Author Topic: Numbers Mafia - Scum Win, Q.E.D.  (Read 38726 times)

Edible

  • One part the F?hrer, one part the Pope
  • *
  • It's the inevitable return, baby
Re: Numbers Mafia - Before Calculating
« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2009, 01:59:15 PM »
Confirming that Roukanken can't feel his legs.

Edible was multiplied by 0. He was a Spectator.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2009, 02:02:42 PM by Roukanken »

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Numbers Mafia - Before Calculating
« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2009, 03:49:28 PM »
Wow Rou, sounds painful

/confirm


FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Numbers Mafia - Before Calculating
« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2009, 05:00:52 PM »
*checks his watch*

Okay, it is now most DEFINITELY Tuesday, at 12PM GMT - 5.

int day = 1;

Go wild.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2009, 05:04:35 PM »
Oh cool it really is Tuesday

##Divide by ZeRou

##Vote Sol

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2009, 06:04:48 PM »
P=16  E=5  S=19  C=3  O=15

16+5+19+3+15=58

B=2

S=19  C=3  U=21  M=13

2+19+3+21+13=58

Pesco be scum.

##Vote Pesco
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2009, 07:07:45 PM »
I cannot argue with Serpentarius' case...

##Vote Pesco

Yes, this case is even better than the one on the mod.


Ramus

  • The Knightly Wizard
  • Trying to be an engineer
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2009, 07:10:15 PM »
GO GO random number generator.  Give me some number between 1 and 9 inclusive!

9.  Frick, that's me.

##Vote: Ramus

I never thought I'd be the one to end damned by the RNG.

Nietz

  • NEETz
  • *
  • Normal Person
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2009, 07:36:41 PM »
Let Ω be a sample space such that Ω = {x1,x2,...,xn} being the n=9 value and the associated identity set [In] as defined by Kerigis et al.1:
Quote
I1 = ShiningDrake
I2 = UncertainKitten
I3 = Zakeri
I4 = Affinity
I5 = Nietz
I6 = Serpentarius
I7 = Sol
I8 = Pesco
I9 = Ramus

For each subset x ⊂ Ω, a f(x) value is assigned such that f(x) = nδ/t, being nδ defined as a subset of the total number of MotK posts n such that it includes only the posts in UGW and being t defined by the time spent online.

In this manner, we obtain a set of values for Ω, based on the current available data2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.
Quote
x1 = 14,774
x2 = 21,791
x3 = 39,600
x4 = 34,098
x5 = 21,526
x6 = 16,997
x7 = 11,564
x8 = 23,139
x9 = 41,747

From this set, we can easily derive:
- An arithmetic mean μ(x) = 25,026
- A median  μ1/2(x) = 21,791
- A variance  Var(X) = 118,922
- A standard deviation α = 10,905

Applying the values of μ α derived for the Ω set, and assigning a value of deviation from the mean, defined by Dn = [xn- μ(x)]/α for every member of the Ω set, we arrive to the values:

Quote
D1 = 0,940
D2 = 0,296
D3 = 1,336
D4 = 0,832
D5 = 0,321
D6 = 0,736
D7 = 1,235
D8 = 0,173
D9 = 1,533

We therefore arrive to the value of D = 1,336 for the element x3 of the Ω set that is, the element with the highest deviation from the mean, to be referred from now on as the omega deviant.

Following I3, we arrive to Zakeri as the identity of the omega deviant.

As it is plain to see that a title such as omega deviant can only belong to scum, we determine here that Zakeri is the most likely to be scum in this player set.

##QED Vote: Zakeri

Unless I've forgotten some fundamental rule of mathematics, 1,533 > 1,336. See me after class.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2009, 07:48:25 PM by Roukanken »

Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2009, 08:26:22 PM »
eye rolled dice.

I rolled two dice! They had ten sides each.

I got an 8 and a 5.

8 + 5 = 6

Yay!

##Vote Serpentarius

...I will spare you my wrath, simply for the sake of avoiding an aneurysm.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2009, 10:12:25 PM by Roukanken »

Nietz

  • NEETz
  • *
  • Normal Person
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2009, 09:55:04 PM »
Unless I've forgotten some fundamental rule of mathematics, 1,533 > 1,336. See me after class.
##Unvote
## Errata Vote: Ramus

Absence of mind is the mark of a genius.

Though I should add to the errata that the equation Dn = [xn- μ(x)]/α should have been written Dn = |xn- μ(x)|/α.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2009, 09:56:16 PM »
Once again Nietz is consistently scummy

Ramus

  • The Knightly Wizard
  • Trying to be an engineer
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2009, 10:05:18 PM »
Nietz was intentionally using that mistake to frame Zakeri!  DIE SCUM!

##unvote Ramus
##vote Nietz

Ionasal kkll Solciel

  • Girl from beyond the 7th Dimension
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2009, 01:23:33 AM »
Impending headache is impending.

Both Serpentarius and Neitz make compelling arguments, but for the sake of being consistent between games:

##Vote: Neitz
Let's Play: BIT.TRIP FLUX | Let's Play: Malicious | Skyward Sword: Shieldless Final Boss | Skyward Sword: Boss Rush! | Ace Combat Infinity: Campaign in the X-02 Wyvern


Move eternally forward,
So that we may always be at your side.

Kerigis

  • *Gnaws Donut*
  • Bow down before the true administrator!
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #43 on: October 28, 2009, 02:04:55 AM »
*Knocks chalkboard with ruler*
Okay, pay attention! Lesson for today: Roman Numbers!

VOTECOUNT

Sol: I (Pesco)
Pesco: II (Serpentarius, UncertainKitten)
Ramus: I (Ramus, Nietz)
Zakeri:  (Nietz)
Serpentarius: I (Zakeri)
Nietz: II (Ramus, Sol)

Not doing his/her homework (Haven't voted): ShiningDrake, Affinity

With 9 players left, 5 are required for a lynch!
The deadline to hand your homework is on Thursday 29th, 12PM (GMT-5)

Class dismissed.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2009, 06:59:59 PM by Kerigis »

Powerup punchin'!

Affinity

  • hoho
  • ... but I have promises to keep.
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #44 on: October 28, 2009, 06:59:16 AM »
... Wasn't Ramus on Nietz?  And wow at Nietz reminding me of statistics.

Taking the first letter of every name, we get SUZANSSPR.  There are 9!/3! (60480) ways to arrange these letters.  By calculating the digital root of this figure, we get 18, which corresponds to the alphabet R (If A=1, B=2, etc.).  Surely, this mathematical relation could not possibly have occurred merely by chance.  Thus,

##Vote: Ramus

Even with 10 players, the alphabet would still be R.  I rest my case.

Why are you referring to the possible permutations when you're talking about the digital root? It's 18 whatever combination you use. Unnecessary working is unnecessary, see me after class.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2009, 06:52:10 PM by Roukanken »

Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #45 on: October 28, 2009, 07:23:31 AM »
Quote
SUZANSSPR.
I read that as "Suzan Spear"

Ramus

  • The Knightly Wizard
  • Trying to be an engineer
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #46 on: October 28, 2009, 11:04:45 AM »
Teacher! I voted Nietz, not Zakeri!

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #47 on: October 28, 2009, 11:49:50 AM »
Impending headache is impending.

Both Serpentarius and Neitz make compelling arguments, but for the sake of being consistent between games:

##Vote: Neitz

What consistency?

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #48 on: October 28, 2009, 05:54:13 PM »
We're now over 24 hours into the day.  Let's get a little more serious.

##Unvote
##Vote: Nietz
  (L-2)

Nietz, have you found anything suspicious in any of the other players' random votes?

Also, note that ShiningDrake not yet shown up since the start of the day.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Kerigis

  • *Gnaws Donut*
  • Bow down before the true administrator!
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #49 on: October 28, 2009, 06:55:45 PM »
Sorry for that, Ramus.

VOTECOUNT

Sol: I (Pesco)
Pesco: I (Serpentarius, UncertainKitten)
Ramus: II (Ramus, Nietz, Affinity)
Zakeri:  (Nietz)
Serpentarius: I (Zakeri)
Nietz: III (Ramus, Sol, Serpentarius) (L-2)

Not doing his/her homework (Haven't voted): ShiningDrake

With 9 players left, 5 are required for a lynch!
The deadline to hand your homework is on Thursday 29th, 12PM (GMT-5)
« Last Edit: October 28, 2009, 06:58:31 PM by Kerigis »

Powerup punchin'!

Ionasal kkll Solciel

  • Girl from beyond the 7th Dimension
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #50 on: October 28, 2009, 07:57:26 PM »
What consistency?
He was my first vote in (9) Squad.  Well, that, and the RNG I use somehow pinned him again.
Let's Play: BIT.TRIP FLUX | Let's Play: Malicious | Skyward Sword: Shieldless Final Boss | Skyward Sword: Boss Rush! | Ace Combat Infinity: Campaign in the X-02 Wyvern


Move eternally forward,
So that we may always be at your side.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #51 on: October 28, 2009, 08:01:17 PM »
He was my first vote in ⑨ Squad.  Well, that, and the RNG I use somehow pinned him again.

Somehow huh? What you think of Serp's vote?

Seian Verian

  • Snuggledragon
  • Snuggles for everyone
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #52 on: October 28, 2009, 08:19:45 PM »
I wasn't posting because I thought it was still mostly just randomness, and none of it worth commenting on. And I have an excuse for the past few hours either way, I went back to sleep due to inexplicable exhaustion and only woke up again just now ._.

Ionasal kkll Solciel

  • Girl from beyond the 7th Dimension
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #53 on: October 28, 2009, 08:31:45 PM »
Somehow huh? What you think of Serp's vote?
Well, for a joke vote, he's playing up the "Pesco obvscum" angle.  Can't really blame him for that.
Let's Play: BIT.TRIP FLUX | Let's Play: Malicious | Skyward Sword: Shieldless Final Boss | Skyward Sword: Boss Rush! | Ace Combat Infinity: Campaign in the X-02 Wyvern


Move eternally forward,
So that we may always be at your side.

UncertainJakutten

  • Then you should get out of the way when I tell you
  • Do you not trust my aim?
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #54 on: October 28, 2009, 08:51:16 PM »
You're telling me I've been gone for about a day and a half and no one's done anything stupid yet? Geez...I'm somewhat impressed, but this is mildly problematic. How many hours are left in the day?

T = 20 hours and 1 minute, where T = time remaining = length of day phase - time spent = 48 hours - 28 hours and 59 minutes.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2009, 08:59:50 PM by Roukanken »


Ramus

  • The Knightly Wizard
  • Trying to be an engineer
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #55 on: October 28, 2009, 09:04:39 PM »
Well, for a joke vote, he's playing up the "Pesco obvscum" angle.  Can't really blame him for that.
Rule #1 of Mafia on Shrine Maiden:  Pesco is always obvscum
Rule #2 of Mafia on Shrine Maiden:  If Pesco is not scum, anyone involved with Pesco is obvscum.

Anyway, Drake, stop STFUing and get posting.  WE NEED ANALYSIS.  You're scummy for lurking!
And I'm not pulling up any analysis.  This is nothing but random stupid votes.  Roukanken, we need to borrow the tank again.

Hey, I borrowed it from Umu. Don't look at me. >_>
« Last Edit: October 28, 2009, 09:59:03 PM by Roukanken »

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #56 on: October 28, 2009, 09:13:11 PM »
Well, for a joke vote, he's playing up the "Pesco obvscum" angle.  Can't really blame him for that.

Serp's vote on Nietz I mean.

Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #57 on: October 28, 2009, 09:17:13 PM »
Quote
You're telling me I've been gone for about a day and a half and no one's done anything stupid yet?
That's what happens when you hold everyone up to a high standard for a long enough period of time. People stop making mistakes.

Quote from: Ramus
WE NEED ANALYSIS.
Quote from: Killjoy
And I'm not pulling up any analysis.

Tee hee.

##Unvote
##Vote: Ramus

Ramus

  • The Knightly Wizard
  • Trying to be an engineer
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #58 on: October 28, 2009, 09:28:15 PM »
I'm pulling that one as an excuse reason to put a vote on me and bring me up to L-2.  Not to mention, why the joke votes had some level of justification, yours is a whomping "Tee hee."  And before you say that the second statement was being lazy, it was more of, I couldn't pull any analysis from the rather lame joke posts from above.

You, Zakeri, however, just voted me just because I stated we needed analysis and I couldn't provide any yet.  It's fallacy saying that if I can't play well then I'm scummy.

##Unvote Nietz
##Vote Zakeri


Run with it people, I made a serious vote.

Pesco

  • Trickster Rabbit Tewi
  • *
  • Make a yukkuri and take it easy with me
Re: Numbers Mafia - Int day = 1;
« Reply #59 on: October 28, 2009, 09:55:51 PM »
Your serious vote is an OMGUS...

##Unvote
##Vote Ramus
(L-1)