Touhou Remix: Game Over Man, Game Over!

[WHMZakeri]

I still think it's very unlikely that Serp is Scum together with Sodium due to his solid stance on Jan-san from later day one to middle of day two. I agree that both Alice and I look scummy from the standpoint. The most likely Answer is that Alice really is a godmother, which really wouldn't be that much of a stretch.

Here's the part where I would generally say something cliche like "It's time for the Finale~"

Good music choice

##Kill: Alice

[Suwako Moriya]

Well then. That makes me, uh, less suspect of Zakeri.

Waiting for the flip.

[Pesco]

Can't do it any other way on my phone.

Alice is Golden City Factory, Vanilla Townie

Vote count reset.
Story at 11

The loud sound of guitar feedback cracks through the air. Oh! it looks like someone is about to perform! Even ZUN calms down a little bit as we watch the show!

Entranced by the music, we hardly notice it when a body drops at around 4:19. When the song finally ends, we go back to our business...

and notice there are only five of you...

Me: Um...maybe I should go look for someone?

So, I do so. And I come upon a certain rabbit hunched over someone.

Me: Hey Tewi! Whatcha got there?

Tewi: Oh, someone died! Pretty cool huh? Wanna look?

Me: Sounds good! Who was it?

Tewi: Um...looks like Alice

Me: Alice Margatroid!?

Tewi: Um...kinda. I think he looks more like Golden City Factory than that puppeteer lady.

Me: Oh, ok. Well, I'll read the soul then...

...

Me: Yep, Golden City Factory. Well, looks like THEY didn't steal the music. So, I guess we better get back to the group

Tewi: Yep!

[Suwako Moriya]

##Vote: Serpentarius

I can't see anything else being possible right now.

[Kiro]

Nobody else vote yet. I need to check something and I want to get my word in.

[UncertainJakutten]

The Ninteenth "Key Change" Vote Count

Eternal Nocturne
 
Affinity (0)
Suwako Moriya (0)
Kiro (0)
Zakeri (0)
Serpentarius (1): Suwako Moriya,

Not Voting (5):  Serpentarius,  Kiro, Affinity, Zakeri

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in 56 hours at 9:00 PM EST on Friday, August 21st.

[Kiro]

Serp: Roundabout roleclaim is meh. Your theory on my sanity is huh? But I have something I should clarify with you. I have mod confirmation that my only possible sanities are Sane and Insane. There's none of this Naive-with-one-exception BS to spout. With Alice's flip, I am confirmed Sane unless anyone else wants to come out and say they hit Alice with a Frame on Night 2. That also means you're Guilty unless the same supposed Framer then hit you on Night 3. And we're not going to pass this up on some chance you're a Survivor who flips guilty via game mechanics. You say you stole the score and I have a Guilty result on you; Town cannot let you go.

---

I do intend to vote Serpentarius, but before I do, I think Affinity and Suwako should roleclaim. Something is off in regards to a possible scumbuddy now that Zakeri has shown he's a Vig and vigged the best target Town could have hoped for. We have an NK that didn't go through and we have forced post restrictions (nukes and TvTropes). Here's what we have so far for claims:

Kiro - Cop (looks to be Sane), *hit by TvTropes post restriction*
Serpentarius - Survivor with Mason chat with Kerigis and Roukan?
Zakeri - Vigilante
Affinity - Unknown. *hit by nuke post restriction*
Suwako - Unknown. *claims to have been an NK target, no one died Night 2*

In other words, who the hell is giving out post restrictions? It's not me, and it can't be Zakeri. It could be Serp, Suwako, or Affinity could have imposed it on himself (what for? I don't know). And how did someone not die on Night 2? It can't be due to me, Serp, or Zakeri. Scum must kill per my question earlier in the game, therefore it rules out that possibility. So either Affinity or Suwako are involved in this not dying business.

As you will notice, I intentionally did not put in a Tropes in #334. A bit about my post restriction. I am told by the mod that if I fail to get it in, I get 2 warnings with the 3rd offense resulting in my being banned from Comiket FOREVAR. What I'd like to check is if such warnings are made public or not by the mod. Because Affinity missed a Nuke for his Day 4 restriction. One explanation is that it expires after one Day, but that just doesn't seem to be as fun for the mods or in the spirit of a role madness game.

My sudden very dark suspicion is that Affinity is Scum, and is faking the post restriction and is trying to breeze under the radar to a Scum win by bussing both Sodium and Serp. Actions speak louder than words. Zakeri is a vigilante so there's no way he's also giving out post restrictions. No one died on Night 2 and Suwako claims he didn't get hit. Suwako's roleclaim is pretty key to determining how this happened. Affinity could have the post restriction, but there seems to be no effect to it or a roleblock type effect because I wouldn't have gotten a result on Night 3. In other words, it doesn't seem to hurt him ability wise. I was too quick to clear him on the idea that a Scum Affinity wouldn't bus all of his partners. Given we are in a LYLO situation most likely, he could.

---

Roukanken wanted to prod Affinity first, and you all saw how that turned out. :V

orly??? Serp, any other comments about Affinity?

As for Zakeri, his comment leading up to the Vig is kinda weird and I'd like him to explain that more. I should point out that a Town or Scum Vig would probably have hit Alice either way since the Scum vig also knows Alice would be Town.

Depending on the roleclaims and responses, I am about ready to place Affinity above Zakeri as the last Scum. I do need to do a reread from scratch later and double check everyone left though (including Suwako in context of his roleclaim), but that's where my suspicions have shifted at the moment.

Suwako, I'm requesting you unvote Serpentarius for now. I won't hold it against you if you do and will consider that in spirit, you intended to vote Serpentarius for lynch today. I just feel like this suddenly is going to take more time to figure out and I don't want any incidents of scum quickhammering themselves at any opportunity.


I really don't recall this question. Because scum CAN choose no kill. They just have to actively choose it. If you can link to where I've said otherwise, I'd appreciate it

EDIT:Oh, you mean THIS:

Um...I think it's pretty self evident that ANY night action will be randomized. If it's done at night, and I get no direction, well, quite obviously it will be randomized

Um, you should have read that closer. I said if there was no direction. No kill is a direction. Sorry that wasn't clear but it didn't occur to me it might not be

[Suwako Moriya]

Fair enough. ##Unvote: Serpentarius

I am DJ Technetium, Townie TranceEndent. My music is so annoying that anyone who gets near me hears it and goes away out of irritation. Thus, I am Night-Action Immune - things that target me get to me and simply die before they work, regardless of benevolent or malevolent intent. This includes NKs, as Night 2 demonstrated.

It also presumably applies to the post restriction silliness floating around, which may offer a possible explanation as to why it didn't surface until Day 3. I don't know that for sure, though - if I was targeted for a post restriction I wasn't told.

[WHMZakeri]

I'm with Suwako on voting Serp now, since it was either/or one of them for me. I felt Serp's claim of Survivor out of it, but it had some backing in that I didn't think it was too likely the Serp was scumpaired with Jan-san. For now though, I'm certain the Serp is our target. There's not a whole lot I can say about Affinity right now except that he's definitely scum if the game doesn't end after Serp's lynch.

My RoleClaim:
I am dBu Music, Townie AWESOME shot dayvig. During the day phase, and can take the metaphorical song that is this game and make a drastic Keyshift. I can only do this once a game because, really, how many shifts in tempo and key can you make during one song while keeping an audience?

As for posting restrictions, it's likely the result of Serp's or the Mod's doing. the former is much more likely.

I would love to see Serp and Affinity's reactions to these events.

[WHMZakeri]

Good music choice

Thanks. I thought it was the most fitting.

[Serp]

Well, drat.  It seems that I've been out-bombshelled.  For what it's worth, I'm leaning towards Zakeri as scum-with-a-daykill.  Regarding Affinity, his final vote on Sodium seems too decisive to be a bussing attempt, and he's been pretty consistently anti-Sodium all game.

##Vote Zakeri

I'll just park my vote here.

[Affinity]

Yes, I realized that I forgot to fulfill the condition due to not having enough time... and I would like the mod to confirm what happens if the posting restrictions are not fulfilled; would a PM be sent, or will a warning be made public?

I roleclaim IOSYS, vanilla townie.  The dayvig was partially surprising, and I'm not very sure what to make of it.  Considering however, that scum would have nothing to gain from such a dayvig (since alice would have been a mislynch candidate in the first place), I'm thinking of Zakeri as town.

Serp however, is less convincing on the account of the survivor claim and the quick vote on Zakeri which I don't endorse.  Primary candidate for today in my opinion.

[Affinity]

EBWOP: I got PM'ed by the mod that the post restrictions just last one day.  It wasn't properly said so though.

[Kiro]

Well, I was going to do the full reread tonight, but I got distracted. For the moment, my focus is going to be on the Day 4 posts and revelations and I'll consider everything as a whole by tomorrow. I'm primarily interested in Serp's #329 which was made under the pretense that I was considering Zakeri as his Scumbuddy.

The mod clarification that Scum can choose to Not Kill in my #336 doesn't completely clear Suwako since it's about as crazy of a gambit as a Scum Affinity possibly bussing both of his buddies. The difference is that Suwako's gambit requires Scum having the foresight to realize they could No Kill and/or having the roles available to have it blocked. Doing this while Town had 2 mislynches already is... possible, but I'm finding it harder to believe than anything else. Meh, still the lowest of the possible scumbuddies choices.

First off, Zakeri suspects Serp and Suwako at the start while Affinity suspects Serp. Therefore, there is already a likelihood of bussing with Zakeri being more iffy and Affinity being more certain. And Zakeri in #330 states the Serp/Sodium pair is unlikely and shoots Alice. It eliminates the WIFOM, but at the same time would bring us to a 3:2 LYLO if there are 2 more scum. I guess the weirdest thing that follows is that while Zakeri thinks Affinity would be the second Scum, Affinity is leaning Zakeri as Town. Affinity: if that's the case, who would you suspect as the final Scum then, me or Suwako?

On to Serp's #239: he goes along with the idea that me as a Naive cop would get an innocent result on Zakeri if I follow through with my plan at the time. And then pushes for a Zakeri lynch regardless of the fact that I had announced Zakeri would be his Scumbuddy. He also says we'd have to take our chances with Zakeri and Alice and fails to mention Affinity or Suwako. The final point is pretty much to vote Alice and say Zakeri is a good choice if we ever want to switch to him. Scum Serp could definitely set up that kind of a scenario in the hopes that we decide to avoid dealing with the conflicting copclaim results and just lynch Zakeri. But what would offering to lynch Zakeri who I thought was his Scumbuddy, do for Scum Serp at the time? Scum Serp should know that there's no way we'd meaningfully pass up a Guilty verdict so if we decided to just look for and lynch his Scumbuddy first, he's probably still more likely to die in Day 5 over Alice. Which makes him propping up Zakeri as the secondary choice as weird in context to my declaration about Zakeri earlier and suggests that Zakeri may not be the last Scum after all. And I already mentioned his comment about Affinity which is made under the assumption that I felt Affinity was the most Townie one at the time... way to prop him up more.

Now we have to consider what was going on with how Scum Serp would think about Zakeri as his buddy being a Scum Dayvig or Zakeri as a Townie while not knowing what role Town Zakeri had. For Zakeri to be a Scum Dayvig, killing a Townie is good, but killing Alice pretty much would have sealed Serp's fate. So the question is why is there any reason for Scum Zakeri to shoot Town Alice? In such a case, it would be better to not actually use the Vig at all and have him take his chances with a relatively inactive Alice as a possible Godmother in Day 5. This would definitely have been possible if Serp doesn't flip a Godmother (and I don't see how he can because I have a Guilty result on him). A Town Zakeri however, seeing the opportunity to safely Vig, chooses the target we would never be able to definitively clear which arguably outweighs the fact that it would have dropped us into 3:2. His reason to shoot Alice still kinda sucks because he's essentially defending Serp, but it's the action that's standing out a little more here. Zakeri, can you give us a better understanding of your thought processes from the end of Day 3 (where you don't vote either Kerigis or Sodium at deadline) to now?

Conclusion: Serp is trying to prop up Alice and Zakeri as lynch targets after my WoT. Serp is obviously trying to win and knows his time is counting down. If we are indeed in LYLO and he can just get people to mislynch once, Scum will escape. That strongly hints that both Alice (confirmed) and Zakeri (unconfirmed) are actual mislynch targets and this isn't a bussing tactic. And me saying Zakeri is likely Scum would have played right into his hands if Zakeri is Town and we just stopped thinking and went along with it. Furthermore, Serp in such a scenario may not have expected Town Zakeri to be able to clear the Alice WIFOM which in retrospect, makes what all of what he said come off real weird. Finally, he indirectly propped up Affinity when objectively, there's no need to do so. On this alone, I am definitely leaning Affinity as Scum over Zakeri. I just need to reread Day 1-3 in these contexts to see if it fits or not. The weakness with this whole analysis though is that it is dependent on how I think Serp would act as Scum. I think there are some reasoned guesses, but there's nothing I can truly bank on here. I especially want Suwako to give his input on a bunch of the above points.

I'm tired and having trouble thinking up more specific questions so any evidence Zakeri and Affinity want to put forward or questions about anything I've said, go ahead. Oh, and if Serp flips a Goon like Sodium did, then that means that either Affinity or Suwako is lying about not being able to give post restrictions, and I'm pretty sure I'd bank more on Affinity being the liar. You don't tend to forget about these things easily unless you're doing a EBWOP maybe and Affinity wasn't doing one when he missed the nuke.

[Affinity]

Well, it was over two days after the last time I posted a nuke, and so I forgot.  It was tiresome at best googling nuclear images and thus it was forgettable, especially after a quick reread and some thought.

If I had to choose between you and Suwako, I would choose Suwako on the account of the claim that he was targetted on N2.  This wasn't followed up on N3, although I could think that the serial killer may have targetted Rou as well, or that the reason why he was targetted on N2 was that scum has a one-shot nightvig.  He was also slightly inactive in his questioning of Sodium towards the end of D3 when the latter was producing things to work with, and on such grounds, it seems like a likely bus in retrospect.

Other than that, there is nothing concrete to counter against; just a suspicion so far.

[Serp]

Well, there's an interesting development.  There's one last vital piece of information about my role I was holding back on the off chance that scum would make this sort of screwup.  I had one ability in addition to nighttalking in order to help me reach the endgame.  That ability was a one shot bulletproof, and it was used up on Night 2.  At the time, I figured that either Suwako or myself had been targetted by a nightvig, and I preferred not to draw attention to myself by mentioning it in public.  But, no one has claimed a nightvig ability.  So, either someone out there is lying about their night ability (somewhat unlikely, as I see no reason for a townie to do so at this point), or Suwako is lying about having been attacked (maybe to determine whether people who have survived attacks really do get notified?).  Not that I expect anyone to take my words at face value by this point, but this rockets Suwako up to top suspicion for me, even considering how anti-Sodium he's been all game.  (Cut by Affinity, see end of post.)

Anyway, Kiro, if you really have confirmation that your sanity is one of the traditional ones, keep in mind that none of those would commit you to an "innocent" or "irrelevant" investigation result from third parties.  Since your result on Alice has been proven correct, you're effectively confirmed as sane.  This brings up the setup speculation point that as a sane cop you may well have been placed against three scum to start out with, meaning that two are still left alive.  If this is the case, then you can't afford to blindly follow your investigation result.  Keep that in mind when you finally decide to place your vote.

Cut by Affinity:

If I had to choose between you and Suwako, I would choose Suwako on the account of the claim that he was targetted on N2.  This wasn't followed up on N3, although I could think that the serial killer may have targetted Rou as well, or that the reason why he was targetted on N2 was that scum has a one-shot nightvig.  He was also slightly inactive in his questioning of Sodium towards the end of D3 when the latter was producing things to work with, and on such grounds, it seems like a likely bus in retrospect.

Ah, what?  I didn't claim that I was attacked N2 until just now.  You shouldn't have had any reason at all to believe that there were two night attacks N2, implicating the presence of either a serial killer or a nightvig.  There's no way you would've known that Suwako's uncontested-'till-now claim of being night-attacked was suspicious before this post.

##Unvote
##Vote Affinity

[Suwako Moriya]

Kiro: My thoughts on your thoughts are they're mostly correct and that there isn't as much dependent on guessing what Scum Serpentarius would do because a good chunk of it depends on Town Zakeri vs. Scum Zakeri. For all intents and purposes, I believe Zakeri is cleared, simply because 9/3 with a scum DayVig is extremely unlikely, even given who the mods are. Pile that on top of there being no reason for Scum Zakeri to off Alice in the fashion that he did, and Town Zakeri is the only thing I can conclude. None of this is based off of "what would Scum Serpentarius do?".

This led me to believe in a Serpentarius/Affinity scumpair, the same destination your train of thought went in that post, and this belief is only solidified by the recent turn of events, most notably Serpentarius' 345 and his claim that he was attacked on Night 2 in addition to myself. If this were true then there would have been no excuse for not coming out immediately. Why didn't you want to draw attention to yourself, Serpentarius? Was keeping yourself on the down-low really worth not letting town know there was a second NK role running around? (For the record, I do not believe a serial killer exists, given the lack of a second NK on Nights 1 and 3. It's possible scum and SK both targeted Carthrat and Roukanken but incredibly unlikely.)

I believe what just transpired in the last two posts was Serpentarius and Affinity trying a distancing tactic to create more confusion similar to Kiro going over Serpentarius and Zakeri earlier. This is compounded by "I was holding back on the off chance that scum would make this sort of screwup", which suggests he believes I'm scum (you held back on the claim for an entire day - and were theoretically prepared to hold back on it for another day - just for a situation that would, at best, cause more confusion?), and his line of reasoning about Kiro's copishness that can be summed up as "I know you're confirmed sane and have a guilty result on me, but you should still look somewhere else!". I would guess that, since his attempt to set up Zakeri as a mislynch has failed, he has switched to trying to set me up as a mislynch, with Affinity's "slip" to support him.

##Vote: Serpentarius

I don't see a need to hold back in case of scum self-hammer anymore.

[UncertainJakutten]

The Twentieth "Blood" Vote Count

The Maid and the Pocket Watch of Blood
 
Affinity (1): Serpentarius
Suwako Moriya (0)
Kiro (0)
Zakeri (0)
Serpentarius (1): Suwako Moriya

Not Voting (3):  Kiro, Affinity, Zakeri

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in 34 hours at 9:00 PM EST on Friday, August 21st.

[WHMZakeri]

So tell me this, then, Serp? if you think Sodium is definitely scum because he lied about being night protected, why did you vote Affinity for seemingly knowing Sodium lied? And why did you bother going after me and Alice if you knew all along Sodium was lying about his role? And more importantly ... if you're just the Survivor, what's to stop scum from coming forward, if neither of them are you, and saying "Hey, you can win if we all vote Kiro!"

I doubt you think there are two scum besides yourself, and if you were survivor, I'd think you were right. It wouldn't make sense to have sufficient evidence to go after one person and then vote for another for commenting on the evidence before you presented it.

And lastly, your evidence for voting Affinity is poor. It's based around the notion that he should completely buy into Suwako's roleclaim 100% unless someone else decides to counterclaim. The truth is, no one gains from believing Suwako in Absolute Faith unless you're Sanae, or it's been proven Suwako is town.

This is sufficient grounds for floundering scum, and I believe Suwako should be added to the list of "Unlikely to be scum due to more than bussing from Serp."

[WHMZakeri]

All references to half of the elemental components of Salt should instead be references to half of the contents of the Moriya Shrine.

[Affinity]

It wasn't a slip, but a gambit.  I'm a tracker, who got no results on N1 from tracking Carthrat.  I tracked Sodium on N2 and found that he had targeted Serp.  I was surprised that Serp did not claim being attacked on D3, which he would have surely done as a townie in order to give town more information (because scum already knew this after N2, I suppose).  Then I supposed that maybe he was roleblocked and decided to give him a pass as town. 

After Sodium's flip on D3, it became clear as to what was happening; Sodium was mafia goon and so Serp was NK'ed, meaning that he was bulletproof.  Targetted Serp again on N4 and there was nothing.  Under these circumstances, decided to roleclaim as townie to see what Serp would roleclaim but surprisingly, during his roleclaim, there was no mention of being targeted on N2.  As a final resort, I pretended to 'slip' the last post to incite a response and see if, maybe, there was a hidden doctor who protected him among the flips, but his last post got rid of that possibility, instead, suddenly coming out with a vote on me and taking the bait.

From the above information, I think that what happened on N2 was that scum had a night-vig (probably one-shot due to lack of extra kills on N1 and N3), but it was blocked.  Sodium then went ahead and NK'ed Serp in the process, but that NK was blocked too.  That night-vig's identity is difficult to ascertain; it sort of flips my suspicion list around; Suwako is relatively cleared while Zakeri and Kiro are slightly more likely candidtates. 

What is important here is that keeping information from town like this is scummy, the reason Serp gave, which was to catch scum if they made a mistake, is pretty strange on the account that it is very unlikely for scum to make such a mistake.  Also, the reason for catching the '2nd killer' if there was any, is bad as scum and/or the serial killer would have already known that there was such information, generating nothing but gotcha games as the parties involved could adjust accordingly.  From this, I think Serp is scum.  His attempt to put Zakeri as a candidate up for lynch as opposed to Zakeri, as the latter raised, is also questionable, and it fits with him not voting Sodium yesterday for less than good reasons.

##Vote: Serpentarius

Serpy is at L-1, etc.

[Affinity]

EBWOP: Posting restrictions just occured ot me with regards to this theory.  However, I wouldn't put it above the scum one-shot night-vig (if there is one, which I think there is) to be able to additionally give posting restrictions to people, and judging that so far, the restrictions have been near harmless, it doesn't seem to be implausible.

[Serp]

If this were true then there would have been no excuse for not coming out immediately. Why didn't you want to draw attention to yourself, Serpentarius? Was keeping yourself on the down-low really worth not letting town know there was a second NK role running around?

Oh, it was an anti-town move, I freely admit to that.  I've only been scumhunting insofar as it'd lead to an early end to the game and an easier win for me.  Survivor victory condition, remember?  If you were actually a townie telling the truth, for me to come out as also having been attacked and also being NK immune would've resulted in a counterclaim from you and heaps of suspicion on me, who had previously been on a fasttrack to the endgame.  If I were a townie, of course I'd have let everyone know as soon as it happened.

This is compounded by "I was holding back on the off chance that scum would make this sort of screwup", which suggests he believes I'm scum (you held back on the claim for an entire day - and were theoretically prepared to hold back on it for another day - just for a situation that would, at best, cause more confusion?)

Looks like it was a damn good idea, too.  I'll bet that up 'till just now, you thought that I hadn't noticed your NK attempt and you didn't need to have Affinity claim a nightvig role.

And why did you bother going after me and Alice if you knew all along Suwako was lying about his role?

Up 'till Affinity's roleclaim, I thought it was possible that Suwako was telling the truth.  If Affinity had roleclaimed Nightvig and said that he had hit either me or Suwako N2, then everything would have fit together and I'd have been up the creek without a paddle.

So tell me this, then, Serp? if you think Suwako is definitely scum because he lied about being night protected, why did you vote Affinity for seemingly knowing Suwako lied?

Read over it again - he says that Suwako is suspicious for claiming to be attacked N2 because it "wasn't followed up on" N3.  There was one kill N3, and he should only have been "aware" of one NK attempt N2.  He wasn't saying that he knew Suwako lied, he was saying that he had reason to believe that Suwako was lying due to evidence the town didn't have.  Only scum would be in a position to know that someone out there was aware that somone else had been attacked N2.  I'm 100% certain that he's scum.

Meanwhile, I was leaving open the slim possibility that Suwako was a townie and had lied to try and trip up scum, but this seems even more unlikely after his post sidestepping Affinity and trying to rush a quicklynch of me.  If the game ends after Affinity goes down, that's great, but if I'm 100% certain that Affinity is scum, then I'm...  95% certain that Suwako is as well.

And more importantly ... if you're just the Survivor, what's to stop scum from coming forward, if neither of them are you, and saying "Hey, you can win if we all vote Kiro!"

I doubt you think there are two scum besides yourself, and if you were survivor, I'd think you were right. It wouldn't make sense to have sufficient evidence to go after one person and then vote for another for commenting on the evidence before you presented it.

Interesting point.  It wouldn't have been possible before you vigged Alice, but now it is.  I was too flustered after your dayvig to even consider it.  What do you say, Affinity, Suwako?  Things are about to get pretty hot in here.

As a final resort, I pretended to 'slip' the last post to incite a response and see if, maybe, there was a hidden doctor who protected him among the flips, but his last post got rid of that possibility, instead, suddenly coming out with a vote on me and taking the bait.

This makes no sense at all.  Who could have been the hidden doc?  Did you think that Kiro could investigate and protect two different people in one night?  Did you think that Zakeri was a dayvig-nightdoc?  Did you think that Suwako protected me and then claimed to be attacked himself?

From the above information, I think that what happened on N2 was that scum had a night-vig (probably one-shot due to lack of extra kills on N1 and N3), but it was blocked.  Sodium then went ahead and NK'ed Serp in the process, but that NK was blocked too.

If I were Suwako's scumbuddy, why would he try to NK me in the first place?  If you were actually telling the truth with all this, shouldn't that have confirmed to you in that I'm not scum, and shouldn't you have come out with that evidence in defense of me earlier today instead of baiting imaginary docs?

[Kiro]

So, you're also a one shot bulletproof as well as a Mason Survivor Serp? Nice. I'd honestly have given you more credence if you brought it up earlier, but you waited to see what type of protective type role was out there first. Also, of course I can't blindly follow my investigation result. But if I'm sane, there's no indication as to why I should ignore a Guilty result. You've long been a foregone thought, I'm just thinking about Town's future.

The back and forth by Affinity and Serp in #344 is weird. Frankly, Affinity is making no sense with his theory about the serial killer and I'd lean towards the idea that there's intentional confusion going on. Serp switching it up to Affinity now had no effect on me because everything after my post last night is now tainted with the idea that Serp can only try to confuse us rather than possibly push for a mislynch.

Oh hey, Suwako said the exact same things I posted above. I calculated that 3 Scum with a Dayvig amongst them is actually not terribly imbalanced. With or without the Vig, Town can only afford 2 mislynches over Scum lynches. So I didn't want to consider that point. But the rest of what you said makes sense to me.

Also, Town Affinity shouldn't have to have first lied about being a Vanilla Townie before now claiming a Tracker. He's the last one to roleclaim today so there should have been nothing for him to hide in the first place. Why you should expect Serp to have hidden or change parts of his story or roleclaim is beyond me. If a Cop has a Guilty result on you and you're not Scum, you better damn well put everything forward first to give you the best chance of dissuading the likely lynch. You expecting Serp to not do that is unreasonable. Also, if Sodium tracked Serp on Night 2, why'd you start off going for Kerigis in Day 3? You place no new pressure on Xan/Sodium despite him being your first target on Day 2. And I should also note that your actual final vote in Day 2 was on Alice, who stood a decent chance of being mislynched while dropping it from a now-confirmed Scum.

I don't think I have any more questions. I can see Zakeri probably looks like he's leaning towards Affinity as the last Scum as well, but I'm more or less set. If he has any more questions, he can ask them, but if not, feel free to hammer.

[Serp]

I'd honestly have given you more credence if you brought it up earlier, but you waited to see what type of protective type role was out there first.

At least consider the scenario that I'm not scum and Affinity is, for a moment.  If I had claimed to have been attacked, Affinity would've roleclaimed a vig role in order to protect Suwako's claim of having been attacked too.  I wasn't waiting to see protective roles - I was waiting to see killing roles.

But if I'm sane, there's no indication as to why I should ignore a Guilty result.

I'm not asking you to ignore it.  I'm asking you to keep in mind that if you've scanned a third party and there are two more scum out there, you don't have the wiggle room to blindly follow it.  Your Guilty result does not equal a mafioso flip.  You're wagering the whole game on your investigation meaning exactly what you think it does.

The back and forth by Affinity and Serp in #344 is weird. Frankly, Affinity is making no sense with his theory about the serial killer and I'd lean towards the idea that there's intentional confusion going on. Serp switching it up to Affinity now had no effect on me because everything after my post last night is now tainted with the idea that Serp can only try to confuse us rather than possibly push for a mislynch.

Affinity's posts are weird in themselves.  You seem to have eliminated everyone else as one of my scumbuddies, a lynch of Affinity should be just as safe as a lynch of me.  He's clearly scum, by evidence stronger than a cop investigation.  Lynch him now, and then whoever's left tomorrow will choose whether to lynch me or Suwako.  That's the only way Town can win at this point.

[WHMZakeri]

Yes, Guys, we should totally hold back on our roleclaim information even if it means lying about it. I'm sure it would give the town a lot of valid information to work with, and will help the town to piece together everything that happened during the night phases to better understand everything. And I'm sure that once you come out with the real information, the Town will surely trust you, because you were honest with them to begin with.

All I'm seeing from these interactions and Affinity's roleclaim is Serp trying to give Affinity a solid out through the only mislynch that is currently viable. This of course is awkwardly worded between them because Serp is still trying play as a survivor would this late in the game.

Affinity: What exactly makes you think there's someone with a Night kill besides Mafia? Who do you think it could be? Someone alive or someone dead? Also, Since Suwako's ability is that he doesn't get targeted, it's unlikely the the mod would give him a warning anyway, so where aside from Suwako assuming it was him that was targeted and not Serp makes you think that both Suwako and Serp were shot?

All of this information is starting to confuse and worry me. Affinty's claim completely backs up Serp's, which proves to me that they're both the same amount of worthy of the lynch, either by both being scum supporting each other indirectly, or by both of them being truthful about their abilities and alignment, which means our last scum would be suwako. Their weird stances in voting for each other seems awkward to me now, since they're practically tied to the knot and act like they're different alignments. All of this rocking out too close to a wall is giving me a headache.

[Suwako Moriya]

Oh, it was an anti-town move, I freely admit to that.  I've only been scumhunting insofar as it'd lead to an early end to the game and an easier win for me.  Survivor victory condition, remember?  If you were actually a townie telling the truth, for me to come out as also having been attacked and also being NK immune would've resulted in a counterclaim from you and heaps of suspicion on me, who had previously been on a fasttrack to the endgame.  If I were a townie, of course I'd have let everyone know as soon as it happened.

Except, at the time, there was a very real possibility of a SK running around, given Nietz's claim. Had you really been attacked, this would have been taken into consideration when you claimed such. Town Serpentarius (or Survivor Serpentarius, to humor the roleclaim) would have had no way of knowing there wasn't actually a serial killer on the loose and probably even would have brought the SK possibility up himself when claiming.

[Kiro]

I don't see why we should bother lynching anyone else over Serp today. For our purposes in this LYLO, 1 Scum and 1 Survivor is essentially the same as 2 Scum. The only way we will lose if Serp is a Survivor is if there are 2 other Scum along with him. And having 3 Scum, 1 Survivor and 8 Townies in this game looks grossly imbalanced. I will take that chance. Serp's latest actions as well as the guilty result are more than enough to have him lynched. Hell, if he flips a Survivor type with a Bulletproof option, that just reopens the case on Suwako which is good information for us. I believe this at least would eliminate some doubt about Suwako who we only have his word that he received a PM about being attacked. I can see our mods giving him that kind of information despite all other normal player type actions used against him being blocked. It's standard enough for some mods.

Us thinking about this for too long is bound to cause confusion. I know Zakeri has put out questions for Affinity, but they can be delayed till tomorrow depending on who's still alive then. His first paragraph pretty much clinches the scumminess of Serp and Affinity in my eyes along with bad voting history. I guess we could also note that a Scum Affinity merely tying the votes up in Day 3 allows him to selectively look good in either case. He avoids having his name on the mislynch, looks better if/when Sodium flips Scum AND there's a chance the mislynch would have occurred in the haiku-off anyways.

Time to stick with the common sense approach, something Serp and Affinity are deviating from. Scum did not kill anyone Night 2 and we have a bulletproof claim in Suwako that looks more legit than Serp's. Zakeri vigged a target that would have definitely been the optimal one to leave alive if he were Scum. In light of Serp's and Affinity's panicky looking changing stories, I am not willing to think either Suwako or Zakeri would have taken those drastic steps to distance themselves as Scum. Both Town Serp and Town Affinity can play better than that.

Let's finish this.

##Vote Serpentarius
HAMMER!

I have nothing to add to Suwako's post.

[Kiro]

Oops, I knew I was missing something.

Zakeri,

Zakeri, can you give us a better understanding of your thought processes from the end of Day 3 (where you don't vote either Kerigis or Sodium at deadline) to now?

Please answer this in Twilight or tomorrow.

[UncertainJakutten]

HAMMER shut up.