Man, I'm running 0/2 this game. Probably a combination of being rusty and trying to apply a play style that just doesn't work here. But hey, they say that third time's the charm - and now I've got a decent amount of info to play with. I think I'll even bother to reread the thread with this information in mind!
Oh ho,
our scumtastic friend Tom tried to push Pesco and Bardiche into a duel back on day one amidst a general outcry of "for the love of god don't
jizz before you even get your pants off." And what do you know, Pesco challenged Bard to a duel and then predictably died. So...did Tom want to push Pesco into dueling Bard in the hopes that Bard would then claim a head for the scum? Or was scum pushing for a town vs. town duel?
I'd put my money on the former. Town v. town does little to nothing for the scum - the scum exchange a potential kill for voting power, neither of which mean an awful lot right now. On the other hand, claiming a town head early on would be a huge boon for the scum. It might be all that they need to lay back and watch as the townies kill eachother for the rest of the game. Bard's posts throughout the first day also bug me - they are hyper-defensive and nit-pick random sentences of other posts. They don't really accomplish anything. His only discernible goal is trying to find scum despite having no real information at that point. Wouldn't it be sensible to save discussion not pertinent to the dual he was embroiled in for after the alignment flip? After all, an alignment flip can change many things in the scum hunting department.
Bard being scum would also make
Tom's completely unreasoned vote for Pesco's survival a rather cute move, now wouldn't it?
But let's move away from Bard for a moment. My analysis yesterday was that Tom was a raving lunatic. Any player with half a brain would know from day one that a premature discharge would only lead to death, right? Really, I can't see it be any other way, unless you lot are stupider then I could possibly imagine. This is doubly true if Tom was scum, as he would have had scum buddies to coach him on avoiding such embarrassing accidents.
Except Tom was scum after all. A scum who happily thrust himself into the meat grinder under the guise of an immature bodily impulse. So barring unknown roles and powers, this has got to be a scum gambit, right? Seems awfully obvious for one. Too obvious for me, really. But even if it's obvious, the potential of nabbing three heads by the end of day three was probably too good for the scum to pass up. Alex vs Ciato right now would simply be playing right into their hands. As Alex summed up earlier:
Ciato vs me is objectively a very silly idea and should not be done unless people are 100% on me being town and Ciato being scum, and I don't think people are. (Or vice versa but there's even less support for that.) It is nearly guaranteed that one of us is scum and for people who are unsure of our alignments, calling me vs Ciato wrong is a 50/50 risk of giving scum a head. With having others execute us instead, the executioner MIGHT be scum but the chance of that is far less than 50%. It is just obviously safer.
I have no read on Ciato. But Alex has been overwhelmingly sensible this entire thread, and this last quote seems to be something that the scum would REALLY want to keep under wraps if their gambit is actually as simple as it looks. I also like Alex's proposal from earlier.
Propose: Kefit vs. Ciato1) If Ciato flips scum, then I am probably town. Just don't let me challenge anyone after this point on due to the slim chance that I may have pulled an idiotic scum vs. scum gambit in an effort to prove my townness. After this I would probably recommend Bard v. Alex.
2) If Ciato flips town, then it means that Alex is almost assuredly scum.
Someone who isn't me should then duel Alex. God knows what you would all think of me at this point, but I would hope that you guys realize that, in the event that Alex and I are both scum, we wouldn't be stupid enough to actively work together in the thread. Still, it wouldn't be a good idea to let me instigate a challenge after this point. If I am scum, that would mean 2-3 heads for the scum after today, but in exchange for neutralizing 3-4 of us (Tom, Alex, me, and probably Bard). I dunno about you guys, but that exchange doesn't seem favorable to me unless there are an absurd number of scum this game (I'm talking >=6).
I'm not going to bother thinking past tomorrow's duel due to the information that could come out in the mean time. Thoughts on this proposal?
