Himelander Mafia Thread (Over! Scum Win!)

[UncertainJakutten]

It's...unfortunate that I was incorrect about Bard. I think after this challenge I'll definitely have to do a full reread with new data. I'll also try something a little different. I'll see if I can compress my data into something a bit...smaller than a wall this time. I'm sure you don't want to read links to 20 pages of comments.

Hmm...this gives me an idea I want to implement in the future, but might not be allowed. I won't try it this game but perhaps next game I play I'll check with the mod to see if it's alright.

[FinnKaenbyou]

And we lose another player to Srs Bzns Syndrome. Yay.

Honestly, I'll restate my belief that UK is a threat to Town in more ways than one. Her posts are overly long to the point where I can't follow them, she takes offense when people can't understand said posts, she takes everything personally and makes every case personal on top of that...either she's scum and we've taken one of theirs, which is getting increasingly likely, or she's Town and things get easier for me to read.

It's too late to flip the wagons, and Serp is still annoying for being all setup no game. I'll be around to hammer.

[Serp]

Hm, interesting.  Maybe Tom really did just panic from fear of losing two scum before the team even got a chance to claim a single head.  A more thorough analysis would require time that I just don't have, but surface impression is that Alex looks unlikely to be scum now.  My other scum picks also suffer somewhat from the fact that they weren't playing from the position of already having a head bagged.  Oh well, that's pessimism for you.

[Kitten4u]

K4 hates UK for hatin on Bard

More like I'm hating on UK for being UK.  Also, sorry about the quote walls.

---

Yeah, this is the second game in a row I've attacked UK with what in hind sight is a very lack luster case.  At this point I don't find it unlikely I'm just annoyed with her playstyle over finding her scummy and it's seriously messing up my ability to read her.  If that then I apologize to UK because finding someone scummy not on what they said, but how they said it is really dumb (I'm actually embarrassed, seriously).  I'm not ready to call her town, so I'd prefer if we didn't let her win any more challenges just yet (I still think letting Cid win a challenge because of his ability is a better idea anyway). 

And Bard flipped town, I'm not surprised.  I still expect Serp to flip town.  My non-UK reads are basically the same.

[Edible]

2-ish hours remain.  Votecount remains unchanged.

[UncertainJakutten]

I can self hammer if need be. We have about 46 minutes.

[UncertainJakutten]

Damn, nearly missed deadline

##Vote UncertainKitten

[FinnKaenbyou]

Welp, I ran from playing Mario Party 8 (oh god how repetitive do these games get) to see that there's already been a hammer. So yeah. :V

[Edible]

Serpentarius, playing Fumi, Perfect and Elegant Maid, was stuffed into a canister and used as a battery for hundreds of years.

It is now the Dawn of Day 5.  Discuss whatever you like, just don't post any game analysis.

[Kefit]

I leave the internet for a day and when I come back people are committing suicide.

Didn't any of you get suicide education in school you are supposed to help these people and call the suicide hotline for advice suicides are sad :<

[FinnKaenbyou]

Didn't any of you get suicide education in school you are supposed to help these people and call the suicide hotline for advice suicides are sad :<

We didn't realise there was a problem. He looked so determined to fight his case, and then...;_;

[Ranmilia]

We were told that mental disorders were imaginary and people who complained of depression were just lazy and should be instructed to buck up and get over themselves.

Seriously though I've never heard of actual education on issues like that in schools.  Interesting.

[Carthrat]

the soul still burns in


2. Minagi Mikoto kitten4u likes cats can you tell
4. Kikukawa Yukino alice has a thing for tentacles
6. Higurashi Akane chaos will probably die first
7. Yuuki Nao kiro climbed up the water spout
9. Okuzaki Akira roukanken epitomizes gender identification issues
10. Munakata Shiho kefit can strangle you with her hair
11. Fujino Shizuru uncertainkitten hates old people with passion
12. Alyssa Searrs jam-kiske's ion cannon is ready
15. Harada Chie cid couldn't wait for fatal frame mafia
16. Miyu Grear siralex was forced out the coolant tank

all sparkly now

13. Sanada Yukariko (pesco) was defeated by Kazahana Mashiro (bardiche) in The Battle of the Unexpected Motorist
14. Senou Aoi (kilga) was defeated by Miyu Grear (siralex) and Sugiura Midori(ciato) in The Battle of the Misplaced Bullet!
14. Kuga Natsuki (eviltom) was defeated by Miyu Grear (siralex) and Sugiura Midori(ciato) in The Battle of the Misplaced Bullet!
5. Sugiura Midori (ciato) was defeated by Munakata Shiho (kefit) in The Battle of the Unfortunate Crush!
1. Kazahana Mashiro (bard) exploded! Scum claimed .99 of a kill!
8. Himeno Fumi (Serp) was defeated by Fujino Shizuru (UK) in The Battle of the Twin Reapers!

It is Round 5! Today, a Shiny Bauble has Dropped From the Heavens! Whoever is victorious in today's duel will win a Special Prize!

You have 24 hours to begin squabbling over jewelry!

[Kefit]

Neither Bard nor Serp were scum? Man, I'm down to one outta five now rofl.

I'm also lost again. I thought I had everything figured out, then it comes tumbling down on me. I'm gonna take some time to start from the beginning tomorrow afternoon. For now I'll suggest a couple of talking points:

- Have we seen anything suspicious from this game's background players? I'm thinking Jam, Cid, Alice, kitten4u. A town flip for both Bard and Serp means we probably have one or two quiet scum lurking in the shadows. We can't ignore these players forever.

- Do we want UK alive or dead? It's unfortunate for her that Serp flipped town (it's also probably unfortunate for me in the long run). The answer to this may be yes or no, but I think it has to be based on scumhunting reasons rather than a systematic process of killing those who kill town. Remember, killing off duel winners who have killed town will have the ultimate effect of leaving the quiet players untouched for some time. Sure, we can hypothetically state that the collective group might agree on a duel between the winner of the previous duel and a particular quiet player (a duel which would be enforced via threat of hammer), but the progress of this game so far has convinced me that we as a group cannot agree on anything as concrete as that. At best we'll get a weak plurality, any single opinion of which will be unenforceable. A quiet scum could potentially lurk forever under such a regime.

[Ranmilia]

Interesting.  And sad.  Let's see.

More or less cleared townie folks:
- Me, I know I'm town!  (and hopefully the implausible stupidity of me being scum along with Ciato and Tom in the four way challenge, my play, etc are convincing enough to everyone else.)
- Kefit, who has been notably logical and level headed.  He's also been wrong in his cases, but I don't think he's been wrong in particularly scummy ways.  Also, Ciato and Tom were really illogical and obvious and put no effort at all into their scum play, which I'm treating as a vote of no confidence in the rest of their team - I don't think they would have played like that if they'd had Kefit as a level headed ally.


- Kitten4U, who has the power to turn an elegant duel into a riotous lynch mob.  Her content has been lurky and lacking and her roleclaim doesn't make her town at all, but it does make her worth keeping alive.  Even if she is scum, we can now hold her to using her power to remove a particularly anti-town day condition if and when one arises, so until that happens it'd be silly to put her in a challenge.  That goes either way for her though.  I'm okay with myself or Kefit taking another head but not her.

The Semi-Town Neutral Folks Who've Said Things
- Cid, who has claimed cop, I'm not sure how Kefit can class him as a background player.  Aside from that he hasn't been too vocal but has taken at least some stances I can recall.  I lean town on him though for Ciato and Tom's behavior, same as Kefit. 

- Roukanken, who has been the victim of Pesco's insanity and spent most of the game embroiled in setup stupidity.  I'm very neutral on him but can't class him as a lurker.


The Lurkers
- Kiro
- Alice
- Jam

Rou/Kiro/Alice/Jam I am very neutral on.  There's probably scum in there but I'd have to go back and intensively reread each of them to form an opinion.

The Scummy
- UK
- Chaos

These two I don't have much to say on as I think much has already been said.

As I said yesterday I want the whole UK/Chaos/Serp trio dead, accepting the probability that scum will probably get a head out of them somewhere.  I would propose Chaos > UK today but we are met with another behavior altering day condition.  This day condition makes me want to go for Kefit or myself knocking off a scummy player.  It is 4 AM and I am tired, typing poorly and not up for doing extensive rereads now so I'll leave this as is for the time being.  Suggestions?

[FinnKaenbyou]

OOH PRETTY SHINY THINGY I WANT

This now makes the idea of a Chaore/UK fight very discomforting. Whoever wins, we basically have to give a prize, so I'd go for someone who we're relatively confident in.

Kiro is amazing in that I actually just remember he's posted a lot, but I don't remember anything that he's said. That said, I sort of haven't been giving this game 100% for a few days now with all the recent madness. >_>

Alice also suffers from the above, but since both these players are relatively skilled I don't see why Alex/Ciato would throw themselves away after being paired with them. They claimed 1 head in total after the D2 incident, which is why I'm still stuck in WIFOM-land over Alex. My head says Town and that I'm being paranoid, so yeah.

K4U...hmm. That roleclaim is the only thing that's really keeping her alive, it seems. I'm worried that if she's scum she'll wait until the last minute before showing herself up as something else entirely and clinching scum their last head, so I'd prefer if she used her power sooner rather than later.

I never understood the Cid copclaim. How does it work? Is he sitting on four results by now? Is he still paranoid about a framer even with two dead scum? If he actually has results, I'd like to see them. :|

So yeah, I'd go for TownieNominatedPlayer vs. UK today. Alex seems the most logical choice - I gave Kiro too much credit for wordswordswords and unless Day 2 was the biggest gambit ever and Alex was running on getting himself lynched he's very likely Town.

[El Cideon]

I said I started with zero charges, Rou. I won't have any results until I've killed someone.

Strongly advise against pitting two people we think are scum against each other today. Dunno what that prize might be, but why risk giving it to someone who's alignment is questionable?

Need to go back and take a close look at anyone who was still pushing the Bard lynch after all this time. Seems easy for scum to sit on that case and hide in lingering doubts about D1. Agree with Alex that someone townie vs. UK/Chaore is a reasonable suggestion for today's duel.

[Kiro]

With today's special prize, I'm in favor of Alex being our victor. With Serp and Bard both flipping Town, my main suspicion goes to UK. I'm not even sure how that matchup yesterday even came forward as it pretty much was a period of discussion with Chaore threatening to challenge and lose to Cid and then UK decides to go to Serp. It came about rather suddenly and I'm a little wary of how she managed to take the discussion into an opportune time to "alleviate Town's fears." There was no Scumflip so I can't say there's any alleviation at the moment.

In a way, this situation also could have been a ploy to save Chaos from doing something rash since bravado gets you Townie points until you're actually committed. I'd be interested to see whether Chaos would be willing to lie down for Alex like he was offering for Cid. The choice between the 2 could make a difference actually.

At the moment, UK is also the only loose end and would help determine whether Scum have snagged 1 or 2 heads thus far. That kind of information can go a long way to determine how much a cushion we have to work with and I'm comfortable enough with letting Alex get that kill.

[Jam-Kiske]

Special prize today? Ooooh. that of course means we have to be super careful with who we choose to challenge.

Dunno about UK, she originally wanted to challenge Chaore rather than Serp though that could have been only to get some sort of cred. She isn't really scummy rather than simply antagonistic, but it's once again becoming difficult to find truly scummy behavior round these parts...

[UncertainJakutten]

Well, first, I won't be around for the rest of today.

secondly, I figure I'm probably going to die today. I'm really rather pissed that I was wrong about one of my picks. I'm also irritated I was bullied into challenging Serp instead of Chaore. But, I've already explained why I couldn't in good conscience challenge Chaore. Kiro, I love how you seem to forget the fact that I also said I couldn't challenge Chaore because I didn't want to give Chaore a head since that battle could have gone either way, and I had enough suspicion of Serp, and enough people supporting me vs. Serp to justifiably challenge him. Turns out I was wrong there, but try not to obfuscate the facts too much, Kiro.

Thirdly, I am willing to die, but only towards someone I think is pro town. That would be Alex, Cid, or Rou atm. I don't think there's any disagreement on my first two picks, so either of those two will be fine.

Fourthly, I'd rather NOT die since I am town, and if there is a possibility I won't die, I'd prefer Chaore be challenged. Preferably by Cid, Alex, or Rou.

Fifthly, I'd advise looking at the people who pushed me to challenge Serp. I think there is probably a scum amongst them. I'll look at it myself when I am actually free to have time.

[Edible]

14-ish hours remain to challenge.

[Chaore]

I'd be interested to see whether Chaos would be willing to lie down for Alex like he was offering for Cid. The choice between the 2 could make a difference actually.

I'd say outright I prefer to die to Cid. I don't think dying to Alex would have any chance of revealing scum, seeing as he has neither the claim to disprove, or cop powers to offer.

After Serp's flip... Uh... Yeah, I'm going to have to say I'm Cid food here. Its really a choice between today or tomorrow.

Fifthly, I'd advise looking at the people who pushed me to challenge Serp. I think there is probably a scum amongst them. I'll look at it myself when I am actually free to have time.

I don't see the goaders actually being worth much unless I come up scum. Rou has a point, Serp is not special. There is no good reason for anyone to believe that Scum wanted Serp dead badly. Therefore, the act of goading UK away is something that only benefits me. I'm sure I could be missing something, But I'd say it was just the fact Serp looked scummy and town wanted him out.

Then again, you're probably still thinking I'm scum. So these are wasted words on you until you hit 3/5 missed.

My opinion on today's match, as a possible deathy, is null. I'll say whichever of us remains should probably be fed to Cid tomorrow, regardless of flip. Therefore, all possible loose ends on Serp's death are tied up, and any possible leads are revealed or shot down.

[El Cideon]

Quite willing to step up to the plate today, really. I think the sooner we get results, the better, and the more players that are around when I run an investigation, the less chance scum have of screwing with things if there is a framer among their ranks (still have no way of knowing whether or not there is one, of course--it seems obvious to me that the flavor titles we see on a flip have no obvious connection to the actual power role the player had, so we wouldn't necessarily know what we've killed).

Chaore's willingness to die still unnerves me a little but that could be a scum ploy. Hell, it got me to question myself yesterday, why not do it again? So that's an option still. I'm really starting wonder about some of the people who've managed to avoid being talked about for most of the game, though--Jam and Alice stand out here.

...Hrm. The more I think about it, the more I think my role needs to get active while it might still be useful. Stating intent to challenge someone before bed tonight (~6 hours away) barring serious objections from a significant number of players. Probably Chaore, but I'll do some rereading and see if anyone else jumps out at me. 6 hours isn't super-close to deadline, I know, but deadline looks like it'll happen when I'm either asleep or have just woken up and not had time to review new posts, so.

[Ranmilia]

There's no way to DISprove Cid's claim, since if he's lying he's scum and knows everyone's alignment already and can make up whatever he wants.  If Cid is scum we'd also be handing the mystery prize into his hands as well as a head today.   We have nearly zero proof Cid is town and a very nasty gambit on our hands if he is scum.  Giving Cid a head and the prize today is terrible policy.  Even if he is town and truthful, if the prize grants some sort of action (and I'm having a hard time thinking of other things it could grant) we have no guarantee that it'll be usable in conjunction with his cop power, it is entirely likely there is a "one action per day" limit similar to those on night actions in normal Mafia games. 

I would scream bloody murder about this if it weren't for my reads on Ciato/Tom's actions saying Cid is also probably town.  Probably.  Shakily.  I fully admit that this is entirely player-based from knowing Ciato and Tom and I have no idea whatsoever why UK and Chao are giving Cid a pass out of nowhere.  It is very disturbing. 

Chao's death wish and lack of contribution is also very disturbing.  As with Serp, there's no real way to distinguish between scum and town buying into facepalmingly terrible ideas. 

On further thought, I do agree that this is a good time to start slamming lurkers.  I really, really want to see Alice and Jam post before we challenge today, but with time pressure and their posting habits this is iffy.  I support Kefit or myself vs Alice, Jam, Kiro, UK or Chao, in roughly that order of preference right now.

[Chaore]

Five lynch line.

That is a pretty sizable part of the player base, based simply on Lurking.

Hey. Why are they all in front of me and UK, anyway?

[El Cideon]

Even if he is town and truthful, if the prize grants some sort of action (and I'm having a hard time thinking of other things it could grant) we have no guarantee that it'll be usable in conjunction with his cop power, it is entirely likely there is a "one action per day" limit similar to those on night actions in normal Mafia games.

This is my only misgiving about acting today and I'll grant that it's a valid point. Still feel like it would be better to have an investigation done sooner rather than later. Getting the nasty suspicion that there's scum hiding in one of the lurkers I've been overlooking for most of the game. Still wish to proceed. Anyone else object?

Anyway, reread up through page 11 or so. Pretty well sold on Chaore at the moment. Has been the king of showing up to lynch trains late, only casting votes when things were nearly decided (if at all) and his penchant for being adamantly opposed to supporting Alex day 2 while making virtually no mention of Ciato still looks weird to me. Other people?

-UK I'm honestly not that sure about right now. I can easily see the fixation on Bard as being a townie with a bad case of blinders, and the D1 slapfight with Bard? Was a mess, but I see no good reason for scum UK to insert herself into what we now know was a townie vs. townie duel with such vigor.

-Jam looks like our lurker extraordinaire. Probably a good target soon. Alice doesn't post often but what's there if usually perfectly rational and there's not much I can find fault with, so less sold there.

-K4U I find hard to associate with particular stances, in retrospect. Obviously this is problematic. It occurs to me that the roleclaim could be entirely true and still be on the side of scum.

[Chaore]

...I'm sorry, has this turned into mediocre posting week?

Finish your reread. Come back. Take a double look at what is now very wrong with your post there. ESPECIALLY since you have no excuse ignoring things a few pages back. What the -hell-, Cid?

[El Cideon]

I didn't say I was done, man. Chill out. Since there was already something to respond to I tossed in what I was thinking by the halfway point in the same post. Didn't see any harm in reporting in.

[Chaore]

Apologies. After Alex's last post there, I'm a bit worried on what is actually being thought here.

[UncertainJakutten]

Then again, you're probably still thinking I'm scum. So these are wasted words on you until you hit 3/5 missed.

If you are town, it would be 2/5 missed. Kiro was my fifth pick, not Serp.

I would scream bloody murder about this if it weren't for my reads on Ciato/Tom's actions saying Cid is also probably town.  Probably.  Shakily.  I fully admit that this is entirely player-based from knowing Ciato and Tom and I have no idea whatsoever why UK and Chao are giving Cid a pass out of nowhere.  It is very disturbing. 

Cid just feels town to me. As do you. Kefit I'm a little less certain of. We could always go with Rou .

Like I said, you can challenge me if you'd like. I just would prefer to see Cid get his copperness out if it exists. Admittedly, a cop claim is not exactly the most believable, I just feel his actions don't feel non town.

Oh, hey, Cid, thanks for reminding me I have a case on Chaore based on his voting activity in prior challenges

I think I even more support Cid vs. Chaore.

In other news, I'm obviously back. Got computer back for good behavior.