Then I'm confused again. You're voting for Suwako. If you think that he handled D2 in a way a townie would then why is he scummy now? You knew Anthony and Angel Milk were town by the time the night started, so you already knew that the last two people on the Suwako wagon were town and the things you pointed out about Suwako in your initial post already existed prior to D3. What made Zakeri so much worse that you needed his flip before declaring Suwako Scum In Front Of Me?
At the time, I vigged Zakeri because I was getting some doubts about my dual-scumwagon theory. If that theory was wrong, then there were probably at least two scum on the Suwako wagon aside from VgameT. The accusations between Affinity and Rou didn't look like a scum gambit, so one of them had to be town, which meant that Zakeri would be the other scum.
Furthermore, keep in mind that for the whole day, pretty much everyone was saying "Suwako is confirmed town, Serp's case is so bad that he ought to be lynch material right behind Anthony and/or Tenshi." I may like to consider myself more of a maverick than the average mafia player, but you'd be hard-pressed to find someone willing to use his vig on a player who's being so universally defended. I just doubted my own judgement and didn't want to act unilaterally.
Kind of want Serp's updated opinion on who he thinks a Scum Suwako's buddies would be now that most people have caught up to the events now.
This is kind of a tall order, since my very first point on Suwako was that his playstyle made it impossible to reliably connect him to any other flipped scum, but we can connect other players' actions to him. I'm not going to do a full reread now, but the one that stands out to me at the moment is Kitten4u. For one thing, I disagree with her analysis on what a Suwako scum flip implies about other players' alignments.
I doubt that scum would've planned to run two scumwagons side-by-side from the outset. Most likely, the wagon on VgameT started without their influence, then the wagon on Suwako started without their influence, and the other two buddies piled onto VgameT to gain towncred for swinging the wagon. I believe that those
late on the VgameT wagon look worst in light of a Suwako scumflip, and Kitten4u claiming otherwise could be an attempt to cover herself and her remaining buddy.
Furthermore, Kitten4u is lining up these lynches in preparation for a Suwako scumflip while claiming that she expects Suwako to flip town. That's a contradiction in her thought process which looks scummy to me. Also, I may be treading into OMGUS here, but I don't like the way she's trying to line up me, specifically, after a Suwako scumflip. I think that a Suwako scumflip should at least make me less-than-scummiest, and furthermore, if Suwako flips scum, then we won't be in LyLo tomorrow, and the town might as well let me live to see N4 and use my ability again, if scum gives it a chance to do so.
That's just my D3 analysis. I suppose that since Nietz is also late on the VgameT wagon, I should keep in mind the somewhat crackpot theory that he's a scum tracker. It seems odd for scum to have a tracker in a game where we haven't seen any evidence for even a second role for scum to find with such a role, but I suppose it could just be a small balance adjustment over giving scum a vanilla goon.
As for Suwako's actions themselves as they relate to possible scumbuddies, with all the light suspicion he has out there it's hard to discern between a token bus, an attempted mislynch seed, and a throwaway case, but I do note that scum tend to like to declare a townie and a buddie "equivalent" to muddy the waters after their flip. The suspected pairs he's most recently put forward could be seen as that.
Anyway, note that I'm probably not going to be online again by the deadline.
