FTL: Faster Than Light Mafia Pt. 2 (The Last Stand) (Contains Lots of Images)

[ActionDan]

Hmm, I guess I'll start by asking you two why not crossvote. Like, if there's sufficient doubt that DNA was a scum slot. From bits and pieces of following the past few cycles I thought I'd be deciding LYLO, or dead.

In fact, I was sure Conq or I would die, but I guess the one-shot vig claim was a strong enough clear?

Ha, no.

[Conqueror]

Well, I actually haven't played a lylo as town since Cavalier of the Abyss when I had confirmed scum in front of me, so yeah. I'm not used to LYLOs. I'd much prefer it if you two crossvoted!

Your slot has read town to me pretty much all game but at this point for any of us to be scum we'd have to have been involved in stupid bussing shenanigans. Likewise with Dan's slot after the scum flips.

You dying last night wouldn't make any sense unless scum!Dan wanted to 1v1 me, which would be pretty suicidal for him. I only really see me dying in the scenario that you are scum and trying to go for the fast lynch on Dan.

[BT]

Is one of you guys awake and can go over claimed/confirmed night actions for each cycle? I'll probably piece it together myself but it might be better reading with the knowledge in mind already.

[BT]

If it wasn't obvious by now, I'm looking at roles first because roles are fun. That's right, DNA was cleared because his role is town. Instead of a protective utility (Dan - by the way, was anyone able to confirm any commuter / ascetic night cycles?) or an info role (probably Conq), scum wouldn't have another lynch control role and another role that deactivates in SYMLO. Something something crossvote please.

Did we find out what the Clone Bay from Shalako's PM does?

[BT]

Also something I usually base lategame analyses off is the general mood of the game for each cycle. Like, was town really on the ball around the time Shalako and Bard/Sky were lynched in a way that made it hard for scum to form other wagons? That'd explain Dan subbing in with the bus, for example, because it would have been hard to do something else.

For example. Or how last scum's behavior might have changed the closer they were to a real chance of winning. I'll try to keep my eye on that kind of stuff but your thoughts would be nice too.

[BT]

I think I'll get the last few things off my chest before I commit to reading 40 pages. (why)

The relevant posts I've read from last day make me feel Conq genuinely thought the game was gonna end, while Dan had a clearer plan of lynching Serela and then DNA/myself, as he would know that LYLO is coming. Role-wise, one-shot bodyguard, one-shot jailor, rogue (Serelaaaa. This is totally a SF/Smogon thing, by the way), hijacker, tracker and universal backup is quite enough to fuck over scum NKs - one- or two-shot commuter is going overboard, while scum ascetic or X-shot ascetic would help remedy that headache for scum. Also consider that while ascetic is strong, town gain enough through targeting other townies, since they have many NK-blocking utilities that an ascetic wouldn't help with, and also have the one-shot global nighttalk, one-shot neighborizer, tracker and vote manipulation, and in this case a one-shot cop as well.

Right at this moment I'd vote Dan, but there's plenty of other stuff I haven't taken into account yet, so.  :colbert:

[BT]

Cleared Shadow Serael after Zek dies since he reveals he knows Serael is town.

A+ name butchering.

[BT]

From trusty notepad.exe:

d1 points of interest

sb's conq case -> sb's n1 death, +conq scum
shalako and dna slamming one another in what is obviously town v scum shitflinging, +dna town
bard swaps to dormio ld1 based on a recycled opinion instead of reading the game and finding a wagon, +dan town

https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18658.msg1198928.html#msg1198928
some of these posts are golden. seriously just read the shalako / dna d1 slapfight, it's endearing

dormio's interations with shalako +dan town
conq's telegraphed shadoweh cop +conq town

Plus the first few posts of D2, retract what I said about Dan having to bus Bard because that definitely was not the case. This is going to be harder than I thought, especially since mod-given fakeclaims are proven to exist.

[BT]

So yes, I wanted to keep this close to my chest for the time being but I think I'll ask anyway - Dan, why do you barely suspect Conq, if you suspect him at all? Why wouldn't NNR tell Conq town doesn't have a cop? (this is something you brought up in your ISO sometime)

[BT]

For the record, it would have been a strong argument for Scum Dan that he wouldn't look at Scum Conq as a possibility, but now I'm more curious than suspicious.

[BT]

That's enough for now. Gotta watch more The Genius.

[ActionDan]

So yes, I wanted to keep this close to my chest for the time being but I think I'll ask anyway - Dan, why do you barely suspect Conq, if you suspect him at all? Why wouldn't NNR tell Conq town doesn't have a cop? (this is something you brought up in your ISO sometime)

My opinion was that the only possibility was conq being a rolecop to warrant conq being given a cop fake claim (see sky's jailer fakeclaim) furthermore I'd have suspected him of using that on shadoweh so he'd have known he could safely fake a result on her.  But if so, Shadoweh dying N3 would have happened in all probability.

As for his play it's been strong everywhere you look. 

[ActionDan]

shalako and dna slamming one another in what is obviously town v scum shitflinging, +dna town

https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18658.msg1198928.html#msg1198928
some of these posts are golden. seriously just read the shalako / dna d1 slapfight, it's endearing

This is not obvious after the shit that happened page 2 with raitaki.   Previous to the linked post I found shalako to be perfectly reasonable  and DNA to be a lot less so in their back and forth.  Also DNA coupled shalako and murrin together, so there was an additional stake were this a bus.

[BT]

This is not obvious after the shit that happened page 2 with raitaki.   Previous to the linked post I found shalako to be perfectly reasonable  and DNA to be a lot less so in their back and forth.  Also DNA coupled shalako and murrin together, so there was an additional stake were this a bus.

You say that but just from the language of the D1 exchange it's hard to imagine they're from the same team...

I'll get back to you on the Conq post after I read D2.

[BT]

https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18658.msg1200123.html#msg1200123
These are the kind of posts that explain my case here the best. >_> You're not going to be complete dicks to eachother when you share a QT unless you're really good at faking, and I'd like to see anyone argue that DNA-Shalako was faked. Dudes never met before and DNA, for as crazy as he is, wouldn't be this mean to someone on his same team. I linked this post in particular because it also displays the time range where Scum Shalako gave up casing DNA because, to scum, the beloved hated potato role is blindingly townie, which isn't surprising, because it's town.

Tell me more about how the page 2 Raitaki vote matters here, or how Scum DNA stood to gain from this bus. Of course there was something to gain, but that doesn't mean it was possible for DNA the human being to pull it off.

[BT]

How do you feel about Bard clearing people for putting effort into the game? (My statement was a bit exaggerated I agree, I just play from a more wary base of thought.)
Do Mafia members literally not put effort into games here?

this might be relevant

At the time Conq was the one complaining about how no one was playing, meanwhile Dan was "busy playing LoL and not giving 2 shits". And Bard was nowhere. And Dormio lurked before getting subbed out too.

 :3

[BT]

I should stop multiposting. Shit.

I'll get back to you on the Conq post after I read D2.

Anyway, I wanted to make sure no one claimed roleblocked on N1-D2. Basically, you're failing to consider that Conq the rolecop was under no obligation to clop Shadoweh before fakeclaiming a cop shot on her. That's just one play optimization that might have easily not happened. I was gonna say "maybe the RB checked for asceticism" but yeah no RB claim, but it's irrelevant.

I want to say something more but I want your stance first. I can keep assuming you'd rather push DNA (which makes no sense to me) but you're not saying it explicitly so this is awkward.

[ActionDan]

https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php/topic,18658.msg1200123.html#msg1200123
These are the kind of posts that explain my case here the best. >_> You're not going to be complete dicks to eachother when you share a QT unless you're really good at faking, and I'd like to see anyone argue that DNA-Shalako was faked. Dudes never met before and DNA, for as crazy as he is, wouldn't be this mean to someone on his same team. I linked this post in particular because it also displays the time range where Scum Shalako gave up casing DNA because, to scum, the beloved hated potato role is blindingly townie, which isn't surprising, because it's town.

Tell me more about how the page 2 Raitaki vote matters here, or how Scum DNA stood to gain from this bus. Of course there was something to gain, but that doesn't mean it was possible for DNA the human being to pull it off.

Incidentally you linked the post that made Praise DNA in my QT with Dorian.   But DNA isn't being mean here?  In fact he cooled down imo from D1 to D2.   That said it's possible to say in what I assume is Day-time scum chat "Hey, I'm gonna bus you, and possibly be a dick, be aware".  It's happened before, and I can imagine DNA being capable of doing something like that.  I have no idea if Shalako could do the same though.  I mention Raitaki because he went just as hard on Raitaki as he did Shalako, so that behavior of aggression is systemic and not an indicator of town vs scum, because if DNA is town, then Raitaki vs DNA was town vs town.

THAT SAID, you can make the argument that shalako flinging the shit was a scum targeting a townie.  This would have been ED1 and D2.  It's absolutely possible, but it's also not beyond shalako distancing at first and then escalating that.   The post you quoted from D2 does give off the impression of legitimate anger from shalako though.

The post that you think might be relevant is not, unless you believe that if I was scum Shalako would want to call attention to the possibility of the scum being lurkers from the bottom of his townie sympathizing heart

[ActionDan]

I want to say something more but I want your stance first. I can keep assuming you'd rather push DNA (which makes no sense to me) but you're not saying it explicitly so this is awkward.

My stance is that in the absence of agreeing with "this DNA vs Shalako is town vs scum obviously" I'm going to weigh in other independent factors like, whose play has been better, whose votes have been better, roles, and so on.

[ActionDan]

I'm also making a decision, not a push.  At this stage I'm not going to be swayed by that much that's spawned today, but I will take into consideration anything that's brought up.

[BT]

Incidentally you linked the post that made Praise DNA in my QT with Dorian.   But DNA isn't being mean here?  In fact he cooled down imo from D1 to D2.   That said it's possible to say in what I assume is Day-time scum chat "Hey, I'm gonna bus you, and possibly be a dick, be aware".  It's happened before, and I can imagine DNA being capable of doing something like that.  I have no idea if Shalako could do the same though.  I mention Raitaki because he went just as hard on Raitaki as he did Shalako, so that behavior of aggression is systemic and not an indicator of town vs scum, because if DNA is town, then Raitaki vs DNA was town vs town.

THAT SAID, you can make the argument that shalako flinging the shit was a scum targeting a townie.  This would have been ED1 and D2.  It's absolutely possible, but it's also not beyond shalako distancing at first and then escalating that.   The post you quoted from D2 does give off the impression of legitimate anger from shalako though.

The post that you think might be relevant is not, unless you believe that if I was scum Shalako would want to call attention to the possibility of the scum being lurkers from the bottom of his townie sympathizing heart

Then I'll simplify by saying my argument is that this wasn't faked, and that they were legitimately degrading one another. I'd think that this is a pretty crucial point for your decision but whatever you say.

The last main thing I'm seeing coming out of D2 is the obligatory claim interactions. Conq was involved and looks very townie coming out of it, while Dan was around to make light remarks and hammer, but not participate.

[BT]

Umm... I have work tomorrow... won't be back in a good 18 hours, thought I'd share... A bit late...

If for some reason you have questions for me, get them out now I guess.

[Conqueror]

Pity about conflicting time zones, since I only really get to this thread late at night. But some quick stuff while I'm here.

Dan, could you answer this?

Hmm. I guess I'd ask Dan why he kinda petered off after the Sky lynch?

I have wondered a bit about whether Dan was buddying me up or not. I do think I've been town enough this game but I haven't been the most active and I could potentially see why someone might suspect me. But at the same time I feel like as scum here he'd have more to benefit from trying to cast suspicion on me and try to get the paranoia going?

I'm not sure what to make of the "scum wouldn't be dicks to each other" argument since I'm pretty sure I've seen worse between scum. And since Shalako is new here I don't know what kind of dynamics he could have with DNA, perhaps they genuinely hated each other. However, I didn't read most of that huge back and forth because it felt like a waste of time, so maybe I should do that. The back and forth memeposts did seem really overblown though, so it's not hard to wonder if it was an act when you get down to it.

BT's role argument is probably the most convincing thing on this page tbh. But there's nothing stopping NNR from adding another part/restriction to your role since we know after Serela's flip he's not beyond complex roles despite everyone else's roles being simple.

[NekoNekoRex]

around 2 days remain. I can't remember when I started the day but this is a reliable time anyway.

[BT]

There was more to Serela's role? I didn't catch that yet.

Following via phone.

[Conqueror]

Well, no. I meant in the sense that it wasn't a simple one role role.
Actually I'll have to check the other role pms to see.

[Conqueror]

Well, all the town bar Dorian have only one ability and all the scum seem to have two. But I think someone mentioned that the last ability listed is the fakeclaim. I think it was DNA actually. So really only one ability I guess.
So I guess you'd have to be a scum JoAT? Hmm.

[Conqueror]

Oh right. This was what I was trying to get at earlier. The fact that your role as claimed already has two parts (beloved and vote giver) means it's more likely that there could be other parts to it as well. This sounds backwards but it makes sense in my mind.

Since we're on the subject of roles DNA should have really used his ability to target dan N4 or whatever, it would have shed light on commuter vs ascetic. We never did end up testing the beloved claim, I guess since it would be stupid to claim beloved whIle not being beloved.

Also I've been wondering why Dan wouldnt kill me N2 if he saw my cop crumb. I suppose I could have been roleblocked?

[Conqueror]

Is one of you guys awake and can go over claimed/confirmed night actions for each cycle?

Me: copped shadoweh n1
Dan: commuted N4
Dna: sent drones to me n1, to Dan N4

Raitaki claimed being roleblocked n1
Serela targeted dan N4
Dorian neigjborized Murrin or someone n1, got hijacked to dan, used night talk d2?, jailed Patorikku N3
Patorikku vigged Shalako n2

I think that's all the claims? Sorry if it's a bit late

[BT]

There have been blocked NKs, no?

and I was just gonna ask for that list again. The big thorn vs ascetic atm is that it probably would have stopped the hijack or the neighborizer, one of the two. So full scum ascetic is probably out.