can see some of you people from here: Zak, Serp, Alice, Alert...why not say something for a change so I can converse with someone other than Pesco? Believe me, I'll be endlessly grateful for it.
Warning - while you were typing (9) new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.I'm working on it!!! Give me another five hours :<
I remember Rou saying something about Affinity's vote on Baily being "Facts Facts Vote" Which puzzles me, since I don't see why discarding evidence as facts makes a vote misplaced? Rou appears to be forcing a Beilos = Townie perspective onto himself.
Personally, on the self vote, I've learned from previous, recent games that nothing screwed the town over faster than self voting. Oddly enough, we can't seem to go a single game without someone self voting. At this point, there are only two things I see being true: Beilos is Scum trying to WiFoM the town into not voting for him, or Beilos is trying to pull off a fongs gambit, in which he deserves to be voted for anyway.
##Unvote, ##Vote: BaliySMNot really and Edit: Sorry Beilos~ I tried to make this post on memory of what happened. Beilos sounds much better than Baliy, though~
A last-minute vote change remains a really dangerous move for scum to make in general, whether one, two, or three lynches are floating around. I see forcing them to pull that as a bonus, not a flaw. They can screw regular lynches too...
This is absolutely true, but there's still the problem that a votescrewed six way lynch will very likely lead to the situation outlined in my last post - a one townie buffer going into a one townie dies phase.
I'm going down the route of double-lynch being the best opportunity as well.
"Anti-bandwagon"
I use to think that, too, but people here consider it a legitimate scumtell, and being able to pull yourself from L-1 to L-2 means nothing when people have a reason to vote you. In short, Fongs Gambit is a scumtell on these forums and you should avoid thinking of it much less doing it.
I'm definitely leaning towards Serp being town. Well, as much as I can day one at least.
If the day ends with multiple wagons on the same number of votes, vote switching will still give us double-lynch at least (assuming small jumps).
You do realise this plan revolves around having several solid cases on several players on D1, right? That's asking for quite a lot.
That doesn't mean we won't have multiple targets by the end of today. Plus, the vote switching falls under the category of scum manipulation, which in turn helps us figure out who's who by the time day 2 starts.
I don't know what to make of the whole Baity situation so I'm just quietly waiting for another development to pop up.
Every time I see someone post in a mafia game that they are waiting for something to happen, I get angry, and the only way to calm myself down is to watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjOZkZ2zTJA&Gensokyo Blender makes up for it in the next post, but I will be taking into the fact that Pesco was holding a gun to his head.
It's not waffling, it's pointing out that Baity's 'Maybe I want more votes, you reminded me of my role' could be a softclaim. Had anyone else mentioned that?
I had thought about it myself, but the only softclaim I could think of is Fool. I doubt there is one, and if there was, they're wouldn't allude to it unless they wanted to scare people from lynching them. This, combined with the paranoid attitude Affinity mentioned makes me think Beilos is a mafioso.
I'd like to know a pro-town roles that advances the town win condition by being lynched? Bomb doesn't count, since it's better to be Nightkilled as bomb to make certain you hit scum.
Oh good, you do it when poked. Why only analyze those 5 players though, Kanguya?
Why not? We've already gone over how trying to analyze everyone day one isn't helpful, so why not focus on the ones that stand out. I'd say analyzing five players is a very good start for day one.
Speaking of which: My five analysis targets on a scale of most town to most scum.
Serp - pro-town
I'm seeing quite a bit of determined scum hunting. as long as this keeps up, Serp is cleared for me.
Affinity - anti-scum
I'd love to see more than the vote on Beilos, but since we share a similar opinion on Beilos (And because of Rou's attack on Affinity) I'm not going to be regarding him
Pesco - Anti-scum
The Aggressive nature is awkward, but what I see here is a complete flip from his actions in Workers Union. I'm not considering this the ultimate town tell for Pesco (I've put him lower than affinity) but it's enough for me to regard him as town sided.
Roukanken - Pro-scum
As I've said above, Roukanken seems to be trying too hard to take the Beilos = Town approach when I really see no legitimate argument for believing such. He's then continued to defend Beilos and Attack Pesco. This has lead to, as Serp put it, a married couple's bickering which is a distraction from actual scumhunting. Note: I'm not saying Roukanken started this, but he's making absolutely no effort to stop outside of FoSing people who are probably making posts and catching up.
Beilos - Pro-scum/Anti-town
As I've mentioned above the voting for yourself idea is wrong on several occasions, and while some people pass it off as an honest mistake, Beilos has gone far enough to admit that he is doing this on purpose for some supposed reason that I have yet to determine is anything other than scaring people not to vote for him.
Cut by several things, Including Neitz confirming my suspicion that there's no jester role.
