as well. Fairly positive at least one of them must be scum, if not both, and leaning more towards Sakana.

[FinnKaenbyou]

One thing I think needs to get brought out into the open now: if whoever has been putting out these second NKs is Town, now is the time to own up.

[Nat Tea]

if whoever has been putting out these second NKs is Town, now is the time to own up.

Hello.

Ask me any questions.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Hello.

Ask me any questions.

Fullclaim. Now.

[Nat Tea]

I am a fantastic crazy drunk hobo.

No one can kill me at night (first, because I have no address, and secondly, I'm hard to notice) and I can break into people's houses and kill anyone I want in my stupor with my sharp broken bottle. It's pointy.

Mindfully, because I'm constantly inebriated, I do not give a damn about who I kill as long as I'm the only one standing. Key word, only. Because everyone else is more insane than me and needs to die.

Thre's kind of a problem right no with that:. LyLo.

[FinnKaenbyou]

...Did you just claim serial killer? :|

Anyway, as is you now have no reason to disobey Town's orders if you want a chance of winning. If today brings around a scum lynch, do not kill as it will ruin your chance of winning. If a Townie is lynched, shoot into the crowd or scum will win - and as a consequence, whether you're Town or SK, you will lose.

Now very sold on Sakana/Alice, because Choja's hurrr play makes perfect sense for a third-party.

[Serela]

...yeah, protip, if you aren't town then YOU DON'T WANT TO TELL PEOPLE THAT. Third party survivor is an exception, I suppose, but being an SK is nearly as bad as being Scum, in that it's an anti-town role that will kill people every night.

[Nat Tea]

...yeah, protip, if you aren't town then YOU DON'T WANT TO TELL PEOPLE THAT.

I do know that, but even if I just gave a small description of my role without that bit, Rou would have figured out my true role anyways.

Now very sold on Sakana/Alice, because Choja's hurrr play makes perfect sense for a third-party.

Truthfully, I have already lost, so I might as well cut Town's losses and maybe even revenge comeback scum and get Town to claim the win for this game.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Alice -
Strangely, the only things I've seen from you are observations and of nothing else. Maybe a clever ruse or just a bystander?

Clearly you missed my giant post with several cases and a vote in it? I haven't been posting as much as I should have, but I certainly have not been reporter'ing.

Kefit -
You're like Alice, rather precise. I do not suspect you since your opinion did sway me to voting Nietz in the first place.

Now, while NEETz flipping Town does not imply Scum-Kefit, I'm somewhat puzzled by how Kefit swaying you to vote NEETz implies Town-Kefit if NEETz did not flip Town.

That being said, I'm willing to believe you being SK, considering that you'd be the ideal person for this sort of derp-play, and yeah. Roukanken has already covered all the instructions for you to do, kindly please follow them.

Anyway, Roukan, the reason I wound up putting several people in front of the Sakana case is that, y'know, at the time, there were several people whom I thought looked Scummier than Sakana? Before the last-minute NEETz rush the main things against him seemed to be Day 1 iffiness, which, while bad, was not as bad as that of say, Sodium Bromide's, and that was mainly it. I'll have to do a full reread before I give an opinion in general and a vote for today, though.

Current suspicion list is looking a bit like Sakana > Roukanken/Ecthel > NeoSerela > Kefit, and I'm going to buy Choja's claim of Derp-SK for now. (And before you get on my case how I didn't think that Sakana used to look bad but now I do, we've had three more flips since then, so yeah).

[Pesco]

Evening Hour of the Ox

Voting

Kefit (0):
Nat Tea (0):
Moe Moe Sakanespierre (0):
NeoSerela (0):
?lice Bl?ckb?rn (0):
Roukanken (0):

Not Voting: Everyone

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in many hours

[Dead Princess Sakana]

Alright, time for some strategy. I could try to write up original cases right now, but chances to convince someone with the current case on my are next to none. So I'm going to do what I find most reasonable:

I've looked through all the cases that have been made by the players who are now dead and confirmed Town. If the accumulated opinions of those dead people are not going to give any hints, then I don't know what will. I'll place my faith in that strategy.

The results are pretty clear.

Number one suspect across the board is NeoSerela.
I'm especially relying on Zakeri's case here, that he had from D1 onward and which wasn't shaken by anything NS did. Nietz, huh what and MSB also had cases against NS.
Me dropping my suspicions against NS now seems like the greatest of my mistakes, and I'm pretty much convinced that his lynch will be the right course.

As for a scum-buddy, both the analysis and my own thoughts highly suggest that it is Ecthel/Rou.
Cases on Ecthel have been made a few times, and it was Zakeri that stated that MSB and Ecthel are most likely of opposite alignment, a statement which I'm going to believe in and which leaves only the conclusion of Roukanken being scum.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Alright, two responses.

@Alice - I'm unconvinced by your reasoning. Looking at your post just after the Morning Hour of the Dog, you basically say 'oh my god everyone other than Kefit and Zak is terrible'. No sign of seeing Sakana as better/worse than anyone else, and a post of 'everyone sucks' doesn't do anything productive. I got called out for it in Haruhi D2, and guess what? I was scum that game.

@Sakana - Yes, Zak's case on Neo. Never mind that his last post just before The Dog Hour was him pressing at you, and he wasn't around to switch votes when people thought the Neo case was getting too aggressive. Also DEAD TOWN ARE NOT ALWAYS RIGHT WHY ARE YOU ARGUING THIS.

We need more Kefit. Right now, though, very very sold on SakanAlice.

[Serela]

a post of 'everyone sucks' doesn't do anything productive. I got called out for it in Haruhi D2, and guess what? I was scum that game.

Oh, that was yet another one of the things I used as evidence on scum!huhwhat last game

Lurking itself isn't a reason against Alice since he always lurks, which is pretty annoying, and results in stuff like Motk Mafioso Mafia where out of all the lurkers, Alice, who was the only townie lurker, was lynched for LAL. It's great meta for when you get to be scum for a game, but otherwise, it can hurt the town you're supposed to be helping.

The case against Alice seems fairly small atm, but what's there so far isn't bad. Still, as things are now, I definitely would prefer a Sakana lynch first.

[Serela]

EBWOP:Realizing I made a kind of awkward jump out of nowhere when takling about Alice. My first sentence is basically going "Judging from my past experiences, this observation is one that works, so I agree". The paragraph afterwards is addressing a point made against Alice earlier and not really related to what I quoted from Rou, although I kinda forgot to mention the slight change of subject there.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

Crap, due to unforseen IRL factors I won't be available at all until approximately this time again tomorrow. I assume that because it's LYLO we get some degree of more time, and if not, I would like to request that right now. Thanks.

Apologies to everyone about this, but at the same time everything should be resolved by tomorrow, so yeah.

[Dead Princess Sakana]

Also DEAD TOWN ARE NOT ALWAYS RIGHT WHY ARE YOU ARGUING THIS.

I'm not arguing it, where do you get this from?

But I think simply ignoring everything they have done until they died is wrong. Mafia is a team game, so why ignore what my team has generated up to this point?

Chances to hit right are definitely increased by including everything they have left us, that is my opinion.

To clarify my standpoint, I'm in fact more sold on Rou as scum than on Neo. For that reason, my preferred lynch for today is definitely Rou. His shooting against a single Town target without even considering possibilities is as scummy as it can get.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Sakana: It is INCREDIBLY easy for scum to take dead!Town reasoning and use it for their own if they know they're wrong. In using other people's answers you've subsequently done no work yourself, and regurgitated the case of someone else so you can hide behind the defense of 'a Townie agrees with me!'

And explain to me what you mean by 'shooting against a single Town target without even considering possibilities'. Do you see anyone here arguing that you're Town? Your accusation on me is blatant OMGUS.

##Vote: Sakana

We're in Mylo. We have a vote to spare. Choja has no reason to joint win with scum. I'm 100% sold on Sakana as scum. Therefore I'm dropping my vote right now, and it'll take a miracle to move me from it.

I find the lack of Kefit disturbing, though.

[Nat Tea]

Alice: It was a bit of a fluff post to distract people from suspecting me, although you did catch me stumbling on your analysis. If I didn't say anything about my role after it (and thus halt the facade), I would assume you'd predict I was scum and accidently get myself ousted.

Thank you for trusting me on what role I've said and all.

However, I'm still waiting on what Kefit has to say about all this.

[Nat Tea]

EBWOP:

* you'd predict I was scum as well and accidently get myself ousted with Rou/Neo/Sakana backing up the evidence.

[Kefit]

Sorry for the absence. I've been dealing with graduation and related affairs, and I've been prioritizing those matters since Pesco announced LyLo and what I interpret as a 144 hour day period.

Thoughts in increasing order of suspicion:

Choja - I've approached the LyLo announcement from every direction I can think of, and have concluded that his claim is solid.

Alice - Providing sensible cases and the d2 post length slip-up still screams town to me. Low on my suspicion list.

Neo: Still looks like crap. A late joiner to both d1 and d2 lynch bandwagons, along with everything pointed out against him d2. More recently, has been guilty of trying to keep alive a weak case on Alice. People, there really isn't much point on keeping a case alive if you don't place your vote on it. It does nothing but eat up words.

Sakana: A late joiner on both the d1 and d2 bandwagons. His attempt at strategy instead of making a real case, at this point in the game, is simply dumb. It's a lack of contribution disguised as an attempt to "figure things out" I guess. Could easily be trying to bus one of his scum buddies (Rou or Neo) before what he perceives is an imminent lynch.

Rou: In addition to looking bad on d1, this day he has used a lot of posts to extract a claim from Choja. This is a process that could have been done by either scum or town, and that benefits both of them. Then he responds to a couple of cases without bothering to present his own. Then votes Sakana after an accusation of OMGUS - reminds me of his behavior back in Haruhi mafia (where he was scum), as does his general aggressiveness this day.

##Vote:Rou. Probably buddies with either Sakana or Neo.

[Serela]

"has been guilty of trying to keep alive a weak case on Alice. isn't much point on keeping a case alive if you don't place your vote on it"
I wasn't voting because... you know, it's LyLo? Well,  MyLo so having a single vote on someone=fine, but still. I'm a lot more convinced about Sakana being scum then Alice, not voting someone I'm not trying to get lynched atm.

I addressed Alice!case because Rou's been talking about Sakana/Alice scumpair for all of D3, and considering we've only got 4 Aliceposts to look at (before today), I think the case doesn't look all that bad. I mean, in addition to "everyone sucks post", which lets him go after whoever he wants next, he didn't even use his D1 vote. What? Come to think of it, Alice hardly did anything worth noting on D1, and didn't even post during the headcrabs fiasco.

Kefit's RouThoughts are interesting. Most of the points I don't think look as scummy as Kefit does, but only by a differing point of view. Aggressive point of view; points look valid. More forgiving point of view; Rou justified his worse looking actions with stuff he did already; when he "doesn't present own cases", he was cracking down on cases presented by Alice and Sakana, who ARE his cases, so criticizing their actions is a way in itself of presenting his case. OMGUS is less bad because he's been going after Sakana all day anyway.

Blah, I don't know whether I should believe the Roucase or not. People say I'm too forgiving (see D1 tiebreaker last mafia), something I know is true about myself. Not a good thing in Mafia. I suppose it's something I'll have to come back to tommorow, since either way, I'm still quite sure Sakana is scum.

wordcountsagaghghhahghhhh

[Pesco]

Evening Hour of the Tiger

Voting

Kefit (0):
Nat Tea (0):
Moe Moe Sakanespierre (1): Rou
NeoSerela (0):
?lice Bl?ckb?rn (0):
Roukanken (1): Kefit

Not Voting: Everyone else

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is in ~64 hours

[Dead Princess Sakana]

Okay, since nothing we're closing in on the deadline, #Vote: Roukanken. This vote will not change.

I'm aware that I have neither a good original case on him, nor a good defense for the case on me (the latter is, imo, pretty much impossible anyway).
My case on Rou is based on the reactions Ecthal generated plus Rou's actions since he replaced in, in combination with my knowledge of my own alignment.
Since Rou hasn't really discussed any cases besides the one on me, the only way to prove my case would be for me to die, which makes it extremely weak.
This is all I can say.

[Pesco]

Something like 33 hours left

[Nat Tea]

Is everyone really busy today or just waiting for a last minute speed lynch?

[Kefit]

I have no idea. Everyone seemed dying to hear what I had to say, only for my post to be a death knell that killed the thread.

A no lynch today isn't the worst thing that could ever happen, but I doubt subsequent days will see a spark in the level of activity.

[Pesco]

Something like 11 hours left. Day ends when I wake up

[FinnKaenbyou]

Since Rou hasn't really discussed any cases besides the one on me, the only way to prove my case would be for me to die, which makes it extremely weak.

No offense, but this is the worst logic I have ever seen in a mafia game. Of COURSE I can't prove my case conclusively while you're still alive, because if that was possible the game would be incredibly dull. You can't do the same conclusively to me either, so does that make your case extremely weak as well?

I don't like the idea of a no lynch today, because it just gives scum a chance to kill someone unrelated and leave the question open. Still keeping my vote on Sakana.