Suzumiya Haruhi No Yuutsu Mafia: DAY FIVE!

[Edible]

[Kefit]

Well, that's about what I expected if Edi wasn't the last scum, seeing as both Zakeri and Rou have made well known their desire to rape the shit out of me. Should be easy enough for whichever one of you is scum to rely on the other to place the first vote, right? I highly advise backing off of this attitude lest one of you wants to be humiliated come the end of game.

Rou, I've got a couple of questions for you. Your knee-jerk response may be not to answer them, but we're now on the last day. I do not see a need to hide information for any longer.

1) Do you have any confirmation that Zakeri's alleged doubling power was actually effective? That is, that it actually did what it purported to do? If so, how and when has the doubling been confirmed?

2) What is your role? I believe that you are the only person who hasn't claimed at this point - or indeed who has been alive in the last couple of days who hasn't claimed.

By the way, you guys may have noticed that the roles in this game have generally been strange or had unusual quirks to them. Mine is no different. In addition to my nightvig, I am also immune to night kills. My wonderful Sneering Bastard "ability" (you know, the one that makes me come up as scum to any Cop investigations) presumably exists to counteract this disadvantage. I was trying pretty hard on day three to get the scum to waste their next night kill on me, but it didn't work out. Of course, I still die if #scum = #town at night.

It should be pretty obvious why I haven't revealed this until now. But what you may not realize is that I actually did claim this power earlier:

Kefit is now in quite a bad pickle,
To kill or not kill, you guys are fickle,
Edi wants night shot,
Rou says I cannot,
Am I thrown to wolves by you mob of dickles?

Take the fifth word of the fifth line, the fourth word of the fourth line, the third word of the third line, the second word of the second line, and the first word of the first line and arrange in that order:

Wolves Cannot Night Kill Kefit

I'll post some more thoughts after Rou answers my questions.

[WHMZakeri]

I'd like to hear what Rou's role is as well before I dive into today.

[Jam-Kiske]

I don't even get flavor for my death?
D:

Maybe eventually, I'm kinda burned out

[FinnKaenbyou]

Welp, looks like it's time to claim now. Yuki Nagato, Townie Data Analyser. Or at least I would be if Haruhi hadn't plugged me into a mains socket as a joke. Now I'm a Townie Faulty Data Analyser.
Put simply, I was given four investigations (listed as A, B, C and D), and told that they could potentially be one of 5 different types - Sane Affiliation, Insane Affiliation, Naive Affiliation, Paranoid Affiliation, or Rolecop. I could use one every night.

On Night 1, I was given mod confirmation that any investigation I had could now be used twice in 1 night. Seeing the opportunity for two investigations instead of one, I decided to investigate Pesco and Bard with investigation C. Pesco turned up scum, hence me going after him the next day, while Bard (who I checked to see if I could resolve the Edible/Bard incident in any way) flipped Town and thus slipped out of my suspicions.
I figured Pesco had done enough that was suspicious that it was worth assuming the result was Sane, and if he flipped Town then it was an insane investigation and therefore Bard was obvscum.

Night 2, I used investigation A on Sodium, which returned him as a One-Shot Vig. This is what led to the D3 shenanigans. >_>

By Night 3, things were getting awkward. My only remaining possible investigations were Naive, Paranoid and Insane, and I had no way of telling one from the other. Given that by now Kefit had already claimed that he returned scum in all investigations I didn't see the point in investigating him, and threw a look at Jam (investigation D, if it's relevant). She returned as Town, which I can now assume was my Naive investigation.

Which leads me to tonight, getting another boost from Zak. I figure to myself 'hey, I may as well use my last investigation. Now that I've got two targets it might actually be useful!' So with nothing else to do, I targeted Kefit and Zak. Both returned as scum, which pretty much confirms my last investigation was paranoid. >_>

So yeah, that's just about everything I have. Still find it really hard to see Zak as scum given that his role has been confirmed to me twice, and Kefit doubling up his claim to add 'Oh, BTW, scum never had a chance of killing me' doesn't win me over in terms of clearing him.

[WHMZakeri]

This really goes a long way to explaining your vote for Kefit on day three which back then made me facepalm. It also fits in perfectly with just about everything else you've done, so I can't see how this could possibly be a lie.

So not only am I half certain Kefit is scum, I'm completely certain Rou is not.

First things first: My case from yesterday still stands. In 480 he defends Jam as town (Based on meta no less, now that I look back), but in 496 He votes Jam as the worst playing individual still in the game. I can really only see this as a backtrack that was spawned by the fact the Kefit was lying about his shot.

On top of that, there's no part of his role that seems townie to me. He claims Miller along with Vig, in which Miller is short for "Please don't investigate me." And just recently claimed bulletproof which is a role often given to the Serial killer, and in some cases with a secondary kill, to the godfather of the mafia. On top of this, we have no proof that any part of Kefit's role is true (with the possible exception of the miller role, if we assume Rou's last investigation is insane) but even if we could tell, it wouldn't really mean anything.

Besides, even when you consider inactivity, the first two days of play really don't look like a Miller//Vig/Bulletproof trying to get scum's attention for the nightkill.

Basically I don't see how it couldn't be Kefit.
##Vote: Kefit

[Kefit]

This really goes a long way to explaining your vote for Kefit on day three which back then made me facepalm. It also fits in perfectly with just about everything else you've done, so I can't see how this could possibly be a lie.

How does finding out that Sodium is a vig explain a vote on me for day three? So Rou knew that Sodium was a vig. Guess what? We all knew that after Sodium used his vig power! If this information somehow made it so clear to Rou that I was scum, then why didn't anyone else with the same information vote for me?

And you're completely certain that Rou is not scum now? You must have missed the hole in his explanation:

Which leads me to tonight, getting another boost from Zak. I figure to myself 'hey, I may as well use my last investigation. Now that I've got two targets it might actually be useful!' So with nothing else to do, I targeted Kefit and Zak. Both returned as scum, which pretty much confirms my last investigation was paranoid. >_>

Rou claims that he had nothing else to do except use his double investigation on me and you (Kefit and Zak). But wait a second here - Edible was alive last night! Rou had another viable option in targeting me and Edible, or even in targeting Zak and Edible. At this point Zak's townieness must have been nearly proven to Rou, so me and Edible would have made a lot more sense than me and Zak.

I also find Rou's story to be a little too fabricated in the sense that everyone he targeted died immediately afterward. In other words, they didn't stick around for long, meaning that Rou wouldn't have to justify much of his own behavior regarding the people he had investigated.

Rou's story works out fairly conveniently if he's actually a scum rolecop. First the scum kill Bard, the roleblocker. Why kill Bard on night 2? He wasn't doing anything up to that point. But killing him makes sense if scum know he's the roleblocker. Then scum kill huh what, the doctor. Why kill huh what, people were annoyed d3 that he wasn't doing much of anything! But man, if they know he's the doctor then he's the prime choice (in other words, Rou would have actually investigated huh what rather than sodium).

I'm I sure that this is what actually happened? No. But I believe it is a possibility. It is a possibility that discounts Rou's story from completely clearing himself. It is a possibility that should be considered, among others.

[Kefit]

By the way, my Jam vote was the result of rereading the entire thread. A greater understanding of the context of her behavior and the Sodium train against her convinced me that there was a possibility that she was scum. While I wasn't entirely convinced that she was scum, it did seem more likely than  any other scum choice.

Besides, I'm sure that you guys would have lynched me yesterday if I had voted for anyone else, what with the way you all just sat there waiting, refusing to do anything until I made my stance known. Seems I was damned either way. Kind of reminds me of that limerick again :p

[WHMZakeri]

You're right, the possibility does exist, but that alone isn't a reason to doubt him.

You do bring up an interesting point though. Rou, you already knew Kefit would turn up scum, so why didn't you target Edible last night?

##Unvote

As for you, Kefit, which of us do you likely think is scum now? Who would you be more willing to vote?

[Kefit]

At this point I would be most willing to vote Rou. The questions I asked him were designed for two purposes:

1) To give us more information on Rou himself; alternatively, to give him the chance to slip up if he is scum and has to fabricate a story.
2) To further solidify your (Zak's) role.

Before Rou answered these questions, I considered some means by which Zak could be faking this role. One that came to mind was if Zak was a False Inventor or some variant thereof. He may have sent Rou a false power, or merely made use of some kind of mod messaging ability (such as was present in Himelander) to lie to Rou about a power doubling. But now Rou has confirmed that not only did he receive the power doubling on both days that Zak said he'd get it, but also that this power was effective.

So at this point Zak's role as a power doubler has basically been confirmed. Either Rou is town, in which case he has no reason to lie about it, or he is scum and thus Zak has no reason to lie about it. While this doesn't prove Zak's alignment, I really can't see how this power could possibly ever belong to scum, especially in a game like this where scum have powers that can be repeatedly abused with the doubling power.

So that leaves me with Rou. And really, I kind of like the way that things fit together if Rou is a scum rolecop. Perhaps he rolecop'd me night one and found out I was bulletproof (he certainly would have no need to actually rolecop Pesco). Since he knew he couldn't kill me at night, he's lead a witch hunt against me ever since I raped the shit out of his scum buddy on day three.

Yeah, it's just a story. But I like stories that fit together conveniently. One such story allowed me to nab Sodium, after all. And I really can't think of any such stories that explain Zak scum at this point.

[FinnKaenbyou]

How does finding out that Sodium is a vig explain a vote on me for day three? So Rou knew that Sodium was a vig. Guess what? We all knew that after Sodium used his vig power! If this information somehow made it so clear to Rou that I was scum, then why didn't anyone else with the same information vote for me?

By the D3 shenanigans, I mean the callout here where I pretty much ask Sodium to shoot Sakana.
As for the vote on you - well, it made sense to me given that a) Sodium had proven his power while you hadn't (and I'll add, you STILL haven't), and b) you conveniently missed out the third-party option in your wall accusing him.

Rou, you already knew Kefit would turn up scum, so why didn't you target Edible last night?

For the sake of testing sanity. By now I was down to either Insane or Paranoid investigations. If Kefit returned Town then it had to be an Insane investigation, and therefore Zak's affiliation was the opposite of what it came across as. Therefore if Zak returned as Town he was the last scum, and if he returned as Scum then it was between Kefit and Edible (again, I trusted Edible over Kefit, but that was assuming Edible even survived the night). If Kefit returned Scum - as he did - it was the paranoid investigation and therefore useless.
As for why I targeted Zak over Edible? Like I said, Edible had been decisive on two different scum trains, so either he was the biggest busser ever or he was just a damn accurate scumhunter. Zak meanwhile had received a clear from me based on role, and given that we apparently had two roleblockers on Town's side (Seriously, UK? Seriously?) it wasn't totally impossible that Zak was scum with a Townie role.

I only see one flipped roleblocker. Where do you see two? Does anyone else see two roleblockers? Cause I sure don't see two roleblockers.

To clarify for whiny people who are saying I interfere too much with the game, Disabler != roleblocker. The confusion may have occured for some odd reason but it's not the case. This is public information somewhere, so I feel comfortable revealing it

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: Also, Kefit, just for the sake of completion, feel like nameclaiming? I can't see a nameclaim looking through your posts.

[Kefit]

I am Fujiwara, Townie NK Immune Miller Vig. No spiffy unique name for my role or anything. Hell, I don't even recognize the character name.

[Kilgamayan]

Hell, I don't even recognize the character name.

[Kefit]

Gee I certainly didn't think of that.

ps haruhi

[FinnKaenbyou]

Okay seriously we need to do something, I only just noticed we don't get an extra-long LYLO day and discussion is dead.

Still intent on voting for Kefit, mainly because I can't come up with any sort of scenario where Zak is scum failing UK being completely out of order with the roles.

In fact, colour me completely convinced by now. If I've messed this up and Zak is somehow scum, I will give him a freaking medal.

##Vote: Kefit

[Kefit]

Still intent on voting for Kefit, mainly because I can't come up with any sort of scenario where Zak is scum failing UK being completely out of order with the roles.

In fact, colour me completely convinced by now. If I've messed this up and Zak is somehow scum, I will give him a freaking medal.

Haha, for once I agree with you, Rou. Zak, you deserve this win if you are the scum.

##Vote: Rou

I'll just make a couple of final points before leaving this in your hands, Zak.

1) Either Rou was bussing hard on Pesco d2, when three scum were remaining, or I was bussing hard on Sodium on d3, when only two scum remained. Which of these scenarios makes more sense? Yes, this is a bit WIFOM, but even with all the WIFOM in the world I can't see scum willingly halve their own ranks when there are only seven people remaining in the game.

2) Your argument here is essentially that my own argument against Sodium was too good. Please consider that I will be graduating from a top tier law school in two months. I have spent the last three years learning how to argue effectively. The idea that my argument is too good should not be a point against me.

[WHMZakeri]

Posting to say "Not it"

Also, that I'm going to be spending the rest of the day rereading.

[FinnKaenbyou]

1) Either Rou was bussing hard on Pesco d2, when three scum were remaining, or I was bussing hard on Sodium on d3, when only two scum remained. Which of these scenarios makes more sense? Yes, this is a bit WIFOM, but even with all the WIFOM in the world I can't see scum willingly halve their own ranks when there are only seven people remaining in the game.

What did I have to gain from bussing Pesco? I had already been written off as Town by the majority, that's why I got made King D1. Going out of my way afterwards to bus Pesco seems like overkill.
And meanwhile, you had been getting by for two days doing much, offering little to the discussion. Who would discussion turn to after Sodium shot Sakana? Jam would probably end up being lynched, but then it's the same scenario except you haven't offered anything to the conversation and it's possible Sodium's previous misdeeds will damn him anyway. Bussing him D3 gives you a massive clear and lets you away with your lack of content elsewhere, and combined with your apparent uncertainty about shooting Jam N3 allows you to claim having nightkill powers without having to actually prove them.

That's pretty much everything over here, as well. It's down to Zak now.

[Kefit]

One final argument for my case before I leave for the day.

Zak, there's a question I would like you to ask yourself: Why are both Rou and I still alive?  We know now that either Rou or I is scum - which means that the other has been a very powerful force for town, left untouched by scum even after the doctor's death. I will cover both scenarios.

Rou Scum
Rou's been at my throat since d3, and before then was a paragon of townieness. If Rou is scum, then he knew my analysis in my case against Sodium d3 was correct. He also knew that I had a vig power which I was loath to use on Jam (someone he also knew wasn't scum; that is, someone who it would be good for me to use my vig power on in the eyes of the scum). So why didn't he kill me that night? Well, perhaps he was afraid that a doctor would save me. Luckily he got rid of the doctor that night. So why didn't I die last night? Because Rou knew that you were already predisposed towards me, and figured that the two of you vs me would be the easiest final day configuration available for him.

Or we could go with my pet theory that Rou is a rolecop, and he knew that I was bulletproof. Thus, he had to get my lynched if he wanted me gone. Would nicely explain why he waited for me to vote on d4 before he placed his own vote. If I hadn't of voted for Jam, then he would have had a nice excuse to start a wagon against me.

Kefit Scum
Rou's been at my throat since d3, and before then was a paragon of townieness. He's been the largest threat to scum all game, and continues to threaten as he attempts to get me lynched.

Yet I let him live through the first two game nights untouched. Maybe I'm afraid of the doctor on night three, when Rou really started going against me. But was I really too afraid of the doctor to go after Rou on any of the first three game nights? Somehow I luck out and kill the doctor on night three. So why didn't I kill Rou last night? Did I really prefer to keep the two people most against me alive? I'd have nothing but a flimsy WIFOM defense to use in standing up to this lynch mob. Alternatively, I could have killed Rou last night, getting rid of the super townie and leaving a much less biased play group of me, Zak, and Edible. But for some reason I didn't do this.

Which of these situations do you think is more likely? Or is this just more WIFOM? Well yes, it is WIFOM. But that doesn't mean you should discard it out of hand. The general idea behind WIFOM is that a given choice is less immediately advantageous for the scum, but brings with it a lower chance of detection. Thus, a single piece of WIFOM, when taken alone, invites reasonable skepticism. But many pieces of WIFOM will aggregate into an insurmountable hinderance for the scum, as each individual disadvantage adds up. And man, if I'm scum this game then I sure have let a lot of WIFOM disadvantages add up against me.

Don't believe me? Just ask Rou! He's been kind enough to point out possible Kefit WIFOM ever since he got on my case during day three. See here, and here. Of course, I recently took to pointing out potential Kefit WIFOM myself (ie choices I made that would disadvantage scum), such as in the previous paragraph and in this post here.

A Rou scum scenario, on the other hand, would see Rou stopping the WIFOM induced bleeding after the Pesco lynch (a scum bus is essentially a WIFOM situation). At this point, as established town, he had no reason to bring about more disadvantages for the scum. Funny enough, this was the last time Rou would something harmful to the scum, as shortly after this he started driving full speed ahead on the Kefit and Jam train.

So, what makes more sense: Kefitscum wiling to bleed to death in an endless series of needless tricks to fool town, or Rouscum smartly applying a bandage after pulling off one painful trick to affirm his innocence?

[FinnKaenbyou]

Edible/Zak/Kefit is not a safe setup for Scum!Kefit. Look at it this way - Zak is still looking at Kefit after D4, and with my death I'll have confirmed Zak's role and thus Edible has no other target but Kefit. Of the three remaining players, I'm just about the only one you had a valid chance of forcing a mislynch on in Lylo. As for why you didn't hit me N3, there's the simple fact that I went out on a limb protecting someone who turned out to be scum the day before, and there was a good chance Town would do the dirty work for you by pressing me on it.

[WHMZakeri]

All of your current arguments sucks. All of them. I'm talking to both of you.

Comparing a scenario where Rou dies to one where Edible dies is meaningless. Whether Kefit or Rou are scum, killing Edible just plain makes sense. For Rou, it would be because I'm already on the Kefit wagon and switching to an Edible wagon wouldn't make sense. For Kefit, It was between Rou, who started the Pesco case and countered the Sodium case, and Edible who sealed both Pesco's and Sodium's deaths with the third vote on both.

The points between Rou bussing Pesco and Kefit bussing Sodium are rather moot to me. Rou had a lot less to suffer from leading a wagon on pesco as scum, but he also had less to gain from it. The only reason for Scum Rou to do something like that would just be Meta based Fanservice. Kefit however had a lot to gain from bussing Sodium. Giving him the potential for a game wide clear to ride until the end. The fact that Kefit is using this as his argument for why Rou is scum proves this is true.

I can't discount the rolecop theory, but once you think about it, it doesn't necessarily mean Roukan is the role cop. It certain explains huh what's death, and it could potentially be the basis for Bard's death as well (Though, for night one and two deaths, I'd put more stock in the reason being "Least likely to be/cause a mislynch" which Bard would be at that point.)

The only real legitimate scumtell I see from Rou is his chainsaw defense of Sodium. The rest of the game for him is squeaky clean. I'm giving Rou slack for targeting Jam since the only one opposed to a Jam lynch was Jam. Of this, however, Rou's defense of Sodium is completely logical.

Meanwhile, Kefit has been inactive for all of day one and two. Day four, he claims he didn't want to vig based on a meta read of jam, but after a full reread, votes her. This is either a backtrack caused by a lack of vig, or a lucky, if brainless move by town. His case on sodium makes sense, but it predisposes itself to circular logic, which means Kefit's case was either a lucky shot, or started by the knowledge that Sodium is scum in the first place. This isn't a solid point because if Kefit is town and did have a Vig, then he would have on good authority that Sodium is scum due to counterclaims.

In short, the Sodium case is probably the biggest part and the deciding factor in who I vote for, and for both sides it's almost a null tell.

Out of all the things I can say, the only thing that comes to mind is "u?~"

Both because it's the best moe sound effect I can think of to describe how I feel, and because like the real u?, I would give my left nut for two vig shots back to back.

[UncertainJakutten]

Less than 11 hours remaining! Kefit and Rou each have a vote

[WHMZakeri]

I just don't know.

Rou's been posting good posts for twice as long as Kefit has, and Rou has only made one mistake. Kefit obviously hasn't been in enough discussion for me to get a full grasp on his alignment over Rou's, which just goes to show why discussion is so pro-town. I'm going to ##Vote: Kefit for this reason, even though he does have some legitimate excuses for why he hasn't posted much day one.

[Kefit]

gj

[Kitten4u]

Kefit playing Fujiwara, Townie NK Immune Miller Vig has been lynched!

Zakeri playing Sasaki, Townie Doubler endgamed

The scum team of Pesco, MakaiSouvenirBooth, and Roukanken has won the game!

[Kilgamayan]

I might be more upset at how Day 3 was blithely ignored in the days that followed, but I correctly called the entire scum team right after my death (and it's on record for everyone to see) as well as Bard's N2 NK, so I'm pretty happy with myself even though I supremely fucked up my role by not actually using it.

Congrats to Roukan, your play wasn't perfect by any stretch, but you played well enough to win, and ultimately that's what matters.

[GMOFucker: Makin' GMOs To Fuck 'Em]

Derpaderp. gj scum.

@ Rou: Because of my stupidity, I wasn't actually able to protect past D1, so I was really just a generic townie when you killed me despite your investigation. However, I pretty much figured you were scum after Sodium's flip and was planning to go after you D4, so I dunno if you were better off lynching me anyway. (Tbh I doubt people would have listened to me.)

I didn't do that great for my first game (my apologies for D1 and especially N1, that was just kinda dumb), but I'm somewhat glad about my performance on the grounds that I could have been much, much worse.

Also, are we supposed to link to the dead people qt?

[WHMZakeri]

herp derp.

That's all I have to say about my play.

[Kiro]

Let the mods do the linking of stuff. It's their game they ran.