~Beyond the Border~ > Daiyousei's Cold Storage
Lesson #1
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--- Quote from: Cirno on April 21, 2009, 07:47:28 AM ---What is the probability of Alice's laser penetrating Marisa's eldritch barrier? And what will be the consequences if Marisa is nailed with entirety of Alice's firey temper powered magical load?

--- End quote ---
I am going to answer with: 0 because there are no buses in Gen- *gapped in train*
sorry, I couldn't calculate and provide the answer, but I've gathered some elements that might help one elaborate a formula that might bring someone closer to an approximate result..

- A is the stars' average resistance (it may sometimes be stronger than edible danmaku)
- B is the atmosphere's pressure (it's supposed to affect the stars and lasers' speed; also, humans such as Marisa are much more vulnerable to cold than youkai magicians)
- C is the environment's temperature (their attacks might be blotting out the sun)
- D is the amount of time the fight has been going on (knowing that, as mentioned before, Marisa is more vulnerable to cold, Alice should aim to tire her out -- a.k.a. turtle her way to victory --, while Marisa should aim for a faster conclusion)
- E is the amount of magical energy Marisa's using on that spellcard
- F is the amount of magical energy Alice's using on her attack
- G is the remainder of Marisa's magical energy
- H is the remainder of Alice's magical energy (not factoring in the dolls' arsenal, since some of them were found in other occasions to contain powder -- like in SA)
- I is Shanghai's current temperature
- J is the angle at which Alice's laser is attacking the circle (Alice has these options: attacking Marisa through the star belt, which means attacking the star belt through it's weakest spot, should the belt be rotating around Marisa; attacking the star belt at its tangent to either weaken it or to cause some imbalance, hoping to create a weak point in it; moving to another position where either Alice can attack Marisa directly, or snipe her; simply wait until Marisa's protective barrier is timed out)
- K is Marisa's current stamina
- L is Alice's current stamina

there are other things that could factor into this formula, like Marisa having some offense plan (like baiting Alice into firing her laser, and then blinding her or Spark her to take advantage of the lesser reaction time, or summoning a laser from under Alice; or bombing, then taking advantage of the invulnerability time to smack Alice with her broom; or using some uncommon resources/elements that she happened to come across; or she might choose to defeat her dolls first) and them using the environment to their advantage..

Because there are no buses in.. oh wait.
Let's see, so Shanghai just had a cold?  That means Alice is using Hourai today, and Hourai is stronger, take that into account.

It's Ash Wednesday, but we're in Japan so nobody cares.  It is Wednesday though, so everybody is at their peak, because Wednesday is the middle of the week.

Now, assume each star needs X amount of damage to be broken through.  Since it's 1 star thick, but they're big stars, x is obviously an enormous number.

Alice's lasers are weak, even at 4.7 power.  We all know she relies on Malice Cannon to not be the worst character ever conceived, so take that into account!

Now, Marisa dropped her hat, which will just make her more mad, even if her head is colder, so the stars increase in power.  This means it's like 2x to break through a star, which is indeed a huge difference.

Alice is being tsundere, so her power is actually lower.  Like 4.5.  This is probably a good thing for Marisa.

Tsundere does last for a long time though, but if you look at Alice's hourai beam in IaMP, where imaginably she was doing quite well because she was very well fed, it's really not that long of an attack.  Let's say a star has 75 HP normally, so it has 150 now.  I think this is reasonable with Marisa's familiars in her IN attacks.

I will take 4.5 to mean damage per second, each hourai beam lasts two seconds.  She can have up to 9 power bars, going by IaMP's rules, and maybe she has a secret spellcard hiding that can do 20 damage.

Unfortunately, since Marisa lost her hat, there is a 0% chance that Alice will win.

But wait!  Let's say there is a 30% chance that Reimu will stumble upon this battle.  There is also a 75% chance that Reimu is mad at Marisa and would rather help Alice than Marisa.  Therefore, Reimu will obviously put the hat back on and suddenly, Marisa will eat laser.  26 damage if the secret spellcard is used, 6 if not.

The consequences are probably pretty small.  Alice will feel bad and make up for it anyways, so what does it matter?  But in the end, a 22.5% chance of her winning isn't bad.  Yay.
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