I shall start from the page 10 Wall of Text. Ciato and Tom were indeed scum. Chaore and Bard were not. Neither was Serp, a second string choice. Jam and Alice COULD potentially be the scums I overlooked. I'm still not sold on Kiro town. So, from there we continue.
Further, I will make two posts. The long, unabridged wall post of rereadery, and then a compressed post containing more succinct cases on whatever players I conclude are scum. I'll be looking for three names, and list them in order of lynch preference.
This Kefit post bothers me. He's going with the one scum in Tom's group...but seems to be pushing it onto Kilga. Which seems POINTLESS given the fact that Tom and Kilga were both going to flip. But, the non commission to any reads is probably the worst part.
I'll note it's amazing how many holes in the game there are when you filter out dead players. I obviously am not paying as much attention to their posts as living players, although I do read them.
I'll admit that Alex scum would obviously be involved in bussing both Tom and Ciato since he was the only other option, so his history of "catching" them in the challenge doesn't count for as much.
Decent post from Kiro weighing Alex and Ciato, admittedly the two persons of the hour after D2. I see no fault with this post, though Ciato was obv going to hang that day.
Ok,
this post from Jam worries me. It softly discredits the possibility of Alex being scum with Tom/Ciato. I think that if it's decided that Jam will die today, and she flips scum, Alex
needs to be next. However, I'll still need to decide if Jam is indeed scum.
K4U here does the same thing as Jam. However, I wouldn't tie K4 and Alex as closely together. Why? K4U gives reasoning for why Alex/Tom/Ciato makes little sense, as opposed to Jam saying that would just be weird. Also, claim post, yay, cool.
Ciato was forced against Alex, so if they
are scum together,
she'd have to bus. Thing is, this feels like genuine scum trying to frame a townie, IMO.
this from Alex makes me feel bad. Alex on his own has been rather town. But...the people he suggests as town don't seem very clean to me. Kiro has fluctuated between good townie and IIoA scum master. Kefit has been mostly IIoA with few reads. I look forward to his post tonight. I'll admit, Kefit feels less scummy than my other picks of Alice and Jam but...Jam is starting to become a null read for me.
...
Dammit Alex, you know, it's getting a lot harder to believe you are town when you try to argue Kiro is town for "being logical" when being logical is easy when you are providing set up information instead of player analysis. The push for "totally town" bothers me, but it has also come from dead town as well. I still think a more ambivalent read would be more town, and that's why this post bugs me. Other points are good, though Cid was town.
Kefit DOES point out
here, quite accurately, that Alex pointing out why Alex vs. Ciato is bad is somewhat townie. Course, that's also where he challenges Ciato with, admittedly good reasoning. Laced with WIFOM but as long as we don't let Kefit win a challenge, we're golden. Letting him live to lylo might be a bad idea as well, thinking on it. Especially given the fact he could be scum who was trying to charge up his missile launcher. That's a conspiracy theory btw. Oh, if we lynch Kefit and he flips scum, also look at Alex and probably Alice or Kiro.
we
revisit this post. Still bugs me. Also makes me feel alright about adding a "look at Kiro and/or Alice and Alex if Kefit is scum" qualifier to the last post I commented on.
Revising earlier read.
this Jam post makes me want to clear Alex and Kefit if Jam flips scum. Bard obviously flipped town already...
I know there are two townies in
this list. I'm willing to guess there's a third if Kefit is scum. It's tenuous but I'll temporarily rule out Kefit/Kiro. So, if Kefit is scum, I want Alex and Alice to hang after him.
Alex starts moving away from Kiro. I also note more people start suspecting Kiro in the pages between Alex's posts. Hmm. Also, the "ridiculousness" barometer as opposed to lynching by scumminess bugs me...
this is better at least, actually qualifying in scum/town terms rather than stupid/smart.
This Kefit post flat bugs me. Especially since he seems to be
actively engaging in exactly what he accused me of. Namely this:
Not a big deal, really, but hey, every seed of doubt that a scum can fabricate via a fallacious yet facially appealing argument has the potential of paying off big down the line.
What he does that emulates this is his first attack on Serp. There are
six days between the first two posts he mentions. The third point is rather sound, though Serp DID flip town. Overall the facetious tone and the less than compelling nature of all points except the third one also bugs me.
Oh, and note the push for UK v. Serp. Alex also engaged in this IIRC?
Kiro
pushes Serp (with minimal reasoning), "clears" Bard, Kefit, and Alex, and pokes Jam and Cid all in the same post. I'm not so sure Kefit/Kiro is as impossible as I though. But...still possible. I'm actually beginning to think that if Kiro is scum, one scum is slipped into those three.
This from Alex does show flexibility. He wasn't trying to close off me challenging Chaos.
Ironically I say Kefit and Alex are town, but generally I back that up with "they aren't in my list"
Alice chimes in pushing for Serp. Chaore has a good point that Alice seemed to REALLY want me to challenge Serp. I am increasingly leaning Alice scum here.
On the flip side,
Alice was right about Chaore town.
Alex, who are you talking to here? Chaore or I? It's very important to determine if you were pushing Chaore or Serp against me.
You know? I realized something that will toss out impressions on the last few posts. Chaore and Serpy were BOTH TOWN. Therefore, people who were pushing for either/or of them are
more likely to be scum.
Alex just became more scummy, Alice less so. Not sure what to make of Kefit. On the one hand, stuck to Serp over Chaore. On the other, case on Serp wasn't as great as most initially though. But yeah, I'm leaning Alex might really be scum.
this is a beautiful case of pushing more Kefit town while still trying to frame me. Nice, isn't it? Note how OPEN I am as a lynch after Serp flips town.
Jam, I'm going to rename you Polly. Polly has spent another post parroting everything already said. I don't like this.
this post feels like coaching. of myself. I don't know WHY scum would coach town though, so I don't think I can make a point out of this.
this post gives me good vibes on K4U, not that she necessarily bugged me. It was a town v. town challenge, but she was basically going against the tide of everyone else here, which causes her to stand out.
this Kiro post feels like it's half waffle, half opinion on Serp, who was probably going to lose at this point anyway.
I note I haven't really linked Rou posts. This is partially because I've taken no alignment issues with him, and partially because if I argued with every terrible point he's made, I'd merely be rehashing about 30% of my own posts, and making this wall pointlessly bigger.
this post from Kefit feels somewhat townie. Admitting he was wrong and he looks bad, but still rather proactively trying to get opinions and look at the right people...but...hmm...
I keep reading this post. And the only thing I can see is "We can do it! Alex/Kiro scumteam GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO~!" (while framing UK)
Polly posts another waffly useless post.
Alex ties himself to Kefit, paints Cid as possible scum (discrediting), then backs off and says his behavior is town. Then pushes lurker lynches + "Me or Kefit should get a prize!"
I'll be honest, the only thing worrying me is Kiro/Alex/Kefit seems too EASY, and that earlier Kefit/Kiro being unlikely post :S. And where does Alice figure in? I want to think he's scum but Kiro/Alex/Kefit doesn't allow for that. I am reasonably sure on Alex/Kiro at this point. But who's the third?
this post also bugs me. All the "pro town" qualities Alex mentions are mostly "He's made the game easier to read". While this is pro town in and of itself, if the content of these "easy" posts isn't up to scratch, it does not count.
this post by Alice...actually doesn't further my push for people who are scum with Alex. It feels like a more townie "I didn't notice anything wrong", the same line I've felt all game til now.
this post from Kiro I think embodies the issues I've had with him all game. There is RARELY analysis of the results of a previous challenge except where ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY to keep looking town. Nothing is ever given beyond the minimum. THIS IS NOT TOWN KIRO!
This is all I needI am certain Alex is scum with this. He's trying to frame Rou (hoping Rou wouldn't get a confirmable bauble), and he knows exactly where the missiles came from.
I also am convinced he's bussing Kiro, but that might be confirmation bias.
As rou pointed out, Kiro painted everyone redPolly is still useless.
THIS IS WHERE MY WALL OF TEXT ENDS AND CUTS BEGIN. YOU CAN READ ONLY MY RESPONSE TO CUTS IF YOU LIKE. NEXT POST WILL CONTAIN A SUCCINCT SUMMARY OF MY FINDINGS!Finally, Cuts:
UK: The scum don't control the Hime Star conditions, the mod does. That's pretty obvious just from the way they're portrayed and what they are. I've run a game with daily conditions like this that Rat played in, too. Setup speculation is fruitless anyway. Hunt scum.
I did. And caught you. And your buddy Kiro. And...well, Kefit's an odd one. No idea what to say here.
Alright, so that's it...let's see how I can say this.
