Author Topic: Umineko Mafia - Day 4  (Read 67768 times)

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #480 on: July 29, 2009, 01:45:59 PM »
Great Wall of China, Unesco would be proud, etc.

@Carthrat
Wait, you think I kept NF as confirmed townie the whole time until he was lynched? After Day 2 I threw out that idea due to "HAI GUIZE, I WAS BLOCKED". If he were confirmed townie imo, then I wouldn't have said I was cool with the NF modkill either. Now, it turned out he was block by Nietz who saved him at the same time, but yeah.
Pesco was a combination of what I thought, and guts. =V

@Serp
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF? Then you meta clear Roukan, instead of citing, his general pro-town actions. lolwut? I like how you say that Zakeri's conduct implicates me as scumbuddy without any reasons. =3

Longer post later, probably. I was just skimming posts to make this post.

If Day 4 continutes like this, we could make a text based VoWG simulation!

Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #481 on: July 29, 2009, 02:00:25 PM »
Hmm woah omgus to the max is going down here, okay. I like how Serp basically goes 'yeah whatever partners with Zak are more plausible' and then doesn't elaborate at all, since at this stage if you're confident enough to slam a vote down you should be confident to have some ideas on pairings, too. Not that Zak is really any better in this regard, but it didn't occur to me until Serp mentioned his non-opinion there.

Serp: Already answered, you say... if you mean here then all I see is a core difference between us in what makes a legitimate lynch, and it's not easing my concern at all.

As for my case on Sodium, consider how he took pesco and NF as confirmed town at different stages. Remember that mafia is a game about an uninformed and uncertain majority vs. knowledgable minority (i.e. scum.) The minority here knows alignments and can make that judgement with certainty, which is how his posts read. How can you not at least see the thrust of it?

Zakeri: Can you explain how you went from 'this is probably an F11 setup and here is what will probably happen' to 'NF is likely scum rar die?' back in day 2?

Sodium: No, but I find it likely you were trying to cover for yourself after the fact? What kind of question is that, seriously?

Pairingwise myself, I'm considering Serp/Sodium or Sodium/Zakeri at present, and I'm not sure why people are so quick to disregard the latter. The way I see it, Sodium loses and risks virtually nothing either hyping Zak's modkill (which is a modkill and outside his control; basically if it happens it happens) or voting him afterwards, which I've already spoken about. The abrupt fight between Serp/Zak right now is making me eliminate the possibility of them being buddies on the spot, though, and I am thinking it's likely one of 'em is scum.

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #482 on: July 29, 2009, 02:10:57 PM »
Wait, what? I was hyping Zakeri's modkill? I was pointing out that Zakeri had been gone for an extremely long time, and was going to be modkilled at that rate. Why the hell would I hype a modkill? The game would've became a trainwreck right there(not relevant to my interests) if Zakeri was modkilled.

And yeah, I'm writting my post now. Might take a while though. =V

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #483 on: July 29, 2009, 02:39:06 PM »
@Serp
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF?

I'll be generous and assume you just skimmed over my post on the same page where I outlined my case against Zakeri and clearly named him as my preferred case.  I made my case on Zakeri, then he jumped on me with a really flimsy reason.  That makes his the OMGUS, whether I had placed my vote on him or not.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
Then you meta clear Roukan, instead of citing, his general pro-town actions.

You also skimmed the part where I said I was going over LyLo conduct only in that part.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
I like how you say that Zakeri's conduct implicates me as scumbuddy without any reasons. =3

If I have to put all the accumulated relevant information to my case in a single post for you to acknowledge it, you can't blame me for making walls of text.  See previous posts on that page, again.  He's been revving his chainsaw all game on your behalf.

Quote from: Carthrat
Hmm woah omgus to the max is going down here, okay. I like how Serp basically goes 'yeah whatever partners with Zak are more plausible' and then doesn't elaborate at all, since at this stage if you're confident enough to slam a vote down you should be confident to have some ideas on pairings, too. Not that Zak is really any better in this regard, but it didn't occur to me until Serp mentioned his non-opinion there.

Well, I did mention Sodium several times already in my initial case against Zakeri. :V  I'm less certain about it, of course.  Zakeri's flighty conduct and the lack of a serious bandwagon against him at any point means that I can't rule anyone out, but if I had to set down today's and tomorrow's lynches at this moment, I'd say Zakeri and then Sodium.

Quote from: Carthrat
Already answered, you say... if you mean here then all I see is a core difference between us in what makes a legitimate lynch, and it's not easing my concern at all.

Dorian made four, count 'em, four posts out of RVS, and all of them were extremely low on content.  Of those, two have notably scummy content, and two are total cop-outs.  I'm not sure what more you can ask for.  Sure, we could pull up more scummy quotes from Donut or Nuke, but that's only because they put out more posts to analyze!  What Dorian put out there was bad, in itself, and the fact that he could be expected to stay a non-contributer right up into LyLo was a factor alongside that.

Quote from: Carthrat
As for my case on Sodium, consider how he took pesco and NF as confirmed town at different stages. Remember that mafia is a game about an uninformed and uncertain majority vs. knowledgable minority (i.e. scum.) The minority here knows alignments and can make that judgement with certainty, which is how his posts read. How can you not at least see the thrust of it?

It's not that I don't see the thrust of it, it's that it's just of such incredibly small magnitude compared to what Zakeri has put out there.  You're falling into the same trap Roukanken is - picking apart the little inconsistencies in wording while leaving the big unexplained opinion swings untouched.  For example, Sodium's words regarding Nuke were "somewhat of a confirmed townie," which is a contradiction, but he was clearly trying to say "he looks townish" and just screwed up his wording.  That sort of slip-up can reveal a scum mindset, yes - as I said on D3, I didn't find the initial points against Sodium compelling, but I found his reaction to pressure scummy.  That just doesn't compare with Zakeri's conduct, which is scummy in itself.  I get frustrated when people don't seem to be seeing the same stuff I am.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
And yeah, I'm writting my post now. Might take a while though. =V

Be sure to actually read my points this time.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #484 on: July 29, 2009, 03:43:20 PM »
@Serp:
I know that you made a case on him. You're still OMGUSing him, as he made a case on you. Seriously, 1 of the reasons you're both voting each other because...you're voting each other. How in anyway does that make any sort of sense? You may have a had a case on him, but then when he voted you, you voted him.

Also, the reason your case on Dorian sucked was because you were assuming that Dorian wouldn't ever do anything useful, get killed later, or be replaced. Someone already pointed this out. When he did get replaced(by me), you didn't do shit to continue on with your suspicion of Dorian/me, until now, because you see a supposed link between me and Zakeri. I don't buy the "I DIDN'T SEE ANYTHING SCUMMY" anymore, as you've shown that you've noticed stuff from me that you find suspicious. You're also revolving EVERYTHING around Zakeri right now(tunneling).

You cleared Roukan with meta. You disagreed with what Roukan is doing first, but then you said "he's doing what he always does". That is meta.

@Zakeri:
Nice, you OMGUS Serp, citing something he did Day 1, with little outside of Day 1.

Oh yeah, then you randomly say that Dorian's too scummy to be scum comment was town-like.*facedesk* You then basically say what Affinity's been saying all game. "Dorian brought up good original points".

@Carthrat:
I did think Zakeri was scummy for most of the game. It's just that Day 2 was NF GETTING MODKILLED ALL DISCUSSION STOP, and Day 3 was PESCO, DIE!!! I had almost no time to actually say anything, and when I did, SURPRISE! IT WAS BADLY TIMED.

Zakeri, Serp are the two I find scummy now, but I doubt that they're a scum pair, as they're trying to rip each other's necks out.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #485 on: July 29, 2009, 05:44:05 PM »
Quote from: Serp
Point taken, but, uh, I hope that doesn't mean you're going to refuse to comment on the cases against individual players.
I have no intention of doing that, but the problem is that as we're standing right now everyone seems to have their own case that they'll refuse to budge on. By asking people 'OK, you have your suspect but who are they working with?' we get people to consider other players, plus otherwise we'll be arguing little points until the end of time.

Something I'll say here since I just noticed it - as soon as I mention that he's said nothing about Serp, Sodium suddenly does a 180 and starts screaming ZOMG SERP IS TOTALLY SCUM. >_>

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Oh yeah, then you randomly say that Dorian's too scummy to be scum comment was town-like.*facedesk* You then basically say what Affinity's been saying all game. "Dorian brought up good original points".
Except no, that's not what he means at all. And by the way. congrats on pulling another 180 on your opinion of Dorian.
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Also, Dorian's posts were shit. There, happy? I was trying to give reasons to why they were shit(while not using that word), such as him being a newbie, and the reasons that he posted, but the posts were completely useless(WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY) and/or vague("that", what the fuck is "that"?) and/or BAD(TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM). If this isn't what you're looking for, PLEASE , tell me what you are looking for. Either way, I get the short end of the stick here.
Why are you suddenly agreeing with Affinity's statement that Dorian was making good points when you were saying exactly the opposite back on Day 3?

Looking at the case on Zakeri:
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This is his first serious post of the game.  In it, he says that he thinks Donut is blatantly lying about his voting motives, and that that "might" be scummy.  Follows that with points against several people, but in this post he unvotes and doesn't put that vote on anyone else.  Flighty.
This point is accepted against Zak, but 'blatantly lying' feels like misrep here. Townies would also want to avoid an argument they couldn't win mainly because it achieves nothing for Town, so avoiding an argument isn't necessarily a scumtell.

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What gets me is the way that he brings up a bunch of scummy quotes against Pesco, then suddenly backs off, while saying in the same post that he's not going to make the "mistake of defending Pesco again."  And who does he go after?  The claimed cop.  Am I the only one that sees this as a bad thing on D1?  We had other good cases and little to lose by letting him stick around another day.
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Post 123 - Seeing Rou's Comments, Rou is starting to sound like an Angry house Wife. Pesco is beginning to redeam himself by trying to explain his thought process, and since I can see how Town Pesco can act the way he did, I'm willing to back off for now.
This is what we call reasoning, Serp. Zak was doing a post-by-post, UK-style, so as he went on he started to comprehend where Pesco was coming from.
Plus it isn't like Zak was the only one who kept his vote on NF after the copclaim - Pesco, anyone?

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Note that in voting for Donut, he cites two posts that both happened before he said he was entirely unhappy with the Donut wagon.  This is another really important point.  Inconsistency is not a town tell.  He did a complete 180 on his stance.  He also goes back to defending Pesco.  >_>
He explains that the reason he switched his opinion is because Donut's vote is still on Dorian, and the question he'd asked in he previous post had gone unanswered.

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A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium here.
- Most likely a ninja, so the 'post-hammer' point is moot
- You're misinterpreting the point of the post - it isn't meant to defend Dorian, it was meant to show that Donut was basically everything Dorian did but worse.

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The point of interest here is the kneejerk chainsaw against me.
What chainsaw? I have no idea what you're referring to here.

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Effectively says here "I have a good reason to vote Serp in my own head, but I'm not going to share it with you."
Besides how he didn't approve of your vote on Dorian ahead of Donut?

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Here he aims to explain his train of thought.  In so doing, he blatantly mischaracterizes my point against Dorian, points out his own self-contradiction with a weak attempt at justification, and completely backtracks on Affinity.
I accept this point.

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Back to being anti-Pesco here, now that it's D3.
He gave reasoning based on what Pesco had done on D3 (meta and asking to be lynched), so I don't see why this is a particularly bad point.

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More defense of Sodium here and here.  He seems to be trying to set up Roukanken for a LyLo lynch.  Also more mischaracterization of me.  He continues to defend Sodium's defense of Dorian for the next few posts.
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As for Sodium, I think he's opening himself up to be victimized by Roukanken and Pesco.
Wow, that's the most aggressive defense I've ever seen.
Though I will admit some of his later posts are overly protective of Sodium.

As a general conclusion, I don't feel the case against Zakeri is as strong as you make it out to be. There are a few points here or there, but some of these are just blatant misrep disguised as an attack ('Hey, look! He changed his opinion over the span of two days given new information onto a player who pretty much everyone agreed was scummy! That's bad, right?')

Also, on the last point of your attack:
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Scum knows who's Town, so they know that all the cases against people other than themselves are wrong.  Rather than evaluating cases based on how valid they look, Scum only care about getting enough mislynches to win.
Couldn't you argue that Sodium is equally guilty of this given his defense of Pesco yesterday? He went from attacking him to suddenly deciding 'OH WAIT YOU HAVE A JOKE ROLE UNVOTE PLOX', and went on to insist that he only hammered because the majority wanted Pesco dead. Flighty voting later in the game is worse than flighty voting early on, surely.

(In other news, please stop using https in your quotes, Serp. I need to edit the damn URL every time. >_>)

tl;dr Not that impressed by the Zak case, still have Sodium as my preferred lynch. Still waiting to see more people analyse potential scumpairs.

I'm surprised that there are no ninjas in residence as I write this. :V

Sodium

  • pew pew lasers
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #486 on: July 29, 2009, 06:53:34 PM »
Wait, what? Roukan, I was talking about what Zakeri said. Zakeri said " but still he(Dorian) brought up important and original points that added to the discussion.", and I was noting that it was similar to what Affinity was saying for essentially the whole game.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #487 on: July 29, 2009, 07:03:18 PM »
Wait, what? Roukan, I was talking about what Zakeri said. Zakeri said " but still he(Dorian) brought up important and original points that added to the discussion.", and I was noting that it was similar to what Affinity was saying for essentially the whole game.
Then what's your point here? Do you not like this point because the source itself is wrong, or is it wrong because Zakeri isn't allowed to agree with Affinity for some reason?

Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #488 on: July 29, 2009, 07:11:39 PM »
Responce post to Serp, mostly.

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Because Pesco's lynch would only be really informative if he flipped scum,
So the fact that Pesco might have been town is enough to excuse trying to gain Information for the town? The main goal of town for the first few days is the gain information, not mislynches.

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and in that same post you cite, I pointed out that nothing in Pesco's initial behavior seemed scummy to me.  Yes, I noted that he was being a little evasive, but as I said, I didn't consider that sufficient reason to go after him.
You see, this is why waffling is scummy. In this post, you sat on the Fence, stating that Pesco gives you a bad feeling while initially saying he's not caught on your radar. This lets you decide later what your opinion in that post was. I see this as a backtracking attempt.

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Why is lynching a slightly scummy player a better move than sacrificing a useless inactive one (who may well be scum himself, I remind you) and giving everyone involved more time to either redeem themselves or cement their scumminess?
Because lynching the slightly scummy player will give more information than lynching the guy that has yet to produce solid opinions on anyone. If the scummy player turns up town, we still can determine who is scum by bandwagon analysis on that person. If he was scum, then we're that much closer to winning, since we can relate everything he's said to others knowing he had scummy intentions. If we lynched the inactive person, and he winds up Scum, then we still have little information, despite the having one less scum, and if he turned up town, then We would have NO information and a mislynch.

I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.

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You acknowledge what I was trying to say, and then you deliberately misinterpret that same statement to mean something completely different.  I'm not even sure what you're trying to do here.
Am I the one misinterpreting it? What I'm trying to do is I'm trying to present how the post looks.

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If anything, only the opposite position makes sense - lynching Nuke and letting Dorian live.  After all, Nuke has been really scummy, while Dorian doesn't have much credit either way.
You state in the very part that I presented that the only possible way you can understand not lynching Dorian was if we decided to Lynch Nuke instead. Why did you say that? Why did you say that our reason for not voting Dorian means we should be voting for Nuke?

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And then you acknowledge that there's nothing wrong with weighting scumminess with other factors.  So you don't mind putting more emphasis on lurky players, yet your whole case on me is based on your dislike of how much emphasis I put on inactivity?  You really think that's the strongest case on anyone, now that we're in LyLo?
You're missing the point. The point is I don't disagree with how much emphasis you put on Lurkiness. The point is that you don't seem to put any emphasis on Scummy posting. The following point I made in my previous post covers why I say this: It wasn't until the bottom of the post you say that you're convinced Dorian's inactivity made him scummy enough to be lynched that you actually come up with reasons why Dorian looked scummy. The Premises came after the Conclusion, which as I've said is not scumhunting. More importantly, you never got around to presenting what Dorian has done besides be inactive until Kiro prodded you on that point.

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I cited two posts, yes.  He made four post-RVS posts in total.  A full 50% of his posts were scummy.
Here's a Science Question:
Eight People are given an experimental drug that cures somethingorother.
Half of them receive pills that don't work, but nobody knows they don't work. Placebo pills, to be exact.
Out of the four given the real Medication, two of them were successfully treated. Out of the Four given the fake medication, Two of them were successfully Treated.
Does the pill work or not?

The Answer:
Spoiler:
You don't have enough testing data to determine if the pills worked or not.
You're point that 50% of Dorian's posts looked scummy means exactly as much as the above point about the pills working 50% of the time. It was apparent more than Anything that Dorian needed more time to produce posts before we could accurately tell if he was scummy or not.

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I'd like to remind you that I was wrong in that game.
I'd also like to remind you that Town won in that game. People were able to determine that Sodium, who replaced in for Mr. Alert, was in fact Scum. Also noted that Sodium replaced Dorian in this game, and since then you claim to have had the general feeling he's been town. Do you still believe that Inactivity is given so much of a pass that it ruin's town's chances of winning the game?

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After all, scum just needs to rack up a certain number of mislynches to win the game.  It doesn't matter how those mislynches are obtained.
It does Matter how these Mislynches are Obtained. Like say, if someone was being inactive Day 1, it would be easier to convince the town to lynch that person before he comes back or gets replaced by someone who puts more effort into the game. Like Carthrat and I said before, People like Dorian are much more transparent the longer they stay alive and active in the game. They make for very good day one mislynches, but as time passes, it gets harder and harder to lynch them (Mainly because their 50% scummy post ratio tends to drop further and further towards the 20% ratio.)

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Well, here we have Zakeri ignoring all my points against him and instead responding with pure OMGUS.
Wait, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Ignoring all of your points prevent it from being OMGUS? Doesn't OMGUS spawn from reading through all of your points, and then voting for you for making those points?

And yes, I admit I've been much much more lax on you than I should of. I stated in 274 that I wanted to vote for you by the end of Day 1, and I'm certain by now that even with all of the day one bandwagons that would have been my best choice. I feel this point mainly falls onto Nuke and Pesco's shoulders for being more a distraction from Scum than any amount of help.

Speaking of the case against me, I guess I should read through it at least once. I'd do that next post.

Cut by Rou: I've been thinking about Sodium as a mafioso, but I'm generally not seeing it, even after all of these points against him. I'm still convinced Serpentarius was voting Dorian with intent on making him a Mislynch, which would in turn mean Sodium is actually a townie. I'm certain there's bussing involved in a Serp/Buddies relationship going on, Mainly in that Affinity would benefit most from disagreeing with Serpentarius's Reason for voting Dorian. The only way I could see Serp being Sodium's scum buddy is if he knew Dorian was going to replace in and wanted to give Sodium credit in case Serpentarius was lynched. I see Serp/Cath and Serp/Rou as being possible, but not likely based on the evidence I've gathered so far.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #489 on: July 29, 2009, 07:33:33 PM »
I'm still convinced Serpentarius was voting Dorian with intent on making him a Mislynch, which would in turn mean Sodium is actually a townie.
Why then was Serp so quiet around Sodium, even after saying 'I AM GOING TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOU'?

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I'm certain there's bussing involved in a Serp/Buddies relationship going on, Mainly in that Affinity would benefit most from disagreeing with Serpentarius's Reason for voting Dorian.
Quote from: Affinity
I seem to be getting good vibes from Serp; would need more time to reread him.
Not really seeing how he would benefit after saying something like this about scum in Lylo.

Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #490 on: July 29, 2009, 09:37:23 PM »
Let me start out by saying I'd prefer it if you used numbers, if only because all of your links seem to be broken.

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This is his first serious post of the game.  In it, he says that he thinks Donut is blatantly lying about his voting motives, and that that "might" be scummy.  Follows that with points against several people, but in this post he unvotes and doesn't put that vote on anyone else.  Flighty.

He thinks better of it half an hour later and posts this, voting Pesco and saying that Donut strikes him as Town.

Do you honestly think it takes me only ten seconds to make a post as long as that? What do you think I was doing in that half an hour? I held my vote so I could get a clearer look at what I was saying, then voted Pesco. I don't see how I was being "Flighty" in that post as you called it, unless your definition of flighty is "Not voting on complete whim."

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The post here is a complete mess.
All the better to make it seem like I'm contradicting myself, isn't it?

Yes it's a complete mess, because it's me writing down what I think as I go along. I made my non-vote of Nuke before reading his copclaim, and at the bottom of the post, I explicitly stated that I'm not voting for Nuke because of the Cop-claim, and the he was the only one I felt deserved lynching at the moment. I also stated at the end of the post that I felt Pesco trying to explain his thought process was what made his opinion on donut seem less scummy - naming in that it's always easier to explain something that you think is the truth than something that you think is a lie. It's easier to mix up the details of a lie, and so people are much more vague when they know they're lying.

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He says his vote is effectively on Nuke, but then forgets that later in the post, when he says that he doesn't know where to take his vote.
This proves that you're trying to ignore the fact that I wasn't voting Nuke because he copclaimed. I said at the very point you mentioned that Nuke was the only one I felt comfy leaving my vote, and that I didn't because I agreed we should leave the cop a free pass for day one.

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and picks up his habit of defending Dorian Sodium Doridium.
I defended Dorian because I thought that your reasoning for lynching him was bad. My awkward defence of Sodium on day three comes from the bad memories I had while defending Dorian against you. It wasn't until I properly took the time to read through your argument like I did on page 15 that I realized WHY I thought Dorian was town. Namely that I've always had a feeling you were targeting him for scummy reasons and that I don't think You would Bus Dorian like that, especially if he was the only other scum buddy there.

Also in that point is where I brought up Dorian's "Original point" As Affinity and I keep putting it. Dorian called Nuke out for legitimate Scum Interest, just like I was pointing out on you in the same post you're prodding right now.

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Now, the infamous bandwagon swinging post here.
Congratulations on your first valid point against me. I've already said this when Kiro voted me for it on day two (Wait, why did you wait until today to complain about me so loudly? And you blame me for waiting this long to make a case on you.) And it's that at the time, I felt none of the day one bandwagons were good ones. I voted for Donut because as I said in that post, I felt he was least likely to be town or work for town interest. I felt that at the time, making no vote, or making a vote that wasn't on any of the bandwagons would be counterproductive. I also don't see how flipping the bandwagon away from Pesco makes me Scummy, since Pesco was Town, and Donut was just as likely to make things worse for the town as Pesco and Nuke did.

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A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium Attack Serpentarius here.
Fixed.

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The point of interest here is the kneejerk chainsaw against me.  I think that Zakeri was looking for a way to discredit me, but hadn't come up with anything, but forgot that he hadn't come up with anything when writing this post.
"Kneejerk Chainsaw"? "Looking for a way to discredit you"? Are you sure you're not doing that "I think he's scum, therefore this looks scummy" thing like you did with Dorian on day one? I don't see how my prodding you at the beginning of day two could be seen as inherently scummy on it's own merits.

As for my weird two posts, 274 and 281, I was maintaining that there was a good reason for targeting you, but then I made the mistake of trying to completely analyze Donut's wagon for scummy intent instead of actually exploring why I had such a strong gut feeling on you. I admit, it was a big mistake, and I admit, it might wind up getting me lynched and us losing the game. And yes, I did catch egg on my face for my case against affinity. Calling me out for Backtracking on affinity on that point however says that you think being acting Sure of yourself is more important than finding out what the truth is.

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Back to being anti-Pesco here, now that it's D3.
In my defense, Pesco started off day 3 by acting really scummy (316).

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He seems to be trying to set up Roukanken for a LyLo lynch.
What exactly about those posts do I look like I'm setting things up for a Rou lynch? You can't just say it so distantly, and then let others go "Oh, yeah, I kind of see it."

---

Quote from: Rou
Why then was Serp so quiet around Sodium, even after saying 'I AM GOING TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOU'?
Serp Ended his reign against Dorian by saying that since Sodium replaced in, his main reason for lynching Dorian (That Dorian, if we waited until Lylo to lynch him, would lose us the game for flipping town) is no longer Valid. He then continues to Ignore Sodium as a possible lynch until people started jumping on Sodium for for his interactions with Pesco.

His Excuse for not mentioning Sodium is that he feels Sodium is town, and doesn't want to tell that to Scum so that Scum wouldn't nightkill Sodium, but then in that same post he makes a grand leap for the Fence saying His recent actions were sort of scummy, and provides no evidence for why he thought Sodium was town in the first place. Now, he's back to being certain Sodium is scum (After me of course) Which reads to me that He's not really that heartbroken over if Sodium gets lynched or not.

In short, his recent attacks on Sodium are as opportunistic as his attack on Dorian was, which is why I don't think they're a likely scumpair.

Quote
Not really seeing how he would benefit after saying something like this about scum in Lylo.
The benefit mostly comes from spending most of his time opposing the Dorian/Sodium lynch while trying to remain neutral looking on Dorian/Sodium. This basically lets me take all of the Flak for opposing Serpentarius, while Affinity can get some town cred if Serp was lynched.

I agree with the point you're trying to make, though.

As for Sodium's case on me:

Quote
Donut vote at Day 1(little reason, the wagon swinger)
Other various Day points from Day 2(Kiro's 250 is nice)
I know I had put myself into a bad position there, but whether I was voted Donut or Pesco, I could be accused of the same wagon swinging point. Unless of course Sodium was actually scum. In the end, it was basically just a huge gamble in my part, but I took it anyway knowing I'd probably lose.

Quote
General lurkiness(RL probably the cause, so this isn't really major or anything)
"Oh hey Serp, post more, while some other people and I haven't posted all that much either"
Posting not much after coming back from 48 hours without posting
I still felt Serpentarius was attempting to phantom his way through day three. Serpentarius's latest post when I said that was of him saying he's endorses the Modkill on me, while prefer Pesco's lynch to go through. He hadn't said too much outside of his first post, either. And yes, I'm aware I'm being a hypocrate.

Quote
"If x were scum" WIFOM
Again, the point was that I felt town was more likely to do "x" than scum was, but that's not how everyone saw it, I guess.

Quote
+Defending me for no reason(forgot this at the time of that post)
+Zakeri didn't even say anything about my vote on him(new point)
Umm, yeah. Again, I was working off mostly my gut when I defended you, since I'm still hooked up on what looks like Serpentarius trying to get a mislynch out of Dorian. And Finally, I've rectified that last point now.

Affinity

  • hoho
  • ... but I have promises to keep.
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #491 on: July 30, 2009, 03:11:45 AM »
oh gosh what is wrong with all of you

@Zakeri:

Zakeri's defense is not satisfactory on the account that many of his points seem to be along the lines of "oh yes, but WHAT ABOUT THIS".  I don't like how he keeps admitting that he made mistakes, and yet he attempts to explain himself around into implicating Serp for what he said.  Also, some logical fallacies such as the 'pill' example he gave is completely ludicrous; Mafia is not an exact science, and if 50% of a person's posts is scummy, it's best to conclude that that person is scummier than everyone else. Thus, your defense of Sodium is completely horrible.  Zakeri accusing Serp of backtracking is also ahha considering his defences. 

Also, Serp's vote is not OMGUS since he already had a case beforehand.  Zakeri, due to the faulty defense, is my secondary lynch for today.

---

@Sodium

I also hate Sodium for not being very clear in his views, as Rou has described.  Also

Quote
WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY

I would be happy if you could point how exactly this is the case.  No one else pointed out what he pointed out.

Besides doing a donut 180 on Serp, you also go ahead and accuse both Serp and Zakeri of OMGUSing each other, which is a logical impossibility.  You also seem to misunderstand the concept of OMGUS entirely; you cite them voting each other as such and completely refuse to mention anything else they have said against each other, which is what is important. 

You also dance on the issue of Dorian; accusing Serp for voting him on D1 and saying that everything he did on D1 was horrible, allowing you to accuse both Serp and me and Zakeri rather weirdly.  Lastly, you misinterpreted what Zakeri said quite badly. 

Mafia is not a spectator spot, which makes you my primary lynch for today, due to numerous inconsistencies, unless you answer things satisfactorily.  Thought you were okay for your past day actions, but today really seems faulty.  It really seems that you are trying to both Zak nd Serp everyone by jumping between fences without bothering to taste the grass.

##Vote: Sodium

Sodium

  • pew pew lasers
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #492 on: July 30, 2009, 04:22:55 AM »
A for Affinity Block
Quote
Quote
WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY
I would be happy if you could point how exactly this is the case.  No one else pointed out what he pointed out.
...Well that was stupid of me. =V It really should've been NF as I was refering to Dorian's 73, where he repeats what several have already said. In my defense of my stupid ass name mixing up, I was somewhat frustrated when I posted that.

Oh, and what he pointed out was too vague/confusing to be of any use until you clarified. =V

Quote
Besides doing a donut 180 on Serp, you also go ahead and accuse both Serp and Zakeri of OMGUSing each other, which is a logical impossibility.  You also seem to misunderstand the concept of OMGUS entirely; you cite them voting each other as such and completely refuse to mention anything else they have said against each other, which is what is important.
Serp makes an argument against Zak
Zak make an argument against Serp, votes Serp
Serp goes WTF? and then votes Zakeri, while claiming Zakeri's vote was OMGUS. That's the OMGUS vote from Serp
So yeah, while it's logically impossible, Serp apparently thinks that Zakeri was OMGUSing(not on a vote, but a case)(despite it having a case with it) him, and responds by voting him, which might as well be OMGUS because that was the trigger reason.

Quote
You also dance on the issue of Dorian; accusing Serp for voting him on D1 and saying that everything he did on D1 was horrible
What I find ironic here is that you were berating someone previously for only looking at the votes instead of the reason for the votes. The reason I didn't like Serp's D1 vote on Dorian was the reason, which was originally "Lynch Dorian, he's a lurker omfg". It then evolved throughout the game, but then there was him "keeping an eye on me", and proceeding to do NOTHING about it.

Quote
Thought you were okay for your past day actions, but today really seems faulty.
You pointed out something I wrote a couple days ago in Day 3. Why didn't you point it out previously? =3 I agree that today seems really faulty, perhaps I need more rest.
---
B for Roukanken Block. B looks enough like an R. =V
I like how you're pointing out minute points despite worrying that that's what we're going to be doing all of Day 4.
Oh, and I was just pointing out how similar what Zakeri was saying compared to what Affinity was saying. It was just an observation.
---
C for Carthrat Block.
...Woosh! He's basically managed to not get suspected on the whole day. I think. I'll do this later. >_>
---
D for Zakeri Block. uh, D=Z in ROTwhatever. Too lazy to count right now.
You sure do enjoy trying to DESTROY Serp. A common theme in your decision making process is "how will this let me implicate Serp"? Not to say what you're completely wrong, but you really are tunneling.

let's see...
Day 2 case stuff: You already explained your actions, I didn't like them, nothing really changed.
Lurkiness & hypocrisy point: I see your point with Serp, but that doesn't really help with the hypocrisy, and you've been focusing way too much on Serp for a while. Lurkiness is pretty much non-existent currently, so yeah.
WIFOM: Argued to death, still don't like, but no real point in arguing any further
Defending me: ...So you're saying that you did it on gut, and to foil Serp's plans? XD
---
E for Edible Block
Obvscum. Probably has some sort of twisted relation to Donut, as Donuts are Edible.

So I gtg sleep. Can't finish this post, and I doubt you'd want a (larger) wall anyways. I'll finish tomorrow. Also, note that I'll probably elaborate on some of the previous people. >_> I'm tired right now.

Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #493 on: July 30, 2009, 06:52:22 AM »
Quote
Also, some logical fallacies such as the 'pill' example he gave is completely ludicrous; Mafia is not an exact science, and if 50% of a person's posts is scummy, it's best to conclude that that person is scummier than everyone else.
You break my Heart, Affinity. I thought you would know better.

Saying 50% of someone's posts is scummy means jack shit when they posted four times in the first half of day one and at least one of those times can be interpreted as null or even as town. I could start a game and make a post saying "Go Scum!" Another post randomly voting for the Mod, and then make a PBPA of everything that happened for the entire day and why I feel "x" would be the town's best lynch for the day, and still at least 66% of my posting would be scummy. Scum can go ahead and say "50% of what he posted was scummy" When really, he's only posted two things that could be interpreted as scummy.

To compare, I had more bulletpoints against Donut, Pesco, and Nuke half way through day one than Serp ever had on Dorian.

---
Rou was Right, I feel that going over the Smaller points will just lead us in circles, so I'm going to look over my case and present what I think are the bigger points.

I would like everyone to post their reasons for their vote (Including Serp and Affinity) in a format like Sodium's and the following

Why I don't like Serp:
-Choosing to vote for the Inactive Player instead of Voting for what he thinks will bring Information to the town.
-Finds points where Dorian acted Scummy only after Kiro had asked, and After Serp said he was convinced Dorian was lynchworthy.
-Uses an "Either, Or" False Dilemma to gather more votes onto Dorian. (Either we go my way and lynch Dorian, or the opposite way and lynch the cop claim which is a bad idea.)
-In general, doesn't seem to put value in lynching someone who acts Scummy.

Also, Sodium, about the OMGUS point... I still like to deny that my entire case and vote on Serpentarius was based purely off the fact that he made a case on me. :V

Serp

  • It's all about overwhelming force and irresistible style
  • And in a pinch, style can slide
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #494 on: July 30, 2009, 10:10:42 AM »
Whew, lots of stuff to reply to.  That's the downside of sleeping when everyone else is awake.  Let me try to avoid building this wall too big.  Cutting down on quote blocks helps.

Regarding the supposed OMGUS, Affinity is correct to point out that since I already had Zakeri in my sights, it can't really be called OMGUS.  If his post had completely ignored my case on him and then made a bad case against anyone else, I still would've voted him.

Regarding the supposed reasons my case on Dorian sucked:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
you were assuming that Dorian wouldn't ever do anything useful

Pretty justified.  In fact, you yourself admitted that what he had put out there was horrible.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
get killed later

Why would scum kill an inactive?  Have you ever seen it happen?

Quote from: EX Na2O2
or be replaced

I don't like to count on this.  It's good (for the sake of the game - not necessarily for the sake of the town) that you showed up, but how was I supposed to know that someone was ready to play, but hadn't signed up, on Day 1 even?

Regarding my silence regarding Sodium after I said I'd be keeping an eye on him, I really didn't notice anything especially scummy 'till late Day 3, and by then I was already on the edge of my seat for Pesco's flip and putting together my Zakeri case.

Regarding the supposed Roukanken meta clear, I didn't intend for it to be read as a clear, and I do consider it to be a (rather minor) point against him.  I just meant that it was to be expected.

Regarding Roukanken's proposed method of looking at pairs rather than individuals, that avoids getting bogged down on minor points, sure.  But there are only a few really clear cut cases of one player going out of his way to defend another.  Indeed, I cited Zakeri's constant defense of Sodium in my case against him.  We should be looking for connections, but only as a part of a scummy whole.  And we should be responding to the points against us because to do otherwise is to brush it off and hope people forget about it - in short, a scumtell.

Quote from: Roukanken
This point is accepted against Zak, but 'blatantly lying' feels like misrep here. Townies would also want to avoid an argument they couldn't win mainly because it achieves nothing for Town, so avoiding an argument isn't necessarily a scumtell.

If you've done nothing wrong, then you should be able to explain that.  Avoiding an argument because "I'm a townie and someone else having a point against me would therefore be bad for Town" is really, really weak and looks more like scummy ass-covering.  Though, Donut did flip Town, so I guess it's kind of moot at this point.

Regarding Zakeri's attempt to lynch the claimed cop, it was bad when Pesco did it, too.  Just 'cause townies sometimes show scumtells doesn't meant that the scumtells are worthless.  And I don't buy Zakeri's attempt to backtrack on his stance there - you held back your vote while giving every sign that you wanted him lynched.  Seems like you were hoping that anti-Nuke sentiment would boil over if you could convince a few other townies that they could speak out for a Nuke lynch too.

Regarding Zakeri's switch to Donut after being completely unsatisfied with that wagon before, I think you're being overly generous in taking his justification there.  And if he was really still unsatisfied with it and found my attack on Dorian so scummy, he should have said so.  I know I'm not raising a new point here - Zakeri himself admits that it was a bad move on his part, but it looks too much like justification after the fact.

Quote from: Roukanken
- You're misinterpreting the point of the post - it isn't meant to defend Dorian, it was meant to show that Donut was basically everything Dorian did but worse.

If this is so, then Zakeri would have to be affirming that Dorian's conduct was lynchworthy in the first place.  I have not gotten that impression from him at all.

Regarding my claim of Zakeri's kneejerk chainsaw, admittedly that only holds if Sodium is his scumbuddy.  To restate my point, I think Zakeri saw how I was going after Dorian, decided that the best way to forestall me would be by attacking me, but since I hadn't done anything scummy (which I maintain my vote on Dorian wasn't - debate scumminess weightings all you like, but my move was a valid one), he could only point a vague finger of suspicioin at me.

My point about Zakeri's flipflopping on Pesco is that it just seems so arbitrary.  Pesco's conduct was pretty consistent through the game.  I see Zakeri talking about how it gives him a town impression here, and a scum impression there, but I don't see any corresponding changes in Pesco's play.

Quote from: Roukanken
Couldn't you argue that Sodium is equally guilty of this given his defense of Pesco yesterday? He went from attacking him to suddenly deciding 'OH WAIT YOU HAVE A JOKE ROLE UNVOTE PLOX', and went on to insist that he only hammered because the majority wanted Pesco dead. Flighty voting later in the game is worse than flighty voting early on, surely.

Actually, yes, you're completely right about that.  When Sodium initially unvoted Pesco, I explained to him in my 368 why I thought that a flavor role wasn't enough reason to unvote.  He just kind of ignored that and kept on acting like he was unsatisfied with the Pesco lynch.  When I got back I sort of panicked over the impending Zakeri modkill and completely forgot about it.  I really should've picked up on that by now, since it's been mentioned multiple times this LyLo.  Maybe I've been tunneling on Zakeri a bit, but I still think my case on him has a lot more substance.  Sodium, why didn't you respond to that post?

Quote from: Zakeri
Because lynching the slightly scummy player will give more information than lynching the guy that has yet to produce solid opinions on anyone. If the scummy player turns up town, we still can determine who is scum by bandwagon analysis on that person. If he was scum, then we're that much closer to winning, since we can relate everything he's said to others knowing he had scummy intentions. If we lynched the inactive person, and he winds up Scum, then we still have little information, despite the having one less scum, and if he turned up town, then We would have NO information and a mislynch.

So then we should never ever lynch an inactive player because he'll never give information?  Doesn't that mean we just give them a free ticket to LyLo?

Quote from: Zakeri
I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.

The difference is that in LyLo, every townie player is vital.  There is no margin for error.  Scum are just one vote away from being able to fillibuster any lynchmob.  If that one vote is a lurker, or a player who says stuff like "too scummy to be scum," then the game really might as well be over.

Regarding the way I presented my priorities when voting Dorian, the scummy quotes were really painfully obvious and had already been beaten into the ground several times.  There was nothing more to be gained by explicitly referring to each of them.

Quote from: Zakeri
Quote
A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium Attack Serpentarius here.
Fixed.

You're redefining your actions after the fact based on whatever motive would make you look most Townie.  Especially egregious since you then dropped it and only picked it up again in LyLo.

Regarding your science analogy, you're right that there's not enough information for the experiment to be scientifically rigorous.  Therefore, I'd vote whatever board member advocated giving us such a small sample size be ousted from office.

I also kind of suspect Zakeri of advocating case summaries just because his case lends itself so much better to being summarized very very briefly. :V  The closest you're going to get to a case summary from me is my initial LyLo case on Zakeri where I went through the posts I found scummy in order.  For that matter, you're saying this at the same time that you keep trying to raise old points against me, several of which I just haven't directly responded to here simply because I've already dealt with them and I don't want to get bogged down in ever-growing quote walls any more than anyone else - are you trying to get me to ignore your bad points against me so that they'll stand unchallenged?
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #495 on: July 30, 2009, 10:53:57 AM »
B for Roukanken Block. B looks enough like an R. =V
I like how you're pointing out minute points despite worrying that that's what we're going to be doing all of Day 4.
How 'minute' is suddenly deciding that Serpentarius is the devil incarnate? You can't just dismiss a case by saying 'it's too picky' when it involves you throwing around your vote like there's no tomorrow.

Quote
Oh, and I was just pointing out how similar what Zakeri was saying compared to what Affinity was saying. It was just an observation.
In other words, IIoA. Nice work there.

Anyway, since I'm being asked for it.
Why I Don't Like Sodium:
- Very keen on voting Pesco D3, but suddenly screams STOP HE HAS A JOKE ROLE HE MUST BE TOWN and attacks Zakeri based on the content of TWO POSTS when Pesco had been pretty scummy from D1.
- Silence on Serp, immediately turning into outright assault as soon as it's mentioned
- IIoA EVERYWHERE
- Initial attempt to defend Dorian saying his posts were useful, before eventually saying 'Who am I kidding, it's absolute shit'.
- Likewise has more or less no comment on Affinity in any of his posts. Not mentioning people = Bad scumhumnting.

Thus I'm glad to place Sodium as my primary lynch today.

As for Zak...Oh God, what the hell is this. I'm reading through your last two walls and HOLY CRAP, YOU DEFINITELY FAILED THIS CRITICAL THINKING CLASS OF YOURS.
Quote
You're point that 50% of Dorian's posts looked scummy means exactly as much as the above point about the pills working 50% of the time. It was apparent more than Anything that Dorian needed more time to produce posts before we could accurately tell if he was scummy or not.
Uh, except that one of the reasons he was scummy to people was that he wasn't producing posts?

Quote
I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.
Except we'd ALSO be risking not getting more information from the three Townies we lynched earlier. Why is getting information from Dorian so much more important than anything else?

Quote
Saying 50% of someone's posts is scummy means jack shit when they posted four times in the first half of day one and at least one of those times can be interpreted as null or even as town. I could start a game and make a post saying "Go Scum!" Another post randomly voting for the Mod, and then make a PBPA of everything that happened for the entire day and why I feel "x" would be the town's best lynch for the day, and still at least 66% of my posting would be scummy. Scum can go ahead and say "50% of what he posted was scummy" When really, he's only posted two things that could be interpreted as scummy.
Oh God, where the hell do I begin with this. Where the HELL do I begin. Let's see.
- You automatically compare Dorian's 'scummy' posts to RVS, which is utter bull.
- Do you honestly think that on Day 1 ANYONE would try to use the line of reasoning 'His joke votes were scummy, I'm voting him'?

Quote
To compare, I had more bulletpoints against Donut, Pesco, and Nuke half way through day one than Serp ever had on Dorian.
Well, how many bulletpoints can you possibly make out of 'HE'S NOT FREAKING POSTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN UTTER CRAP'? Whatever happened to Quality Over Quantity?

I was initially unkeen to agree with Serp's Zak case given that the earlier points against him were somewhat lacking, but today he's pretty much coming apart at the seams. Reading these last few posts I'm beginning to wonder if this whole attack on Serp from Zak isn't a chainsaw to protect Sodium. Dammit, every single one of my other cases revolves around Sodium's flip one way or another. >_>

Carthrat

  • HITLER OF LURKERS
  • MEIN MAIDENKAMPF
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #496 on: July 30, 2009, 11:49:52 AM »
oh wow

Quote from: Sodium
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF?

Quote from: Sodium
@Zakeri:
Nice, you OMGUS Serp, citing something he did Day 1, with little outside of Day 1.

Quote from: Sodium
Serp makes an argument against Zak
Zak make an argument against Serp, votes Serp
Serp goes WTF? and then votes Zakeri, while claiming Zakeri's vote was OMGUS. That's the OMGUS vote from Serp
So yeah, while it's logically impossible, Serp apparently thinks that Zakeri was OMGUSing(not on a vote, but a case)(despite it having a case with it) him, and responds by voting him, which might as well be OMGUS because that was the trigger reason.

All those quotes are in consecutive order, and Sodium goes from 'SERP Omgused ZAK how dare you accuse zak of omgusing you' to 'ZAK you omgused SERP' back to 'It is ILLOGICAL to think that ZAK omgused SERP.'

The inconsistencies here are so rapid-fire that I'm now positive he's scum struggling to find something to say and not even really thinking about serious casemaking; even his latest post seems to be mostly drawn from the opinions of others.

For that matter, it's kinda rocked my belief that Sodium is buddies with one of Zak/Serp at this point... although the other options still seem less likely. Affinity has slammed a vote on him (makes pairing doubtful!) and that only leaves Rou to be a buddy, and at this point I doubt Rou's scum in general.

<->

Quote from: Serp
You're falling into the same trap Roukanken is - picking apart the little inconsistencies in wording while leaving the big unexplained opinion swings untouched.  For example, Sodium's words regarding Nuke were "somewhat of a confirmed townie," which is a contradiction, but he was clearly trying to say "he looks townish" and just screwed up his wording.  That sort of slip-up can reveal a scum mindset, yes - as I said on D3, I didn't find the initial points against Sodium compelling, but I found his reaction to pressure scummy.  That just doesn't compare with Zakeri's conduct, which is scummy in itself.  I get frustrated when people don't seem to be seeing the same stuff I am.

I don't get this. You're going 'I don't see your case. Ok, actually I do, and it's legitimate, but mine's still better because um yours is just details!' That's a bit different from 'there is no case', which is what I got from you earlier.

There's also this tidbit-
Quote from: Serp
So then we should never ever lynch an inactive player because he'll never give information?  Doesn't that mean we just give them a free ticket to LyLo?

An inactive player can lose that status by talking. A truly inactive player will also just get modkilled. Otherwise, they're forced to talk, forced to at least have some position on lynches, and it becomes much easier to suss out their alignment. It's very hard to do so accurate in day 1, but neccesity forces them to post more as time goes by. 'Let live on day 1' != 'Let live forever.'

I'm finding Zak's summary on Serp to be pretty on the money with regard to the twisted logic and the ignorance, which I've already mentioned. I really wish more people would take the time to just write a tl;dr version of their cases; Serp's reluctance to do so is boggling. If you must write a WoT, surely it's not hard to summarize a case?

If you can't do that, that's the time to seriously consider if you actually have a case to summarize at all, as opposed to what amounts to trivia. Frankly, it should be easy to do. >_>

<->

For my part, I'm leaning more towards the Serp/Sodium scumteam theory than Zak/Sodium. Summary~

-Essentially, Serp's attitude with Dorian early on feels like a buddy throwing up his hands, followed by a quick escape. His logic on why we should lynch a lurker day 1 was also pretty horrible.
-After the replacement, he then never mentions him again.

-Meanwhile, Sodium gave now-dead townies far too much credence on trivial matters at the time, later reversing his opinion only when it's really being shoved in his face that his position is unteneble.
-Likewise, his late posts day 3 on Zakeri give an indication that he thought the guy was scummy, but he waited an awfully long time to bring it up and only did so some time after he had a bad excuse to clear someone.

-Today, both of them seem to have trouble keeping their thoughts straight, i.e. Sodium over who's OMGUSing who, Serp over the legitimacy of the case on Sodium.

-I'm also very concerned with how Sodium has been posting today in general (moreso than Serp); I'm still not really sure who he favors as scummy, if anyone, and it's a bit late in the day for summarizing posts. I'm not sure he's tried to hunt at all, and his replies to pokes at him often seem to be answering other queries entirely than the one's presented, or attributing stances to his opponents (i.e. me) that don't actually exist.

I'm about ready to bite the bullet and drop a second vote on Sodium. Gonna sleep first, though, but he's my favoured lynch today as well.

<->

Rou: elaborate on Zak 'coming apart at the seams' and why he's somehow much worse than Serp at this point. I'm seeing more connective vibes between Serp and Sodium than Zak and Sodium.

FinnKaenbyou

  • Formerly Roukanken
  • *
  • blub blub nya
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #497 on: July 30, 2009, 12:12:43 PM »
Rou: elaborate on Zak 'coming apart at the seams' and why he's somehow much worse than Serp at this point. I'm seeing more connective vibes between Serp and Sodium than Zak and Sodium.
Half of what he's spouting is just plain logical fallacy, things like 'Lynching lurkers is bad because it means they don't get to stop being lurkers' and 'Just because half your posts are scummy doesn't mean anyone has any reason to suspect you if you're lurking'. And THIS is the guy who was complaining yesterday about how we didn't use Occam's Razor enough!

I'm not necessarily saying that Zak is scummier than Serp, but he's risen up a good deal on my list of Potential Sodium Buddies. Serp still seems like a much more likely buddy though given his 'I'M WATCHING YOU VERY CAREFULLY oh wait no i'm not' attitude and Sodium's corresponding 'Ho hum, Serp looks pretty good to me OMFG SERP IS OBVSCUM DIE'.
In particular, the move that really makes me unsure of the Sodium/Zak pair was Sodium's sudden Zak vote on D3. At this point Pesco was pretty much set to be lynched anyway, so what would Scum!Sodium gain from voting his buddy when there's already a perfectly good mislynch set up?

?lice Bl?ckb?rn

  • The real Alice Blackbarn!
  • *
  • "OH DESIRE"
Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #498 on: July 30, 2009, 01:56:26 PM »
"Oh, great. Another game where I get screwed by Kilga." ~ Carthrat

Serp

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #499 on: July 30, 2009, 03:39:28 PM »
Quote from: Roukanken
I was initially unkeen to agree with Serp's Zak case given that the earlier points against him were somewhat lacking, but today he's pretty much coming apart at the seams. Reading these last few posts I'm beginning to wonder if this whole attack on Serp from Zak isn't a chainsaw to protect Sodium. Dammit, every single one of my other cases revolves around Sodium's flip one way or another. >_>

Wait, a chainsaw is when Townie X makes a case on Scum Y, and Scum Z attacks Townie X to distract him into dropping his case, right?  'Cause if we've been using different terminology all this time, I think that would explain some misunderstandings.

Also, what do you mean your cases revolve around Sodium's flip?  From here it looks like you're confident enough to pick targets based on the likelihood of scumpartnership.

Quote from: Carthrat
I don't get this. You're going 'I don't see your case. Ok, actually I do, and it's legitimate, but mine's still better because um yours is just details!' That's a bit different from 'there is no case', which is what I got from you earlier.

I didn't mean that I literally didn't see a case.  I meant that it was weak and, well...  just details.  I had missed the significance of Sodium ignoring my point about Pesco's roleclaim, but even with that, it's not much.  His Day 2 conduct was pretty clean, and he did some self-contradictory flailing when prodded on Day 3.  In fact, I'm finding his LyLo conduct worse than any of that.

Alright, his first post of LyLo, he quotes his reasoning for his Zakeri vote.  Regarding that Zakeri vote, I consider it a nulltell.  Votes can be broken down into three categories.  There's votes on a bandwagon late in the day, which mean little, because the Town has generally settled on its lynch by then.  There's case votes early in the day which mean lots, because they're the most likely to lead to a fatal bandwagon.  Then there are throwaway votes late in the day which don't really have any chance of doing anything.  Sodium's vote against Zakeri at 407 is one of those, and it could mean anything.  Furthermore, he says that his biggest reason for the vote was because he didn't like Zakeri's point against me.

So he goes into LyLo like that.  He also says this a couple posts later:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
Why should I list the people I think are town? I have other people I think are town with reasons, but I simply don't say it unless it's relevant. I'd give an example if you want me to. The times I said someone is town is because it was relevant to the situation at hand, and they both happened to have role related reasons.

Then he makes this point against me, on this very page:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
It then evolved throughout the game, but then there was him "keeping an eye on me", and proceeding to do NOTHING about it.

He says "You shouldn't have to say who you don't think is scummy," yet calls me out a few posts later for not explicitly saying that I found his play unscummy.  That makes no sense, and seems kind of opportunistic.  Meanwhile, his only criticism of Zakeri is "Don't play so rough with Serp."  And he's made no opportunity to move forward with his supposed Zakeri case from D3.

So...  Judging from Zakeri's earlier play and Sodium's LyLo play, I don't think a Zakeri-Sodium pair is unlikely at all.
[15:13] <Sana> >:<

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #500 on: July 30, 2009, 04:07:02 PM »
Also, what do you mean your cases revolve around Sodium's flip?  From here it looks like you're confident enough to pick targets based on the likelihood of scumpartnership.
Basically what I'm saying is that I've gone beyond 'is X scum' and expanded into 'What are the odds of X being Sodium's buddy?'. Sodium is the point from which all of my cases currently expand, to be honest.
The irritating thing is that Sodium's managed to set himself up as a likely buddy to yourself, Affinity and Zakeri. So tomorrow is basically going to be a matter of which buddy is the real one. :V

Quote
Furthermore, he says that his biggest reason for the vote was because he didn't like Zakeri's point against me.
Does that make THIS vote a chainsaw defending Serp from Zak? When Zak made a chainsaw defending Sodium from Serp? Oh god, my brain hurts.

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #501 on: July 30, 2009, 04:36:27 PM »
Well, you're not going to find scum by linking me with anyone, because I'm not scum

Serp sure does love being confusing.

Roukan sure does love focusing on only a single player at all times.

Carthrat sure does love popping in and giving nothing new.

Affinity sure does love not existing.

Zakeri sure does love pissing off almost as many people as I did.

Random Wild Guess At Scumpair Based On Nothing: Carthffinity. I'd laugh if this actually is the scumpair.

And I don't feel like typing a lot if it's just going to be ripped apart.

I doubt that this post will help my situation though.

Look, it's a fence in a wall of walls.

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #502 on: July 30, 2009, 04:43:57 PM »
Sodium sure does love not defending himself.

Okay, seriously, are you just giving up now?

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #503 on: July 30, 2009, 05:06:50 PM »
Nah, I'm not giving up. Just a bit tired of making long posts that get countered by LONGER posts.

I could defend myself, but in all honesty, people would just tear it apart, or berate me for not doing anything except defend myself. I know that this is a false dilemma, but realistically, I doubt anything I do won't lead to those or something equally bad for me.

So, Roukan, I heard you like tunneling. You could, you know, look at other people without relating everything to me(perhaps you could relate stuff to OTHER PEOPLE! Or maybe the lack of any relation is the largest). If you still feel I'm PRIME LYNCH after doing that, then have fun voting me.

tl;dr: Stop using me as a Pesco replacement. A Frog is not a Rabbit.

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #504 on: July 30, 2009, 05:20:23 PM »
I've made plenty of points about Zakeri, but I still feel you're a better target. Plus I've already said plenty about Affinity and Serp today. Carth is seeing pretty much everything I'm seeing, plus I can't really connect him to anyone as a buddy.

Quote
tl;dr: Stop using me as a Pesco replacement. A Frog is not a Rabbit.
So, so tempted to call AtE on this.

Seriously, does anyone have any objections to lynching the guy who isn't trying to defend himself anymore? Not speaking up for yourself is a pretty anti-Town action, IMO. >_>
Because if not, I'm ready to vote at any time.

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #505 on: July 30, 2009, 05:37:54 PM »
EBWOP: You know what? Screw it. The whole 'I'm tired of defending myself' shtick is the last straw.

##Vote: Sodium

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #506 on: July 30, 2009, 05:39:15 PM »
But all your doing is relating everything back to a single person. You could consider other scumpairs that don't include me. You and Serp are doing this, although Serp is doing it with Zakeri instead of me. It's tunneling.

Anyways, there are 4 Days left. No need for town to lose just because you think I've given up. I'm actually reading the stuff, although just not commenting because there's nothing I can comment on right now.

Also, I note that Affinity in your "Three people I'm suspicious of" has been replaced by Zakeri. Without any mention of Affinity in your posts at all. And Carth might as well just be copying your base thoughts, then digging up whatever proof you haven't said yet.

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #507 on: July 30, 2009, 05:58:55 PM »
But all your doing is relating everything back to a single person. You could consider other scumpairs that don't include me. You and Serp are doing this, although Serp is doing it with Zakeri instead of me. It's tunneling.
I've already considered every possible scumpair. The only ones that seem relatively viable to me are You/Aff, You/Serp, You/Zak, Serp/Aff (which is less likely based on their declared trust of each other - stupid move for scum to make especially in Lylo) and possibly Serp/Carth (their debate during D1 over Dorian seems far too early for this).

Quote
Anyways, there are 4 Days left. No need for town to lose just because you think I've given up. I'm actually reading the stuff, although just not commenting because there's nothing I can comment on right now.
Well get commenting, then. You're not going to improve your position by saying 'I'm reading, gimme a little time'.

Quote
Also, I note that Affinity in your "Three people I'm suspicious of" has been replaced by Zakeri. Without any mention of Affinity in your posts at all.
He hasn't done anything D4 that I particularly accrue as scummy, unlike Zak.

Quote
And Carth might as well just be copying your base thoughts, then digging up whatever proof you haven't said yet.
I could accuse you of doing the same with the case on Zakeri.

Sodium

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #508 on: July 30, 2009, 06:32:59 PM »
Huh, Affinity does need to exist more. He's had three posts in Day 4. All three are garbage in terms of content.

First post(469):
"I Don't want to raise points everyone else put!"
"Why are you targeting me just because I don't hate Sodium?"
"I feel that the number of words Zakeri uses is disproportionate to the actual effectiveness of his posts."
"*Uses lots of words without much effect*"

"Carthrat's been lurking, but I'll just call it him being Passive. He also needs to do more stuff"
"Generic Why Sodium is scummy"
"Giving Sodium a Pass"
"Oh, and Serp is a pretty cool guy"

Second Post(476):
"SODIUM, STOP DEFENDING AND DO SOMETHING ELSE"
"Generic why Sodium is scummy"
"Who else are you suspicious of?"

Third Post(491):
"Why all of Zakeri's defenses suck"
"Oh hey, Zakeri is defending that guy I defended. Half of that guy's posts were scummy. THAT GUY IS SCUMMY! It's fine when I defended him, but when Zak does it, that's no good"
"Sodium is not clear"
"Generic why Sodium is scummy"
"Sodium, you're defending Dorian while saying that all his posts sucked"
"*Has defended Dorian despite how he said that he said Dorian was scummier then most*"
"Sodium was fine until LyLo, where he turned scummy."
"*Points out stuff from previous days*"


So yeah. You sure your looking hard, Roukan? He's been contradictory, and his general content level has been low. He's also had almost no opinion outside of me and Zakeri since his first post in Day 4. And even then, most of the first post was answering you, and opinions on me and Zakeri.

Just because I do it(apparently) doesn't mean I can't bring it up. I'm already a hypocrite apparently, so being a bigger one right now isn't very high on my list of concerns.

FinnKaenbyou

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Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
« Reply #509 on: July 30, 2009, 07:13:22 PM »
You want to know why I'm tunneling you, Sodium? Because it may as well be you as much as anyone.

Honestly, if I wanted to, I could probably make a decent enough case on anyone today. You and Zakeri are both spewing utter crap, IIoA and logical fallacies respectively. Serp was the coward who decided the only smart thing to do on D1 was to target the lurker because obviously D1 is the only day you can show suspicion of lurkers. Affinity is lurking horribly today, posting nothing but HEY THESE PEOPLE ARE SCUMMY FOR REASONS OTHER PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED, YOU'RE ALL IDIOTS'. Carth is practically riding the coattails of the Sodium wagon. I'm tunneling Sodium and never letting go, no matter what other people say to me.

But that's because that's all I know how to do. If I wanted to I could listen to other cases, but then I'd just be sitting there wondering 'Ooh, what if I'm wrong? What if it's Carth instead? Or maybe it's Zak, oh, but what about Serp, and I'm forgetting Sodium and oh god WHAT THE HELL AM I MEANT TO DO!?' A little part of me wants to say it's a Carth/Aff team for being so passive today, but another part wants to accuse Sodium/Zak for being too aggressive towards each other, another wants to aim at Sodium/Serp for HEY I'M WATCHING YOU wait not really...I'm just picking my opinion and running with it.

This is why I hate Lylo with a passion, because Town is walking a tightrope from start to finish. The tension is absurd, and here I am with 5 suspects and no way of deciding who's the worst. Not even so much as a cleared or even semi-cleared player to follow the lead of.

So FUCK YOU, SCUMTEAM. All of us are sick to death of this round because we're basically walking into a 6-player Lylo with 6 suspects. We get a week to sit and panic about all the possible ways the scum could be screwing us over, and given that there's no-one we can give even a half-decent pass to it's paranoia at its worst.

tl;dr I'm pretty sure I'm wrong whatever I do, so I may as well be wholehearted about it. Unless someone clears Sodium more or less completely or proves another player to be the devil incarnate I'm keeping my vote where it is. This game is dragging on for too long with no real progress on anyone's part, with Town getting screwed over at every turn, and I'm taking one last stab at doing something about it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but you'll need to prove it to me before I change my mind.