Himelander Mafia Thread (Over! Scum Win!)

[Kiro]

Regarding Serp's plan: It works in a sense, but with a fatal flaw. The goal seems to be to limit every single player to one victory at most. You could cycle through the players in some orderly fashion and if there are only 4 or less scum this game, it's easy sailing considering they need 5 wins. If there's 5 though, we actually run the risk of playing right into their hands. Say the first duel is a Townie vs a Townie. A Townie will die obviously. If you cycle through systematically from there, that means at some point, a Scum will challenge a Townie first and win. They won't care if they die the next day because if we keep doing that, the sole remaining Scum secures the victory before he can be killed. This would also assume that in some way, the Scum avoid challenging each other during the process.

I think an idea that poses the best chance for Town is to have it such that two separate people with 0 wins challenge each other for the first 8 Days. That will result in 8 deaths and 8 people with 1 victory. You can then estimate how many duels Scum might have won based on the number of people that have flipped Scum upon death. That leaves the remaining Scum amongst 8 people to secure more victories and that's where the scumhunting and bandwagon analysis will really start. The counter to this would be that it will probably give Scum some victories, but you feasibly can't prevent that anyways unless there was a foolproof way to impartially determine someone is Town and let him secure victories as mentioned by Rou.

That's my input on the game setup.

[Pesco]

I fail

fixed

[Bardiche]

It does look like a soft claim, to be sure, Pesco.

Either way, I agree with those people who prefer caution over headlong rushing into the heat of the battle. There are a number of strategies scum can employ to lead town astray.

However, attempting to reason as to scum's actions presents such a wide web of possibilities, narrowing it down to just a single one seems difficult if not foolish.

When given the option of staging the duels and regulating it, I can't find myself in agreement. That would be giving town an unnecessary handicap: after all, once that is over and done with, we must be more diligent in catching scum, because there is a good possibility they have already accrued some victories. The possibility of staging a scum vs scum duel seems slim at best.

No, I think it would be best everyone use their own judgment in issueing duel invitations. Always remember, though: if you're town, you always want to win your duels.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Am I just retarded or was there a plot reference in what Pesco said? I didn't get around to watching Mai-HIME. >_>

Anyway, Kiro's idea doesn't really seem any better than Serp's. Who decides the matchups, exactly? There's too much opportunity for scum to step in and rig the matches. Taking 8 days before we actually scumhunt is awkward, and there's every chance that by then scum could already have a good number of victories.

Why not just do something simpler? D1, we get a challenge as advertised and leave it to the public to decide. D2, the survivor of this challenge chooses someone else to lynch them. Either one of the two players is scum in which case we have info we can use to scumhunt, or we've killed off one Townie safely and one who is likely to be safe. Scum/Scum is obviously going to be avoided by the scumteam. In the case of a Town/Scum showdown, it's likely scum will win initially, but then we can examine the people who emerged on the pro-Scum wagon. We get information to work with for the cheapest possible price.

tl;dr For today, do whatever the hell you think is right. We can sit and analyse it later when some people are dead.

[Edible]

Vote Count: Minami Kuribayashi Edition

No one has challenged.  No one has voted.

You have approximately 14 hours to issue a challenge.

[Pesco]

First Post MindHax on Bardiche.

I'm challenging you to fight in 2 hours time.

[Bardiche]

Can't say I would particularly enjoy that, nor that I would find it a particularly wise course of action. Haphazardly challenging people before even all have spoken? Being too rash only leads down paths you might come to regret.

Rather than that, why not sit down, sip a cup of tea and await the others to speak, or at least the deadline to be closer? We can always stage a wonderful duel once we've heard all contenders in this battle of wits; you seem entirely too eager to be fighting others. I wonder where this excitement of yours comes from?

[Pesco]

First Blood is badass. Decision is pretty much set now.

[Bardiche]

I'm interested in seeing your strategy play out. I wonder if the scenario you presented earlier, "my special person" has anything to do with this? Making sure as many die as soon as possible seems like a surefire strategy to narrow down the playing field, after all.

But as it stands, I can make neither heads nor tails of your idea.

Roukanken's idea seems like it could work. I'm still not terribly thrilled by the idea of supplementing duels in a predetermined way, as once scum has seized hold of the decision process, they merely need secure victories.

Well, duels aren't resolved immediately, so even after Pesco issues the challenge I should have time to consider how I feel about any idea regulating the flow of the game... My kneejerk reaction is opposition, naturally.

[Carthrat]

Question: If I lose a fight, will my special person also die? What if they're in the game?

All powers/effects in this game come from roles or special daily events.

[Pesco]

I'm interested in seeing your strategy play out. I wonder if the scenario you presented earlier, "my special person" has anything to do with this? Making sure as many die as soon as possible seems like a surefire strategy to narrow down the playing field, after all.

That question was flavour based. I forced myself to watch the show till the end and I'm damn well going to make use of what I see.

Making there not enough townies left for scum to gain their quota is a sure win. Vigs would be pretty hot this game

So yeah. I think Bardiche is scum just because and even if he was town we've denied scum from scoring once.

[Bardiche]

 

If I were scum and you had gathered that from my single post, I would commend your brilliance.

As it stands I don't think that was your motive.

[Pesco]

Be learned

40 minutes until I issue the challenge.

[Bardiche]

Then you're about to prove yourself sorely wrong.

[UncertainJakutten]

Wellp, admittedly my first impulse is to challenge someone randomly just because it's something I'd do. My second impulse is to challenge Carthrat. But I'm pretty sure that would end in tears.

So, my third impulse, and the one I'm going to follow is to actually encourage Pesco to put his money where his mouth is and challenge Bard when he says he will.

No, I'm not bloodthirsty, not at all.

To be fair, I don't think Pesco has ever had to put his life on the line for First Post Mind Hax before, and it intrigues me to see if a process that tends to be right will be successful here as well.

Oh yeah, Rou once again gains my eye on him for doing the same thing he always does, I believe regardless of alignment. That felt a little too reactionary to the soft claim but it's overall hard to read, especially since it's Rou.

Also, something bothers me about Bard's reaction rereading it. He feels a little nervous. But that's also hard to read at this stage of the game...I still don't like it.

Cuts:

If I were scum and you had gathered that from my single post, I would commend your brilliance.

As it stands I don't think that was your motive.

He has a meta of doing this. The problem is it's absolutely worthless if he's scum for obvious reasons. So while I want to see this happen because I think it's amusing and your reaction leads me to believe it might be fruitful, I acknowledge that Pesco could be fooling us.

I will state one thing. I actually think making this go FASTER is pro town given MotK's general meta. It hadn't really occured to me before, but when we drag the day out to it's maximum limit, we tend to lynch someone who was playing badly rather than lynching scum. And while scum can play badly, we don't have a great track record.

I do believe I'm firmly behind this challenge, and am about ready to throw my own gauntlet down and say I'll challenge Pesco if he doesn't follow through on his promise to you, Bard. I doubt I'll have to.

[Bardiche]

Also, something bothers me about Bard's reaction rereading it. He feels a little nervous. But that's also hard to read at this stage of the game...I still don't like it.

Reaction to what? While we're still in "sip a cup of tea and see how things go" phase, it's best to iron out all the uncertainties you feel about the two "to be" challenged people, correct?

[Pesco]

Reaction to what? While we're still in "sip a cup of tea and see how things go" phase, it's best to iron out all the uncertainties you feel about the two "to be" challenged people, correct?

I spit in your tea!

 :V

[Bardiche]

I spit in your tea!

 :V

Why can't we be friends?

[EvilTom]

Fighting like this is useless, it's just what they want us to do. Do you really think we're achieving a goal? We're all just being used.

That said, I'd like to see a Nun beat the shit out of a cripple. So tasteful.

This speculation is pointless, I want to see VIOLENCE.

And it would be nice to see one of Bard and Pesco dead.

[UncertainJakutten]

Reaction to what? While we're still in "sip a cup of tea and see how things go" phase, it's best to iron out all the uncertainties you feel about the two "to be" challenged people, correct?

Not necessarily. And to be honest, it's just the feeling I got from your post. It felt like "Shit, he's right...but if I can get him to back off I can wait for someone to play badly"

Then again, you also probably aren't as aware of our punish the bad players meta, so that's not as strong. On the other hand, it's pretty easy to punish someone for playing badly D1 relatively universally.

[Pesco]

No trolling in my house please Tom.

 :V

[Bardiche]

Not necessarily. And to be honest, it's just the feeling I got from your post. It felt like "Shit, he's right...but if I can get him to back off I can wait for someone to play badly"

My thoughts are more along the lines of, "Oh darn, am I going to die spectacularly over my first post?" Add in some line of thought regarding "I thought I'd at least last longer than that".

Of course, come the duel I'd advise you to vote for me. After all, I'm town, so my victory will always be in town's best interest.

The only thing that leaves me nervous is Roukanken's meta-play on alleged scum actions, making statements as "scum would avoid scum vs scum" and "mafia are looking for ways to throw themselves into fights without looking suspicious".

By the way, where's that meido of mine? I require new tea, my old cup appears to have some mysterious spit that surely originated from some mysterious offender. It's quite distasteful.

[Pesco]

The only thing that leaves me nervous is Roukanken's meta-play on alleged scum actions, making statements as "scum would avoid scum vs scum" and "mafia are looking for ways to throw themselves into fights without looking suspicious".

I'd like to hear Rou's thoughts on Bard's posts.

[UncertainJakutten]

The only thing that leaves me nervous is Roukanken's meta-play on alleged scum actions, making statements as "scum would avoid scum vs scum" and "mafia are looking for ways to throw themselves into fights without looking suspicious".

Hmm? I think I missed this. I honestly glazed over his D1 Walls o' text...perhaps I should reread them today?

[Kilgamayan]

I can see where Pesco's coming from on calling out Bard's first post, it reminds me of his Day 1 play when he was scum with Ciato in that Laggy game a while ago. There's no real "mindhax" to be applied, logic dictates the post is quite reportery. I do give slight pause because I know Bard tends to play like this regardless of alignment but not a whole lot.

Couple of other things I don't like.

So yeah. I think Bardiche is scum just because and even if he was town we've denied scum from scoring once.

This sort of statement is stupid and obvious to the point of meaninglessness and I don't know why you'd say it if you were town. Kinda makes me want to vote against you, to be honest.

I will state one thing. I actually think making this go FASTER is pro town given MotK's general meta. It hadn't really occured to me before, but when we drag the day out to it's maximum limit, we tend to lynch someone who was playing badly rather than lynching scum. And while scum can play badly, we don't have a great track record.

Except the lynch mechanism for this game is vastly different from the normal lynch. A challenge issued 4 hours into the day is no different from a challenge issued 23 hours into the day, aside from the fact that the second one gives us 19 extra hours to plan.

Don't forget, it only takes one person to get a duel going. Anyone that's on before the challenge deadline could challenge anyone else and suddenly we'd have our 48 hour voting period just fine.

[Pesco]

1) I don't know Bard's meta. Just because I know where your games are at doesn't mean I read them. It's mindhax all the same.

2) You haven't Yuyuko Doll'd me yet this game. So of course you might as well vote to have me lose.

[UncertainJakutten]

Except the lynch mechanism for this game is vastly different from the normal lynch. A challenge issued 4 hours into the day is no different from a challenge issued 23 hours into the day, aside from the fact that the second one gives us 19 extra hours to plan.

Don't forget, it only takes one person to get a duel going. Anyone that's on before the challenge deadline could challenge anyone else and suddenly we'd have our 48 hour voting period just fine.

Except the lynch mechanic ALSO locks us into choosing between two players, and if the day drags on, knowing MotK, we'll force two bad players to challenge each other and get less information than we would otherwise.

4 hours MIGHT be a little excessively fast, I admit, but we don't need to wait 23 hours either.

Granted, these short days MIGHT mitigate the "you sucked, go challenge the other player who sucked. Now."

[Bardiche]

words

Sirrah, might I point out I clearly stated where I stood on the described events? Regulating the duels just does not sit with me as a bright idea, given the abyssmal chance of success and the complications I suspect it will bring along.

UncertainKitten: By that logic, which takes MotK experience into account, can you not agree that my suggestion to draw out the day sits more from a different mindset when playing moreso than my hope to pin the day's duel on another?

Where I come from, we customarily do not jump into the heat of things barely fifteen posts into the game. Customary caution should not equal "kill immediately".

[Pesco]

Time up.

##Challenge Bardiche

Nun vs cripple! FUCK YEAH!!!

[UncertainJakutten]

Heh, I play on MS. I know a lot about not jumping into the heat of things so fast.

I want to try something different. The thing is, the way you phrased it just pings something in my gut that you want to take time to get the attention off yourself. It's not the fact you advocate caution, it's just...something feels really off about how you said it and I can't put my finger on it.

And...there goes Pesco.