An Untitled Mafia - Game Over

[Serela]

IMO there is no good reason for town to not just claim miller immediately, because if miller things actually become relevant then they're still pretty damn suspicious for claiming it afterwords, regardless of softcrumbs like this >_>

But at the same time I can also see a townie thinking that not outing their role immediately could maybe be a good thing to do, even if IMO it's really not the better option.

URGH

Dan:Rolefishing using HW's wording is worthless, he easily could have said it like that even if no applicable roles existed.

[Serela]

IMO there is no good reason for town to not just claim miller immediately, because if miller things actually become relevant then they're still pretty damn suspicious for claiming it afterwords, regardless of softcrumbs like this >_>

especially because, and I just realized

not only does this mean they get a guilty on them

IT MEANS THE INVESTIGATIVE ROLE WASTED A PRECIOUS TURN ON THEM

[ActionDan]

chance of cops copping me night 1. 1/14.

I decided to take the risk.  I might not always do that.  for example if the game was 9-p, I'd have probably claimed outright. 

[Schezo]

alright Serela take a deep breath and vote him if it's that bad.

[Serela]

but but but

bad play =/= scum

I mean I do still kinda want to lynch AD

but now that the shenanigans are explained I could also definitely see him do this as town ;_;

[ActionDan]

BBM kill suggests Serela town for a few reasons.

[ActionDan]

this isn't even bad play. wtf.

[Serela]

I'm always happy to see my scumspects nightkilled. It's highly convenient.

Unless maybe if I'm desperately relying on having them so that I don't get lynched to the face, but >_>

Kilga, just to make sure, your evict thing was just a fake vote while you voted AD and not an actual special ability, right?

AD:You're free to protest but I already explained why I think it is D: I just don't see any town benefit to NOT claiming miller immediately, whilst there's plenty of bad possibilities.

[ActionDan]

claiming miller early means you aren't a danger to scum role-wise. 

[NekoNekoRex]

##Vote: ActionDan Not buying it. Relying on flavor to save you is pretty terrible,  especially when could easily have been provided a fakeclaim or somesuch. It's even worse you claimed miller defensively, instead of announcing it ED1.

There is no reason why this case shouldn't horribly reek of scum.

[Sky_Paladin]

Actually it was 2/14 because I had a cop-shot as well.  Glad I didn't use it on Dan. 

Personally if I was miller I would have declared it day 1 because I don't want to waste the cop check or risk, you know, accidentally killing our cop. 

I'm assuming there is a cop in the set up somewhere because I only got one check. 

This confirms that BT actually targetted Dan though.  But

er I should say false negatives

immediately calls into question the validity of my check on Kilga :/ 

How is this true?

claiming miller early means you aren't a danger to scum role-wise. 

***

Kilga, I see you used ##evict on Zakeri.  Is that something you can talk about? 

***

Votes:
Raikaria ( - SB, Kilgamayan, Sky_Paladin, Zakeri, BT, Schezo, Cheez8, Raikaria (LYNCH!)
Serela (2) - ActionDan, BigBangMeteor
Sky_Paladin (2) - Darkninjaabc, I have no name
NekoRex (1) - Dormio
Not Voting (2): NekoRex, Serela

I've coloured myself and Kilga green for obvious reasons.  If we believe ActionDan about being miller, it has...no bearing on the vote analysis, I think.  It just means (maybe) two townies voted for Serela. 

It seems that mostly/only town voted for Raikaria, though.  Zakeri voted for Raikaria as well.  I would expect scum to split their votes as it wasn't their buddy on the line. 

Therefore I'm looking at the lower vote tallies/no votes as more likely to be scum.  ActionDan does fall into that category. 

If I had another cop-shot, I'd want to use it on DNA or I Have No Name.  I seriously considered using it on IHNN but decided that working out Kilga's alignment was a higher priority. 

My next thought is about Dormio's solo-vote on NNR.  Dormio is still pretty neutral to me.  Also, he didn't get involved in any of the major wagons (possibly because he had himself been one earlier in the day).  I think if he was scum he probably would have joined in one of those.  Instead he voted for NNR because...actually I'm not sure why.  His post doesn't state reasons. 

Lastly, after the big fuss that was made about unvoting without having a better case was made, I was surprised to see NekoNekoRex do exactly that.  He never replaced his vote or helped with Raikaria/Sky_Paladin lynches. 

There was some conversation between Serela and Zakeri when Serela cancelled their vote.  This post from Zakeri is trying to help Serela place a vote.  It seems odd.  Serela never place their vote after that.  It seems like hand-holding.  I just, I don't know what else to call it.  It looks wrong. 

I see we have a neighbour's quicktopic again.  Not sure what to think about this.  If I was a mod I would make sure that there'd be a scum in the neighbour quicktopic. 

Cut by Serela asking Kilga the same question. 

[ActionDan]

##Vote: ActionDan Not buying it. Relying on flavor to save you is pretty terrible,  especially when could easily have been provided a fakeclaim or somesuch. It's even worse you claimed miller defensively, instead of announcing it ED1.

There is no reason why this case shouldn't horribly reek of scum.

this is derp town imo

[Serela]

skypaladin:Of course mostly town voted for Raikaria, out of 15 people only 3 are likely scum. Anyway while we do have more flips then expected at this point I think it's a bit early to try to use votecount analysis.

Also, being unvoted at the end of the day is justifiable because the Raikaria wagon was L-1 so you don't want people hammering it just to place their vote on him. Also, re:neighbors, it's all WIFOM. There's no actual good reason to believe a neighbor group does or does not have scum in it; it could easily be either way.

In case anyone's wondering, no, I'm not planning on saying anything particularly great until after I get a good night's sleep >_> Sorryyyyyy

[Kilgamayan]

That was a fakevote and not a special command.

I have a pounding headache and generally feel like shit, so no NNR reread right now. Pretty much going straight to bed. Sorry.

[NekoNekoRex]

Lastly, after the big fuss that was made about unvoting without having a better case was made, I was surprised to see NekoNekoRex do exactly that.  He never replaced his vote or helped with Raikaria/Sky_Paladin lynches. 

I unvoted but withheld voting further because the wagon was on the edge. I was prepared to hammer Raikaria if I needed to (you'll note I was still producing discussion), but Raikaria ended up offing herself.

My big suspects starting off today were going to be Darkie and Schezo, because they both only managed to make one or two good content posts and they each had a lot of fluff / worthless votes throughout the day, but I'm going to stick to my thoughts on Dan. The claim looks exactly like scum caught red handed.

[Schezo]

please.  don't let dan stop you.  make your case on me.

[Cheez8]

People (or at least one person so far) have been saying Dan not claiming miller outright caused BT to die and he should've taken that possibility into consideration but I don't really think so. Taking into account the possibility of an investigative role that dies when checking scum is going just a little bit overboard for a miller with no abilities. I don't think more people than Paladin have actually implied something along those lines but still I'm pretty sure that's not the way you should be thinking.

Speaking of which, Paladin's post there has a lot of logic that even I can tell really isn't right. I know bad play =/= scummy play but I'm at least keeping my eye on you.

Anyway.

I tried to gather my thoughts on why Zakeri didn't feel like town during the night phase but it looks like Dormio and Kilga both beat me to the punch (and also brought up some points that I missed too.) I also tried to do the same with Schezo but when I looked back at things most of it more or less amounted to "his scumreads D1 were usually weak and aimless" and honestly that sounds more like D1 play than scum play. Could be both though!

I guess I'm wavering a little bit now but I still don't think Dan is scum. Not that his actions D1 make much sense either way, though...

[Schezo]

so who do you think is scum?

[Sky_Paladin]

I would have appreciated a claim before hand since I could have died.  I know it's a minor detail, but if what Dan is saying is true, BT died and blew his cookies on a dead end.  It's not Dan's fault.  But it's a bad situation that could have been avoided. 

I don't know, I've never seen a miller before. What's the meta-gameplay?  Should millers self-declare?  Or did Dan do the wise thing? 

Speaking of which, Paladin's post there has a lot of logic that even I can tell really isn't right. I know bad play =/= scummy play but I'm at least keeping my eye on you.

Can you please clarify exactly what logic "really isn't right"? 

I am considering to unvote Dan because I think we should exhaust our options of likely-scum before deciding to lynch him as possibly-scum.  However, there was one point that I didn't see a satisfactory answer to yet. 

Earlier in Day 1, Dan had asked Cheez8 specifically how many scum he thought there was. 

What is the reason for this? 

[Sky_Paladin]

To pre-emptively answer Schezo, I am looking at I Have No Name as my first pick.  I am ambivalent about Zakeri because of the hand-holding thing and the vote switching that Kilga pointed out. 

[Cheez8]

so who do you think is scum?

Right now? Probably Zakeri above anybody else. After that, maybe you or Paladin. I thought I made that clear enough.

Can you please clarify exactly what logic "really isn't right"?

Well, glancing through: Not claiming miller shouldn't risk accidentally killing a cop in most cases. I normally wouldn't expect more than one role in any game to provide a false "town" alignment so we're probably fairly safe operating on the assumption that Kilga is town. Nothing Dan said should call the validity of that into question. Dormio was still never a major wagon. If empty unvotes really are an issue, realize that there were many more empty unvotes than the two you pointed out. In fact, with those two there was a good reason for them to hold off on voting Raikaria if they weren't certain about lynching him then and there. If I was mod I wouldn't be particularly concerned with whether or not I put a scum in the neighbor group and we really can't come to any conclusions like that without being the mod anyway.

I also can't tell why you think the people who didn't vote for Raikaria are more likely to be scum but I don't know what the right logic there is anyway (and with votecount stuff I don't even know if there IS a set "right logic" to use. I also may possibly be biased against votecount stuff in general now. >_>)

[I have no name]

I don't like ActionDan being 'cleared' (or given a pass) by roles because that's exactly what he did in Idolm@ster mafia, and that turned out to result in him winning as ITP.  Might be valid, but it's fresh in my mind.

From there, still not liking Sky Paladin that much, likewise with Schezo.  I guess I should look at Zakeri and Cheez some more too, though I wouldn't say it's a guarantee that there's a scum on the Raikaria wagon (I remember a game here, TD Mafia, where I was lynched D1...by 8 town).

Sky marking SB as green in the VC is odd-he's not confirmed anything from any perspective but his own.  Anyway, withholding my vote until I read things some more.

[Sky_Paladin]

Sky marking SB as green in the VC is odd-he's not confirmed anything from any perspective but his own.

...what the?

That's a mistake.  When I was using the BB code I must have seen the SB and assumed it was me (SP).  I definitely have not given SB a clear as town at this point. 

[ActionDan]

I don't like ActionDan being 'cleared' (or given a pass) by roles because that's exactly what he did in Idolm@ster mafia, and that turned out to result in him winning as ITP.  Might be valid, but it's fresh in my mind.

From there, still not liking Sky Paladin that much, likewise with Schezo.  I guess I should look at Zakeri and Cheez some more too, though I wouldn't say it's a guarantee that there's a scum on the Raikaria wagon (I remember a game here, TD Mafia, where I was lynched D1...by 8 town).

Sky marking SB as green in the VC is odd-he's not confirmed anything from any perspective but his own.  Anyway, withholding my vote until I read things some more.

##Vote IHNN

very clearly different circumstances. I'd say you're too chicken to take a view one way or the other.

[Schezo]

Yeah well ya see Cheez.  You need to actually vote someone so I know what you really think.  Talk is cheap and all.

IHNN hello?  Are we reading the same game?  Dan is p much only suspected because of roles and he's being unvoted because his play up until now wasn't that damnable.  What is the point of this post if you're not caught up?  Like you don't even say what you don't like about me so all I can do is just go "alright..."

[Cheez8]

Oh right. Derp.

##Vote: Zakeri

[I have no name]

Dormio's case on Zakeri is convincing-I was reading him as pretty null before.
Sticking to my gut on Cheez-i.e. very likely not scum (read: town, but not 100% sure).

From a scum pov you didn't lock into anything since all you have to do is incorporate night spirit into your claim. 
hmm.

Schezo is playing like ActionDan today >_>.  I suspect him more than ActionDan and he seemed to be softpushing for ActionDan (while making an empty follow-the-cop-esque vote!)  Not sure what to think, since he literally never suspected Dan D1.  If Schezo flips red I'd begrudgingly give Dan a pass.  Actually I don't know what to think any more, play feels...off but I can't pinpoint why.  Apparently the strikethrough stuff was because I misinterpreted but the events surrounding Dan-but it's still my thought process and showing that shows I have one, as inaccurate as the basis for it was.
SkyPaladin...I don't know what to think.  There's a lot of effort but it almost feels like effort for the sake of effort?

##Vote: Zakeri

very clearly different circumstances. I'd say you're too chicken to take a view one way or the other.

Or maybe I don't have a view as to which way it goes right now.

Are we reading the same game?

I'm just misinterpreting stuff.  Derp.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

lel

##Unvote
##Vote ActionDan

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Yes, that means I think Dan's miller claim is bullshit. :derp:

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

All right so for those of you who are wondering why I'm posting like this I'm basically just trying out a new style of post because... Well, to be honest, because I'm lazy and I don't actually feel like writing down a formulaic case because that takes way too much effort and it's so much easier to lay down a stream of consciousness and what better way to lay down a stream of consciousness than to just talk. So yeah that's why I'm doing this.
And um... what I was thinking was that Dan is like, you know, making up complete bullshit because like first of all you... uh... A miller claim after you get caught is like... all sorts of terrible. A miller claim after you get caught by something that's not actually guaranteed to have, like, targeted you... Is just all sorts of weird.
I mean, you know, he-Dan could have said all this stuff about how "what if BT targeted someone else", "what if that crumb was not actually targeting him", "what if um... what if there were redirectors in this game or something",  "what if there were all sorts of things just like blocked roles" or whatever I don't even know. I'm not entirely sure where this line of thought was going.
Like, I think he like- I think Dan actually mentioned a framer but I mean he claimed miller so I don't actually see the point. I mean that seems kind of uh... I don't know. To have both a framer and a miller in a game? No...
Also, the fact that there's a weak tracker and a miller. I mean if Dan is seriously town, how mad would BT be right now? I mean seriously. That's like, dude. But...
So yeah. Dan's claim... I don't like it. I mean... you know... You either claim miller at the start or you resign yourself to the fact that you've been copped and you've been caught.
So... yeah. I don't know.
I don't actually get why all these people are just buying his claim immediately. Like, I don't get why he wa-he just said "unvote" and everyone unvoted. Like, I don't get that. I mean that's kind of exactly what I did last game. Just telling you. Dude. Dude. Unvote. Dude.
Anyway. And then um... Also there was the fact that in Magical Madness Mafia, ActionDan... he tried to do the exact same thing when he was scum. You know, just fakes making a miller claim after being like, you know, caught. Just putting that out there. Just, yeah, putting that out there.
Now, what else was I going to say... I also wanted to say that Zakeri is probably scum. Yes. I mean I know that Kilga made a case but I made my case first and my case is awesome. So you people should read it. Because it makes sense. I think. Hopefully. Probably. Maybe. I don't know.
Either way Zakeri is probably scum and I think that... I don't know when I was reading over Sky Paladin's posts yesterday they... Something about them just didn't sit right with me. Like, um... I think it was his first post or maybe his second I'm not entirely sure I'm just working off memory here but um... Sky Paladin made that post about how he wasn't sure about hammering (supporting the quickwagon) me because, you know, I might not be scum but it's just like... Dude. Are you, like, serious here?
But that's not really like an argument because that's just something he did. So what did he do, what did he do?
Uh...........................
There was like those things, um... Let me just quickly grab his posts. Like, there was some stuff that I didn't like in it. Um...
His day one posts day one posts day one posts....
Oh yeah. His "bait". His waiting for-waiting to see who was jumping off the Dormio wagon was like... That was so... Not quite... Forced isn't the word for it but that was so like, you know... Opportunistic. Or something.
Like, it looked-it just looked really, really bad to me because like, are you seriously going to say that scum must be within here and just create a list to lynch out of from early day 1.
I don't understand the agenda behind that. That's like, not good. Not good at all.
And um... See like he immediately jumps for-votes for Serious Bananas who jumps off the wagon and votes for him for being really weird because he was being really weird and it's just like... That's all sorts of yuck and disgusting. I mean... Yeah, no...
Also, also, also. There was something else I wanted to say about ActionDan. Uh...
He... That thing he did with the ignoring Zakeri. Like, completely.
Well this-I mean I guess it looks a lot more bad if you buy into my theory of "Zakeri is scum" but yeah that's still a thing. I think.
So yeah, I'm just going to try posting like this once. See how it goes. It seems to work for Serela at getting him lynched day 1 so let's hope that I don't meet the same fate.
See ya.
And if you listened to this I don't even know, like, why you want to listen to my voice for six minutes but thanks for listening to all of it I guess? Yay!