Author Topic: INVASION! (Game Over, Nobody Wins) (Read 81323 times)

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #390 on:** September 20, 2009, 01:33:00 PM »

Quote from: Affinity on September 20, 2009, 12:35:32 PM

Secondly, what business do you have in defending Anthony at all?

So if I point out one piece in a case that doesn't make sense, I'm immediately defending the culprit?
I pointed out that the one point Kiro made - the one with VgT's hasty deja vu response - didn't really make a lot of sense. I'm not making any effort to argue with the rest of the case - hell, I said later in that post that the rest of Anthony's actions spoke for themselves. I'm still ready to lynch him without objection based on his previous play, but I just felt that point was relatively nonsensical.

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Furthermore, how is my rival, Suwako, making sense to you?

In retrospect. Kilga's already made the point that Suwako showed up as a second-place lynch pretty hastily behind VgT, and disregarding the flip now to hold on to D1 suspicions is pretty terrible. There's almost definitely scum on that wagon, and it's the early jumpers that look worse - in this case, Serp and Zak. Zak's lack of opinions on the wake of D2 besides VOTE SERP aren't helping.

Sodium · « **Reply #391 on:** September 20, 2009, 01:45:14 PM »

Anthony, I think you have the wrong idea on Night Kills. Night Kills are USUALLY caused by scum, and they USUALLY target people they want to die. Common sense really.

Pesco: I was more or less pointing out how Serp's first Day 2 post looks hilariously like mine from Communication Breakdance in a sense.
"X IS STILL MY PRIME SUSPECT BECAUSE THE SCUM LYNCH DIDN'T MAKE HIM LOOK BETTER".
Oh, and I was pointing out some post from Kitten4u(213) that was basically how I summarized it as.

Waiting for Serp to come back after looking at all the Day 2 cases, as he said he would.

Staying on Angel Milk because I think he's scum in front of me. Second choice for vote is Serp or Anthony.

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #392 on:** September 20, 2009, 02:18:52 PM »

UncertainKitten needs to post.

Except she has to go to church first.

So, I'll be back later with that Serpy reread, and I'll try to reread D2.

Affinity · « **Reply #393 on:** September 20, 2009, 02:46:13 PM »

Oh, sorry Rou, I misunderstood, though I usually think that such things should be spoken of by the accused himself on policy, since you weren't accusing Kiro of anything. In any case, the other question was on why you said that Serp being around on the deadline was scummy. His presence could have been totally due to circumstance, and it doesn't seem like a very convincing "I agree with the case", even more out of place than Zak's.

Edible · « **Reply #394 on:** September 20, 2009, 05:38:29 PM »

Vote Count: Curiouser and curiouser?
Anthony (4) - Kiro, Pesco, Kitten4U, Affinity
Serpentarius (2) - Kilgamayan, Zakeri
Angel Milk (2) - Suwako Moriya, Sodium
Roukanken (1) - UncertainKitten
Suwako Moriya (1) - Serpentarius
Sodium (1) - Roukanken

Not voting: Anthony, Nietz, Angel Milk

48 hours or so remain.

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #395 on:** September 20, 2009, 05:54:39 PM »

I really don't want to do this but...I guess I better get into it and get it over with.

Incoming Wall, CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION (Oh shi- I'm Orin not Okuu)

I love how it takes til page 6 for Serpy to post any content.

So, let's read post 168: Pushes Anthony, pokes me. Kinda expected...telegraphs suwako, pokes Nietz for the same reason he pokes me...

Pokes VgT...I mean, overall, it's a well reasoned post, if a bit lacking at the end. I'll also state that if Anthony flips town, Serpy is more likely scum, and if Serpy flips scum, Anthony is more likely town.

174 is fair...

222 has more argument on gut clearing...and I see where Kilga sees "What the hell happened to VgT?"

I don't like it.

Doesn't post again til 308. I don't like this either. Slipping under the radar much?

The post itself tries to weakly justify a Suwako lynch over VgT, who mysteriously was absent from post 222...I don't like this, it's like he's only accepting VgTs lynch because it's probably inevitable.

Ready to hammer posts, etc.

Now we are on Day 2. Let me open another tab so I can do both Serpy and Day 2 analysis. So I'll be posting a catch up post after this:

335 is interesting. Regarding your 222 you also placed several people above him suddenly without justifying it well. Justification for Suwako is also pretty much at odds with using flips.

342 doesn't satisfy me as a counter (obviously). It also says "I'mma hang back and let others do the work" in my eyes.

ok...no more Serpy posts.

I have to read Rou, but a Serpy lynch would not be a bad thing either IMO.

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #396 on:** September 20, 2009, 05:54:50 PM »

Day 2 anal:

Kilga and UK banter for the first page of it

Rou weakly defends, but to be fair he doesn't have a specific case to throw himself at. Just generalizations, which I will rectify in the post after this one since I want to reread Rou to compare Serpy to.

Rou feels odd for kinda waffling. "You have to consider it! but...it's unlikely..." what's unsaid is "...but if I can justify it I'm all aboard for mislynching Suwako"

Suwako is still useless. What's your conclusions relating to Umu? To VgT?

Nietz needs to post, lol

Kilga 347 is mostly on the mark.

Kiro is fair. I don't disagree with the Anthony case, I just think there are better targets. (long shot from my gut clear, I know). I'd like more opinions, but I'm certain I'll get them with his reread.

Sodium 351 starts off with a gut clear a little late for my tastes (I mean, after Anthony's actions...)
It's at least succint, to the point...I'd like more meat but I think it's a good summary of the situation, even if I disagree with the conclusion. Not sure if want right now.

Rou 352...did you just pull too scummy to be scum? I don't buy it in Umineko, and I don't buy it here! Plus leggo my Eggo.

And it was pesco, but VgT wasn't answering well.

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Will you retards with no psychic abilities stop using my keywords. Mindhax can be backed up by laying out the thought process.

Women's intuition then

. Though I retracted it, so not very useful ne?

Pesco needs to provide that lookover then

Anthony 356 is so bad it's horrible. You have nothing else to say?

K4U 361 is well reasoned.

Rou 363 feels bad. Where does Kitten say that?

The problem with Kiro 370 is you assume Anthony scum before he's flipped. While it's entirely possible (and I wouldn't mind his lynch), I don't think it's good to clear Serp on that...but let me continue reading. Ok, the next paragraphs make up for it...I have to reread Rou before I pick which lynch I prefer.

Kiro 375. I technically could be accused of the same if Anthony flips scum. But I see your point...

Pesco 379 is fine (at least you somewhat followed through)

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Affinity - IIRC Affinity avoided VgT completely on Day 1. The back and forth between Affinity and Umu gives me the feeling that he'd have called for her NK if he was scum. His vote has better backing than Rou's.

Perhaps I should reread him as well...

Agree with Rou 384 about Zak. Nothing?

Anthony 386 has AtE mixed in with content...but somewhat bad content. Why in the nine hells would ANYONE NK Angel Milk? He was lurking yesterday, and if he is town he's liable to be mislynched. And your reasons are TERRIBAD. Honestly...are you trying?

And that's D2. I would not mind Anthony or Angel Milk dying today. But I doubt they are both scum, and I want to look at Rou now. I'd rather Anthony bite the bullet over Angel Milk because something feels "easy target" here.

Nietz · « **Reply #397 on:** September 20, 2009, 06:04:26 PM »

Well I'm back, I'll write my opinions on rereads I've done so far and then I really need to go get some sleep.

First, Angel Milk: If anyone embodies anti-towness, it's him. Not only has he contributed with nearly nothing, but even in the case he is town, he's made of himself a very acceptable subject to vote for. He's the player I believe we all agree to hate (game-wise), and that in itself is enough to make me a little wary of people voting him as an easy way out. However, the little we did have from him was showing up to join Suwako's wagon with flimsy reasoning and a quick dismissal of VgT's case, which puts him in the suspect territory. On this subject:

Quote from: Roukanken on September 19, 2009, 10:14:52 PM

I suppose the thing with Tenshi is that he seems almost too obvious. >_>
Then again, given that, Town!Tenshi would logically have been easy prey for scum yesterday, and since no-one went for him...

What? By what logic would scum go after an largely uncooperative town that's likely to be wagoned the next day. It wouldn't make sense even to avoid a protect, considering how many player there were left.

Antohny: Rereading him D1, I still get the impression he is a townie newbie making mistakes, but considering I had a similar impression o VgT, I'm not so confident in that anymore. Plus, going all-out for Milk just because "he was not killed last night and feels scum to me" fits right in what I just said about Dairy Product.

Affinity: Pretty much avoided VgT except for one inconsequential exchange. Prods K4U and then votes Suwako and stays there, with little more than acknowledging there might case for the rest of the day. His D2 questioning seems good so far, though I don't agree in his point that VgT was fervently defending Anthony.

Serpentarius: Looks scummy in retrospect, for reasons that Kilgamayan as already presented. Namely, the timing of his vote in Suwako, as well as an apparent effort to keep the possibility of a VgT as a fall-back. His main reason for voting Suwako, basically that his behaviour was a Moriya Shrine Conspiracy to confuse us, looks a little off. Looking back a little it really feels more like an excuse to vote rather a reason.

Pesco: I've already mentioned that I don't have much of my D1 case left on him. I still don't like so much the way he played so far, but he's not on

Zakeri, K4U, Kiro I don't have much to comment for now, seem mostly townish at the moment.

Suwako looks better now, but I want to to see how her play develops.

I still still have to give another read to Rou, UK, Kilga and Eliphas/Sodium and see where I should place my vote (leaning Serpentarius at the moment). I'll see to it when I'm not so tired.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #398 on:** September 20, 2009, 06:20:47 PM »

Quote from: Affinity on September 20, 2009, 02:46:13 PM

In any case, the other question was on why you said that Serp being around on the deadline was scummy. His presence could have been totally due to circumstance, and it doesn't seem like a very convincing "I agree with the case", even more out of place than Zak's.

It's the fact that for the entire day, more or less, he has VgT sitting as his secondary lynch, despite never bringing up his actions after his first few posts. It's all 'Suwako is terrible because of X,Y and Z, but I'm conveniently willing to hammer VgT if I need to'.

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Rou feels odd for kinda waffling. "You have to consider it! but...it's unlikely..." what's unsaid is "...but if I can justify it I'm all aboard for mislynching Suwako"

The last time I brought up an unlikely scenario was accusing scumAlice in Worker's Union. And besides, in that post I actually did accept Kilga's point and drop my case on Suwako.

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Rou 363 feels bad. Where does Kitten say that?

I read 361 as initially saying 'Rou misdirected away from Anthony onto Suwako' and then switching to 'Rou is doing his best to get Anthony lynched', which I thought was paradoxical.

Question for Zakeri - looking back over D1, you seemed relatively accepting of pretty much every suggested lynch. You say here that Suwako, Anthony and VgT are all scummy. Why, then, did you choose Suwako over the other two, and were there any serious lynch suggestions yesterday that you didn't agree with? :/

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #399 on:** September 20, 2009, 06:45:02 PM »

Final wall for now. Roukanken. I'll do the Affinity rere later.

Post 50 declares end of RVS. Not good, but nothing I really care about

Arguments with pesco on page 3...not much scumhunting, not that there was much to do really

91 has the "irritation" stuff. Guess that third on the wagon for Anthony REALLY made him scummy

93 is fair

104 is fair

109 is a disagreement. And doesn't defend his strawman

Rou 112 is the third time I've seen "opinions on UK". For someone not voting me you sure talk a lot about me. It feels like a set up

ugh at 128. More on the "third on wagon". But he does telegraph Suwa hate

134 misread. You really have me on the brain...

140 is almost a waffle. But I've been known to do the same, so null tell. (You know, give people a chance to be awesome before voting them)

Oh hey, 149 kinda pushes a few people but maintains Anthony is the ~~antichrist~~ scummiest dude around

157 is the AtA that's bad.

183 telegraphs more Suwako hate. misinterprets pesco. I do agree the "third on the wagon", while a horrible point, is getting too much argument over your kinda sorta decent points. Starts the wagon on Suwako. This feels like the first post that goes outside of Suwa/Anthony/UK hate with a pinch of Kilga. Also, misses answering questions (thanks pesco)

I see what pesco means about the contradiction. Just how much of a tell was third on the wagon to you at that point would have been a good question.

188 answers the better question proposed above.

190 makes me laugh...sorry Rou. But interestingly enough Rou, you brought up a Suwa PR not too long before you voted him. Hmm...

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Third on the wagon is more likely to be scum because they see a potential wagon and jump on it, right? Anthony claimed to be doing exactly that, word for word.

Why are you defending this after we already said it's bad?

210 misinterprets what I meant, but oh well. You really do have fair enough points on Anthony so you should probably be switching to him at this point as opposed to riding the Suwa ship

228 is the TERRIBAD SUSPICION LIST. I already fought with him over this. What I didn't ask was for him to back up his entire list, which he never did...

232 Rou fail, etc.

234 misreps me. defends VgT...

241 is more Rou fail defending VgT by attacking me.

I hear a chensaw starting up

Hardcore.

244...more VgT defense, attacking me...

How the hell did I not call chensaw before!

most of page 9 is me and Rou back and forth, but 255 requires further mention for strawmannery.

259 raegquit, and never gives me an answer. He can't defend VgT anymore.

I kinda feel bad for page 10 Rou...

296 feels like a field of straw.

Kilga is basically advocating succinctness, not shut up and do nothing approach. You accuse him of this however. Nicht gut.

303 feels bad as well, considering it's using the same bad framework for Kilga's arguments

334 is bad and Rou should feel bad. At least the start is. Not even TRYING to defend...

Piggyback on serp, poke Sodium.

338 waffle..

357 is fair on Anthony. Honestly, I'm not sure what Anthony's flip wrt you will mean

363 strawman

369 gives me a slight gripe about not having seen Rou use that "tell" before. But whatev

Rou does bring up fair points on Zak

I don't see that read of 361 but whatev. Also, this situation is a different kind of unlikely. This one has the power of VOTE HISTORY! *dun dun dun*

tl;dr version
Ok, basically, Rou is more likely scum due to CHEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSAAAAAAAAW on me with VgT, Suwa over Anthony when one was a better case, and a lot of noise and avoiding answering questions.

I also agree that half this wall is probably unnecessary, but it shows you my thoughts so I'll keep it intact...sorry.

I'll keep my vote on Rou, willing to move to Anthony or Serpy if we need a lynch. Also Angel Milk, but less so. Will reread Affinity sometime in the distant future, hopefully before D2 ends.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #400 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:00:11 PM »

Quote from: UncertainKitten on September 20, 2009, 06:45:02 PM

Rou 112 is the third time I've seen "opinions on UK". For someone not voting me you sure talk a lot about me. It feels like a set up

I saw you as the other big point of discussion at the time, given that I didn't like your gutclear of Anthony so early on. That's why I felt that it was worth talking about you so much.

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Third on the wagon is more likely to be scum because they see a potential wagon and jump on it, right? Anthony claimed to be doing exactly that, word for word.

Why are you defending this after we already said it's bad?

Because I was trying to explain why I did it. It had become so automatic after several games that I sort of memorised the meta without thinking what it meant. >_>

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228 is the TERRIBAD SUSPICION LIST. I already fought with him over this. What I didn't ask was for him to back up his entire list, which he never did...

A list of reasoning for six different people on Day 1 is sort of a lot to expect.

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234 misreps me. defends VgT...

241 is more Rou fail defending VgT by attacking me.

I hear a chensaw starting up

Hardcore.

244...more VgT defense, attacking me...

How the hell did I not call chensaw before!

I mentioned one point which I saw as a backstep, but in retrospect I realised I screwed up horribly on. I have a terrible habit of never letting a point go no matter how badly the argument is going for me, and it showed here. >_>

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Kilga is basically advocating succinctness, not shut up and do nothing approach. You accuse him of this however. Nicht gut.

His wording of it, taken straight from here, was 'choosing instead to wait for solid information to work off of'. Given that on Day 1 there is no solid information...

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334 is bad and Rou should feel bad. At least the start is. Not even TRYING to defend...

Is it a better move for Town to waste time getting caught up in defending themselves or to move forward and hunt? Townies don't redeem themselves through explaining their mistakes, they redeem themselves by catching scum.

Pesco · « **Reply #401 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:04:01 PM »

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Is it a better move for Town to waste time getting caught up in defending themselves or to move forward and hunt? Townies don't redeem themselves through explaining their mistakes, they redeem themselves by catching scum.

That's rather funny because you've spent a lot of time arguing about your own points and not much in finding scum.

You also acknowledge that you don't like dropping a losing cause, so being self-aware of it, I expect you to shape up.

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #402 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:09:39 PM »

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A list of reasoning for six different people on Day 1 is sort of a lot to expect.

Attacking 6 people on Day 1 without reasoning is not a good idea then, is it?

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I mentioned one point which I saw as a backstep, but in retrospect I realised I screwed up horribly on. I have a terrible habit of never letting a point go no matter how badly the argument is going for me, and it showed here. >_>

I have a statement I'd usually apply here but it comes off as bitchy so I'll spare it. I'm just going to say it won't clear you.

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His wording of it, taken straight from here, was 'choosing instead to wait for solid information to work off of'. Given that on Day 1 there is no solid information...

I'd like him to explain this one then.

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Is it a better move for Town to waste time getting caught up in defending themselves or to move forward and hunt? Townies don't redeem themselves through explaining their mistakes, they redeem themselves by catching scum.

Fair. Quite fair actually. I retract that statement. But there is the fact that you got rather caught up earlier

I still can't really forgive the CHEEEEEEEEEEEENSAW and I don't see any scummier alternatives, with the possible exception of Anthony (then again, I don't like his wagon despite liking the reasons...I think I may want to reread him as well though I think I know what I'll see)

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #403 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:13:57 PM »

Quote from: Pesco on September 20, 2009, 07:04:01 PM

That's rather funny because you've spent a lot of time arguing about your own points and not much in finding scum.

There isn't much I can say that hasn't already been produced by other people - Sodium hasn't made any effort to defend himself, but he has real life as an excuse for now so I can't really press on that. I'm questioning Zak at this point as well since despite also being awkwardly placed on the Suwako wagon yesterday he's jumped onto Serp today without so much as a second thought.

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You also acknowledge that you don't like dropping a losing cause, so being self-aware of it, I expect you to shape up.

This is where I get confused, though. I get frightened than admitting 'okay I'm wrong' is worse than arguing the point to its conclusion, so yeah.

Quote from: UncertainKitten on September 20, 2009, 07:09:39 PM

Attacking 6 people on Day 1 without reasoning is not a good idea then, is it?

Key point underlined. Only attacking one person on D1 is pretty much tunneling.

Edible · « **Reply #404 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:19:32 PM »

Vote Count: Operation Copy/Paste The Votecount Is A Go
Anthony (4) - Kiro, Pesco, Kitten4U, Affinity
Serpentarius (2) - Kilgamayan, Zakeri
Angel Milk (2) - Suwako Moriya, Sodium
Roukanken (1) - UncertainKitten
Suwako Moriya (1) - Serpentarius
Sodium (1) - Roukanken

Not voting: Anthony, Nietz, Angel Milk

UncertainJakutten · « **Reply #405 on:** September 20, 2009, 07:21:15 PM »

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Key point underlined. Only attacking one person on D1 is pretty much tunneling.

Sorry, I was playing within your parameters. My point is you should back up your reasoning with every person you accuse.

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This is where I get confused, though. I get frightened than admitting 'okay I'm wrong' is worse than arguing the point to its conclusion, so yeah.

Depends on the situation. Which doesn't help you, but it's something you hopefully pick up

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #406 on:** September 20, 2009, 09:42:01 PM »

Bumping because PEOPLE NEED TO TALK. SERIOUSLY.

Kilgamayan · « **Reply #407 on:** September 20, 2009, 10:52:05 PM »

I would love to talk some more! But I need Serp to give me something to respond to first. :<

Edible · « **Reply #408 on:** September 20, 2009, 11:01:23 PM »

Hey, here's another vote count! Don't say I never gave you anything. <3

Vote Count: Who loves ya?
Anthony (4) - Kiro, Pesco, Kitten4U, Affinity
Serpentarius (2) - Kilgamayan, Zakeri
Angel Milk (2) - Suwako Moriya, Sodium
Roukanken (1) - UncertainKitten
Suwako Moriya (1) - Serpentarius
Sodium (1) - Roukanken

Not voting: Anthony, Nietz, Angel Milk

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #409 on:** September 20, 2009, 11:02:51 PM »

When exactly is Tenshi due for a prod, anyway? He hasn't posted for the whole day. >_>

Good point.

He's been prodded.

Affinity · « **Reply #410 on:** September 20, 2009, 11:25:55 PM »

Quote from: Rou

It's the fact that for the entire day, more or less, he has VgT sitting as his secondary lynch, despite never bringing up his actions after his first few posts. It's all 'Suwako is terrible because of X,Y and Z, but I'm conveniently willing to hammer VgT if I need to'.

Oh okay, misinterpreted again, I guess; so your case is the same as Kilga's.

---

@Nietz

Personally I feel a kind of weird dynamic over Nietz's posts about Anthony and Angel Milk. On D1, Nietz did defend VgT and Anthony to some extent and was wary of scum voting them due to them being easy targets, which is the very basis of his pesco vote, but his recent post here on D2 more or less does the same thing with Angel Milk, except that he accentuates the negative, thinking that he's anti-town, and yet still wary of people voting him for that. Why?

Also, how, in your view, do you differentiate a newbie bewildered by all these posts and posting bad content, to a newbie posting bad content more regularly? Their mistakes are mostly the same variety, so how is Angel Milk more scummy than Anthony in this regard?

Lastly, I don't particularly like how VgT's flip affects your view of playstyles and Anthony for this game, seeing that you supposedly had a larger body of evidence saying that newbies were often mislynches, this kind of makes you feel like some compulsive gambler. Gives an air of inconsistency about your playstyle which I don't really endorse; this is bad for the crops.

Sodium · « **Reply #411 on:** September 20, 2009, 11:45:25 PM »

Roukan: How am I supposed to defend against a confirmed scum supposedly bussing me, when I wasn't here? >_>

Aaaaand nothing really new happened. Except for a new Nietz case by Affinity.
Need a new post from Serp, Tenshi, and Anthony. Oh, Suwako would be nice too.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #412 on:** September 21, 2009, 12:09:02 AM »

Quote from: Sodium on September 20, 2009, 11:45:25 PM

Roukan: How am I supposed to defend against a confirmed scum supposedly bussing me, when I wasn't here? >_>

Do what I'm doing to make up for D1 - scumhunt. Press people, ask questions, don't just report and ask for content like you've been doing so far. T_T

Kiro · « **Reply #413 on:** September 21, 2009, 12:33:08 AM »

Just skimmed the thread. I'm chilling at a LAN center as internet at home isn't working. Maybe I'll get in a better post by tonight or tomorrow at work.

Not much to comment on, except not liking Anthony's justification for the Tenshi lynch at the moment. Scum are not going to NK ambiguously scummy targets unless they suspect/determine he's a dangerous power role.

Serp · « **Reply #414 on:** September 21, 2009, 12:49:10 AM »

Apologies for the long delay since my last post; my sleep schedule is in the process of being rotated back around to something approaching normal.

Quote from: Kilgamayan

It's also worth pointing out that Serp has opened today with a vote based on a Day 1 case whilst completely ignoring the flip and trains.

I would seriously like to see a case against Suwako founded in flips and trains, not worthless Day 1 opinions, because empirical evidence suggests it's outlandish to think Day 1 was a scum/scum train duo.

Did you miss the part where I accused Suwako of purposefully going out of his way to avoid connecting himself to any potential scum flips in the first place? This is exactly why I considered his play suspicious. Making cases from scum flips is great when it's an available option, but when someone goes out of his way to make that technique impossible to use against him, I think that's strong evidence in itself.

As to the likelihood of two scum trains running side by side, it's statistically unlikely, but only in the sense that a randomly chosen bandwagon is statistically unlikely to yield a scum flip. Considering how flagrantly Suwako had just brushed everyone off, I would've been more surprised if he didn't draw a bunch of kneejerk votes, regardless of his alignment. I don't think that the Suwako wagon suddenly shooting up was a scummy development. If Suwako flips town, then the people who jumped on the wagon late may well have been doing so to save VgameT, but I don't really think that Suwako will flip town in the first place, so the point is moot.

Alright, as for how I'd order Suwako, Angel Milk, and Anthony, I should also point out that if Suwako flips scum, then we'll have confirmation that late D1, the other scum were basically faced with a choice of which scumbuddy to bus, which will change the way we need to look at all their actions. It wouldn't clear anyone, but if he is scum, then we're basically chasing shadows and falling for scum's WIFOM game by looking for who jumped on his wagon late.

However, if Angel Milk is scum, that would virtually clear Suwako, and sink my theory. So, as far as infolynches go, Angel Milk is superior to Suwako. Furthermore, what Suwako has been doing explicitly and openly, Angel Milk has been doing covertly. I guess I wouldn't expect Angel Milk to consciously decide to play that way, but I wouldn't expect anyone to consciously try that gambit in the first place, and I suppose I could see Angel Milk's scumbuddies telling him to lie low and avoid saying anything incriminating, which he could well interpret as saying nothing at all. :V

As for where Anthony fits into this, I think Kiro's making a mountain out of a molehill regarding the early fiasco with VgameT's recollection of an old game. Looks more like a three stooges reenactment than a chainsaw defense. His decision to wait for "better proof" in 200 looks bad, but is consistent with his newbish mindset, and even if Suwako were town, his vote in 253 could just be bad judgement. Pretty much all of his reasoning is horrible, which means it's hard to discern whether his points are coming from a town or a scum perspective, but that just makes him a viable policy lynch.

##Unvote
##Vote: Angel Milk

My lynch priorities are Angel Milk, then Suwako, then Anthony.

Edible · « **Reply #415 on:** September 21, 2009, 12:58:37 AM »

Vote Count: More Totally Unnecessary, Yet Completely Accurate Vote Counts
Anthony (4) - Kiro, Pesco, Kitten4U, Affinity
Angel Milk (3) - Suwako Moriya, Sodium, Serpentarius
Serpentarius (2) - Kilgamayan, Zakeri
Roukanken (1) - UncertainKitten
Sodium (1) - Roukanken

Not voting: Anthony, Nietz, Angel Milk

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #416 on:** September 21, 2009, 01:00:18 AM »

Quote from: Serpentarius on September 21, 2009, 12:49:10 AM

However, if Angel Milk is scum, that would virtually clear Suwako, and sink my theory. So, as far as infolynches go, Angel Milk is superior to Suwako.

How does an Angel Milk lynch clear Suwako, precisely? I'm missing this one.

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As to the likelihood of two scum trains running side by side, it's statistically unlikely, but only in the sense that a randomly chosen bandwagon is statistically unlikely to yield a scum flip. Considering how flagrantly Suwako had just brushed everyone off, I would've been more surprised if he didn't draw a bunch of kneejerk votes, regardless of his alignment. I don't think that the Suwako wagon suddenly shooting up was a scummy development. If Suwako flips town, then the people who jumped on the wagon late may well have been doing so to save VgameT, but I don't really think that Suwako will flip town in the first place, so the point is moot.

The point is that wagons are not chosen randomly. If VgT was sitting on a lot of votes then scum would've jumped at the chance to find someone else to attack, and after the Suwako case emerged they would have flown on. It's the timing that makes it look sort of weird - the fact that there are 4 straight Suwako votes when before he'd been on nothing. Feels awfully co-ordinated. (I'll note though that they apparently didn't choose Anthony as an alternate lynch, which is very interesting in terms of what it reads into his affiliation...)

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #417 on:** September 21, 2009, 01:13:56 AM »

EBWOP: What irritates me about this post is you just say 'I don't think Suwako suddenly getting four straight votes is suspicious' and don't go into any detail about WHY.

Serp · « **Reply #418 on:** September 21, 2009, 02:28:54 AM »

Quote from: Roukanken

How does an Angel Milk lynch clear Suwako, precisely? I'm missing this one.

Firstly, the fact that Angel Milk was late on the Suwako wagon - since a VgameT lynch was looking more plausible, and if he really did have a choice between bussing him or Suwako, it'd be foolish not to jump on VgameT to get the towncred for swinging the lynch towards scum, instead of incurring suspicion for trying to swing the town away from scum (and towards another scum, but we wouldn't know that). I don't expect that Angel Milk would think all this through, but if he's bussing anyone in the first place, it'd only be due to his scumbuddies' advice.

More recently, Suwako is the one who led the charge on Angel Milk today, when he could easily have gone after several others, which means that both of them have made attempts to get each other lynched. That's pretty strong evidence against scumbuddiship.

Quote from: Roukanken

EBWOP: What irritates me about this post is you just say 'I don't think Suwako suddenly getting four straight votes is suspicious' and don't go into any detail about WHY.

Only three votes - yours was there in the first place, though you confirmed it after Suwako's post. And let me put it this way: When you saw Suwako's post, the first thing you did was decide that he was scummiest. If you can excuse yourself doing so, then why do you think it's strange for three more people, among those who saw it in between your post and UncertainKitten's combo breaker, to decide that it made Suwako scummiest too?

Affinity · « **Reply #419 on:** September 21, 2009, 02:44:07 AM »

I don't like how Rou is talking about '4 straight votes' on Suwako from an outsider's point of view when, uhh, in fact he has been the first one to vote Suwako anyways. Previous post really just screams arrogance and echoing what Kilga said blindly without any real analysis on his part of the story at all. Considering this post he made, where he questions why Suwako is town, makes his views seem ephremeral and contradictory. Using that to question Serp is also quite bad of him.

Furthermore, pesco is right in that Rou hasn't really been scumhunting. More of passive questioning and defending, and the content he puts out is disproportionate to the number of posts he made. Also, absolutely no comment on Sodium's suspicion list and such, making the vote seem like a placeholder for opportunistic jumping. All of this, added on to UK's case, as well as the very hypocrtical 'scumhunt like I do' prod to Sodium makes him very suspicious and worthy of vote.

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##Vote: Roukanken