Author Topic: Draft Mafia - Game Over (Read 49000 times)

Mitsuki · « **Reply #120 on:** February 05, 2015, 12:31:58 PM »

Same goes for Bardiche since he viewed the thread like half an hour ago but I guess he is writing something?

Mitsuki · « **Reply #121 on:** February 05, 2015, 12:33:20 PM »

Well maybe not viewed the thread but he was online at the time so I guess he did.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #122 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:17:20 PM »

I was getting 'server verification failed' error messages for about an hour, maybe others are having the same issue.

I am not going to be around for phase end. The other viable wagons are Mitsuki and Raikaria, and out of those two, I'd rather lynch Raikaria. If we're playing the consolidate lynch game already, though, I'd want Rawr or Dan lynched since they are apparently deadweight.

That probably puts you out of immediate danger, so I would hold off on claiming for now. Or you could pseudo claim and say what you picked, not what you got, since in theory CF7 might have picked the same thing and you are actually vanilla.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #123 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:21:37 PM »

I was lied to by the votals. I probably won't be on the computer by the time the day ends. I might switch to Mitsuki before I go to sleep. Who knows?
Still want Raikaria lynched. Don't mind Mitsuki and Sky Palladium lynches, with preference in that order. (Mitsuki > Sky Palladium)
Also, RE: Mitsuki's question about Raikaria and why I think he's scummy in this post.

Quote from: Dormio Ergo Sum on February 03, 2015, 09:52:52 PM

Raikaria's whole line of logic is bullshit. It's lazy and something that I could see scum getting behind because it lets them build suspicion on someone for no good reason at all.

The reasoning is in, like, the very same post that you linked.
Are you trying to prove Rawr's point?

Quote from: Dr Rawr on February 05, 2015, 08:06:58 AM

i dont understand why mitsuki thinks bardiche is scum. ive read that post and actually looked at the links but i cant really tell whats going on. which in my book is just scum posting some kind of useless babble people will not really read and agree with it.

CF7 · « **Reply #124 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:24:50 PM »

Ugh. I just can't motivate myself to play. I'd like to request a replacement, but i am not sure if it's possible.

Mitsuki · « **Reply #125 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:28:53 PM »

THANKS CHROME FOR DELETING MY POST

Whatever, some final thoughts/reads:

- Dormio will become easier to read by D2, since it's by then that he tends to become motivated to post as town. Check his content and how contributing he is and that should make it easier to read him.

- No actual idea on Rawr, I tried to check IMP Mafia but that scum meta is too old to compare. Can someone link me to a more recent scum game from Rawr? I feel like I've asked this same question before, but I don't remember when.

- Sky Paladin is town since I don't see scum intent in his posts, I can follow his logic (whether I agree with it or not) and see how it's town-minded and overall gut.

- CF7 is another tough one, he's barely posted anything. Sadly that's a thing for him as both alignments, but I'm leaning town on him since as scum he seems to contribute less than what he's been doing. There's also how he tries to justify himself on why he hasn't posted as scum, which I haven't seen him doing this game.

- Raikaria is probably town since in spite of being a lynch candidate he's not defending himself in eternal wallposts that don't make sense. I was waiting for him to be under more pressure to see how he reacted but welp. Basically, the best tell I can think of to distinguish town Raikaria from scum Raikaria is that scum Raikaria tryhards to the extreme, while town Raikaria just lays in the background even when he's lynched.

- Zakeri is town for the same reasons I already stated; basically I think he'd try not to involve himself with the game as scum and he'd be much more passive and cautious. There's also something else but I think it's for the best if I don't mention it.

- Blah blah blah Bardiche is scum. I see scum intent behind his posts, I think he exaggerates his points in order to paint people as scummy and he misapplies scumtells without taking into account the factors that should be considered before applying them. There's also his tunnelling on me and how he chooses to vote for Raikaria instead of voting for me when he gives a lot more content on me.

- Dan is probably town, reads like town!Dan and there's also how he thought the same thing as me with regards to the Raikaria/Bard tie, which I don't think scum would bring up.

@CF7: I'd rather have you stay for the rest of the day and then request a replacement. Do you think your points on me still stand?

Mitsuki · « **Reply #126 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:32:19 PM »

@Dormio: ok, but ask me to claim before you switch to me, so that you may take my claim into account.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #127 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:34:38 PM »

I don't actually care about claims one bit in this setup and will not be taking any claims into account when lynching.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #128 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:35:42 PM »

Addendum: Unless, by some unforeseen miracle, we get a counterclaim situation or something like that.

Mitsuki · « **Reply #129 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:38:24 PM »

also @Dormio: the thing with your Raikaria vote is that yeah, scum could do that, but I see Raikaria posting stuff like that tough. I guess you don't, so we'll have to agree to disagree on this point.

Also Rawr's point with me has nothing to do with what you're saying just now, specially considering that Rawr didn't read my Bardiche case, just a side post where I commented on Bardiche's meta.

... you're going to take out town's PRs that way, though. Not saying I'm one and not saying I'm not one, I just think that's the wrong way to go about lynches any game.

Mitsuki · « **Reply #130 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:40:33 PM »

If, as you said, you don't care about my lynch/Sky's lynch and one of us is a PR, for example, wouldn't you rather vote someone else?

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #131 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:45:42 PM »

No because the role means absolutely nothing if it doesn't belong to town.
And the likelihood of a supposedly pro-town role not belonging to the town is higher in this game compared to most others.
Also, I'm going to sleep. No clue if I'll be on the computer before deadline.
##Unvote
##Vote Mitsuki

Of course, if I really wanted to try to game the setup, I should vote Sky Palladium over you but I'm lazy and don't feel like thinking about these things.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #132 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:45:55 PM »

Dormio, Mitsuki was the second draft pick. As scum she would have to randomly pick from the list of town roles and pray nobody else had selected it lower than her in the priority list, which is pretty tough because she's right up the top. So if she claims a role, yeah, she's that role.

If she claims vanilla that means she picked the same thing as CF7 or is scum pretending to have picked the same thing. I'd lynch a vanilla claim from the top of the list.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #133 on:** February 05, 2015, 01:51:33 PM »

Duh.

"If she was trying to claim as scum she would have to randomly pick from the list of town roles and pray nobody else had selected it lower than her in the priority list, which is pretty tough because she's right up the top." Context matters.

@Mod: Could mafia players draft pick town roles? Could town players draft pick the Strongman role?

Mitsuki · « **Reply #134 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:02:24 PM »

I think Dormio is scum from his recent posts. I get that role may not be indicative of alignment, but when you don't care about someone else's lynch, even if you do find them somehow scummy, you're going to take their claim into account, specially if they've been hinting they're a PR. I don't think Dormio's missed that. Dormio's vote on me looks easy since he doesn't really have a case on me, and there's also the fact that it's convenient for scum to get rid of town PRs. Check this post and the newer ones and you'll see that he has no case on me, he just comments that I "look worse" and never gives an explanation for that. I get that Dormio is lazy, but never to the levels of being proscum.

Quote from: Dormio Ergo Sum on February 05, 2015, 01:21:37 PM

I probably won't be on the computer by the time the day ends. I might switch to Mitsuki before I go to sleep. Who knows?

This line is also questionable since he leaves his options open to vote me or not depending on how things turn out to be. Note that he votes me after I hint I have a PR.

##Unovte
##Vote: Dormio

If I'm lynched today please lynch Dormio and Bardiche next (in that order). There is no way Dormio is not scum.

Bardiche · « **Reply #135 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM »

I'm reading this post and I'm still not clear: do you mean you think Raikaria is scummy now or not? Not not-scumreading means you ARE scumreading him?

I checked the post and I am now slightly understanding your beef with Mitsuki not commenting on what you feel is worth commenting on. Granted, Mitsuki's scope is extremely limited, but I do not see the scum intent as I honestly don't think there's a lot to comment on either, unless you want to be invited in for discussing things not relevant to scumhunting. (Or our scumhunting in any case.) I disagree with your beef there, because even after a second viewing, I don't see the immediate need to comment on it as being indication of "empty content post". Zakeri and Dan also post after it and do not provide more content than Mitsuki does in his post.

I'm curious why you do not have a similar beef with, well, basically everyone else who's ignored your post, or Raikaria who just quoted it all and went "wait what" but nothing else? I mean, it happens right before the Mitsuki vote, so I'm curious now about what distinction you made in that case.

Re: your claim that I've made stuff up: You're free to point out any fantasies in my arguments.

Raikaria: It's entirely possible to both think Sky Paladin is likely to be Scum and that Mitsuki is likely to be Scum. I'm voting Mitsuki because I have stronger feelings about Mitsuki than Sky Paladin. Mitsuki complains that where I see Scumreads, I should be seeing Nullreads because "Sky Paladin is always like this". This is a bogus case to me. If you consider that Mitsuki himself said that he has no scumreads, or very few, it becomes weird and suspect when they focus their content on defending players instead of finding scum. Basically, I feel like Mitsuki's content is devoid of any Scumreads save for one single Scumread, which is on me over a disagreement for whether or not Sky Paladin's actions are scummy.

While Sky Paladin is behaving in an Anti-Town and even Pro-Scum way, Mitsuki fits the profile of Scum who have difficulty of fabricating cases and flounder about helplessly for a while, then finally settle on something.

I feel like there's some misunderstanding about my spiel where Mitsuki cannot know if I'm right or wrong. The reason I bring it up is because Mitsuki's case hinges on me being wrong about whether or not Sky Paladin's actions are scum-minded. The only way for Mitsuki to know that they are not scum-minded for a fact and thus, that I am wrong is when Mitsuki knows Sky Paladin's alignment already. The only way Mitsuki can know and satisfy both conditions is when he's Scum and Sky Paladin is not. My logic therefore doesn't rely on Sky Paladin being Scum.

Outside of that, it's an interpretation issue, and I feel that making a case based on disagreeing with an interpretation on the basis that "by default, Sky Paladin's anti-Town actions are null" is not in-line with a Town line of thought. If the best and only case you can bring up is that someone thinks anti-Town actions are scummy, I take serious issue with your alignment.

I dislike Raikaria's spiel that it's impossible to have more than two Scumreads. Accepted: there are only two Scum. Not accepted: only two players can be accused of being Scum. It's a false dichotomy to claim I can only have two scumreads maximum, and it's moreover false to purport I consider a Mitsuki/Sky Paladin scumteam.

I similarly dislike Raikaria saying that there is "not much to comment on". There's plenty of stuff to comment on. There is more than just my three posts,

I'm not fond of Mitsuki relying almost entirely on meta. But that's a playstyle disagreement, I suppose.

Bulletlist of things:
- Sky Paladin: How do you feel about the people who ignored your speculation post, and how do you feel about Raikaria who acknowledged it with "wait what" and then further did not comment on it?
- Mitsuki: We agree to disagree on whether Sky Paladin is normally anti-Town. You mentioned that you felt a "Town Bard should know better" about Sky Pal. Let's assume that I do not "know better". What changes, if anything?
- Under no circumstance should Mitsuki tell us what he picked. That furthers a Scum agenda.

Please consider that last point:

If Mitsuki claims to have picked Doc, and flips Vanilla, we now know what role CF7 has. This information is useful to Scum. Do not provide them information.

I am skeptical of Sky Paladin not considering this.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #136 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:17:05 PM »

I dream that, one day, ActionDan may return to re-evaluate his vote, and since he townreads you, that would be one more vote on either Rai/Bard. From there the wagons are tied - at least til Just not me over me votes you. I don't think Rawr will change since he has no engagement with players in the thread except to taunt us that he isn't paying attention to the game, so the only other wildcard is Zak who is currently gutvoting you.

Even if you think Dormio is scum, starting a new wagon when you are the lead wagon at this stage of the phase seems like a risky move. I'm going to leave my vote on Bardiche.

Cut-- Wall by Bard. reading.

ActionDan · « **Reply #137 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:23:29 PM »

If a cw has to be formed immediately I'll

##Vote: Raikaria

I'm still very much against a mitsuki lynch, and since Sky asked it's because I liked her early posts. There are certain ticks in them that are demonstrative of critical thinking, in a town oriented way.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #138 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:26:55 PM »

I cannot stay up late to answer your post in detail, Just, but I suspect we'll both be around in the next day phase to continue it.

I'll just address this point:
"I am skeptical of Sky Paladin not considering this."

I am willing to dismiss the 1/36 chance that Mitsuki picked the same thing that CF7 did as insufficient to warrant consideration.

In this circumstance Mitsuki can claim, "I claimed the same thing as CF7" which is functionally a vanilla claim and we would have to lynch her.

However she twice hinted that she has a power role so I'm pretty confident she's not vanilla.

A high draft pick scum could fake claim if they had a low draft pick buddy who scored a power role. In effect they'd 'swap' roles to provide cover.

There's more but Im exhausted.

cut/Dan

I have ten more minutes. Ten minutes! To vote change. And I will consolidate to Raikaria if there's no more Just votes.

ActionDan · « **Reply #139 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:29:28 PM »

It's actually a 1/6 chance lol

ActionDan · « **Reply #140 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:30:35 PM »

Not gonna happen from me anyway

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #141 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:35:53 PM »

Sigh.

Non game related post inc.

Answers.

http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56502.html

Quote

For two rolls, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling a six on the first roll.
If this occurs, we've satisfied our condition. There is a 5/6 probability
that the first roll is not a 6. In that case, we need to see if the second
roll is a 6. The probability of the second roll being a 6 is 1/6, so our
overall probability is 1/6 + (5/6)*(1/6) = 11/36. Why did I multiply the
second 1/6 by 5/6? Because I only need to consider the 5/6 of the time that
the first roll wasn't a 6. As you can see the probability is slightly less
than 2/6.

Raikaria · « **Reply #142 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:37:47 PM »

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

Raikaria: It's entirely possible to both think Sky Paladin is likely to be Scum and that Mitsuki is likely to be Scum. I'm voting Mitsuki because I have stronger feelings about Mitsuki than Sky Paladin. Mitsuki complains that where I see Scumreads, I should be seeing Nullreads because "Sky Paladin is always like this". This is a bogus case to me. If you consider that Mitsuki himself said that he has no scumreads, or very few, it becomes weird and suspect when they focus their content on defending players instead of finding scum. Basically, I feel like Mitsuki's content is devoid of any Scumreads save for one single Scumread, which is on me over a disagreement for whether or not Sky Paladin's actions are scummy.

While Sky Paladin is behaving in an Anti-Town and even Pro-Scum way, Mitsuki fits the profile of Scum who have difficulty of fabricating cases and flounder about helplessly for a while, then finally settle on something.

To me it seemed as if your lynchpin reason for voting Mitsuki was protecting Sky; who you just cased. To me, it seems suspect that you were voting Mitsuki rather than Sky after that.

And there's no issue with having multiple scumreads; but constantly pushing a scumpair while voting someone else is strange when we know there is only 2 scums. It feels to me that you should be voting one of Mitsuki or Sky; since you seem to have a far stronger case on them than you do on me.

Is there really that much else for me to comment on? I already talked about Sky's early posts, and I don't honestly think there is much indicative in people talking about my derping, and those are the main two topics. I could talk about how Dormio and Dan haven't done much of note; or other minor things like that but that's not going to get us anywhere.

Bardiche · « **Reply #143 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:40:36 PM »

Re-reading my post, I need to correct that I was voting Mitsuki because I thought he was Scum, but I am now voting Raikaria because I think Raikaria is more likely to be Scum. While I'm positive about the fact he's gained clarity and remembers how to play the game now, I don't accept his explanation for why he didn't check the role list:

It's not possible to have drafted two months ago as drafting only started this week, and SB actually adjusted the size of the game on Jan 31 by dropping 3 roles. I don't feel it's acceptable to say you checked the role list two months ago and then didn't look at it afterwards in spite of changing gamestate. Let's assume for even a moment that Raikaria honestly believed Factional Kill referred to Vigilantes as well; I still do not accept that his state of confusion could last 48 hours and then the only thing worth commenting on is three posts I made. If after 48 hours you only have one read and no comments on anything else, well, I'm not inclined to think you're actually trying to scumhunt.

Cut by three posts.

Quote

I am willing to dismiss the 1/36 chance that Mitsuki picked the same thing that CF7 did as insufficient to warrant consideration.

I don't think you know how odds work.

Cut by more posts. Posting now.

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #144 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:42:09 PM »

WE ARE NOT FUCKING ARGUING MATHS. Google it or GTFO.

Bardiche · « **Reply #145 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:45:29 PM »

Because Sky Paladin sucks at odds:

There are 36 possible combinations. 6 of those combinations have the same result: they picked the same role. 6/36 is equal to 1/6.

QED, there's a 1/6 odds of Mitsuki and CF7 having picked the exact same role.

--

Raikaria, I haven't seen much worthwhile commenting on any of Sky's posts. If we discount your confused babbling, there's zilch. Surely something like, "Oh hey, I am town reading x" is in the realm of possibilities. Surely "I feel suspicious about x's posts" is also in the realm of possibilities? If you spend 48 hours flailing about with no clue on scum in any direction, I'd expect you to want to make up for lost effort and take the time to validate why x over y. After all, you were trying to resolve a three-way tie.

Bardiche · « **Reply #146 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:47:46 PM »

It's not "arguing maths" so much as you proposing a pro-scum agenda and using mathematical illiteracy as excuse when called on it. Revealing what you picked helps Scum figure out who has what after you flip Vanilla. You should therefore never reveal what you picked, and only ever claim what you actually GOT.

Mitsuki · « **Reply #147 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:49:06 PM »

Baka Bardiche-sempai, calling a girl a "he" is so rude </3

Let me reply to some of your points.

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

If you consider that Mitsuki himself said that he has no scumreads, or very few, it becomes weird and suspect when they focus their content on defending players instead of finding scum. Basically, I feel like Mitsuki's content is devoid of any Scumreads save for one single Scumread, which is on me over a disagreement for whether or not Sky Paladin's actions are scummy.

Two scumreads now and a whole lot of townreads. There are people who don't have many reads but that's only natural, there hasn't been much content and a lot of the players are being inactive.
Anyways my intention was not to defend Sky Paladin, it was to comment on scummy stuff. Defending Sky Paladin was a side effect of what I was doing.

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

The reason I bring it up is because Mitsuki's case hinges on me being wrong about whether or not Sky Paladin's actions are scum-minded. The only way for Mitsuki to know that they are not scum-minded for a fact and thus, that I am wrong is when Mitsuki knows Sky Paladin's alignment already. The only way Mitsuki can know and satisfy both conditions is when he's Scum and Sky Paladin is not.

I don't know anything for a fact. You don't either (unless one of us is scum blah blah). All we can do to scumhunt is to rely on what we think to keep going. I think SkyPal isn't scum, I'm not certain that he isn't.

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

Outside of that, it's an interpretation issue, and I feel that making a case based on disagreeing with an interpretation on the basis that "by default, Sky Paladin's anti-Town actions are null" is not in-line with a Town line of thought. If the best and only case you can bring up is that someone thinks anti-Town actions are scummy, I take serious issue with your alignment.

I think there are better tells, which I'm using, than to discern whether or not Sky's actions are scummy. Anyways that wasn't the base of my case, the base is that I saw scum intent, and I tried to explain it the best way I could. I should probably review my logic once more tough.

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

You mentioned that you felt a "Town Bard should know better" about Sky Pal. Let's assume that I do not "know better". What changes, if anything?

Well, I thought you relied more on "meta" scumtells instead of standard scumtells, but now that I think about it and I've checked your meta I don't think you do. Sigh. I should probably review my case.
... that does not reply the question. Basically, I've seen scum applying standard scumtells without taking in mind playerstyle nor context, so I think that's a pretty decent scumtell. Scum need to bullshit cases at some point or the other, and that is an easy way to do it.

Quote from: Just on February 05, 2015, 02:13:41 PM

If Mitsuki claims to have picked Doc, and flips Vanilla, we now know what role CF7 has. This information is useful to Scum. Do not provide them information.

Why would scum claim a role they don't have? It'd just make them confscum.

Eh I'm not sure on Bardiche anymore, that last post gives me more of a town feeling than a scum feeling. I need to reconsider. Anyways @Bardiche and SkyPal you guys should give your thoughts on Dormio: Do you think he's town/scum? Why? What do you think of his vote on me?

10 new replies what the fuck

Sky_Paladin · « **Reply #148 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:51:57 PM »

I'm sorry, you are right. I am very tired and sick and should have been in bed half an hour ago. I was considering it only from random choice perspective e.g. the odds of two sixes coming up. I didn't consider two 1s, two 2, two 3s ,etc.

I therefore submit to you if she picked the same thing as CF7 to claim vanilla. Which is sadly the same thing scum will have to claim. And therefore no choice but to lynch.

However its seems irrelevant because its strongly implied she is roled.

cuts by walls no I want to sleep

Mitsuki · « **Reply #149 on:** February 05, 2015, 02:58:25 PM »

I'm not sure I follow Bardiche's logic on claiming/not claiming so I'll just ask: Bardiche, will it change anything for you if I claim? Will it serve some purpose? Obviously I won't just claim but also explain my logic on my pick. I'm not vanilla, anyways (wow, what a surprise).