Author Topic: Umineko Mafia - Day 4 (Read 68898 times)

Carthrat · « **Reply #420 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:17:28 PM »

Sometimes Occam's razor is correct. Other times, it is not. There's no unifying mafia strategy, otherwise it'd be a pretty dull game. Again, this is another topic that's not going to go anywhere helpful on it's own... although I don't know what else to talk about today.

I'm set for a pesco lynch, and he's virtually begging for rope. The only other case floating about is the one on Sodium, and I didn't like it. So.

Is someone going to actually hammer, or at least make another case?

Pesco · « **Reply #421 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:24:02 PM »

Occam's Razor is cool because keeping up a lie is more difficult than keeping up the truth. Obviously Rou isn't a very good liar :V.

Carthrat · « **Reply #422 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:26:58 PM »

Oh, and, of course, Sodium's case on Zak, which I totally missed. Hmm.

Wow. I'm really not liking it, since I agreed with most of what Zak was saying. It's a really weird vote, too, based on almost nothing and not referencing anything else Zak has done throughout the game. Pesco/Sodium scumteam is seeming more possible than before.

Still preferring Pescolynch, but this is getting up there.

Pesco · « **Reply #423 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:34:05 PM »

Real effort you putting in there Carthrat. Remind us for the record exactly what your stance is on my lynch and how you got there. Simply saying 'He played so scummy and deserves to be hanged' won't cut it today or tomorrow.

WHMZakeri · « **Reply #424 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:37:14 PM »

my point isn't that "It's simpler, therefore it's the truth." My point is that mafia is mostly about deciding which is more probable. It's one thing to say "I think ScumSodium is just as likely if not more likely to have done what he did because blah blah therefore it's a null/scumtell." but the point I've seen brought up most often against my argument is "just because it's probable doesn't mean it's certain." which flies in the face of the core values I learned in Critical Thinking PHL 105 (Yes, I took a Collage Class just to help me learn how to play mafia)

at the rate this conversation is moving, I'm willing to bet money that no one here (including myself) has done any useful analyzing this game.

Carthrat · « **Reply #425 on:** July 26, 2009, 01:49:39 PM »

And posting witty one-liners after every post isn't going to cut it for you today, but whatever.

-Voting NK late postclaim day 1 was bad bad BAD.
-For most of the game you've been extraordinarily contrary, often forcing people to question you multiple times to get the simplest of answers.
-Today, you have...

Made cases based entirely on meta, and cleared people (hi, Rou) for the same. Picked out a pretty damn trivial detail and tried to make a case of solely it (hi, Kiro), and you've asked leading 'trap' questions of Sodium which help so little in the process of finding scum, as simply buying into the discussion makes one appear scummier. And at this point, you've basically gone 'lol I'm not talking much 'bout anything', not to mention practically egged on your lynch.

In short I'm getting a sense of "I'm fucked, so I'll spend the rest of the day screwing around/give my buddy town cred/random scum hyjinx to throw people off" confirm/deny plz

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #426 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:04:47 PM »

Quote from: Zakeri on July 26, 2009, 01:37:14 PM

My point is that mafia is mostly about deciding which is more probable.

But Occam's Razor explicitly states 'it's more likely because it's simpler'. It's basically the logical equivalent of taking the easy way out.

Quote

but the point I've seen brought up most often against my argument is "just because it's probable doesn't mean it's certain."

Where exactly does anyone say this? Because I don't remember anyone saying anything along these lines.

Quote

Critical Thinking PHL 105

I assume your professor was Hershel Layton.

Sodium · « **Reply #427 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:11:27 PM »

I said that my Day 2 points were still there(although less). =V That would mainly be the sudden change of his vote to Donut on Day 1(I didn't like his answer either), and general lurkiness.

So I'm voting him because:
Donut vote at Day 1(little reason, the wagon swinger)
Other various Day points from Day 2(Kiro's 250 is nice)
General lurkiness(RL probably the cause, so this isn't really major or anything)
"Oh hey Serp, post more, while some other people and I haven't posted all that much either"
"If x were scum" WIFOM
Posting not much after coming back from 48 hours without posting(not really important as it was at the time of my vote)

Also, Pesco hasn't been doing anything useful for a while. I'm sorta set on auto-ignore Pesco after he implied that he didn't read my posts, and because he's not answering most questions directed at him.

Sodium · « **Reply #428 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:13:12 PM »

EBWOP:Uh, Zakeri's post on Donut had little reason and was the wagon swinger. Just clearing up the wording in those brackets next the "Donut vote at Day 1".

WHMZakeri · « **Reply #429 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:45:53 PM »

Quote from: Serpentarius

Of course, a smart scummy player would know what a naive townie's reaction would be. Anyone can feign play that's ordinarily below his level.

Here, Serp counters my point by saying there's a chance Sodium was playing badly on purpose.

Quote from: Affinity

saying that 'bad players aren't necessarily scummy' and then following it up with 'naive townies are more likely to be bad' doesn't do it for me.

Affinity doesn't actively deny that it's likely, but instead implies that being more likely isn't a good enough reason to believe something.

Quote from: Roukanken

Yeah, Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to Mafia games (as someone told me a few games back).

I already explained my thoughts on this in post 418

more importantly, it seems a lot of people missed the point of my argument, which was that I think a Townie would be more likely to play like sodium did in reply to Pesco's questioning than a Mafioso would. The point on Occam's Razor not applying really grills my goat because it's basically saying "But what if he's really a smart player trying to fool you into thinking he's a townie by playing badly." Which, is a really poor WiFoM in itself.

Quote from: Roukanken

But Occam's Razor explicitly states 'it's more likely because it's simpler'. It's basically the logical equivalent of taking the easy way out.

Yukkuri shiteitte ne!

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #430 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:54:47 PM »

You know what the problem with Occam's Razor is? The simplest explanation for more or less any contradiction or mistake in Mafia is 'he didn't mean it and it was a genuine error'. If we take that stance and assume every single slip-up to be an honest mistake we're never going to find scum ever.

What I never understood about your reasoning is why a Naive Townie and a Naive Mafioso would have different thought processes in this situation. A Naive Mafioso would want to make his predecessor's posts look good in order to make himself look better, so I don't see how your point is anything besides a nulltell. A Naive Townie, however, is more likely imo to have an opinion and stick with it. The contradiction is what makes me cautious of Sodium here. (Yeah, I've run out of funny names to call him.)

Pesco · « **Reply #431 on:** July 26, 2009, 03:41:14 PM »

I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat. Is it an all in on my lynch?

WHMZakeri · « **Reply #432 on:** July 26, 2009, 03:41:56 PM »

This is exactly what I'm looking for in terms of acceptable replies.

Now I can see how a mafioso would try to justify the previous poster's actions, especially if he thinks there's a mark against him, but in the case of Dorian I think a mafioso would be much more inclined to just say forget it. It is possible a bad mafioso player to try it anyway, so I'm not debunking it's possibility completely.

As for the contradiction, I'm actually having trouble finding where the contradiction is. in 326 He tries to analyze Dorian's thought process, and ends up with the conclusion that he was playing like a clueless newbie. He continues his following posts saying that Dorian's reasoning was alright considering Dorian was a clueless newbie. The outbreak in his post 355 is just Sodium admitting he's can't fully justify Dorian's actions because Dorian was posting like a Clueless newbie.

In short, I don't even see where he changed his opinion on Dorian, much less where the contradiction comes from. Unless the contradiction is "Sodium tries justifying Dorian, Sodium finds he can't justify it, then says so" Which actually speaks more for Dorian's posting style than it does for Sodium's alignment.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #433 on:** July 26, 2009, 03:59:21 PM »

Quote from: Zakeri on July 26, 2009, 03:41:56 PM

Now I can see how a mafioso would try to justify the previous poster's actions, especially if he thinks there's a mark against him, but in the case of Dorian I think a mafioso would be much more inclined to just say forget it. It is possible a bad mafioso player to try it anyway, so I'm not debunking it's possibility completely.

So why is a bad mafioso willing to ignore it and a bad townie isn't?

Quote

As for the contradiction, I'm actually having trouble finding where the contradiction is. in 326 He tries to analyze Dorian's thought process, and ends up with the conclusion that he was playing like a clueless newbie. He continues his following posts saying that Dorian's reasoning was alright considering Dorian was a clueless newbie. The outbreak in his post 355 is just Sodium admitting he's can't fully justify Dorian's actions because Dorian was posting like a Clueless newbie.

Pesco asks him what he thought of Dorian's reasoning here. He responds 'It made sense at the time since there was a possible connection', and later says his points were reasonable and acceptable. Then he turns around and screams DORIAN HAS PRODUCED NOTHING USEFUL. THERE'S your contradiction.

Pesco · « **Reply #434 on:** July 26, 2009, 04:30:03 PM »

Easy viewing posts

Cut crap and just hammer. Sodium should be free to deliver.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #435 on:** July 26, 2009, 04:51:44 PM »

I'm not seeing the point Pesco's making with Carthrat. Looking back at his posts Pesco does indeed vote NF after the copclaim, and Carth calls him out for refusing to give a straight answer/being contrary.

PESCO, FOR THE LOVE OF KANAKO, IF YOU HAVE A POINT TO MAKE JUST FREAKING SAY IT. Wrapping up your points in enigmas so people can't understand them is blatantly anti-Town.

Pesco · « **Reply #436 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:04:52 PM »

The point is hammer me, get my flip, move on. You're only making this complicated yourself.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #437 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:15:12 PM »

Quote from: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 03:41:14 PM

I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat.

CLARIFY THIS.

I swear if you actually flip Town after all of this bullshit I will have a Battler-level mental breakdown.

Pesco · « **Reply #438 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:20:37 PM »

Quote from: Roukanken on July 26, 2009, 05:15:12 PM

Quote from: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 03:41:14 PM
I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat.
CLARIFY THIS.

I swear if you actually flip Town after all of this bullshit I will have a Battler-level mental breakdown.

I already clarified it.

Go get your meds.

Sodium · « **Reply #439 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:27:35 PM »

Pesco, you said that you would self-hammer. Anyways, I can't hammer you(now, I might later if there's no one else around and we need a hammer) because I don't think you're scum, so yeah. You're just hilariously anti-town...which is a pretty good reason to vote you actually, but not yet.

Oh, and Roukan, just because they're acceptable from someone who is essentially clueless newbie+Wrathie, doesn't mean it isn't BAD. Everything potentially good he said was said before, or explained later in a much clearer way. Being called clueless newbie + Wrathie isn't good in the first place, especially if it's supposed to make it sound not as harsh.

[irrelevant]Roukan, perhaps you should try Suwako instead of Kanako. =3[/irrelevant]
But really, Pesco didn't answer other people's questions well, so I doubt he'd answer yours well either. Even though he thinks you're town. =V

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #440 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:34:36 PM »

You know, I'm sick of this. If you're scum there's no point in arguing with you, and if you're Town then you're just plain being a dick.

Unless anyone has anything new they want to bring up, maybe we should just hammer Pesco now. He's planting WIFOMs everywhere he goes, and my every effort to squeeze content out of him has been turned down.

tl;dr CAN IT BE HAMMER TIME NAO

Suwako Morioxide ninja:

Quote from: EX Na2O2 on July 26, 2009, 05:27:35 PM

I don't think you're scum, so yeah. You're just hilariously anti-town...which is a pretty good reason to vote you actually, but not yet.

I think I just died a little inside.

Quote

Oh, and Roukan, just because they're acceptable from someone who is essentially clueless newbie+Wrathie, doesn't mean it isn't BAD. Everything potentially good he said was said before, or explained later in a much clearer way. Being called clueless newbie + Wrathie isn't good in the first place, especially if it's supposed to make it sound not as harsh.

I've already expressed my complaints about this - Dorian basically IIoA'd his vote, Affinity pulled some hidden meaning out of nowhere, and Dorian replied 'yeah that's what i meant'. In the event that Pesco flips Town despite all his bullshit I'd suggest him as a potential buddy based on this.

Pesco · « **Reply #441 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:38:25 PM »

Where did I say I would self hammer? Alice has stated dislike for it and I'd respect that since only as scum would I have something to gain with self-hammering.

You've put quite a big turnaround with the opinion on me and I don't like it.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #442 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:41:46 PM »

That was because I wasn't about to let you convince me to cut the day short and prevent discussion, BECAUSE TALKING IS PRO-TOWN. Now that conversation is wearing thin, I see no harm in going back to you.

I also love how I'm apparently scummy for not being irritated by you being totally useless.

Sodium · « **Reply #443 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:42:52 PM »

*sigh*
Want me to hammer? There's no one else here that can do it anyways(I think). Just you, Pesco, and I.

I know, contridiction from what I posted 5 minutes ago, but you and Pesco obviously feel the need to just end the Day already. That's 66.67% of the current players on right now(I think).

Pesco:
You said it about two real life days ago. I just assumed that you still had the thought, but you don't, it seems.

Pesco · « **Reply #444 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:52:39 PM »

Suicide. Anyone can be physically capable of it, but not everyone will do it.

Since you feel so strongly that I'm not scum then you shouldn't be afraid of making it clear to all why. You put yourself in this position so make it good for town, either you get caught out as scum or you prevent a mislynch.

I frankly don't think you claiming is going to cost anything amazing. Chances are that I still get lynched anyway, you draw NK (at worst) and that should leave at least 2 confirmed for tomorrow. If I don't get lynched, we'll just have to look elsewhere in the time remaining. Also the fact that you've waited this long and still haven't done anything to try prevent a mislynch is scummy.

FinnKaenbyou · « **Reply #445 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:54:47 PM »

I'd rather leave to someone who actually thinks Pesco is scum.

By the way, I don't understand why after all this 'BUT HE HAS A USELESS ROLE' defending you've been doing you still haven't fullclaimed. I'm pretty sure someone's already asked you to do it...

Quote from: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:52:39 PM

and that should leave at least 2 confirmed for tomorrow

Even Satorimindhax isn't 100% accurate. If you flip Town that doesn't make all of your suspicions instantly true. >_>

Pesco · « **Reply #446 on:** July 26, 2009, 05:56:57 PM »

Have some faith in my psychic abilities. How often have they been wrong when I've been serious about it?

Sodium · « **Reply #447 on:** July 26, 2009, 06:19:38 PM »

Are you ever serious about it?

I haven't full claimed yet because Zakeri was the only one I remember asking for it, and I had ninja'd that post saying that my role was useless flavour before his post, and then he implied that it was enough to "get" it, because of his past experience as Yukari, user of useless Traffic Signs in RWoS.

But anyways, since you want it, my full claim is(and it's flavour is even more useless then Pesco's):
Rudolf Ushiromiya. Town Cool Guy. Has son and wife. I can be cool during the night. I'm serious, that's my ability. =V The PM even said that being cool won't help you in mafia at all.

Yeah, it sounds completely unbelievable. Ask Alice about it after the game or something.

?lice Bl?ckb?rn · « **Reply #448 on:** July 26, 2009, 06:35:18 PM »

A balli, a balli, liete venite, ninfe gradite, fior di belt?.
Or, che s? chiaro il vago fonte dall'alto monte al mar sen'va.
Suoi dolci versi spiega l'augello, e l'arboscello fiorito sta.
Un volto bello all'omra accanto sol si dia vanto d'haver piet?.
Al canto, al canto, ninfe ridenti, scacciate i venti di crudelt?!

Day 3 Votecount - 8 hours, 27 minutes remaining.
Pesco (3) - Serpentarius, Kiro, Carthrat, Roukanken
EX NaClO_3 (2) - Roukanken, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity
Zakeri (1) - EX NaClO_3

Pesco is at L-1!

Protip: if your ability is explicitly stated as "not helping you in mafia", you're a Vanilla Townie. I thought this would be obvious, but oh well...

Sodium · « **Reply #449 on:** July 26, 2009, 07:15:23 PM »

It was obvious. >_>

I'm trying to prove a point here;Pesco is a vanilla townie, but he was advertising himself as...Town Asprin Addict...because that's what it said in his role PM. =V

I could claim myself as Town Cool Guy(Flavoured Useless) if I were going to be lynched, but for the sake of not complicating things, I would've just said "vanilla townie", as that's what it essentially is. Pesco choose the Flavoured Useless claim for some reason.