So, my emphasis on the reread was: is KGH scummy enough to be lynched despite the fact Scum Sodium would thus have been trying to bus him since early Day 1. And to a lesser extent, another review of whether anyone else showing signs of bussing Zengar or Sodium or pushing any of the currently known Townies to mislynch in a bad way.
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Sodium #90, questions why KGH would roleclaim but votes UK for "ignoring it." UK asks Sodium whether he finds KGH less scummy than UK and Sodium in #96 says he'd "put them equal, but voted UK because KGH has votes on him already." In the very beginning of the game, this is the most likely time where scum may choose to avoid putting pressure on one of their own so I do think it stands out now.
After KGH says he intended to end RVS intentionally with the roleclaim, UK, Suwako (confirmed Town), K4U (confirmed Town) and Sodium (confirmed Scum) all vote for him. Man... that makes this interesting, but at this point, Sodium could have gone into bus mode. Also in #144, he mentions Zengar who waffled on KGH and didn't provide anything else about KGH except perhaps wondering why KGH didn't bother to talk about much else (#123). Sodium in #150 is going to give Zengar a little bit of newbie leniency, but is not going to extend that to KGH. In other words, Sodium is pretty much avoiding Zengar and going head on against KGH. Interesting dynamic if all 3 are Scum and a somewhat reasonable survival strategy for Sodium at that point. He might have gotten foiled because the Zengar wagon gained momentum and with his late switch (which I have now determined as bad judgement more than trying to gain Town cred), his actions contradicted themselves setting him up for the fall in Day 2. Sodium also kinda starts pushing Edible midway through the Day and KGH does as well so there's a possible link of trying to get a mislynch going although it's pretty weak and clumsy. The obvious and somewhat simpler counter to this is that KGH is a Townie set to be mislynched.
Another interesting thing is that KGH and Sodium start attacking each other reasonably early. For instance, KGH brings up a decent point in #200 about Sodium's vote on him. At this point, I don't think it changes for the rest of the game. Yet KGH is kinda clinging to an early case on UK and decides to eventually prod pursue Edible over either Sodium or Zengar and had plenty of chances to vote either of them. I am amused though that despite his voting UK and conversation with her, KGH's #206 gives UK the impetus to eventually switch to Zengar. Could be scumbuddies playing off each other, but that would require 4 Scum. I also think K4U summed it up in a funny way in #284:
*headdesk* Your questions on UK were basically the only pro-town thing I think you've done all game and you don't even think she's scum? Gah.
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In regards to UK: She's all against KGH early before going Zengar. If UK was solo Scum, she eventually would have chosen to forgo a mislynch on KGH to bussing Zengar when either could have been lynched. Pretty gutsy there if so. But from Town UK's point of view, she does gloss over Zengar's waffling for most of early Day 1 so it fits to some extent that she didn't consider him a top priority until she did her midday rereads and almost immediately voted Zengar. In her #188 before her rereads, she has KGH as scummy, Zengar as waffles, and doesn't mention Sodium (is a little surprised at my point on Sodium when she rereads me). Looks mostly like her focus at the time, but that's fair due to the eventual Zengar vote.
Zengar in #210 says "Hen is cleaner now." Interesting.
Edible: Any further opinion on whether UK is Scum by gut as you mentioned in #223. Should get your opinions in before you most likely eat it today.
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Conclusion: Reading KGH through the confirmed Scum does show possibilities he was bussed by Sodium and ignored by Zengar as an overall Scum strategy. As for KGH himself, he is way too hard to read because any votes he has made have been useless or in strict self-defense (Sodium in Day 2). No cases still. I'm ok to his being lynched today and he definitely would be too risky to leave alive during LYLO. The onus is on him to present a more compelling case on someone else because he has not done that once this game which is terrible, especially because he could be Scum himself. Furthermore, a lot of Pesco's and Kilga's actions (see below) make more sense if KGH is actually scum.
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If it seriously comes down to Rou/Pesco/Kilga/UK, it's gonna be a gut vote. Amusingly enough, let's assume we're in LYLO tomorrow with 4 of us alive. Pesco/Kilga/UK will be alive, either Rou or I will likely have been killed. Rou though, will get one shot off and we lynch one. That leaves 2 alive at the end of the Day and the game will end one way or another. Which means Scum would win if the one or two that die are both Town. Rou pretty much has to pick between Pesco/Kilga/UK/Kiro tonight and I wonder if he should publicize who it is before today ends so that Town knows who not to lynch tomorrow and let the shot off them. I am obviously partial to myself not being shot, but I think there is good outside evidence and some voting history that justifies me not being shot. I really do think UK is most Townie at this juncture in a 3 Scum setup, but all bets are off if we see Scum die and the game doesn't end.
So either Pesco or Kilga gets shot and the other is lynched Day 5. If KGH flips Town, then Pesco made the most blatant effort to get him mislynched in Day 2 when I switched to KGH and Pesco followed me and stayed on him. The reason kinda sucks too. Problem is that it's so blatantly bad that I can't see ScumPesco using it as a long term survival plan, especially when he was coasting along and got on Sodium early in Day 2. Kilga for what it's worth though, did the same thing on both days, but his reasons were better in both scenarios than Pesco's one time in Day 2. Also looks bad if KGH flips Town. It's more subtle in Kilga's case and subtlety is how Kilga would play as Scum making him far more dangerous. In this worst case scenario, head says Pesco, heart says Kilga. Tough call, but I still would choose Kilga because his action "fits" more with Scum making it to the endgame alive.
The whole worry though is that if the last Scum is bulletproof (no sign of a roleblocker on Serp or Rou or a Cop/Godmother in this setup) and we only shoot one and ignore lynching him/her in LYLO, we shot ourselves in the foot literally. So I don't think we can use the vig as a crutch. What I suggest as an alternative to the above, is to have Rou shoot who he thinks is most likely to be Scum AND we try to lynch who is most likely to be Scum on Day 5. If we overkill on one person, so be it, that means he/she was looked over twice and we can't fault our using the vig role as a reason Town loses if we fail. Now that I say it like this, should we not have Rou publicize who he hits so we don't color our cases the following day? Opinions?
On a random note as well, if we don't see Edible die today though, best explanation is either Edible is bulletproof and/or Rou is lying and is most likely a one-shot Vig (Delayed Night or End of Same Day). Definitely lean Edible for a lynch (Edible would be more likely Scum since a Town Doc and Town Bulletproof is not reasonable, than Rou who would either be a one-shot Scum Vig or a fluky SK) in such a case though and we'd not be in LYLO anyways (5 alive for Day 5). So if Edible doesn't die today, Rou
shouldn't shoot anyone because if we're incorrect about the Edible lynch tomorrow, we don't automatically lose with 2 deaths and an NK tomorrow (better safe than sorry).
I'm set to vote KGH after we get more opinions in or if KGH can convince me to vote someone else, then I might do that. I seriously type way too fucking much and I don't even want to look at my own shit when I reread so I don't know how you guys can stand to do it.
