Touhou: Awareness of Color Mafia. Day 3.

[Schezo]

getting a free nl or a lynch on not scum doesn't sound that bad to scum to me.

[Bardiche]

Everyone's compulsive, yet I didn't send in any Night 0 actions. That seems suspect to me; someone deliberately used their ability Night 0 to hamper ActionDan with a negative ability.

[Chaore]

Everyone's compulsive, yet I didn't send in any Night 0 actions. That seems suspect to me; someone deliberately used their ability Night 0 to hamper ActionDan with a negative ability.

uh, Bard.

All that means is you couldn't and they could- and thus would be compulsed to. If actions are compulsion THERE IS LITERALLY no matter of choice.

[Bardiche]

Above meaning I don't think Night 0 is one of the compulsive action nights, considering the mod didn't even say anything to me about not sending in actions. If he can clarify, that'd be helpful. Even if not, and suppose ActionDan was compulsively targeted by someone who imposes a Do-or-Die post restriction, that's still sufficient reason to say there was a 3/15 at best odds of the role randomly targeting Scum who would so carelessly ignore a post restriction on them.

Sorry, I just don't think it's very likely the power originated from a Town-minded player. At its very best, it is a power that heavily punishes Town for one of its members' powers. There is literally no positive side to the effect for Town, other than forcing us into a lynch on someone who we might not even want to lynch. Right now, it's making it so we either lynch someone we don't want to really lynch, or we abstain and forego a lynch, meaning the only one dying is by scum's device. That's net loss for us either way, I think.

Keep in mind that Lynch is Town's primary weapon to kill the Scums, and we can only No Lynch once. Subsequent uses of this ability pretty much fuck over Town by wasting denying us our lynch, especially if the post restrictions get harsher later on.

Even if we lynch Dan, there's no information to be gleaned. At its very best, we may lynch a Scum on 3/15 odds, or we retain our ability to No Lynch later on. I don't think the gamble is worth it.


Cut. My role PM didn't mention I couldn't act Night 0, I didn't even realise the confirmation phase was Night 0.

[Serela]

Are you attacking me because of this post? Because if you are, I think you should address its points rather than say "it was bad, and since we've already proven Dan is town, therefore O4rfish is scum"

You're seriously overreacting here.

That being said I -do- think it's a scummy reaction, because it's pretty unjustified and draws a lot of reaching conclusions.

If I had a post restriction placed upon me by someone else, and was not restricted from claiming it, then claiming it is the first thing I'd do. The fact that town gets tangled in knots about it is their own fault, and completely ridiculous response from town. (You say it's bad because it distracts town; the real issue here is town shouldn't be having a conniption over someone having a non-intrusive PR) Voting the person over being simply given a PR is also ridiculous (before it was modconfirmed and could be a lie, there had been nothing claimed that would give any reason for someone to bother lying about it), and IMO seems like a scum move because it gives them something to vote without having to legitimately scumhunt.

You also said it's bad because then Dan could excuse having anti-town powers off the PR later. This is reaching and terrible because you're assuming Dan is going to do bad things and excuse it on a PR; the reality is there's no justification to use this a point against him unless there was ACTUALLY SIGNS of him doing this.

Your other points about how it was bad (like the links to supposedly unlocking anti-town powers) were involved in poor reading comprehension resulting in misinterpretations of what Dan said. Half of what I've been complaining about this game is pretty much just people having poor reading comprehension, actually. :T

[Dr Rawr]

And it's hardly "incredibly" anti-town considering how easy it should be to not break it. If it was a scum ability why choose one of the players likely to make way less posts to muck up?

its anti-town because it gets the player killed if they do manage to mess up. though youre right why would scum target actiondan with a post restriction?

i guess we could also think this out as a townie who doesnt want to reveal himself that gave dan the post restriction to gain roles. i feel like if i think about it this way actiondan should claim

[O4rfish]

If I had a post restriction placed upon me by someone else, and was not restricted from claiming it, then claiming it is the first thing I'd do. The fact that town gets tangled in knots about it is their own fault, and completely ridiculous response from town. (You say it's bad because it distracts town; the real issue here is town shouldn't be having a conniption over someone having a non-intrusive PR) Voting the person over being simply given a PR is also ridiculous (before it was modconfirmed and could be a lie, there had been nothing claimed that would give any reason for someone to bother lying about it)

Well, I disagree.

Re: reading comprehension: I hadn't considered Dan given a PR by another player, because his posts weren't clear. Are you saying your reading comprehension was so good you actually did discern that meaning then?

Calling my reaction scummy, aside from being wrong, is kind of beside the point: today we can only lynch Dan or Nobody, so we should be examining whether he is Town enough to save. I assert he is not. Is there a good chance that he is scum? I say there is.

##Vote: ActionDan

[O4rfish]

Let's examine what Dan has actually done this game: an RVS vote.
Pointed out his PR.
A prod, or request for explanation, or whatever you call those kind of posts.
Two separate posts explaining his PR, and hinting at additional effects.
I interpreted those posts in a way that made me suspect him.
He posted less of a rebuttal than more explanation, and asking Massaca to defend his content.
He then launches a flurry of posts that get CF7 to scold him in public.
He makes a post saying essentially nothing, which also makes him occupy the chopping block.
Then he has some other posts about game theory.

Where is the actual content? Only two of his posts can be said to be from a mindset of town trying to influence and scumhunt, and one of those two is just unvoting his rvs vote. Whereas, many of his posts can be explained from a mindset of scum trying to influence and obfuscate.

[Bardiche]

Is there a good chance that he is scum? I say there is.

You should provide the reasons to support this claim.

Cut by you trying exactly that.

I interpreted those posts in a way that made me suspect him.

It looks to me more like, "I suspect him, so I interpreted those posts in the way I did", rather than those posts being the cause of suspicion. Fabricated suspicions, if you will. You're not exactly clear on why a Townie wouldn't do the things Dan did but Scum would, and why the (reasonable) alternative of a Scum!Dan not even mentioning the restriction is impossible.

I don't see the "mindset of scum trying to influence and obfuscate", so you should clarify exactly how these posts of Dan influence and/or obfuscate anything. Townies being shit at producing content is a staple of MOTK Town.

You now know that ActionDan's Post Restriction has the Effect of making him the only lynch target: why is it reasonable to assume Scum!ActionDan paid so little attention to preventing a duel with No Lynch-tan and make himself into the D1 lynch?

[Sky_Paladin]

Votecount of the forgotten chojin lantern. 

ActionDan (4): CF7, Dr Rawr, Dormio, Oarfish
Sky_Paladin (4): Dorian, Raikaria, Just, Serela

Not voting.
Chaore, BT, Moridin84, Zakeri, Massaca, Schezo, SB, NNR, ActionDan

With sixteen players alive, you require nine votes for a hammer.

Caution:  One day remaining.

[Bardiche]

Every time Sky Paladin posts I half-expect some drunken rambling about painkillers and aphrodisiacs followed by proclamations of his undying love for Dormio-nee-chan.

[Chaore]

Every time Sky Paladin posts I half-expect some drunken rambling about painkillers and aphrodisiacs followed by proclamations of his undying love for Dormio-nee-chan.

I could take his place if you'd like, there's plenty of booze in the fridge.

I'll bring Keine-tan along too!

[O4rfish]

I am not exactly accusing Dan of being Scum, I am just saying his actions make more sense to me as Scum than as Town, which means regardless of whether or not he is actually Scum, we should choose to lynch him instead of nobody.

Let's examine what Dan has actually done this game: an RVS vote.
Pointed out his PR.
A prod, or request for explanation, or whatever you call those kind of posts.
Two separate posts explaining his PR, and hinting at additional effects.
I interpreted those posts in a way that made me suspect him.

Let's pretend we are in Dan's position as Town. Someone has put a PR on us. For Serela's "because I can" reason, we announce that we have a PR. We also try to let people know that probably an anti-town player has put this on us.
Then, someone makes a post accusing us of making it up, and furthermore of providing an excuse for later disclosing that we have anti-town powers.
What is our response?

He posted less of a rebuttal than more explanation, and asking Massaca to defend his content.
He then launches a flurry of posts that get CF7 to scold him in public.

We respond by explaining our PR some more, unvoting our RVS, and incidentally breaking our PR.
We don't argue for how town we are. We don't say how unlikely we are to be scum, or to have intentionally faked a PR on ourselves. Instead, we activate it, which DISPLAYS how we are unlikely to have put it on ourselves.

He makes a post saying essentially nothing, which also makes him occupy the chopping block.
Then he has some other posts about game theory.

Finally, we say "oh, I'll defend myself later, can't be bothered to do it now" even though for a Town player, helping the other Town to make the right choice in this instance would be nigh all-important, second only to scumhunting ... which he doesn't do either.

In my next post, let's look at this from Scum position.

[Serela]

Calling my reaction scummy, aside from being wrong, is kind of beside the point: today we can only lynch Dan or Nobody, so we should be examining whether he is Town enough to save.

I'm just going to point out the irony in seeing you say this after I was doing that, and then you specifically called me out to look at you instead :V But w/e.

About your AD analysis; I do have to admit there's not much play in there, but at the same time you play it up to be a lot worse than it is. Half of the posts are from RVS and I don't really get the "scum trying to influence and obfuscate" part. You mean him being slow to properly explain his PR? (Which was done imo before he had to restate it in the "rebuttal" post)

Are you saying your reading comprehension was so good you actually did discern that meaning then?

To me it seems really simple because there's just no other possible conclusion to come to; he clearly stated it was not part of his role, therefore it must have come from someone else. D: I'm not trying to be offensive or anything but it's like 1+1=2 to me. Then (in a different subject not related to you afaik) there's people still unsure about whether n0 actually existed and was actionable, and I'm just like "uh, Dan is modconfirmed to have gotten post restricted, the most clear explanation is that yes, when he said it was n0 it was an actual n0" and I don't understand what other realistic possibilities there even are.

cut, let's see here

We respond by explaining our PR some more, unvoting our RVS, and incidentally breaking our PR.
We don't argue for how town we are. We don't say how unlikely we are to be scum, or to have intentionally faked a PR on ourselves. Instead, we activate it, which DISPLAYS how we are unlikely to have put it on ourselves.

um, this is crazy biased, it reads like you're saying Dan is scummier for having broken the PR (even though as scum, I cannot fathom why they would risk being made the only possible lynch- sure, this is actually playing out with a good chance of Dan not getting lynched, but it's so insanely suicidal and unnecessary)

I don't really understand what you were expecting Dan to do otherwise in his responses? Like, a good portion of the attacks (if not all, too lazy to reread) at him over the PR were doing so over false interpretations that didn't actually match up to what he had claimed. And as far as I can tell, you're basically complaining he didn't resort to Appeal to Emotion and Wine In Front of Me as explanations for him being town. Like, I don't get it :S

[Serela]

>attacked over having a post restriction, attacks claim the PR to have attributes he did not actually claim it to have
>responds by more thoroughly explaining the nature of the PR and questioning one of the people over the reasoning for their accusation

this is a scummy response how?

[Chaore]

Honestly I'm finding a lot of reasons to not care about this game at the moment.

Could I get a run down on why I should sheep to our No lynch overlords now instead of you know, saving this when some schmuck fucks it up again in the future? Like, why is Saving Dan's life overwhelmingly the best choice here.

We're giving this post restriction a LOT of power if it hits us again by wasting our No Lynch this early in the game. This is overwhelmingly a win win for Scum either way, assuming it is scum-motivated, but uh if we us No lynch here we give them even more power if we fuck it up again in the future by having no out if this happens at a critical point in the game.

I could be doing the numbers wrong, but I don't really feel like Dan's continued presence in the game is worth not having a response to this happening again on someone we actually care about. I completely understand the motion that a Dan lynch her is a kind of worthless Mislynch, but I really feel we don't want to have no choice because we choose to save the Dan.

I'd say 'we could just not trigger it again' but I'm well aware who I'm playing with.

[Serela]

I'd say 'we could just not trigger it again' but I'm well aware who I'm playing with.

I know very well how easy it is to accidentally forget to make a tiny difference in the post, especially when it's just a tiny side comment or EBWOP or something. As easy as it theoretically would be to avoid this happening again, it's entirely possible it would despite anyone's best intentions upon receiving a restriction.

[Chaore]

I know very well how easy it is to accidentally forget to make a tiny difference in the post, especially when it's just a tiny side comment or EBWOP or something. As easy as it theoretically would be to avoid this happening again, it's entirely possible it would despite anyone's best intentions upon receiving a restriction.

Basically a less assholish way of what I was getting at, tbh.

Thank you.

[O4rfish]

Let's examine what Dan has actually done this game: an RVS vote.
Pointed out his PR.
A prod, or request for explanation, or whatever you call those kind of posts.
Two separate posts explaining his PR, and hinting at additional effects.

We are ActionDan, and we are scum. We have some scum friends as well.
What do we do first, aside from an RVS vote? Let's have someone put a Post Restriction on us, or announce that someone has. Our plan: assuming we don't violate the PR, we can (1) use it to disguise the source of day powers or whatever. Alternatively, we can (2) violate the PR intentionally to use up Town's no-lynch. Alternatively, we can (3) say "oh scum put a PR on us, we must be town" so our plan has options.

I interpreted those posts in a way that made me suspect him.

A town player has accused us of being scum, essentially. Not exactly what O4rfish did, but since we ARE scum, it is exactly what he did. This means option 1 is no longer valid, and to get to option 3 we decide to go through option 2. If the PR wasn't actually in place before, it is now.

He posted less of a rebuttal than more explanation, and asking Massaca to defend his content.
He then launches a flurry of posts that get CF7 to scold him in public.
He makes a post saying essentially nothing, which also makes him occupy the chopping block.
Then he has some other posts about game theory.

Our scum friends can probably ensure that, either we don't get lynched (which means we get to use Option 3 and also get to use up Town's no-lynch) or we DO get lynched and they get some amount of bus credit.

Admittedly this is a stretch, but I think it is somewhat likely.

We are ourselves again. Our two options are Lynch Dan or Use Up Our No-Lynch.
Lynch Dan: he might be scum, or he might be Town but Not Worth Saving. Both of these cases are covered by my two recent posts.
No-Lynch: Saving Dan is better than mislynching him. Scum probably put the PR on him, so he is Probably Town.

[Schezo]

Oarfish is crazy.

If you think he's town not worth saving you say it's because he hasn't contributed to anything.  Nice, there wasn't anything to really contribute to anyways.
Ok so let's run with this he didn't contribute. 
Lynching at this point doesn't do a goddam thing for town.  Like literally nothing since his flip won't matter except we start day 2 down 2 guys instead of 1.
Yes the prospect of the 3/16 scum hit seems enticing but the more safe play is to just suck up that we lose 1 guy from the n1 and start day 2 with a little lead and go from there.

Were he to actually have done something to get a day 1 wagon going I would have been all for lynching him.  No one really cared he existed just to take a jab at his power role claim and leave him there.  That's all that happened then he dun screwed the pooch so no one even cares what people thought about him since no one thought anything about him.

We just have to start day 2 where we can vote again because every post for the rest of the day is gonna be "re: dan" 

[NekoNekoRex]

##Vote: No Lynch

I don't see the benefit in lynching Dan. He hasn't done anything explicitly scummy, and lynching him is more likely to flip a town player who got PR'd by scum N0 then it is for him to flip scum with a shitty role.

Flipping Dan for the hell of it has no implicit benefits and wouldn't reveal much in the way of read cables tied to other players. There's not even a decent way to figure out who did it since the action was done before the game began proper.

[Raikaria]

Yep, this post restriction is clearly not a townie thing, and therefor, Dan being hit by it probobly means he is town.

Our objective is to lynch the scum. Not lynch the town.

[ActionDan]

We are ActionDan, and we are scum. We have some scum friends as well.
What do we do first, aside from an RVS vote? Let's have someone put a Post Restriction on us, or announce that someone has. Our plan: assuming we don't violate the PR, we can (1) use it to disguise the source of day powers or whatever. Alternatively, we can (2) violate the PR intentionally to use up Town's no-lynch. Alternatively, we can (3) say "oh scum put a PR on us, we must be town" so our plan has options.
A town player has accused us of being scum, essentially. Not exactly what O4rfish did, but since we ARE scum, it is exactly what he did. This means option 1 is no longer valid, and to get to option 3 we decide to go through option 2. If the PR wasn't actually in place before, it is now.
Our scum friends can probably ensure that, either we don't get lynched (which means we get to use Option 3 and also get to use up Town's no-lynch) or we DO get lynched and they get some amount of bus credit.

Admittedly this is a stretch, but I think it is somewhat likely.

We are ourselves again. Our two options are Lynch Dan or Use Up Our No-Lynch.
Lynch Dan: he might be scum, or he might be Town but Not Worth Saving. Both of these cases are covered by my two recent posts.
No-Lynch: Saving Dan is better than mislynching him. Scum probably put the PR on him, so he is Probably Town.

You give three options a scum!me would take yet perpetuate a theory that as scum I'd simultaneously choose to directly engage in 2 of them.  Option 2 might have successfully been achieved precisely when the mod confirmed I violated the post restriction because The major source of discontent was whether or not it was real in the first place because of the way I claimed... A position you seemed to have taken up the gauntlet.  Once it became obvious that it was real no one really cared about it.  But you are suggesting that that wasn't enough for ActionDan.   Gotta go extreme and jeopardize what cred was gotten by going for broke and facing a battle against a no Lynch which would obviously be unpopular because... _____(yolo)?  Really?

You admit it's a stretch that apparently the grand plan here is to soak up the no Lynch (which btw,  is not awful because we have even numbers and is a threat to scum too because everyone loses on the 2nd no lynch) or else have scum buddies get bus credit (lol it only cost a scum friend to die when they were in a safe position that could have been bussed better when there weren't literally two choices to make).  It's a "stretch" to find these bizarre scum motivations to end up as the only live candidate for a Lynch yet it's "likely".  Good show. 

You're trying real hard to buy in to a narrative where I'm scum and have been doing so since the get go.  Because as of now the other position is "town not worth saving" which is frankly bullshit.  If you think I'm town I'm worth saving because that puts scum 1 mislynch closer to winning the game (this applies to chaore.  And dormito and rawr who I believe mostly fear losing a no lynch ).

 

[Bardiche]

Admittedly this is a stretch, but I think it is somewhat likely.

You really think it's likely Scum would force a 1v1 with No Lynch-tan? Schezo says it better:

Oarfish is crazy.

[Bardiche]

It's like walking across the street, seeing a boy help an old lady across the street. But instead of thinking, "What a nice boy", you go, "Well, the boy could be a thief. I think it's likely he's helping her across so everyone'll think he's a nice boy, then he'll push her over and secretly take her wallet while trying to make everyone believe she just tripped!"

It is certainly in the realm of possibilities, but it's not an explanation that jives well with people's common sense. Your argument pretty much relies on ActionDan being retarded as fuck.

[Bardiche]

Your argument also still leaves out why it's unlikely for Town!ActionDan to have behaved as he has. Highlighting only one scenario is biased argumentation, one should always explain why the reasonable alternative is unlikely.

[Moridin]

If ActionDan would post some kind of rebuttable it would be great.

I'm kind of inclined to lynch ActionDan just so things will be less confusing. If he could make a clear and convincing explanation/summary of everything I'd change my mind.

Every time Sky Paladin posts I half-expect some drunken rambling about painkillers and aphrodisiacs followed by proclamations of his undying love for Dormio-nee-chan.

Oh... he does that here as well?

[Raikaria]

I don't think the question at hand is ActionDan's merits as town and if he is 'worth' keeping but if ActionDan is town or not.

We need to ask 'Is this restriction a scum move?'. If so, this basically clears Actiondan in my opinion. Scum would not place a restriction on themselves and then forget about it and get themselves lynched, honestly, in my opinion.

If it is a scum-oriented move, this means Actiondan is almost certainly town.

Which means we should not lynch Actiondan. It's not like we get many correlated reads by lynching him, he's not really been in any big fights or 1v1's except this one with No-Lynch Tan.

And honestly anyone who basically is saying 'We should lynch Actiondan because I don't think he's worth the NL' is very quickly rising in my opinion of being scum. Because they are saying 'I think Actiondan is town but let's lynch him anyway'.

[ActionDan]

Moridin what rebuttal to what exactly are you expecting/wanting?  If it's to oar fish's accusation that I excessively talk about the post restriction in lieu of scum hunting then my response would be that it concerned me more to be clear about the information I was sharing in the early pages of the game than concern myself with analyzing low content early game posts typical of rvs. since multiple people were suspicious of the claimed post restriction the content being created naturally stemming from these interactions is fine material to use to scum hunt anyway and i felt i was contributing.   Plus oarfish himself has not focused on anything whatsoever besides the post restriction himself so the complaint is pot meet kettle.   

If you want a rebuttal to your own manifesto about why we should lynch me then my response is that of your 3 points 2 are basically already confirmed and your only remaining point is "1. We learn if action Dan is town".  Which maybe you think is sufficient for a lynch but lol try applying that to anyone else under normal circumstances.  Day 2 start with "we should lynch ____ to learn if their town." "Your rebuttal sir?"

[Serela]

I think moridin still doesn't understand the post restriction entirely actually