Author Topic: A Balanced Game of Mafia (Over; town wins) (Read 68311 times)

Bardiche · « **Reply #780 on:** April 30, 2011, 10:12:29 PM »

Well Omba, guess you gotta protect me or yourself tonight! (if that last option's impossible, don't tell us anyway)

So how about you three make up marvelous reasons why I shouldn't lynch you today and why person x is a better choice? :lazy:

ActionDan · « **Reply #781 on:** April 30, 2011, 10:15:53 PM »

I guess it can be a blessing when someone has very few posts. Polaris is not so difficult to analyze. I read his D1 and D2, and there is a word I can use to describe all his posts: Gutless. I think Polaris' first post against me was weak as it was unoriginal. I'd descible the other posts that followed that gave opinions as general laundry lists. Polaris' posts is the very definition of "half-assed cases" that zak mentioned D2. Polaris' D2 case against Hourai is barely 4 lines long, focuses on minor issues that border on whatever Bard likes to call "Dormio = Scum, so Hourai doing this and that makes sense if Hourai is Scum." Hourai's case on Polaris D2 relies on this too, but, HH's case presented much stronger ties between Polaris and Dormio.

I don't like Polaris' exchange with Sect D2. It was a mutual "I don't like you, and you don't like me, but let's go after the other people and give each other a break." For Sect, that meant "I'll keep a vote on Dan." For Polaris, that meant "I'll attack the easy target Hourai."
gotta go! be back

ActionDan · « **Reply #782 on:** April 30, 2011, 10:48:38 PM »

Bard, ~~I'm confirmed town~~, ~~super cool~~, ~~have a Governor claim and can edit flavor (it's even crumbed everywhere!)~~, I was the counter-wagon (and the wagon proper before Dormio's wagon kicked off) D1 and logically that beats out most everything else. It doesn't end there either. I can even do a barrel roll to dodge flying bullets. If shadoweh is indeed Scum I shall fight the good fight D6, but I have infinitely more reason to lynch Polaris right now.

His one saving grace was his vote change to Dormio when he didn't have to. Unfortunately the cred that was earned can bring him no further. Why? because I'm finding it more believable that it was bad Scum play. I don't really like K4U's posts either D5, but I can't place a reason on it just yet. Obviously Polaris sunk himself long before.

Kitten4u · « **Reply #783 on:** April 30, 2011, 10:50:31 PM »

What was wrong with my posts?

Shadoweh · « **Reply #784 on:** April 30, 2011, 10:57:57 PM »

You could at least pretend to put some effort into it Bard ;-; Stop teaching the children lazy confirmed townie habits! I'll update my case on Polaris4u and how Dan compares after some sleep. Hourai was just an easy target for them to concentrate on, both early and later game. Dan's cases on Hourai seem more motivated by earnest trying then Polaris's disappearing act. I've already done my own analysis of Polaris's posts, that you can go find yourself

And if you have any questions about my own play you are free to ask and I will try to answer to the best of my ability, if you didn't get enough yesterday.

Kitten4u · « **Reply #785 on:** April 30, 2011, 11:11:48 PM »

I can't deny that Polaris was incredibly lazy. There's a reason I'm playing right now instead of him. :V Considering he was lazy enough that Edible replaced him I don't think his laziness makes him scum (though I'm pretty biased here). I think it's just a personality trait like my laziness/lurkiness or UK's aggressiveness.

Bardiche · « **Reply #786 on:** April 30, 2011, 11:33:35 PM »

You know, "I was the counter-case to confirmed scum on D1!" isn't as strong an argument as you'd like it to be, Dan, and the more you purport it to be so the more I feel inclined to suspect a scum gambit setup.

Omba · « **Reply #787 on:** May 01, 2011, 12:19:11 AM »

Dan has been burning his town-status ever since he got it and even before.
I'll probably be away for approximately 24 hours. If you guys do anything besides not lynching or triple-lynching until I'm back, I'm going to rage hard. :V

Bardiche · « **Reply #788 on:** May 01, 2011, 12:21:05 AM »

Want to lynch him just to be sure?

Omba · « **Reply #789 on:** May 01, 2011, 12:25:51 AM »

Why yes, I'd like to quarter him to make sure.
If that didn't mean I'd have to forgoe lynching Kitten4u and/or Shadoweh. Though I'm still not sure whether it's better to go with the reasonable choices (those two) or the totally lunatic one (Dan).
The amount of gambit involved if Dan really is scum is just so damn huge.

Bardiche · « **Reply #790 on:** May 01, 2011, 12:28:46 AM »

Well to be fair, he has done everything he can to ensure it'll look like a scum gambit moreso than a townie blundering into town status. I've never quite seen someone try so hard to look like scum as a vanilla townie.

Omba · « **Reply #791 on:** May 01, 2011, 12:33:21 AM »

Yes. That's exactly the giant wall of WIFOM that's confusing me.

ActionDan · « **Reply #792 on:** May 01, 2011, 02:29:47 AM »

Let's do this objectively, because another brilliant idea just flashed through my brain.
Let us all measure up town cred (objectively):

Quote

You know, "I was the counter-case to confirmed scum on D1!" isn't as strong an argument as you'd like it to be, Dan, and the more you purport it to be so the more I feel inclined to suspect a scum gambit setup.

Let's also ignore gambits as non-existant for establishing town cred (-_-).
town cred:
Dan: A lot
shadoweh: A lot
Polaris: not so much

Let's work from that, and call Dan and shadoweh town cred equal (although I think I have more, but that shouldn't affect this much)
Let's also assume that one of us is scum. As scum need two mislynches anyway, what is of relative importance is the order in which the mislynches occur. I'd wager that scum would rather get the person with substantial town cred first and then face an easier opponent head-on later. But what have me and shadoweh been doing the last 2 days? holding hands, and not casting much doubt on each other at all (unless forced to). There are no signs of scum intent to attack the other. Now let's look at the flip side. That is, what would Scum and Town K4U do in this situation. Town K4U would take hard looks at both of us, knowing one of us is scum. AND town Polaris would make good cases on both of us, preserving his opinion in case of death. What town K4U would not and should not do, is go ahead and say "I can't see shadoweh as scum, here are my reasons, therefore it must be Dan," that is simply not a town instinct. Scum K4U would do this, in what I will call "divide and conquer," attack one of us, pray for survival, and then attack the other after. It wouldn't matter that K4U said "Shadoweh can't be scum," because if K4U makes it alive to the next day, K4U will have to attack Shadoweh and claim the duty as a townie. Obviously I'm not saying that Scum K4U will survive this, but it's Scum K4U's best bet.

With this I am placing my vote.
##Vote Kitten4u

ActionDan · « **Reply #793 on:** May 01, 2011, 02:35:20 AM »

EBWOP: considering this is pretty much an arguement concerning D4 + D5 behavior, that last "Polaris" should read "K4U".

Kitten4u · « **Reply #794 on:** May 01, 2011, 02:36:44 AM »

So your problem with my posts is that I declare someone I think is town as town?

Shadoweh · « **Reply #795 on:** May 01, 2011, 03:01:24 AM »

I honestly don't know what Scum K4U would do as her meta, since she'd be fakeclaiming right now. I don't believe in using meta as a certainty anyways. To be fair I don't think it's out of town's interests to make their opinions known on who they believe is scum, it's the only thing that can outlast their death. I have to agree that a Scum Dan should have at least been considering me seriously when Kiro brought up the possibility instead of calling for more hammers. His play is weird but in the end Polaris's play was more explainable then scum, whereas Dan would have had to have been in a freak accident.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #796 on:** May 01, 2011, 03:02:20 AM »

EBWOM: *as scum, not then scum

Kitten4u · « **Reply #797 on:** May 01, 2011, 03:12:10 AM »

I can tell you that I wouldn't have done that. I know better than to assume that you would be on my side just because I called you town (Dan would have been a much better choice based on his interactions with UK). My typical strategy would be (since I can't hide behind a fake claim) cast suspicion on EVERYONE because I need them all lynched. If I only needed two people lynched, then sure, there's no harm in declaring someone town like that, but that's not the case here.

Naturally, this is all WIFOMy nonsense. Unfortunately, it's hard to defend against being wrong and bad luck, so it's all I can do. I'll be sure to get those cases up before the day ends though, so don't hammer me please. <3

Shadoweh · « **Reply #798 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:31:20 AM »

Quote

Let's also assume that one of us is scum. As scum need two mislynches anyway, what is of relative importance is the order in which the mislynches occur. I'd wager that scum would rather get the person with substantial town cred first and then face an easier opponent head-on later.

Dan, can you explain this line of thinking from the perspective of Kitten4u being scum? We both have 'substantial town cred' as you said. I'll also point out that she doesn't really need to convince us. The other two confirmed towns and herself have enough votes to lynch either of us right now.

Kitten4u · « **Reply #799 on:** May 01, 2011, 07:04:23 AM »

Alright, I'm going to start with Polaris. I can't dissect his thoughts perfectly because I'm not him, but hopefully this will help all of you see where he was coming from.

First thing to remember is that I was NOT helping with his posts. I was not helping him build any cases (though I did offer to help him build a case D1 in which he opted to be lazy instead of actually taking me up on that), the only thing I did was ask a couple of questions on things that I was not clear on. We talked about people some. I never spoke about someone until he provided an opinion on said person. This was about him learning to play Mafia, not me playing for him, so I did little more than try to point him in the right direction. This means that newb cases, improper use of terms and all that fun newbie stuff is to be expected. When reading his posts keep this in mind: is he someone trying to force a case on someone, or is he a confused newbie with ideas, but not sure how to express them properly?

Second, Polly is definitely lazy. Probably lazier than I am, and that's really saying something. :V I remember after I offered to help him build a case on Dan D1 he said something along the lines of "I could have spent the day making a case on Dan, but I decided to be lazy and waste it instead." Later he said that he wanted to read HW but never did because he was boring. There were a couple of moments I really wanted to smack him. >x> So yeah, there's a reason I'm playing and it's not because he requested a replacement. I think Edible just got sick of dealing with him because he stuck me in almost immediately after I offered. :V

I think I summed up what I think his opinions on Dormio and Sect pretty well in those posts. There wasn't much for me to go off of. Again, it's pretty hard for me to defend against being wrong and bad luck. I hope how I see his mentality clears things up a bit.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #800 on:** May 01, 2011, 04:59:43 PM »

Zzzz Or you can all be silent for hours and not say anything. Bard, what's going through that crazy mind of yours? Dan, wake up and chat with me, the people need to see our thoughts. I guess Omba won't be back for a few hours still.

ActionDan · « **Reply #801 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:33:13 PM »

Quote from: Shadoweh on May 01, 2011, 04:59:43 PM

Zzzz Or you can all be silent for hours and not say anything. Bard, what's going through that crazy mind of yours? Dan, wake up and chat with me, the people need to see our thoughts. I guess Omba won't be back for a few hours still.

That's mildly amusing, grown used to my chatter heh?

Srrz I was in the middle of a paper that could make or break the next few years of my life. Anyway that fact that only us three are posting is a major turnoff.

Quote from: Shadoweh on May 01, 2011, 06:31:20 AM

Dan, can you explain this line of thinking from the perspective of Kitten4u being scum? We both have 'substantial town cred' as you said. I'll also point out that she doesn't really need to convince us. The other two confirmed towns and herself have enough votes to lynch either of us right now.

That part was only intended if you or I were scum. Again, if K4U is scum she would just pick on one us,since we have equal town cred, and largely ignore the other and try to survive. After she would go attack the one she ignored the next day. Yes I don't put much stake in this meta, but it's worth something at least. I judge Polaris much more harshly of course. the arguement is mainly my justification of the feeling that the last 2 days haven't changed the picture from after D2.

K4U: It's true polaris was lazy, and you may not share his opinions, but I think it would be better to embrace his play D1 and D2 as if it were your own. You tend more than not to dismiss them (at least that's the feeling I get). Plus no one can be sure that there wasn't a little more in the QT than you let on. Lettme read Polaris' first post again, he commented on it.

Bardiche · « **Reply #802 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:41:38 PM »

Quote from: Shadoweh on May 01, 2011, 04:59:43 PM

Zzzz Or you can all be silent for hours and not say anything. Bard, what's going through that crazy mind of yours?

Right now? Zzzzz game. Zzzzz game.

I want to lynch each and every single one of you. That's what's going through my mind. Polaris was quite agreeable but I admit I haven't really looked at his posts from any perspective other than "hatin' on Dan, AWRIGHT".

How many lynches do we have, again?

Edible · « **Reply #803 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:47:56 PM »

Vote Countess, Wife Of Vote Count

Kitten4U (2) - Shadoweh, ActionDan
ActionDan (1) - Kitten4U

Not voting: Omba, Bardiche

Less than 48 hours remain. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Kitten4u · « **Reply #804 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:51:07 PM »

We have two more lynches.

---

Dan, I am in no way dismissing Polaris' play and I have no idea what gave you the idea that it was. Naturally, in order to defend myself I MUST defend Polaris because we are the same entity. I see no reason to just roll over and die like Hourai did. I know what it looks like. I also know I am town. I can't defend against the actions, so I'm trying to show the mentality behind the actions. It's all I can do.

Quote from: Dan

Again, if K4U is scum she would just pick on one us

This is flat out false. I'll pretend like there's any sense in declaring someone town when I would have to get everyone lynched for a moment for the sake of argument. Why the hell would I buddy up with SHADOWEH, who I KNOW would not be swayed by it over YOU who seemed content to not only call people that called you town, town, but to defend them as well? Town cred is meaningless to scum when they need every non-confirmed townie to get lynched. It's only about who they can get lynched and who they can't and who they can manipulate into helping them.

But I've already explained why assuming scum!me defending someone doesn't make any sense. I would need to cast enough suspicion on EVERYONE to convince the confirmed townies to lynch them over me. Put simply, you, Hourai and Shadoweh to scum!me would be nothing more than fodder I needed to die. Only the confirmed townies would matter.

To town!me however, I realize two things: 1.) as long as I don't get lynched town can't lose. 2.) the chances of me getting lynched are high, therefore I must make it so my town read does not get lynched. I must convince everyone else that Shadoweh MUST NOT DIE because I do not expect to live.

Kitten4u · « **Reply #805 on:** May 01, 2011, 06:52:25 PM »

Still WIFOM, yes, but trying to argue that line is silly and makes no sense.

Shadoweh · « **Reply #806 on:** May 01, 2011, 07:27:48 PM »

Quote from: Bardiche on May 01, 2011, 06:41:38 PM

I want to lynch each and every single one of you. That's what's going through my mind. Polaris was quite agreeable but I admit I haven't really looked at his posts from any perspective other than "hatin' on Dan, AWRIGHT".

That's probably a bad criteria to judge from Bard, unless you think Dan is the scum. Which is a possibility we have to take seriously at this point, but if you aren't really reading anyone you aren't being any help at all in making the judgement. Don't go all Zzzz game on me, we have a responsibility to all the townies that have come before to take this seriously and make the right decisions in the end.

Quote

How many lynches do we have, again?

If you mean today, one. In theory that's all we need, but if there's a tomorrow it will be LYLO.

Quote from: ActionDan on May 01, 2011, 06:33:13 PM

Anyway that fact that only us three are posting is a major turnoff.

Well, we're the three suspects, there's not much the others can do besides judge us. Can you explain what basis or example you're judging K4u's meta on and why you think she would want you gone before me?

K4U: The problem with your reasoning for Polaris's actions is his laziness to the point of being replaced actually is a scumtell for him. The cases you write yourself are more useful, since they come directly from you with no garbled lazy translator.

ActionDan · « **Reply #807 on:** May 01, 2011, 07:34:38 PM »

Quote

To town!me however, I realize two things: 1.) as long as I don't get lynched town can't lose. 2.) the chances of me getting lynched are high, therefore I must make it so my town read does not get lynched. I must convince everyone else that Shadoweh MUST NOT DIE because I do not expect to live.

Alright So point 1) I understand, and I too am trying to follow this. 2) This I don't get. It's fine to say who you think is the last scum before you go, but town!K4U should at least make counter points on the person who you do think is town. Otherwise you are giving that person a free pass after you flip town. Why? because if shadoweh is in fact Scum you have done little to catch her, in fact you can even say you helped expedite her victory.
Also, we can do another thought experiment. Say you got your way, and I die. If I'm scum you can say, "told you so!" If I'm town, what are you going to do, curl up in ball and die submissively because Shadoweh can't possibly be scum? That would go against 1.) The only reason me and shadoweh are holding hands and targetting you is that we have much more reason to do so than attack the other (based off of town cred). you on the other hand, should be doing your best to dig up every last bit of dirt on the both of me and shadoweh so your reasoning can see the light of day. That way, even if you are wrong about your scum pick today, you can fight well against the other guy you nailed as town the next day.

Also there is not as much WIFOM here as perhaps you perceive. cut

Kitten4u · « **Reply #808 on:** May 01, 2011, 07:46:50 PM »

@Shadoweh
Not really. He's lurkier than I am in general (see MSR Steven Stone and Vanilla Mafia). Considering Edible's stance on not wanting to deal with lurkers I don't think it's too surprising that he replaced him even though he didn't actually flake. It's a personality trait, not a tell. Don't worry, I'll get my cases up later. Promise! <3

@Dan
It's not complicated. Shadoweh is not scum. I must convince others that this is true in the event I get lynched today because if I lose because people decided to lynch the obvious town I'm going to be kind of pissed. I hate losing, especially when I lose in a stupid way.

Yes, if we do lynch you and you flip town I will have palmface for being shitty at this game and then try to get Shadoweh lynched. But considering Shadoweh is town this is a non-issue for me. I have no doubt that you will flip scum at this point.

Also, why should I try to dig up dirt? Shadoweh is town. There is no reason for me to try and dig dirt up on her. I want her to look town so that you will get lynched over her in the event that I am lynched. Trying to make her look like scum would be counter-productive and silly.

ActionDan · « **Reply #809 on:** May 01, 2011, 07:51:09 PM »

Quote

Well, we're the three suspects, there's not much the others can do besides judge us. Can you explain what basis or example you're judging K4u's meta on and why you think she would want you gone before me?

I still want feedback -_-. I'm judging K4U on what I would do in her position as town!K4u. Since I don't see town motivated actions, I am rationalizing what I do see as scum motivated actions, and I think they make sense. Why K4u would want me gone before you I am unsure of, however, perhaps it is easier to make a case on me for subjective reasons (because objectively I think it is the opposite).

cut by K4u... ..... ... ..... ... .... ... .... I'll wait for the cases because I am distracted by the ironic red coloring.