Author Topic: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition (Pesco, Affinity Wins)  (Read 29646 times)

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #120 on: April 14, 2010, 12:17:35 AM »
Ah, you're right. Not quite as damning but even broaching the insane option doesn't seem very good.


FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #121 on: April 14, 2010, 12:21:12 AM »
In what way? Note that we're in mylo, so it's in no way too early for him to win the game by getting me hammered.
Claiming cop as the first claim when there are no confirmed (i.e. dead) PRs is insanely risky. Considering the information already out there against him, a counterclaim probably has a better than 50% chance of getting him killed (since I seem to be the only one who thinks Pesco's hesitation in voting a Townie is a Town tell).

UK: The 'not killing Kiro' theory only really holds if scum knows a doc is out there and liable to be fooled. Otherwise they've dropped a kill for nothing, so I think it's more likely that you just guessed right.

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #122 on: April 14, 2010, 12:24:26 AM »
Note how I said that Kiro is 90+% confirmed in my eyes. I'm just allowing for outliers.

And it would mostly depend on who counterclaimed, really, with regards to pesco preemptively counterclaiming a cop.

But, as I said, reserving judgement til claims end.


Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #123 on: April 14, 2010, 12:26:26 AM »
(since I seem to be the only one who thinks Pesco's hesitation in voting a Townie is a Town tell).
Somewhat glad you brought this up, because this could be another point against him depending on how you paint it. Since Pesco is scum, he obviously knew K4U was town. Perhaps he was waiting for somebody else to vote her so it didn't look like he was the one starting a wagon on a townie? He was already under slight, if not silly, suspicion at that point.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #124 on: April 14, 2010, 12:54:41 AM »
Since Pesco is scum, he obviously knew K4U was town. Perhaps he was waiting for somebody else to vote her so it didn't look like he was the one starting a wagon on a townie?
That would make it a charge of cheerleading, worse still than actually leading the mislynch (because you're deliberately trying to avoid association with it).

Affinity

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #125 on: April 14, 2010, 01:15:15 AM »
Massclaiming?  I'm Rin Kaenbyou, Vanilla Townie.

Roukanken is my prime suspect for now, on the account that the switch from post #68 to #82 is horrible; including the throwaway meta points and the rather useless statement that 'if pesco is town nothing can be gained from his lynch etc.', which applies to everyone.  Also, the use of the process of elimination to conclude that me and huh what are scum is also laughable, seeing that pesco is not a confirmed cop yet (buying it because of meta doesn't change matters), especially since your pairing on the first day is pesco/K4U.  Smacks of very fluid opinions, as usual.  Sudden clearing of pesco on the basis of 'hesitation of voting K4U', when he used that as a reason to vote him yesterday, is also very very bad. (e.g pesco could have been waiting for other wagons, etc.)

##Vote: Roukanken

I am rather skeptical on pesco's copclaim, judging from his posts.  While I said that his questioning seemed town at first, later posts show him avoiding the main accusations levelled against him.  For example

Quote
Maybe the dust of this has settled too Quickly. (Wtf is up the Q on all the campus computers). Kiro's main gripe with me is that I unvoted Rou. But what was my vote on Rou for in the first place? It was from RVS and since we're out of that, why would my unvote be unnecessary? I have no intention of lynching Rou yet. We've seen L-1 approach very Quickly and if my vote stayed there, Rou would get lynched by consensus of 3 people, not a proper majority.

The point was not the unvote, but the act of not voting K4U at that time even after  giving reasons for one.  Seemingly mock questioning by Rou gives no results.  A copclaim seems like a convenient holy grail to free himself from potential entanglement.

Furthermore, I think huhwhat's reactions to the copclaim is rather town; he has brought up decent, original analysis, and, as he has pointed out, is just as if not less fluffy than pesco has ever been.  Going for a pesco/Rou scumpair, but I'm more sure about Rou (pesco can also give us an investigation result again tomorrow, which can only help town).

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #126 on: April 14, 2010, 01:19:26 AM »
Affinity's latest post fills me with...unease. Regardless, Kiro, claim


Kiro

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #127 on: April 14, 2010, 01:35:19 AM »
Vanilla Townie for me. Now everyone, commence writing your posts!

And holy youchrist Zakeri, your avatar is awesome.

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #128 on: April 14, 2010, 01:43:46 AM »
Here's the thing.

Affinity is almost certainly scum. He is diverting attention from the 1 v. 1 that SHOULD be between Pesco and HW. We have a 50% chance of lynching scum there. Outside of that set...actually is a 100% chance for him if he's protown, and a 50% chance to everyone else.

I didn't think that one through did I.

So, here's what we likely have:
Pesco - Cop?
Rou - VT?
Affinity - VT?
HW - VT? or mafia?
Kiro - VT
UK - Doctor

I know those last two are true. We have two subdivisions here
HW - VT or Mafia
Pesco - Cop or Mafia

We know that there is a high liklihood only one scum is in this area.

Roukanken - VT or Mafia
Affinity - VT or Mafia

We also know by PoE the other scum is likely here.

This is all information, but it's good to have out there. I think that it might be wise to resolve the cop vs. guilty situation first, but I don't fault Affinity for voting who is essentially certainly scum from a town point of view.

I'll reread Pesco and HW sometime tomorrow, I'd advise others to do the same.


Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #129 on: April 14, 2010, 01:53:36 AM »
That would make it a charge of cheerleading, worse still than actually leading the mislynch (because you're deliberately trying to avoid association with it).
Wait, what? I'm not too sure what you're saying here. If you're accusing me of cheerleading, then uh, what? I never actually supported a K4U lynch, I saw Pesco as a bigger target instead for reasons I explained (though in a later post, derp <_< ). Not sure how I was cheerleading, or how I could even try to avoid association with a mislynch since as far as I see it I had little to do with K4U's lynch in the first place. I gave my opinion on it but I didn't actually support it (otherwise I would have, you know, voted her over Pesco). If you could explain where you're getting this from that'd be appreciated.

Pretty sure of Pesco/Rou scumteam at this point, already posted a few theories about Pesco/Rou right before Pesco copclaimed and now that I know that Pesco is scum and Rou has derped around some more (his sudden constant refusal to even consider Pesco suspicious is odd, and "Affinity/huh what are scum by process of elimination" is really silly, although I guess it kind of makes sense since he counted out the two people who are actually the most scummy!) they seem a bit more likely. Would like Pesco lynched before Rou, though, because I'm absolutely positive Pesco is scum and I'm not sure I like the idea of a phony cop alive during the final day (and I'm kinda confused why Affinity does and wants Rou to die first instead?)

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #130 on: April 14, 2010, 01:56:24 AM »
Well, there is a logic to what Affinity wants. At any rate, I never said that an HW/Affinity team was the only one possible with you. I merely said you and Pesco are unlikely to be scum together, and Rou and Affinity are unlikely to be scum together.

Affinity and Pesco or HW works. Rou and Pesco or HW works (though the latter is unlikely)

But, it'll come down to scumhunting here.


UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #131 on: April 14, 2010, 02:06:48 AM »
Actually, I'ma register a gut read now.

Affinity and HW scum.

HW's latest post about "not wanting to keep a phony cop" alive smacks of "Oh shit he might catch my buddy and we'll lose and I don't want to die". I also realized how...Affinity is basically defending HW without outright saying he is.

But, again, this is before I've reread, so yeah.


Affinity

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #132 on: April 14, 2010, 02:33:06 AM »
As for the supposed mistake of not voting either pesco or HW, it's actually not so different since UK and Kiro are more or less confirmed due to the doc protect.  I'm just saying that if pesco is indeed the cop here, it would lead to an additional investigational result, and even if he is scum, that's one more result to point out contradictions from.  The 50-50 between me and Roukanken should be more favorable.

Quote
Affinity is basically defending HW without outright saying he is.

I am defending HW since it is a 50-50 between pesco and him; pesco is more scummy and so defending him is alright in this situation.  None of my supposed defense is without relation to pesco's conduct.

Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #133 on: April 14, 2010, 02:36:18 AM »
Except that, uh, if the scumteam turns out to be Pesco/Affinity instead of Pesco/Rou (seems unlikely, but still), then we'll lose. I'm currently neutral in regards to Affinity, but if Rou is innocent he could easily be trying to goad us into getting a mislynch today so we don't have a chance tomorrow. Lynching Pesco would be much safer.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #134 on: April 14, 2010, 02:45:00 AM »
and the rather useless statement that 'if pesco is town nothing can be gained from his lynch etc.', which applies to everyone
I've already explained that Scum!Pesco has no reason to hesitate voting for Town!K4U when there's no pressure.

Quote from: Affinity
Sudden clearing of pesco on the basis of 'hesitation of voting K4U', when he used that as a reason to vote him yesterday, is also very very bad.
That was on the suspicion of a K4U/Pesco scumpair, with Pesco trying to not-really press his buddy. With K4U cleared on flip the point doesn't really hold.

Quote from: huh what
Wait, what? I'm not too sure what you're saying here. If you're accusing me of cheerleading, then uh, what? I never actually supported a K4U lynch
It was in response to your 'Maybe Pesco was just waiting for another wagon to show up!' point. If he had done that it would be blatant cheerleading.

Like I said, huh what/Affinity is the pair that makes the most sense to me. Huh what moreso based on Pesco's cop result, but I'm finding it difficult to believe UK's claim is fake or that Scum!Kiro would NK which leaves Affinity behind anyway.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #135 on: April 14, 2010, 02:46:14 AM »
EBWOP: Scum!Kiro wouldn't NK, sorry.

Affinity

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #136 on: April 14, 2010, 02:49:19 AM »
@huh what:: But equivalently, what if pesco is a town cop and you are scum with Roukanken? (seems unlikely, but cases have happened before in Bamboo Forest Mafia)  I can understand things from your point of view if you are town, but to me, the other 50-50 seems more favorable.

@Rou: The one thing I do not understand is the absolute faith you place on pesco.  Saying that pesco had no reason to hold the vote is a WIFOM in itself; it could be to confuse as it could be to wait for another wagon to jump on.  Clearing him based on this in contrast to the K4U/pesco scumpair you pushed seems very forced and unreasonable.  As for the not-really-pressing; scum can do that to his buddy as well as he can do it to town to give the illusion of scumhunting, for instance.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #137 on: April 14, 2010, 02:59:38 AM »
The one thing I do not understand is the absolute faith you place on pesco.  Saying that pesco had no reason to hold the vote is a WIFOM in itself; it could be to confuse as it could be to wait for another wagon to jump on.
Rather than latch on to a rather decent point about K4U? I don't recall Scum!Pesco ever being particularly hesitant.

Quote from: Affinity
As for the not-really-pressing; scum can do that to his buddy as well as he can do it to town to give the illusion of scumhunting, for instance.
Except that illusion usually works better with a vote. Regardless of affiliation Pesco's pressing but not voting is bad play, but it's less likely to be bad scummy play which is what matters.

UncertainJakutten

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #138 on: April 14, 2010, 03:00:44 AM »
Here's the deal. Given what we know, and barring some ridiculously risky gambit from Pesco (which is actually why I want to resolve the cop/guilty thing first), Affinity and Rou can't be scum together. Therefore, their most logical vote is each other, though they'll eventually have to agree to vote for whoever gets lynched (duh).

While I am open to Affinity/Pesco (He conveniently sidesteps the issue of voting Pesco, though there are town motivated reasons possible for that), it's not as likely as Affinity/HW. Same with all names reversed for Rou/Pesco/HW.



Affinity

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #139 on: April 14, 2010, 03:11:34 AM »
Quote
Except that illusion usually works better with a vote.

True, but one can give that illusion without wanting to commit, and not wanting to commit is often a scumtell by any means. 

A more important question; why would you say that pesco is surely town from that minor observation?

Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #140 on: April 14, 2010, 03:19:44 AM »
1. Affinity - (0)
2. Uncertain Kitten - (0)
3. Pesco - (1) UncertainKitten, huh what
4. Huh What - (2) Pesco, Roukanken
5. Roukanken - (1) Affinity
6. Kiro - (0)

Not Voting - (2) UncertainKitten, Kiro

With Six players, it four votes for a majority.
You have, like, more than forty hours left, though (Too tired to count).


Quote from: Kiro 127
And holy youchrist Zakeri, your avatar is awesome.

I know! Doesn't she look so precious?

Kiro

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #141 on: April 14, 2010, 04:55:49 AM »
Here's the quick breakdown: I think Pesco and Rou are scum. And I was going to talk about Rou, HW, and Pesco, but I've cut down on the HW and Pesco sections and decided I really only need to talk about Rou. Pesco follows suit as Rou's scumbuddy.

---

Let's "Keep It Simple Stupid." Rou's switch and hammer is downright scummy. Rou voted Pesco earlier and then at 9 minutes before deadline with a L-1 tie in the balance, hammers a Townie. Implications are obvious. Let's review his reasoning for switching to K4U.

I've been giving it some thought, and after HW's latest input I'm considering shifting to K4U for the day. lolgutvote is still pretty horrible, and her refusal to do anything other than stick to her gut does nothing to help Town. It's like she's trying to get away with the Assassin game meta of 'I know what I'm doing, so I can do whatever I like'.

Notice that Rou first qualifies his thoughts with "after HW's input." Why was huh what's reasoning enough to deter your suspicions about Pesco? Feels like a deflection of responsibility right there. You kinda take potshots at me too, but you didn't explicitly say "after Kiro's input" either. And in examining the quote above, the points he levies against K4U are bad things about her, but not scummy things. gutvote is bad, but not necessarily scummy in Day 1. Stick to her gut is bad, but not necessarily scummy in Day 1. And the meta comment is only speculating. And of course, she flipped Town. So his reasoning to vote K4U is very flawed.

Plus I'm pretty sure Pesco knows better than to deliberately try pissing me off when he's scum. So yeah.

What? I don't understand this at all. If that's the primary thing that caused you to clear Pesco above K4U, then I've got nothing else to say except that it absolutely sucks.

In Day 2, Rou believes Pesco's claim so fully that he votes huh what to L-2 which would ordinarily be the threshold we don't cross with these numbers. Impression is that in his relative haste to vote, he's trying to reinforce this case for the rest of us. Where's the restraint Rou? Rou's reasoning is pretty much stated in #116: that it'd be too much of a gambit to do. But objectively, that's not true. Pesco was already a top suspect heading into Day 2 so the gambit of having to compete with a rival copclaim is only a small risk to him considering how close he was to the chopping block in Day 1. And let's face it, meta wise, Pesco is capable of doing it. Why are you not willing to consider that? The KISS answer is that you are scum with him and this is an all-in move.

Rou's insistence on Pesco's roleclaim being true feels too brazen to be that of careful Townie play. Because if we lynch Pesco and Pesco flips scum, Rou shoots himself up the suspicion list possibly dooming Town. I am not willing to believe Town Roukan could make this kind of a mistake: that he believes in his meta impressions of Pesco so much to not only clear him in Day 2, but at the end of a Day 1 as well when there is nothing solid to work off of. And it's not comforting to see this type of defense continue in #134 and #137.

---

Regarding huh what: there's less objective information to work with, but the short of it is that his statements don't make it feel like he has a scumbuddy to talk to. The back and forth with UK feels pretty free-form and unrestrained on his part. UK kinda baits HW in certain ways and HW gets caught up with it a bit, yet his answers are decent.

Let's also not ignore the simple fact that he could have hammered K4U, but decided to vote Pesco instead. He was not on the mislynch wagon and while his #79 is hard to read, it makes sense from him saying it as a Townie so it passes.

You're all finding inconsistencies with him in Day 2, but that feels more like a Townie adjusting to new information rather than part of a scumpair with a plan in mind. His mistakes like saying the cop could be insane are not scummy mistakes and not even really possible scumtells. They're just null slipups. Otherwise, his points in Day 2 are all fair.

In other words, he hasn't voted poorly and he hasn't said anything anything that makes me suspicious. He actually feels the most Townie to me out of everyone minus the fact that UK is the doc.

---

Regarding Pesco: Pesco's actions I have decided are not really reliable indicators of anything. His spacy behavior is fitting for both a scum playing loosely and a cop sort of treading the middle ground to avoid actually being killed on N1. His early vote on K4U matches either scenario and so does his late Day 1 questioning of HW and early Day 2 actions. So I don't feel there's anything objective enough to bring to the table on that and don't want to engage in WIFOM circles with him.

But on a personal level, there are 2 things that make me lean scum on him. One, is obviously my feelings of huh what being innocent as stated above. Two, is that acting slightly scummy and then coming out with the roleclaim on a LYLO day is just terrible strategizing. He'd have to be absolutely confident that we lynched Scum Day 1, but judging from his halfhearted comments about K4U and other players in general, it doesn't really feel like he made the effort to scumhunt to that end. That in itself is also scummy.

---

I can understand why Affinity wants to lynch Rou first. Without the copclaim conflict, Rou is probably the single most scummy player in the game now. And a Rou scumflip almost certainly seals the deal that Pesco is lying since Rou pushed hard enough for HW's lynch. Scum Rou's actions don't make sense for him to bus Scum HW because 1) he wouldn't have bothered to do the hammer switch on Day 1 since both wagons would have been Townie and 2) he would have had no idea Pesco was actually a cop and investigated HW and probably would have gone against Pesco to secure the Day 2 mislynch instead for the win.

Let's face it, the Townies amongst us can argue circles between Pesco and huh what, but if we can all agree on Rou as Scum, just lynch Rou first and logic pretty much dictates that Pesco follows. That's kind of how I see it. Affinity doesn't strike me nearly as scummy as Rou and I'm not willing to believe that Affinity is just ultra lurking scum while Rou is playing the absolute worst game as a Townie as possible.

Kiro

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #142 on: April 14, 2010, 04:56:14 AM »
Oh god, it didn't look that long in Notepad...

Pesco

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #143 on: April 14, 2010, 04:57:51 AM »
Skim read, and here's the deal.

There has been no counterclaim to my cop claim and does my investigate of HW make sense to you guys? For the reasons I gave in my vote post, that was why I investigated him.

He's the scum in front of me, so that's all for me today.

Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #144 on: April 14, 2010, 05:10:02 AM »
I'm okay with lynching Rou since I've already said that I think he's the most likely partner for Pesco. I still feel really iffy about Pesco, but if killing off Rou is going to actually get things done rather faster rather than arguments regarding me and Pesco, I'm willing to support a Rou lynch.

Come to think of it, killing off Rou may actually be better. If he flips scum then there is no real reason for Pesco to not be lynched the following day, while if we lynch Pesco, we'll have to choose between Affinity and Rou. The only thing that worries me is that I know Pesco is scum while I'm only just really suspicious of Rou. Risk might be worth taking, though.

Going to hold off from changing my vote for now, though. Gonna let UK reread and Pesco actually give a response that isn't like 2-3 sentences.

Kiro

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #145 on: April 14, 2010, 05:15:35 AM »
Skim read, and here's the deal.

There has been no counterclaim to my cop claim and does my investigate of HW make sense to you guys? For the reasons I gave in my vote post, that was why I investigated him.

He's the scum in front of me, so that's all for me today.
meets
Regarding Pesco: Pesco's actions I have decided are not really reliable indicators of anything. His spacy behavior is fitting for both a scum playing loosely and a cop sort of treading the middle ground to avoid actually being killed on N1. His early vote on K4U matches either scenario and so does his late Day 1 questioning of HW and early Day 2 actions. So I don't feel there's anything objective enough to bring to the table on that and don't want to engage in WIFOM circles with him.
I planned for Pesco's response. Btw Pesco, from your viewpoint, who's HW's scumbuddy and why?

Pesco

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #146 on: April 14, 2010, 06:08:12 AM »
The biggest candidates from my seat for HW's buddy are Affinity and Rou.

Rou's knee-jerk vote could easily be scumRou going oshitoshittheresacopandhecaughtscum. D1, his parroting shows weak scumhunting and little autonomous thought.

Affinity was pretty absent D1 and his presence can not be called all that great. You can only lurk if you can deliver, Affinity hasn't delivered enough. Starting a counter wagon to investigation results is pretty damn scummy.

Affinity is probably HW's buddy. Rou is meta-scummy while Affinity is factual scummy. HW cheering Rou's lynch simply boosts this likelihood.

Who is HW's buddy according to Kiro?

Kiro

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #147 on: April 14, 2010, 06:15:33 AM »
By process of elimination, it'd have to be Affinity. But I do not believe Affinity/HW to be the case over Pesco/Rou for reasons I've already mentioned.

Pesco

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Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #148 on: April 14, 2010, 06:49:40 AM »
Here's another point: townies don't bargain with uncertainties when they know 100% someone is scum.

Affinity

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  • ... but I have promises to keep.
Re: Defend the Maiden - C9 Mafia edition
« Reply #149 on: April 14, 2010, 07:14:56 AM »
@pesco:  Point is I am not sure that HW is 100% scum, because you could be scum too.  What I'm sure of is that Roukanken is 100% scum from my point of view.