INVASION! (Game Over, Nobody Wins)

[Kiro]

So Rou, redefine your case on either Affinity or Sodium as if you're preparing to vote them. I'm not asking you for why we shouldn't lynch Serp right now. There's more than one possible case out there so I'd rather not you tunnel on a defense of Serp. Scumhunt for other cases.

I answered your question as follows:

And the thing is that if Serp was Scum, it's not certain they expected a case to arise on him so soon. So perhaps Scum just decided to off who they thought were the most perceptive people in the game and possibly take Serp as a loss. Even if Scum Serp was lynched in Day 3, they have 2 people left who could reasonably still win the game.

What I think about a Mafia Vig though is that it has to be single shot. Any additional shot makes it imbalanced. So a Mafia Vig would presumably fire it off once he's in danger. After that, he's just a normal Goon and could be counted as a loss perhaps. Thoughts are going out quick, lunchtime.

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP: Hell, after some more thought I've come to a realisation.

The fact we are in potential Lylo rather than actual Lylo outright proves that Serp can't be scum.

If Serp were a hitman, or indeed if scum had any sort of hitman, then this would be an obvious outright lylo. The fact we can still win in spite of that shows that Serp can't be scum.
Even in the event of a No Lynch, it would be game over if Serp was hitman. Therefore I see no reason to lynch him today, because whether he's Town or SK his death effectively kills off the Town.

What I think about a Mafia Vig though is that it has to be single shot. Any additional shot makes it imbalanced. So a Mafia Vig would presumably fire it off once he's in danger. After that, he's just a normal Goon and could be counted as a loss perhaps. Thoughts are going out quick, lunchtime.

Then why did he go to the effort of roleclaiming as an even-night vig rather than a one-shot vig? And again, firing because you received about two votes is pretty paranoid.

Right now? I'm very close to throwing a vote down on you ahead of either of them, Kiro. Mainly on the basis that I honestly don't believe that you'd be single-minded enough to not consider these possibilities if you were Town. Hell, quoting you DIRECTLY from D3:

If Serp is a Mafia Vig: Then the Zakeri kill is standard reduction of numbers while at the same time coordinated with the Kilga kill, places himself in the forefront. And he continues the Suwako pursuit which is gutsy. Either he'd be lynched and Suwako gets a further clear which is good for Town if Suwako is Town or devestating for Town if Suwako is Scum. Or (as the latest developments might suggest), we lynch Suwako. If Suwako flips Town, that kind of ensures the Serp lynch will follow which is a terrible strategy for Scum as it is a 1:1 trade when they reasonably did not need one.

Why the sudden change of opinion? I don't see how the doc flip changes things that dramatically, especially since Pesco himself didn't see a problem with it.

[UncertainJakutten]

The fact we are in potential Lylo rather than actual Lylo outright proves that Serp can't be scum.

Not necessarily. What if Serp is lying and he's a one shot mafia vig, as proposed by Kiro?

Then why did he go to the effort of roleclaiming as an even-night vig rather than a one-shot vig? And again, firing because you received about two votes is pretty paranoid.

So a) someone like you would fall for it hook line and sinker, or b) because you're his scumbuddy and planned to bring that up.

[FinnKaenbyou]

So a) someone like you would fall for it hook line and sinker, or b) because you're his scumbuddy and planned to bring that up.

This is WIFOM to an extreme. Serp was called out on the spot after Nietz caught him visiting Zak, so to think he'd have the time to come up with a plan like this involving claiming even-night vig and then having his buddy pull out this defense at Lylo?

If Serp doesn't have a kill, then it's still just a normal even-player Lylo. The only way for this not to be lylo is for there to be a non-scum directed kill that could save Town in the event of a mislynch.

[UncertainJakutten]

If Serp doesn't have a kill, then it's still just a normal even-player Lylo. The only way for this not to be lylo is for there to be a non-scum directed kill that could save Town in the event of a mislynch.

It is lylo though, didn't edible say that? Well, mylo, actually, but still.

8 players. If you no lynch we still have 7 players and I'm assuming 3 scum.

If you lynch however, and you're wrong, then game is likely over D5.

I do not see your logic of how this clears Serpy?

[FinnKaenbyou]

If you lynch however, and you're wrong, then game is likely over D5.

This is my point. If the game is likely to be over, that means there's a chance that it won't be over. If that was the case we'd just get told outright 'you're in lylo'.

The only way for us to survive a mislynch is to have a non-scum-directed kill, and the only claimed killing role is Serp. Pretty sure that train of thought speaks for itself.

[UncertainJakutten]

This is my point. If the game is likely to be over, that means there's a chance that it won't be over. If that was the case we'd just get told outright 'you're in lylo'.

The only way for us to survive a mislynch is to have a non-scum-directed kill, and the only claimed killing role is Serp. Pretty sure that train of thought speaks for itself.

Allow me to poke a hole in your logic. Not with red text, but with mod posts.

Pseudo/Potential LYLO, yes.

That reads to me like Mylo.

[UncertainJakutten]

Mods~: If we mislynch, do we lose?

Potentially.

[Nietz]

##Unvote

To all of those labelling me as obvscum, please keep in mind that Pesco knew he wasn't the only partial vig role, and he still believed me strongly enough to swing the lynch away from me and towards Suwako.

What the hell, why should we assume that he had privileged information?

I at least have proof that at least one scum was bussing VgameT, and if that's the case, maybe they all were.  A conspiracy of a different sort.

Way to appeal to extremes and fearmongering.
And calling your theory a stretch would be a huge euphemism. It's a clear example of a desperate move to take the lynch away from you.

The more I think about it, the more a one-shot hitman makes sense for Serp. Anthony and Tenshi brought most of the D2 attention on themselves, so he lurks and gets a pass despite Suwako calling him on all his D1 scumminess, but it was clear that he was going to be the main case on D3 (which is why tracked him in the first place). Somehow his strategy of lurking and waiting for another case to show up actually works, and despite my claim town actually decides to lynch Suwako for not being cute enough.

SK was the only option that could make him not-scum in my eyes, and as it is I'm convinced that he's either scum or the setup is screwed up and then it really doesn't matter.

Ready to Vote: Serpentarius

Follow-up is Rou, not only by his previous actions but by the sheer amount of craplogic the he's using to defend Serp.

I'm actually getting highly irritated with how half the Town has decided that Serp is obvscum when the most obvious sign that something is amiss - the death on N2 - suggests either Town has a vig, or scum has one of the cheapest and most unfair roles out there. I've never played a game with a Hitman before, and I hope to keep it that way.

I played a one-shot Hitman here before. Stop acting like you think the role is impossible.

If we assume a Hitman does exist, why would he target Zak of all people? Kilga was on the Serp wagon as well, so hitting BOTH of the players who'd been following him so fiercely would be a dead giveaway.

It would be a huge WIFOM, that is. And you seem to forget that Kilga and Zak were both killed, and that was far from being brought as a main point against Serp until I accused him.

You also keep insisting that he wasn't at danger because of two votes, while I think it was pretty clear that he would be the main case for D3, however Tenshi and Anthony flipped (and specially if you knew they'd flip Town).

It also occurs to me that one of the townies could be bomb or bulletproof, it would make sense for them not to claim it, and it could - potentially - allow for Town to survive a mislynch.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Mods~: If we mislynch, do we lose?

Potentially.

I think this pretty much proves my point, actually.

[FinnKaenbyou]

EBWOP:

It also occurs to me that one of the townies could be bomb or bulletproof, it would make sense for them not to claim it, and it could - potentially - allow for Town to survive a mislynch.

Then if that were the case, now would be a good time for them to come out with it so that Serp doesn't get a free pass, wouldn't it?
Plus, considering there's already apparently at least a tracker and a doc in the Town, isn't adding a BP on top of that more or less overkill? That is, of course, assuming your tracker claim is Town-affiliated.

[Sodium]

Rou. Tell me where I said Pesco was the one who did the Zak kill. Do I have to spoon feed you everything? When I said I doubted that there are two Night Vigs, I meant two town Night Vigs, not Two Night Vigs of differing alignment.

Oh, and blatant chainsaw, Rou.

Serp gives... a conspiracy theory! On Nietz! And his defense is "Guys, look at all those dead guys that believed me! I'm not obvscum!".

Stupid lylo related crap. We're probably in the lylo where a mislynch + NK is required from scum to win. Serp isn't an SK(he said so himself), and he isn't town by any likely means(if he is, I will facedesk hard), so he's scum. Rou is still trying to tell people that Serp is a SK, and that we need him if we mislynch. I'd rather lynch scum right now, rather then later.

[UncertainJakutten]

I think this pretty much proves my point, actually.

Actually, I just realized the mod can't answer that question.

It would reveal too much about the set up. so we are at a deadlock.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Yeah, I'm tired of arguing this point. Potential Lylo <> Lylo. If we were in outright Lylo, the GM would tell us as such rather than play around with maybes and potentials.

Stupid lylo related crap. We're probably in the lylo where a mislynch + NK is required from scum to win.

When Edible just said that doing so may not result in a Town loss?

I'm fairly confident that Serp was lying about being a vig now, and is thus scum

I read this without considering the potential of a hitman role, but I still don't think Serp is scum even in retrospect.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Actually, I just realized the mod can't answer that question.

No, he did answer the question. He just said that a mislynch will not necessarily result in a scum win. That proves the existence of a non-scum-directed kill.

[UncertainJakutten]

When Edible just said that doing so may not result in a Town loss?

Well, if scum were retarded an no killed or something. Actually, I don't see anything that outright says it might not end in a town loss.

No, he did answer the question. He just said that a mislynch will not necessarily result in a scum win. That proves the existence of a non-scum-directed kill.

Are you..


For the love of...

No...ok, I can't go off at you being as blind as a bat and with the reading comprehension of one as well. Instead I'll ask PRECISELY where this was confirmed.

[Nietz]

EBWOP: Then if that were the case, now would be a good time for them to come out with it so that Serp doesn't get a free pass, wouldn't it?

No, because that would completely negate the chances that they will be targeted. And besides, you are the only one who wants to get Serp a pass.
 

Plus, considering there's already apparently at least a tracker and a doc in the Town, isn't adding a BP on top of that more or less overkill? That is, of course, assuming your tracker claim is Town-affiliated.

Not if scum has a hitman, a voteblocker, and possibly another role. And if it's a bomb, it also has a chance of hitting Town upon hammer.

No, he did answer the question. He just said that a mislynch will not necessarily result in a scum win. That proves the existence of a non-scum-directed kill.

Jesus Youkai Christ, you just keep repeating things as if trying to make them truer. Are you actually trying to move Serp's lynch onto you?

[FinnKaenbyou]

Well, if scum were retarded an no killed or something. Actually, I don't see anything that outright says it might not end in a town loss.

This is the worst reasoning I've ever seen. Last time we had a situation like that a mislynch led to an immediate victory for scum.

Here's another question - the bomb should be doing their utmost to make themself a target for the scum NK. By this logic, the obvious bomb would have been Suwako, but she flipped vanilla. Likewise with bulletproof to a lesser extent. After her the next target would be Kilga, but he was vanilla as well. I can't see any players who are playing with a bomb/BP mindset at this point.

[UncertainJakutten]

This is the worst reasoning I've ever seen. Last time we had a situation like that a mislynch led to an immediate victory for scum.

Obviously you don't read your own writing then.

And plus, who's to say Edible does that? Mislynch to immediate scum victory?

Here's another question - the bomb should be doing their utmost to make themself a target for the scum NK. By this logic, the obvious bomb would have been Suwako, but she flipped vanilla.

What kinda stupid logic is this? Suwa was an obvious mislynch for most of the game!

You also didn't answer my question. While I regret being so rude in asking it, the spirit is the same.

[FinnKaenbyou]

What kinda stupid logic is this? Suwa was an obvious mislynch for most of the game!

By the end of D2 she was more or less seen as clear to everyone except Serp, IIRC. If scum had a hit I don't see why they choose her for it over Zakeri who I still feel would have been a more obvious mislynch on D3.

And my point is still that if this WAS a simple matter of 'we pick the wrong person, we lose', we'd be outright told 'Town is in Lylo'. I don't see anyone who I feel has been playing like a BP or Bomb, so I don't see a reason not to take Serp's claim fo what it is.

[UncertainJakutten]

By the end of D2 she was more or less seen as clear to everyone except Serp, IIRC. If scum had a hit I don't see why they choose her for it over Zakeri who I still feel would have been a more obvious mislynch on D3.

I still don't know how the suwa lynch happened...but you have a point. But I don't she'd be NK'd either.

And my point is still that if this WAS a simple matter of 'we pick the wrong person, we lose', we'd be outright told 'Town is in Lylo'. I don't see anyone who I feel has been playing like a BP or Bomb, so I don't see a reason not to take Serp's claim fo what it is.

One problem. We can no lynch.

Oh hey, not lylo!

[FinnKaenbyou]

One problem. We can no lynch.

Oh hey, not lylo!

We'd still be told that it was Lylo. The fact there's an even number of players makes NL an obvious option.

That said, I don't think we should NL because it puts a lot at risk. If Serp is Town he'll either have to not shoot and therefore we've managed to prove nothing, or shoot into the crowd and hope he hits scum (because if he doesn't it's game over). Scum aren't going to hit him if he's town because the entire game more or less rests on his shoulders right now.
If he's scum, he either can't shoot or - worse - he still can, meaning that Town loses anyway.

[UncertainJakutten]

We'd still be told that it was Lylo. The fact there's an even number of players makes NL an obvious option.

And did you notice the fact that...um...yanno, they SAID IT WAS POTENTIALLY LYLO!

This would be due to the NL chance.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Here's the crux - if it's POTENTIALLY Lylo, that means if we mislynch we POTENTIALLY lose. Not we can POTENTIALLY lynch and then lose if we mislynch. Key difference, and I've never seen a GM say 'potential lylo' in mylo before.

[UncertainJakutten]

Here's the crux - if it's POTENTIALLY Lylo, that means if we mislynch we POTENTIALLY lose. Not we can POTENTIALLY lynch and then lose if we mislynch. Key difference, and I've never seen a GM say 'potential lylo' in mylo before.

Just because you've never seen it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. This is the only place I've seen people declare lylo, but at any rate what's Edible's personal history on the matter?

[Affinity]

I find this hard to believe. If Serp is a Hitman, they'd hold onto him for as long as possible, and I don't see why they'd panic so much over him when he got all of two votes on D2. :/

This is pretty wrong.  Serp was the case on everyone's lips on day two and three, merely looking at things by votes while disregard the sentiment put forward by, uhh, you, Kiro and others sounds remarkably short-sighted.  You have the mindset of a conspiracy theorist indulging in confirmation bias.

Here's another question - the bomb should be doing their utmost to make themself a target for the scum NK. By this logic, the obvious bomb would have been Suwako, but she flipped vanilla.

What kind of logic is that?  What scum would want to NK Suwako?  And why, if you can identify roles at the drop of the hat, you shouldn't be playing this game.

While I can't discredit Rou's theory as totally crackpot, the opportunity for us to no lynch already makes it 'potential' without any additional premises.  Therefore, the idea that the word 'potentially' cancels out the entire case is refuted. (Oh called by UK).   However, I'm not willing to peg Rou as any more scummy for this, since it's a reasonable conclusion to make, though, what, total disregard for everything about Serp's direct play and theory is laughable.  More concerning is the fact that he went from 'I'm not sure about you, Kiro" to "oh you are the scummiest alive now" in the span of one post for a selective quote is bad, and there is a motive for this because he might want to deflect votes off Serp, but had no one to implicate.

---

And Serp does sound like a cornered wombat.  His theory is plausible, but since I know that I'm vanilla town, it's not true from my point of view whichever way; there's no reason to take such a gambit on day 3 from scum Nietz's point of view; scum weren't in the best of positions to try that in my opinion.

[UncertainJakutten]

At this point it's lynch order. Do we take out Serp first or go after Rou? Rou's been more scummy to me, but Serpy is well and truly cornered, practically obv scum at this point. On the offchance he DOES have more than one shot maybe we should lynch Serpy first.

[Serp]

Serp, you should tell us why Scum Tracker Nietz would choose to reveal himself in tracking you.

At the time, he was starting to come under suspicion.  He probably wanted to play on the reluctance of the town to believe that there would be a scum tracker role and confirm himself as not a viable lynch.  Furthermore, I think that scum would have benefitted more from myself getting lynched than if Suwako had - what would you be thinking right now if Pesco had come down against me instead of Suwako?  With my flip to confirm that at most two of the three remaining scum were on Suwako, Suwako might well have been a shoo-in to mislynch in LyLo.

I'm just not seeing the Day 3 Suwako wagon to be all Townies and you not commenting on any of those people is disturbing. Because if you're lynched as Scum today, you're not giving us any leads as to who else might be your buddy from these wagons. Opinions on Rou, Affinity, and myself in particular please.

I didn't comment on anyone but Nietz because I know that no alternative lynch to my own comes up, we lose, and I see Nietz as the best one.  Still, no harm in having a statement down for the record, I suppose.  My points against Roukanken from D3 still hold, but him going all out in defense of me in LyLo doesn't make much sense for scum.  He could be counting on the WIFOM of the situation, I suppose, so I wouldn't clear him, but he's far from my primary case.

I've got nothing on Affinity.  His reasoning for going after Suwako over VgameT was solid, and it was reasonable enough to back off during D2, but he retained that suspicion enough to listen to my case D3.  It's all consistent, so the only point against him is being on the wrong wagon D1.  He's not on my scumdar.  You, Kiro, didn't go after Suwako D1, which probably works out to make you look even less scummy.  It's a little weird, considering your meta, for you to have gone after Anthony D2 when you normally prefer to avoid jumping on policy lynches, but we had to take care of him sooner or later.

I think that the most plausible scumbuddies to Nietz are actually Sodium and Kitten4u, since a Nietz scumflip would imply that scum heavily favored a Serp lynch to a Suwako one D3.  This is on top of how they're both pushing the "Serp is obvscum, duh" angle, and the strangeness from Kitten4u on D3.  If I have to name a secondary lynch, Kitten4u would be the one.

What the hell, why should we assume that he had privileged information?

I don't think it's a stretch to assume that Pesco had access to his own role PM. :V

Serp gives... a conspiracy theory! On Nietz! And his defense is "Guys, look at all those dead guys that believed me! I'm not obvscum!".

Well, it's more that people are saying that being wrong about Suwako makes me obvscum, despite the fact that Suwako knew I was wrong and didn't hold it against me.  They're saying that Pesco having a vig makes me obvscum, despite the fact that Pesco knew he had a vig, and didn't find my claim suspicious.

And Serp does sound like a cornered wombat.  His theory is plausible, but since I know that I'm vanilla town, it's not true from my point of view whichever way; there's no reason to take such a gambit on day 3 from scum Nietz's point of view; scum weren't in the best of positions to try that in my opinion.

I don't follow.  How does knowing your own alignment discredit the theory?

Anyway, I'm fine with a No Lynch, too, if you all need me to confirm that I'm not a one-shot hitman.  I'll submit to the town's choice of target for my ability.  I'd rather lynch someone else today and then use my ability tonight, to have another chance of hitting scum, but better to have one shot than no shot at all.

[Kiro]

Rou, regarding your #661, I already revised my opinion in Day 4 with the following:

I have to revise my earlier opinion about Mafia Serp being willing to push the Suwako mislynch again as it forced us into LYLO with no room for error. Presumably a better alternative to being lynched a Day earlier and he almost certainly had help from some scum to get there.

It's something I didn't consider correctly because Serp was already high on the suspect list so why not try to run with it and grab the Suwako mislynch. A 1:1 is preferable to a 0:1. If you look at his statements today, I think that implicates him pretty heavily as he ignores the 3 people on Suwako's wagon and goes for the person who happens to be the opposing power role for balance issues. That may seem like the obvious choice in his point of view, but unfortunately, it's not so clear cut to the rest of us. Where are the cases for the Scum that are likely to have been on the Suwako wagon? He is not providing any of those opinions. In essence, lack of true scumhunting and just settles on the case that can only make sense to him due to his claimed role.

And going all the way down to that long argument about potential LYLO, I think that's a case of trying to guess the setup too much. The mods say it's potential, but only they know the reasons they say that. Edible hasn't modded a game here before so there's no history to track and maybe he never intended to declare true LYLO. But if you want to take his words literally, the bulletproof suggestion by Nietz actually makes sense. Of course a person with that role wouldn't reveal it, it negates the "potential" aspect. So we're back to Square One and giving Serp the clear on that alone is not true scumhunting and actually downright suspicious. At least push for someone else's lynch in Serp's place if you're going to be so stubborn about it. If you don't think it's him and it's not you, there's 2 other targets out there and let's hear who you think they might be.

I'll get my thoughts about Serp's latest post out in a bit, quick glance shows I need to reread a bit.

[Nietz]

I don't think it's a stretch to assume that Pesco had access to his own role PM. :V

Why should he know that there was another partial vig role, as opposed to SK or hitman? At best (or, in fact, worse) he could've assumed it. And pesco making wrong assumptions doesn't help your case at all.

At this point, the only thing I can think against lynching Serp is that despite what he said he might still be a regular SK whose N1 kill got thwarted by pesco. But I'm not to crazy about that hypothesis.