Communication Breakdance (Game Over! Town win)

[Edible]

A VERY ballsy Alice claim from a couple games ago that fooled us completely.

He was there.  If you'll recall, Sodium WAS the doc that time.  We lynched him instead of Alice. :V

[UncertainJakutten]

A VERY ballsy Alice claim from a couple games ago that fooled us completely.

He was there.  If you'll recall, Sodium WAS the doc that time.  We lynched him instead of Alice. :V

Oh yeah. Makes it more likely he might try it as scum IMO.

[Sodium]

...Oh right, that game. I brain bleached it because it made me very sad. ;_; I dunno how I messed up that badly in Worker's Union.

But I swear that's what it said on my role PM. It's either a coincidence or Zakeri is screwing with us.

[UncertainJakutten]

This denial and lack of attention is getting old. It's easy to say "oh I forgot" or "Oh, I didn't notice".

I don't like it.

[Sodium]

What? I said what my Role PM said(obviously not word by word, but you know what I mean). Did you want me to lie about it so it isn't similar to a previous claim in a previous game?

[Kilgamayan]

Not sure I believe this claim. I would think DocSodium would have tried much harder to defend himself than he has today.

[Edible]

I don't think anyone believes it.  I'm just waiting for everyone to say their piece - otherwise, I'm prepared to hammer at any time.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

I'd like at least everyone to post before a hammer occurs, in case of a doc counterclaim. Otherwise, I'm starting to grow much more worried about Edible by the moment. An analysis of his posts shows that he is playing the almost stereotypical active lurker, and as much as I like my exploits reminisced about, it's quite telling that he had only four serious posts D1, and the only one of his posts that has content in it is his Serp vote post, which, while notable...is the only one of his posts D2 that's game-related. So I'm curious what you thought of Sodium 3-iodo-L-Tyrosine before his roleclaim (which, I will grant, is suspicious as heck, but I'd like to wait around for a possible CC first), of Heniwac, etc.

[Edible]

I mentioned here what I thought of Sodium well before his claim (don't know how I can make my feelings any more clear than "he's the obvious lynch").  I haven't mentioned Tasty Chicken Guy because, as with Day 1, I think he's town and thus not worth wasting time on.

[WHMZakeri]

The "Someone's apparently about the spill the salt" Votecount.

Kitten4U: Roukanken (L-6)
EX Na2O2: Kilgamayan, Pesco, UncertainKitten, Kiro, Alice Margatroid, Khorneish Game Hen (L-2)
Khorneish Game Hen: EX Na2O2, Serpentarius, Kitten4U, Kiro, Pesco (L-1)
Serpentarius: Edible? (L-5)
Alice Margatroid: Roukanken (L-5)

Not Voting: No one

Sodium is at L-1
There is still around 31 hours in the day, just incase anyone wanted to know.

Edit: Seniwac is now at L-1 due to voting changes below.

[Pesco]

Quick reply here. Sodium's claim is blarghargh. Seniwac's vote looks pretty suspect as a self preservation move. Both tied at L-2, he puts L-1 and we have the circus in town again.

##Unvote for now. I'll get some Sodium anal up in a moment.

[Pesco]

Individual analsecks with Seniwac and Sodium

==========

First off; Seniwac's posts for day 2 are a load of defensive crap. 2 posts of nothing that do cheer on Sodium's wagon. I believe he could have done better than just short posts (more confrontation rather than sniping I mean) and declared his intention to vote. Contrast to how Serp played it here. Even Edible's post, although not voting Sodium, still shows that he's doing useful stuff. Kiro's comment on this regard is also noted.

Sodium's attacks against me are incredibly and hilarious suited to him right now. And that's not a joke. Looking awfully suspicious.

So why didn't you switch votes to Zengar earlier, especially when my wagon was dying down? If you found him very suspicious, why didn't you pursue the easier lynch?

Also I find it amusing that a portion of your case rests on "I DID IT WHEN I WAS SCUM." Just because you did it once and you were scum doesn't mean I am scum when I do it.

##VOTE EXNA2O2

Roleclaim, etc.

Up to this vote post, Sodium had been making decent effort to post a bit more than obvscum waffle. Seniwac's posting the entire day gives off the feel of paranoid scum that's worrying about his borrowed time. Like I said above, L-1 puts in a big swing.

==========

The thing is, those are both really really easy to fake.  Clearing someone based on bad play is never a good idea.

*puts on Pesco ears*
I'm having trouble believing Sodium would be able to pull something like that off, usa~.

The point that bumped Sodium above KGH on my list of suspicions was his 362 where he drops a vote on KGH without any attempt to look at the case in the context of Zengar's flip.

Alright, first off, I should explicitly point out that Zengar's flip does nothing at all to make KGH look more townie.

When I first read this, I was a little annoyed at Rou resorting to PescoLogic^TM. That aside, daytalk coaching still makes it a liklihood. Tbh, I do kinda feel Sodium isn't that good to pull it off. It's not exactly a strong point for consideration, but it has minor influence.

The main point of this post was to look over Sodium's posts to check out the validity of his protection claim. There's nothing contrary to his choice from what I can see, but due to how open ended it is, this is no confirmation either. We've only got his word for it pending a counterclaim.

==========

Facts alone from this anal, Sodium looks slightly better because of consistency (his voting and night action). Seniwac has been playing a purely reactionary game. I would conclude from this, one of them is definitely scum. BUT, Sodium flipping scum does not make Seniwac auto town. Seniwac has a possibility of being Survivor. I would rule out SK at this stage because I don't think he would hold back on making kills. There's also that we didn't ask for clarification whether killing roles are obliged to kill or not.

I'm swinging ##Vote Seniwac. Waiting Cutting Kiro's post

@Mod: Confirm killing factions may or may not choose to forgo a kill?

Confirmed. They don't have to kill if they choose not to, and forgetting to send in one leads to a no kill.

[Kiro]

Kilga: My train of thought right now is:

If KGH flips Scum, Sodium is looking more like a Townie.
If KGH flips Townie, Sodium is looking more like Scum.
If Sodium flips either Town or Scum, I still have no clue what KGH would be and he's not doing a damn thing in proving any towniness.

If we're wrong about Sodium, we would have lost someone who has been trying to contribute his opinions since the beginning of the game. Since KGH wasn't doing crap and nobody bothered to mention it for awhile, he's much more of an enigma than Sodium and far less useful. Hell, call it more of a liability with the lack of scumhunting or even a case. His first post of Day 2 in #367 doesn't say shit about anything, whether it is saying who is likely scum or even if he intended to vote Sodium except that it'd take him to L-1. And suddenly in #407, he gets his vote in on Sodium to L-1; not sure what he was prompted by. But his reasoning is hardly involved and Sodium doesn't do a bad job in his reply to KGH in #412 and manages to reiterate his case on KGH at the same time. Would like to see KGH's response to #412.

---

I'm leaning more on believing the doc claim. The way he's wording it seems to have a semblance of truth. Hell, if he were Scum and wanted to make it more believable, he probably could have said he protected me last night and there probably would be less of a fuss on whether it's believable or not since he's not mentioning that he has any particular suspicions about me. The fact that he's kinda unsure about why he picked Serp actually makes it more believable in a weird way as he considered WIFOM games and he believes Serp is Town.

All of the above is some roundabout logic and subject to heavy interpretation. But heck, if no one counterclaims, I can believe it as all of Sodium's actions can be explained from a tunneling Townie perspective.  And in such a case, I'd rather see a KGH lynch who claims Vanilla Townie and only has suspicions on Sodium today along with an anti-Townie lack of contribution. I don't think any other case today would be more useful than either of these 2.

Pesco: Of course you're going to cut me, I haven't posted since the morning so I need to get this in before the following morning.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Okay, looking at the vote count I'm very confused. Do we need 6 or 7 votes to lynch? Because if it's 6, how can people be at L-7?
The main reason I'm asking this is that I'm uncertain as to whether KGH is at L-2 or L-1 following Pesco's switch. If it's the latter, he'd better claim now.

Sorry, I was the confused one. The L-? on Seniwac and Sodium were correct, but I forgot to mentally update the ones labeled as sevens and sixes. Fixed them in the previous votecount, but too lazy to fix them in the rest.

I'm just seeing KGH as the latest incarnation of the clueless newb. The new Wrathie/Baity/NF/other new guy who got himself lynched fast, basically. That said, I am willing to admit that he is sort of useless in terms of actual content, and that I'm willing to hammer if necessary (since clueless newb and clueless scum newb aren't that easy to tell apart).

Not sure I believe this claim. I would think DocSodium would have tried much harder to defend himself than he has today.

That's a pretty general accusation. You're trying to say that, if he wasn't a Doc, he'd be more willing to let himself die?

[Pesco]

Not sure I believe this claim. I would think DocSodium would have tried much harder to defend himself than he has today.

That's a pretty general accusation. You're trying to say that, if he wasn't a Doc, he'd be more willing to let himself die?

This is called a strawman.

[UncertainJakutten]

I can't say I'd be unhappy with a KGH lynch, but I can't say I like some of the justifications I'm seeing. Kiro in particular seems to be a just a few steps away from "Policy lynch lol"...I agree a lot of information will be...revealed pending KGH's flip. But I can't shake the feeling Sodium is not what he says he is...it might be tunneling and confirmation bias, but I just don't think Sodium is a doctor. Or if he is, he's a scum doc.

Either way, I'm about to head out. I'll be back before deadline to further consider KGH and Sodium respectively...

[Kitten4u]

I believe the claim.

The claim itself and his comments after sound genuine, and while I don't think the case on him is bad I still have a hard time seeing him as scum.  I don't think he faked that "I didn't know scum could daytalk" thing because he asked about something that the mod had stated in the sign up topic, and then he went on to misread that Zengar was at L-2 and not L-3.  The last of which actually made him look worse, so I don't think he faked it. 

I support a KGH lynch, but not a Sodium lynch right now.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga: My train of thought right now is:

If KGH flips Scum, Sodium is looking more like a Townie.
If KGH flips Townie, Sodium is looking more like Scum.
If Sodium flips either Town or Scum, I still have no clue what KGH would be and he's not doing a damn thing in proving any towniness.

If Sodium flips scum KGH is almost assuredly town.
If Sodium flips town then there's a fair chance KGH is scum. A very fair chance given KGH's play.

Not sure I believe this claim. I would think DocSodium would have tried much harder to defend himself than he has today.

That's a pretty general accusation. You're trying to say that, if he wasn't a Doc, he'd be more willing to let himself die?

I believe that, were he scum staring in the face of the case and vote pile against him, he would be more likely to half-ass a defense, whereas a town doctor would recognize their value and fight tooth and nail to avoid a lynch.

The scum precedent for defense effort has been set fairly low for this game.

Ultimately I won't object to a KGH lynch because he's been beyond useless and a good case in its own right exists against him, but I'd much rather work off the flip because most of KGH's indiscretions could be chalked up to noobplay.

[Kiro]

UK: If you say you're not unhappy about a possible KGH lynch, but don't like the justifications you're seeing, then what reasoning has been acceptable so far from the other people on his wagon? Also, it is not a policy lynch to lynch someone who has not taken the effort to form his own opinions or cases or to not throw down meaningful votes and coast by on both Days. That is scummy in its own right.

---

So I looked at the Day 1 wagons again with the Doc claim in consideration as well.

KGH prods Edible in #278 while his own wagon is at L-4 with Zengar at L-3. By the time he posts next in #315, the gap is just tighter at L-3 and L-2 respectively. If KGH were Scum, he could have sent Zengar to L-1 and get some Town cred but didn't. In his #275, he was a little uncommittal about Zengar until Zengar posts, but 3 minutes after he does, Sodium puts Zengar at L-1, obviously being cut with his long post. In other words, KGH's actions are consistent of a Townie waiting for a response before putting a meaningful vote down. It may be the only thing he's done that actually follows a Townie playbook.

While with Sodium, he says he'd stay on KGH at #288 after Kilga switched from Zengar to KGH putting KGH ahead L-3 to Zengar's L-4. Would fit as Scum if KGH is a Townie, but could reasonably fit as tunneling Townie. When Sodium comes back, he takes Zengar to L-1 including mentioning "Zengar's lousy post #250" which he apparently did not consider as much at the time of his #288. So the selective choice of Zengar over KGH at the end still stands out.

I guess if I want to factor in traditional play with how a game starts, KGH would probably not intentionally draw attention to himself with a Vanilla roleclaim at the start AND just keep his play at a low level if he were Scum. Heck, somebody would be bound to check up on him power role wise if he stayed alive for awhile. I guess he'd also have made a stronger effort to pursue a different case if he realized Scumbuddy Zengar was also on the chopping block next to him.

Sodium on the other hand is reasonably aggressive and an active poster in this game which may be a little surprising if he were the Town Doc. Furthermore, he made a bunch of questionable comments, bordering on being overeager. And Scum Sodium would benefit more from a switch to Zengar than Town Doc Sodium when he had been on KGH all day and the Zengar wagon was ahead anyways and likely to have been secured without his help.

I think Serp is the only one who hasn't had the chance to counterclaim. While I would prefer if someone were hiding a protective role to counterclaim and give us a greater confirmation in determining if Sodium's claim is fake, I can understand why someone might not be willing to reveal their role when the mood seems to be we'd lynch Sodium anyways. I'm convincing myself a little more that at least some of KGH's actions have some evidence of a Townie trend while Sodium's still stands out awkwardly. And I shouldn't be conclusively saying that Sodium's explanation of voting Serp is strong enough to reverse all of the evidence that has been charged against him. So back I go.

##Unvote KGH
##Vote Sodium

[Serp]

Bleh, this roleclaim comes packaged with way too much WIFOM.  There's the limited charges (to explain why another claimed power role doesn't end up protected later in the game), the possibility that the doc would hold his claim since Sodium looks to be up for the lynch anyway (as Kiro suggests), and furthermore, there's a janitor out there to add to the confusion.  Is it common for scum to get informed with the information they keep from the town by using their janitor?  It's quite possible that umu was the doc, scum learned this when they killed him, and scum could therefore know that they can claim doc without any risk of a counterclaim.

KGH is still policy lynch material, but I think people are putting too much stock in Sodium's roleclaim.  The lack of information provided by KGH's actions runs both ways, too - I don't think we'd get much information from his flip, whatever it is.  I still favor a Sodium lynch over a KGH one, and I'm ready to hammer Sodium at any time.

##Unvote: Khorneish Game Hen

[WHMZakeri]

The "like an ocean wave" Votecount.

Kitten4U: Roukanken (L-6)
EX Na2O2: Kilgamayan, Pesco, UncertainKitten, Kiro, Alice Margatroid, Khorneish Game Hen, Kiro (L-1)
Khorneish Game Hen: EX Na2O2, Serpentarius, Kitten4U, Kiro, Pesco (L-3)
Serpentarius: Edible? (L-5)
Alice Margatroid: Roukanken (L-5)

Not Voting: No one

Sodium is at L-1
There is still around 31 hours in the day, just incase anyone wanted to know.

Edit: Seniwac is now at L-1 due to voting changes below.

Nevermind, It's Sodium again

Also, there's 20 hours left.

[Pesco]

I'm hoping we can get a word in from Edible and Rou before anyone does hammer.

Simple numbers based on my post from earlier:
Sodium is likely to be scum or doc, 50/50
Seniwac is likely to be scum or VT or survivor/SK, 33/33/33

Overall Seniwac is less likely to be town. That keeps my vote.

[FinnKaenbyou]

I believe that, were he scum staring in the face of the case and vote pile against him, he would be more likely to half-ass a defense, whereas a town doctor would recognize their value and fight tooth and nail to avoid a lynch.

Your logic is that scum won't want to defend themselves as much as a Doc would? EVERYONE should want to defend themselves equally because their death will harm their faction whatever they are (excusing Jesters but that's an exceedingly rare case). Saying that certain roles want to live more than others is somewhat paradoxical.

The scum precedent for defense effort has been set fairly low for this game.

Assuming that other scum will play like Zengar = bad.

I'm hoping we can get a word in from Edible and Rou before anyone does hammer.

Simple numbers based on my post from earlier:
Sodium is likely to be scum or doc, 50/50
Seniwac is likely to be scum or VT or survivor/SK, 33/33/33

Overall Seniwac is less likely to be town. That keeps my vote.

You honestly believe that the odds of him being scum/VT/third-party are equal? What is this, Bayesian probability?

Personally I get the feeling we're misshooting with both of these lynches, especially Sodium. KGH I will hammer if no other case arises, because he really isn't helping in the slightest, but the lack of a Doc CC makes me relatively certain that Sodium's just getting called out for tunneling.

[Sodium]

While with Sodium, he says he'd stay on KGH at #288 after Kilga switched from Zengar to KGH putting KGH ahead L-3 to Zengar's L-4. Would fit as Scum if KGH is a Townie, but could reasonably fit as tunneling Townie. When Sodium comes back, he takes Zengar to L-1 including mentioning "Zengar's lousy post #250" which he apparently did not consider as much at the time of his #288. So the selective choice of Zengar over KGH at the end still stands out.

Zengar didn't make Post#250. Post#317 by me meant Post#300, but I put 250 for some reason.

inb4ANOTHERFUCKINGMISTAKE? Yeah, I'm going take a long break after this game, seeing as I can't seem to properly read or write posts.

Sodium on the other hand is reasonably aggressive and an active poster in this game which may be a little surprising if he were the Town Doc.

I'm almost always "reasonably aggressive and an active poster in the game". Being a doc means you're not supposed to be an active poster?

Furthermore, he made a bunch of questionable comments, bordering on being overeager. And Scum Sodium would benefit more from a switch to Zengar than Town Doc Sodium when he had been on KGH all day and the Zengar wagon was ahead anyways and likely to have been secured without his help.

How would ScumMe benefit from a switch to Zengar? If anything, it was a stupid move for me in every single possible role(minus Jester).

Sodium's explanation of voting Serp

I'm pretty sure you mean protect, not vote.

Waiting for Edible, Alice and Seniwac.

[Kilgamayan]

I believe that, were he scum staring in the face of the case and vote pile against him, he would be more likely to half-ass a defense, whereas a town doctor would recognize their value and fight tooth and nail to avoid a lynch.

Your logic is that scum won't want to defend themselves as much as a Doc would? EVERYONE should want to defend themselves equally because their death will harm their faction whatever they are (excusing Jesters but that's an exceedingly rare case). Saying that certain roles want to live more than others is somewhat paradoxical.

Think what you will - the empirical data I've gathered via my personal experience says scum are more likely to give up when hammered with a good case than town.

[Pesco]

I would have to say your empirical evidence lacks Alice samples.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Think what you will - the empirical data I've gathered via my personal experience says scum are more likely to give up when hammered with a good case than town.

And you think Sodium has given up? He's still responding to points now, isn't he?

[Kilgamayan]

I would have to say your empirical evidence lacks Alice samples.

That's because Alice is an outlier that knows how to play scum properly (which is a true art form that doesn't get nearly enough credit). Even then, he's not above stupid mistakes under pressure, but that's another discussion for another time.

I'm not saying scum will give up EVERY TIME, but the rate at which scum give up when smashed in the face with a good case and a bunch of votes is far higher than the rate of town giving up in the same situation.

And you think Sodium has given up? He's still responding to points now, isn't he?

He half-assed his defense of the original case and has since only been picking at what is easily picked at. His defense of the main charge of cheerleading amounted to "oops?" which does him no favors whatsoever. If Mafia allowed mulligans like that town would never win.

[Kiro]

I'm almost always "reasonably aggressive and an active poster in the game". Being a doc means you're not supposed to be an active poster?

The main point is not the "active" part, it's the "aggressive" part. Nothing is wrong with either, but you made questionable comments presumably because you were aggressive and it has hurt you.

How would ScumMe benefit from a switch to Zengar? If anything, it was a stupid move for me in every single possible role(minus Jester).

Well, Scum you knowing Zengar is also Scum just gets your name on the wagon. Admittedly, if it's a dumb move for any role you could have had, how would this make you more Townie than Scum rather than just being a null tell? The benefit arguably is Townie cred and if anything, I think Scum feel more inclined to earn it than actual Townies do because Scum knowingly plan mislynches and possibly feel more pressure to earn that credit. That's how I imagine it anyways.

Out to lunch.

[FinnKaenbyou]

He half-assed his defense of the original case and has since only been picking at what is easily picked at. His defense of the main charge of cheerleading amounted to "oops?" which does him no favors whatsoever. If Mafia allowed mulligans like that town would never win.

I'm not sure how he could defend himself in any way other than 'I admit I was tunneling on KGH, I apologise', so I'm not sure what you would define as half-assed here.