Maidens of the Kaleidoscope

~Beyond the Border~ => Rumia's Party Games => Mystia's Stored Games => Topic started by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 14, 2009, 08:49:09 AM

Title: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 14, 2009, 08:49:09 AM
(http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/5835/uminekotitleimageuc0.jpg)

Welcome all, to Rokkenjima! You all have met here, as the eleven people that may come to inherit Kinzo's inheritance, and all of the gold which he was in posession.

"Pfft, he never had any of that gold, some on, you seriously believe that story?" came an exclamation from Krauss

"Wait a moment. Wait. There were 17 people here originally. What happened to 6 of them?" asked Battler?

Oh, we regretfully inform you that 6 people were found murdered this morning in a shed in the garden. It's probably Beatrice's doing, but the resurrection ceremony wasn't supposed to happen until tomorrow...

Kinzo briefly looked up in surprise, then shrugged it off and went back to shredding on his guitar. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CTbuO-Ydmk&fmt=18)

"Witches? Hah. They don't exist! It must be the mafia! They're on this island and they're out to kill us all! But there's a typhoon outside, how could they have gotten here? They must be...among us all!" exclaimed Battler in surprise, knowing what this must certainly entail...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Umineko Mafia Rules
1. All non-LYLO Days will last 72 hours. All LYLO days will last 168 hours (7 days for the lazy). All Night intervals will last 24 hours from a mod's End of Day post. All night actions sent into a mod after this 24 hour interval is over will not count.
1a. Do not try to time meta the mod by guessing who might have sent in a night action based on when a mod updates the thread.
2. The lack of mod presence in a thread at the time a day runs out does NOT mean the day is extended. Any votes and unvotes made after a day's time has run out will not count. I will use time stamps for this, which are accurate to the second. Conversation during this time period is perfectly acceptable, however.
3. If Town has not reached a majority by the end of a non-LYLO day, No Lynch will be had. No Lynch is allowable even at even-person LYLO.
4. Upon a player's death, their card flip will contain their alignment and role. Any roles that are my original creation will have descriptions included upon their flip. This description will not reveal more than what the player knew about their role. The only exception to this is standard roles on which there is information about on the MS wiki (however, in the case of ambiguity, such as in GWU Mafia, any possible ambiguities will be clarified.)
5. Players will not be given any hints as to what roles may or may not exist in this setup beyond what they see in card flips. (The lone exceptions to this are made in Rule 12.)
6. Dead players are permitted one (1) postmortem post that does not reveal any information not contained in their flip. This includes opinions or directions to town, such as "Watch out for Kilga, guys!".
7. No one is to discuss the game in the thread during the night. You may play forum games or react positively or negatively to a card flip, but you are not allowed to publicly analyze other players. No player may talk to another living player in private unless explicitly stated in their PM.
8. Furthermore, do not discuss the game with anyone else except in channels specified to you by the moderators.  This rule persists even after your removal from the game - please refrain from discussing the game until the game is over.
9. Roles were distributed to characters at random. Do not try to metaguess someone's role based on their character. You will simply waste your time.
10. Any player that has not posted for 24 hours will be send a prodding PM. If the player does not post in the thread or request a replacement within 24 hours after said prodding PM is sent, they will be mod-killed. The modkill will proceed with the faction-dependent actions being explained in detail in rule 11.
11. Any mod kills I dole out to a townie for blatant rule-breaking (such as posting private correspondence with a mod) will carry an additional penalty of the day ending immediately. A mod kill of a factioned non-town player for a rule violation will carry the additional penalty of having the day's elapsed time reset to 0. Any mod kill given to a loner non-town player for a rule violation will carry no additional penalty. Do not piss me off - you and your team will regret it.

12. There does not exist any role in this game whose win condition is directly assisted by the death of the player with the role (such as a Jester). Players may choose to sacrifice themselves for the good of their team depending on the situation, but no role is inherently enhanced via death. There are also no roles with stupidly obscure win conditions (such as a Politician). Furthermore, this game is not role madness; there will be no overload of roles or silly game-breaking roles.
13. Scum and masons may only communicate during the night, scum and mason communication is otherwise explicitly forbidden during the day. People whose role PMs do not specify that they may communicate in private may not communicate in private with other people at all.

14.  Don't edit or delete your posts.  We can keep track of these things, and you won't like what happens if you do.

(I Feel Fantastic And I'm) Still Alive:
1 - Roukanken
4 - Carthrat
5 - Serpentarius
7 - Zakeri
9 - Affinity
11 - Sodium Permanganate, rep. Dorian

They're Dead, Jim:
1 - Donut - Gouda, Vanilla Townie, lynched D1
2 - Nuclear Fusion - Battler Ushiromiya, Townie Cop, modkilled D2
3 - Nietz - Shannon, Townie Jailkeeper, nightkilled N2
4 - Pesco - Natsuhi, Vanilla Townie, lynched D3
5 - Kiro - Jessica, Vanilla Townie, nightkilled N3
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 14, 2009, 08:50:14 AM
All Role PMs have now been sent out (except for Pesco's, see below), please post a confirmation post in the thread below. The game is now in Pre-game, scum and masons may converse, D1 will commence once I get a confirmation post from everyone who /in'd.

If anyone has any questions about their Role PM, do not hesitate to PM me back with the question(s), thanks.

Edit: there is further delay due to Pesco being unable to receive his Role PM as his inbox is full. So everyone yell at Pesco, please?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 14, 2009, 09:51:02 AM
Confirmed.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 14, 2009, 09:55:15 AM
Confirmed
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 14, 2009, 10:12:48 AM
I was testing inbox limit. Send it again in a moment.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 14, 2009, 10:46:02 AM
Oh gosh, the story text is kind of hilarious for some reason.

Alright, confirmed. 
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 14, 2009, 11:25:57 AM
Confirmed
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 14, 2009, 12:51:40 PM
Got my memo
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 14, 2009, 03:45:34 PM
Confirmed.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 14, 2009, 04:33:23 PM
can
one
not
find
idiotic
replies
made
every
day?
.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 14, 2009, 06:31:41 PM
Confirmed. HELLS YA LETS GET THIS STARTED SOON

:jam:
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 14, 2009, 06:34:05 PM
Confirmed.

inb4replacement
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 14, 2009, 10:24:17 PM
Confir-

Wait, I'm the co-mod.  Whoops.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 15, 2009, 12:20:35 AM
Confirmed.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 15, 2009, 12:27:47 AM
Confirmed~
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 15, 2009, 01:19:49 AM
I see everyone has confirmed, so I'll go ahead and get this show on the road.

It is now Day 1.

Don't forget to PM both Alice and I with any necessary mod communication so I don't feel out of the loop and useless. ;_;

Day 1 Vote Count
Not voting: Roukanken, Pesco, Kiro, Carthrat, Serpentarius, Nuclear Fusion, Zakeri, Nietz, Affinity, Donut, Dorian

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.  You have 72 hours.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 01:24:43 AM
It is now 2:22 AM. Therefore it's only logical to vote player 2. I mean come on, IT'S A SIGN!

##Vote: Pesco

Well it was 2:22 when I started this post, so that's close enough.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 15, 2009, 01:27:51 AM
##Vote: Roukanken Small text is bad. Small text means I can't read the funny thing you have to say without effort. :(
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 15, 2009, 01:30:54 AM
##Vote Nuclear Fusion

You need an avatar.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 01:32:19 AM
Awesome, there's a DATBF phase here too!

vote:donut since his is the first name that comes to mind when I think of the players.

We use ##vote (name) here as a standard, just FYI.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 15, 2009, 01:38:52 AM
##Vote Kiro
Your avatar lies.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 01:45:46 AM
##vote:donut

Am I doing it right? :unsure:

You don't need the colon, but that's good enough for me either way.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 15, 2009, 01:49:56 AM
##Vote: Nietz

Your avatar has shifty eyes.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 02:07:44 AM
##Vote Nuclear Fusion

1. You voted me, and obviously have a vendetta against me that I will simply not allow to go unnoticed and am fully willing to derail the game for.

2. Your avatar is a frowny face, indicating that you are mad. Mad enough to MURDER, mayhaps?

In conclusion, obv scum. Thank you and good night.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 02:12:11 AM
EBWOP: Don't take my word for it Edible, but wouldn't 6 to lynch make more sense since with 11 that makes the majority?

You may be correct.  I always assumed the formula was (living players)/2, round up, + 1.  Alice will set things straight if I am incorrect.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 02:24:40 AM
Pretty sure donut is right on that.

Also reconfirming ##vote Donut that was way to serious a response to a joke post.

...

In before donut responds with his post being a joke too.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 15, 2009, 03:03:42 AM
##Vote: Alice Margatroid Oh god, I miss you, Kitten. :'(

Actually, it's (livingplayers)/2 rounded down +1

e.g. 11/2 = 5.5 -> 5+1 = 6
12/2 = 6 -> 6+1 = 7

That way, no matter how many players there are, it's always Majority rules (51%>).

Guess that works.  6 it is.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 15, 2009, 03:13:52 AM
Day 1 Vote Count
Nuclear Fusion (2): - Kiro, donut
pesco (1): - Roukanken
Roukanken (1): - Carthrat
Kiro (1): - Nietz
donut (1): - Nuclear Fusion
Nietz (1): - Serpentarius

Not voting: Zakeri (hurr), Affinity, Dorian, pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 03:19:01 AM
##Vote Zak
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 15, 2009, 03:20:52 AM
Day 1 Vote Count- Ludicrous Speed Edition
Nuclear Fusion (2): - Kiro, donut
pesco (1): - Roukanken
Roukanken (1): - Carthrat
Kiro (1): - Nietz
donut (1): - Nuclear Fusion
Nietz (1): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (1): - pesco

Not voting: Zakeri (hurr), Affinity, Dorian
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 15, 2009, 04:06:16 AM
##Vote: Pesco he's just jealous that I have orange highlighted on purple text in my post.

...And that I started that second page.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 04:08:44 AM
Actually I voted you for stealing Kitten's vote.

And before you all forget ##Yuyuko doll Pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 04:11:53 AM
##Unvote

##Yuyuko Doll Pesco

That's my gig now Pesco! By trying to steal my gig you are inciting flames. WELL HERE YOU GO!

##Vote Pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 04:13:11 AM
##Replace Donut

Take that, you cake.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 15, 2009, 04:14:24 AM
Apology Sent for accidental infraction of rule 14.

##Unvote: Pesco Ahh, I see. That makes sense.
##Vote: Pesco for Vigging himself.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 05:07:23 AM
I am completely baffled by this yuyuko doll business.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 15, 2009, 05:16:17 AM
Very Very Old In-joke

Patchcon Mafia - Yuyuko Doll was a Vigilante Role. Pesco wound up being policy Vig kill in that game.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 15, 2009, 06:03:26 AM
##Unvote, ##Vote: Zakeri for trying too hard to vote Pesco.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 15, 2009, 07:04:42 AM
##Vote: Dorian.G for reminding me of an Oscar Wilde novel I never got around to reading.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 15, 2009, 07:41:31 AM
##Vote: Affinity for not reading Oscar Wilde.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 15, 2009, 08:32:26 AM
Zakeri is correct, it is 6 to lynch with 11 people. Furthermore, apology noted for post editing, but don't do that again or else my finger may decide to hover veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery close to the "modkill" button :P

also I just woke up at 4AM after being up for 30 hours after waking up at 5PM good god my sleep schedule just went from bad to awful.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 02:01:34 PM
##Unvote
##Vote Donut


Srs bsns. You seem rather jumpy for action.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 15, 2009, 03:22:35 PM
Niet'z Diary, July 15, 2009, 03:18:58 pm

##Unvote
## Vote Donut

Being too high-profile in the beginning of the game. Might be trying to attract first (and usually ineffective) bandwagon onto his self. Must investigate further.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 15, 2009, 03:23:20 PM
...
##Unvote
## Vote Donut
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 03:36:57 PM
Interested in why Pesco took 12 hours to decide that Donut was acting jumpy. Holding my vote.
Also, what's Niet'z (see what I did there?) definition of 'high-profile'?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 04:05:27 PM
Interested in why Pesco took 12 hours to decide that Donut was acting jumpy. Holding my vote.
Also, what's Niet'z (see what I did there?) definition of 'high-profile'?

Feel free to start playing the real game of mafia any time before the deadline you know.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 04:11:07 PM
That's kind of what I'm doing. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 04:13:42 PM
So who would you place a serious vote on if I hadn't made Donut my serious vote?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 15, 2009, 04:44:14 PM
##Unvote Nuclear Fusion
##Vote Carthrat


When you switched to Zakeri, there's a case of Donut trying too hard on Nuclear Fusion by NF, Pesco shenanigans, Donut voting Pesco, then Zakeri voting Pesco. What makes Zakeri's comments stand out to you more than Donut's, Pesco's, or Nuclear Fusion's?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 04:56:05 PM
So who would you place a serious vote on if I hadn't made Donut my serious vote?
Probably Nietz, for his strange terming of 'high-profile'. I don't see what Donut's doing that's so weird, all he did was make a joke about Yuyuko Dolls. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 05:06:27 PM
RVS could have given us something more interesting, like a L-2 on me perhaps.

Tripping on aspirin and seeing epileptic trees (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EpilepticTrees)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 05:07:40 PM

Feel free to start playing the real game of mafia any time before the deadline you know.

Ya, this deadline business has me worried and wondering. I've always played that day is unending, at least until a majority vote is reached. On those grounds, I can argue that a lynch first day is beneficial.

With a time limit, there's less time to get information out of everybody. This makes me wonder on the effectiveness on a first day lynch. I'm still inclined to believe that a lynch day 1 is better than a no lynch (and that no lynch is never a good option).

As for donut, I'm pretty sure you can't make a serious case on him just yet. I'd be willing to change my opinion of that based on how many of his posts prior were jokes.

And ya, Neitz, I also want to hear what you mean by "high-profile".

...

I miss the DATBF phase already ;_;
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 15, 2009, 05:21:29 PM
By high-profile I meant (1) (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg41997#msg41997) long and overtly exaggerated joke post and (2) (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42036#msg42036) ignores NF's response and Yuyuko Doll's pesco, openly claiming for attention.

Not much of a case, sure. But if he wants to become a bandwagon, I'm happy to oblige right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 15, 2009, 05:30:39 PM
Day 1 Vote Count- two days and several hours remain
pesco (3): - Roukanken, Zakeri, donut
donut (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Pesco, Nietz
Nietz (1): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (1): - Carthrat
Dorian (1): - Affinity
Affinity (1): - Dorian
Carthrat (1): - Kiro
Nuclear Fusion (0):
Roukanken (0):
Kiro (0):

Not voting: Nobody <3
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 05:33:58 PM
By high-profile I meant (1) (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg41997#msg41997) long and overtly exaggerated joke post and (2) (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42036#msg42036) ignores NF's response and Yuyuko Doll's pesco, openly claiming for attention.

Not much of a case, sure. But if he wants to become a bandwagon, I'm happy to oblige right now.

So you want to bandwagon donut, for a reason that you admit is weak?

What? That doesn't make any sense at all.

... I really want to just shout BANTWAGON right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 05:38:55 PM
So you want to bandwagon donut, for a reason that you admit is weak?

What? That doesn't make any sense at all.

... I really want to just shout BANTWAGON right now.

So I hear you're still voting Donut.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 06:38:33 PM
Ah, now THIS is the Mafia game I remember. Pressure piled on me right away.

So Pesco, I hear you want to end the RVS stage right away, huh? I've been watching these games in the past, and I don't see how what I've been doing is anything out of the ordinary. If anything, YOU'RE more suspicious for wanting to end the RVS so quickly. However, if you were scum that'd be too obvious, even for you...I'd say I'm withholding my vote, but you already have my vote, so. :V

Quote
RVS could have given us something more interesting, like a L-2 on me perhaps.

I could self-vote and make me L-2, you want me to try that?

##Unvote Nuclear Fusion
##Vote Carthrat


When you switched to Zakeri, there's a case of Donut trying too hard on Nuclear Fusion by NF, Pesco shenanigans, Donut voting Pesco, then Zakeri voting Pesco. What makes Zakeri's comments stand out to you more than Donut's, Pesco's, or Nuclear Fusion's?

...? I don't understand this. Pesco forcibly ended the RVS with his post, so wouldn't Carthrat's vote still be in the joke phase?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 06:40:48 PM
EBWOP: Actually, looking at it, that definitely WAS in the RVS. If it was a serious vote he didn't make it clear. Now I wanna hear a better reason for that vote.

##Unvote

##Vote Kiro
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 15, 2009, 06:55:06 PM
Donut: Carthrat had first voted Roukan. You could call that his RVS vote. His second vote on Zakeri gives a serious enough reason for me to consider it a serious vote and that's where my line of questioning is going.

Pesco explicitly stated his vote was serious business (#41), but you can also argue Carthrat's vote (#37) indirectly was the same thing. Are you going to disagree with me on this point?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 07:16:56 PM
Nietz: It was still the RVS, to be honest, unless NF thought his case against Donut was genuine. I read his post as false severity, intended to be a joke, so it was just a random vote to me. So he put a little flair into it - how is that drawing attention?

I'll leave the 'why didn't Donut respond to NF?' question to the man himself. Donut, if you would?

Quote
So Pesco, I hear you want to end the RVS stage right away, huh? I've been watching these games in the past, and I don't see how what I've been doing is anything out of the ordinary. If anything, YOU'RE more suspicious for wanting to end the RVS so quickly. However, if you were scum that'd be too obvious, even for you...I'd say I'm withholding my vote, but you already have my vote, so.
...Okay, what exactly is this? First you get mad at him for trying to end RVS (which we're going to have to do anyway, and by this point everyone had already made a jokevote), then you say that it's too suspicious to be a scum tell?

I want to hear if Zak thought his point on Pesco was worth a genuine vote before I comment there.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 07:46:21 PM
So Pesco, I hear you want to end the RVS stage right away, huh? I've been watching these games in the past, and I don't see how what I've been doing is anything out of the ordinary. If anything, YOU'RE more suspicious for wanting to end the RVS so quickly. However, if you were scum that'd be too obvious, even for you...I'd say I'm withholding my vote, but you already have my vote, so. :V

Good enough for me.

##Unvote
##Vote Kiro


Quote from: Kiro
When you switched to Zakeri, there's a case of Donut trying too hard on Nuclear Fusion by NF, Pesco shenanigans, Donut voting Pesco, then Zakeri voting Pesco. What makes Zakeri's comments stand out to you more than Donut's, Pesco's, or Nuclear Fusion's?

Explain?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 15, 2009, 07:50:02 PM
Quote
I'll leave the 'why didn't Donut respond to NF?' question to the man himself. Donut, if you would?

*checks* Oh, that? Didn't seem that serious to me, so I forgot about it. Though Nuclear Fusion seems to be new to the "time limit" thing, so maybe he doesn't know how the RVS works here.

Quote
...Okay, what exactly is this? First you get mad at him for trying to end RVS (which we're going to have to do anyway, and by this point everyone had already made a jokevote), then you say that it's too suspicious to be a scum tell?

I was just trying to stir up some conversation really. I wasn't getting so much angry as pointing out that his vote on me was very weak in a very bad way. So, business as usual with me.

Donut: Carthrat had first voted Roukan. You could call that his RVS vote. His second vote on Zakeri gives a serious enough reason for me to consider it a serious vote and that's where my line of questioning is going.

Pesco explicitly stated his vote was serious business (#41), but you can also argue Carthrat's vote (#37) indirectly was the same thing. Are you going to disagree with me on this point?

...

*hits self on forehead lightly*

I'm not the quickest in these types of games, okay?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 08:21:28 PM
I'm very very lost with the Donut/Pesco thing right now. From what I can see the conversation went like this.

Pesco: "Why are you so keen to get into action?"

Donut: "Why are you so keen to end the RVS?"

Pesco: "Good point. Unvote."

Likewise -
I wasn't getting so much angry as pointing out that his vote on me was very weak in a very bad way.
Yes, last I checked this was a very bad thing. Why so wiling to ignore it?

What exactly is this? Why are you both so willing to drop your cases after one point gets turned down, and why did both of you conveniently switch to Kiro?
I'm REALLY not liking what's going on here, to be honest.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 08:26:35 PM
Never said it was a good point, said it was acceptable.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 08:41:25 PM
Quote from: donut
*checks* Oh, that? Didn't seem that serious to me, so I forgot about it. Though Nuclear Fusion seems to be new to the "time limit" thing, so maybe he doesn't know how the RVS works here.

I'm assuming RVS = DATBF. That being said, what does RVS stand for?

Other things, didn't unvote donut because he's not in ninja lynch range. I'm assuming with 11 people there will be upwards of three mafia. With 6 to lynch, and only 3 votes on donut at the time, there's no reason to unvote because there's no fear of his sudden lynching (unless the mafia want to tell us who they are by trying to bandwagon him).

Second point - Pesco donut interaction does not feel fake to me. They don't have enough information either way it seems to know for sure. One could be mafia crumbling under mild pressure, but I find it highly unlikely that they both could be scum. Further posting by both will be required for me to decide.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 08:44:44 PM
RVS = Random Voting Stage

DATBF = Discussion About Trivial Bullshit Facts?

 :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 15, 2009, 08:47:47 PM
DATBF = Dicking Around to be Funny.

So ya, about the same thing, then.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 09:29:10 PM
Never said it was a good point, said it was acceptable.
It isn't a defense, it's a deflection. You attacked him and he attacked you back, which makes him innocent? I don't get it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 15, 2009, 09:32:31 PM
His jam filled hole

I'm not seeing any scummy intent in his posts. I'm leaving him be for now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 15, 2009, 09:58:18 PM
So you want to bandwagon donut, for a reason that you admit is weak?

What? That doesn't make any sense at all.

... I really want to just shout BANTWAGON right now.
The first bandwagon usually is for a weak reason. My point is that by attracting attention he can get a few votes and just wait until another, more "serious" bandwagon comes and everyone forgets about him.

Nietz: It was still the RVS, to be honest, unless NF thought his case against Donut was genuine. I read his post as false severity, intended to be a joke, so it was just a random vote to me. So he put a little flair into it - how is that drawing attention?
False severity was also how I first read his post, and that by itself would be fine. But just after that he went for pesco, which is a sure way to get attention. Someone taking their joke votes a little too far and becoming the first bandwagon, and later it just dissolving as people look for a more serious suspect is an all too common pattern here. And I figure scum might as well use it to their advantage.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 15, 2009, 10:41:51 PM
@Nuclear Fusion

Quote
So you want to bandwagon donut, for a reason that you admit is weak?

What? That doesn't make any sense at all.

... I really want to just shout BANTWAGON right now.

Firstly, why doesn't it make sense?  Weak reasons are better than none this early in the game, and it is alright to pursue something based on these.

Secondly, why didn't you vote Nietz for it?  When you had no serious votes beforehand.

##Unvote
##Vote: Nuclear Fusion

---

pesco seems to me to be avoiding the questions thrown at him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Edible on July 15, 2009, 11:13:20 PM
Day 1 Vote Count- two days and change remain
pesco (2): - Roukanken, Zakeri
donut (2): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz
Kiro (2): - donut, pesco
Nietz (1): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (1): - Carthrat
Affinity (1): - Dorian
Carthrat (1): - Kiro
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity
Roukanken (0): -
Dorian (0): -

Not voting: Nobody <3
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 15, 2009, 11:25:02 PM
I'm not seeing any scummy intent in his posts.
Then why the hell did you give him a serious business vote?

False severity was also how I first read his post, and that by itself would be fine. But just after that he went for pesco, which is a sure way to get attention. Someone taking their joke votes a little too far and becoming the first bandwagon, and later it just dissolving as people look for a more serious suspect is an all too common pattern here. And I figure scum might as well use it to their advantage.
Through this logic you may as well accuse Pesco as well for giving Donut an opening to attract attention for the first bandwagon.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 15, 2009, 11:40:29 PM
So it's time for me to stop being lazy.
What I think that makes Nuclear Fusion suspected is that he was already on the BANTWAGON he was complaining about and didn't changed it.
Then why the hell did you give him a serious business vote?
To hide that he is complete clueless? Just a guess.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 12:05:02 AM
@Nuclear Fusion

Quote
So you want to bandwagon donut, for a reason that you admit is weak?

What? That doesn't make any sense at all.

... I really want to just shout BANTWAGON right now.

Firstly, why doesn't it make sense?  Weak reasons are better than none this early in the game, and it is alright to pursue something based on these.

Secondly, why didn't you vote Nietz for it?  When you had no serious votes beforehand.

##Unvote
##Vote: Nuclear Fusion

---

pesco seems to me to be avoiding the questions thrown at him.

Because unlike some people, I'm not going to throw my votes around.

Also, I can think something is weak without thinking it is scummy. I never said I thought Neitz was scum, I said I thought his reasons for the bandwagon were weak. He explained himself, and I have no problems with his explanation at this point and time.

As for why I don't think it makes sense - bandwagons are usually for the sake of forcing somebody into a claim OR because it's DATBF/RVS. Bandwagons happen almost entirely within the first day, and are almost always pointless/bad for town. Weak reason does not equal bandwagon. Weak reason equals one of two things: 1) a vote early in the game. 2) scum who can't think of anything good.

Neitz's answer has swayed me towards a more townie feel for him.

HEY DORIAN! It's not a bandwagon vote if I'm the first one voting him for reasons unrelated to a bandwagon (as in RVS). I can complain about a bandwagon when I don't approve of the bandwagon, despite my vote being on the bandwagoned person.

Current Suspicions -

Donut - Mediocre feel on him, not getting anything one way or the other, but it sure is funny to watch him.
Pesco - I need to read his Donut responses again. Those could easily influence my feelings about him. Currently on Neutral.
Dorian - His heart seems in the right place, but his posts are lacking. How many posts have you made, anyway? Two? Three? And I don't think there's been much information from them either (as in he is being lazy and said so himself). Leaning scum on him.
Neitz - See earlier in this post. Leaning town.
Zakeri - Why does it feel like you haven't said anything useful? Requires a re-read.
Affinity - Are you normally an aggressive player? Do you feel the need to throw a vote around every post? Please respond to this.
Serpentarius - Has this guy posted even? Another I don't feel has said enough.
Cart and Kiro - I'm lumping you guys together. Enjoy that. Needs more reading of them.
Rouk - man, I almost forget him somehow. I had to check the player list like 4 times before I realized who I was missing :/ Needs more reading also.

So the only person I've got any feelings on is... Dorian, huh.

Do I have to declare an unvote? Can I just switch votes?
##unvote
## vote Dorian Gray
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 01:02:41 AM
Rouk - man, I almost forget him somehow. I had to check the player list like 4 times before I realized who I was missing :/ Needs more reading also.
;_;

Dorian, that's...really not a lot of content. What about everyone else?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 16, 2009, 01:04:05 AM
Alright, as far as I'm concerned, RVS ended here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42004#msg42004) with Nuke's response to Donut's joke post.  When people start voting on what they see as legitimate scumtells, RVS is over.  Yes, Donut's post was pretty clearly a joke post, and yes, it was just over an hour into the game, but after that point, people had some actual meaty statements to chew on.

Still, random shenanigans carry on for awhile.  I'm frustrated that of Zakeri, Carthrat, Affinity, and Dorian, nobody so much as commented on Nuke's case on Donut.  Donut himself gets an extra raised eyebrow for not even responding to it 'till he gets called out for not responding.  Nietz and (eventually) Pesco get a pass for coming down on the other side, though I think it's hard to see Donut's initial post as anything but a joke.

Donut's conduct more recently is more than a little weird, especially this:

So Pesco, I hear you want to end the RVS stage right away, huh? I've been watching these games in the past, and I don't see how what I've been doing is anything out of the ordinary. If anything, YOU'RE more suspicious for wanting to end the RVS so quickly. However, if you were scum that'd be too obvious, even for you...I'd say I'm withholding my vote, but you already have my vote, so. :V

What's so suspicious about wanting to end RVS in the first place?  Then Donut here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42326#msg42326) acknowledges that Kiro has a legitimate point against Carthrat, yet continues to vote against Kiro when it was that case against Carthrat that made Donut place his vote against Kiro in the first place.  Pesco, meanwhile, says it's an "acceptable" case, which I'm willing to give him, but he's not exactly pursuing any other cases, which I can't abide.

Nietz's elaboration on Donut's scumminess here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42377#msg42377) seems solid.

As for my thoughts on the others, Roukanken seems to be making all the same observations that I am.  The case on Kiro seems groundless and a little fishy, and I'm also waiting for Carthrat to explain himself.  Looks like most of the issues with Nuke after the fiasco with Donut are just due to unfamiliarity with an outsider's scumhunting techniques.  Zakeri seems really active during the RVS phase and then disappeared when things got serious, which is never a good sign.  Nietz and to a lesser degree Affinity look to be scumhunting.  Dorian should weigh in on more stuff.

##Unvote
##Vote nintendonut888


Donut's feeling the most scummy to me right now.  Pesco's a close second.  Nuke, I don't want to get bogged down into discussion of scumhunting techniques, 'cause I sense I'm already getting an unsavory reputation for that sort of thing, but you shouldn't be afraid to throw your vote around.  It lets everyone know that you mean srs bsns, and it puts pressure on whoever you happen to be voting against.  Scum are more likely to crack under pressure than townies are.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 16, 2009, 01:30:14 AM
Kiro: Zakeri unvoted pesco and made a big deal of revoting him in the same post. Seemed more try-hardy than anything else to date, and due to the way he's hitting the same person twice in a row I can't dismiss it entirely as a jokevote, either.

Pesco is also votebait in general and a go-to lynch on day one, so I am doubly suspicious of people voting him for flimsy rationale. 'SelfVig' my foot.

Donut's votes were all jokevotes and I'd just disregarded them. I think that's all Pesco had really done, too. They barely registered, frankly.

On Donut, though, now that he knows Kiro and I weren't just fucking around, he's now obligated to have an opinion on that chain of events. After Kiro's response to him, he didn't really address how that made him feel at all (despite having a vote on Kiro ostensibly to find out more.) Explain yourself.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 01:37:57 AM
Sorry, it's been a while since I've actually played Mafia, so I'm forgetting how this all works (and had a tenuous grasp on it in the first place). My opinion is...you're reaching Carthrat. Zakeri's vote still seemed like a joke vote in my eyes. In the RVS we're all coming up with weird ideas for why to vote someone, and Zakeri's is some fittingly weak and unsubstantiated reason.

In any case, you're right, I shouldn't keep my vote on Kiro anymore.

##Unvote


As for the whole issue of why I'm "suspicious" about Pesco wanting to end the RVS is that isn't that what scum wants? To end the phase to start throwing serious accusations around? But like I said, Pesco seems to like doing this regardless of his alignment, so I didn't really put much pressure on the issue.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 01:49:26 AM

As for the whole issue of why I'm "suspicious" about Pesco wanting to end the RVS is that isn't that what scum wants? To end the phase to start throwing serious accusations around? But like I said, Pesco seems to like doing this regardless of his alignment, so I didn't really put much pressure on the issue.

Seems to me scum want the RVS to go on as long as possible, because it would waste the day without the town getting any information. Which is bad for town. Town needs information as much as possible. So no, I think Pesco wanting to end the RVS doesn't say anything about his scumminess.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 16, 2009, 01:51:05 AM
As for the whole issue of why I'm "suspicious" about Pesco wanting to end the RVS is that isn't that what scum wants? To end the phase to start throwing serious accusations around? But like I said, Pesco seems to like doing this regardless of his alignment, so I didn't really put much pressure on the issue.

I'd think it would be the other way around.  Scum would probably want to draw the RVS phase out as long as possible so that the Town has less time to talk about stuff that actually matters, less time to scumhunt.

Crosspost with Nuke. :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 01:57:38 AM
:hfive:

Awesome, thanks for posting Serp.

EBWOP on my long post: Serp has shifted to leaning town based on his big post. There's too much effort in their for me to think of him as scum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 02:07:09 AM
:hfive:

Awesome, thanks for posting Serp.

EBWOP on my long post: Serp has shifted to leaning town based on his big post. There's too much effort in their for me to think of him as scum.

Don't be fooled so easily. Why, I remember in the one game I was scum (and didn't get a replacement five minutes in) I did a very respectable wall to basically throw my scum buddy away. A good mafia player can make anything look good no matter their alignment.

And now that you mention it, yes you two are right. orz I have proven my ignorance once again.

Still wanting more clarification from Carthrat on why Zakeri's vote was worth voting for.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 16, 2009, 02:58:41 AM
HEY DORIAN! It's not a bandwagon vote if I'm the first one voting him for reasons unrelated to a bandwagon (as in RVS). I can complain about a bandwagon when I don't approve of the bandwagon, despite my vote being on the bandwagoned person.
Indeed I missd the fakt that it was still in RVS, how can that happen?
Sure it is late here but that is not a excuse. Sorry!

To hide that he is complete clueless? Just a guess.
It seems that  I was more about myself than about Pesco.
I hope some sleep wil help.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 03:05:02 AM
Well you've only got like a day left, and wow, you just completed shrugged that offed without really addressing the second half of my accusation of you.

Cool. Get some sleep so that we can lynch you in the morning.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 16, 2009, 03:13:30 AM
I already said why it was worth voting for. If you disagree, whatever. If you actually want clarification, then ask what you want clarified instead of giving me vauge 'talk more' signals. I'm not especially invested in this, but I couldn't see much worse.

Except probably Fusion, who gives town credit based on a large post without even addressing the content. For one thing, big posts mean about as much for alignment as what colour someone's name is (especially in MotK mafia, but I digress.) For another, that's really lazy.

Nor am I happy with him handicapping his own bandwagon and storming at Neitz for being willing to vote for a weak reason- it's day one many reasons are weak, they're still the only ones. Pixelbitching over this and not unvoting immediately upon what seems to be strong bandwagon suspicion is extremely troubling.

I'm not entirely comfortable with him prodding Dorian, either. The guy is clearly clueless, and I already think lynching him is always going to be a crapshoot. It's an easy thing to post that doesn't require thinking, or even really reading.

##Unvote, ##Vote: NuclearFusion yeah, this is starting to look pretty bad.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 16, 2009, 03:18:23 AM
Quote
Zakeri - Why does it feel like you haven't said anything useful? Requires a re-read.

Because I haven't yet.

##Unvote: Pesco

---Donut---
I disagree that post 25 was the end of RVS, but it very well could have been if Donut had responded to it. Considering Donut's post 32 with his claim of forgetting post 25 until it was brought up again, I sort of found it hard to believe he would forget it entirely. I think he purposefully ignored it to avoid falling into the wrong side of an argument with Nuclear who already called out Donut's would-be response. I don't think ignoring it in itself is scummy, but I do think trying to pass it off as completely forgetting when pressed about it might be.
Post 56 - The Pressure must really be getting to you. In the first paragraph, donut manages to say something that isn't scummy would be worth voting for if it wasn't so scummy it was town. There are better reasons to vote Pesco anyway. Except you haven't picked up on any of them.
Also jokes about self-voting to L-2. I don't want to know what spawned this idea.
Finally Votes Kiro thinking Carth's vote on me was a joke. Says his reasoning is ambiguous, Kiro responds that that's the reason he asked Carth. Donut Just now unvoted for this, even though I know he responded to it between then.
61 - There it is. He basically admits he's bumbling around right now. I'd like to see him go through all of today with a clearer picture in mind. Still has vote on Kiro in this post.

---Pesco---
Pesco must be an Ifrit or something, because he just lobes inviting flames. 33 looks like a personal attack on donut. Not helped at all by 41, where Pesco actually votes Donut for being jumpy without any response between them. Looking closely, 10 hours have passed between then, so it's likely the difference between jumping around like a rabbit and having actually thought things out.

Pesco post 45 - Telling Roukanken he's not helping when he is instead of answering a question aimed at him. Policy Vote Material right here.
post 50 - Defusing the Situation with a page that directly leads into the most addicting Tv Tropes page ever.
Post 60 looks like Pesco is admitting he's losing his marbles, or at the very least should reread through everything more carefully. I've already pointed out what I saw on Donut trying to hard. Also, I don't get why Pesco thinks Donut's non-sense makes passable sense to him.
63 - It's like a Drunk man throwing up and then claiming he's Sober now. Still trying to cover up the non-sense in post 60.

---Nuclear Fusion---
Post 52- Neitz's case on donut. I may just have a loose sense of humor (I mean, I think Puns are hilarious!) but I don't see Donut's first joke post as trying too hard. I understand 2 is a valid point.
Nuke's Response seems Vulgar to me. Weak reasoning is okay for an early day one vote. I also think it's cute that you've defended your right to be on the bandwagon while being angry at it by saying you left your vote there from the joke voting phase.
Nuke 64 - Defends his vote on Donut against his being a hypocrate. I understand you don't have to worry about ninja voting at L-3 but it would be nice if you went over the reasons you were voting for Donut in that post instead of using this as an excuse for not moving your vote.
64 part 2 - speaking of moving votes, I like how at the bottom of the same post, you say you have a neutral read on Pesco Vs. Donut and say you'll need more information to decide. Does this mean that if you had left your vote on Pesco, you'd be just as happy with that as your vote on Donut?
74- Still justifies instead of explains his vote. Also explains his stance on Neitz, which is acceptable to me. Also, I'm glad Nuke knows to change his vote after analyzing everyone, but then again, what would put Dorian's lack of posting above anyone else's, like Serpentarius or Myself?
78 - unvotes now that he's called on it. I'd like to see where his vote goes now.
81 - What exactly did Serp do that he would never do as a Mafioso? I admit his post is easily gloss-over-able, but that's not really a reason to ignore him as a threat to the town. Then again, my post must be hell to read.

Dorian - I can understand if you have trouble finding the time to put effort into this, but you should do more than give a passing comment on one or two people. Also, Voting for Nuke would have been acceptable from that post. Your vote is on Affinity right now, which you left from your joke vote.

Carthrat - That's just my sense of humor. I was actually planning on doing it again this post, but I'll have to see which of the above I analyzed I think is most scummy. Also:
Quote
Zakeri unvoted pesco and made a big deal of revoting him in the same post. Seemed more try-hardy than anything else to date,
Quote
Donut's votes were all jokevotes and I'd just disregarded them. I think that's all Pesco had really done, too. They barely registered, frankly.
So then Joke voting multiple times is only okay if it's different people every time?

I haven't gotten any negative vibes from anyone I haven't mentioned so far Also, Colors were selected at Random. I'm going to try and follow this all up with a Tl;dr post that's easier to understand, because this really is what my notes usually look like when I finish them.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 03:42:59 AM

Except probably Fusion, who gives town credit based on a large post without even addressing the content. For one thing, big posts mean about as much for alignment as what colour someone's name is (especially in MotK mafia, but I digress.) For another, that's really lazy.

Nor am I happy with him handicapping his own bandwagon and storming at Neitz for being willing to vote for a weak reason- it's day one many reasons are weak, they're still the only ones. Pixelbitching over this and not unvoting immediately upon what seems to be strong bandwagon suspicion is extremely troubling.

I'm not entirely comfortable with him prodding Dorian, either. The guy is clearly clueless, and I already think lynching him is always going to be a crapshoot. It's an easy thing to post that doesn't require thinking, or even really reading.

##Unvote, ##Vote: NuclearFusion yeah, this is starting to look pretty bad.

Oh hey, cool. You are Dorian's scum buddy. Sweet, that's two of three on day one.

Seriously, what the heck is this post? I don't even know what you are trying to accuse me of here.

You are defending somebody on the grounds of being "clearly clueless"? How could you possibly know that? Cause he says he's tired? He could be as tired as he wants, that's not really an excuse for his original post where he messes up the order of RVS. BECAUSE THAT POST HAPPENED SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER! Unless you are willing to say he was tired then. In which case, hey guys I'm tired so excuse everything I've said until now hurf durf.

As for Serp's long post - there was a double move going on there, but thanks to you and donut, it's been shattered. Congrats, guys. Yes, I'm fully aware of long posts not necessarily being full of content (for what it's worth, I feel serp's post was full of content). The fact is if you slap scum on the back and make them feel safe, you lure them into a false sense of security. But thanks to you guys, that's just not going to work with Serp.

Handicapping my own bandwagon? What bandwagon? I NEVER STARTED THAT BANDWAGON! READ THE THREAD! Other people tried to bandwagon Donut, and I specifically said this was a bad idea despite my vote being on him. That does not mean I participated in this bandwagon. You and Dorian have both made this assumption. You are the only two people who have made this assumption. I think he isn't trying very hard (because he is scum) and now I think you are flailing to get town lynched day one (because you are scum).

Also, see previous posts about why I didn't unvote. Hint: it didn't matter if I moved my vote at the time, so I didn't.

Addressing Zakeri's points on me - I don't move my vote because it freaking doesn't matter. yes, if my vote had been on Pesco at the time I would have kept it. I joke voted donut at the beginning because his was the only name among you people I recognized (because I see his comments on youtube). I left my vote there because it was irrelevant. I don't need to justify a vote which is irrelevant. There is no justification for it one way or the other. It simply is something which is there from the start. I moved it once I found a better place for it.

Also... I moved my vote. Stop not reading the thread completely. My vote is Dorian. IT IS IN THE SAME POST WHEN I UNVOTE AND ASK IF I NEED TO UNVOTE BEFORE I MOVE MY VOTE.

And here we go addressing Serp again - Serp put effort into his posts... much like I'm seeing you doing. I tend to let people who put effort go by because even in the event that they are mafia, they are still supplying the town with information. And the town needs information. I'd rather lynch lurking scum then the ones who are helping the town, even if they are trying to misdirect the town.

Phew, that was long.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 16, 2009, 03:50:33 AM
Donut
Scummy:
-Makes an Excuse for why he ignored Nuclear Fusion.
-Targeting Pesco for trying to vote seriously
-Voting Kiro for asking Carthrat to Clearify
-Once he understands Kiro's reasoning, fails to Unvote Kiro.
Null:
-Generally tries to make light of his actions by admitting them
Townish:
-Needed why getting out of RVS is good for the town explained to him
-Asked for and then understood Kiro's reasoning

General Feeling - Donut is trying to walk through a dark room he use to be familiar with and keeps stubbing his toe. Not entirely certain if he's lynch worthy yet.

Pesco
Scummy:
-Insults Donut
-Insults Roukanken
-Deflects questions aimed towards him
-unvotes Donut when Donut gives poor reasoning to attack him
-Covers above point up with IIoA, saying he doesn't feel Donut is scum

General Feeling - ##Vote: Pesco
Yes, I really do think randomly unvoting and revoting someone because the reason changes is hilarious. At least it's a serious vote this time.

Nuclear Fusion
Scummy:
-Trying to attack a wagon that his vote is on
-Defends his vote as not being a part of the wagon
-Continues defending his vote instead of explaining why he voted and why it's different from the bandwagon
-Admits he's neutral on Pesco Vs. Donut and still doesn't change his vote
-Makes a General thoughts on everyone list without doing very much analysis on anyone. His reasons for voting Dorian seem forced when he writes them, and it seems like an afterthought when he places the vote.
-Too quick to praise Serpentarius.

General Thoughts - wow, what a crime list. I also didn't catch any town tells.

My basic thoughts right now is that Donut seems like an easy target, while Pesco is acting like Scum-Pesco and Nuclear is acting like a mafioso that accidentally got in the way of and is trying to get out of the way of people's suspicions. I would vote for either Pesco or Nuke.

Psuedo-Edit: Oh, hey there, Nuke~ I've only seen the first sentence of your post, and I've already had to fight against my natural reaction of posting an image of a guy reacting to something. I'll read it in a bit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 16, 2009, 03:54:06 AM
Through this logic you may as well accuse Pesco as well for giving Donut an opening to attract attention for the first bandwagon.
Pesco self-vigging hardly got my attention. Donut's following "You are stealing my gig! Die!" post definitely did. Especially because he did it in lieu of actually answering NF.

As for why I don't think it makes sense - bandwagons are usually for the sake of forcing somebody into a claim OR because it's DATBF/RVS. Bandwagons happen almost entirely within the first day, and are almost always pointless/bad for town. Weak reason does not equal bandwagon. Weak reason equals one of two things: 1) a vote early in the game. 2) scum who can't think of anything good.
I see were you are coming but, in a general manner, I don't think bandwagons are bad or pointless. Especially on Day 1 - when we have little to work on unless scum makes a mistake - because post-wagon analysis usually gives more interesting results for the following days.

Overall, I don't like how donut's been reacting to the pressure. First ignoring it, then trying to deflect with some very confusing reasoning about RVS, then backtracking...

pesco's reaction to donuts kinda weirds me out. He attacks you with some bad reasoning and your reaction is... unvote him and vote Kiro?

Ninja: NF, Zakeri, but I'm too tired to think/address it right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 03:58:20 AM
Ah, Rouk, that's a good point there. Ya, bandwagons do provide analysis on later days based on who started them/ joined them. Fair enough, I'm going to have to give you that point.

Now.

Let's dance, Zak.

I'll wait for you response, since your second post was basically a sum of your other one.

Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 16, 2009, 04:18:00 AM
Zak: It is, kinda. My suspicions are multifaceted and stem from Pesco's lightning-rod like nature. My suspicions are also rapidly become trivilialized as the day progresses.

Fusion: Firstly, some mistakes are not necessarily indicitive of scum.

Secondly, I don't think Dorian actually made one beyond semantics. The point of contention is that you're getting all upset earlier about people voting on your lynch target, but you're not really accusing them, going after them, changing your mind until long after the point. This is disjointed and weird.

Thirdly, his posting style (and content, really) are, well, pretty lackluster and indicitive of someone plainly not used to this style of game. Because of this, he makes a very easy target of opportunity, and people starting wagons on him earn suspicion from me as a result.

Fourthly, it's uncool for you to turn around and get mad at me and Donut for exposing your master plan to trick Serpentarius- it certainly tricked the rest of us, well done? It is much better for town to not be deceptive, and I automatically assume that anyone who is being so is scum without a very good reason, which yours is not.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 04:26:41 AM
1. True.

2. I don't have to vote people to disagree with them. Hey, did I admit in the line before that some mistakes are townie? Why yes! I think I did! So should I vote people who I think have potential for town over people who I think are scum? Oooo, tough call there.

Also, when are you people going to get it into your head. I never changed my mind about my vote. I left my vote where it was because it was irrelevant where it was, and I explained why I felt this was the case. I moved my vote at a time when I felt somebody was scum, I don't see why this is illogical.

3. Yes, they are lackluster. Indicative of somebody who is confused? Can you explain that? Cause it's not what I'm seeing and I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. You are not convincing me but sighting evidence. You are simply stating that you recognize this kind of thing. I recognize it as scum behaviour.

4. Okay, ya, that was a bit over the top. I admit to having a reputation for trying grand schemes (it was a precedent that started in my second game of mafia ever.) So ya, I probably shouldn't get mad at you guys for that since I admit to being out of line with trying it this early on in my career here.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 16, 2009, 04:34:06 AM
Quote
Oh hey, cool. You are Dorian's scum buddy. Sweet, that's two of three on day one.
Baseless Accusations: 1
Logical Conclusion based on stated premises: 0

Quote
I don't move my vote because it freaking doesn't matter.
You have this backwards. Your vote doesn't matter because you don't freaking move it. Your vote is potentially 16.7% responsible for the death of any one person. If you leave that on a person that you are defending from another 16.7%, you are effectively trying to hold someone else accountable for something that you are doing to an equal amount. This makes you a hypocrite.

Quote
I left my vote there because it was irrelevant. I don't need to justify a vote which is irrelevant.
The point of this game is to actively hunt for scum, not wait for them to mess up on their own. It's the job of the town and their votes to put pressure on the mafia and force them to mess up in that way.

Also, do you think you're being cute with your response on why you said that about Serp? You do realize that that would only work if Serp was scum. If he was town, even if no one else did, he would take what you said, label you as potential Scum clinging to a powerful townie, and convince everyone that was true. Your second point aimed towards me is not a valid reason, since the only reason you shouldn't be voting for someone is because you think they are town. I fail to see any valid reason for mindlessly praising someone, and both of your justifications say that hunting for the mafia is not your top concern, which puts you under even more suspicion.

Cut:
Quote
It is, kinda. My suspicions are multifaceted and stem from Pesco's lightning-rod like nature. My suspicions are also rapidly become trivilialized as the day progresses.
I'll accept this.

Cut again:
Quote
Also, when are you people going to get it into your head. I never changed my mind about my vote.
This actually is one of the reasons why your stance on the Donut wagon was so out of place. You vote Donut in the Random Voting Stage, then when Neitz votes, you say it's for weak reasoning, and you say he's bandwagoning. Then, you don't bother to change your vote from Donut. Unless you can prove that your Reason for voting Donut was better than Neitz's reason, and that Neitz wasn't using a similar reason, then you are hereby declared Voting differently from Townie intent and therefore not townie.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 04:39:44 AM
One more time!

Voted donut in the RVS.

Didn't approve of the bandwagon.

Didn't change my vote cause I didn't see the relevance of changing it.

Admitted that if somebody had put another vote on donut, I'd have unvoted.

And yes, I am fully aware of how the Serp thing would have worked. I'm willing to take the risks involved in gambits. This is how I play.

Furthermore - I believe I -am- actively hunting scum a lot more than other people. Maybe it's because I've been sitting here refreshing the page for the last three hours. Throwing votes around will not actively catch scum. Getting these long posts around people will catch scum. Hence I like the fact that people are posting like this. It is good for town.

Also - ya, baseless accusations are fun. I'm playing on a different style than most of you, and I'll be damned if I change what I know works. Most of that accusation stemmed from the random defense of Dorian which I feel is unwarranted.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 06:51:10 AM
I'll have PC access in an hour or two to post.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 16, 2009, 06:59:57 AM
On Dorian, his flaws are.. a lack of posting, and hardly any content. These are traits avaliable to both scum and town, but in particular, pressuring this kind of player is going to result in the same sort of flailing no matter what his alignment. He looks and smells *weak*, not scummy, and you don't look like you're scumhunting so much as just pouncing on an opportunity.

I do see relevance in changing your vote. Zakeri said why, and really I don't care much if you say 'I think it's okay to play that way', because I don't and it's not.

The stuff about your own way of playing reads like "I have my own style, which allows me to do stupid shit and you are bad for calling me on it." Yeah, no. Vote stands.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 07:30:59 AM
Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
I tend to let people who put effort go by because even in the event that they are mafia,

...

Wut.

##Vote Nuclear Fusion

I'm a little light on other reasons, but this is something that really caught my attention. This whole thing you said just rings WTF to me. You're basically not going to pursue someone who puts any effort into their posts. What if they make a fatal slip-up, which is more likely in a long post? Wouldn't you rather lynch a suspicious person so that their information holds some hard value? I don't care what play style you have, this just screams anti-town to me.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 07:31:56 AM
EBWOP: I also read everything else he had to say BTW, but it's all flashing "suspicious" to me.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 16, 2009, 08:42:55 AM
Il vento diviene bufera
Infuriano i marosi
Il mare chiama mugghiando la Maga che ha vissuto mille anni

Ho tanto atteso questo giorno!
Ho tanto temuto questo giorno!
Il destino, chi festegger??
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boccV7pNYfI&fmt=18)

Day 1 Vote Count - 1 day and 20 hours remaining:
Nuclear Fusion (3): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut
pesco (2): - Roukanken, Zakeri
donut (2): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius
Kiro (1): - donut, pesco
Nietz (1): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (1): - Carthrat
Affinity (1): - Dorian
Dorian (1): - Nuclear Fusion
Carthrat (1): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Not voting: Nobody.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 08:55:28 AM
Quote from: Rou 72
Then why the hell did you give him a serious business vote?

I voted, he responded with what I deemed acceptable, then I unvoted.

Then why the hell did you give him a serious business vote?
To hide that he is complete clueless? Just a guess.

Why are you answering my questions?

Quote from: NF 74
Also, I can think something is weak without thinking it is scummy. I never said I thought Neitz was scum, I said I thought his reasons for the bandwagon were weak. He explained himself, and I have no problems with his explanation at this point and time.

As for why I don't think it makes sense - bandwagons are usually for the sake of forcing somebody into a claim OR because it's DATBF/RVS. Bandwagons happen almost entirely within the first day, and are almost always pointless/bad for town. Weak reason does not equal bandwagon. Weak reason equals one of two things: 1) a vote early in the game. 2) scum who can't think of anything good.

This bit sounds to me that you view weak reasoning in a negative light. Your two possiblities don't draw conclusion of anyone as townie, only neutral at best.

Quote from: NF 74
HEY DORIAN! It's not a bandwagon vote if I'm the first one voting him for reasons unrelated to a bandwagon (as in RVS). I can complain about a bandwagon when I don't approve of the bandwagon, despite my vote being on the bandwagoned person.

Current Suspicions -

Donut - Mediocre feel on him, not getting anything one way or the other, but it sure is funny to watch him.
Pesco - I need to read his Donut responses again. Those could easily influence my feelings about him. Currently on Neutral.
Dorian - His heart seems in the right place, but his posts are lacking. How many posts have you made, anyway? Two? Three? And I don't think there's been much information from them either (as in he is being lazy and said so himself). Leaning scum on him.
Neitz - See earlier in this post. Leaning town.
Zakeri - Why does it feel like you haven't said anything useful? Requires a re-read.
Affinity - Are you normally an aggressive player? Do you feel the need to throw a vote around every post? Please respond to this.
Serpentarius - Has this guy posted even? Another I don't feel has said enough.
Cart and Kiro - I'm lumping you guys together. Enjoy that. Needs more reading of them.
Rouk - man, I almost forget him somehow. I had to check the player list like 4 times before I realized who I was missing :/ Needs more reading also.

So the only person I've got any feelings on is... Dorian, huh.

Coupled with the previous quote, I'm not seeing why you would vote Dorian after all this.

Quote from: Serp 76
Nietz's elaboration on Donut's scumminess here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42377#msg42377) seems solid.

Which parts were you agreeing with?

:hfive:

Awesome, thanks for posting Serp.

EBWOP on my long post: Serp has shifted to leaning town based on his big post. There's too much effort in their for me to think of him as scum.

Bullshit. Serp is capable of effort regardless of whether he's town or not. I'd say you don't make the town cut by your own standard of effort.

Quote from: Carthrat
Except probably Fusion, who gives town credit based on a large post without even addressing the content. For one thing, big posts mean about as much for alignment as what colour someone's name is (especially in MotK mafia, but I digress.) For another, that's really lazy.

Nor am I happy with him handicapping his own bandwagon and storming at Neitz for being willing to vote for a weak reason- it's day one many reasons are weak, they're still the only ones. Pixelbitching over this and not unvoting immediately upon what seems to be strong bandwagon suspicion is extremely troubling.

I'm not entirely comfortable with him prodding Dorian, either. The guy is clearly clueless, and I already think lynching him is always going to be a crapshoot. It's an easy thing to post that doesn't require thinking, or even really reading.

I agree with all the stuff here.

Quote from: NF 87
As for Serp's long post - there was a double move going on there, but thanks to you and donut, it's been shattered. Congrats, guys. Yes, I'm fully aware of long posts not necessarily being full of content (for what it's worth, I feel serp's post was full of content). The fact is if you slap scum on the back and make them feel safe, you lure them into a false sense of security. But thanks to you guys, that's just not going to work with Serp.

...

And here we go addressing Serp again - Serp put effort into his posts... much like I'm seeing you doing. I tend to let people who put effort go by because even in the event that they are mafia, they are still supplying the town with information. And the town needs information. I'd rather lynch lurking scum then the ones who are helping the town, even if they are trying to misdirect the town.

I'm going top go into a little about player background here. The MotK mafia archive has links to the games completed recently. The resources are there, and if you don't use them, that's your loss. I'm going by the assumption that everyone knows at least something about the others, be it by reputation or personal knowledge.

I think NF has taken Serp too lightly and really, what you're doing here 'patting scum on the back' is the same as scum patting town on the back. It's a play that scum benefit more from because that's one vote that could be easier to swing for later. It is canon that good townies don't play like this. I am calling it a scummy move and you're trying to cover your ass for backtracking.

Quote from: Zak 88
Pesco
Scummy:
-Insults Donut
-Insults Roukanken
-Deflects questions aimed towards him
-unvotes Donut when Donut gives poor reasoning to attack him
-Covers above point up with IIoA, saying he doesn't feel Donut is scum

General Feeling - ##Vote: Pesco

Nuclear Fusion
Scummy:
-Trying to attack a wagon that his vote is on
-Defends his vote as not being a part of the wagon
-Continues defending his vote instead of explaining why he voted and why it's different from the bandwagon
-Admits he's neutral on Pesco Vs. Donut and still doesn't change his vote
-Makes a General thoughts on everyone list without doing very much analysis on anyone. His reasons for voting Dorian seem forced when he writes them, and it seems like an afterthought when he places the vote.
-Too quick to praise Serpentarius.

General Thoughts - wow, what a crime list. I also didn't catch any town tells.

My basic thoughts right now is that Donut seems like an easy target, while Pesco is acting like Scum-Pesco and Nuclear is acting like a mafioso that accidentally got in the way of and is trying to get out of the way of people's suspicions. I would vote for either Pesco or Nuke.

Would I still be scummy if I insulted Kiro or Carthrat? I'm not seeing the deflection that everyone just brings up without any links or quotes, I think I've answered it.

Comparing the list you've got here, it feels to me that you think voting me is a safer lynch to push. Yet what you've said of NF is clearly more serious and less subjective. "Pesco is acting like Scum-Pesco and Nuclear is acting like mafioso", I interpret that as "Pesco feels like scum by gut and Nuclear feels like scum by facts". Can you explain why I'm more deserving of being lynched over NF?

IIoA post from you btw. Even if it was just a summary, not enough explanation.

Quote from: Nietz 89
pesco's reaction to donuts kinda weirds me out. He attacks you with some bad reasoning and your reaction is... unvote him and vote Kiro?

I felt Donut wasn't scummy by then, he was simply being an idiot (yay more insults!). The unvote is my stance and I'll revote him when I think he's scummy.

Voting Kiro is a separate issue altogether. The unvote and vote appearing together is merely formatting of my post. My beef with Kiro was posted right after that, don't tell me you didn't see it just because I place a vote before reasons within the same post.

One more time!

Voted donut in the RVS.

Didn't approve of the bandwagon.

Didn't change my vote cause I didn't see the relevance of changing it.

Admitted that if somebody had put another vote on donut, I'd have unvoted.

And yes, I am fully aware of how the Serp thing would have worked. I'm willing to take the risks involved in gambits. This is how I play.

Furthermore - I believe I -am- actively hunting scum a lot more than other people. Maybe it's because I've been sitting here refreshing the page for the last three hours. Throwing votes around will not actively catch scum. Getting these long posts around people will catch scum. Hence I like the fact that people are posting like this. It is good for town.

Also - ya, baseless accusations are fun. I'm playing on a different style than most of you, and I'll be damned if I change what I know works. Most of that accusation stemmed from the random defense of Dorian which I feel is unwarranted.

The converse of not changing your vote, was there any relevance to keeping it?

You took a risk, but now you're dodging responsibility.

Post volume and activity =/= scumhunting effort. I'll be stating for the record that I'll L-2, L-1 or hammer you quite readily now for the bolded line.

In summary of NF taking center stage, I note that he's reacted quite strongly once people started voting him seriously. All this defensiveness from 3 votes and less.

Kiro hasn't responded, so I don't want to give him a pass with unvoting just yet. You can consider my vote as good as on NF already.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 16, 2009, 10:22:19 AM
Nuke seems to have hit critical mass.

As for Serp's long post - there was a double move going on there, but thanks to you and donut, it's been shattered. Congrats, guys. Yes, I'm fully aware of long posts not necessarily being full of content (for what it's worth, I feel serp's post was full of content). The fact is if you slap scum on the back and make them feel safe, you lure them into a false sense of security. But thanks to you guys, that's just not going to work with Serp.

This is bad for all the reasons that have already been stated, but I should also point out that it makes no sense to try that ploy on me in the first place if you thought my post actually was full of content in the first place.  If there was a valid reason to say "I'm clearing Serp," and you were just trying to lure me into a false sense of security, then why give the invalid reason instead?  For that matter, if you saw my post as legitimately Townie, then why go through this elaborate plot against me, someone who's given you nothing but Town tells?  The plot was painfully obvious to me, so I won't say you're just making this up, but I sort of wish you were.

Now, that said, I don't think we should be giving Dorian a pass either.  I was feeling generous towards him earlier 'cause I thought we had more time left, but this day seems to be flying by.  Dorian should produce or perish.

Which parts were you agreeing with?

All of it.  Nietz hit all of the relevant points against Donut, and I felt that was worth noting.

Anyway, reading through all this again, I've got a bad feeling about Nuke.  Town has to hunt Scum, while Scum just have to cover their asses.  Nuke's play so far looks like a lot of ass-covering.  He does a lot of IIoA to look like he's contributing, then places his vote against an inactive, where he's unlikely to get much resistance.  He tries to buddy-up to me (as part of a plot, to be sure), and then when he's called on it, he still goes out of his way to say that I'm putting out great content.  Currently I'm very willing to lynch Nuke, but I don't want to bring anyone up to L-2 this early.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 10:59:12 AM
Your vote would be L-1, consider my vote as being on him already.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 12:24:17 PM
Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
I tend to let people who put effort go by because even in the event that they are mafia,

...

Wut.

##Vote Nuclear Fusion

I'm a little light on other reasons, but this is something that really caught my attention. This whole thing you said just rings WTF to me. You're basically not going to pursue someone who puts any effort into their posts. What if they make a fatal slip-up, which is more likely in a long post? Wouldn't you rather lynch a suspicious person so that their information holds some hard value? I don't care what play style you have, this just screams anti-town to me.

That probably should have had added after it "when I find somebody who I think is acting scummier and not contributing". Obvious if a long post is scum-tacular and that person is a good option I'll go for them. In this case, I feel the town has better options.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 12:25:55 PM
Aw crap, got a lot to reply to.

- Dorian, don't answer questions for other people. And you still really need to post more.

Quote
As for the whole issue of why I'm "suspicious" about Pesco wanting to end the RVS is that isn't that what scum wants? To end the phase to start throwing serious accusations around? But like I said, Pesco seems to like doing this regardless of his alignment, so I didn't really put much pressure on the issue.
Firstly, I don't understand the accusation, since the sooner the Town gets out of RVS the more time they have to make real cases. Secondly, saying 'this is scummy, but he's doing it either way so I'll ignore it' is a horrendous case of meta. Would you be saying this if it was, say, Carthrat trying to rush you out of the RVS?

Quote from: NF
Oh hey, cool. You are Dorian's scum buddy. Sweet, that's two of three on day one.
*facepalm*

Quote
As for Serp's long post - there was a double move going on there, but thanks to you and donut, it's been shattered. Congrats, guys. Yes, I'm fully aware of long posts not necessarily being full of content (for what it's worth, I feel serp's post was full of content). The fact is if you slap scum on the back and make them feel safe, you lure them into a false sense of security. But thanks to you guys, that's just not going to work with Serp.
So you show that people are scum by saying that they're Town? What the hell?

Quote
I tend to let people who put effort go by because even in the event that they are mafia, they are still supplying the town with information.
...Excuse me while I cry openly.
THE ENTIRE POINT IS THAT THE MAFIA IS FEEDING THE TOWN FALSE INFORMATION SO THEY WON'T BE DISCOVERED.

Quote
Ah, Rouk, that's a good point there. Ya, bandwagons do provide analysis on later days based on who started them/ joined them. Fair enough, I'm going to have to give you that point.
...What is this? I didn't say anything. Are you telling me you're just reading through my posts now!?

Quote
Okay, ya, that was a bit over the top. I admit to having a reputation for trying grand schemes (it was a precedent that started in my second game of mafia ever.) So ya, I probably shouldn't get mad at you guys for that since I admit to being out of line with trying it this early on in my career here.
Replace Grand Scheme with Ass Pull (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/AssPull) and I think we're closer to the truth here. The instant people said 'you're clearing him too easily' you replied 'IT'S ALL MY CUNNING TRAP TO PUT HIM OFF GUARD!' which was slightly hard to believe. >_>

Quote
Didn't change my vote cause I didn't see the relevance of changing it.
Besides, I dunno, pushing for a lynch? If Donut is no-where near being lynched a vote on him achieves nothing, especially when other people are under suspicion for other reasons.

Quote
Also - ya, baseless accusations are fun.
*headdesk*

Quote
I voted, he responded with what I deemed acceptable, then I unvoted.
He responded with an accusation against you. It's the most direct form of chainsaw possible, with the target accusing the attacker personally. So why did you back off because he was saying bad things about you?
Since he apparently needs quotes:
Quote from: Pesco
Srs bsns. You seem rather jumpy for action.
Quote from: Donut
So Pesco, I hear you want to end the RVS stage right away, huh? I've been watching these games in the past, and I don't see how what I've been doing is anything out of the ordinary. If anything, YOU'RE more suspicious for wanting to end the RVS so quickly. However, if you were scum that'd be too obvious, even for you...I'd say I'm withholding my vote, but you already have my vote, so.
So as we can see, Donut reflects the attack with another attack, and Pesco simply says
Quote from: Pesco
Good enough for me.
And unvotes. Donut never argued about why he was Town, he just turned the chessboard over and made it an attack on Pesco. Why is that worth clearing him for?

Quote
I felt Donut wasn't scummy by then, he was simply being an idiot (yay more insults!).
What changed between that and the 'srs bzns' post? Because he continued to make no sense, you decided he wasn't scummy at all and just an idiot?

Quote
That probably should have had added after it "when I find somebody who I think is acting scummier and not contributing". Obvious if a long post is scum-tacular and that person is a good option I'll go for them. In this case, I feel the town has better options.
Mind explaining these 'better options', then?

tl;dr
- Still not convinced by Pesco on the Donut issue. His backstep looked notably forced, and his reasoning for it has subtly changed from 'he gave a good response' to 'he was acting like an idiot'.
- NF is horrible for his apparent trick on Serp, saying very little of actual use, apparently thinking his vote doesn't matter if there's no-one obviously scummy, jumping on the new guy (Dorian) as soon as the opening arises when clearly he's just lost, et cetera et cetera.

Currently fine with either of them getting lynched. My suspicions of Donut mainly weigh on Pesco being scum, so I want to lynch him first and foremost.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 12:32:16 PM
I'm basically hearing people wanting to lynch me (for reasons that I think are retarded, I'll add). Does that mean you guys want a claim so I can convince you otherwise?

Cause lynching me would be on the list of stupidest things town can do today, I'm just throwing that out there.

As for researching players - I actually didn't know there was an achieve. Knowledge about it now means I should in fact research the players. So I believe I shall when I get some times.

As or crediting town by long posts - yes, I'm aware that in the eyes of the town I could be mafia. This is because everybody could be mafia in the eyes of the town. Only the mafia know the difference. hint, I am not one of the mafia. Ergo, I do not actually know which side of the coin people are falling one.

So ya, if people want, I'll claim.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 16, 2009, 01:06:04 PM
Nuclear Fusion is... clearly scummy.

Quote
Also, I can think something is weak without thinking it is scummy. I never said I thought Neitz was scum, I said I thought his reasons for the bandwagon were weak.

Neither did I.  But, of course, your backtrack with Rou later shows that whatever you said in that post was irrelevant.  Also, you answered your own question, so why question Nietz if you didn't think he was scummy.

Quote
Weak reason equals one of two things: 1) a vote early in the game.

Quote
As for why I don't think it makes sense - bandwagons are usually for the sake of forcing somebody into a claim OR because it's DATBF/RVS. Bandwagons happen almost entirely within the first day, and are almost always pointless/bad for town. Weak reason does not equal bandwagon. Weak reason equals one of two things: 1) a vote early in the game. 2) scum who can't think of anything good.

I am pretty sure that, if you spend more time with us, you shall find that what you have said shall be untrue.  Bandwagons are what the game is about, really, and votes are the bloodline.  And what, town is perfectly capable of using weak reasons. 

Lastly, I can sense hypocrisy; you give Serp a free pass for 'putting in effort' and yet take the opportunity to implicate Carth for ignoring the newbie for now, but the latter is okay on the account of letting more serious issues run by first and giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Then you go all 'oh yay gambit'. 

What, you might as well cover up every painfully obvious mistake as a gambit and confuse town further, expecting town to believe you. 

Furthermore, if it was obvious, why bother blaiming people for it?  I'm sure we are experienced enough, and so are scum.  You are not helping your team.  Mafia is a team game; so help your team.  Your retarded arrogance over your 'methods' and your self-preservation also makes you a mere distraction from scum at best, and scum at worst.

Quote
Are you normally an aggressive player? Do you feel the need to throw a vote around every post? Please respond to this.

Yes, I am.  Nope.

---

Would somehow like Kiro to appear, and share his views about NF.  I would add that, pesco, your deflection stems from...

Quote
Never said it was a good point, said it was acceptable.

How was it acceptable?  How was it not of scummy intent?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 01:12:39 PM
I'd like to point out, affinity, that if I were trying to cover up painfully obvious mistakes, that I would have admitted to being incorrect long ago about bandwagon/serp's long post.

I will hold my ground on this to the end, though. I have stated my reasons for everything until now, and I will not back down on them. However, it's abundantly clear to me that I can't convince anybody else of what I'm seeing. As such, I don't really see much point in reiterating the same crap over and over again.

Hence, let's just get the "i have an irrefutable claim" out of the way so we can get back to putting our votes on scum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 01:54:32 PM
Response post in 3 hours.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 16, 2009, 03:01:21 PM
"I would've been cooler if I was actually scum," uhuuuuuh.

Claim, by all means. No point grandstanding about it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 16, 2009, 03:06:56 PM
Quote
I'd like to point out, affinity, that if I were trying to cover up painfully obvious mistakes, that I would have admitted to being incorrect long ago about bandwagon/serp's long post.

But this is WIFOM.  It's quite natural and possible for people to cover up mistakes by standing their ground in this game, whether as scum or town, after all.  I did it frequently.  So, nope; the mistakes still have to be covered and factored against you no matter what.

Yes, I agree that you should claim.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 16, 2009, 04:07:31 PM
Oh god this is long! (Went right to bed after I got home, slept for 13 hours straight).

I'll respond in a bit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 16, 2009, 04:51:20 PM
First, I'm not so certain of my vote on donut anymore. I still like my theory, but it's that I don't see donut really pulling it off. I figure he would be acting a little more proactive if that was the case and, in what is mostly a meta point, I don't see him pulling off this kind of ploy so easily.
##Unvote

@pesco, I really don't see how donut's answer could possibly clear him for you, and apparently I'm not the only one. In fact, that same answer made him scummier in the eyes of everyone else. And you unvoted him  to vote Kiro just because you wanted him to explain a comment?
All you posted afterwards regarding this stance were half-assed explanations and smug remarks, which feels strongly scummy.
You did make some valid points about Fusion, but those could be opportunity attacks since thae attention was shifting to him.

As for Nuclear Fusion, he's a mess. For the earlier part of the day he just went around making general comments without bringing much opinion, only thing noteworthy was his defending donut while voting him, which he repeatedly (and ineffectively tried to justify later).
#87 was horrible though. OMGUSing Carthrat and claiming to have found them to be a scumpair was simply preposterous. I doesn't help that Carth was completely right about his vote on Dorian being weak and seeming opportunistic.
Loudly complaining about others having ruined your 'clever plot' was another huge WTF. Others already commented on how this whole idea is scummy and could hardly be useful to town, but what strikes me is that you who rather loudly 'exposed' it yourself, when neither of them had even attacked Serp, just pointed the obvious fact that long posts does not equal towniness. The whole thing makes even less sense because you even said his post had indeed content, so why the heck lure a townie onto a "false feeling of security"?

I'm all for voting either pesco or NF right now, though I want to see Kiro's post and Fusion's claim before. 
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 04:53:50 PM
So I'm the town cop, numbnuts.

Specifically, I'm Battler Ushiromiya (which doesn't mean anything to me) Appearently I am walking awesome.

And I just passed my G test.

So screw all, y'all.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 16, 2009, 06:15:47 PM
Pesco: The part you wanted me to address is in #25 when NF reconfirmed his original joke vote on Donut because he said Donut was serious. Then he also gave himself an out that Donut's vote might have been a joke. Is there a problem with that? That's the first solid accusation in this game and I noted it. Why was this worth voting me for?

Carthrat: Read your explanation on your Zakeri vote. Even if Zakeri's reasoning was plainly as a joke vote, it is his "second" vote which I seemed to gloss over. While I don't necessarily agree with him trying too hard to vote Pesco in particular because Pesco likes votes on him in Day 1, I see why Zakeri can be considered trying too hard to at least fool around. Don't have a problem with you regarding this point.

##Unvote Carthrat

Nuclear Fusion: To cut to the chase, if you were complaining about Nietz and others bandwagoning on Donut and not bothering to move your vote because it was a joke vote, you've clearly forgotten that you confirmed your vote for Donut in #25. Therefore, your continued defense of that is no good. Other points of suspicion include an immediate clear of Serpentarius after his post. Liking grand schemes and baseless accusations also is no good. I also don't like how you're mainly just defending yourself and not scumhunting much at all.

Not sure what to make of the claim. Your actions are a little too outlandish for that to be of a cop who would probably prefer to work more in the shadows. Also, your hinting at wanting to claim for a few posts back pretty much scared off any people actually willing to vote you from which Town could have drawn some bandwagon analysis from in the future. Your attitude doesn't help much either; you've not desperate enough to avoid the lynch without worrying about claiming and your claim post itself gives me a "I told you so" vibe as if you expect us to take it for granted after all the questioning against you. I figured the Town Cop being threatened with a lynch would have argued better than that.

I'd like a response from you about your #25 and perhaps another case of whom you think is Scum. You've only mentioned Dorian, anyone else? At the moment, I don't think the claim adds up and I'm willing to lynch you despite your claim.

To note, if NF flips scum later, I can see Zakeri being a scumbuddy. I have some misgivings on Zakeri after I thought more about Carthrat's vote on Zakeri. And while analyzing people in his #86 and #88, he votes Pesco over NF despite the actual post seeming to have stronger evidence against NF. He has since remained on Pesco despite some back and forth between him and NF subsequently where there is more disagreement than agreement between them. Dorian has to contribute more lest we let him pass by as lurker scum. Nobody else is an immediate worry to me at the moment.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 06:38:38 PM
Donut's posts between my vote and unvote: One (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42285#msg42285), two (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42286#msg42286)

My post (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42322#msg42322)

My words there were: Good enough for me
My words there were NOT: Donut is cleared; Donut is not scum; Feels town;

My conclusion is that Donut being an idiot is not likely scum.

Quote from: Rou 104
He responded with an accusation against you. It's the most direct form of chainsaw possible, with the target accusing the attacker personally. So why did you back off because he was saying bad things about you?

...

And unvotes. Donut never argued about why he was Town, he just turned the chessboard over and made it an attack on Pesco. Why is that worth clearing him for?

What's he defending with the chainsaw? I don't see why I should keep pressuring him if he's just spewing idiotic nonsense, which is where I don't see scummy intent.

You put too much stock in that backing off someone means it's a clear/pass. Why do you seem to ignore the other line here:
Quote from: Pesco 100
I felt Donut wasn't scummy by then, he was simply being an idiot (yay more insults!). The unvote is my stance and I'll revote him when I think he's scummy.

Quote from: Affinity 106
How was it acceptable?  How was it not of scummy intent?

Just like how we expect WoTs from FAV, elaborate doc claims from Alice and bad grammar from Wrathie, Donut's post said 'Lost Fool' to me. It's that razor where it's not malice if it can be explained by stupidity.

Ninja'd by Kiro, excuse me while I go hang myself in shame :P

Quote from: Kiro
Pesco: The part you wanted me to address is in #25 when NF reconfirmed his original joke vote on Donut because he said Donut was serious. Then he also gave himself an out that Donut's vote might have been a joke. Is there a problem with that? That's the first solid accusation in this game and I noted it. Why was this worth voting me for?

I read that post as sarcasm and RVS crap. You saying he left himself an out is interesting and I didn't consider that. I doubt the most of us had seen it that way at all.

Why vote you, FirstPostMindHax. I never really liked the way you made your confirm post. Possibly also the effect of Donut being a (9), your response had a feel of 'disarming moe' (stuff that makes you go 'D'aaaaawww' and not want to kick it) to it. My vote took on being a prod thereafter so I was fine with keeping it there to fulfill that purpose.

With the nice post
##Unvote
##Vote NF


As Kiro has said, the claim isn't too believable. There is an example of good cop play in the archives, look for the first game that Serp is mentioned in.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 07:16:22 PM
Swing and a miss, Pesco. Let me repeat this again to see if I can get an upfront answer out of you for a change.

You voted Donut with an accusation of being too jumpy about getting out of the RVS. Donut responded by saying that you clearly really wanted to end the RVS and then going off on a tangent and voting Kiro. You proceed to also back off and go for Kiro.

Synopsis:
Pesco: "This is suspicious"
Donut: "No it's not"
Pesco: "OK"

You've now proceeded to change the subject again by focusing on the technicalities of whether or not he was clear. The fact remains you unvoted him, citing no reason other than 'good enough' and when pressed stated 'he's an idiot, therefore nothing he does is worth analysing'.

Quote
What's he defending with the chainsaw? I don't see why I should keep pressuring him if he's just spewing idiotic nonsense, which is where I don't see scummy intent.
You attacked him for being jumpy and aggressive. He attacked back rather than defending himself. That's chainsaw.

If you thought he was being an idiot, why didn't you just say something along the lines of 'Donut looks lost, so it's not a scumtell' instead of 'good enough for me' which implies that you think his answer is sufficient? The 'he's an idiot' response takes several posts to emerge, which leads me to think it's been made up after the fact.

In other news, NF's cop claim is iffy, but it's risky enough to make me warrant a Pesco lynch over him. No complaints with where my vote is sitting right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 07:30:45 PM
Quote
You voted Donut with an accusation of being too jumpy about getting out of the RVS. Donut responded by saying that you clearly really wanted to end the RVS and then going off on a tangent and voting Kiro. You proceed to also back off and go for Kiro.

...

If you thought he was being an idiot, why didn't you just say something along the lines of 'Donut looks lost, so it's not a scumtell' instead of 'good enough for me' which implies that you think his answer is sufficient? The 'he's an idiot' response takes several posts to emerge, which leads me to think it's been made up after the fact.

That's speculation on your part of what I meant when I said he was jumpy. True that I didn't say anything at the time, but why should you decide on your own that I must have meant the underlined? It's quite meaningless for me to explain what I meant in that post now, so you'll just have to take the words literally. Like how you would do when you think the person is town and therefore saying things in ways they think is clear.

Do YOU think his answer is good enough? I doubt you think so, therefore how is my answer of 'Good enough for me' bad? It means exactly that it's good enough for me to consider sufficient irrespective of what you think. Answering how you've suggested is the way to respond if I wanted to convince others that his answer was fine. He has the responsibility of making his answer okay for you guys, as I said, I had already accepted.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 07:45:55 PM
Quote
That's speculation on your part of what I meant when I said he was jumpy. True that I didn't say anything at the time, but why should you decide on your own that I must have meant the underlined?
Why is it my fault that you weren't being clear about what you meant and thus apparently got misinterpreted?

Quote
It's quite meaningless for me to explain what I meant in that post now
Of course. Because not explaining what you say is entirely pro-Town. >_>

Quote
Do YOU think his answer is good enough? I doubt you think so, therefore how is my answer of 'Good enough for me' bad?
Because, well...it isn't? Donut didn't respond to your accusation in any way, he just pointed out a flaw in your play. That isn't a reason to consider him any less scummy, and that's what I don't understand.

Quote
He has the responsibility of making his answer okay for you guys
So what, you want him to come out and say to us 'hey guys, I was all jumpy earlier because I'm an idiot so don't vote me'?

REALLY want to see a Pesco lynch now. Deflecting the blame for his own imprecise wording onto the people reading it is insanely scummy IMO.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 16, 2009, 07:52:07 PM
Quote
Pesco's post.
Urngh...
I don't know what you want by being a smug smartass, pesco. But if it's clearing yourself, you're certainly doing it wrong. In fact, you seem to be doing everything possible to look scummy.

NF cop claiming was no surprise, but it certainly adds a layer of WTFness to the whole "grand scheme" of tricking scum into making mistakes and to the baseless scumpair accusations when he could just investigate these things instead.

Right now I'd still vote for either pesco or Fusion, but I want a new votecount before.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 16, 2009, 07:52:53 PM
yes that was a hell to read!

first:
Nuclear Fusion is real focused on me and trys hard to justify his vote.
even too hard to be scum, at last I expect a bit more suptality.
It look like you are so sure about my guilt that you don?t care about to arouse suspicion
by pressing that hard. I understand your "wall = pro" towne point even when I?m not realy agree but to say "is better to lynch a-good-for-nothing towney than a helpfull-mafioso" goes way
too far.

hawever, pass for being waaaaaaaay too suspicious.(for now)

second:
I like to think of you all as nice and understanding and I don?t want to look
unthankful but whan one after another jumps in to defend me (the weak-newbe point aside)
it makes me look suspicious.

third:
The whole pesco-donat thing gif me a headache.
donat joke-vote pesco, pesco "serious"-vote donat for a weak reason.
After both set it aside as a jok/mistake they vote kiro for a reson I fail to see.

##Unvote,
##Vote: donat

##Vote Nuclear Fusion

I'm a little light on other reasons, but this is something that really caught my attention. This whole thing you said just rings WTF to me. You're basically not going to pursue someone who puts any effort into their posts. What if they make a fatal slip-up, which is more likely in a long post? Wouldn't you rather lynch a suspicious person so that their information holds some hard value? I don't care what play style you have, this just screams anti-town to me.
For jumping on the "That" too motivated.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 08:00:51 PM
Quote
hawever, pass for being waaaaaaaay too suspicious.(for now)
T_T
The inverse Too Townie fallacy strikes again.

Dorian...really doesn't seem to know what's happening. I'll ask him this, though - you seem suspicious of both Pesco and Donut, but why are you more suspicious of Donut?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 08:01:32 PM
EBWOP: By which I mean I don't get the 'jumping on the THAT too motivated' point.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 08:13:48 PM
I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.

Why is it my fault that you weren't being clear about what you meant and thus apparently got misinterpreted?

Of course. Because not explaining what you say is entirely pro-Town. >_>

Because, well...it isn't? Donut didn't respond to your accusation in any way, he just pointed out a flaw in your play. That isn't a reason to consider him any less scummy, and that's what I don't understand.

So what, you want him to come out and say to us 'hey guys, I was all jumpy earlier because I'm an idiot so don't vote me'?

REALLY want to see a Pesco lynch now. Deflecting the blame for his own imprecise wording onto the people reading it is insanely scummy IMO.


It's your fault that you ran with the misinterpretation and never thought to ask clearly first.

Explaining is subject to more misinterpretation and nitpicking, so I'm stopping it here.

You're talking yourself into circles. His response was idiotic, I concluded not likely to be scum. Figure out your synapses on your own.

His answer was fine by my book, what do I care if you don't like his answer.

"IMO" ... Rou, why do I have to fight with you even when I'm town. Prove to me that there hasn't been any tunnel bias in your opinions.

Quote from: Nietz
I don't know what you want by being a smug smartass, pesco. But if it's clearing yourself, you're certainly doing it wrong. In fact, you seem to be doing everything possible to look scummy.

I'm only a jerk to Rou and Donut, people I'm comfortable with being a jerk to.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 08:17:11 PM
I'm not trying to necessarily defend Pesco, but let me get this straight Roukanken: You want to lynch him on the basis that he took my being an idiot as good enough to back off? I said from the very first post I made on the subject that I wasn't really accusing Pesco of anything, and whatever I said apparently convinced him of otherwise. I don't see how this is making Pesco more suspicious than NF right now. Not to reopen old wounds, but the only thing I see this as is a lover's spat.

Quote
Because, well...it isn't? Donut didn't respond to your accusation in any way, he just pointed out a flaw in your play. That isn't a reason to consider him any less scummy, and that's what I don't understand.

I responded to it in my own way: A way that only makes sense to me and in hindsight, really didn't answer his questions. >_> My only defense to "drawing so much attention to myself" is that I thought it was still the RVS.

As for NF's claim, I don't really like it either. However, I'm not sure if I should keep my vote on him or not. He's still by far the scummiest player I can see, but from what I see if we leave him alive three things can happen:

1. Mafia NKs him. He's telling the truth and we lose a cop
2. Mafia leaves him alive for whatever reason and he starts talking. We have a live cop who can help us
3. He lives and starts feeding us false information, because he's Mafia

Two out of these three options are desirable. Of course we'd want a confirmed cop helping us, and if there's a doctor role we can keep him alive. But also if it is the third case, a Mafia fakeclaiming as a cop is doomed to get found out sooner or later.

So, I bet I'll regret doing this, but ##Unvote. If someone can point out a flaw in my logic I'll put my vote back on him, but ATM I see it as more valuable to keep him alive.

Cut by four people (EVERYBODY CUTS ME! /wrists), but Dorian's vote just confuses me.

Quote
For jumping on the "That" too motivated.

...What does that even mean? Please explain the meaning behind this sentence.

Quote
hawever, pass for being waaaaaaaay too suspicious.(for now)

/me cuts his wrists even harder from this remark

Suddenly I'm suspecting Dorian and I don't know why. I know better than to vote on a gut instinct though, so I'll just leave it as an unexplained suspicion.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 08:21:48 PM
Which of those 3 options are the 2 desirable ones? I only see one.

[cracktheory]Dorian is Wrathie's alt :V[/cracktheory]
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 08:24:26 PM
Leaving him alive and he's a genuine cop and leaving him alive and it's a fakeclaim. Of course the only way to tell them apart is if he inspects someone and they turn out to actually BE scum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 08:39:31 PM
It's your fault that you ran with the misinterpretation and never thought to ask clearly first.
So you can be as muddy as you like and it's perfectly okay? I read your point as I interpreted it, and apparently got it wrong, but if you'd just be clearer it wouldn't have happened.

Quote
Explaining is subject to more misinterpretation and nitpicking, so I'm stopping it here.
This is insanely scummy. Not giving a solid explanation allows scum to produce an escape route if need be because their position is flexible. They can come up with all sorts of explanations for what they did because they can't be held to anything.

Quote
You're talking yourself into circles. His response was idiotic, I concluded not likely to be scum. Figure out your synapses on your own.
Where did you say this? 'Good enough for me' does NOT suggest this sort of response, which is the point I've been making all day.

Quote
His answer was fine by my book, what do I care if you don't like his answer.
This is not the religion thread. Opinions are not totally and utterly untouchable, because in the end there are concrete townies and mafiosi. Therefore I have every right to disapprove of your opinion, in the same way that other players disapproved of NF clearing Serp so easily.

Quote
"IMO" ... Rou, why do I have to fight with you even when I'm town. Prove to me that there hasn't been any tunnel bias in your opinions.
Besides the fact you've been deliberately antagonising me so that this argument looks like a petty quarrel, this is blatantly attacking the player rather than the argument.

I'm not trying to necessarily defend Pesco, but let me get this straight Roukanken: You want to lynch him on the basis that he took my being an idiot as good enough to back off? I said from the very first post I made on the subject that I wasn't really accusing Pesco of anything, and whatever I said apparently convinced him of otherwise. I don't see how this is making Pesco more suspicious than NF right now. Not to reopen old wounds, but the only thing I see this as is a lover's spat.
Let me explain this AGAIN as a summary of my entire argument against Pesco, for the sake of clarity:
Pesco initially gave no explanation besides 'good enough for me' for unvoting you when you did nothing to defend yourself.
Pesco's reasoning for removing his vote on you magically changed somewhere down the line from 'his response was good enough for me' to 'he's being an idiot', and he's failing to explain why.
He's flaring up the conversation for the sake of using 'Rou is tunneling' as an alibi, and he's outright refusing to explain himself because apparently he doesn't want his reasoning to go under scrutiny.
He deflects the blame from this onto us for not accepting his opinion as untouchable.

Quote
Suddenly I'm suspecting Dorian and I don't know why. I know better than to vote on a gut instinct though, so I'll just leave it as an unexplained suspicion.
Major points lost for going for the easy target, especially on gut. Old memories of my Pesco/Donut scumpair theory are rising to the surface again.

I've made my points, I've made my argument. I intend to avoid feeding the troll from this point on unless absolutely necessary, since now he's simply resorting to personal attacks. If anyone else wants to say something on the matter, it'd certainly help.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 08:40:00 PM

Nuclear Fusion: To cut to the chase, if you were complaining about Nietz and others bandwagoning on Donut and not bothering to move your vote because it was a joke vote, you've clearly forgotten that you confirmed your vote for Donut in #25. Therefore, your continued defense of that is no good. Other points of suspicion include an immediate clear of Serpentarius after his post. Liking grand schemes and baseless accusations also is no good. I also don't like how you're mainly just defending yourself and not scumhunting much at all.


A) I'm defending myself because everybody is on my case. If I try to just say "oh hey look I think he is scum" then you would call the deflection. I can't win either way in this case, so I'd rather defend myself to prevent the town from lynching the cop.

B) The confirm vote on donut was still part of RVS.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 16, 2009, 08:40:37 PM
Right now I'd still vote for either pesco or Fusion, but I want a new votecount before.
Ask and thou shalt recieve, the Witches of Rokkenjima are kind to those who believe in them.

Beatrice! Maga crudele!
Di bellezza senza pari
Beatrice! Oh Di dolcezza capricciosa
Mai potr? liberarmi dal tuo incantesimo
Se questa pena deve durare, almeno una volta abbi piet?
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsOmgr3q4sA&fmt=18)

Day 1 Vote Count - 1 day and 8 hours remaining:
Nuclear Fusion (3): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
pesco (2): - Roukanken, Zakeri
donut (2): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian
Dorian (1): - Nuclear Fusion
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Not voting: Nietz, Kiro, donut
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 08:51:13 PM
Roukanken, let me try and clear up what Pesco means:

Quote
Pesco's reasoning for removing his vote on you magically changed somewhere down the line from 'his response was good enough for me' to 'he's being an idiot', and he's failing to explain why.

If I have it right, my explanation was good enough for him because I'm being an idiot.

Quote
This is insanely scummy. Not giving a solid explanation allows scum to produce an escape route if need be because their position is flexible. They can come up with all sorts of explanations for what they did because they can't be held to anything.

Or he's stopping because if you put all his posts together his point makes sense and he's tired of trying to explain it to you. At least that's what I'd think if I were Pesco. *shudders*

Quote
Major points lost for going for the easy target, especially on gut. Old memories of my Pesco/Donut scumpair theory are rising to the surface again.

Uh...didn't I say I WASN'T going after him BECAUSE it's a bad idea to do it on gut? >_>

Just to get my thoughts out of the way, I'm not buying Roukanken's case on Pesco at all. In my eyes Pesco is currently one of the more townish people here for once. Roukanken seems to be misguided town, and NF is either scum hiding behind a fakeclaim or a cop playing in one of the worst ways possible. Everybody else I don't have much of an opinion on.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 08:56:48 PM
I'm guessing names in italics mean they unvoted?

At Dorian's post - I'm sensing deflection here. Saying I'm trying to hard to vote for you ignores the case I'm trying to present. So rather than address the points I've made, you've just dismissed the whole thing. Clever.

Furthermore, a lot of his post feels like rehashing again. If I'm missing something new here, people, please point it out to me.

My vote stands on Dorian. It seems a good night's sleep really didn't do much for his game play.

Other things to note -

For the potential of me getting doced tonight (if I make it through the day) - This is massive WIFOM territory. Massive.

Who I think is scum - right now? Mostly? Dorian. I'm not buying the idiot theory, and he's dodged my accusations at him twice now.
A follow up? Rouk or Carthrat are giving me negative vibes. And I can't really place why, so I need to look up their posts when I'm done celebrating.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 08:57:43 PM
Quote
If I have it right, my explanation was good enough for him because I'm being an idiot.
What exactly does this mean? You're an idiot, and therefore you posted an intelligent and logical response?

Quote
Or he's stopping because if you put all his posts together his point makes sense and he's tired of trying to explain it to you. At least that's what I'd think if I were Pesco. *shudders*
Why does he need to make me read between the lines to find his opinion rather than just say it outright?

Quote
Uh...didn't I say I WASN'T going after him BECAUSE it's a bad idea to do it on gut? >_>
Still, suddenly turning on him for doing what he's been doing all game feels bad to me.

So, as we can now see Donut is running to Pesco's aid. This sends my scumpair suspicions through the roof.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 09:00:14 PM
Nope, you started it (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg41977#msg41977)

Quote
So you can be as muddy as you like and it's perfectly okay? I read your point as I interpreted it, and apparently got it wrong, but if you'd just be clearer it wouldn't have happened.

I believe I made clarifications to what you were saying I said, usually right after your posts.

Quote
This is insanely scummy. Not giving a solid explanation allows scum to produce an escape route if need be because their position is flexible. They can come up with all sorts of explanations for what they did because they can't be held to anything.

Because giving an explanation now results in the converse. Scum can claim that I'm backtracking on what I meant with misrep. That is my answer, there is no middle ground to this point.

Quote
This is not the religion thread. Opinions are not totally and utterly untouchable, because in the end there are concrete townies and mafiosi. Therefore I have every right to disapprove of your opinion, in the same way that other players disapproved of NF clearing Serp so easily.

What I think of Donut's answer is separate from what you think of Donut's answer. You can dislike what I think all day, that too still remains a separate issue from what you think of Donut.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 09:02:34 PM
Quote from: rouk
Why does he need to make me read between the lines to find his opinion rather than just say it outright?

Because apparently it's scummy to reiterate your opinion when somebody thinks it's invalid.  ::)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 09:10:17 PM
Nope, you started it (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg41977#msg41977)
If you are seriously attempting to use this as an argument, I'm done explaining myself. I've made my case perfectly clear, and continuing will produce nothing worthwhile.

NF: I assume then that you agree with Pesco's argument? And honestly, I'd like to see other people give opinions rather than sit back and watch.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 09:18:27 PM
I agree soley with Pesco's point here. It seems that if you try to explain yourself, no matter how much your repeat your reasoning, people are still inclined to hate you for it.

This is because people are arguing based on what they think is a rational explanation for what the town should do. Yet every townie will have a different reason for doing what they do and a different style of being townie. This is what makes "scum tells" such a difficult thing, and why they very rarely exist.

Backtracking is a classic scum tell. Repeating your point again and again is a scum tell. Deflection is a scum tell. Ignoring something is a scum tell. Giving up is a scum tell.

I've heard all of these at some point. This doesn't make any sense, though, since town do these things also. What makes one thing more scummy than the other? Each player will decide, and work on that.

Flailing, however, is a scum tell I think we can all agree on.

Pesco isn't flailing. And Rouk is seriously trying to get more information out of him, and that search feels genuine. I'm reading both of them as townies fighting with each other, with donut trying to buddy up a little by defending Pesco.

For the record, I consider the following a scum tell - Player A answers a question directed at Player B by Player C. Also, if Player A defends Player B from an accusation by Player C.

Yes, weighing in your opinion on something is good, and it should be done frequently and often in mafia. But to defend somebody before they have the chance to defend themselves provides cover for scum. This is a bad thing.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 09:20:11 PM
[nongamerelated]I should be allowed to get fed up with you too. Neither of us want to play the game getting angry at each other all the time I would hope.[/nongamerelated]

Why does he need to make me read between the lines to find his opinion rather than just say it outright?

Maybe you're just expecting to read beyond my words all the time and automatically do so. Get out of that habit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 09:24:06 PM
For the record, I consider the following a scum tell - Player A answers a question directed at Player B by Player C. Also, if Player A defends Player B from an accusation by Player C.

Donut's done some and so have you now. Would I not be justified in confirming my vote?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 09:24:23 PM
Quote
[nongamerelated]I should be allowed to get fed up with you too. Neither of us want to play the game getting angry at each other all the time I would hope.[/nongamerelated]
Then why exactly do you keep deliberately goading me on? You're obviously enjoying this.

Quote
Maybe you're just expecting to read beyond my words all the time and automatically do so. Get out of that habit.
Before you told me I read your posts too literally. Now you're saying I'm trying too hard to find a hidden meaning?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 09:28:23 PM
For the record, I consider the following a scum tell - Player A answers a question directed at Player B by Player C. Also, if Player A defends Player B from an accusation by Player C.

Donut's done some and so have you now. Would I not be justified in confirming my vote?

When did I do this yet this game? I'm actually curious if you could point it out to me. The now makes me think you think I just did it, which is funny, because I was addressing a question directed at me by Rouk, so I actually -wouldn't- have done it just now.

But ya, please, enlighten me on when I did it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 16, 2009, 09:28:41 PM
I'm done for the night, because the longer I stay here the less relevant the argument is going to become. I'd really appreciate some more people to comment on this argument besides Donut (who jumped in and defended Pesco in his place) and NF (who's dismissed the whole thing as a matter of opinion). >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 09:35:54 PM
But ya, please, enlighten me on when I did it.

Right that post, number 136.

Quote from: The part in question
Pesco isn't flailing. And Rouk is seriously trying to get more information out of him, and that search feels genuine. I'm reading both of them as townies fighting with each other, with donut trying to buddy up a little by defending Pesco.

This seems like buddying it up to me and Rou in the same go.

Then why exactly do you keep deliberately goading me on? You're obviously enjoying this.

Before you told me I read your posts too literally. Now you're saying I'm trying too hard to find a hidden meaning?

Assume = ASS + U + ME, choice words of 'deliberately' and 'obviously'.

I don't get how you can misunderstand what I say if you were taking the words literally.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 09:40:02 PM
Quote from: Pesco

Quote from: The part in question
Pesco isn't flailing. And Rouk is seriously trying to get more information out of him, and that search feels genuine. I'm reading both of them as townies fighting with each other, with donut trying to buddy up a little by defending Pesco.

This seems like buddying it up to me and Rou in the same go.

And it's also me giving my opinion! How's that for doing two things at the same time? Crazy! Something could be interpreted in two ways! I don't think I've ever thought of that before while playing mafia and ... OH WAIT
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 16, 2009, 09:42:07 PM
I'm guessing names in italics mean they unvoted?
Yes.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 16, 2009, 09:45:31 PM
We can moderate posts Alice. Abuse that power a little sometimes.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 16, 2009, 10:46:06 PM
Quote
I'm defending myself because everybody is on my case. If I try to just say "oh hey look I think he is scum" then you would call the deflection. I can't win either way in this case, so I'd rather defend myself to prevent the town from lynching the cop.

Offense is the best defence.  Seriously, turning out a solid case on someone is far better than trying to explain yourself, because it shows that you have a solid stance, really.

And I laugh at your declaration that scumtells very rarely exist.  By your definition, flialing shouldn't be counted either, because town can flail too.  While, yes, town do make scumtells sometimes, the fact that it narrows down town's range of targets gives us something to work from.  Lynching weak town is preferable to lynching more helpful ones. This kind of 'everything can be explained by opinion thing' is sickening at best, really, and reminds me of UK.  Unpleasant AtE like the above is also undesirable; why is donut not scummy if he's buddying up with pesco?

Also, how is not answering accusations a scumtell by your definition?  I'm not convinced by your claim, as it makes your way of playing all the more distrubing and unfruitful.  But I will withold judgment for now and look at the night results.

##Unvote

---

@pesco:

I have to admit that, as Rou said, you said nothing of the explanations you gave later at the point where you posted that post, which kind of makes it slightly scummy at best.

---

@donut:

Dorian, aside from his seemingly incoherent post, makes a good point.  What I understand from his voting reasons is that you seemed to jump onto the NF bandwagon for a single reason, which was that his 'effort always deserves to get by" was scummy.  How was this different from the 'I overlook long posts because they show effort' thing he said earlier, which you questioned in a rather friendly way?

##Vote: donut
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 16, 2009, 10:52:49 PM
Quote from: Donut 98
EBWOP: I also read everything else he had to say BTW, but it's all flashing "suspicious" to me.

Basically, this was to keep me from having to repeat what people before me had said. I bought into the case and was too lazy to parrot what everybody before me said.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 16, 2009, 10:57:45 PM

Offense is the best defence.  Seriously, turning out a solid case on someone is far better than trying to explain yourself, because it shows that you have a solid stance, really.


I'll keep this in mind for the next time I play. However, I completely disagree with you on this. I also agree with you on the subject of flailing.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Dorian White on July 16, 2009, 11:42:54 PM
Quote
hawever, pass for being waaaaaaaay too suspicious.(for now)
T_T
The inverse Too Townie fallacy strikes again.

Dorian...really doesn't seem to know what's happening. I'll ask him this, though - you seem suspicious of both Pesco and Donut, but why are you more suspicious of Donut?
EBWOP: By which I mean I don't get the 'jumping on the THAT too motivated' point.
...What does that even mean? Please explain the meaning behind this sentence.
Dorian, aside from his seemingly incoherent post, makes a good point.  What I understand from his voting reasons is that you seemed to jump onto the NF bandwagon for a single reason, which was that his 'effort always deserves to get by" was scummy.  How was this different from the 'I overlook long posts because they show effort' thing he said earlier, which you questioned in a rather friendly way?
I know it is a cheap way to answer but that was exactly me point.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 17, 2009, 12:08:51 AM
[cracktheory]Dorian is Wrathie's alt :V[/cracktheory]
Count me subscribed.

But I definitely see his point on donut, I also noticed the timing of his jumping on NF's wagon. I don't think it necessarily makes him scummy, it did feels like he was trying to get the attention off him but townies can do that too, and in fact it looked like a pretty bad moment to bus a scumpartner, so I expected a NF flip to sort some light over him.

For all the space that it took in the last page, the pesco/Rou argument did little to nothing to advance the situation. pesco's situation, that is. All I get from you is that you are not willing to act pro-town in this game. And judging by past experience, you're being the exact kind of anti-town you are when being scum.

As I mentioned, I don't like Fusion's claim, specially in light of his play so far, and I think waiting to see how tomorrow plays out will likely only bring WIFOM. Even so, I'm still a little more inclined to lynch with pesco and deal with Nf tomorrow, so:

##Vote pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 12:11:09 AM
So hey guys, since Dorian is ignoring me, does that make him not scummy?

...

I wish the emote I wanted right now was here. It's :omg: and it would be perfect for this situation.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 17, 2009, 12:20:51 AM
Copclaim? Unprecedented

I guess we shouldn't lynch him, now. ##Unvote, and I kneejerk want to lynch pesco for pressing onwards despite a copclaim being in the works. Regardless of how horrible UF looks, lynching him with claim in hand is unwise. At least Donut seems to have the right idea, not gonna want to lynch him over pesco, as the votes seem to be indicating at present.

Leaving Pesco's ostensible reasons for dropping suspicion on Donut aside, btw, it really grates that he couldn't just give his reason to Rou in the first place. "I dropped my vote because he's okay now" sums up the initial response, and it takes about a page and a half before any real clarification is done. I'm not liking how this got strung out, and the content of his page 4 posts is so.. whiny.

Quote from: Pesco
Rou, why do I have to fight with you even when I'm town. Prove to me that there hasn't been any tunnel bias in your opinions.
like this. But I trace Rou's arguments and his train of thought seems very natural, soooo.

##Vote: Pesco, here.

Neitz is kinda chilling and just hanging out, waiting for the right moment to pick one of his two targets without committing. I'm very leery of him at present. Kiro also loses points for saying he's willing to lynch UF despite his claim.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 01:37:51 AM
Well, this is a mess.  I suppose we should give Nuke a pass for today.  If he's still alive tomorrow, we'll see what he produces.

As for our other options, the whole Pesco versus Roukanken thing reminds me of their spat two games ago.  Then again, Pesco was scum that game, so maybe that's not a bad thing.  The initial case on Pesco isn't that compelling for me - Pesco was just a little vague and gave some alternate (but not necessarily self-contradictory) reasons for his behavior.  His reaction to Roukanken's prodding is a little evasive, though.

Donut has been defending Pesco, but I think that may be justified at this point.  We're running low on time, and so we should be saying why we're dismissing the cases that we don't subscribe to.  I notice that Nuke has also been defending Pesco.  Supposing that we lynch Pesco, then if Pesco flips Town, that dismantles a lot of the case against Donut.  If Pesco flips Scum, then that makes Donut and Nuke both look bad.

As to the Dorian case, there's not much to it, but that's mostly because Dorian himself hasn't said much.  He may be an easy target, but...  the reason he's an easy target is that lurkerscum are a very real possibility, and lurkers in general are a liability in the lategame.  Take all the points you want from me for going after a weak target, but I think we're giving a pass to players who look weak too easily.  If you'll pardon some more meta, Pesco might be behaving a lot like he was two games ago, but Dorian is also looking a lot like UncertainKitten and Mr Alert were, too.

##Unvote
##Vote Dorian G.


Also willing to vote or hammer Pesco if it comes down to it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 17, 2009, 01:56:20 AM
Hmm, now that Serpentarius mentions it, we haven't heard much of anything from Dorian, have we? I've been dismissing him as a newbie this whole time, but him being lurkerscum is indeed a possibility. I don't really like the Pesco bandwagon (though if it comes down to it I'll hammer), so let's see where this goes:

##Vote Dorian G
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 01:58:52 AM
Serp, donut - Screw you guys. I've been saying this for how long now? Why are you both suddenly for it?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 02:21:21 AM
Serp, donut - Screw you guys. I've been saying this for how long now? Why are you both suddenly for it?
There's a big difference between being oddly quiet for 23 hours (which is how long you waited before voting him) and staying oddly quiet for 48 hours (which is how long I waited before voting him).
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 02:23:13 AM
Serp, donut - Screw you guys. I've been saying this for how long now? Why are you both suddenly for it?
There's a big difference between being oddly quiet for 23 hours (which is how long you waited before voting him) and staying oddly quiet for 48 hours (which is how long I waited before voting him).

I'd find this more valid if day didn't have a time limit. As day is just short (and almost up, I think), staying quite for 23 hours is a big problem.

But I can see where you are coming from there.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 17, 2009, 02:55:02 AM
According to the last votecount, we still have a day left, don't worry.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 03:23:02 AM
According to the last votecount, we still have a day left, don't worry.

Oh hey cool, it does say that in the vote count.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 17, 2009, 04:08:56 AM
This is a WoT! Skip to the last 2 paragraphs if you want to see my vote and reason first.

---

What not to like:
-Dorian letting NF go for being "waaaaaaay too suspicious" and not for the copclaim.
-Donut buddying up to Pesco (although that brings up bad memories of Town me buddying up to Town Donut games ago. Even though I was correct, I still would have lynched myself in that situation in hindsight).

---

Re Rou and Pesco: The weird thing about Rou first questioning the Pesco/Donut exchange in #62 is that you tack on the fact that they both switched to me. I don't see why there's a problem with that and it frames your bias into thinking they're acting in concert when they were actually voting me for different reasons. I get that Pesco not making a clear explanation of things is not good, but looking at the situation as a whole, I don't think it's that worthy for you clinging to it all the way to now. The whole thing could have been dropped at Pesco's #68 which looks like the first time he's clarifying it. Rou is definitely a bit tunnely there.

As Serp mentioned, this is exactly like the situation 2 games ago and I pursued Town Roukan before switching to Scum Pesco at the end and that was still a bit of a WTF moment for me when I saw the flip. On the one hand, just like in that game, I wouldn't put it past a possible Scum Roukan in letting this argument drag on at the expense of possible Town Pesco's playstyle that Pesco refuses to correct. On the other hand, my impression of Pesco is that he's acting EXACTLY the same as in that previous game, and this was when I was deluded most of the time into thinking he was Town and Roukan was Scum. For fucks sake, I blame Pesco on this because if he's Town, he knows he's more likely to lose and should stop with the goading regardless of Rou's alignment (he's not voting for Rou in this game just like he wasn't voting for Rou in that game) and if he's Scum, well, he's being a bothersome ass again and not really helping his team out with all the attention.

---

Re Nuclear Fusion:

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion #128
B) The confirm vote on donut was still part of RVS.

Ugh, for the sake of you calling the phase "Do A Trial Balance FirstDicking Around To Be Funny," and the fact you so vehemently defended that you weren't a part of the bandwagon at #74 and #87, I'll take your word at face value on this point.

Also, you say you're actively scumhunting more than others in #94, but you don't have much to show for it other than something simple on Dorian. Your answer to who else is scummy is highly unsatisfactory, naming Roukan and Carthrat for no discernible reason other than bad vibes. If you have time to give us lessons on scumtells like in #136, you have time to refine your suspicions on Roukan and Carthrat. As a whole, I am still not liking your playstyle and how it led up to you hinting at your roleclaim before you even got to L-1. You planned to roleclaim way too early and it feels like something Scum would do faking a claim more than a Town Cop trying to remain hidden until absolutely necessary. You have no reason to assume a Doc even exists in this game to protect you at least once. All of that also doesn't add up to your attempted gambit on Serpentarius.

---HERE'S THE LAST 2 PARAGRAPHS!!!---

Donut's switch to Dorian is a bit of an odd timing. You say in #124 that you're finding Dorian suspicious, but don't want to vote him on a gut instinct. What makes you want to vote him now? Oh I know, cuz Serpentarius just did it in the post right before you. Your words even phrase it as a bit of a piggyback. On the whole, I'm now finding Donut very weird. He's inconsistent on his stance with me in that he didn't unvote me for awhile. There's also an unusual irony between his vote for NF in #97 and in his vote for Dorian in #154 which also gives a comment saying he'll hammer Pesco if he needs to. And just for amusement, you clarify in #158 that we still have plenty of time left so why the worry about hammering Pesco now? All of this after you take the time and effort to defend Pesco beginning with the lines of "I'm not trying to necessarily defend Pesco." If you thought Rou was wrong, it doesn't mean you have to answer for Pesco with assumptions or hypotheticals. So my point is that you've been remarkably lazy in your voting reasons, but you've taken the time to defend a particular person. Finally, you haven't really been scumhunting at all.

All of this got nuts, but I'm pegging Donut as the most unusual now for his overall inconsistencies. I'd take a stronger stance on Pesco/Rou except the damn argument is on something ages ago and is heavily semanticized by now. It seems the NF lynch won't go for today, but I really dislike the leadup as well as the somewhat lack of effort now (commenting from the peanut gallery mostly). And about voting for Dorian... yea... eliminating the liability is always good, but that's not actual scumhunting. I'm a little suspicious Serpentarius chose that route in the end. Serpentarius also did not mention the fact that Dorian let NF pass and not for the copclaim in his reason to vote him.

##Vote nintendonut888
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 04:41:34 AM
And about voting for Dorian... yea... eliminating the liability is always good, but that's not actual scumhunting. I'm a little suspicious Serpentarius chose that route in the end. Serpentarius also did not mention the fact that Dorian let NF pass and not for the copclaim in his reason to vote him.

I know that when you go after a lurker, you're not likely to get much of a response, but we've got just 24 hours left in the day.  We need to shift away from prodding people to get responses and towards putting forward our cases for who we think should be lynched.  The way that the votes fall into place at the end of the day is just as important if not moreso than who prods who and what comes out of that.  As for leaving out the fact that Dorian didn't so much as mention Nuke's claim...  Well, the point is that Dorian hasn't mentioned much at all, and Nuke's copclaim is just one of many things that Dorian hasn't mentioned.

As for Donut, it seems like the case for him being scum hinges on Pesco being scum too.  If that's the case, wouldn't it be smarter to lynch Pesco and then take another look at Donut in light of his flip?  I'd feel better contributing to a Pesco lynch than a Donut one, if Dorian doesn't go through.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 17, 2009, 04:53:58 AM
I'd hoped Dorian would respond before I got called out on my vote, but I see that's more than I should have hoped for. I'm voting Dorian in the hopes that with 3 or so votes he'll actually start talking. I want more information out of him, simple as that.

Quote
Finally, you haven't really been scumhunting at all.

Because I suck at scumhunting. >_> I'm not a very perceptive person, okay? I can try all I want but I can never seem to do it.

Quote
So my point is that you've been remarkably lazy in your voting reasons, but you've taken the time to defend a particular person.

In lieu of having good scumhunting skills, I instead try to defend people I don't think are scummy. Also, if I extend my posts to a full two pages and quote meaningless BS, does that make my votes and their reasons more valid?

Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 17, 2009, 05:36:19 AM
Serp: I'll concede the point about missing the copclaim as neutral as I did assume he had noticed NF's copclaim. You are correct in that he didn't mention it so there's no proof he noted it. As for your comment about "putting forward our cases for who we think should be lynched," Dorian is more lynch worthy than these other people who you have more of their statements to draw upon? I'm not seeing why because he hasn't been THAT unresponsive, just irregular.

As for Donut, it seems like the case for him being scum hinges on Pesco being scum too.  If that's the case, wouldn't it be smarter to lynch Pesco and then take another look at Donut in light of his flip?  I'd feel better contributing to a Pesco lynch than a Donut one, if Dorian doesn't go through.

I'll disagree to that. Donut buddying up to Pesco could be Scum Donut trying to clear Town Pesco and give an "I told you so" vibe if Pesco gets lynched. And of course, there's the chance he's trying to prevent a Scumbuddy Pesco from getting lynched. Pesco's alignment has no bearing on Donut's alignment. I've thought about the two as separate individuals and I'm finding Donut's laziness except for a Pesco defense along with a "I'll hammer Pesco if need be at the end" a greater worry than Pesco's half-evasiveness over a comment Donut made about RVS in the beginning of the game.

Cut by Donut: Do you remember that game when I tried to defend you, 9 Squad Mafia? It was terrible for me, and I recall you not understanding why I was doing it too and I'm sure you didn't know whether I was legit or not. Yea... that's how I see you now regarding Pesco. What's worse is that you're lazy everywhere else which is scummy. Don't make the excuse that because you don't type as much as some people, that your reasons are going to suck in terms of scumhunting. If you'll notice, I'm not voting you because your posts are short.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 17, 2009, 06:04:52 AM
Personally, I think it's amazing I still give a damn about everything and am keeping up. >_>

Clearly I'm not the type who is good at picking things up, or is good at Mafia. Well, either way, I'm done here for today.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 17, 2009, 06:11:27 AM
Votecounts need to come far more often.  At least twice a page.

@donut:

I think it's safe to assume that those who don't know how to find scum are probably scum themselves; I think this is the major problem for that faction.  Thus, I think my vote shall stay, due to his answer to my question and his posts (btw donut the reasons for the NF case were present for a long time before you first pointed out his mistake.  Furthermore, you said that you were light on the other reasons, implying that you didn't really believe themm thus there is a contradiction).

Also,

Quote
I've been dismissing him as a newbie this whole time, but him being lurkerscum is indeed a possibility.

is very bad and smacks of not knowing what to do if you're relying on possibilities as opposed to probabilities (e.g comment more deeply on other cases).  This happened throughout the game. 

---

I feel that Dorian.G gave an original point, and in doing so did more scumhunting than NF ever did.  Quoting my explanation was however pretty lame, and I doubt that you would have explained that way if you explained it yourself.  Thus, I'm willing to judge him another day.

I don't like Nietz for his justification for not finding donut's switch to NF scummy; it smacks of WIFOM when he says he doesn't think it's a good idea to bus, but there is also a simple oversight, since NF is not necessarily scum.  Scum donut may have just been trying to pretend having a stance.

I'm okay with lynching pesco if it comes down to it for above-mentioned reasons.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 17, 2009, 06:14:16 AM
Unofficial votecount: (Now an official votecount ~Alice)

Rumore di onde. La voce del mare come un canto
Ascoltando sembra purificarsi la colpa commessa
Mi culla dolcemente il rumore delle onde
Sereno mi addormento e ho sogni felici
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gK_dy5nUWA&fmt=18)

Day 1 Vote Count - 22 hours remaining:
pesco (4): - Roukanken, Zakeri, Nietz, Carthrat
donut (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian, Affinity, Kiro
Dorian (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Serpentarius, donut
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Not voting: donut
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 17, 2009, 06:28:29 AM
NF really likes to attack people who vote for whoever he's voting for. That seems intuitively uncool.

Kiro: I don't see Roukan as dragging it on.. at all, really. Blame falls squarely on Pesco, here.

I don't understand why Dorian gave NF a pass for being too suspicious. The whole sequence of votes there is decidedly odd. Don't think he's nearly as bad as some notable others after attempting to view his posts without the lens of bad presentation getting in the way.

As for Donut, I can't say I'm happy with him pulling out "I suck at scumhunting and only defend people", that's.. unhelpful. If you're defending someone you're already making judgement calls on person or peoples X being scummier than them, and attacking them is going to do you better. I think it's somewhat unlikely scum would blaisely admit that, but I wouldn't protest his lynch; prefer Pesco at present nonetheless.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 06:34:33 AM
I'm not seeing much for me to answer to due to limited phone view.

Zak needs a prod and an official vote count. I'll assume I'm at L-1 and claim.

Natsuhi, wife of Krauss. A jerkass bitch with well-meaning intentions. And I have aspirins for use at night. Aspirins contain salicylic acid and ease headaches, that's all there is to it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 17, 2009, 06:44:20 AM
Pesco 100 - I would like to think I would target you no matter who you insulted, but I admit your response to Roukan's first post set off major alarms in my head. I must have been traumatized by the last time you told Roukanken he sucked at playing mafia, since I accidentally defended the godmother in that game :V

Quote
it feels to me that you think voting me is a safer lynch to push.
Actually, I think pushing your lynch when I did was less safe than pushing the lynch on Nuke, since "Pesco feels like scum by gut and Nuclear feels like scum by facts".

Quote
I felt Donut wasn't scummy by then, he was simply being an idiot (yay more insults!).
This would be excusable, but it still seems out of place to me for anyone to realize that was true before Donut had everyone explain to him why that reasoning was poor.

Finally, what exactly needs explained that I didn't already note in my post previous?

Post 105-
Quote
(for reasons that I think are retarded, I'll add)
Ad Hominim
Quote
Cause lynching me would be on the list of stupidest things town can do today
Ad Hominim
Quote
So ya, if people want, I'll claim.
Sign of giving up.

Clearly the work of Someone who's cracked under pressure.

I agree with a lot of what Kiro says in 114. The way you treat your cop claim is like it's some sort of get out of jail free card that would send any town riving away in fear of lynching someone who, up until this point seems to be actively choosing to work against the town. It's clear you came here with no intention of taking this game seriously, which unfortunately doesn't work on this forum.

Pesco back and forth with Rou. I see in post 117 that Pesco is trying his hardest to explain his thought process between his vote and unvote of Donut. I'm still skeptical that instead of pressing Donut further, he automatically assumed Occam's Razor at work, then switched to someone else.

Quote
but to say "is better to lynch a-good-for-nothing towney than a helpfull-mafioso" goes way
This is Exactly Right
Quote
hawever, pass for being waaaaaaaay too suspicious.(for now)
This is Exactly WRONG. I can understand meaning to vote for him later, since that's what my plan is as well, but no one is ever too suspicious to not be attacked for it.

Also, there's some confusion but I think "That" Is suppose to refer to a bandwagon. I know this isn't philosophy class, so Dorian needs to explain it exactly.

Post 123 - Seeing Rou's Comments, Rou is starting to sound like an Angry house Wife. Pesco is beginning to redeam himself by trying to explain his thought process, and since I can see how Town Pesco can act the way he did, I'm willing to back off for now.

##Unvote: Pesco
Vote: Nuke (Not an actual vote, since I don't know what the count is right now)

Quote
I'm defending myself because everybody is on my case. If I try to just say "oh hey look I think he is scum" then you would call the deflection. I can't win either way in this case, so I'd rather defend myself to prevent the town from lynching the cop.

Ha Ha, Oh wow.

Okay, let me break this down to you:

1. Defending - Looks Scummy, because the player is putting more emphasis on their own survival over lynching Scum

2. Scum Hunting with baseless accusations - Looks Scummy, because the Player is putting more emphasis on lynching without regards to alignment.

3. Scum Hunting with analysis - Looks Townie, because the player is putting more emphasis on killing scum than protecting them self.

Basically, what you just said is that you feel you should be doing 1 because 2 won't work, and apparently 3 is not an option to be considered. This is only the latest of Several occasions that you highlight your unwillingness to lynch Scum. This is the reason we are voting for you, because you seem to treat the Town as the Enemy here.

I don't know how to make this clearer other than to highlight, italicize, or bold the key phrases in my last paragraph.

Quote
Saying I'm trying to hard to vote for you ignores the case I'm trying to present.
What is the case you are trying to present? All I see is "Dorian isn't posting very often." Which isn't a hard scumtell.

Quote from: Rou
You're obviously enjoying this.
He's obviously not. Trust me, go back and read a few of your points. Pesco has Tried to explain his thought process to you several times, and every time you complain about every individual point. He's also tried to stop this argument, which you then sparked another argument over why not explaining himself is scummy. Which, doesn't even apply, because he's been trying to explain himself the whole time.

You may have a point in your case, but Pesco's reactions are more of someone who's getting a headache from a child yelling at them for ice cream than from someone who's getting caught stealing ice cream. I agree that Persisting of this argument from either you or Pesco will lead no where.

Quote
Quote
Offense is the best defence.  Seriously, turning out a solid case on someone is far better than trying to explain yourself, because it shows that you have a solid stance, really.
However, I completely disagree with you on this.
Why?

Ugh, I'm tired now. I spent five hours on this post.

---tl;dr---
Donut's vote flip can be seen as both scummy bandwagoning and town pressure voting, so I'm considering this a nulltell as well. I'm still Uneasy on Pesco, and I think Rou's case on his is legitimate, but I also feel that Roukanken is trying to antagonize Pesco while playing the victim at the same time. Ultimately, this gives me the exact same feeling as the other game. I'm not planning on making the mistake of Defending Pesco again, but apparently Donut already has. *sigh*

I worry about Nuke. There are only two things I can see him being right now - Scum, or Beilos 2.0. Nothing else.

All in All, I'm not certain where to take my vote now, since the only option I feel strongly one way or the other about is closed off due to not lynching the cop claim is technically better than otherwise. according to Affinity's post which is about to cut me, the bandwagons are Dorian, Pesco, and Donut. The only one I'm entirely unhappy with is Donut.

Cut by Pesco:
Quote
Zak needs a Prod
I need a hug.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 06:57:46 AM
/me gives Zak hugs and pettings
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 07:06:42 AM
Serp: I'll concede the point about missing the copclaim as neutral as I did assume he had noticed NF's copclaim. You are correct in that he didn't mention it so there's no proof he noted it. As for your comment about "putting forward our cases for who we think should be lynched," Dorian is more lynch worthy than these other people who you have more of their statements to draw upon? I'm not seeing why because he hasn't been THAT unresponsive, just irregular.

Dealing with lurkers is tricky business.  Even if Dorian is Town, he's not going to help us much.  I think it has to come down to risk vs. reward.  Now, before you all mob me for pointing this out, keep in mind that we're already acting on this basic maxim.  Nuke has been acting scummy, but we're not lynching him, 'cause he may be our cop.  Similarly, Dorian hasn't been acting (overtly) scummy, but I think he's a good lynch, 'cause he's inconsistent and apparently incapable of really focusing on the game.  I'd rather not enter LYLO with three scum, three relatively committed townies, and one effectively absent player.

Kiro, you still seem to wish for a Nuke lynch, so I get the feeling that you don't like acting on this principle, but I hope you can at least see where I'm coming from.  Picking who to lynch requires balancing more factors than just scummy statements.  Additionally, lurking is a scumtell, just like cracking under the pressure, and I think that puts Dorian at least in the same ballpark as Donut and Pesco.  Honestly, if not for Nuke's copclaim, I'd still favor lynching him over Dorian, though.

Quote from: Kiro
I'll disagree to that. Donut buddying up to Pesco could be Scum Donut trying to clear Town Pesco and give an "I told you so" vibe if Pesco gets lynched. And of course, there's the chance he's trying to prevent a Scumbuddy Pesco from getting lynched. Pesco's alignment has no bearing on Donut's alignment. I've thought about the two as separate individuals and I'm finding Donut's laziness except for a Pesco defense along with a "I'll hammer Pesco if need be at the end" a greater worry than Pesco's half-evasiveness over a comment Donut made about RVS in the beginning of the game.

Well, I suppose Donut being scum wouldn't require Pesco to be scum, but I think it would be a little easier to see that scenario than just one or the other being scum.  One's flip should at least help us look at the other's actions in a different light.  Still, after a quick re-read, I suppose I can see them both acting scummy on their own individual merits.  The way that Donut just kind of rolls over and takes the accusations lying down doesn't exactly help matters either.  Count me as leaning back towards Donut again as a lynch if a Dorian lynch doesn't appeal to enough people.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 17, 2009, 07:27:21 AM
Zakeri: Please do not vote or prepare to vote for the copclaim. We can always lynch him later if it comes down to it, and there is a non-trivial chance that he is a cop and may hit scum tonight, and assorted night-role stuff may well come into play that we can't possibly predict (beyond two particularly obvious actions; protect and/or kill.)

This is just as bad as pesco was earlier, and regardless of any accompanying rationale, it is a pro-scum position to support. This goes for anyone who's done the same that I've somehow missed.

<->

On Dorian: Serp brought up 'but he could be a liability in lategame!', which is trash reasoning as is (and seems like an excuse not to scumhunt, frankly)- but to argue along those lines for a sec anyway, I think players like Dorian become far easier to read as the game progresses, particularly as flips come to light. Lynching him now is still a huuuuuge crapshoot.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 07:37:21 AM
Let's get this out there too. My flip has no bearing on what Donut may be. Wagon analysis is all you're going to get.

My point on insults should have asked this, is it still scummy of me when I specifically insult Rou or Donut. No real need to answer this further.

Cut: I'd rather be realistic and not play follow-the-cop. You say give him a chance, which also gives scum greater chances.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 07:47:54 AM
On Dorian: Serp brought up 'but he could be a liability in lategame!', which is trash reasoning as is (and seems like an excuse not to scumhunt, frankly)- but to argue along those lines for a sec anyway, I think players like Dorian become far easier to read as the game progresses, particularly as flips come to light. Lynching him now is still a huuuuuge crapshoot.

Kiro and Zakeri get a pass for voting based on their own internally consistent scumhunting philosophy, but it makes no sense to protect the supposed cop while refusing to lynch the lurker.  Both of those positions take stuff into account beyond scummy posting or lack thereof.  Letting Nuke live 'till tomorrow might help us out further into the game, and letting Dorian live might burn us down the road.  Sure, more stuff might come to light that will make Dorian's position clearer if he lives a few more days, but the same can be said for Donut and Pesco, too.  If anything, only the opposite position makes sense - lynching Nuke and letting Dorian live.  After all, Nuke has been really scummy, while Dorian doesn't have much credit either way.

And, as I've said before, we're past the point in the day where prodding people and seeing what pops up, at least on its own, constitutes good scumhunting.  This is the part where we pick which lynch gives the Town the best chances of winning.

Quote from: Pesco
Let's get this out there too. My flip has no bearing on what Donut may be. Wagon analysis is all you're going to get.

What exactly do you mean by this?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 17, 2009, 07:59:42 AM
Yes yes, I am well aware that I should prepare for the, frankly unlikely, event that Nuke is actually telling the truth. I've already given my theories on what I believe is really happening, so I'm still iffy on the subject. Still, Nuke seems to be trying his hardest to sound and act like a mafioso who doesn't know how to play the game.

I actually agree on the point Carth made on Dorian. Going back to Pesco's crack theory, Dorian's play style really does mimic Wrathie's in that while Wrathie always makes for a good day one lynch no matter what his alignment is, it gradually becomes easier and easier to pick out his motives (Or at least from what I remember my last game as scum, harder and harder to make seem lynchworthy to townies).

Quote
Letting Nuke live 'till tomorrow might help us out further into the game, and letting Dorian live might burn us down the road. 
I guess what I'm failing to see is how this is absolutely true enough that we should go through with Nuke's Philosophy on the situation.
Quote from: The Wise Dorian
but to say "is better to lynch a-good-for-nothing towney than a helpfull-mafioso" goes way too far.
This describes perfectly the Situation we've found ourselves in.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 08:03:20 AM
I expect I'm still prime lynch and would try to clear up the view from my end of the alignment. I know I'm town, Donut could be anything. Get rid of the presuppositions about Donut based on my flip, it's going to be unreliable.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 17, 2009, 08:06:08 AM
@Serp:

However, Dorian raised an original point which I feel was not easy to find, which is more than what NF can say, with his useless politicking; and I think that tells us that he has a clear stance and such.  The 'lurking' argument is horrible when you have not judged his posts in anyway.  Also, you don't seem to regard what Dorian says at all, which worries me, and you seem to making use false delimnas to stick your vote onto someone easy to implicate, which does no favours with me.  Yes, he has bad presentation, but there's the content.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 17, 2009, 09:22:13 AM
I guess what I'm failing to see is how this is absolutely true enough that we should go through with Nuke's Philosophy on the situation.

Please don't conflate my philosophy with Nuke's.  >_>  I'm not saying that it's an absolute truth - if Dorian is town and Nuke is scum, then lynching Dorian and letting Nuke live is a bad idea.  I just think that scumminess of posts needs to be weighted by stuff like roleclaims and activity.  I think that that weighting bumps Nuke below Pesco and Donut as far as lynch priorities, and bumps Dorian above them all.

Quote from: Affinity
However, Dorian raised an original point which I feel was not easy to find, which is more than what NF can say, with his useless politicking; and I think that tells us that he has a clear stance and such.  The 'lurking' argument is horrible when you have not judged his posts in anyway.  Also, you don't seem to regard what Dorian says at all, which worries me, and you seem to making use false delimnas to stick your vote onto someone easy to implicate, which does no favours with me.  Yes, he has bad presentation, but there's the content.

There's been nothing for me to directly respond to.  That point you refer to was just another semantic inconsistency of Donut's, and those aren't terribly rare or difficult to pick out.  I'm not trying to present a false dilemma - all I'm saying is that it seems inconsistent to me for you all to give the supposed cop a free ticket due to his possible future utility while also giving the lurker a free ticket despite his likely future liability even on the off chance that he's a townie.

If this player group has a collective flaw, it's that it penalizes effort.  Someone who takes the trouble to post a full justification of his vote and an analysis of every bandwagon and player is just putting out more words, and between those words there will likely be a bunch of little inconsistencies to pick apart, by virtue of the poster's humanity, not his scumminess.  Sure, it works on some level - scum are more likely to break under the pressure, after all.  It's how Roukanken caught the scum Pesco two games ago.  But the question is, did Pesco fail to defend himself because of his scumminess, or did his failure to defend himself have nothing to do with his affiliation?  That's what I have to ask myself when I see this game following the same track.  If I had been a little less eloquent in that game when Roukanken briefly shifted his attention to me, you all would've lynched your cop on the first day.

It's gotten to the point where clamming up and letting the game pass you by, putting out as little effort as possible, has become a viable survival tactic.  By the time the town thinks that the lurker's silence is suspicious, it's LYLO and they have to choose between lynching two or more people, one of whom they have virtually no data on - because that person is a lurker.  I knew that taking this "easy" (lol) route would catch me some flak, especially explaining my train of thought as thoroughly as I did, but I think it's the best path for the town.

Furthermore, I should point out that of what little he's said, a sizable fraction is scummy.  I don't like reiterating points that have already been made, but if I need to point out specific instances myself, you've got the weird defense of Pesco here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42412#msg42412) and giving a pass to Nuke for being suspicious here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42785#msg42785).  I know it's not a whole lot, but it makes his scummy-statement-to-post ratio the highest here, I think, and shouldn't that be what we're looking at?  His posts could hardly be more scummy without there being more posts to analyze in the first place.

There's your scumhunting.  Go ahead and accuse me of laziness now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 17, 2009, 09:25:38 AM
Quote
Let's get this out there too. My flip has no bearing on what Donut may be. Wagon analysis is all you're going to get.
Okay, so the fact that you both had the shortest argument ever and then proceeded to simultaneously jump to Kiro is completely irrelevant.
Personally? The fact that you're saying this outright disturbs me, and the fact you feel the need to say it AGAIN afterwards is worse:
Quote
I know I'm town, Donut could be anything. Get rid of the presuppositions about Donut based on my flip, it's going to be unreliable.
Defending other players is a scummy action whether the player you're defending is Town or scum.

Natsuhi, wife of Krauss. A jerkass bitch with well-meaning intentions. And I have aspirins for use at night. Aspirins contain salicylic acid and ease headaches, that's all there is to it.
Explains the aspirin reference, but there's also the fact that Natsuhi is a likely suspect for the criminal in Episode 1. So...yeah.

My point on insults should have asked this, is it still scummy of me when I specifically insult Rou or Donut. No real need to answer this further.
I'm intending to answer 'yes' here, simply because insulting players without reason simply makes you look scummy and fails to produce anything useful.

Quote
Pesco has Tried to explain his thought process to you several times, and every time you complain about every individual point. He's also tried to stop this argument, which you then sparked another argument over why not explaining himself is scummy. Which, doesn't even apply, because he's been trying to explain himself the whole time.
I'm seriously starting to get sick of repeating this. I didn't accept Pesco's explanation of his thought process because, from what I can tell, none of said thought process was actually present when he made the vote. If I thought Donut was posting like such an idiot that he couldn't be scum, I wouldn't respond to him with 'Good enough for me' because that implies that I actually think he's posting well. This is the point I've been making all day.

Given his running to Pesco's aid, I'm not against a Donut lynch at this point in time. This is gonna probably be my last post before the PC, though - I'll be away for the rest of the day celebrating my 18th. Later, guys.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 17, 2009, 10:19:38 AM
"Believing oneself to be perfect is often the sign of a delusional mind.
Small words, from a small being, trying to attack what it doesn't understand!"
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93VODUlLuRk&fmt=18)

(Star Trek, in *my* Umineko? It's more likely than you think!)


Day 1 Vote Count - 18 hours remaining:
pesco (3): - Roukanken, Zakeri, Nietz, Carthrat
donut (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian, Affinity, Kiro
Dorian (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Serpentarius, donut
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Not voting: ZaknutZakeri, donut

Edit:

Quote from: Roukanken
Explains the aspirin reference, but there's also the fact that Natsuhi is a likely suspect for the criminal in Episode 1. So...yeah.
All flavour is, as such, flavour, and should be treated accordingly. Also, happy birthday!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 11:11:43 AM
Lies! I thought you were 18 last year.

Happy birthday, hugs and kisses and abuse and beatings ;D

18 hours are going to be gone real quick so get voting if you're still Doing A Trial Balance Form.

4 votes with 3 names on me?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 17, 2009, 04:26:29 PM
I don't like Nietz for his justification for not finding donut's switch to NF scummy; it smacks of WIFOM when he says he doesn't think it's a good idea to bus, but there is also a simple oversight, since NF is not necessarily scum.  Scum donut may have just been trying to pretend having a stance.
As I said, I don't think that action was scummy per se. I can see a townie being eager to vote for a scummy-looking player to get the pressure off him. I don't think that clears donut of everything else though, his overall play has been weak and not very coherent. I'd still put him in the top 3 suspicion list, along with pesco and NF.

I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.
Quote
Natsuhi, wife of Krauss. A jerkass bitch with well-meaning intentions. And I have aspirins for use at night. Aspirins contain salicylic acid and ease headaches, that's all there is to it.
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 04:48:15 PM
NF really likes to attack people who vote for whoever he's voting for. That seems intuitively uncool.
I like to attack everybody  8) It just happens that this game I've attacked people for what I thoughts was a stupid bandwagon attempt

Anyway, I think today requires another read of the thread in it's completeness. So... if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go do that.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 05:16:18 PM
Quote
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

In Shrine Festival, I wrote my own flavour with a bit of mod-manipulation. Look who's in charge of this game and tell me if that's even possible. You're definitely grasping with this point.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 17, 2009, 06:00:45 PM
In Shrine Festival, I wrote my own flavour with a bit of mod-manipulation. Look who's in charge of this game and tell me if that's even possible. You're definitely grasping with this point.

Hey now! Don't make it look like I colluded with you during SF Mafia because I did not. I had a disclaimer at the very beginning that flavor was independent of the game. You were the one who tried to slip that by Town and you were called out on it (even if one of the people calling you out was your scumbuddy) and was lynched. Why you're bringing this up is rather pointless to the grand scheme of this game.

Back to the game: Pesco: Who would you vote for now? It looks like there won't be enough votes for the NF lynch today. You're being strictly defensive now and not scumhunting for a case other than NF.

Serpentarius: Your argument about lurkers is compelling, but let's analyze what's going on in this game. Donut's latest posts are a sign he's being less responsive to the pressure on him and he's ducking from writing up anything. I'd label him a lurker now. Nuclear Fusion has been the same as well, ever since the copclaim. And Pesco's rather clipped posts just now also looks a bit like he's trying to limp through Day 1. All of this is of comparable lurkiness to the case on Dorian you're advocating. However, Dorian is scummy mostly for his non-contribution which to me, weighs less than the cases of the others who are scummy for parts of their activity and THEN are becoming non-contributive. Dorian might not shape up, but then, neither might Donut, NF, or Pesco. That's how I see it for this Day 1.

As for the part about letting lurkers pass, I'll have to disagree with that. Xan was a Town lurker lynched Day 1 in Crawl. Alice was a Scum lurker (if I recall correctly, he hadn't said much that game) set to be lynched Day 1 in GWU which was averted by his fake Doc claim. In recent games, I think MotK has been willing to punish those who are badly lurking, but it's always relative to the actions of those who are actively scummy.

I just had a funny revelation that the spat between Rou and Pesco is not all that dissimilar from the one Nietz and I had last game. Both are too bullheaded to look away from each other and it's distracting the rest of the players. Looks like Rou is gone for the rest of the Day, but if you can't vote Pesco, who's your next candidate? I will disagree with Carthrat and say whether because you refuse to or are unable to, you've tunneled onto Pesco and it's becoming a detriment to Town as I only see passing remarks about Donut which in general is related to the original argument.

Zak's vote will be nice when he gets to it, the sooner the better of course.

@Alice: You need to remove Donut from the list of those who are "not voting".
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 07:21:48 PM
I think Nietz is pretty cool for my vote after NF. Rou's vote is easy to see why. I don't see much reason behind Nietz' vote, all he's got is that he's been saying he would vote me for a while.

Quote from: Nietz vote post
For all the space that it took in the last page, the pesco/Rou argument did little to nothing to advance the situation. pesco's situation, that is. All I get from you is that you are not willing to act pro-town in this game. And judging by past experience, you're being the exact kind of anti-town you are when being scum.
Quote from: Most recent
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.

Quote from: Nietz vote post
As I mentioned, I don't like Fusion's claim, specially in light of his play so far, and I think waiting to see how tomorrow plays out will likely only bring WIFOM. Even so, I'm still a little more inclined to lynch with pesco and deal with Nf tomorrow

He mentions that NF tomorrow is going to be a bunch of WIFOM, so why is he willing to only deal with it tomorrow when things are going to be more confusing?

And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 07:28:37 PM
Quote from: Pesco
Rou, why do I have to fight with you even when I'm town. Prove to me that there hasn't been any tunnel bias in your opinions.
like this. But I trace Rou's arguments and his train of thought seems very natural, soooo.

##Vote: Pesco, here.

Neitz is kinda chilling and just hanging out, waiting for the right moment to pick one of his two targets without committing. I'm very leery of him at present. Kiro also loses points for saying he's willing to lynch UF despite his claim.

Carthrat's vote can be summarized by 'I'll take Rou's side on this, so vote Pesco it is'.

Both these votes essentially stem from agreeing with Rou only, Nietz appears to be a worse offender as he's been caught slacking.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 17, 2009, 08:09:24 PM
Donut: Are you comfortable with Voting Dorian if it leads to his Lynch? Consider all of the implications of Dorian Flipping Town And Flipping Scum before you answer this.

Neitz and Carthrat: Same Question, Except about Pesco.

I'll be on until about 7:30 p.m. EST. I won't be back until after Phase Change when I leave today, but I'll finalize my vote at that time.

More Serious Business to come soon.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 17, 2009, 08:36:34 PM
Er, sorry. I've been a bit not paying attention to the game today. I'm only a bit behind, so I'll catch up before the deadline.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 17, 2009, 09:16:35 PM
I'll be sporadically checking the thread till deadline. Have to think about Pesco as a whole again if I want to consider changing to him. Dorian response would be good of course.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 09:23:09 PM
None of this is in order, by the way.

Zak points ? Ad Hominim my ass. I?m allowed to say that I think something is dumb, and I?m allowed to say that I think an idea is stupid. This is not ad hominim. Learn what ad hominim means. As hominim would be me saying something like ?I think ?you- are an idiot.?
Hey, I didn?t say that, I said the idea was stupid. That is no ad hom.
Defending looks scummy ? I didn?t know that, actually. I disagree with you. Not defending is equally scummy. Offense is not a good defense because the accusations still stand. An accused criminal doesn?t say ?That guy is a bigger crook?. The accused has to defend himself before he can help find real criminals.
I used some analysis. Minor, I?ll admit, but at the time, I did use some analysis. It was at the beginning to the freaking day, when there was nothing to go on. Now, I?d reiterate those same points. Other people have agreed with me too since then. Are they not using analysis either?
Bugger off. I?ll be the first to admit that I have a different style of playing. I think I mentioned it almost right away. I?m just as likely to be town as you are, from where anybody else is standing. All you have is your analysis, and your analysis can be way off. That?s how mafia works. But still, you?d rather lynch a proposed power role on day one, then something else, if only because you feel your analysis is perfect? No. That?s a terrible idea. If anything, you lynch me tomorrow after I give my investigation (if I end up claiming somebody is town). Then you find out I?m telling the truth, and you have a cleared townie. Either that, or I fish up scum at night. Those are the best two options for the town at the moment. The worst is that I am lying, fake claim somebody is town, you lynch me, and I turn up scum. Then you get nothing for trouble, except a lynched scum on day 2, which is still pretty good. So, it comes down to it ? which is the bigger risk for town? Believing me? Or assuming I?m lying?
Scum hunting ? I?ll get right on that.



My claim ? yes, that is a giving up sort of remark, I know. And I did give up. I gave up trying to prove to you that your arguments against more were ridiculous, because I just didn?t feel like repeating the same thing over and over again. The claim was the only option I had left, and so I went with it.
Mafia is Serious Business. I take it seriously, but I?m light hearted about it at the same time. The claim ?isn?t- a free pass, and I know that. I?ve been in this situation before. I get one night to find scum, and even if I succeed, then you guys could just make a case that I sold a scum buddy. I can?t win and I know it, so I?m just going to be going at face value. This is what I do, you don?t like it? Tough.

Zak - Oh man, I forgot about your accidental edit early in the game. Also voted Pesco.
His first real post and second ? they are doozies. He goes through several people he feels are scummy, and gives reasons why he believes this. Top of his lists are Myself, Pesco, and Donut. It?s post 89, and I recommend reading it for yourself. Notes that he didn?t catch any town yet, and caught three scum. Interesting way of phrasing it. He thinks Pesco is scum-pesco and I just blundered into suspicions and am trying to blunder out. Thinks donut could be okay.
Notes I make a baseless accusation of Cart. Tells me why my vote matters so much even if I don?t think it matters where it stands right now. Tells me to actively hunt scum. Tells me to stop being ?cute? with the Serp gambit. Thinks I?m the one who started calling the donut voting a bandwagon (I wasn?t, it was actually Neitz, but hey cool, misrep).

Cart ?(Agreeing with you on the don?t lynch the cop thing. I?m also getting suspicious of people who want me lynched today. I can understand people who think I am scummy. But to actively want to the lynch the claimed cop on day 1 is a big problem in my mind.)
Addresses Kiro, saying why he thinks Zakeri is somebody to watch out for. Doesn?t like how Pesco has a reputation for being lynched day 1, and think it?s not wise to lynch him. Thinks Donut and Pesco have only been joking. Thinks donut should have an opinion now that it?s known that he and kiro weren?t just joking.
Says it?s a problem to give town credit based on long posts without addressing content. Says I?m handicapping my own bandwagon and getting mad at Neitz for weak votes. Mad at me for prodding Dorian, cause Dorian is ?clearly clueless?. (Okay, this is making me suspicious of Dorian and Cart again? notice how he jumps to Dorian?s defense right away, and also notice how he seems to have some knowledge of who is town.)
Gives me four things to chew on. 1) ? Some mistakes aren?t indicative of scum. 2) why he thinks people are suspicious of me ? it?s because I didn?t change my vote until well after my point of contention, it seems. 3) Explains again that dorian is a lackluster player and 4) I shouldn?t be mad that they ruined my master plan of catching potential scum Serp.
Explains that Dorian is just weak, not townie or scummy. That?s the third time he?s jumped on defending Dorian.


Serp ? (Geez, why do I find myself agreeing with you so much? I think it?s because you?re making the same observations I?ve made and then NOT CREDITING ME FOR THEM. I?m noticing a penalization in effort as well, as you put it. And if it doesn?t fit somebody else?s definition of effort, than it must be not scum hunting, which seems to be the worst sin you can commit in mafia on this board.
I?m going to throw in that I have a lynch all lurkers policy. Dorian is not posting enough content for the amount of posting he has done. This is lurking. This is a problem.)
Serious points on his posts now ? thinks RVS ended when I confirmed voted donut. Explains when RVS ends. Is frustrated that few people commented on my case for donut. (I never had a case on donut, though? so ya) Thinks donut?s conduct is weird. Notes donut voted Kiro, that kiro explained his vote, that donut agreed, but that donut didn?t change his vote off kiro. Agrees with Neitz. Says the case on Kiro is fishy. Says that people?s issues with me are only that it?s different techniques. Thinks Neitz and Affinty are scumhunting. Votes Donut. (I disagree here, it does not look like affinity was scum hunting at all. It looks like he took an easy target and rolled with it.) Lists donut and
Pesco as his top scum choices, and tells me to throw my vote around.
Explains that scum should want to extend RVS to waste day. Cross posts with me.

Donut ? Man, I really can?t tell if your first post is RVS or not. Mostly because it?s a response to me voting you. RVS, not really. DATBF ? oh hells ya that post is.
Notes that Pesco ended the RVS phase. Finds this scummy. Also notes that Kiro is voting Cart because of a vote in the RVS. Votes Kiro and demands a better reason for Kiro?s vote on Cart.
Explains why he didn?t respond to my vote on him. Assumed it was RVS. Then explains why he was on Pesco ? just to stir up some conversation. Hits himself when he gets the explanation about the difference between Pesco?s and Kiro?s votes. Does not unvote, however.
Thinks Cart is reaching, and agrees that his vote should go off kiro. Donut unvotes. He also expresses his inability to play mafia well. Seems generally curious about why scum want to end the RVS.
Cautions me. Says don?t be fooled by walls of text. Still wants more clarification on stuff.
Votes me, thinks my post scream ?WTF?. Asks if I would lynch a suspicious person for some value. (Hint ? I would. But I never found Serp suspicious, so in regards to the post and context of what I was saying, his accusation is coming out of nowhere). EBWOP: - Everything I say he finds suspicious.

Pesco ? Your claim. I feel like that?s almost a doc role. And I?m sure somebody will kill me for suggesting that. But I also feel that if you were actually a real doc, you would know it and actively say it. So I?m troubled by your claim. Deeply troubled.
I?m glad Neitz made that post of his. Pesco ?did- breadcrumb his role. Breadcrumbing is powerful for analysis and safety. So? I?m inclined to be a little upset about this, because on one hand I like breadcrumbing as a townie tell, but at the same time I know mafia will use it as well to protect themselves. Urg.
Cool, your first post doesn?t even have a reason for your random vote.
Post 42 ? this is the first serious post in the game, I?m going to say. Srs bsns. Ya, everything before this seems mostly garbage, but Pesco starts up the real action by calling donut jumpy? did anybody else think donut was jumpy? I certainly didn?t.
Post 51 ? An asprin reference. He?s tripping on it, he says.
Votes Kiro, and underlines the part of ?there?s a case of Donut trying too hard on NF by NF.? Wants an explanation of that.
Says he has seen no scum intent in donut, so is leaving donut alone.


Affinity ? You should read more Oscar Wilde
Wonders why I have a problem with a weak reason. Wonders why I didn?t vote Neitz if I don?t like Neitz?s weak reason and I didn?t have a serious vote beforehand. Votes me. Thinks pesco is avoiding questions.



Rouk ? You?ve had it in for pesco from the beginning of this game, it looks like. 2:22, aye?
Asks about high profile. Note how long it took for Pesco to get the game started.
Can?t understand Pesco, right from the get go. Says he?d probably vote Neitz for the high profile comment.
Defends donut for against Neitz. Donut?s post was ?false severetiy?? then he gets on Donut?s case for accusing Pesco of ending the RVS.
Bothred by the Donut/pesco conversation. Notes they dropped their cases too easily and then both picked on Kiro.
Notes deflection isn?t a good thing. Accuses Pesco of deflecting?
Doesn?t like pesco?s logic, cause it can work in the same way against pesco.
Notes dorian didn?t have much content in his first serious post.

Kiro ? Votes Cart? for not trying to get on the following cases ? Myself, Pesco, and donut. (Here, this is amusing. Notice how the game started on the same three people, and haven?t really shifted to anybody else? This is not good.)
Defends his vote on Cart by saying that cart?s second vote has enough reason behind to be considered a real vote. Challenge?s donut to disagree with him.

Dorian ? Hey, there?s somebody who does read Oscar Wilde. And even tells people to do so.
Thinks I?m suspicious because I don?t like the bandwagon I?m on. Says he needs to stop being lazy, also.
Apologizes when I explain to him that my vote was before the wagon and was RVS. Accepts this, then says he is tired. Thinks he is clueless, not pesco.

Neitz ? Starts the whole ?donut wants a bandwagon on himself? theory. This seems to follow a logic that early bandwagons fail, and since scum hop bandwagons, being bandwagoned as scum at the beginning is a good idea.
Explains high profile as ? Donut not responding to my case against him? and long and over exaggerated joke posts. Admits this is weak. Still assumes that Donut wants to be bandwagoned. Neitz wants to start a bandwagon.
Explains why he believes donut would want a bandwagon. So that we can ?forget? about donut later. This never happened.
Explains why he was suspicious of Donut? for getting mad at the yuyuko doll joke. Tells me why he finds bandwagons useful on day 1. Thinks donut has been reacting poorly to pressure. Something about ninjas? Finds pesco acting strange.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 17, 2009, 09:27:19 PM
EBWOP: the tl;dr version.

Also - that only goes up to post 100. Post 101 is a long pesco vote, and I was running out of time there.

From what I see in those first 100 posts, however... I see Dorian not doing much of anything, I see Cart jumping to dorian's defense whenever he can, I see Affinity doing almost nothing also. I see Serp generally trying to hunt scum. I see donut and pesco getting conflated for almost no reason, mostly because of Rouk and Neitz. Rouk and Neitz also seem to be generally searching for scum. Zakeri seems happy to just jump on whatever looks shiny at the moment. And Kiro... I don't even know what he is doing exactly.

So my scum list right now is Dorian, Cart, and Affinity. Pesco is following it up only because I don't like his claim, which is a terrible reason to want to lynch somebody I think. Leaning townie on Neitz, Serp, and Rouk, and feeling pretty mediocre on the rest.

So ya, my vote stands on Dorian. And I'm out of time ;_; Those first 100 posts took way longer than I thought they would, I'll want to continue this if I make it to day 2. 
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 17, 2009, 09:32:35 PM
That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.
If being consistently anti-town ands scummy is not a reason to lynch, I don't know what is.
Quote
He mentions that NF tomorrow is going to be a bunch of WIFOM, so why is he willing to only deal with it tomorrow when things are going to be more confusing?
I was, and still am willing to lynch him today, but apparently a lot of people think it's better to wait due to his claim. I'm fine with lynching pesco instead, he's bad enough today and it's not like he is going to be more trustworthier tomorrow either.

Quote
And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.
I don't even know what  "going near" it's supposed to mean. My only serious votes were donut and pesco, after considering between him and NF.

Nuclear Ninja: Oh great, Wall of Tex of Doom, mostly summarizing player's actions and repeating his previous points. I'll try to re-read it later. (By the way, "Ninja" it's when someone posts ahead of you while you're writing your post.)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 17, 2009, 09:46:59 PM
Sezzate ? l'ala, l'aquila ? caduta dal cielo
Le penne si spargono per mare e per monti

Da' pace al mio povero animo!
Da' pace al mio povero animo!
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGwL97BRAOE&fmt=18)

Votecount is unchanged! You have 7 hours remaining! Good Luck!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 17, 2009, 10:20:37 PM
That's not a lot of pressing to validate going for my lynch.
If being consistently anti-town ands scummy is not a reason to lynch, I don't know what is.

You've used 'anti-town' a bit, but never outright said scummy. Why only tack on the word now?

Those may be reason enough for lynch, but what you've given on me is IIoA.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 17, 2009, 10:32:50 PM
Pesco: Is Roukan scum in your eyes because he is pursuing you? Please clarify your feelings on that.

I'm drawing a blank on further questions to ask you and I hate this type of a question, but:

Go over your scum team theory and how they all fit together.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 17, 2009, 11:12:54 PM
Well, I wanted to post more in depth analysis since my last post, but I'm getting pressed for time.

I've looked over my thoughts on the three bandwagons right now, and the one I think is least likely to be Town is Donut.

I still believe Dorian hasn't done anything that can be construed as completely scummy. I know the argument is that he hasn't posted very much content, but somehow I feel that basing a case purely on this doesn't hold up well this early in the game. This is basically how I got Xan Lynched last game.

Pesco has come and tried to make himself clear when I would expect ScumPesco to sink away any hope people ignore him. Even if Rou thinks Pesco's reasoning is poor, the fact that he's tried to explain how he came to that conclusion should speak more than Roukanken is letting it.

Donut has done two things that do look scummy. He forgot to take his Vote off of Kiro, and then Pushed his vote onto Dorian by piggybacking Serp's vote almost immediately. The first can easily be passed off as Occam's Razor, but seeing Donut's vote on Dorian right now this late in the day and still considering it a pressure vote is poor. I still want Donut to answer my Question found in my post previous to this one.

##Vote: Donut
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 17, 2009, 11:17:16 PM
Alright, back from my first time in a casino. I spent three hours getting dealt absolute junk in poker. (I blame Hina and Chen.)

I'll be around for a little longer, so if there's a general consensus that a Pesco lynch isn't going to happen I'm fine with switching over to Donut. I'm still unkeen on him for the strange tiff he had with Pesco, his defending Pesco rather than leaving him to fight his own battles and his opportunistic-looking jump onto Dorian.

tl;dr - switch to Donut Y/N?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 17, 2009, 11:49:17 PM
NF's post is nothing more than one gigantic scarecrow, really; nothing more than useless journalism and a few tacked on comments which is really, scarcely what we need.  Of course, any more thorough reread would see that my section is lacking, and that his less than mediocore defence against other people's points are severely lacking in every way.  He raises the old 'ohnoes I have my own playstyle and no one has the right to challenge it' and 'your analysis might be wrong and that's mafia', both of which are, of course, utterly wrong and fruitless.  And no, you are not allowed to say something is dumb and ridiculous unless you have good reasons.  You don't, as you can see.  We do, however.

I think an important point in NF's favour, however, which hasn't really been mentioned yet, is that there is no counterclaim so far.

Alright, Serp raises good points on general technique, but I don't think we penalize effort.  Rather, we disregard effort as a method of judgment and merely move on to the content.  Obviously, as you can see from NF, the effort he must surely have put in is anything but helpful, since there is so little content and so little scumhunting.  And on the flip side, look at FAV from the previous games (where he was confirmed townie for pretty much the totality of the games solely based on her content) While the wrathie thing was a little screwy, I agree, it is more of a lesson that we should lynch lurkers earlier, but not on the first day; since really, I think there are better targets.  Furthermore, there is a supposed cop.

I would like Dorian to say something, though, else he be lynched tomorrow.  Mod prod would be nice.  And happy belated birthday to you, Rou.  donut needs a post, basically to explain the reasons behind his sudden vote switches.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 18, 2009, 12:27:24 AM
Okay it's 1:30 in the morning right now and I just spent the last hour trying to find a program that doesn't suck at recording Touhou. Camtasia isn't working, but that's because I'm being made to run Vista. *shudder*

Welp, doesn't look like the Pesco wagon is moving today. May as well go for my second choice.

##Unvote: Pesco
Vote: nintendonut888


Good night.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 01:09:37 AM
Ti dar? del vino color di rosa
Ti amer? fino al midollo

Bacia il mio piede
Su, prosternati
Ti cuciner? per bene
Col condimento della disperazione
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAupQUUglkU&fmt=18)

Day 1 Vote Count - 4 hours remaining:
donut (5): - Nuclear Fusion, Nietz, Serpentarius, Dorian, Affinity, Kiro, Zakeri, Roukanken
Dorian (3): - Nuclear Fusion, Serpentarius, donut
pesco (2): - Roukanken, Zakeri, Nietz, Carthrat
Nuclear Fusion (1): - Affinity, Carthrat, donut, Pesco
Nietz (0): - Serpentarius
Zakeri (0): - Carthrat
Affinity (0): - Dorian
Kiro (0): - donut, pesco
Carthrat (0): - Kiro
Roukanken (0): -

Donut is at L-1!

Not voting: Nobody.

Furthermore, Dorian has...requested replacement. Argh.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 18, 2009, 01:21:18 AM
Quote from: Kiro
Serpentarius: Your argument about lurkers is compelling, but let's analyze what's going on in this game. Donut's latest posts are a sign he's being less responsive to the pressure on him and he's ducking from writing up anything. I'd label him a lurker now. Nuclear Fusion has been the same as well, ever since the copclaim. And Pesco's rather clipped posts just now also looks a bit like he's trying to limp through Day 1. All of this is of comparable lurkiness to the case on Dorian you're advocating.

I see Donut throwing up his hands and just giving up, which definitely isn't a point in his favor, to be sure.  His self-professed lack of scumhunting ability doesn't help matters either.  I'll agree that it's comparable to the case on Dorian, but I think Dorian is looking worse in all regards.  As for Pesco and Nuke, I don't think you can accuse either of them of lurking at this point.

Quote from: Kiro
As for the part about letting lurkers pass, I'll have to disagree with that. Xan was a Town lurker lynched Day 1 in Crawl. Alice was a Scum lurker (if I recall correctly, he hadn't said much that game) set to be lynched Day 1 in GWU which was averted by his fake Doc claim. In recent games, I think MotK has been willing to punish those who are badly lurking, but it's always relative to the actions of those who are actively scummy.

It's probably confirmation bias combined with being a relative newbie to this community for me, but I just want to point out that there is a balance to strike when weighing lurkiness against scummy posts.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
thinks RVS ended when I confirmed voted donut. Explains when RVS ends. Is frustrated that few people commented on my case for donut. (I never had a case on donut, though? so ya)

Did you not genuinely think that Donut was suspiciously serious in his vote on you?

Quote from: Affinity
Alright, Serp raises good points on general technique, but I don't think we penalize effort.  Rather, we disregard effort as a method of judgment and merely move on to the content.  Obviously, as you can see from NF, the effort he must surely have put in is anything but helpful, since there is so little content and so little scumhunting.  And on the flip side, look at FAV from the previous games (where he was confirmed townie for pretty much the totality of the games solely based on her content) While the wrathie thing was a little screwy, I agree, it is more of a lesson that we should lynch lurkers earlier, but not on the first day; since really, I think there are better targets.  Furthermore, there is a supposed cop.

If there are better targets, then they should be lynched, yeah.  That's a matter that we need to decide upon.  I hope you're not suggesting that the cop should scan the lurker, though - that's practically a wasted scan, as I see it.  I don't want to go too deeply into which techniques a cop should use to pick his target, or suggest any targets myself, 'cause I'm worried about a Framer, but...  really, scanning a lurker is just a bad idea.  Anyway, due to the nature of lurking, waiting 'till the second day isn't likely to get much more information with which to make our decision.  I don't think that any of the targets are better (though I'll vote them if I must, of course - I'll be online all the way to the deadline).

Regarding Nuke's wall, it actually looks good to me.  I get the impression of someone who expects to be NK'd, and so he wants to get all his observations out there so everyone can compare their own conclusions to those of a confirmed townie after his flip.  His analysis of what ought to happen tomorrow is also solid - at least give him a chance to scan someone, then if we figure that he's still the scummiest player out there (which, disregarding his claim, I suppose he still is at the moment), then if he's actually telling the truth, his flip of town cop will give us a confirmed innocent.  If not, then we've lynched scum.

Still preferring a Dorian lynch here.  Donut is a close second.  Willing to vote or hammer Pesco, though it looks like that's not going through.

Ninja by Alice:  Dorian wants a replacement.  Lovely.  Give me some time to figure out what this means for my case.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 18, 2009, 01:32:02 AM
Quote from: Zakeri
Donut: Are you comfortable with Voting Dorian if it leads to his Lynch? Consider all of the implications of Dorian Flipping Town And Flipping Scum before you answer this.

Neitz and Carthrat: Same Question, Except about Pesco.

I am voting Pesco, and I usually vote people I'm comfortable with lynching, so... Uh. How is this question not fearmongering, as in it's the same as going "Are you SURE you want to lynch him? HE MIGHT FLIP EITHER WAY".

Quote from: Affinity
I think an important point in NF's favour, however, which hasn't really been mentioned yet, is that there is no counterclaim so far.

N'really; supposing that NF is scum and there actually is a real cop out there, the latter would be kinda stupid to counterclaim and give himself away.

<->

tl;dr of why I'm voting Pesco: he hyped NF's lynch post-claim, and I don't like the way he argued with Rou (specifically, by stringing out his questioning and then employing emotional appeals in a faulty attempt to make Rou look like a bully.)

Some of the latest let's-not-lynch-Pesco arguments include 'he's acted like this before', but on the other hand, my dominant memories of him behaving so involve him being scum, so this isn't really flying.

NF himself comes out of nowhere and insinuates pesco is a doc.. um.. what? Serious? That's so random, I don't get it at all.

Annd Zakeri saying that Pesco has 'he didn't vanish, but tried to make himself clear! Probably not scum.' Except that's what anyone should do regardless of alignment, so uh it's really meaningless.

Re: Donut: I'm willing to hammer, although I won't pretend much of the case I have on him came from my own head or that I really want to kill him over Pesco. The two points I distinctly feel are scummy involve the admission that "I suck at scumhunting and prefer defending okay?!" and his opportunistic pile-on to Dorian earlier.

I'll not hammer for a bit, though, and see if he says anything.

<->

Alice: re: dorian: Can we lynch him in real life?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Affinity on July 18, 2009, 01:54:10 AM
@Serp:

Oh, what I meant about there being a cop is that there will be a more inverse relationship of having some confirmed townies, partially reducing the chance that Dorian would have stayed till the end of the game, if he stayed as he was.

But gah at replacement.  Still awaiting donut's reply.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nietz on July 18, 2009, 01:55:27 AM
You've used 'anti-town' a bit, but never outright said scummy. Why only tack on the word now?
I don't know what to say...
All you posted afterwards regarding this stance were half-assed explanations and smug remarks, which feels strongly scummy.
In fact, you seem to be doing everything possible to look scummy.
And judging by past experience, you're being the exact kind of anti-town you are when being scum.
That reminds me a lot of scum-pesco trying to use flavor and a weird claim to clear himself in Shrine Festival Mafia.

And I mean I really don't know what to say. I would expect even scum scum making baseless accusations to double-check them beforehand.

Compared to donut, who just vanished after the attention got off him for a while,  pesco at least is present and responsive. But as Carthrat just mentioned, this is waht you would expect from anyone at risk of being lynched, regardless of alignment.

As stated I prefer a pesco lynch. In summary, because of his weird behaviour relating to donut, evasive and counter-productive towards Rou and his very vague and alluring claim with unnecessary preemptive breadcrumbing.

Donut as a lynch doesn't seem so bad, but I don't think I'll be around during the deadline to hammer him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 01:58:01 AM
Effective immediately, EX NaHCO_3 replaces Dorian G! (while I make sure to grab my book of charge -1 cations for obvious useage :P)

Alice: re: dorian: Can we lynch him in real life?
Yes, PLEASE.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Sodium on July 18, 2009, 02:03:12 AM
Hello. I will now be reading some stuff. Uh yeah. Just confirming for now. Hopefully I'll be able to post in around an hour.

Also, I note that this is the second time in a row I've replaced a lurker. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Serp on July 18, 2009, 02:18:35 AM
Alright, looks like we've got an active player for Dorian now, so arguments that rely on expected lack of future consistency don't really hold water anymore.  This bumps Donut up to my favored lynch.  I'd do another full readthrough and writeup on the cases against Donut and Pesco before the deadline, since I haven't really been focusing on either of them as my primary case, there just isn't time.  I'll be online to vote and hammer near the deadline.

##Unvote

I'm not letting Sodium Peroxide completely off the hook, but we should see what he has to say tomorrow.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 18, 2009, 02:29:28 AM
Oh, just as well. I still haven't gotten around to reading everything. ;>_> This will probably be my last Mafia game ever since even during Summer I can't really commit and I suck at scumhunting.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 18, 2009, 02:40:16 AM
How about a claim please Donut?

And you don't have to read everything now because there's no time. Just state a basic defense and who you think is scum with basic rationale.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Kiro on July 18, 2009, 02:54:50 AM
I'm gonna be gone for a bit. Not sure if I'll be back for deadline (1:00 AM EST?) and a vote switch, but hopefully so in case it's necessary.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 02:57:28 AM
Deadline (1:00 AM EST?)
Yes.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Sodium on July 18, 2009, 03:01:01 AM
By Lurker, I mean inactive guy who then asks for a replacement at the end of Day 1. =V

Also, some random things I noticed:
No one self voted. THANK THE MAFIA GODS.
This Day 1 isn't 10 pages of WALLS that would make VoWG jelous. THANK THE MAFIA GODS.

So anyways...
People I don't like:
Nuclear Fusion:
[run on sentence]Hi Guys, I'm going to attract a lot of attention for no reason, post a current suspicion list that includes EVERYONE and then target the lurker(easy way out), jump to scum pair conclusions, get called scummy, then claim cop after wasting a load of time defending myself, while claiming defending others and ones self is a good way to spend the day.[/run on sentence]

While his actions are...yeah, no one has counterclaimed or anything, so he's somewhat of a confirmed townie. I still don't like NF for his general uselessness in actually doing something pro-town.

People who are scummy right now:
Donut:Oh you. Attacks Pesco with WIFOM goodness.
"SCUM WOULD WANT TO END THE RVS EARLY FOR TOWNIE POINTS, BUT I'VE CAUGHT ONTO THAT DEVIOUS SCHEME."
Next, we have him sorta defending Pesco from Roukan! Neutral I guess, but yeah. What I'd like to point out is:
Quote
1. Mafia NKs him. He's telling the truth and we lose a cop
2. Mafia leaves him alive for whatever reason and he starts talking. We have a live cop who can help us
3. He lives and starts feeding us false information, because he's Mafia

Two out of these three options are desirable.
Haha...Which of the two? From what I can tell, there's only 1 desirable for town, and that's #2. Only Pesco posted about it though, and Pesco'd post was more of a "lolwut?". Donut then responding without actually saying something to remedy how he said there are two options desirable. It's like he didn't actually notice what Pesco was talking about!
Uses "I suck at scum hunting" to defend against "Why haven't you been scum hunting?". Nice.
He then says "I'll catch up later", and then says that AGAIN, 2.5 hours before the deadline, while giving up.

Roukan and Pesco:For some reason, I have a theory that they're pretending to argue(as usual) in order to distract town. Now, there is absolutely no actual evidence to support this, seeing as they do it every time, but it's just a feeling I have. Disregard this if you feel like it, as it's a crackpot theory intially born from observing from outside the game.

I focused on the main topics of discussion in Day 1, but I'll try to give some opinions on others later(probably on Day 2, unfortunately). I was trying to do a post in an hour, and this is all I got. So yeah. I can vote up until an hour before the deadline. I've gotta go do something quickly now though.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Sodium on July 18, 2009, 03:32:26 AM
Wait, Alice, is my vote on Donut right now? Dorian did have his vote on Donut previously. Well, I'm just going to make sure by:

##Unvote
##Vote:Donut


Not a Hammer.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 18, 2009, 04:03:40 AM
Defense~? Well, If I'm about to be hammered, there's no real point, but lessee...~ *is currently hot and bothered by said heat*

IIRC, this whole thing started from confusions about the RVS, and me being inconsistent with my voting? Well, is it really a crime to have a flexible opinion? Look at the judge in Phoenix Wright! He has a flexible opinion, but he chooses the right thing in the end...wait. >_> As for why I vote for people I previously state I support, it was to avoid being accused of waffling. Honest. So~ I don't really have anything more than that.

As for who's scum? I dunno. Not me, but you'll learn that in an hour or so. I still say that NF should be under suspicion because he may be fake claiming, but that's not something I'd bet my life on. Also, don't let Pesco off the hook just because I flip town, okay?

Claim? I'm some chef guy, vanilla townie. GOD, I had hoped at least once in my Mafia career I'd get a power role (well, excluding mah Yuyuko doll in RWoS).

So in conclusion, I want to tell my family that though we had some rough times, I love them dearly. I leave this world with no regrets. *lights cigarette*
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Carthrat on July 18, 2009, 04:14:22 AM
Yeah, I'm not seeing anything brilliant and/or mind-changing there, and the pesco lynch is looking like it's not gonna happen (and the Dorian/EX one definately isn't, and shouldn't happen.) I'm good with this one.

##Unvote, ##Vote: donut Hammer.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 18, 2009, 04:23:30 AM
Back, I didn't think Day lasted until after Midnight.

Quote from: Serpentarius
I see Donut throwing up his hands and just giving up, which definitely isn't a point in his favor, to be sure.  His self-professed lack of scumhunting ability doesn't help matters either.  I'll agree that it's comparable to the case on Dorian, but I think Dorian is looking worse in all regards.
How exactly was Dorian "Worse" Than Donut? Dorian made a few posts attempting to give his opinions, and said something that can be easily misconstrued into a scummy statement. Donut has been placing awkwardly timed votes on people without giving effective reasoning for his votes, and excusing it. What exactly make's Dorian more scummy then Donut?

Quote
but I just want to point out that there is a balance to strike when weighing lurkiness against scummy posts.
And where is this balance? As far as I can tell from your stance on Dorian and Nuke, and your lack of Stance on Donut tells me that you value activity levels more than content of post. Your points on Dorian were afterthoughts.

Quote
If this player group has a collective flaw, it's that it penalizes effort.  Someone who takes the trouble to post a full justification of his vote and an analysis of every bandwagon and player is just putting out more words, and between those words there will likely be a bunch of little inconsistencies to pick apart, by virtue of the poster's humanity, not his scumminess.
Okay, this is a rather decent point, and I will accept this
IF... you can present a better way to hunt scum.

Quote
I'm not trying to present a false dilemma - all I'm saying is that it seems inconsistent to me for you all to give the supposed cop a free ticket due to his possible future utility while also giving the lurker a free ticket despite his likely future liability even on the off chance that he's a townie.
This is a False Delemia. You are trying to ingrain in the minds of everyone else is that if we let Dorian Live now, he will continue to live until Lylo, and only then, not before then, will we question or pursue his alignment.

I know this is all before you realized Dorian was getting replaced, which is why I phrased all of these arguments as such.

In the end, this is exactly why I consider it a Scumtell to go after Inactive People on day one. Inactives are the number one easiest mislynch since they can't defend themselves and clueless townies would easily agree with the reasoning. This is also a main point in why Nuke is likely Scum.

Quote from: Carthrat
I am voting Pesco, and I usually vote people I'm comfortable with lynching, so... Uh. How is this question not fearmongering, as in it's the same as going "Are you SURE you want to lynch him? HE MIGHT FLIP EITHER WAY".
It is Fearmongering. As such, people who are convinced of their vote and provide reasoning why are less likely the be scum.

Ending the post now before the deadline comes up too short for Serp to answer.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 04:30:09 AM
HAMMER SHUT UP
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 05:19:30 AM
As everyone was arguing, and Kinzo kept shredding on his guitar, suddenly Gouda walks in with the afternoon dinner.

"Freshly prepared for you, delicious lemon chicken with hollandaise sauce, with a side of potatoes and mixed vegetables and drinks of your choice. Dessert will be in a m--"

"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.

"W-w-w-what, me? What makes you think I committed that...vile act?"

"It's simple: it would have to have been a servant who did it, for the bodies were stored in a room where only the servants and Kinzo had keys to. Furthermore--"

"Wait, Battler's right. I didn't see Gohda around that morning, before the discovery of the bodies.", said Kanon.

"It wasn't me! Honest! I was in the kitchen making breakfast for everyone!"

"LIES AND TRICKERY! That is just a convenient excuse!" yelled Natsuhi in horror, beginning to already suspect the worst of Gohda, around the same time as another migraine of hers flared up again.

"Never trust a person who's named after a type of cheese", added Eva.

"Why did I ever agree to come here, not only does nobody respect me and my cooking but now they're also accusing me of murder! I go from working at 5-star hotels to this place and I get less respect? Why did that dollmaker have to prevent unionization, I don't deserve this tr--"

Suddenly, everyone's attention was directed on the girl who just materialized in the room, except nobody could tell when, or for that matter who she was.

"...who are you?", George finally got the urge to ask

"Mammon. And the person you are accusing is innocent of what you claim him to be doing. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, see, we need some sacrifices, so we hope you'll oblige and don't mind. I just hope you guys aren't going to take to eating microwaved lunches now. I mean that guy is obnoxious, but he could cook well, compared to the stuff Kinzo used to eat. I mean yeech, no wonder Nanjo complains about his health all the time. Anyway, bye!"

And at this precise moment two facts became known: the girl with the wavy brown hair was gone, and Gohda was dead...stabbed through the heart with a stake.

"Well...I guess he was telling the truth...", muttered Kinzo, who then got up to pick up his whammy bar that just flew off of his guitar.

nintendonut888, playing Gohda, Vanilla Townie was lynched!

It is now Night 1. You have 24 hours to submit night actions to me and Edible (please send them to both mods, I cannot seem to repeat this point enough times), after which Day 2 will begin.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: nintendonut888 on July 18, 2009, 05:34:49 AM
*goes off to get last meal*
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 18, 2009, 10:22:42 AM
"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.
Uh, I don't think confirming roles via flavour is a good idea. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 11:06:37 AM
"It's you. You're the one who killed them.", suddenly said Battler, after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself, almost in vain.
Uh, I don't think confirming roles via flavour is a good idea. >_>
When did I say this was a confirmation, or that roles mapped to alignments or powers? :)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 18, 2009, 11:08:14 AM
after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Pesco on July 18, 2009, 11:11:40 AM
Stop mod-fishing in public.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 18, 2009, 11:12:58 AM
after spending most of the argument trying to defend himself
Flavour is flavour, and the only relevant name in it is the person who is about to die. All other names and scenarios are pulled from the pool of all possible characters, some of which might not even be in this mafia game. Furthermore, character name does not imply ability or alignment. In other words, kindly stop trying to outguess the mod. It won't work :)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 18, 2009, 12:15:08 PM
Okay, as a warning I'm leaving for a 4-day trip to England in about 5 minutes so my internet access will either be heavily reduced or non-existent. If I don't post by halfway through Day 2, I'll probably need to be replaced. If all goes well, though, I should be back online sometime late Sunday.

Apologies to the mods for the inconvenience.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 19, 2009, 05:08:00 AM
Everyone woke up today and headed off to the common room, still slightly afraid of the happenings of last night. "Didn't it say that two people are to be killed on the second day?", George wondered for a moment. "Just be glad nobody died", was the quick response from Natsuhi, who was visibly distressed. They all sat down for another day of chatter and confusion amongst themselves, in the hopes of finding out who was behind the death of Gouda last night.

It is now Day 2. There was No Nightkill last night. You have 72 hours from this point until deadline, though due to random V/LAs cropping up and the Otakon weekend, I will give a 24 hour extension for today only if a majority votes for an extension by voting ##Extension

Also, Roukanken's V/LA is noted. Have fun!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 05:32:28 AM
I got roleblocked....


At the same time, nobody died, that's pretty freaking sweet.

Also, ##vote: Affinity

10 alive, and the mafia has a roleblocker. This is new information.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 05:33:38 AM
EBWOP: Oh ya, I should mention that I tried to investigate Cart, but ya, roleblocked.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Kiro on July 19, 2009, 05:36:31 AM
Your reason for the Affinity vote? And perhaps the reason why you chose to investigate Carthrat.

Will work on a case to persue in the meanwhile.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 05:42:56 AM
Cart because I was already suspicious of him during day for defending Dorian repeatedly with lame reasons (noted in the long post). 

My affinity vote now? Because I've noticed a trend in his posting - a lot of is accusing me of not scum hunting. Then when I attempt to scum hunt, he dismisses it immediately as not being useful. I will probably do a PBPA of him tomorrow, but if I can recall his posts accurately, almost all of them have accused me at some point.

So ya, I think affinity is trying to discredit me, and doing so mostly by jumping on the backs of what other people have said prior to him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 19, 2009, 06:04:52 AM
Cut by Kiro: Beat me to it.

@Serp, I would still like you to answer everything in my after hammer post, even if you don't think it would be relevant to the rest of the day 2.

My opinion has not changed at all on Nuke from yesterday. For the record, my opinion was "I want to lynch him for horribad play, but I won't because lynching him is still anti-town." Although, with a roleblocker around, claiming as a cop effectively killed him.

<setup speculation>Judging from Nuke's report, I'm under the impression that this is an F11 (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=F11) game (link provided for those who don't know what F11 is). I wouldn't put it past Alice if it was. What we can expect from the rest of this game is a night action stalemate until Scum hits doctor or we lynch the roleblocker. The other possibility is that Scum intentionally threw away the nightkill to produce this assumption, but it's unlikely.</setup speculation>

that's everything I wanted to touch upon before rereading, anyway.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 19, 2009, 07:01:47 AM
To answer Zakeri:

Quote from: Zakeri
How exactly was Dorian "Worse" Than Donut? Dorian made a few posts attempting to give his opinions, and said something that can be easily misconstrued into a scummy statement. Donut has been placing awkwardly timed votes on people without giving effective reasoning for his votes, and excusing it. What exactly make's Dorian more scummy then Donut?

I meant "worse" as regards lurkerscum potential.  Donut had more scummy statements out there, and he was sort of disappearing there in the end, but Dorian was even more lurky, and his scumminess-per-post ratio was higher.  Basically, I was referring to the same things that Kiro was in the post I was responding to.

Quote from: Zakeri
And where is this balance? As far as I can tell from your stance on Dorian and Nuke, and your lack of Stance on Donut tells me that you value activity levels more than content of post. Your points on Dorian were afterthoughts.

I apparently put more value on activity than most here, yes.  My points on Dorian weren't just afterthoughts, though - they had just already been stated by other people who were already voting for him.  If he had posted no less often that he had, but hadn't put anything so scummy in those posts, I wouldn't have advocated lynching him.

Quote from: Zakeri
Okay, this is a rather decent point, and I will accept this
IF... you can present a better way to hunt scum.

Watch and learn.

Quote from: Zakeri
This is a False Delemia. You are trying to ingrain in the minds of everyone else is that if we let Dorian Live now, he will continue to live until Lylo, and only then, not before then, will we question or pursue his alignment.

Not lynching someone dramatically increases his chances of making it to LYLO, to say the least, and it's not like lurkers disappear without being lynched.  If we don't lynch them as soon as it's clear that they'll be a liability, then when do we do it?

Quote from: Zakeri
In the end, this is exactly why I consider it a Scumtell to go after Inactive People on day one. Inactives are the number one easiest mislynch since they can't defend themselves and clueless townies would easily agree with the reasoning. This is also a main point in why Nuke is likely Scum.

Yeah, lurkers should be easy to lynch, shouldn't they?  I knew I'd take a lot of flak for picking such an "easy" option, though I maintain that it was the best move for the town in that situation.  Yet Dorian retained a lot of support despite how easy it should have been to lynch him, if he was really a townie and such easy target for scum to mislynch.  Shouldn't that be suspicious in itself?  Let's see what Sodium produces today.  As I said, I'm not letting him off the hook.

Now, my thoughts on Nuke's report.  It looks like he'd have us believe that he was targetted by a scum roleblocker as well as the night kill.  Seems fishy.  Alternately, he might've been roleblocked and the night kill didn't go through for some other reason, but that seems even less likely.

As for scenarios I'm sure he'd rather not have us believe, scum could've roleblocked themselves or just not sent in the night kill, and Nuke could be one of them.  It'd be strange for him not to fabricate an investigation in that case, though.

It's a good idea to be suspicious of roleclaims that fail to produce, though.  Combine Nuke's apparent uselessness as a cop with his scummy play yesterday and I'm much less inclined to keep him alive another day.  Pesco's scumminess from yesterday still carries over, too, and I've got my eye on Sodium.  I also really, really want Nuke to expand on his case out of nowhere against Affinity.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Affinity on July 19, 2009, 07:07:59 AM
@Nuclear Fusion

There is very little need to discredit you for you have done most of the discrediting yourself with your useless, reckless play.  Also, interesting is the 'jump on other people's back' accusation which I find rather unsubstantiated, due to the fact that there are only so many obvious points to point out on your play, and that I believe I raised a few original points on your case.  Furthermore, if you are voting me because I'm finding you scummy, then obviously, that's quite foolish when you compare it with your own scumhunting philosophy (read: nothing is a scumtell), which doesn't hold up.  In fact, that's in itself scummy because you have to rely on such neutral reasons to scrape together a case; a psuedo-OMGUS if you will

---

@Zakeri:

You said yesterday that you were leery of the donut lynch for the reason that

Quote
Donut's vote flip can be seen as both scummy bandwagoning and town pressure voting, so I'm considering this a nulltell as well.

I don't really like how you distanced away from the donut bandwagon on this sentence alone... so what do you mean by town pressure voting?  donut's pileups on Dorian and NF were a little opportunistic and didn't seem to convey any sense of pressure, after all; it seems a little bit that you wanted to get away from a misguided bandwagon as scum.

##Vote: Zakeri
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 07:29:11 AM
I don't see a scum must kill clause in the rules. Alice may have made the adjustment for personal preferences from Kilga's ruleset. Lack of NK gives no indication the viewers.

Perma RB is lame, so the supposed cop isn't going to deliver anything for the rest of the game? By his merits as a player alone, he's good to be lynched.

I'll need a reread once I get home. DnD happening later on too, so I won't be posting a lot.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 07:56:34 AM

<setup speculation>Judging from Nuke's report, I'm under the impression that this is an F11 (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=F11) game (link provided for those who don't know what F11 is). I wouldn't put it past Alice if it was. What we can expect from the rest of this game is a night action stalemate until Scum hits doctor or we lynch the roleblocker. The other possibility is that Scum intentionally threw away the nightkill to produce this assumption, but it's unlikely.</setup speculation>


I couldn't sleep, and this is exactly what I was thinking about. I'm a useless role unless I can find the role blocker. Until then, I just get blocked every night.

This also means two things - either the mafia won't care to get me lynched during the day, since I'm effectively useless... or they want me lynched so they can try and block the doctor.

@Serp - no, I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill. And in fact, I don't think I suggested I was. I simply stated that it was awesome that the doc saved somebody.

By the way, the doc saving somebody means that our doc knows somebody is else is town. Or... it means that mafia never sent in a night kill, which is more than a little unlikely.

Also, the vote on Affinity isn't out of nowhere. I mention in the long post from yesterday that I'm suspicious of him.

@affinity - Again, you're doing it again. My play is reckless, I'll admit that. How does that discredit myself? If anything, I'm willing to put myself on the line for the sake of the town. Recklessness is not a scum tell, it's an idiot tell. And I'll be the first to admit I'm an idiot when it comes to mafia sometimes.

You raised some original points? This will need to be checked in the PBPA.

I thought OMGUS was more of "You voted me, so I'm voting you" type thing.

I'm going to state this much - lynching me is still a bad idea. And I'll tell you why - at the very least, I'm holding the role blocker off of the doc. That's not much of a merit, but it's something. I'm also pissed that there was an RB. There is nothing beneficial in me claiming that I was role blocked last night, because that makes me more suspicious and I know it. The best claim I can say is that I got scum results on X, watch us lynch X today, and then go down on day three. That is the best play for me if I am mafia.

Another point - Assume that I am lying (I'm not, but let's assume). That means that the real cop knows I'm lying. This means that he will continue to vote for me, because he knows it. But he can't out and right say that he is cop. He would not bother to waste an investigation on me (I don't think small player games like this have more than one cop ever). This means he would have investigated someone else.

The cop would know the following
Donut - Town
NF - Scum
(Person Investigated) - Town/Scum.
Himself - Town

That's 4 things, out of 11.

Now, assuming that he knows this... he can get two more roles by asking the doc to say who he targeted. This would clear two more people, theoretically.

So that's 6 out of 11. That leaves 5 people.

At that point, the following occurs - We lynch me (since in this hypothetical I'm scum) Assume two scum left in those 5.

Doc gets wacked, cop gets blocked. That's 9 people alive, of which 5 are unknown. 4 however, are completely clear.

...

I think I just proved to myself that in this hypothetical, it would be unwise for the real cop to claim. So... I don't know what I just proved but there's some math and thought for you.

I'm going back to sleep... I'm tired.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 08:08:01 AM
tl;dr WIFOM crap. I think you're just scum that didn't think the claim through. You've been scummy so you deserve to be lynched for it.

##Vote NF
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 08:10:37 AM
tl;dr WIFOM crap. I think you're just scum that didn't think the claim through. You've been scummy so you deserve to be lynched for it.

##Vote NF

Who did you target last night?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 08:25:04 AM
I crumbed who I would target yesterday.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 1
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 08:34:12 AM
I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.


This was the only possible crumb I could find about who you might give the asprins too.

Why are you beating around the bush on this, pesco?

[nongamerelated] Now I remember why I stopped playing mafia. I get completely overstimulated and lose sleep[/nongamerelated]
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 19, 2009, 08:35:33 AM
Yeah I'm changing my mind and seconding pesco instead, here. The waves of bullshit exuding off NF are telling me weird shenanigans are up.

His play the entire game has pretty much involved accusing anyone arguing against him as scummy. He has also now repeatedly made arguments that state 'if I was scum, I would've been cooler', a classic 'ohshit' response if there ever was one.

Cops. Should not. Play recklessly. That is not good for town (it's not good in general for town to play recklessly but even worse for cops, specifically), in fact it's really bad and is a totally wacko mindset to have going into this game that I don't feel can be real. The fact that he was extremely eager to claim super-early is likewise a mark against him.

There is also a weird trait to his posting that assumes a cop is an inevitable fixture in the game, something I am far more willing to attribute to role-holding scum than town of any stripe, and the way he presents it is just downright unnatural as town in general.

His general night-speculation theory- including such brilliants as 'I probably wasn't attacked last night and the doc magically lucked out and successfully protected someone else/scum didn't kill!!1' are totally insane.

##Vote: NF

I am a bit leery of Affinity and Serp, as they've both gone 'NF sucks' and then don't vote him (although admittedly I probably would cut him a lot of slack if it wasn't for that last post.)

Ninjas: for the love of god pesco answer questions straightforwardly.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 19, 2009, 08:37:58 AM
@Serp - no, I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill. And in fact, I don't think I suggested I was. I simply stated that it was awesome that the doc saved somebody.

That would require not only that both the scum and the doc both didn't buy your claim, but also that they both happened to target the same person.  I don't believe in coincidences like that.  I guess it's marginally more likely that the scum hit someone bulletproof and we have no confirmed doc, but that's not very likely either.  Also, "I don't think it's possible that I was targeted by the night kill" is a really weird thing to say.  I want to know what makes you think that.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
There is nothing beneficial in me claiming that I was role blocked last night, because that makes me more suspicious and I know it. The best claim I can say is that I got scum results on X, watch us lynch X today, and then go down on day three. That is the best play for me if I am mafia.

WIFOM

P.S.  I'm pretty sure it's not possible that we're playing F11, since it's a 9 player setup.

P.P.S.  Pesco, what?  Did you share them or not?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 08:48:22 AM
The scum obviously believed my claim, because I was night blocked. I'm no threat to them if I can get information at night. Hell, the rest of you are already so gungho about lynching me, it's beneficial to the mafia not to kill me.

Your conclusion from what I said was false there, serp. How is my saying "the doc didn't target me, and the mafia didn't night kill me" the same as saying "nobody targeted me?"

I don't think I was targeted by the night kill because I was role blocked. If the role blocker is town, then maybe I was targeted by a night kill and a doc. However, role blocker tends to be a mafia role.

That should explain why I wasn't targeted by the night kill?

Also, cart - What?! How is my suggestion insane? If anything, it's the only logical conclusion from where I'm standing. Because the only reason for the mafia to both night kill me and block me is if they assume I'm going to be doced. In which case, there is no reason to kill me.

So yes, I don't think it's insane that the doc got lucky. And I think your trying to hard to discredit me on that.

Waves of BS? What do you people have against trying to offer possibilities? The fact that it looks like WIFOM? Almost everything in mafia looks like WIFOM. There is so little actual fact in a game of mafia that it probably wouldn't even fill a thimble. The most fact you'll get is from the dead. Everything else is pretty much subject to WIFOM. So yes, waves of BS. Right.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 08:57:49 AM
You guys need to stop looking for stuff that isn't there.

1) I said I'm not sharing my aspirins, it means I'm keeping their benefit for myself. Aspirins were ingested because I did have a headache.
2) The only confirmation of my role is that I never said I was vanilla.

Cut: Your scenario requires some insane haxlike probabilities, like those seen in GWU mafia. It can't be happening again because Alice is mod this time and we didn't have a massclaim to result in perfect info for scum to manipulate.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Affinity on July 19, 2009, 09:06:38 AM
What's the use of possibilities when each one is as likely as the other, especially when you attempt to present a point of view where you are scum?  How are we to logically deduce which possibility is better than the other and make our choice?  We can't, it's impossible, really, so why present them?

And if knowledge in mafia other than bandwagon analysis can fit into a thimble, what are your reasons for believing in your votes and their reasons?  What are your reasons for going into gambits?  What are your reasons for being reckless?  It's still illogical and I don't get it.  Also, idiots are bad town.  Bad town deserves as much to be lynched as scum, really, because they only obscure the scum; because good town probably wouldn't make these mistakes.  And well, since you admitted that you have been idiotic for this game at least, I'm sure we would have no trouble with lynching you.

Please do answer to this, if nothing else, why do you go into gambits and votes when you yourself believe that there is nothing we can do without bandwagon analysis.  I don't believe you have done that yet this game.  You are hypocritical for this, making your position all the more unconvincing. 

I'm quite alright with lynching you today for the reasons presented already, except for the lack of NK thing which I don't think was all that impossible.  I just want Zakeri to answer to my query first.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nuclear Fusion on July 19, 2009, 09:14:48 AM
I do what I do for fun, and nothing more. Mafia is about enjoyment, and I'll play it how I see fit.

No, it's not hypocritical. Gambits are a more sure fire why of catching scum in some cases then bandwagons. Furthermore, I'm just as much in need of doing something as the rest of you. I'll shoot in the dark as much as any of you, and see if I get lucky. But gambits often turn up more information than anything else.

What's even funnier is that you assume I said we only had bandwagon analysis. Now I know your not even reading my posts, thanks affinity.

It's funny, I think you guys are caught in a pattern, and somebody came and tried to shake it up. Your all so set on how you guys play that you can't possibly fathom how somebody else might play. For this reason, I'm stuck no matter what I do. 

Also, I'd self vote since you guys clearly want me dead, but I hate people who self vote. So I'm jsut not going to bother posting except after this one.

My theory on who scum are - Affinity and Pesco.

Pesco is likely the role blocker and is lying about his ability.

Anyway, ya, I can see at some points how I may have been thinking differently and said somethings which are illogical. Then again, I'm glad for this little foray back into mafia, because it's taught me more about how logic needs to work, not how I think it works.

Anyways, go ahead and lynch me now. You'll find that I've not once lied. That information aught to be useful for town.

Oh, and on the subject of replacing me - in case somebody cares to try... I don't think he'll be in any better position, so don't bother.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 19, 2009, 09:21:52 AM
Quote from: NF
Because the only reason for the mafia to both night kill me and block me is if they assume I'm going to be doced. In which case, there is no reason to kill me.

Presumably scum do not know if there is a doctor or not, and may feel forced to hedge their bets. It's quite reasonable to consider that you'd be simultaneously NK'd and blocked at the same time, and far more likely than a potential doc not protecting you and somehow getting lucky.

Which is stupid to assume anyway; the best possible move for a doc, given the information that was at hand, is to protect a copclaim and see what happens. That you were attacked and defended is the most logical viewpoint for a true cop to have. Tossing about the idea of all these crazy theories is something, I think, that only scum actually implementing a crazy plan would come out with, with an eye to their position in the future of the game.

NF Ninja: "I'll play however I want and you're bad for thinking that's bad" is a pretty unhealthy attitude to take to mafia and completely ignores the fact that it's a team-based game. Geezus.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 19, 2009, 09:24:38 AM
The scum obviously believed my claim, because I was night blocked. I'm no threat to them if I can get information at night. Hell, the rest of you are already so gungho about lynching me, it's beneficial to the mafia not to kill me.

Your conclusion from what I said was false there, serp. How is my saying "the doc didn't target me, and the mafia didn't night kill me" the same as saying "nobody targeted me?"

If you're really the cop (in which case scum would know that you're telling the truth) and you really did get roleblocked, I'd be much quicker to believe that scum used roleblock and kill on the same person just to be safe, since we had no evidence for a doc before the lack of night kill this morning.  After all, there's no way to block a roleblocker's action without the identity of the roleblocker.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
I don't think I was targeted by the night kill because I was role blocked. If the role blocker is town, then maybe I was targeted by a night kill and a doc. However, role blocker tends to be a mafia role.

The idea of a townie roleblocker using his ability on you in the first place is even further out there.  I mean, it's one thing to not buy your story, and it's another entirely to make sure that even if you're telling the truth, you won't be able to confirm an innocent with your ability.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
That should explain why I wasn't targeted by the night kill?

And the fact that you seem so certain that scum didn't try to hit you is also really strange.

Quote from: Nuclear Fusion
Waves of BS? What do you people have against trying to offer possibilities? The fact that it looks like WIFOM? Almost everything in mafia looks like WIFOM. There is so little actual fact in a game of mafia that it probably wouldn't even fill a thimble. The most fact you'll get is from the dead. Everything else is pretty much subject to WIFOM. So yes, waves of BS. Right.

. . .  And the continued "No such thing as a genuine scumtell" rears its head again.

Quote from: Pesco
Cut: Your scenario requires some insane haxlike probabilities, like those seen in GWU mafia. It can't be happening again because Alice is mod this time and we didn't have a massclaim to result in perfect info for scum to manipulate.

Assuming three scum, the doc's odds of protecting a townie last night if he picked at complete random would be 70%.  Within that 70% chance, the odds of the mafia picking the same townie to kill are one in seven, so the odds of the scum hitting the doc's pick at random are 10%.  Maybe a little more than that in reality, 'cause no one picks with complete randomness.  The doc would be looking for the scum's most likely target.

Quote from: Carthrat
I am a bit leery of Affinity and Serp, as they've both gone 'NF sucks' and then don't vote him (although admittedly I probably would cut him a lot of slack if it wasn't for that last post.)

I'm holding my vote 'till Sodium shows up.  Ninja'd:  The fact that Nuke is apparently quitting doesn't help matters, though. :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 09:54:16 AM
*snarky modkill comment removed*

If you are town, you'll be no significant loss if you were allowed to continue with that kind of philosophy.
If you are scum, consider yourself fortunate for being able to scrape day 1.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Kiro on July 19, 2009, 10:25:23 AM
To avoid repitition about NF's situation, we're not going to be any surer of NF's roleclaim unless someone else also claims they were roleblocked.

Question to Serpentarius: You say in #153 that you think Donut defending Pesco "may be justified at this point." I missed this earlier and should have questioned your reasoning as to why you thought this. I know this is now coming after Donut's flip, but let's hear what you have to say anyways.

Looking at Zakeri #169, there are a bunch of questions I have regarding that. First looking at:
Quote
it feels to me that you think voting me is a safer lynch to push.
Actually, I think pushing your lynch (Pesco's lynch) when I did was less safe than pushing the lynch on Nuke, since "Pesco feels like scum by gut and Nuclear feels like scum by facts".

You're just stating an opinion without really answering Pesco's concern. So it looks like a deflection to me. The point is that in your comparison between Pesco and NF in #88, you vote Pesco despite giving what looks like more factual negatives against NF. Still looks like a deliberately odd choice.

And then midway through #169, you actually decide to back off and unvote Pesco. You don't revote anybody by the end of this post and Pesco was not in danger of any speed lynch so I don't know why you did this. Should note though that this also drops Pesco's wagon back down to 3 votes, making it equal with Donut and Dorian. You then unofficially vote Nuclear Fusion, I guess for symbolic sake which if anything is a reversal from your comparative stance between the two of them (even after NF's claim). And then at the end, you say you're not sure who to put your vote on, yet you also say of the 3 wagons, the one you are "entirely unhappy" with is Donut. The thing is that you never mention or quote anything of Donut's until you get to this tl:dr part at the end. So you suddenly hold your vote and it looks like you hint at a Donut vote out of the blue and when all the wagons are tied. You end up being the swing vote that shifts the momentum from Pesco to Donut who becomes a mislynched Townie. I feel that whole post has a weird feel to it.

One thing to mention regarding Pesco, he said that Nietz would be his second choice after NF.
And according to the voting record, Nietz has never gone near NF.

The thing is neither has Zakeri or I gone near NF for those amongst us who publically admitted not liking NF's claim. In this regard, both Zakeri and Nietz had voted for Pesco. And Pesco had spent time to ask Zakeri why he had voted him over NF. So Pesco, how does Nietz suddenly deserve your second vote over Zakeri?

Conclusion: I see a funny triangle between Pesco, Zakeri and NF now with distancing and/or confrontation that could both indicate scumbuddy pairings. In terms of the individual who I'd vote for the most, Zakeri's influence as the vote swinger objectively makes him look the worst in regards to Donut's mislynch, especially when he gave little actual points for why Donut was the one he was the most unhappy with when he hinted at it. Crazily enough, statements above can give the impression he's trying not to have Pesco or NF lynched while at the same time Pesco has been gunning for NF for a while. It's messy all around.

The whole deal with Nuclear Fusion seems to be we can't see eye to eye on anything from playstyle to probability of the Doc protection or whatever. You're continually drawing attention to yourself and touting your role now even when you are effectively useless including preemptively defending your scenario and comparing it from Town/Scum perspectives. Holding the roleblocker in place doesn't mean that much because you're actually ensuring that the roleblocker is doing something useful for the Mafia. I'd vote between you and Zakeri equally as there is also a decent scumbuddy link between the two of you, but I'll settle for Zakeri ONLY because if I'm wrong about either of you... at least you are holding the roleblocker in place.

##Vote Zakeri
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 19, 2009, 10:59:24 AM
Question to Serpentarius: You say in #153 that you think Donut defending Pesco "may be justified at this point." I missed this earlier and should have questioned your reasoning as to why you thought this. I know this is now coming after Donut's flip, but let's hear what you have to say anyways.

The full relevant quote was:

Quote from: Serpentarius
Donut has been defending Pesco, but I think that may be justified at this point.  We're running low on time, and so we should be saying why we're dismissing the cases that we don't subscribe to.

It's not that I thought that Pesco was any more worthy of defense at that point - rather, time was running down, so it's well within townie conduct to attack the cases that you don't subscribe to.  Earlier in the day, I think it's more of a scumtell to defend other people, since you ought to let them defend themselves and see what comes of that, but late in the day, there's just not time for the exchange to continue that way.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 11:01:05 AM
Stayed up late to write this I see :P

I had already resigned to being lynched when I gave gave Nietz as my second choice. It's an opinion from a self-centered defensive position. I'll need a review to reconstruct my points against him. Basics of it being that I felt he was voting me purely from siding with Rou's view and providing nothing special on me.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 01:57:53 PM
Alright, let's see:
New NF:
"Oh hey guys, I was roleblocked"
I am inclinded to remain suspicious of stuff like this due to certain games that were played here with similar situations, except the player in question was a lot less reckless.

"If I were scum" WIFOM.
If you were scum, you'd know what you would do if you were scum, so you'd do the opposite of that. But wait, you know that the town expects you to do that, so you'll do the opposite!

"Guys, I play Mafia with my own style, which is making useless gambits. You guys play in a boring way"
-_- Because playing in a logical manner is obviously not as good as jumping to random conclusions and creating Grand Asspulls.

NF, I have no clue to as what the hell you're trying to do. If you're trying to redeem your anti-town/scummy actions from Day 1, you're doing it wrong, because you're acting exactly like on Day 1.

Pesco:
Well, everything previous to Post 176, I thought you could be scum or town, seeing as you were doing what you do every game. Useless comments, fight with Roukan, etc. Well, you're scummy every game, but I'm leaning neutral rather then scum now.  However, I'd like to ask you a question about post 176. What was the point of it? It really is obvious information, and it looked like purposely weak distancing from Donut.
Oh yeah, it was around that time when you started breadcruming stuff, such as your role. Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge imformation?
Afterwords, Pesco is trying to get NF killed for being useless. Nulltell, because while Pesco is trying to lynch the cop, NF is useless right now, and is possibly scum trying to act like a cop.

Nietz:
Makes a case on Donut, claiming he wants to attract a bandwagon...thus, starting the Donut bandwagon, somewhat. Now, Donuts bandwagon didn't go anywhere because NF started getting a load of (justified) votes. But still, what the hell?
Abandons Donut vote, using the same reason Pesco would use later; Donut could not possibly pull it off(he's an idiot). (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42738#msg42738) Whee! Then hops onto NF's/Pescos wagon. Votes Pesco after NF's copclaim, and then the rest of the day, he tries to help Roukan bury Pesco. I agree with Pesco saying that Nietz was basically following along with Roukan without much originality, which seems opportunistic.
[notserious]Oh yeah, Nietz is always scum. XD[/notserious]

Basically, I'm going to vote Nietz, because NF seems more like completely useless townie cop, and I'd like Pesco to answer my questions before I do anything else.

##Vote:Nietz
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 02:02:33 PM
EBWOP:Oh yeah, right. I'm going to do a re read of Zakeri.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 02:51:21 PM
176 was me prepared to be lynched. I state my view and how it should be taken.

Why does only 176 stand out to you for questioning?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 04:40:50 PM
NF's posts from most recent to the beginning of the game that accuse Affinity of anything.

Quote
From what I see in those first 100 posts, however... I see Dorian not doing much of anything, I see Cart jumping to dorian's defense whenever he can, I see Affinity doing almost nothing also. I see Serp generally trying to hunt scum. I see donut and pesco getting conflated for almost no reason, mostly because of Rouk and Neitz. Rouk and Neitz also seem to be generally searching for scum. Zakeri seems happy to just jump on whatever looks shiny at the moment. And Kiro... I don't even know what he is doing exactly.

So my scum list right now is Dorian, Cart, and Affinity. Pesco is following it up only because I don't like his claim, which is a terrible reason to want to lynch somebody I think. Leaning townie on Neitz, Serp, and Rouk, and feeling pretty mediocre on the rest.
Quote
Affinity ? You should read more Oscar Wilde
Wonders why I have a problem with a weak reason. Wonders why I didn?t vote Neitz if I don?t like Neitz?s weak reason and I didn?t have a serious vote beforehand. Votes me. Thinks pesco is avoiding questions.
Quote
Affinity - Are you normally an aggressive player? Do you feel the need to throw a vote around every post? Please respond to this.

...

So the only person I've got any feelings on is... Dorian, huh.

That's al that's said about Affinity before the vote. I think it's strange that you should decide to vote Affinity right from the go based on this progression of suspicion. Furthermore, investigating Carthrat is fine but even without a result, why was there no preliminary case presented on him?

This is serious flailing.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 19, 2009, 05:54:34 PM
About NF: Roleblocked claims sucks, because it's one of the things a fake cop is most likely to claim, the other being that he investigated the NK'd guy. However, if he is indeed a cop and scum does have a RB, it would be the most likely action for them as well.
I don't see how Nk'ing and roleblocking the cop would be a likely strategy for scum. Seems a waste of resources, considering that a town-NF would be a prime candidate for lynch after coming up with a "I got blocked".
The lack of death was unexpected, I can only suppose a doc guessed right or scum hit a bulletproof.

1) I said I'm not sharing my aspirins, it means I'm keeping their benefit for myself. Aspirins were ingested because I did have a headache.
2) The only confirmation of my role is that I never said I was vanilla.
Speaking of BPs, the only possible way I can interpret this claim is as a limited-use bulletproof. If it's true, then that would make you the failed target of scum last night. And I just can't see scum targeting you. Ever.

Perma RB is lame, so the supposed cop isn't going to deliver anything for the rest of the game? By his merits as a player alone, he's good to be lynched.
What's that supposed to mean? That he should be lynched even if he is a cop, because he's not going to be of use?

Nietz:
Makes a case on Donut, claiming he wants to attract a bandwagon...thus, starting the Donut bandwagon, somewhat. Now, Donuts bandwagon didn't go anywhere because NF started getting a load of (justified) votes. But still, what the hell?
Abandons Donut vote, using the same reason Pesco would use later; Donut could not possibly pull it off(he's an idiot). (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42738#msg42738) Whee! Then hops onto NF's/Pescos wagon. Votes Pesco after NF's copclaim, and then the rest of the day, he tries to help Roukan bury Pesco. I agree with Pesco saying that Nietz was basically following along with Roukan without much originality, which seems opportunistic.
[notserious]Oh yeah, Nietz is always scum. XD[/notserious]

Basically, I'm going to vote Nietz, because NF seems more like completely useless townie cop, and I'd like Pesco to answer my questions before I do anything else.
I did find scum-pesco once with the Preemptive Bandwagon theory (even though town didn't believe me and he stealth-hammered me then), so I thought it could be applied here as well. I did give up on that because wasn't acting like the kind of player that pulls this kind of plot (which is different than pesco saying he's an idiot so it's OK to ignore him).
And while I did agree with Rou's arguments, it's not like just decided to agree with him at one point and call pesco scum. If you look at my Day 1 post you'll see that in almost all of them I'm suspicious of pesco.
Besides, if you believe NF is town, why wouldn't I choose him over pesco? It would have been completely justifiable at that point.

If I were to say what tipped me over to pesco, it was his aspirin-crumbing shenanigans. I don't see how that would be useful except as a way to pave his way to a believable flavour-claim.
So yeah, I'm still for a pesco lynch.

##Vote pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 06:18:23 PM
Quote
What's that supposed to mean? That he should be lynched even if he is a cop, because he's not going to be of use?

We have no proof other than his word that he's a cop. Ignoring what role he is, his play has been scummy enough to warrant being lynched.

Quote
Speaking of BPs, the only possible way I can interpret this claim is as a limited-use bulletproof. If it's true, then that would make you the failed target of scum last night. And I just can't see scum targeting you. Ever.

And I never claimed as such either. There's no rule that prevents scum from forgoing their NK.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 07:18:49 PM
Got back from going places w/family. I'll have something on Zak later. First, answering time.

@Pesco:
It stands out because if you were to flip scum, it would implicate Donut(who would be alive if you were lynched) more then if you hadn't said anything, because to me, it looked like a purposely poor way to distance yourself from a "scumbuddy". There's little to no need for you to say anything if you were town, as it should be assumed that town or scum could have defended town(town or scumDonut could have defended townPesco), and is thus a null tell. This depends on two things though. One, Donut was town, which he was, and two, you're scum, which I can't prove right now, but I can assume due to various things. Even then, that statement was useless at best, if you really are town.

summary: I think that post seemed to be a way for scumPesco to help out scum by making donut a prime lynch target day 2, before he got lynched, which was what he was assuming would happen. It didn't happen.

Pesco, you didn't answer my second question.
Oh yeah, it was around that time when you started breadcruming stuff, such as your role. Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?
I do believe that Nietz is also interested in that.
Quote from: Nietz
If I were to say what tipped me over to pesco, it was his aspirin-crumbing shenanigans. I don't see how that would be useful except as a way to pave his way to a believable flavour-claim.
So yeah, I'm still for a pesco lynch.

@Nietz:
Oh, it happened in another game? Well, I guess it's a fair point.
Alright then.
The only reason I find NF town is because no one counter claimed cop. Even then, he's useless in his current state, as he is being roleblocked apparently, and he's being useless during the day too.

Apparently, Pesco needs a reason to answer questions.
##Unvote
##Vote Pesco

Also, votecount?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 08:34:47 PM
Zakeri:
Firstly, he doesn't post much. Not sure if this is lurking or real life stuff, but just something to note.

His first serious post is a summary of posts of Donut, Pesco and NF, along with opinions on the previous three, an opinion on Dorian, and answering Carthrat. His next post, which is a summary of the first serious one, has him voting Pesco, and stating that he could possibly vote NF. Nothing new or suspicious there; Pesco and NF were the two primary targets during that time. From his lists, it'd seem like he'd vote NF, but Pesco was a fine target too. Taking in some other stuff later on, it could be Zak bussing Pesco, assuming they're scum.

Zakeri then responds to NF's 87. Nothing wrong here either, although you can see his focus start to home onto NF, from his initial Pesco and NF. [irrelevant]The first quote response was pretty funny.[/irrelevant]

Zakeri vanishes for almost 100 posts. Procedes to unvote Pesco and "vote" NF while questioning NF on various matters, and gives an opinion of Donut's vote change. The major thing here is that he finally unvotes Pesco, and votes NF, which is a pretty logical step considering his focus on NF.

Zakeri's 197, I find weird. He suddenly decides that Donut is the least likely to be town out of the Three Wagons of Day 1, after he was looking at Pesco and NF more. States his thoughts on Dorian, and Pesco. His previous post was stating that he thought Donut's vote change was a null tell too. So...what? Why with sudden change of opinion on that?

Also, Zak says Pesco is good for stating his thought process, although I find that this is ironic. Zakeri(well, everyone pretty much) disliked NF's "effort=clear", and yet he himself was doing the same with Pesco, and how he liked Pesco was explaining his thought process. Basically, replace "NF" with "Zakeri", and "effort" with "Explaining thought process". Scummy thought process can exist too, just like scummy effort.

Overall, I find that Zakeri was fine until the end of Day 1, where he has a sudden change of heart concerning Donut(perhaps to secure Donut's lynch?), and his dubious reason for not voting Pesco. I'm currently fine with changing my vote to Zakeri, although I'm staying with Pesco until he gives some sort of answer to my question.

...Oh right, he has a post in Day 2. Uh, says he still dislikes NF, and randomly does some setup guessing. =V I really don't see anything here that changes my opinion of him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 08:37:35 PM
Quote
Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.

Quote
It stands out because if you were to flip scum, it would implicate Donut(who would be alive if you were lynched) more then if you hadn't said anything, because to me, it looked like a purposely poor way to distance yourself from a "scumbuddy". There's little to no need for you to say anything if you were town, as it should be assumed that town or scum could have defended town(town or scumDonut could have defended townPesco), and is thus a null tell. This depends on two things though. One, Donut was town, which he was, and two, you're scum, which I can't prove right now, but I can assume due to various things. Even then, that statement was useless at best, if you really are town.

summary: I think that post seemed to be a way for scumPesco to help out scum by making donut a prime lynch target day 2, before he got lynched, which was what he was assuming would happen. It didn't happen.

Clarify this. It makes absolutely no sense why you would vote Donut when changing your vote (with a substantial reason) to me would have been a wagon swinger. Further, tell us what the outcome is if I had flipped town? How does that make Donut look then?

Alice: I demand a copy of the day's final voting be included in the day end post.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 08:42:19 PM
EBWOP: Lame IIoA from Sodium ethynylbenzoate
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 09:05:58 PM
Quote
Why would that be a pro-town way to divulge information?

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.
Town knows wastes time figuring out what the breadcrumbs mean.
Confusion may arise.
YOU STILL GET SPECULATED ON, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENTLY. Instead of people speculating on how to use your ability or whatever the hell you're trying to avoid, people are speculating what your role is. A difference, but you're still painting a target on yourself for speculation.

Quote
Clarify this. It makes absolutely no sense why you would vote Donut when changing your vote (with a substantial reason) to me would have been a wagon swinger. Further, tell us what the outcome is if I had flipped town? How does that make Donut look then?
If you flipped town, then it would be a null tell on Donut. You didn't have to say anything for people to assume that. Town or scum can defend town. Why make obvious statements that can cause suspicion on other people depending on what you flip?

Also, I didn't think anything of 167 until Donuts flip. At the time, Donut seemed like a good vote and lynch target. I told you it depended on two things, and one of them was what Donut's alignment was. If I didn't know what Donut's alignment was, it'd just be pointless WIFOM, that wouldn't work at all. The only reason it works is because there are two main possibilities; you're scum or town. Why you would seemingly defend Donut if you were town, I have no idea. I do see why you would seemingly defend Donut if you were scum though. You posted it twice too, three posts apart, so that seems that you wanted it remembered if you died.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 09:10:26 PM
It certainly caused problems in that I didn't die because you didn't vote me.

I wasn't around when my wagon got derailed, so tell me from your perspective how it happened that I was no longer the prime lynch?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 19, 2009, 09:16:21 PM
I wasn't around when my wagon got derailed, so tell me from your perspective how it happened that I was no longer the prime lynch?
I wasn't technically playing when your wagon got derailed. It was Zakeri that pushed the Donut wagon above the others though(for what I think is a dubious reason), and Roukan(lol) was the one that derailed your wagon, and put Donut at L-1(so that there'd be a lynch). Yeah, I know, useless info, etc. That's all I know of the derailing though.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 09:24:06 PM
Okay then, let's hear from Zak about his wagon swinging.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 19, 2009, 09:31:03 PM
We have no proof other than his word that he's a cop. Ignoring what role he is, his play has been scummy enough to warrant being lynched.
While I agree that his actions have been scummy by themselves, I don't know how simply ignoring that he claimed cop and being rolebocked would help judging the situation.

Quote
And I never claimed as such either. There's no rule that prevents scum from forgoing their NK.
Of course you didn't, you've been avoiding being straight about everything you do the whole game, but it's the logical way for any other player to interpret your vague claim.
And why would scum forgo a NK? Only time I ever remember that being pulled out was us in GWU, to confirm a fake doc.

Why would breadcrumbing be a pro-town way to divulge information? Because it's better than massclaiming like an idiot and painting a target on myself for speculation.
Because the only option is to either massclaim or breadcrumb? And considering your claimed role would only affect yourself, there's no use to town for any breadcrumbs. The only possible purpouse would to validate a later claim, which is much more useful for scum trying to bullshit town.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 19, 2009, 09:43:31 PM
There's nothing more to my role for me to claim. I have aspirins, I use them, headache goes away. Whether or not headaches are significant for any other role, it's not known to me.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 20, 2009, 02:02:13 AM
Mod Insert, because Pesco wanted it:

Day 2 Vote Count - 2 Days, 3 Hours remaining
Nucleaire Fusion (3) - Pesco, Carthrat, Serpentarius
Pesco (2) - NEETz, EX NaBrO_3
Zakeri (2) - Affinity, Kiro
Affinity (1) - Nuclear Fusion
NEETz (0) - EX NaBrO_3

--------------------------------------------------------

Pesco was breadcrumbing his claimed role from the beginning of the game.  That doesn't seem like a townie move at all.  It seems to me like a plot in advance for the purpose of validating his own roleclaim for when he gets to L-1.

Quote from: Nietz
About NF: Roleblocked claims sucks, because it's one of the things a fake cop is most likely to claim, the other being that he investigated the NK'd guy. However, if he is indeed a cop and scum does have a RB, it would be the most likely action for them as well.
I don't see how Nk'ing and roleblocking the cop would be a likely strategy for scum. Seems a waste of resources, considering that a town-NF would be a prime candidate for lynch after coming up with a "I got blocked".

I'm looking at this from the other side - scum would rather kill the cop than just perpetually roleblock him, since if the roleblocker dies then the cop is suddenly dangerous again.  But if a doc is out there, then the kill would almost certainly be blocked, 'cause the doc would see no one more likely to be attacked than a claimed cop.  Furthermore, Nuke doesn't seem to be a prime candidate for lynch despite all this weirdness.  I get suspicious when other players don't seem to be seeing the same things I do.

Another thing I've noticed in my readthrough: it's just bad for Nuke to mention who he supposedly tried to investigate.  If scum has a framer, it gives them a clear person to frame, opening up all sorts of WIFOM if they purposefully leave him unblocked.  Combine this with his early roleclaim and all his strange conduct so far, and I just don't believe that he's actually the cop.  Combine that with the fact that he seems to be calling it quits, refusing to put anything more out there, and I don't see why we should give him another night to screw with us.

##Vote Nuclear Fusion

Still willing to vote Pesco.  I just did a re-read of Zakeri, too, and I do think it's odd how he distances himself from the nascent Donut wagon, then pushes Pesco 'till he looks like a sure lynch before suddenly backing off, distancing himself from the likely lynch again, and turning against Nuke.  He favored lynching the claimed cop on the first day, which I think was a scummy move, then when both the Pesco and the Donut wagons looked to have stalled, with Dorian as the apparent next up for lynching, he finally came down on Donut without any apparent provocation.  Count me as supporting a Zakeri lynch too at the moment.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 20, 2009, 03:17:56 AM
Yeah I'm not sure how much more obvscum NF needs to be to get lynched. Why are people letting him run away?

I'm not sure about this 'pesco is breadcrumbing into a later fakeclaim' theory. Why would he not, er, have claimed something solid by now if that was his plan from the start, instead of acting as though he has mysterious unknown powers? The day one pressure on NF and generally stringing out his responses are the two voteworthy things I can see from him, and the former no longer looks quite as bad, poor a move as it might be.

Quote from: Nietz
I don't see how Nk'ing and roleblocking the cop would be a likely strategy for scum. Seems a waste of resources, considering that a town-NF would be a prime candidate for lynch after coming up with a "I got blocked".


And yet I find it many times more likely than either possibility that NF presented, and considering the other crazy gambit strategies from the get-go seems laughable. That said, I do believe a no-kill strategy is more likely at this stage, but only because I think NF himself is scum and it's the only way I can reconcile how his posting has developed across the game.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Affinity on July 20, 2009, 03:50:06 AM
NF, you said that the amount of knowledge you could get from Mafia excluding dead people (e.g bandwagon analysis), couldn't fit into a thimble.  Your failure to respond to anything I say makes you deserve a lynch, and I'm all for it today.

Still, before the deadline, I would like Zakeri to respond first.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 03:59:29 AM
this is starting to get a little crazy.

just finished page 8, will catch up and respond asap.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 20, 2009, 04:25:10 AM
I'm not sure about this 'pesco is breadcrumbing into a later fakeclaim' theory. Why would he not, er, have claimed something solid by now if that was his plan from the start, instead of acting as though he has mysterious unknown powers?

What better fakeclaim than something which looks unique, but doesn't have any mechanical effect for us to expect from him, or any possible counterclaim?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 05:30:29 AM
@Serp
Quote
If we don't lynch them as soon as it's clear that they'll be a liability, then when do we do it?
That's the idea I'm presenting - when it's apparent that they are going to be a liability. No later, no Sooner.

Whether Nuke was targeted by the nightkill or not makes no difference unless the Doctor claimed to have protected Nuke. even then, unless scum would want to confirm that, we still wouldn't have enough info to go on.

234-
Quote
I don't really like how you distanced away from the donut bandwagon on this sentence alone... so what do you mean by town pressure voting?  donut's pileups on Dorian and NF were a little opportunistic and didn't seem to convey any sense of pressure, after all; it seems a little bit that you wanted to get away from a misguided bandwagon as scum.
Adding another vote onto a bandwagon doesn't constitute pressure voting? It brings people to L-1 faster, which is suppose to make them respond with more haste than usual.

And why do I have to be scum to realize it's a misguided Wagon? I've already noted town and null tells in earlier posts. My real vote for the day would have gone to Serpentarius, except it wouldn't have done anyone any good to start a fresh bandwagon with only half an hour left in the day.

236 - Nuke WiFoMs himself into a corner without providing analysis on who he thinks is scum. Sorry to hear you lost sleep over this.

Quote
There is also a weird trait to his posting that assumes a cop is an inevitable fixture in the game, something I am far more willing to attribute to role-holding scum than town of any stripe, and the way he presents it is just downright unnatural as town in general.
I agree with this. His roleclaim looked more to me like "Well, crap, I'm going to get lynched. Okay, before I go, which one of you is the cop?"

added more to the above by the general weirdness when he realizes that even if the doctor claimed and proved himself and one townie innocent, it would still be a bad idea for the real cop to counterclaim today.

Quote
I do what I do for fun, and nothing more. Mafia is about enjoyment, and I'll play it how I see fit.
you are the Scrub to our Tournaments.
I've seen plenty of places where Mafia is played for fun. I've been to places where days are only 24 hours long. I've been to places where lynchblocking was a common mafia role. I've been to places where townies can revive those who died, role pm intact. I've been to places where the mod is asked to give decipherable clues that if figured out would lead the town to a mafioso that killed whichever townie died last night.

This is not any of those places. Get over it.

Quote
What's even funnier is that you assume I said we only had bandwagon analysis. Now I know your not even reading my posts, thanks affinity.
Then what was all of that you said about how ineffective our scumtells are? I remember you complaining about how town can do all of the things that we considered scumtells, which left only bandwagon analysis. Apparently, the only scum tells that exist for you is whoever is currently voting for you.

Quote
My theory on who scum are - Affinity and Pesco.
Case in point -
Affinity: has been calling your actions anti-town ever since you've been acting anti-town. Obvscum
Pesco: Is voting for you because he believes your merits as a player isn't worth keeping an unconformable roleclaimer alive. Obvscum.

Quote
Oh, and on the subject of replacing me - in case somebody cares to try... I don't think he'll be in any better position, so don't bother.
Off topic, but personally, I'd love to. It'd be my greatest Challenge ever since I dug myself out after replacing Donut. Though, I still could have done a better job surviving.

Kiro's 250 pisses me off. Mostly because it's filled with a decent case against me that any logical scumhunter besides myself should notice and point out.

I neglected to say that I was voting for Pesco to see his reaction. I agreed Nuke was lynchworthy based on his list of crimes, but the point of my vote was that I was less sure. By the time I had wanted to vote Nuke (The point you noted as unconfirmed voting for him) He had already claimed cop and the general consensus was to let him live until day 2.

As for my donut vote, all I can really say was that I believed, and I still believe that voting for donut was my best option at that time. My real answer was that I didn't believe any of Pesco, Dorian, or Donut were scum, yet the only other options I could turn to were all useless (Nuke, Serp, not voting at all, etc.).

My Main vote right now would like to go to Nuke, but I'd like to see a votecount and deadline information before I do. I don't know exactly what to pull from Serp by now though, and I'll relook Pesco again since Neitz and Sodium did provide good points against him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 20, 2009, 05:49:43 AM
Muovo ancora un pezzo sul la scacchiera, ancora un destino aveva decisio.
Tutto ? possibile! Tutto pu? diventare realt?!
Logica pu? risolvere tutto!
La fine di mille annuta incontro del scacchi ? imminente.
Sar? scacco matto per me, o per te? La fate del mondo ? in pericolo, fa tuo mosse subito!
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0xaOjui1vQ&fmt=18)

Day 2 Vote Count - 1 Day, 23 Hours remaining
Nucleaire Fusion (3) - Pesco, Carthrat, Serpentarius
Pesco (2) - NEETz, EX NaBrO_3
Zakeri (2) - Affinity, Kiro
Affinity (1) - Nuclear Fusion
NEETz (0) - EX NaBrO_3

Not Voting: Roukanken

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch! Good luck!

(also, the above text is not song lyrics from an existing song in Umineko, but rather something that basically just popped into my head the second I heard mortal stampede, translated into Italian. As I do not know Italian, this may wind up being more like Itarian, I make no claims to the correctness of said text, feel free to PM me with corrections, etc :P)

Edit: it takes skill to post a correct votecount on the previous page, and copypasta it into a wrong one here >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 06:01:38 AM
Thanks.

##Vote: Nuclear Fusion
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 07:08:26 AM
Alice: I meant put the vote count here (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43396#msg43396)

Can't think of anything decent to post right now. I miss Rou already.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Kiro on July 20, 2009, 08:19:07 AM
Serp's #251 answer to my question: Alright. since you did mention that before the following quote:
According to the last votecount, we still have a day left, don't worry.

It might be reasonable enough to conclude that you thought time was running out despite Donut defending Pesco a full 24+ hours before the deadline. Point is neutral.

Pesco's #252 answer to my question: Hrm, I don't know what you are expecting in terms of "special" evidence against you. My impression is that all the votes on you are for general evasiveness. There's no particular incident to pick out because the argument with Rou dragged on through pages. Your pick of Nietz could have been how you felt, but it's not a completely satisfactory answer since it's something you should have thought about with more effort if you're under the threat of being mislynched now that you say it was from a "self-centered defensive position" rather than a "give Town my best judgment if I do eat rope."

I should reread Sodium's posts more. The switching from voting Nietz to Pesco represented a sudden change in opinion and I should look into it more. But he's not a priority for today.

Zakeri: I don't see you mentioning Serpentarius as suspicios in your post with the Donut vote. You do present a bunch of questions for him right after the hammer vote, but it's not like you actually mentioned any intent on voting him. The rest of your answers are more or less what I expected, but this first point about Serp is not convincing. I think your case is still notable and worth keeping in mind.

Re NF:
Also, I'd self vote since you guys clearly want me dead, but I hate people who self vote. So I'm jsut not going to bother posting except after this one.

That's really helpful of you to just roll over and die... only if you're Scum. If you're Town and had even a remote interest in seeing Town win, I feel you'd have more to say to dissuade all these negative comments about you and to catch Scum by the means all Townies have, through open discussion and cases. I failed to notice the above during my last wall, but intentionally not wanting to post is probably the worst you can do and that's the last straw. And whoever your teammates are must be disappointed in you and I'm sure they'll let you know in postgame. You just better not be flipping Town, it'll mean more people have the right to be angry at you. I'll switch my vote here and maybe if he's Town, he'll feel compelled to come back and defend himself.

##Unvote Zakeri
##Vote Nuclear Fusion
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 20, 2009, 08:47:45 AM
Yeah so like Nucleaire Fusion's at L-1. It seems to be abundantly clear that he is not coming back, too >_>

Since he didn't ask for replacement, I'm not going to forcibly replace him. However, he is still subject to standard inactivity modkill rules, in case anyone is wondering (i.e. another 24 hours and he gets modkilled).
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 09:04:01 AM
Will the modkill be inactivity modkill or punishment modkill?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 09:06:18 AM
The point I made about voting for Serp makes sense to me. I guess I keep forgetting that I'm the only one that can see into my mind.

I took a quick look at all of the votes and unvotes of donut's bandwagon, and i do agree that my vote looks the scummiest. I hope Pesco doesn't turn out to be scum for my sake.

Next scummiest in my opinion would be Affinity and Dorian, who both supported each other's vote with the same single reason
Quote
Dorian, aside from his seemingly incoherent post, makes a good point.  What I understand from his voting reasons is that you seemed to jump onto the NF bandwagon for a single reason, which was that his 'effort always deserves to get by" was scummy.  How was this different from the 'I overlook long posts because they show effort' thing he said earlier, which you questioned in a rather friendly way?
they both prod Donut, and when Donut never got around to answering the question, the only mention of it is Affinity saying he's still waiting for donut to answer (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43341#msg43341) well after it's apparent he missed the question. they essentially left two prod votes on donut. This is also the first two votes after Serp and Neitz's who both unvoted later.

Dorian's vote is also weird in that while his inactivity is the reason he didn't unvote, Sodium put the vote back onto Donut. The only person Sodium actually touches on at the end of the day is Donut

...Rereading what I just wrote, my point against Dorian/Sodium ended up being weak, due to inactivity and being pressed for time as a replacement. Affinity, however, gets no such slack because there's really no excuse for him.

Cut by ARISU: This game ought to be really fun.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 09:09:39 AM
##Extension in the meantime
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 09:33:07 AM
Almost forgot:

Nuclear Fusion - joke vote confirmed by Donut's long reacting post. unvotes because he felt he had more on Dorian than Donut.
neitz - For Trying to attract attention early game. Unvotes because Donut is not master of plan enough to try it as scum.
Serpentarius - Agrees with Neitz. Unvotes to pick on Dorian for not posting often enough.
Dorian [sodum] - For jumping onto the Nuke Wagon to get attention off of him.
Affinity - agreed with Dorian
Kiro - Notes Donut's three tells, votes with belief that donut is scum
Zakeri - tipped the bandwagon towards Donut. Admits to not fully thinking he was scum.
Roukanken - tipped the votes all the way to donut because I switched off pesco.
Carthrat - Hammer for great justice.

basically what I got from my first scan.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 20, 2009, 09:38:54 AM
A reading of the rules seems to indicate NF will be lynched and, if town, the day will end; if scum, the timer resets, effectively skipping a night phase. Correct me if I'm wrong here, circumstances are odd.

So basically I think we should let time run out and see what happens.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Serp on July 20, 2009, 10:13:39 AM
No, it says in the rules that inactivity kills aren't punishment kills, and don't reset the time.  So if Nuke gets modkilled, we can still choose another lynch for this day phase.  As things stand, we have an extra kill to burn without shortening the game by another day.  If we lynch Nuke before the modkill, and the kills from here continue at the standard rate (no blocks or modkills), we'll go into even player LYLO.  If we let Nuke get modkilled and then lynch someone else today, then we'll be on our way to odd player LYLO.  However, if we lynch Nuke before the modkill, and then a kill is blocked, and there are no further modkills or other monkey business, then we've bought ourselves an extra day and go into odd player LYLO.  All of this remains true even if Nuke flips town.  I'm not sure which strategy to take yet, so I'm holding my extension vote.

Also:

Quote from: Zakeri
That's the idea I'm presenting - when it's apparent that they are going to be a liability. No later, no Sooner.

So then we're back to waiting 'till LYLO to lynch lurkers by your philosophy.  Do you really think it's good for town to have to pick between a decent case on one player and a complete lurker about which there is no information at all, with the whole game on the line?  Anything that increases confusion is scummy.

And one more thing:

##Unvote

I don't like leaving anyone at L-1, even my preferred lynch, with more than 24 hours in the day.  I'll be online in the hours before the modkill, if it's the consensus that Nuke ought to be hammered before he can be modkilled.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Affinity on July 20, 2009, 10:46:07 AM
@Zakeri:

But he already answered after awhile here (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43383#msg43383).  Furthermore, I don't see how it was apparent that donut wasn't answering at all, and I don't see how it makes me scummy just because I agreed with Dorian.  I also, of course had other reasons for donut's lynch, which have already been said; sudden votes and lack of scumhunting were points already implicit in the discussion.

Quote
Adding another vote onto a bandwagon doesn't constitute pressure voting? It brings people to L-1 faster, which is suppose to make them respond with more haste than usual.

You're missing the point.  Scum can also pressure vote, really, and that vote wasn't convincing as the discussion was already pointing out, which points to scum.  At the very least you could have stated why you found his votes convincing, but you did not.

Quote
My real answer was that I didn't believe any of Pesco, Dorian, or Donut were scum

I don't like this reversal; you said that the only bandwagon you were not happy with was the donut one.  This inconsistency kind of has to be noted, even if you forgot to say that you were 'prodding' pesco.

---

@Sodium:

Quote
Oh, it happened in another game? Well, I guess it's a fair point.

While I liked your questioing of pesco and Nietz, the reason for changing a completely alright case against Nietz is kind of questionable.  Just because it happened in another game does not really mean anything objectively.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 11:35:39 AM
This:

Nietz:
Makes a case on Donut, claiming he wants to attract a bandwagon...thus, starting the Donut bandwagon, somewhat. Now, Donuts bandwagon didn't go anywhere because NF started getting a load of (justified) votes. But still, what the hell?
Abandons Donut vote, using the same reason Pesco would use later; Donut could not possibly pull it off(he's an idiot). (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42738#msg42738) Whee! Then hops onto NF's/Pescos wagon. Votes Pesco after NF's copclaim, and then the rest of the day, he tries to help Roukan bury Pesco. I agree with Pesco saying that Nietz was basically following along with Roukan without much originality, which seems opportunistic.
[notserious]Oh yeah, Nietz is always scum. XD[/notserious]

Basically, I'm going to vote Nietz, because NF seems more like completely useless townie cop, and I'd like Pesco to answer my questions before I do anything else.
I did find scum-pesco once with the Preemptive Bandwagon theory (even though town didn't believe me and he stealth-hammered me then), so I thought it could be applied here as well. I did give up on that because wasn't acting like the kind of player that pulls this kind of plot (which is different than pesco saying he's an idiot so it's OK to ignore him).
And while I did agree with Rou's arguments, it's not like just decided to agree with him at one point and call pesco scum. If you look at my Day 1 post you'll see that in almost all of them I'm suspicious of pesco.
Besides, if you believe NF is town, why wouldn't I choose him over pesco? It would have been completely justifiable at that point.

Got answered by this:

@Nietz:
Oh, it happened in another game? Well, I guess it's a fair point.
Alright then.
The only reason I find NF town is because no one counter claimed cop. Even then, he's useless in his current state, as he is being roleblocked apparently, and he's being useless during the day too.

So what exactly is going on in between here?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 20, 2009, 12:02:28 PM
@Serp: read the rules :P Inactivity modkills work just as any others do, resetting time to 0 if the person modkilled is Scum, and resetting time to deadline if the person modkilled is Town (and if the player modkilled is third-party, no time reset occurs).
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 20, 2009, 01:39:31 PM
While I liked your questioing of pesco and Nietz, the reason for changing a completely alright case against Nietz is kind of questionable.  Just because it happened in another game does not really mean anything objectively.
While I do like that he dropped the case on me and do approve of pursuing pesco, I have to admit this was a little strange. Especially considering that me basing my theory on previous experience was just a minor part of my answer to him.

@Serp: read the rules :P Inactivity modkills work just as any others do, resetting time to 0 if the person modkilled is Scum, and resetting time to deadline if the person modkilled is Town (and if the player modkilled is third-party, no time reset occurs).
So, as things are, if NF doesn't post soon, the day will end/reset regardless of extension or not?

I don't like the possibility of the day ending without Rou even making a post, but I guess it's up to NF to show up.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Sodium on July 20, 2009, 01:41:57 PM
Quote from: Affinity
While I liked your questioing of pesco and Nietz, the reason for changing a completely alright case against Nietz is kind of questionable.  Just because it happened in another game does not really mean anything objectively.
Bah. Got lazy. I meant that it was in another and WORKED. I found it okay because it apparently worked when it was used(unless someone can disprove that or something), not just because he used it in another game. I'd use something that I know worked before to find scum, and that's how Nietz explained himself. =V

@Pesco:
1.Look at what I said on the Affinity Quote
2.The alright then was me deciding to look over his posts again to check if what he said was true. I found it true enough, found it an acceptable answer, and so, stopped pursuing it.
3....Whoops. Misread the question. I thought he was asking why I thought NF was town. =V
...Uh, Nietz. "why wouldn't I choose him(NF) over Pesco?". I believe you were going to use "would".
If you did mean "wouldn't", then what? Explain yourself.
Otherwise, now that I actually understand what you were saying, I can see it was justifiable at that point, because NF wasn't going to get lynched that day, and I'm guessing you didn't want to vote Donut.

Also, Nietz had no actual opinion on Dorian what so ever during Day 1. Why?

The plan is to just let NF get inactivity modkilled right? Fine with me, don't see anything we can really lose. Alice, could we get a timer for that?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 20, 2009, 07:04:52 PM
Agh. FINALLY managed to get hold of the internet, but I'm really not going to have a dependable connection until late Thursday. I've only got time to take a quick look at the thread so this is all I'm gonna be able to contribute for a few days.

Pesco is basically saying 'I don't care if you're Town NF, you're useless so we'll lynch you'. It comes out sounding like a scum looking for a cheap excuse to lynch a player like Wrathie, and I don't like it. That in combination with his 'I'm not vanilla but I'm not claiming a role' is enough to seriously irk me.

##Vote: Pesco

I still think this takes precedence over the NF lynch/modkill, because NF is basically the new Wrathie IMO.

I'm going to try reading up on the rest of the thread, but my time is pretty short tbh. I'll do what I can...
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 07:08:41 PM
There's a difference there. Wrathie doesn't give off scum vibes and is actually difficult to force as a mislynch.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 20, 2009, 07:34:12 PM
NF looks to me like one of the players from another Mafia forum game I play - more focused on having a laugh than actually playing well. Quite obviously he isn't used to the more forceful and difficult analysis we have over here.
The lack of a cop CC is still enough to make me cautious about lynching him, that's for certain.
If anything, the storming off makes him look more confirmed to me, the sign of a Townie who can't argue for his own sake and is probably verging on distraught. Scum NF would have nothing to gain from storming off in a huff and getting himself modkilled, if you ask me.

Carth's post here seems weird:
Quote
I'm not sure about this 'pesco is breadcrumbing into a later fakeclaim' theory. Why would he not, er, have claimed something solid by now if that was his plan from the start, instead of acting as though he has mysterious unknown powers? The day one pressure on NF and generally stringing out his responses are the two voteworthy things I can see from him, and the former no longer looks quite as bad, poor a move as it might be.
Here's a question, Carth - if Pesco isn't trying to set himself up for a fakeclaim, what the hell is he doing? By saying 'I'm a role but I'm not saying what' he's already painted a target on himself for the Mafia, so there should be no harm in saying exactly what he is. If he was something like Bomb or BP he shouldn't be making any sort of claim at all, surely.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 07:44:01 PM
Wouldn't you say NF has some similarities to me back when I didn't get along with Kilga?

Lack of counterclaiming is a poor excuse for letting someone off the hook. Consider what would happen in my games, any bullshit role claimed will not be counterclaimed because it's pretty well likely that the role is so obscure that no counter exists.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 20, 2009, 08:06:08 PM
Did you strut off in a huff and try to get yourself modkilled? I forget.

Also, considering the lack of modkill, I find it hard to believe this game is entirely role-free. At the very least, the Mafia don't think so because either their kill was blocked or they want it to look like the kill was blocked.
Better yet, why would they want to do the latter? The lack of an NK would only be useful if one of the Mafiosi used it to fakeclaim Doc, which hasn't happened. Thus I'm inclined to believe the Mafia honestly did try to kill last night and came up short.

In other news my laptop is dying very quickly, so unless someone replies really soon this'll probably be my last post of the day. Sorry again for the circumstances.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 20, 2009, 08:36:51 PM
I got myself modkilled in YOUR game >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 20, 2009, 09:50:04 PM
alright. First of all, ##Unvote: Nuclear Holocaust since the rules state he'll be auto-lynched anyway.

Affinity-
Quote
But he already answered after awhile here. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43383#msg43383)
This does nothing to help against my point. My point was you were letting donut slide in terms of answering.

as for donut's not answering...

Original complaint (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42843#msg42843)
147 - Donut clears up an earlier point, doesn't seem to notice your argument
149 - Dorian repeats your argument to clearify that's what he was looking for.
154 (Next page) - piggybacks on serp's vote
158 -
Quote
we still have a day left
162 - donut defends against Kiro. Still no mention of what you posted
164 - Donut again responds with nothing useful.[/s]
165 - damn it. I overlooked the bulk of this post when I made my case on affinity. Alright, I withdraw my case on affinity since it was largely based on what I though was him not presenting any opinions or reasons on the donut bandwagon he was on.

I've been trying to look back on my posts to follow my own train of logic. It's barely there, here's everything I see.

169 - I was starting to shift my focus onto Nuke here, since he couldn't stop from being a huge distraction (Being a distraction from pesco is a big honor, BTW). Ultimately, I was starting to see that Roukanken was victimizing Pesco for what looked like minor points. Specifically, Rou had been operating on Pesco's sudden assumption that Donut was an idiot, and used his initial wording as a contradiction. I admit, it does look weird to me, but it's not really anything to hold up an entire case. I don't think* I was unconditionally rewarding Pesco like Nuke did to Serp. I believe that if a person can explain their thought process with detail, rather than just leave vague comments when asked to explain, then they are making an effort to tell the truth, which can only hurt scum in the long run.

after saying I was entirely unhappy with the donut lynch, I then became entirely unhappy with the Dorian lynch. I realize Dorian had said one or two things that could be read as scummy, but he's also said a few things that could be read as townie. That any the most townie seeming voice going after Dorian seemed to have been operating under the conclusion that "If we do not lynch someone who only posted sporadically for the first half of the first day by the end of the first day, that person will never be lynched, never be modkilled due to inactivity, never ask to be replaced, never do or say anything that would give people the impression that he's townie or scummy, and will be let slip by all the way until lylo where he will be town and we will only then want to lynch him for lurking."

I suppose the bigger contradiction then saying I was entirely unhappy with the donut lynch and then voting donut, was saying that I wasn't planning on making the mistake of protecting Pesco, and then making that same mistake. I still don't understand what it is about Roukanken Vs. Pesco debates that I end up becoming Pesco's Schmuck.
---
Hi, Roukan. Glad you could make it for a little while. For the record, I think Dorian is the new Wrathie, and I don't say that just because Dorian had trouble writing in english. If anything, I would compare Nuke to how I play on those forums you're mentioning, except instead of yelling at everyone telling them about how to win the game, he's yelling at everyone telling them about how to lose the game.

Also, I just lost the game.

Still, you do bring up valid points. I would have expected a ScumNuke to have come and explained to everyone that he's scum, forcing us to lynch him and preventing the counter from reseting.

...I think I just realized what it is about Roukanken Vs. Pesco debates that turn me into a Pesco Schmuck  :V

*Note: At least, that's what I would like to say. The more I think about it, the more I realized the Pesco is indeed trying to be vague about things. It would have done Pesco much better to explain what he thought about Donut when he unvoted him, rather than have had it pulled out of him. Even now people are struggling to get Pesco to convey something that looks like information out of him.

as for Pesco's breadcrumbs and such

Quote
I have aspirins and I'm not going to be sharing them. Aspirins are headache tablets if you're not sure what I'm talking about.
He shares them with only himself, which means the pills are for his headaches.
Quote
Natsuhi, wife of Krauss. A jerkass bitch with well-meaning intentions. And I have aspirins for use at night. Aspirins contain salicylic acid and ease headaches, that's all there is to it.
He can prevent headaches. No information of what causes headaches.
Quote
The only confirmation of my role is that I never said I was vanilla.
What this basically means is that Pesco is trying to ellude to a certain role. The key here is that he never said he wasn't Vanilla. I'm lead to believe that his headache medicine does something similar to what my traffic signs did in Real Women of Science.

And yes, I do agree with Roukanken that it's an absolute crappy way of putting yourself up for the nightkill.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 20, 2009, 10:25:07 PM
Also, Nietz had no actual opinion on Dorian what so ever during Day 1. Why?
Basically because there there wasn't much of Dorian for most of the day. If anything, I thought of him as a newbie lurker, which his later request for replacement confirmed.

Rou and I seem to be having the exact same thoughts about pesco, as most should have noticed. Also, I'm not much for comparing NF to wrathie, but I'm also hesitant to lynch him because the lack of counterclaim (though apparently he's going to die anyway).

Lack of counterclaiming is a poor excuse for letting someone off the hook. Consider what would happen in my games, any bullshit role claimed will not be counterclaimed because it's pretty well likely that the role is so obscure that no counter exists.
The amount of irony here just went off the scale. Do I have to remind you who claimed a common and easily countered role, and who claimed a bullshit obscure role with no counter here?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 20, 2009, 10:41:44 PM
@Alice: What happens to NF if we somehow lynch someone else before his modkill?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 21, 2009, 12:32:09 AM
Rou: Because there are numerous roles that, when claimed, become useless. Baiting is possible. WIFOM level at maximum for all parties involved. I just don't know, and I don't find it a scum or towntell either way. Thus, the inspection of his previous play is more worthwhile instead, and I'm yet to fully judge that.

All this counterclaim talk is totally stupid. Roles can be duplicated. Roles may not exist in the first place. Open minds, people.

Annnnd btw rou (and neitz really, since they claim to be the same) it's really odd that you'd try and push a pesco lynch here over NF on those grounds, who's stormed off and not returned nor shown signs of that.

If NF's death is virtually inevitable, surely we want to see it before anyone else's in order to maximize the intel avaliable to us? I'm sensing people refusing to adapt to the situation and sticking with old methods.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 21, 2009, 01:22:00 AM
8 hours to Nucleaire Fusion modkill.

@Nietz: if you guys lynch someone nyao, then the modkill is processed during the night. If he is Scum, he is merely NK'd along with whatever other night actions may occur. If he is Town, another night phase occurs immediately after that one ends, with no intervening day phase between the two. So basically, it's the same result as if nobody was lynched today, and the modkill processed during this day phase.

I am going to try yelling at him one final time before modkilling him, though, because I'm nice like that, and it also gives me more reason to ban him from future games if he refuses to participate in the damn game.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Nietz on July 21, 2009, 03:46:25 AM
All this counterclaim talk is totally stupid. Roles can be duplicated. Roles may not exist in the first place. Open minds, people.

Annnnd btw rou (and neitz really, since they claim to be the same) it's really odd that you'd try and push a pesco lynch here over NF on those grounds, who's stormed off and not returned nor shown signs of that.

If NF's death is virtually inevitable, surely we want to see it before anyone else's in order to maximize the intel avaliable to us? I'm sensing people refusing to adapt to the situation and sticking with old methods.
That's a strange change of mind, since Day 1 you were arguing that NF shouldn't be lynched because of his claim, and now you've been pushing for his lynch the whole day while completely letting pesco aside.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 21, 2009, 05:51:41 AM
Nietz: Yes, and? I think I've elaborated pretty thoroughly on why...
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Pesco on July 21, 2009, 05:56:53 AM
There's only about 4 hours left on the modkill timer. Is there enough for a second lynch?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Carthrat on July 21, 2009, 05:59:02 AM
Timer gets reset if he flips scum, so there would be.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: Kiro on July 21, 2009, 06:40:56 AM
Man this is annoying. No one has argued in support of NF. The only deviations are pretty much in regards to who voted him and when, but I doubt we'd get that much from bandwagon analysis. The most notable person would be Pesco, but any combination of Pesco Scum/Town and NF Scum/Town can fit reasonably with the way they've played.

I just get the feeling that none of the other cases change much when we get NF's flip. This is just to reduce numbers and I really hope that Town isn't the one getting the raw end of the deal.

If NF flips Scum, I'm probably set to vote Zakeri again as I would think better of Pesco and worse of Zakeri through the triangle I put forward. If NF flips Town, gotta wait to see Night 2 results.

/end buffer post to prevent inactivity prod.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 21, 2009, 09:45:22 AM
Don't have time to do flavour, will edit this post with it later.

Nuclear Fusion was modkilled! They were Battler Ushiromiya, Townie Cop!

It is now Night 2, please send in actions to me and Edible, etc. Also feel free to send Nuclear Fusion nastygrams via email/PM/etc, I heartily endorse this product and/or service :P
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 2
Post by: Pesco on July 21, 2009, 10:16:40 AM
*Generic Frak You post* directed at the relevent parties.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 2
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 23, 2009, 01:21:28 AM
Will also update this post with flavour once I am done basically All The Quantum Physics Assignments In The World.

Last night, Nietz was killed! They were Shannon, Townie Jailkeeper!

It is now Day 2, you have 72 hours before deadline! Good luck!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 2
Post by: Nietz on July 23, 2009, 01:26:56 AM
ಠ_ಠ
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 2
Post by: Affinity on July 23, 2009, 02:59:32 AM
Quick and short post.

I feel that Roukanken is rather lacking in anything other than points on pesco, which is rather discomforting.  Some thoughts on other people would be nice.  Flip is surprising and interesting; it raises the possibility that NF was in fact NK'ed and that Nietz protected (more of roleblocked) him.  Not sure of the implications behind this, though.

##Vote: Roukanken
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 2
Post by: Serp on July 23, 2009, 04:22:48 AM
Well, that makes sense.  Nietz probably targetted Nuke the night before last, as did scum.  Much simpler than the alternatives.

Also note that we have 8 players left and it's not LyLo.  We're looking for two scum, not three.  The two main players that stick out at me right now are Pesco and Zakeri.  Pesco for roleclaim weirdness and general evasiveness, Zakeri out of pure bandwagon analysis.  Both also favored lynching Nuke without even giving him a night to see what would pop up.

I suppose it's not impossible that they're scumbuddies.  I'm not seeing any really obvious scumpartner for either of them to tip the scales.  Pesco seems scummier by a hair to me.

##Vote Pesco

I want both Pesco and Zakeri to put forward their preferred lynches after Nuke's and Nietz's flip.  After my readthrough, I don't really see Roukanken tunneling, what with commenting on the other wagons occasionally, but let's see what he has to say about the others now anyway, too.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 04:55:41 AM
I doubt Rou is scum purely by intuition. If he is, then he deserves to win.

By the same measure, I'm always wary of Kiro when he doesn't die within the first few nights. It's not a sound accusation, so I won't be voting him for this.

Third option is Dorian/Sodium. Neither have been all that spectacular. I'd ask Sodium now to explain Dorian's posts in his own words.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 23, 2009, 05:16:06 AM
I'd ask Sodium now to explain Dorian's posts in his own words.

Oh boy, this should be fun.

Anyway, Zakeri isn't even a blip on your radar?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 23, 2009, 05:16:30 AM
8 people left. No LYLO warning. That's a decent sign. Looks like there's only 2 scum in this game. No telling if someone is a Survivor or not which would determine whether 5 or 6 Townies are left. Also, Jailkeeper and Cop combination... how counterproductive. Acts as a limiter to prevent 8 or 9 Townies from overrunning 2 Scum especially if 1 of them was lynched early.

Not liking Pesco at the moment. Along with the general evasiveness, he left his Day 1 vote on Nuclear Fusion when it was somewhat evident that the lynch wouldn't have gone through. That's rather lazy and somewhat anti-Town behavior to just meaninglessly park your vote there and you had ample time to pursue someone else. His explanations for who his second choice would be were also inadequate as I had mentioned before. But I let this all pass at first because I thought Pesco was crumbing that he was actually the Cop, especially being the first one to vote NF. He consistently keeps that stance by voting NF into Day 2. Of course since NF is actually the Cop, this destroys any notion that Pesco is another Cop, especially when this game should only have 2 Scum. And if you want to say Pesco is another Town power role, I'm not quite ready to believe that along with the way he's acted. Which leads back to the question of why he's bothering to pretend?

I could also understand why Pesco would vote so quickly for NF after his copclaim... if Scum had no roleblocker. They had to realize that they were expecting NF to be protected by a Doc no matter how scummy NF had been acting and NF would get at least one result out so a Scum Pesco would have taken the chance and keep the pressure on NF. Even if there was little chance of the lynch materializing, he probably wagered that NF was set to be mislynched in the future anyways and wanted to keep that stance. It's also possible that his scumbuddy would have caught on and tried to force the lynch to L-1 thus increasing pressure for the mislynch to occur Day 1. That is a much weaker case, but the fact that it did not happen does suggest the possibility the Scum buddy was already on the NF wagon. Meaning Affinity and Carthrat minus dead Donut have suddenly caught my attention.

Affinity has suddenly jumped up with the rather quick Roukan vote and the somewhat lame reason. You don't give much conviction for the vote; feels like a prod. I also don't see the need for such a thing right off the bat in Day 3 because Roukan is usually responsive AND his case on Pesco is decent. It feels too much like you're trying to set up something out of nothing. Also, if we're following your reason, if Roukan has been tunneling on Pesco, Pesco had been tunneling on NF and we know the latter was wrong. Why aren't you at least mentioning Pesco's case Affinity? I should also note that your comparison of Pesco versus Donut in #146 seems rather short and doesn't seem to give a rather definitive reason for how Donut is more deserving of his vote over Pesco. Feels like distancing.

As for Carthrat, I don't get that much of a presence from him who also was on NF's wagon early. He is less suspicious than Affinity though because given a choice he voted Pesco rather than Donut in Day 1 when both were close on the wagons. However, the suspicion does go back up a bit because of the reversal of opinion in Day 2 leading towards a NF mislynch before NF rolled over.

Zakeri is still a distinct possibility as per my Day 2 case.

Overall, my suspicions have been pegged as Pesco, then Affinity, then Zakeri and Carthrat being interchangable. If Pesco flips Scum, I think Roukan is Town (deja vu again). 2 Scum "probably" wouldn't be bussing each other on Day 1, especially if one of them is Pesco. The added attention on Pesco would just get him lynched sooner rather than later and that would hurt the remaining buddy. If Pesco flips Town, I'd have to reevaluate Roukan as well as everyone else of course.

I like Serp's vote there and for all the nit picky concerns I've had with them, none of them are standing out as extra serious. Sodium is a bit unusual, but the switch from Nietz to Pesco on Day 2 reflects decently well for him. His having to confirm the vote on Donut when he replaced in feels neutral to me due to the deadline and the reasoning wasn't that bad.

##Vote Pesco
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 05:56:32 AM
Town Kiro doesn't speculate like that. If you can out theories like that about me, then Rou should be town no matter how I flip. The fact that you intend to line him up as the lynch after me is why I'm quite sure of you being scum now.

##Vote Kiro
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 23, 2009, 06:09:45 AM
You shouldn't assume that Pesco. I already addressed this back in #160 where I had a notion that Scum Rou could just tunnel on Town Pesco, have Pesco mislynched and take relatively little flak for it. ScumRoukan could also tunnel on ScumPesco, but I think that's suicidal for a 2 person scum team when they don't know what roles Town have on Day 1. I just think you're a lot scummier than Roukan based on the above observations.

I'm also surprised you're not mentioning anything about my votes or whatever as you vote me. Looks like a simple OMGUS knee-jerk reaction to me.

Finally, got any opinion on Affinity? What about Affinity's vote on Roukan?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 06:33:19 AM
I think Rou is town in response to Affinity's vote.

I do consider the possibility of scum Rou, the result is that he deserves to win if that is the case. Scum Rou is spineless, he wouldn't take the risk of getting tangled with me. He hasn't been as active as we might expect, but those are circumstances outside of the game.

As it stands, I don't feel the need to consider Zak or Affinity when Kiro and Sodium are bigger fish in my eyes.

Either way, I'm fine with being lynched today since it's not LyLo.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 23, 2009, 07:02:13 AM
Quote
As it stands, I don't feel the need to consider Zak or Affinity when Kiro and Sodium are bigger fish in my eyes.

Aren't you suppose to consider everyone that's playing before figuring out who the "Big Fish" are? You sound more like you're fishing around than hunting.

Quote
I'm always wary of Kiro when he doesn't die within the first few nights. It's not a sound accusation, so I won't be voting him for this.
Quote
Town Kiro doesn't speculate like that.
Pesco: "I'm not voting based on Meta."
Pesco: "META! *vote*"

What exactly are you calling Kiro out on again? Your vote seems to be based entirely on the point that Kiro is suggesting that Roukanken Might be scum  if you flip town. This is basically the kind of accusation that can only be used on day one when someone is discussing who they want to target if the day one bandwagon flips scum or not. At least explain why you think this is scummy.

Quote
I'm fine with being lynched today since it's not LyLo.
"...because, you know, I'm a townie, and since it's not lylo or anything, lynching a townie is okay."
I generally don't like this talk at this point in the game. It reads like scum trying too hard to prove they're town. We're at the point now where townies should stop thinking like Martyr and just go after who they think is scummy.

I'd like to see Pesco put a lot more effort into his vote. I'd also like Affinity to do so as well. Affinity's vote largely reads as an inactivity prod on someone who's still on vacation. Roukanken may be tunneling Pesco, but that was way back on day one. The vote's only saving grace is defeated by the fact that Roukanken hasn't gotten a chance.

I'll need to take a thorought look when I'm not busy, but I think Pesco is most deserving of the lynch right now, especially due to Neitz's flip and Pesco's latest reaction to Kiro.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 23, 2009, 08:22:08 AM
See above posters for the now-painfully obvious way in which n1 probably actually played out, it's my conclusion as well.

Pesco- Given that Rou vanished for half the game, and spent most of the other half of it bulldogging you, I struggle to see how he is somehow totally clear, let alone 'deserves to win' if he's scum. This is so out of left field. Part of my sekrit undisclosed suspicions were that pesco was a doc trying not to get NKd with all the shenanigans; they've pretty much evaporated, and he's looking much worse than before. Obviously with NF flipping cop his actions early d2 weren't happy either.

Rou- Is high up on my list of suspicious characters as well. Blowing in out of nowhere and deriding an NF lynch towards the end in favour of.. just about anything else... is pretty damn pro-scum. According to the terms, if NF wasn't lynched, I believe scum would've gotten two NKs in a row along with NF's modkill, which would leave us in a pretty bad spot even if pesco was scum (and if he wasn't, that'd leave 6 living players and no dead scum, i.e. probably LYLO, eww.)

##Vote: Roukanken since I badly want an explanation of his actions towards the end of yesterday; arguing for a non-NF lynch during such a late stage seems extraordinarily counterproductive.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 23, 2009, 09:21:54 AM
@Kiro:

Yes, it was a prod, since I wanted to ascertain his opinions on people other than pesco.  It's just that he made few posts yesterday with opinions that I don't feel flowed well, and I think he had been quite brief in his analysis of anyone other than pesco.  And of course, I don't like your overreaction to something so minor because no matter how decent your case is against someone, you still do have to give your opinions on others; this I think is lacking especially in D2. 

The talk about roles and the questioning of Carthrat were all linked to pesco in some way; at the very least, I do think that I am entitled to prod him for that.  As for pesco, he argued his position to hell through very many queries, enough for me to form an opinion, really, which is slightly scummy.  There were no questions I wanted to add that weren't already asked.

I also do not like your analysis of scumminess and such.  What you have failed to do is to evaluate the reasons behind the bandwagons as opposed to just the flips of the people lynched themselves.  For example, when you said things about pesco, it was the tunneling that was wrong, as opposed to the target of that tunnel; the case on NF was more than solid and thus one shouldn't be attacking people for voting him (you subscribed with that point of view too).  Furthermore, people shouldn't be praised just because they did not vote for donut on D1, as it was reasonable to assume that he was going to be lynched anyway.  In short, it's not merely the votes, but also the reasons, and for your disregard of the latter, your brand of scumhunting seems remarkably contrived.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 23, 2009, 09:29:09 AM
@Zakeri:

Roukanken had a chance since he posted.  I'm not blaming him for going to England, I'm blaming him for focusing on pesco in his already existing posts and disregarding quite a lot of other things.  Thus, I would like to hear his thoughts on these other things.

@pesco:

I see the reasoning behind your vote, but it was mostly not explained... which is disturbing.  Please elaborate,
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:56:37 AM
Post got eaten by crappy internets at campus.

Quote
Pesco: "I'm not voting based on Meta."
Pesco: "META! *vote*"

What exactly are you calling Kiro out on again? Your vote seems to be based entirely on the point that Kiro is suggesting that Roukanken Might be scum  if you flip town. This is basically the kind of accusation that can only be used on day one when someone is discussing who they want to target if the day one bandwagon flips scum or not. At least explain why you think this is scummy.

Those happen to be different points of meta.

I think you've answered it yourself. Why is Kiro lining up lynches on Day 3 when we don't have leeway to be wrong when it could have been resolved on Day 1.

Quote
I'll need to take a thorought look when I'm not busy, but I think Pesco is most deserving of the lynch right now, especially due to Neitz's flip and Pesco's latest reaction to Kiro.

I'm not getting lynched unless you actually vote me you know. What does Serp think of this reluctance?

Quote
Pesco- Given that Rou vanished for half the game, and spent most of the other half of it bulldogging you, I struggle to see how he is somehow totally clear, let alone 'deserves to win' if he's scum. This is so out of left field.

I bank on scumRou being a coward. There will always be people that think one or the other must be scum or someone might just choose my side over his eventually, those are the risks for scumRou to face when arguing with me. As town, those concerns are minor and not necessarilly harmful to his win condition. If scumRou has the balls to play like this, then he's bested me and I concede. In short, I think he's not badass enough to do it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 23, 2009, 12:34:36 PM
Alright, after another re-read, I'm having a hard time seeing Zakeri and Pesco as our scumpair.  Zakeri was hard on Pesco from the start, then started to swing pro-Pesco, and now has gone back to anti-Pesco.  It's explainable as Zakeri distancing himself from a mislynch, but it's neither bussing nor unjustified support.  Both are scummy on their own merits, but either they've done really well to distance themselves from each other, or we'll need to look outside them for the scumbuddy.

Kiro makes a good case for a Pesco-Affinity pair.  I'm seeing Pesco-Carthrat as much less likely due to Carthrat placing what could have ended up as a momentum-swinging vote against Pesco on page 6.  I'm starting to think that half the value in a Pesco lynch would be the way it would put the so many actions in a context where we can fully analyze them.  Now that I'm looking for a pair, it seems like odd connections are popping up all over the place.  Ultimately, we have to start with individual scumminess and then work from there.

Onto responses and questions:

Quote from: Pesco
What does Serp think of this reluctance?

I was hoping for something more decisive and shocking, honestly. :V  I'm frustrated by Zakeri's flightiness in voting.  I just realized we never really got an explanation for his suspicion out of nowhere against me.  Zakeri's actions have been looking more like strategic voting than scumhunting, which is why I'm still wary of him.

Quote from: Carthrat
Part of my sekrit undisclosed suspicions were that pesco was a doc trying not to get NKd with all the shenanigans; they've pretty much evaporated, and he's looking much worse than before. Obviously with NF flipping cop his actions early d2 weren't happy either.

Isn't it kind of hypocritical to say that when you explicitly said you followed Pesco's reasoning here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43758#msg43758)?  I was feeling the same way, despite my lack of vote, so I don't hold it against either of you, but I do hold it against you if you suddenly consider something you yourself did a scumtell.

Affinity, if your vote on Roukanken is just a prod, then who are you actually leaning towards lynching?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 23, 2009, 01:12:34 PM
##Unvote, ##Vote: Pesco. Everything he's said today is based entirely on meta, and while Rou hasn't even had to reply yet (ugh) I'm compelled to switch. The point he has against Kiro is pretty trivial and just doesn't seem to have any weight behind it. Another thing- I can't see how asking Sodium his opinion on Dorian's play is actually going to be useful.

No matter what his alignment, he is obviously going to try and spin it in the best way possible. Don't dismiss what Dorian says, perhaps, but judge it on it's own merits- there's no point asking Sodium what he thinks of it.

Serp: It's a relatively minor point against him and has more to do with his style of posting (abrupt; short; lacking details and explanations; check out his initial posts against NF in day 2. They mostly amount to 'you're scummy, die'.) more than wanting the guy lynched in and of itself.

The hypocrisy thing is kinda stupid, though; that lynch was wrong and while I know I was in error, I can't just go 'oh well I voted like this so it's okay for everyone else to' without considering it a bit further.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 02:29:40 PM
Whoa, Pesco, what's with the OMGUS meta vote on Kiro?

Quote from: Pesco
I'd ask Sodium now to explain Dorian's posts in his own words.
Well, let's see...
Confirm post, etc.

73-Uh, I don't even know. Gives some random information that everyone probably knew, and then answers a question meant for Pesco. I'm guessing he answered it because he didn't know that you usually don't answer questions not meant for yourself in mafia.

83-Uh, =V. Accepts NF's reasoning for his vote on Donut, which I'd say is pretty bad. Then points out his own answer, and says it was more like him, which means he's clueless. >_> Yeah, I just think this is the action of a clueless new player.

120-Gives points against NF, including pointing out something wrong with NF's case. However, he then says "TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM", which seems like something a new player would say. States suspicion of Donut & Pesco. He's reasoning is alright, and then he votes Donut for jumping onto "that", "that" being a small part of a post NF made. I think he was saying that he thought Donut was trying to get people off of him by voting NF, because Donut voted NF on something he thought was weak.

149-Answers Roukan with a post from Affinity. He admits he should do it himself, but seeing from his previous posts, he probably felt that Affinity's answer was clearer.

And those are all of his posts. =V Overall, all his actions seem like clueness newbie with Wrathie mixed in, which then ended up in me replacing him.

So, anyways, picking up from yesterday, and with the all new OMGUS Meta vote from Pesco...
##Vote:Pesco

Also, vote count?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 02:42:20 PM
You see here, I'm going to get lynched for what you call scummy play. My claim means nothing to sway the opinion. So what if I pushed for NF to be lynched? He played scummy, so he deserves to be lynched. This same response will come up after I flip.

It's still a valid enquiry to find out why Dorian would say the things he did, spoken from Sodium's perspective of his role. Why does Carthrat care how Sodium responds?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 02:44:08 PM
Post more when I get home.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 04:13:57 PM
Wow. I come back from England, having explicitly said that I've have trouble getting a connection and wouldn't be able to take a good look at the thread, and I find myself being attacked for not giving a full enough opinion. >_>

Well, now that I'm back, I'm intending to play catchup for as much of Days 2 and 3 as I can. Expect a WoT ASAP - I'm still highly suspicious of Pesco, but I don't want to press it until I get a votecount.

*starts reading up*
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 04:15:34 PM
I'm disappointed that I didn't come home to a hammer. Y'all suck.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 04:25:59 PM
120-Gives points against NF, including pointing out something wrong with NF's case. However, he then says "TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM", which seems like something a new player would say. States suspicion of Donut & Pesco. He's reasoning is alright, and then he votes Donut for jumping onto "that", "that" being a small part of a post NF made. I think he was saying that he thought Donut was trying to get people off of him by voting NF, because Donut voted NF on something he thought was weak.

Why was his reasoning alright? You obviously endorsed it the way things turned out.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 04:36:16 PM
His reasoning is that you and Donut had an extremely quick "argument", and then you both voted Kiro. That's why he found you and Donut suspicious. The reason I thought it was alright was because one could possibly see a connection between you two because of that, at the time he posted.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 04:52:17 PM
That doesn't explain much. The connection was possible because of what? Which assumptions were made and what uncertainties were ruled out?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 05:14:15 PM
Archive trawling fun.

I'm not the only one that thinks Rou could do no evil (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=7.msg3478#msg3478)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 05:24:25 PM
Okay, I'm gonna give my analysis player-by-player:

Pesco - in all honesty, I think I've already said all I have to here. His ominous 'not vanilla' claim, his refusal to claim further even at hammer, his starting the wagon on the claimed cop - I have no complaints whatsoever about his lynch, but I admit there are other players to consider so I'm gonna get to work.

Kiro - What now? I practically forgot you were playing, to be honest.
Posts very little on D1, agreeing that NF is worth lynching despite his claim but doesn't actually throw down a vote.
Gives this comment to me:
Quote
I don't see why there's a problem with that and it frames your bias into thinking they're acting in concert when they were actually voting me for different reasons. I get that Pesco not making a clear explanation of things is not good, but looking at the situation as a whole, I don't think it's that worthy for you clinging to it all the way to now.
The point is that it seems somewhat convenient that they both switched onto you simultaneously. Obviously the point doesn't hold since Donut flipped Town, but it made sense to me at the time. >_>

Quote
If you'll notice, I'm not voting you (Donut) because your posts are short.
I'm not getting this. You thought he was Town because he made short arguments in Pesco's defense rather than long, overdrawn ones?

On D2, pulls out a case on Zakeri for stepping back from the Pesco lynch. Then flips BACK onto NF after he storms off, claiming it'd only help scum. I stand by my earlier belief that Scum!NF would have nothing to gain from this course of action.

Gets mad because no-one is defending NF. I guess I don't count given that I only managed to post three times that day.
But what does this complaint achieve? If he thinks that NF needs defending why doesn't he do it himself? >_>

Day 3, switches targets AGAIN over to Pesco, which is strange considering previously he thought I was arguing a pretty fruitless point.

In general, Kiro seems to be asking a lot of questions but he doesn't ever seem to settle on a single concrete point, which is irritating. Still, seen nothing from him that appears outright scummy (unless you count Pesco's accusation of 'he's still alive' >_>).

Carthrat - D1 vote on Zakeri seems very forced, and runs off the idea that you only get one post in RVS. Jumps on NF and pursues him until the copclaim, then moves to Pesco. Eventually hammers Donut since the Pesco wagon wasn't moving, so he's more or less clear of that.
Then on D2 has exactly the OPPOSITE opinion of NF, voting him to start and holding it all the way. I find it interesting that now he gives more or less no arguments against Pesco despite his earlier suspicion of him.
He was the first to suggest letting the timer run out on NF, and later argued that the copclaim meant nothing since claims could easily be fake. This from the guy who earlier reprimanded Zak for trying to vote NF. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43050#msg43050)
On D3, initially skips over Pesco AGAIN and instead turns on me for tunneling him and not liking the NF modkill. So I'm at fault for not being okay with sitting around and letting a player who I think is town get modkilled and losing us a day? >_>
Then FINALLY gets back to Pesco for meta abuse and insisting that I'm Town despite attacking him all game.

All in all, Carth seemed to try very hard to avoid the Pesco lynch from D2 onward, interesting considering how much he supported it D1. Getting massive scumpair vibes, and even without that his flip-flop opinion on NF feels really scummy to me.

Serp - Jumps on Donut early on for the quote that cleared him to Pesco, which I can more or less understand. Then jumps on Dorian G which is in many ways a BAD sign to me. He compares Dorian to Mr_Alert, but IIRC ALert was Town, so yeah. :/

Doesn't really validate his case on Dorian far beyond 'he isn't posting, and if he's Town he'll be a liability lategame'. I'm used to Serp pulling out more detailed arguments, and I don't remember him settling for easy targets like Dorian.
Maintains his beliefs on Dorian into D2, then jumps onto NF for the claim/target declaration. Unvotes at L-1 out of fear of quicklynch, and never puts his vote back.
D3, moves onto Pesco and calls out Carth for contradicting himself over him.

Personally I'm very interested by his apparent lack of an opinion in terms of Sodium, when he explicitly said he'd  be watching out for him after Dorian dropped. A very grey area for me.

More to come, but I didn't realise exactly how much I had to catch up on. Plus the lack of a mouse on my  (and probably a tl;dr to help people out)new laptop is making this kinda difficult. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 05:25:52 PM
EBWOP: More to come (and probably a tl;dr to help people out), but I didn't realise exactly how much I had to catch up on. Plus the lack of a mouse on my new laptop is making this kinda difficult. >_>
aaaaaaaaaaaagh I hate this laptop sometimes
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 23, 2009, 05:27:51 PM
Quickie Day 3 Votecount:
13:13 < Kilgamyon> Throw mountains on Beatrice, for example, and she'd still be ugly as sin.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 05:29:59 PM
EBWOP: More to come (and probably a tl;dr to help people out), but I didn't realise exactly how much I had to catch up on. Plus the lack of a mouse on my new laptop is making this kinda difficult. >_>
aaaaaaaaaaaagh I hate this laptop sometimes

You see why I don't like making big posts by phone.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 05:36:34 PM
Now you're just assuming that I know exactly what Dorian was thinking of when he typed that. But anyways, he most likely assumed Donut was scum, seeing as he voted Donut in the same post, and then noticed that you and Donut had voted Kiro extremely close to each other for a reason that he failed to see, as stated in his post. Thus, he thought that you and Donut were a scumpair because after an extremely short talk, you both voted Kiro out of the blue, at least, that's what he saw.

He did rule out a lot of things though, like it was a coincidence, or that you are both town, or that you two are actually aliens here to conquer earth by winning at forum mafia.

Considering his point of view, and how he was playing, I thought his thoughts were reasonable. I never said I agreed, but I just thought that it was acceptable.

...How is this relevant again?

Ninja Roukan
Quote
He compares Dorian to Mr_Alert, but IIRC ALert was Town, so yeah. :/
You're thinking about that game where I replaced him, right? If so, he was scum. I'd know because I replaced Mr.Alert. >_>

Nice Kilga quote, Alice.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 05:41:06 PM
Why was Dorian's reasoning alright TO YOU.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 06:32:37 PM
Why was Dorian's reasoning alright TO YOU.
Holy crap, do I have to say this again? TAKING INTO ACCOUNT HOW HE WAS PLAYING(NEWBIE, QUIET, DOESN'T KNOW THE OTHER PLAYERS WELL), AND WHAT HE SAID HE SAW("DONUT AND PESCO WENT FROM FIGHTING TO VOTING THE SAME PERSON FOR NO REASON"), I FELT THAT IT WAS ALRIGHT FOR HIM TO COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT HE CAME TO. AND THAT WASN'T EVEN THE FOCUS OF POST 120.

And once again, how is this relevant?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
I'll let the others judge for themselves if you've actually answered the question properly.

Why it's relevant is because scumDorian and scumSodium are going to have a hard time rationalising why and what their role did. It's a lot easier when you're a real vanilla townie.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 06:48:52 PM
Zak - Strange unvote/revote on Pesco, but I'm reading it as RVS. Then REALLY votes Pesco for throwing around insults left, right and centre. By next post has switched to NF and is now reprimanding me for pushing the Pesco case. Uh...what?
Despite his earlier claims that Donut is just rusty he switches to him over the other lynches in late D1. His reasoning for clearing Pesco is 'scum Pesco would have given up by now', which makes me very sad.
Fearmongering questions to Donut, Carth and Serp which seem intended to instill doubt rather than test faith. Don't see what they'd achieve, since scum typically know better than to go for a case they can't argue legitimately.
D2, begins engaging in meta reading. Suspects that the setup is F11, but then has no complaint with voting the copclaim. Contradiction, anyone?
Engages in Donut bandwagon analysis which achieves absolutely nothing.
Then attempts to analyse Pesco's crumbs, saying absolutely nothing that anyone couldn't figure out from the first read of it.
On D3, back to attacking Pesco for his meta vote on Kiro. Makes sense to me, to be honest.
But in most cases, he seems to be trying to look like he's contributing when really he's saying nothing useful. Whether that's because he's trying to waffle or he just can't think of anything useful to say is open for debate, but I'm very iffy about him.

Affinity - Immediate press on NF for not liking weak reasoning, and not putting votes behind his suspicions. Comments that Pesco isn't responding to his accusations.
Pushes NF harder on this point in later posts, then brings out the point on clearing Serp.
After the copclaim comes out, though, switches to Donut, mentioning him for the first time in his voting post. This is despite having questioned Pesco several times over his previous posts.
Clears Dorian for raising an original point against Donut (contradiction on his opinion on effort), meaning he 'did more hunting than NF ever did'. Doesn't make any comments about his lurkiness, though, or indeed any of the other iffy statements Dorian made (NF getting a pass for being too suspicious for example). Finally, I can't actually make out the point that DOrian supposedly made in his own post.
Attacks NF on D2, but doesn't vote based on the CC and instead aims for Zakeri for retreating too hastily from the Donut flip. Admits later he will vote when Zak responds, but by D3 seems to have disregarded his case altogether, going for me instead for tunnelling Pesco. Why didn't he move his vote to Zakeri even after he got his response?

I want to see how Affinity responds to this WoT before I give a more precise opinion of him, but I'll note on D1 he jumped from NF to Donut surprisingly hastily, and he heralded Dorian's innocence a littler too fiercely for my liking.

Finally, Dorian/Potassium Benzoate - Dorian really didn't have a clue what the hell he was doing here. Too Townie fallacy in reverse, not responding to attacks on himself, generally being kinda useless...feels quite like a new guy, but now we have Sodium Oxide to consider too.
In his first post, Ferryl Oxide accuses NF of being a suspicious confirmed Townie (>________>), IIoAs Donut and puts out a pointless PesRou conspiracy theory. Let me quote this for emphasis:
Quote
Roukan and Pesco:For some reason, I have a theory that they're pretending to argue(as usual) in order to distract town.
'As usual'? Did Magnesium even consider this before he posted it?
Starts D2 with a semi-clear of Pesco through the logic of 'You're always scummy'. Excuse me while I dip my head in some cement.
Then votes Nietz for being unoriginal throughout D1, and after ONE POINT takes it back and goes back to Pesco.
Pulls out a WoT on Zakeri which is massively IIoA and suddenly wants to vote him for moving onto Donut. His point on Zak clearing Pesco feels notably iffy:
Quote
Also, Zak says Pesco is good for stating his thought process, although I find that this is ironic. Zakeri(well, everyone pretty much) disliked NF's "effort=clear", and yet he himself was doing the same with Pesco, and how he liked Pesco was explaining his thought process.
No, these are not the same thing. Zak is saying here 'you've explained your reasoning thoroughly, so I trust you'. NF said 'you used a lot of words, so I trust you'. No-where near the same.
He seems very, very reluctant to comment on Dorian's play.
On Day 3, Caesium Hydroxide drops Zakeri as well and moves back to Pesco.
I will admit I was thinking of a different game in terms of alert, though - I was thinking of the F/SN round where he was Rider.

All in all, Plutonium Permanganate is more scummy than Dorian was. He refuses to comment on the latter's play, switches cases with reckless abandon and has IIoA thrown all over the shop.

TL;DR, YOU CAN START READING NOW

I will agree that I was far too focused on my Pesco case yesterday, but I hope this post is enough proof that given enough time I'd have looked at other people.
Currently I still have a good deal of suspicion of him, but other candidates that are acting notably scummy were more or less ignored. Carthrat was too insistent on NF being scum despite the copclaim, and in general Professor Utonium (I'm running out of elements here) is all over the place - refusing to give HIS OWN OPINION on Dorian's posts, tons of IIoA, jumping between cases like a frog across lilypads...(I'm so clever.)
My opinions on other players are probably dependent on later flips: Kiro needs to start making solid cases rather than jumping all over the shop. Serp seems alright but has pretty much no opinion on Phlebotinum despite his suspicions of Dorian. Affinity preached Dorian's innocence a little too hard, which'll reflect badly on him if Platinum flips scum. Zak needs to start producing genuine analysis and stop being a hypocrite ('I think this game is F11, but I don't mind voting the sole copclaim!'), but a lot of what he says seems more misguided rather than scummy.

In conclusion, my current suspects for scum are Pesco, Unobtanium and Carthrat in that order. Since we still don't actually have a votecount (>_>) I'm gonna make the move that avoids a quicklynch.

##Vote: EX Na2O2
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 23, 2009, 07:14:19 PM
Pesco: I asked what you thought of Affinity and you answered that Rou looks Town to you after Affinity voted him. You don't explain why and furthermore, you're deflecting my original question. Elaborate on why you think Rou is Town due to the above and give me your opinion on Affinity. Also, you need to answer Affinity's #322.

Affinity: Your points on Roukan are fine, but I just find it odd that you're making the effort to prod him by voting. I respect the power of votes to dictate conversation. The fact that you vote Roukan and make no mention of Pesco who by now is reasonably suspicious is what's putting you on my scumdar now. In regards to the tunneling comparison, the cases on BOTH NF and Pesco have been "solid" or at least worth looking into. If one shouldn't be "attacking people for voting him (Nuclear Fusion)," why does it look like you're attacking Rou for voting Pesco?

Furthermore, people shouldn't be praised just because they did not vote for donut on D1, as it was reasonable to assume that he was going to be lynched anyway.

I don't know where you think I mentioned something like the above. Care to explain? And also as Serp mentioned, who do you think is scum now?

I've noted Carthrat's initial vote for Rou, then the switch to Pesco. Also noticed Zakeri's flightiness as Serp has mentioned. However, they're not standing out to me more than Pesco and Affinity at this time.

In response to Rou: "I'm not voting Donut because his posts are short," but I was voting Donut because he actively made a defense for someone else as well as piggybacking onto the Dorian vote. That's the point I wanted to make with him because he was distraught he can't scumhunt because he doesn't type as much as other players. I also did not get mad specifically because nobody was defending NF. That was just a general observation I made about everyone else. More specifically, I was mad/frustrated that NF was going to get modkilled and my impression was that there was going to be less substantive evidence of bandwagon analysis because he wasn't lynched per say. Once it seemed apparent he was just going to disappear, people just let it be and it was a wait and see scenario as the timer wound down.

I'm not finding Pesco's questioning of Sodium useful. Interpretations on what Dorian meant are not objectively fair to analyze. Not sure where you're trying to go with this when your vote happens to be on me right now.

Cut by Rou:

Will need to think about your resulting cases some more. Lunch break for me soon and not enough time to do the necessary re-reads to have a better opinion on Rou. A lot of it just looks like summarizing, but I'll have to get to it later.

Also, my unofficial votecount has Pesco at 4 votes (L-1), Roukan at 1 vote, Kiro at 1 vote and Sodium at 1 vote. Zakeri is not voting atm.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 07:37:36 PM
In response to Rou: "I'm not voting Donut because his posts are short," but I was voting Donut because he actively made a defense for someone else as well as piggybacking onto the Dorian vote. That's the point I wanted to make with him because he was distraught he can't scumhunt because he doesn't type as much as other players.
I'll give you this point. For some reason I thought you weren't voting Donut at that point in time, which is why that point stood out. >_>

Quote
I also did not get mad specifically because nobody was defending NF. That was just a general observation I made about everyone else. More specifically, I was mad/frustrated that NF was going to get modkilled and my impression was that there was going to be less substantive evidence of bandwagon analysis because he wasn't lynched per say. Once it seemed apparent he was just going to disappear, people just let it be and it was a wait and see scenario as the timer wound down.
To be fair, defending him would be relatively pointless if the odds of him returning were nil, except for possibly gaining some Townie cred. And even then scum could easily defend the Townie if they're going to get modkilled anyway, so at best any analysis would be a WIFOM.

Quote
Also, my unofficial votecount has Pesco at 4 votes (L-1)
So, can we get a fullclaim now?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 23, 2009, 08:21:16 PM
Non Si possono cancellare gli errori commessi ma,
Nel tempo in continuo movimento, un giorno verr? la stagione per porvi rimedio.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZbPfDmw6hk&feature=related)

Day 3 Votecount - 2 days 7 hours remaining
Pesco (4) - Serpentarius, Kiro, EX Na_2SO_4, Carthrat
Roukanken (1) - Affinity, Carthrat
Kiro (1) - Pesco
EX Na_2SO_4 (1) - Roukanken

Not Voting: Zakeri

Pesco47 is at L-1!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:11:32 PM
Role PM says Townie Aspirin Addict. Which is clearly not Vanilla Townie.

Can I self hammer yet?

If not, then
##Unvote
##Vote NaI-(PEsCO4)7-IN-T2He-H2O2Le


And before I forget, only scum would have known the modkill would end the day.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:24:30 PM

Day 3 Votecount - 2 days 7 hours remaining
Pesco (4) - Serpentarius, Kiro, EX Na_2SO_4, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity, Carthrat
Kiro (1) - Pesco
EX Na_2SO_4 (1) - Roukanken


I'm awesome like that ;D
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 09:33:39 PM
Does the Role PM explain exactly HOW Townie Aspirin Addict is different from Vanilla Townie? >_>

Also, I'm not sure who Pesco just voted - himself or Sodium. :/
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:36:16 PM
Well like I said in my earlier posts, I have aspirins which I can pop at night to deal with headaches. Go bother Alice for the exact Role PM after my flip.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 09:46:26 PM
So you did self-hammer. >_>

*shuts up*
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:51:19 PM
You fail at reading.

Can I self hammer yet?

If not, then
##Unvote
##Vote NaI-(PEsCO4)7-IN-T2He-H2O2Le


Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 09:57:31 PM
O...K.

There's still 48 hours left in the day, so I have no intention of hammering any time soon.

Still mad at Pesco refusing to clear up his role PM at L-1 despite being asked to, but he's been doing that all game so it's hardly something new. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 09:58:54 PM
Getting me modkilled isn't very nice of you. Claiming to be VT when the role PM clearly says otherwise would be lying. And liars should die.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 10:02:13 PM
The "as usual" was supposed to refer to how you guys always attack each other, not the "pretend to attack each other". I wrote that without much time as I was trying to get a post in before I had to go(about an hour before the day ended). And I told you it was useless. It was just some hilarious gut feeling I felt like sharing. I even said "ignore this if you feel like it".

Just because I haven't said anything about Zak doesn't mean I dropped it. Also, Pesco never explained his thought process clearly at all. You were the one trying to beat it out of him. And I was voting Pesco most of Day 2, and finished Day 2 with my vote on Pesco. Pesco then OMGUS'd Kiro, while using meta. Why wouldn't I stick my vote onto Pesco?

Also, Dorian's posts were shit. There, happy? I was trying to give reasons to why they were shit(while not using that word), such as him being a newbie, and the reasons that he posted, but the posts were completely useless(WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY) and/or vague("that", what the fuck is "that"?) and/or BAD(TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM). If this isn't what you're looking for, PLEASE ::), tell me what you are looking for. Either way, I get the short end of the stick here.

Pesco, I like how you still haven't answered my question. Your "answer" was not an answer to my question. Cool role claim btw. Serious. I'm going to unvote for various reasons right now, one of which is the fact that you're planning to hammer yourself(which is bad), another is that I actually believe that roleclaim(for various reasons). I'll vote someone later after some re-reading.

##Unvote

...I have a feeling that doing this will result in something bad for me, but whatever.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 10:06:46 PM
Getting me modkilled isn't very nice of you.
Forgive me for trying to come up with SOME sort of reasoning for why you'd vote yourself, the most obvious one being 'scum!Pesco wants to end the day early to cut off discussion'.
Quote
Claiming to be VT when the role PM clearly says otherwise would be lying.
If you're actually claiming to not be vanilla based on FLAVOUR, I will die inside. Does taking aspirin actually do anything in-game outside of flavour?

Still no explanation for why you L-1'd yourself? >_>

Quote from: EX R2D2
Pesco, I like how you still haven't answered my question. Your "answer" was not an answer to my question. Cool role claim btw. Serious. I'm going to unvote for various reasons right now, one of which is the fact that you're planning to hammer yourself(which is bad), another is that I actually believe that roleclaim(for various reasons).
- You accuse him and simultaneously UNVOTE him?
- Your two reasons for unvoting him - self-hammering and BELIEVING THE CLAIM HE'S BEEN MAKING SINCE D1 - are painfully contradictory. Mind expanding?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 10:06:55 PM
How lame. If I was going to self hammer, I would have done so long ago.

Pesco, I like how you still haven't answered my question. Your "answer" was not an answer to my question. Cool role claim btw. Serious. I'm going to unvote for various reasons right now, one of which is the fact that you're planning to hammer yourself(which is bad), another is that I actually believe that roleclaim(for various reasons). I'll vote someone later after some re-reading.

Of course you like it, it gives you reason to revote me later. Since you believe my claim, tell everyone why.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 10:07:22 PM
By which I mean why do you only believe it NOW?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 10:08:18 PM
I didn't L-1 myself. Carthrat is voting me, but Alice was playing with dolls didn't notice. I've asked Edible to come fix it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Edible on July 23, 2009, 10:12:28 PM
Vote Count: "Alice, I am disappoint" edition

Day 3 Votecount - 2 days and some other time remaining
Pesco (3) - Serpentarius, Kiro, Carthrat
EX Na_2SO_4 (2) - Roukanken, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity

Does that look about right?

That would be correct ~Alice
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 10:31:17 PM
*sigh*
All the reasons why I unvoted:
1.I would have to roleclaim for this
2.You're going to kill yourself, no good, etc.
3.I would have to roleclaim for this
4.The Day still has 2 days in it. Ties in with "You're going to kill yourself"
5.Doubt you'd make up something like that
6.A thought I have related to roles in general

Reason why I believe his role now:
1. #1,3,5 in above reasons + below
2. He stopped breadcrumbing and finally said the role, which lets me, you know, see it PROPERLY

I swore I hit the ENTER key in between writing one part of that paragraph, and the other part. Yeah, they're supposed to be like this:
Quote
Pesco, I like how you still haven't answered my question. Your "answer" was not an answer to my question.

Cool role claim btw. Serious. I'm going to unvote for various reasons right now, one of which is the fact that you're planning to hammer yourself(which is bad), another is that I actually believe that roleclaim(for various reasons). I'll vote someone later after some re-reading.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 10:39:09 PM
That seems pretty shitty for the amount of time you spent writing the post.

Reason number 1 for believing the claim equates to 'I don't have a solid reason to and I'm going to be ambiguous about it'

With so many reasons to unvote me, why even vote me in the first place? What about my claim now has been any different in wording or mechanics from what I've said on day 1 and 2?

Explain your number 4 reason for the unvote.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 10:44:09 PM
1.I would have to roleclaim for this
Then why the hell did you mention it in the first place?

Quote
2.You're going to kill yourself, no good, etc.
Isn't it specifically said that there's no role that benefits from death? If you think Pesco is scum this shouldn't be a problem for you.

Quote
3.I would have to roleclaim for this
This looks familiar.

Quote
4.The Day still has 2 days in it. Ties in with "You're going to kill yourself"
This point alone would have been enough, you know. Why'd you bring in the whole role meta thing?

Quote
5.Doubt you'd make up something like that
>_________>

Quote
6.A thought I have related to roles in general
Well since you've started, you may as well finish.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 23, 2009, 10:47:47 PM
Nevermind the last bit about explaining 4. It's late and I need my aspirins :P.

Why was 'Cool' bolded? I don't get it at all. Seems like some kind of obscure signaling you trying to do there.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 23, 2009, 11:09:35 PM
You were going to kill yourself. There are 2 days left in Day 3. You would end Day 3 two days before it was over. Self explanatory? The day would end early, and with barely any posts from people not named Pesco or Roukanken.

You weren't being a jerkass over the claim this time.

If you want me to claim(not that you would believe it), I will.

I was going to say "Cool Story Bro" in bold(along with a whole different paragraph), but then thought that this was not time for that. I left the Cool, and the bold tags with it unfortunately. Derp

So anyways, Roukan wants me to finish #6. My theory of this game is that there are a bunch of roles that have various useless abilities that they can do, such as Pesco's Asprin thing. There's an obvious reason I think this, but I'm not saying it outright, and I didn't think of this until Day 2.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 23, 2009, 11:31:10 PM
and I didn't think of this until Day 2.
So why didn't you think about his aspirin claim as one of these until just there? He'd been making the claim for some time.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 24, 2009, 12:35:06 AM
It's never good for anyone to vote themselves.

Well, I thought of it mid Day 2 if you want to be specific
There are a couple of reasons:
1. I wasn't sure, as Pesco seemed to...be an ass about the roleclaim, which made me doubt it
2. He actually said the name of the role this time, which is more important then you think
3. I'm an idiot who ends up hesitating to do things

I think I've posted way too many number lists

You still want the specifics of my role? I mean, you probably know the general thing about it now, but yeah.

I'll probably have a post later, as I'm tired right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 24, 2009, 01:21:48 AM
Quote from: Roukanken
Personally I'm very interested by his apparent lack of an opinion in terms of Sodium, when he explicitly said he'd  be watching out for him after Dorian dropped. A very grey area for me.

I have been keeping my eye on Sodium, but I haven't had much to say, since he's looked pretty much squeaky clean to me.  I don't like saying that sort of thing explicitly, 'cause I don't like giving scum a laundry list, especially this late in the game.  That said, he sure has produced some stuff to chew on once pushed.

Sodium, there's really nothing different to consider after getting an explicit role name out of Pesco.  If you've got one of these flavor roles too, it should have been obvious as soon as Pesco related the aspirin to his roleclaim that he was trying to look like he had a wonky flavor role like that.  The thing is, I don't see those roles just being handed out to townies, 'cause that'd encourage massclaim as soon as someone put two and two together.  "Town Aspirin Addict" is no less likely a role than "Scum Aspirin Addict," and Pesco's breadcrumbing of his role way before it even came up looks to me like he was trying to score points with townies who were aware of the presence of flavor roles like that.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 24, 2009, 02:38:54 AM
Pesco's attempt at a self-hammer does not count, as his vote is currently sitting on our good friend Hydrogen Sulfide. Day 3 is still in effect. Also getting back to this shitstorm after my first ever violin lesson was not fun at all. Good christ.

Edit: and yes, you may self-hammer. Doing so would be a huge Dick Move though and would likely have people hate you more than Nucleaire Fusion, and he was the cop who just suicided. So don't do that. Yukari Arc-Welding Yakumo.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 24, 2009, 04:09:05 AM
Okay, I've tried to make a post, but I can't. I'll try again in the morning(8-10 hours later), and hopefully there will be new posts by people not named Pesco or Roukanken. In regards to Serp though, no one is completely clean;look at Roukan's post. He got points against everyone.

Oh, and Alice...LEARN TO PLAY A TOUHOU SONG WITH THE VIOLIN. =3
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 24, 2009, 04:58:11 AM
Pesco has not answered my question, and those of a few other people's as well.

You don't mind dying today and lament the lack of a hammer. Nothing changed about his claim and that shit looked like a self-hammer. Regardless of intent, gives people like Affinity and Zakeri time to state their viewpoints.

Sodium unvoting Pesco because he's not sure whether Pesco is a power role or not seems to fly in the face of scumhunting because he changes his focus from Pesco's scumminess to a claim that has been confusing in presentation. In the end though, that claim has always been consistent in meaning. Pesco stated several times his aspirins do nothing, thus he claims vanilla. Whether he has been truthful or lying the whole time is what people can't decide on. Nevertheless, Sodium is not shooting that high up on my scumdar. It really feels like a newbie misunderstanding about Pesco's role and him stating he doesn't want Pesco to self-hammer is ok. I just don't see any reason for ScumSodium to make himself stand out like that, especially if Pesco is his Scum buddy. It's possible the Pesco lynch would still go on without his vote and then he would have lost his seat on the bus. Conclusion: can't effectively judge at the moment but first impression still leaves me thinking Sodium as Town.

Regarding Rou's case on Sodium: I don't think Sodium has been trying to avoid speaking about Dorian's words. He has given some thoughts on it. I just find it an unreliable way to determine whether he's Scum or not because Dorian stopped posting midway through Day 1, didn't say much as a whole and was quite confusing. The only notable thing is that he let Nuclear Fusion go and voted Donut. Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy. Frankly, your case on him looks a bit like IIoA, picking out what you suspect as poor choice of words like NF being a "suspicious confirmed Townie" and "arguing as usual" with Pesco. I don't think those are strong enough verbal tells to incriminate him on. The switch from Nietz to Pesco is a bit quick, but he gives a reason for it even if it was just off one point. Tell me how that one point is bad and I'll reevaluate it. The Carthrat case isn't quite the way how I see it, but the general gist is the same. I don't really like your case on Sodium there when you presented it and it makes me a bit wary of you. You just seem to be looking for the wrong things regarding his scumminess. Still not enough to currently top Pesco and Affinity.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 24, 2009, 06:03:03 AM
That's quite a post of nothings there Kiro. You're ready to bus Sodium the moment this gets heavy.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 24, 2009, 06:04:13 AM
Pesco: your opinion on Affinity please?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 24, 2009, 06:06:01 AM
@Rou:

##Unvote

Okay, I am satisfied with your post due to the consideration of connections and the fair amount of original points being brought up.

Quote
Admits later he will vote when Zak responds, but by D3 seems to have disregarded his case altogether, going for me instead for tunnelling Pesco. Why didn't he move his vote to Zakeri even after he got his response?

I did move my vote to Zakeri, I think.  Here (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43735#msg43735)  As for my D3 actions, I feel that he had already explained his actions thoroughly enough for me to put off any more questioning.  However, of course, I don't think his explanations were completely satisfactory, so I do feel that he's still scummy at the moment.

As for the Dorian business, I admit that I focused too much on the only good point he had, but it was all for the purpose of questioning Serp's vote and trying to make him elaborate further.  The lurkiness and the fallacies I didn't acknoledge, but I was quite aware of them and didn't want to mention them due to they being talked about lots already.  I also thought there were relatively more interesting targets that day like donut and NF and wanted to give him a free pass until day two or so as he had something redeeming to him.

Lastly, the switch from NF to donut instead of pesco was because I felt that pesco wasn't doing overtly scummy by deflecting donut's question (this opinion is strengthened since donut flipped town).  Since donut was waffling a little bit, I felt that voting him was better.

---

@Kiro:

Quote
The fact that you vote Roukan and make no mention of Pesco who by now is reasonably suspicious is what's putting you on my scumdar now.

I never said that Rou was more suspicious than pesco.  The vote was just a means of pressure rather than a statement pointing towards who I think is most scummy; I was merely calling him out on something I noticed.  pesco was already getting a bulk of the votes with more than enough reasons, elaborated, after all; thus I didn't think my vote on him would be as important or useful at the start of D3

Quote
If one shouldn't be "attacking people for voting him (Nuclear Fusion)," why does it look like you're attacking Rou for voting Pesco?

I was attacking Rou for voting pesco only the past days, so I don't think there is a basis for comparison.

Quote
I don't know where you think I mentioned something like the above. Care to explain?

You said Carthrat was not as scummy due to the fact that he didn't vote donut on D1.  This should not have been the case.

Also,

Quote
Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy.

Again, reasons, reasons, reasons, etc.  It seems hypocritical that you sometimes analyze the bandwagons without the reasons behind the votes when there is a flip, and analyze the reasons behind votes only when there is no flip available.

---

pesco is irritatingly scummy due to his shady nature and very minimal scumhunting which does not seem effective at all.  The only notable thing he posted in the entire game in terms of scumhunting worth was on NF, but even that was minimal on the account that it was easy to find bad things about him anyway.  I'm not going to consider his claimed role for this; anyone can claim a flavour role and keep it ambiguous after all.  Preferred lynch for today, but I'll hold my vote.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 24, 2009, 06:12:14 AM
I think of Affinity in the same terms as you do for Sodium, i.e. no important  opinion.

Lynches don't happen without votes. It's no good at this stage to say 'I like Pesco's lynch but I don't want to vote him yet'. Stop dicking around.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 24, 2009, 06:36:32 AM
Quote
Lynches don't happen without votes. It's no good at this stage to say 'I like Pesco's lynch but I don't want to vote him yet'. Stop dicking around.

True, but I wouldn't want you to self-hammer again.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 24, 2009, 06:44:57 AM
I've had plenty of time to self hammer. Man up and put me at L-1 if you're endorsing my lynch.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 24, 2009, 10:19:44 AM
Regarding Rou's case on Sodium: I don't think Sodium has been trying to avoid speaking about Dorian's words. He has given some thoughts on it. I just find it an unreliable way to determine whether he's Scum or not because Dorian stopped posting midway through Day 1, didn't say much as a whole and was quite confusing.
This post looks like IIoA to me. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45525#msg45525)
Next post:
Quote
The reason I thought it was alright was because one could possibly see a connection between you two because of that
Some deep analysis here, seriously.
And the cherry on the cake comes with one of his later posts: (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45813#msg45813)
Quote
Also, Dorian's posts were shit. There, happy? I was trying to give reasons to why they were shit(while not using that word), such as him being a newbie, and the reasons that he posted, but the posts were completely useless(WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY) and/or vague("that", what the fuck is "that"?) and/or BAD(TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM). If this isn't what you're looking for, PLEASE ::), tell me what you are looking for. Either way, I get the short end of the stick here.
So, you spent the last day validating Dorian's opinion to us...and now you admit that his posting was terrible? T_T

Quote
The only notable thing is that he let Nuclear Fusion go and voted Donut. Voting Donut was a mistake, but 5 other people did the same thing too. Marking that as your first main point against him is iffy.
I never said the vote on Donut was my main argument. I pointed out that a lot of his case against Donut was IIoA, but that's it.

Quote
Frankly, your case on him looks a bit like IIoA, picking out what you suspect as poor choice of words like NF being a "suspicious confirmed Townie" and "arguing as usual" with Pesco. I don't think those are strong enough verbal tells to incriminate him on.
What about the fact that he tried to suggest a PesRou scumpair (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43362#msg43362) without even producing a hint of evidence? Or the fact that this was more or less all he had to say about the argument until Day 3?

Quote
The switch from Nietz to Pesco is a bit quick, but he gives a reason for it even if it was just off one point. Tell me how that one point is bad and I'll reevaluate it.
The point was sheer meta, to be honest:
Quote from: Nietz
I did find scum-pesco once with the Preemptive Bandwagon theory (even though town didn't believe me and he stealth-hammered me then), so I thought it could be applied here as well.
And Ununubium just says 'lol ok', votes Pesco, and doesn't bring up Nietz again for the rest of the day.
Later he tries to validate it by saying 'someone used it before AND IT WORKED', but that really doesn't clear anything up.

I'm still placing Pesco as my first-place lynch for generally being an ass about his role as well as his 'hurrdurr NF is an idiot therefore he's scum' logic on D2, but I'm fine with either. Carthrat is a close third, but I want him to reply to my post before I go anywhere with him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 24, 2009, 02:07:56 PM
Do you blame me for attempting to make Dorian's posts sound not completely crappy? I mean, the stuff that was arguably good was completely vague(only Affinity got it the first time around), and then the rest was bad. I spent a while trying actually understand what he was saying and then I saw some semblance of thought(which meant that they were justifiable, sorta). And those posts are only a couple lines long. You're trying to get me to explain someones whole thought process with only vague hints to as what the hell he was doing. The conclusion I came up with was that he was a clueness newbie with Wrathie like posting. And Roukan, how is this relevant? Seeing as Pesco thinks questions don exits.

I explicitly said that there was no evidence for that(PesRou).
Quote
Now, there is absolutely no actual evidence to support this

It was something stupid I felt like posting.

Hi Kiro, what's with you defending me? And what would be "the right things" to incriminate someone as opposed to "the wrong things"?

Hi Affinity. Ignoring bad points and concentrating on the good points about someone isn't good~. Also,
Quote
Lastly, the switch from NF to donut instead of pesco was because I felt that pesco wasn't doing overtly scummy by deflecting donut's question (this opinion is strengthened since donut flipped town).
I don't get it. How does Donut being town make Pesco deflecting donut's question better?

Hi Pesco, you're probably going to die today, no matter what I think of the situation. You could do something useful instead of making comments implying that you're going to turn yourself in a ham hammer yourself, or telling others to get you to L-1 quicker.

...So, where's Carthrat? And Zakeri? =V It's been 24+ hours

No vote yet. =|
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 24, 2009, 02:11:15 PM
Zakeri was prodded a little while ago with no response. A prodding PM has just been sent to Carthrat.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 24, 2009, 02:44:30 PM
Laf, I got a prod PM right in the middle of writing a post. Figures.

<->

The reason I cared about Sodium's response is that the question is basically unanswerable and anything he says can then be said to be wrong. That having been said, I didn't expect him to seemingly break down and get mad under repeated questioning, so I could be wrong on this one; I'm certainly more worried about this than what he actually said with regards to Dorian's posting. Unvote on Pesco for 'he has a flavour role' is also pretty dodgy... and everything I had to say about that there was pretty much said by Serp. I don't think this is making him scummier than Pesco, but on the same token I'm not sure about anyone else really being up there right now; in retrospect Rou is looking a bit better for a reason detailed below (tl;dr putting too much credence on endgame play on my part.)

Rou's suspicions on me are basically ignoring the way day 1 is not day 2. At one point, lynching NF was blatant stupidity. The next day, his posting seemed far more like a fakeclaimer, and that was combined with nightime weirdness.

Game theory admittedly contributed to my change; while NF very much seemed scummy to me day 1, if I was wrong (which is always a strong possibility early on), then the payoff of him being town was pretty good, while we don't actually lose that much if we're wrong and it wouldn't have been impossible to recover. Thanks to weirdness on night 1, the payoff then stopped outweighing how goddamn scummy he looked come day 2; when you get a situation with a roleblocked copclaim, he's both useless and pulling out a pretty traditional line for scum in that position. Hence my switch.

Quote from: Rou
On D3, initially skips over Pesco AGAIN and instead turns on me for tunneling him and not liking the NF modkill. So I'm at fault for not being okay with sitting around and letting a player who I think is town get modkilled and losing us a day? >_>

If he was not modkilled during the day, he would've been modkilled during the night and given scum additional bonus night to kill more townies in. So yes, you are at fault for not being okay with the best and, frankly, only possible course of action at that stage. Admittedly, this was only revealed publically at large after your slew of posting, so it's less of a point than I first thought.

I have no idea what pesco hopes to achieve through baiting people to lynch him, except reverse psychology crap. Very odd. He's going after trivial points (e.g. that OMG BOLD TEXT thing, wtf?) His actions are just odd and strange all around; the most obvious reason I can think of is that he's started a brawl with sodium and then set out to look as scummy as heck in order to buy his buddy cred after his lynch. In any case he's clearly saying just the first thing he thinks of after reading any given post without much consideration.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 24, 2009, 03:15:40 PM
Talk your crap after I flip scum in the next game.

There is great relevance in people not putting their votes on me despite their words. You've all already decided I'm not going to answer questions, so why are you letting me drag the day on? If you're going to back off my lynch then make your votes useful instead of fluffing around. Either you get on with it and lynch me, or vote someone else.

At the end of the day, I flip town and so does Rou.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 24, 2009, 03:48:13 PM
@Sodium:

Quote
Ignoring bad points and concentrating on the good points about someone isn't good~

You missed my point completely about Dorian.  I was using the good points to question Serp about his decision to vote Dorian; the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.

Quote
I don't get it. How does Donut being town make Pesco deflecting donut's question better?

If donut was scum, then pesco's switch to Kiro at the very beginning of the game would be sliglhtly scummier because he would be avoiding his scumbuddy for bad reasons.  But that's a minor point, so don't mind me.

--

@pesco:

Once again, more time at this stage favours town.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 24, 2009, 03:56:00 PM
Giving scum more time to build cred for their votes on me ain't cool either.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 24, 2009, 10:52:45 PM
Quote
Do you blame me for attempting to make Dorian's posts sound not completely crappy?
As a matter of fact, yes. If you honestly thought they were terrible, then you should have said so. People would probably have been okay with accepting that Dorian was a pretty horrible player, but you said so much in his favour that it looked more like you were trying to avoid anything that could resemble a blot against your name.

Quote
Seeing as Pesco thinks questions don exits.
...The hell does this even mean?

Quote
Game theory admittedly contributed to my change; while NF very much seemed scummy to me day 1, if I was wrong (which is always a strong possibility early on), then the payoff of him being town was pretty good, while we don't actually lose that much if we're wrong and it wouldn't have been impossible to recover. Thanks to weirdness on night 1, the payoff then stopped outweighing how goddamn scummy he looked come day 2; when you get a situation with a roleblocked copclaim, he's both useless and pulling out a pretty traditional line for scum in that position. Hence my switch.
I admit that you did take this in a much more logical route, rather than Pesco's 'I don't care if you're Town or scum, you're an idiot and therefore deserve to die'. This is why you're not my main suspicion at this point, but the way you just managed to avoid the Pesco case for over a day annoyed me. I guess that really depends on Pesco's flip first and foremost, though.

Quote
the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.
So in other words, you thought that there were several valid points against Dorian...but still wanted to question Serp's vote anyway? I'm lost.

And of course, Pesco is telling us that spending more time discussing other cases is a BAD thing. Looking real Townie there, Pesco.
That's quite a post of nothings there Kiro. You're ready to bus Sodium the moment this gets heavy.
I'm sorry, but this is the worst thing I've seen anyone post all game outside of NF's 'oh look, a scumbuddy' back on D1. Still waiting for more conversation from Adamantium before I press the wagon, and all of your goading is doing jack shit about it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 24, 2009, 11:40:17 PM
If I said that Dorian was complete ass, then people would've still held it against me. Granted, I should've said it the first time, so essentially, you're right.

Pesco doesn't answer questions, so I'm poking fun at it by saying that he thinks questions don't exist. The don exits part is a purposely mistyped "don't exist", referencing some meme. I should stop putting stuff like that, shouldn't I?

@Affinity:
You missed my point completely about Dorian.  I was using the good points to question Serp about his decision to vote Dorian; the bad points were already obvious at that time and therefore irrelevant to the discussion.
...Isn't that basically ignoring them? I mean, your saying that you acknowledged the bad points about Dorian, dismissed them for being obvious, and still attacked Serp for voting Dorian, while knowing that he had justification for his vote. Why do obvious points=irrelevant?

Quote
If donut was scum, then pesco's switch to Kiro at the very beginning of the game would be sliglhtly scummier because he would be avoiding his scumbuddy for bad reasons.  But that's a minor point, so don't mind me.
Oh, I misunderstood. I thought you were saying that Pesco's deflection wasn't all that scummy because Donut was town. Dunno how I came to that.

Also, where's Zakeri? =V He's been gone for 30+ hours.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 25, 2009, 02:38:25 AM
I count four and a half hours to a Zakeri modkill.  Full analysis in a bit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 25, 2009, 02:40:14 AM
EBWOP:  Oh, wait, it's 24 hours after the prod, not 48 hours after last post. :V  Okay, I guess we have a little more time then.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 25, 2009, 03:25:45 AM
Alright, modkill analysis:  Without knowing Pesco's flip, Zakeri is my second choice for a lynch.  On top of everything else, disappearing to let everyone else tear at each other is a scummy move.  If we let him get modkilled, and he's scum, then the time resets and we have three more lynches to catch his scumbuddy.  That's a pretty attractive prospect.  If we lynch Pesco, and Pesco's scum, and Zakeri's not scum, then the Zakeri modkill should mean that Pesco's scumbuddy gets to pick two kills, bringing us to 5 players left with one scum among them.  If we lynch Pesco, Zakeri gets modkilled, and both are town, then I'm hoping that Alice wouldn't skip our LyLo and we'll just go into 5 player LyLo, but I can't guarantee that...

Anyway, I'm thinking that we should let Zakeri get modkilled if he doesn't show up.  If he does show up, then I'd rather see Pesco's flip.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 25, 2009, 05:55:40 AM
1) I never said that Rou was more suspicious than pesco.  The vote was just a means of pressure rather than a statement pointing towards who I think is most scummy; I was merely calling him out on something I noticed.  pesco was already getting a bulk of the votes with more than enough reasons, elaborated, after all; thus I didn't think my vote on him would be as important or useful at the start of D3

2) I was attacking Rou for voting pesco only the past days, so I don't think there is a basis for comparison.

3) You said Carthrat was not as scummy due to the fact that he didn't vote donut on D1. This should not have been the case.

4) Again, reasons, reasons, reasons, etc.  It seems hypocritical that you sometimes analyze the bandwagons without the reasons behind the votes when there is a flip, and analyze the reasons behind votes only when there is no flip available.

1) I never intended to make it sound like you said that. All I'm saying is that Pesco is suspicious in a way that I don't think anybody should ignore after Day 2 and you never mentioned it while you voted Rou. And you were the first to vote on Day 3, you cannot be certain the same people who voted him before would vote him Day 3. Regardless, calling out Rou is fine, but trying to put more weight on it by voting is meh at best when he wasn't going to immediately respond. Can be interpreted as you just parking your vote in a convenient place for a while.

2) Rou voting Pesco only is true, but Pesco is similar for mostly only voting Nuclear Fusion once it got down to it. Pesco held his vote on me because I wasn't around for almost a whole day, but he did at some point state that NF all but has his vote. Since you seemed to be worried about the absolute tunneling, I can't dispute that specific point although I disagree with the idea that it weighs more to prod Rou on this rather than address Pesco first.

3) The point about Carthrat is true so I'll let that pass.

4) It's foolish to take everyone's reasons at face value because some of them are being made by Scum. It's all speculation and yes, it is hypocritical at times. But if you think I'm misreping something, then argue against it and/or accuse me of being scummy for doing so. Other than Pesco, nobody else has really done so. Zakeri didn't like my Day 2 case on him, but he didn't accuse me of misrep so the case stands and if he's Town, he just has to push cases that are better than the one on him including a case on me if he thinks I'm misreping.

Sodium: I'm not defending you explicitly, just saying what I think, that my impression is that you're still a Townie despite your recent unvote which objectively can be seen both ways. And Rou's responses to me do clarify his case on you and I'm seeing why he finds you scummy. My major complaint with his case is that you trying to interpret what Dorian said is a lose-lose situation because there is no answer to objectively satisfy people with. I harbor a strong suspicion of Pesco for trying to get you to do that because it feels like a setup and Rou somewhat for believing your interpretations are of significant weight.

Well, if Zakeri's asleep now, then he'll have to respond by around 10 AM his time or get modkilled?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 25, 2009, 07:51:02 AM
Well, unless Zak comes back, I'm honestly not sure how this is an actual game anymore. Don't really know what to say, letting him get modkilled during day is obviously better than night, but he's not a frontrunner in my books and I'm pretty annoyed over this.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 25, 2009, 08:40:18 AM
Io continuer? a viver qui, per trasmettere al futuro la prova che tu ci sei stato.
Guarda il cielo a ponente.
Tra poco la luna scomparir?.
La luce che zampilla dall'orizzonte trasforma a poco a poco il colore del cielo.
Ah! Diventa pi? luminoso, il mondo che hai lasciato.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS4oJi4U9IQ&fmt=18)

Day 3 Votecount - 1 day, 19 hours remaining.
Pesco (3) - Serpentarius, Kiro, Carthrat
EX Na_2SO_4 (2) - Roukanken, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity

I'm going to be nice and give Zakeri until 22:00 EST to post before modkilling him, simply because this is fucking ridiculous.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 25, 2009, 09:54:30 AM
I'm sorry. I'm having trouble keeping track of how long a day is with my weird sleeping schedual. I'm not planning on getting modkilled.

I'll sit down now and read try to reread everything before I do anything else.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 25, 2009, 10:52:49 AM
As much as Zak's lurking annoys me, I'm going to wait for his next post before I start judging him. I'd also appreciate if he could produce something with a little more content than his IIoA bandwagon analysis and dissection of Pesco's (now apparently fake) crumbing. :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 25, 2009, 11:39:05 AM
Did Sodium ever give us the full story of why my claim is believable all of a sudden?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 25, 2009, 11:40:36 AM
No, on the grounds of needing to claim for it. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 25, 2009, 11:44:24 AM
You think that's acceptable? I certainly don't from my role's PoV.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 25, 2009, 12:51:21 PM
Well, it's not really that I need to claim as it is that my role is similar in that it's flavoured useless, except different. How else would I know that there are those roles? This might as well be a roleclaim. =V You probably don't believe me, but yeah.

"Zakeri getting modkilled" train safely stopped before causing a trainwreck. Hurray!

Pesco, what you said implied that you didn't read my posts. -_-
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 25, 2009, 01:44:54 PM
The reason I didn't vote for Pesco was because I felt that votes were piling up on him rather quickly and didn't want to end the day too early. the person who brought pesco to L-1 was Sodium, who followed his vote by asking for a vote count.

Pesco:
Quote
I'm disappointed that I didn't come home to a hammer. Y'all suck.
Why were you expecting a hammer not even 24 hours into day 3?

I think I gave my opinion on the questioning Pesco took on Sodium for Dorian's actions. If not, here it is: Why does Sodium's interpretation matter? He got the same role pm, he already knows if Dorian was town or scum. This only serves to trip sodium up.

347 - Why did you ask if you could self-hammer, and why was that priority over voting for Sodium?
Quote from: Pesco 357
If I was going to self hammer, I would have done so long ago.
Really? I thought you were still waiting for an answer to that question.

As for Sodium, I think he's opening himself up to be victimized by Roukanken and Pesco. What I'm getting from his latest posts is that he's letting Pesco's claim confuse him, which honestly seems like the intent of most of Pesco's role claims and breadcrumbs. I do want a fullclaim from Sodium, due to his insistence that knowing Pesco's role name means something important to him.

357 - 377
Again, Pesco, why do you want to be taken to L-1? I'd like to know this especially because of my thoughts on your 347.

Quote from: Roukanken
On D2, pulls out a case on Zakeri for stepping back from the Pesco lynch. Then flips BACK onto NF after he storms off, claiming it'd only help scum. I stand by my earlier belief that Scum!NF would have nothing to gain from this course of action.
Considering that if we had lynched yesterday we would have lost all of day 3 to auto-lynching Nuke do you feel this is a decent point against Kiro?

The first half of Rou's 378 on Sodium is facepalm inducing. I know from experience what it's like to go back and try to justify what the person you replaced said, And I know it's rather hard, since you weren't there when that person said it. Especially if you don't agree with what they said. Basically, no matter how you answer to justifying another person's actions, your answer will always seem scummy. The best answer is to refuse to answer in the first place. This means that the question is loaded to make the answerer look scummy, which means the question itself is scummy because it put equal pressure on town and scum. I don't see why Sodium should take the heat for the way he answered them anymore than for the fact that he did answer them in the first place.

Cut by Sodium: That's pretty much what I was expecting your claim to look like. Taking Asprine is no more significant than using Traffic signs or being a wimp, and unless Alice is stupid (which I seriously doubt) He wouldn't make alignment determinable just from these little pieces of flavor. right now, it should just be treated as a Vanilla ---- claim.

Pesco seems to be doing his best to try and Mindscrew the rest of the town, and targeting Sodium for it. Roukanken's case on Sodium seems to be based largely on Rou buying Pesco's scummy line of questioning

Additionally, I'd like to see quite a bit more from Serp now. Your last posts of note have been (In reverse order)
387-389: Thinks the modkill isn't entirely bad.
368: Tries to Waffle on Sodium after stating he thinks he's town.
324: Scumpair theories resulting in IIoA and prods on Carth and Affinity
I'm seeing Serp give less and less as the day goes on, and while his 312 looks genuine (Listing who he wants to vote and the reasons why) he's yet to do much beyond that.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 25, 2009, 02:37:01 PM
There's too many people distancing from my lynch. L-1 is no big deal when I'm ready to die anytime.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 25, 2009, 04:58:42 PM
Considering that if we had lynched yesterday we would have lost all of day 3 to auto-lynching Nuke do you feel this is a decent point against Kiro?
I was unaware at that point that if NF got modkilled during the night scum got a free kill. Thus I'm willing to withdraw this point.

Quote
The first half of Rou's 378 on Sodium is facepalm inducing. I know from experience what it's like to go back and try to justify what the person you replaced said, And I know it's rather hard, since you weren't there when that person said it. Especially if you don't agree with what they said. Basically, no matter how you answer to justifying another person's actions, your answer will always seem scummy. The best answer is to refuse to answer in the first place. This means that the question is loaded to make the answerer look scummy, which means the question itself is scummy because it put equal pressure on town and scum. I don't see why Sodium should take the heat for the way he answered them anymore than for the fact that he did answer them in the first place.
Well from how you put it Francium answered in the worst way possible - he contradicted  himself by saying that there was something useful in those posts and then admitting later that he was grasping with what he had to work with. Even admitting 'Dorian's posts were crap' would be better than that in my opinion.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 25, 2009, 06:54:00 PM
Quote from: Pesco
There's too many people distancing from my lynch. L-1 is no big deal when I'm ready to die anytime.

Actually It is a big deal when you're ready to die anytime.

Quote
I was unaware at that point that if NF got modkilled during the night scum got a free kill. Thus I'm willing to withdraw this point.
Okay.

Quote
he contradicted  himself by saying that there was something useful in those posts and then admitting later that he was grasping with what he had to work with.
Yes, it's a legitimate contradiction, but contradictions aren't automatically scummy. Yes, it's important to note things like "I want to lynch x, Vote: y" and ["Vote: X" "X is Town" "I didn't like that lynch."]. This only works when you don't know other's alignments. Sodium already knows what Dorian's alignment is. He came into this game knowing because he was given Dorian's Role PM.

Imagine this: You replace in for X. X babbled a little bit, but was vague and eventually dropped out. You recieve the role PM and it reads town. Later you're asked to explain X's actions. Are you more likely to think "X was just a bad player." or "X was a townie, so there has to be some coherent thought behind his posts."

Now imagine if X Was Scum. Would you say "Yeah, he was probably just trying to bandwagon, so I'm just gonna call him a bad player." or "Well, there has to be some coherent thoughts behind his posts."

In the end, the correct answer is just to say "He's a bad player." But I believe that a Naive Townie would be much more likely to try and analyze the previous poster's thoughts before giving up on it like sodium did.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Serp on July 25, 2009, 08:30:17 PM
I'm seeing Serp give less and less as the day goes on, and while his 312 looks genuine (Listing who he wants to vote and the reasons why) he's yet to do much beyond that.

Some of that has been legitimate business outside the game.  If I had had more time to focus on the thread, I probably would've pressed Sodium again to just tell us who he wants to lynch and maybe added to the Affinity/Kiro exchange.  Most of it, though, has just been that my preferred lynch looks like it's going to go through, and there's no real opposition against it for me to argue with.  I need to see Pesco's flip to put all this in proper context.

I also object to your mischaracterization of my 368.  I was saying that Sodium had not produced anything scummy in my view between my last post and the post where I said I was keeping my eye on him.  I noted that his reactions to Roukanken's pressuring gave us all something to chew on.  For the record, I agree that asking Sodium to explain Dorian doesn't really give Sodium an easy way out, but I wouldn't call that a scumtell - it's a viable way to force another player to open up and put some statements out there.  Those statements can then be analyzed, and if for some reason a player would take any answer to the question as scummy, that's a flaw in the player doing the analyzing, not a flaw in the player doing the questioning.

Quote from: Zakeri
In the end, the correct answer is just to say "He's a bad player." But I believe that a Naive Townie would be much more likely to try and analyze the previous poster's thoughts before giving up on it like sodium did.

And this is practically WIFOM.  Of course, a smart scummy player would know what a naive townie's reaction would be.  Anyone can feign play that's ordinarily below his level.  I believe that Sodium's responses don't contain anything overtly scummy, but his flailing is a somewhat scummy reaction.  It doesn't really compare to my preferred case, but it's worth noting in the future.

Also note that I'm going offline and I probably won't be back before the deadline.  I'm keeping my vote on Pesco.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Affinity on July 25, 2009, 10:47:57 PM
@Sodium:

Quote
...Isn't that basically ignoring them? I mean, your saying that you acknowledged the bad points about Dorian, dismissed them for being obvious, and still attacked Serp for voting Dorian, while knowing that he had justification for his vote. Why do obvious points=irrelevant?

Well, no, obvious points =/= irrelevant in the big picture, but they were irrelevant to my questioning of Serp.  Newbies were newbies after all, and any accusation has to be balanced out by good and bad points on that person, especially at that point in D1.

---

@Kiro:

All I can say at this point is that I sincerely expected others like Rou to further the pesco case, with me focusing on the Rou questioning, and that I neglected to comment on pesco based on this reason.

---

Zakeri's WIFOMing has not been pleasing.  Neither are the circular arguments engaged with Roukanken; saying that 'bad players aren't necessarily scummy' and then following it up with 'naive townies are more likely to be bad' doesn't do it for me. 
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 26, 2009, 01:25:19 AM
Votecount is unchanged, pesco is at L-2, Na_3PO_4 is at L-3, deadline is in 1 day, 2 hours.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 26, 2009, 02:03:21 AM
I agree with Zak in spirit, I think, if not quite to the letter of what he's saying. The best answer to the interpretation question is to basically ignore it, but if for some reason you feel compelled to reply, then no matter what your alignment, you're probably better off trying to put some townie reasoning behind it. I don't really think there's much there to find short of flamebait.

Quote from: Serp
For the record, I agree that asking Sodium to explain Dorian doesn't really give Sodium an easy way out, but I wouldn't call that a scumtell - it's a viable way to force another player to open up and put some statements out there.  Those statements can then be analyzed(snip)

Anything can be analyzed and that's no excuse for asking leading trap questions. Has what's happened given us potential insight into town-scum relations? I guess, sort of, except this is telling us far more about the questioners than the questioned imo.

Is there really another real-time day left of the day? I thought there was a day left... yesterday. Huh.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 02:14:42 AM
"If *noun here* were scum, I/he/she/it would..." arguments are always WIFOM. Stop using them.

But anyways, I'll admit that it was in poor judgement for me to have done that. There's really no more point in trying to actually argue if it were bad/scummy or not.

So, I'm not impressed with Zakeri's last two posts. Aside from questioning Pesco(which is pretty futile to be honest), he goes out of his way to defend me(it's mainly his "Oh, I've been in a situation like this before, take it easy on him), targets Serp for lacking post content when 1.everyone's been posting less as the Day has been going on and 2.there are others that arguably posted less then Serp(Carthrat,Affinity, etc.). Then his second post is...IF X WERE SCUM WIFOM. Some of the points from Day 2 I also still hold against him(although less now), so...

##Vote Zakeri

Oh, and if I ignored it, they would ask why I didn't answer, and that would've also been viewed as bad/scummy(ignoring questions). The best way out would've probably been to point out the trap aspect of it, but then answering it concisely and clearly anyways.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 02:39:57 AM
In the end, the correct answer is just to say "He's a bad player." But I believe that a Naive Townie would be much more likely to try and analyze the previous poster's thoughts before giving up on it like sodium did.
So your logic is that the contradiction arises simply because CO2 is a bad player? o_o

Meanwhile, I think we've got enough out of the day for a quick self-hammer to not be a tragic loss.

##Unvote: EX Na2O2
Vote: Pesco


That's L-1. Feel like contributing to this discussion rather than prodding at Einsteinium's role?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Kiro on July 26, 2009, 04:24:50 AM
Well, I don't think I have anything more to add at the moment. Pesco doesn't give me much to respond to, in regards to his defense and his suspicions of me. My vote is going to remain there as I'm ready to see the end of Day 3. It's hard to say whether I'd go for Affinity or Zakeri more if Pesco flips scum, but I wouldn't ignore anyone else as Carthrat and Serp have quieted down and there are still minor concerns with Sodium and Rou. Otherwise, a Pesco Town flip throws those first 2 cases out of wack a bit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 07:29:11 AM
Rou is town. Kiro is more likely town to me due to external reasoning. I still think Random Chemical is scum, and wouldn't put it past Serp and Carthrat riding it out as stand-alones.

How did I conclude all this? SatorimindhaxTM
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 10:08:15 AM
When I asked you to contribute to the discussion, I didn't mean 'I trust A B and C and don't like D based on gut'. I've noted that Zak is mysteriously absent from your List of Mindhax, and it's strange you don't have any opinion on him given how much he's come up in recent discussion.

On that note, what's your opinion of Affinity?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 10:24:52 AM
EBWOP: Obviously I'm expecting an opinion on Zak as well. Just saying that so you don't worm your way out with an excuse like 'but you didn't ask'. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 10:29:26 AM
No opinion on Zak. Just call him the Alice stand-in for this game.

If I've got an opinion on Affinity, I'm keeping it to myself.

I've told you all enough times I'm well past my sell-by date.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 10:36:34 AM
No opinion on Zak. Just call him the Alice stand-in for this game.
By which you mean...what? Lurking But Still Contributing Something Of Use Alice or Lurking And Being Generally Useless Alice?

If I've got an opinion on Affinity, I'm keeping it to myself.
...Sometimes you make me wish I had two votes instead of one. :|
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 10:53:40 AM
I think Zak's been busy in general. What can you really do about it.

I've ignored Affinity most of the game. There's simply nothing to see.

You better stop with the conspiracy theories if you don't want to burst some veins. It's for your own physical health.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 26, 2009, 11:13:30 AM
I know I've already lost the argument, but I still feel it's more likely that a townie would fall into that trap than scum would. I don't get how what I said becomes WiFoM before the part where you dismiss Occam's Razor.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 11:17:57 AM
Occam's Razor
Yeah, Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to Mafia games (as someone told me a few games back). For the sake of example, let's look at Alice's claim in Workers' Union. 'His claim is legitimate and he's really a doc' is indeed the simpler answer, but 'His claim is fake and he's coming up with excuses as to why he can't kill as he goes along' is the correct one. Just because something is simple doesn't mean it's probably right here.

You better stop with the conspiracy theories if you don't want to burst some veins. It's for your own physical health.
ITT subtle attempts to distract me from playing via health concerns.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 26, 2009, 12:20:20 PM
That's one instance where the Unlikely was true, yes, but does that mean we should start dismissing the things that are more likely? At what point then does a Scumtell become a scumtell and a towntell become a towntell? Doesn't everything then become undecipherable WiFoM?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 12:57:29 PM
The point is that Occam's Razor says 'because it's simple, it's probably right'. I'm not saying that scumtells aren't scumtells, I'm saying we shouldn't assume one argument is true just because it's simpler.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 26, 2009, 01:17:28 PM
Sometimes Occam's razor is correct. Other times, it is not. There's no unifying mafia strategy, otherwise it'd be a pretty dull game. Again, this is another topic that's not going to go anywhere helpful on it's own... although I don't know what else to talk about today.

I'm set for a pesco lynch, and he's virtually begging for rope. The only other case floating about is the one on Sodium, and I didn't like it. So.

Is someone going to actually hammer, or at least make another case?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 01:24:02 PM
Occam's Razor is cool because keeping up a lie is more difficult than keeping up the truth. Obviously Rou isn't a very good liar :V.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 26, 2009, 01:26:58 PM
Oh, and, of course, Sodium's case on Zak, which I totally missed. Hmm.

Wow. I'm really not liking it, since I agreed with most of what Zak was saying. It's a really weird vote, too, based on almost nothing and not referencing anything else Zak has done throughout the game. Pesco/Sodium scumteam is seeming more possible than before.

Still preferring Pescolynch, but this is getting up there.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 01:34:05 PM
Real effort you putting in there Carthrat. Remind us for the record exactly what your stance is on my lynch and how you got there. Simply saying 'He played so scummy and deserves to be hanged' won't cut it today or tomorrow.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 26, 2009, 01:37:14 PM
my point isn't that "It's simpler, therefore it's the truth." My point is that mafia is mostly about deciding which is more probable. It's one thing to say "I think ScumSodium is just as likely if not more likely to have done what he did because blah blah therefore it's a null/scumtell." but the point I've seen brought up most often against my argument is "just because it's probable doesn't mean it's certain." which flies in the face of the core values I learned in Critical Thinking PHL 105 (Yes, I took a Collage Class just to help me learn how to play mafia)

at the rate this conversation is moving, I'm willing to bet money that no one here (including myself) has done any useful analyzing this game.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Carthrat on July 26, 2009, 01:49:39 PM
And posting witty one-liners after every post isn't going to cut it for you today, but whatever.

-Voting NK late postclaim day 1 was bad bad BAD.
-For most of the game you've been extraordinarily contrary, often forcing people to question you multiple times to get the simplest of answers.
-Today, you have...

Made cases based entirely on meta, and cleared people (hi, Rou) for the same. Picked out a pretty damn trivial detail and tried to make a case of solely it (hi, Kiro), and you've asked leading 'trap' questions of Sodium which help so little in the process of finding scum, as simply buying into the discussion makes one appear scummier. And at this point, you've basically gone 'lol I'm not talking much 'bout anything', not to mention practically egged on your lynch.

In short I'm getting a sense of "I'm fucked, so I'll spend the rest of the day screwing around/give my buddy town cred/random scum hyjinx to throw people off" confirm/deny plz
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 02:04:47 PM
My point is that mafia is mostly about deciding which is more probable.
But Occam's Razor explicitly states 'it's more likely because it's simpler'. It's basically the logical equivalent of taking the easy way out.

Quote
but the point I've seen brought up most often against my argument is "just because it's probable doesn't mean it's certain."
Where exactly does anyone say this? Because I don't remember anyone saying anything along these lines.

Quote
Critical Thinking PHL 105
I assume your professor was Hershel Layton.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 02:11:27 PM
I said that my Day 2 points were still there(although less). =V That would mainly be the sudden change of his vote to Donut on Day 1(I didn't like his answer either), and general lurkiness.

So I'm voting him because:
Donut vote at Day 1(little reason, the wagon swinger)
Other various Day points from Day 2(Kiro's 250 is nice)
General lurkiness(RL probably the cause, so this isn't really major or anything)
"Oh hey Serp, post more, while some other people and I haven't posted all that much either"
"If x were scum" WIFOM
Posting not much after coming back from 48 hours without posting(not really important as it was at the time of my vote)

Also, Pesco hasn't been doing anything useful for a while. I'm sorta set on auto-ignore Pesco after he implied that he didn't read my posts, and because he's not answering most questions directed at him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 02:13:12 PM
EBWOP:Uh, Zakeri's post on Donut had little reason and was the wagon swinger. Just clearing up the wording in those brackets next the "Donut vote at Day 1".
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 26, 2009, 02:45:53 PM
Quote from: Serpentarius
Of course, a smart scummy player would know what a naive townie's reaction would be.  Anyone can feign play that's ordinarily below his level.
Here, Serp counters my point by saying there's a chance Sodium was playing badly on purpose.
Quote from: Affinity
saying that 'bad players aren't necessarily scummy' and then following it up with 'naive townies are more likely to be bad' doesn't do it for me.
Affinity doesn't actively deny that it's likely, but instead implies that being more likely isn't a good enough reason to believe something.
Quote from: Roukanken
Yeah, Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to Mafia games (as someone told me a few games back).
I already explained my thoughts on this in post 418

more importantly, it seems a lot of people missed the point of my argument, which was that I think a Townie would be more likely to play like sodium did in reply to Pesco's questioning than a Mafioso would. The point on Occam's Razor not applying really grills my goat because it's basically saying "But what if he's really a smart player trying to fool you into thinking he's a townie by playing badly." Which, is a really poor WiFoM in itself.

Quote from: Roukanken
But Occam's Razor explicitly states 'it's more likely because it's simpler'. It's basically the logical equivalent of taking the easy way out.
Yukkuri shiteitte ne!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 02:54:47 PM
You know what the problem with Occam's Razor is? The simplest explanation for more or less any contradiction or mistake in Mafia is 'he didn't mean it and it was a genuine error'. If we take that stance and assume every single slip-up to be an honest mistake we're never going to find scum ever.

What I never understood about your reasoning is why a Naive Townie and a Naive Mafioso would have different thought processes in this situation. A Naive Mafioso would want to make his predecessor's posts look good in order to make himself look better, so I don't see how your point is anything besides a nulltell. A Naive Townie, however, is more likely imo to have an opinion and stick with it. The contradiction is what makes me cautious of Sodium here. (Yeah, I've run out of funny names to call him.)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 03:41:14 PM
I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat. Is it an all in on my lynch?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 26, 2009, 03:41:56 PM
This is exactly what I'm looking for in terms of acceptable replies.

Now I can see how a mafioso would try to justify the previous poster's actions, especially if he thinks there's a mark against him, but in the case of Dorian I think a mafioso would be much more inclined to just say forget it. It is possible a bad mafioso player to try it anyway, so I'm not debunking it's possibility completely.

As for the contradiction, I'm actually having trouble finding where the contradiction is. in 326 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45525#msg45525) He tries to analyze Dorian's thought process, and ends up with the conclusion that he was playing like a clueless newbie. He continues his following posts saying that Dorian's reasoning was alright considering Dorian was a clueless newbie. The outbreak in his post 355 is just Sodium admitting he's can't fully justify Dorian's actions because Dorian was posting like a Clueless newbie.

In short, I don't even see where he changed his opinion on Dorian, much less where the contradiction comes from. Unless the contradiction is "Sodium tries justifying Dorian, Sodium finds he can't justify it, then says so" Which actually speaks more for Dorian's posting style than it does for Sodium's alignment.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 03:59:21 PM
Now I can see how a mafioso would try to justify the previous poster's actions, especially if he thinks there's a mark against him, but in the case of Dorian I think a mafioso would be much more inclined to just say forget it. It is possible a bad mafioso player to try it anyway, so I'm not debunking it's possibility completely.
So why is a bad mafioso willing to ignore it and a bad townie isn't?

Quote
As for the contradiction, I'm actually having trouble finding where the contradiction is. in 326 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45525#msg45525) He tries to analyze Dorian's thought process, and ends up with the conclusion that he was playing like a clueless newbie. He continues his following posts saying that Dorian's reasoning was alright considering Dorian was a clueless newbie. The outbreak in his post 355 is just Sodium admitting he's can't fully justify Dorian's actions because Dorian was posting like a Clueless newbie.
Pesco asks him what he thought of Dorian's reasoning here. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45574#msg45574) He responds 'It made sense at the time since there was a possible connection' (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45577#msg45577), and later says his points were reasonable and acceptable. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45612#msg45612) Then he turns around and screams DORIAN HAS PRODUCED NOTHING USEFUL (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45813#msg45813). THERE'S your contradiction.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 04:30:03 PM
Easy viewing posts (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=342)

Cut crap and just hammer. Sodium should be free to deliver.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 04:51:44 PM
I'm not seeing the point Pesco's making with Carthrat. Looking back at his posts Pesco does indeed vote NF after the copclaim (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42760#msg42760), and Carth calls him out for refusing to give a straight answer/being contrary (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42880#msg42880).

PESCO, FOR THE LOVE OF KANAKO, IF YOU HAVE A POINT TO MAKE JUST FREAKING SAY IT. Wrapping up your points in enigmas so people can't understand them is blatantly anti-Town.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:04:52 PM
The point is hammer me, get my flip, move on. You're only making this complicated yourself.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 05:15:12 PM
I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat.
CLARIFY THIS.

I swear if you actually flip Town after all of this bullshit I will have a Battler-level mental breakdown.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:20:37 PM
I didn exactly see the answer I wanted from Carthrat.
CLARIFY THIS.

I swear if you actually flip Town after all of this bullshit I will have a Battler-level mental breakdown.

I already clarified it.

Go get your meds.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 05:27:35 PM
Pesco, you said that you would self-hammer. Anyways, I can't hammer you(now, I might later if there's no one else around and we need a hammer) because I don't think you're scum, so yeah. You're just hilariously anti-town...which is a pretty good reason to vote you actually, but not yet.

Oh, and Roukan, just because they're acceptable from someone who is essentially clueless newbie+Wrathie, doesn't mean it isn't BAD. Everything potentially good he said was said before, or explained later in a much clearer way. Being called clueless newbie + Wrathie isn't good in the first place, especially if it's supposed to make it sound not as harsh.

[irrelevant]Roukan, perhaps you should try Suwako instead of Kanako. =3[/irrelevant]
But really, Pesco didn't answer other people's questions well, so I doubt he'd answer yours well either. Even though he thinks you're town. =V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 05:34:36 PM
You know, I'm sick of this. If you're scum there's no point in arguing with you, and if you're Town then you're just plain being a dick.

Unless anyone has anything new they want to bring up, maybe we should just hammer Pesco now. He's planting WIFOMs everywhere he goes, and my every effort to squeeze content out of him has been turned down.

tl;dr CAN IT BE HAMMER TIME NAO

Suwako Morioxide ninja:
I don't think you're scum, so yeah. You're just hilariously anti-town...which is a pretty good reason to vote you actually, but not yet.
I think I just died a little inside.

Quote
Oh, and Roukan, just because they're acceptable from someone who is essentially clueless newbie+Wrathie, doesn't mean it isn't BAD. Everything potentially good he said was said before, or explained later in a much clearer way. Being called clueless newbie + Wrathie isn't good in the first place, especially if it's supposed to make it sound not as harsh.
I've already expressed my complaints about this - Dorian basically IIoA'd his vote, Affinity pulled some hidden meaning out of nowhere, and Dorian replied 'yeah that's what i meant'. In the event that Pesco flips Town despite all his bullshit I'd suggest him as a potential buddy based on this.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:38:25 PM
Where did I say I would self hammer? Alice has stated dislike for it and I'd respect that since only as scum would I have something to gain with self-hammering.

You've put quite a big turnaround with the opinion on me and I don't like it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 05:41:46 PM
That was because I wasn't about to let you convince me to cut the day short and prevent discussion, BECAUSE TALKING IS PRO-TOWN. Now that conversation is wearing thin, I see no harm in going back to you.

I also love how I'm apparently scummy for not being irritated by you being totally useless.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 05:42:52 PM
*sigh*
Want me to hammer? There's no one else here that can do it anyways(I think). Just you, Pesco, and I.

I know, contridiction from what I posted 5 minutes ago, but you and Pesco obviously feel the need to just end the Day already. That's 66.67% of the current players on right now(I think).

Pesco:
You said it about two real life days ago. I just assumed that you still had the thought, but you don't, it seems.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:52:39 PM
Suicide. Anyone can be physically capable of it, but not everyone will do it.

Since you feel so strongly that I'm not scum then you shouldn't be afraid of making it clear to all why. You put yourself in this position so make it good for town, either you get caught out as scum or you prevent a mislynch.

I frankly don't think you claiming is going to cost anything amazing. Chances are that I still get lynched anyway, you draw NK (at worst) and that should leave at least 2 confirmed for tomorrow. If I don't get lynched, we'll just have to look elsewhere in the time remaining. Also the fact that you've waited this long and still haven't done anything to try prevent a mislynch is scummy.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 05:54:47 PM
I'd rather leave to someone who actually thinks Pesco is scum.

By the way, I don't understand why after all this 'BUT HE HAS A USELESS ROLE' defending you've been doing you still haven't fullclaimed. I'm pretty sure someone's already asked you to do it...

and that should leave at least 2 confirmed for tomorrow
Even Satorimindhax isn't 100% accurate. If you flip Town that doesn't make all of your suspicions instantly true. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 05:56:57 PM
Have some faith in my psychic abilities. How often have they been wrong when I've been serious about it?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 06:19:38 PM
Are you ever serious about it?

I haven't full claimed yet because Zakeri was the only one I remember asking for it, and I had ninja'd that post saying that my role was useless flavour before his post, and then he implied that it was enough to "get" it, because of his past experience as Yukari, user of useless Traffic Signs in RWoS. 

But anyways, since you want it, my full claim is(and it's flavour is even more useless then Pesco's):
Rudolf Ushiromiya. Town Cool Guy. Has son and wife. I can be cool during the night. I'm serious, that's my ability. =V The PM even said that being cool won't help you in mafia at all. 

Yeah, it sounds completely unbelievable. Ask Alice about it after the game or something.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 26, 2009, 06:35:18 PM
A balli, a balli, liete venite, ninfe gradite, fior di belt?.
Or, che s? chiaro il vago fonte dall'alto monte al mar sen'va.
Suoi dolci versi spiega l'augello, e l'arboscello fiorito sta.
Un volto bello all'omra accanto sol si dia vanto d'haver piet?.
Al canto, al canto, ninfe ridenti, scacciate i venti di crudelt?!
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1r6OniHVww&fmt=18)

Day 3 Votecount - 8 hours, 27 minutes remaining.
Pesco (3) - Serpentarius, Kiro, Carthrat, Roukanken
EX NaClO_3 (2) - Roukanken, Pesco
Roukanken (1) - Affinity
Zakeri (1) - EX NaClO_3

Pesco is at L-1!

Protip: if your ability is explicitly stated as "not helping you in mafia", you're a Vanilla Townie. I thought this would be obvious, but oh well...
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 07:15:23 PM
It was obvious. >_>

I'm trying to prove a point here;Pesco is a vanilla townie, but he was advertising himself as...Town Asprin Addict...because that's what it said in his role PM. =V

I could claim myself as Town Cool Guy(Flavoured Useless) if I were going to be lynched, but for the sake of not complicating things, I would've just said "vanilla townie", as that's what it essentially is. Pesco choose the Flavoured Useless claim for some reason.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 07:26:13 PM
Congrats Sodium, you are now modconfirmed.

##Unvote

What now fellas?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 07:40:12 PM
[rumia]Is that so?[/rumia]

And only Roukan and I are here. There isn't anything to do right now.  :V

And I doubt that's what Alice was intending to do with that line.  :V

... :V(for three times the Pacman face)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 07:52:40 PM
Congrats Sodium, you are now modconfirmed.
You assume that scum aren't aware of this. They could easily get equally useless roles in their fakeclaims.

Plus I don't put Alice down as a mod who'd make a slipup like that. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 08:08:00 PM
You never know, Alice had been up for 50 hours and being tired like that might have just made the slip. He even got the vote count wrong again.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 08:43:54 PM
So you think that possibility is worth enough to remove any and all suspicion that was on Suwakodium before? (Forget coming up with more names, I'm sticking with Suwakodium.)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 26, 2009, 08:58:24 PM
I'm beginning to see his side of the story a bit. But yeah, I still need to be lynched
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 26, 2009, 09:48:15 PM
Well, the day's pretty much over anyway. I have no objections to anyone hammering Pesco at this point in time.

Right now, though, I need to go lie down for a while. I have one hell of a headache, and I doubt this game is helping.

...I don't suppose I could borrow any of those aspirins after you're gone, Pesco?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Sodium on July 26, 2009, 11:26:01 PM
What's with MoTK today? The site is really slow for some reason;it makes opening this topic and posting hard. =V

But anyways, the day's practically done, and I doubt there's much left to talk about without a flip or something. I doubt anything can prevent a Pesco lynch at this point anyways.

##Unvote
##Vote Pesco Ham(mer)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 27, 2009, 02:29:53 AM
Will update flavour later.

Pesco47 was lynched! They were Natsuhi Ushiromiya, Vanilla Townie (Town Aspirin Addict)

Yes, Roukanken, you may have your aneurism now.

It is now Night 3! You have 24 hours to send your night actions to me and Edible! Good luck!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 3
Post by: Pesco on July 27, 2009, 07:03:45 AM
     I
     I
     I
   <--    OPEN
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 27, 2009, 08:17:50 AM
Yes, Roukanken, you may have your aneurism now.
Many thanks.

*collapses to the floor*
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 3
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 27, 2009, 12:04:40 PM
I'm angry for an entirely different reason.

But I'm still angry.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 3
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 27, 2009, 11:43:59 PM
Flavour will be up as soon as I finish my final term project (some intermodulation distortion inverse-problem type stuff from DSP), I promise.

Kiro was killed last night! They were Jessica, Vanilla Townie

With 6 people alive, it is now LYLO. You have 1 week from this time to make up your minds on whom to lynch. Good Luck!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Night 3
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 27, 2009, 11:47:19 PM
Well, not much I can do other than say I don't feel any regret about lynching Pesco for now. Still feel that he was acting notably scummy for pretty much the whole game.

Anyway, since we're at Lylo now, I think it makes sense to start claiming. I'll begin: Genji, Townie Vigilante Who Isn't Allowed To Kill Anything. Seriously, my role PM actually says that if I wanted I could kick everyone's ass but Kinzo told me not to so my hands are tied.

Need to start doing a serious re-read. In particular I get the feeling I still haven't been giving Affinity and Serp enough attention. :/
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 28, 2009, 01:22:21 AM
Okay, took the time to re-read through Aff's posts and now I'm REALLY sure I looked over him too quickly.

70 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42393#msg42393): Calls out NF for his point on Nietz, saying both 'It doesn't make sense' and 'Why didn't you follow through'. Contradiction?[/url]

146 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42843#msg42843): As I already mentioned, jumps onto Donut having made no mention of him in any earlier post. This is where he deceipers a meaning in Dorian's post (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42785#msg42785) that I can't see even when I'm actively looking for it. Dorian responds by simply copy/pasting it and saying 'yeah that's what I meant'. T_T
It also contains the single point that Affinity brings up on Pesco before saying later he's fine with his lynch. Pretty keen, isn't it?

165 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43027#msg43027): More praising Dorian G as a god for ONE ORIGINAL POINT. -_-[/url]

177 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43059#msg43059): Claims that Dorian's 2 or 3 posts are worth more than Donut's posting because of said ONE ORIGINAL POINT. Seems to be overreacting a little here.

199 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43324#msg43324): Decries everything NF says, but lets him slide given the lack of a counterclaim. Need to see how he acts D2 before I can analyse fully.
Note the sudden switch on Dorian - oh wait he isn't posting enough, please post more.

234 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43735#msg43735): Tells NF 'Yeah, you really suck' but stil goes after Zak anyway over one point concerning distancing himself from the Donut lynch. Why does he say NF is scummy and then NOT vote him?

245 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43763#msg43763): More RAEG at NF, and only now does he say he's fine with voting him. Why no mention in 234, even as a placeholder vote while he was waiting for Zak to answer him?

286 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44155#msg44155): Gets his answer from Zakeri, and proceeds to be an outright jerk about it. Interesting in that he throws in one single point on Suwakodium at the end of the post, but doesn't bother mentioning anything else that was happening at the time. There wasn't even a mention of Pesco for the entirety of the day - why?

311 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45369#msg45369): Hi, Rou is suspicious for tunneling Pesco, bye. Comments on possible NK actions, which is sort of pointless considering both roles are dead. >_>

321 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45450#msg45450): Oh, wait, it was a prod. That was obviously what it sounded like when you pulled that out and STILL didn't mention Pesco. >_>
Then attacks Kiro for his scumhunting, accusing him of looking at votes and not reasons. Need to reread Kiro to see if this is any way valid.

374 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46075#msg46075): Unvotes me and proceeds to put his vote...nowhere. He spends a good deal of time criticising him but makes no effort to pressure him with a vote. Also backtracks on Dorian, saying that targets like Donut were 'more interesting'. >_>

383 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46232#msg46232): Drops his interrogation of Kiro entirely, giving a few more points to Suwakodium and again insisting that not voting is the right thing to do. Not voting Pesco I understand, but not voting at all?

404 Post Not Found (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg47031#msg47031): Trades a few points with Suwakodium, defends himself from Kiro, complains Zak is WIFOMing with circular reasoning. Still thinks that the best course of action is NOT TO VOTE, when he was fine with prodding me for information earlier in the day.

So in general, the main problems I have with Affinity are:
- His strange affection for Dorian/Suwakodium, whom he's made one or two minor points against all game
- His paradoxical behaviour D3 - fine pressure voting me, but then removes it and doesn't want to pressure vote anyone else.

It's sort of 2am over here, and I'm kinda tired. I'll look over Serp tomorrow when I get the chance. -_-
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 28, 2009, 01:46:34 AM
Actually, screw it. Let's get this over with.

76 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42428#msg42428): HEY GUYS, YOU ONLY GET ONE RVS POST. Overreacting much?
Also comes down on Donut for attacking Pesco, and for ignoring the point against Carth. Basically, the same thing Aff was doing against NF and later Donut.

101 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42654#msg42654): After Nuke melts down, proceeds to say 'you're terrible but I don't want to put you to L-1'. In restrospect, why is L-1 such a bad thing to do? It necessitates a claim, but if you're so supicious of him then a claim is exactly what you want. And I doubt any Townie with half a brain cell would quicklynch on DAY FREAKING 1.

AAAAAAAAAGH being made to go to bed because the downstairs neighbours are complaining about being kept up by...the sound of me walking. When I've been sitting at the PC for the last half hour. >_____________> will finish this tomorrow
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Kiro on July 28, 2009, 04:34:04 AM
Alright Town, Scum have probably been laughing their asses off at all this bullshit we encountered. So mad props to all you remaining Townies if we win this. Go get it done!!!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 28, 2009, 09:04:46 AM
Alright, I've been holding Zakeri as my secondary or terciary lynch pretty much all game.  Time for a full readthrough.

This (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42467#msg42467) is his first serious post of the game.  In it, he says that he thinks Donut is blatantly lying about his voting motives, and that that "might" be scummy.  Follows that with points against several people, but in this post he unvotes and doesn't put that vote on anyone else.  Flighty.

He thinks better of it half an hour later and posts this (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42479#msg42479), voting Pesco and saying that Donut strikes him as Town.

Duels with Nuke here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42515#msg42515), raising legitimate points against him.  Not too hard to do.

The post here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43036#msg43036) is a complete mess.  What gets me is the way that he brings up a bunch of scummy quotes against Pesco, then suddenly backs off, while saying in the same post that he's not going to make the "mistake of defending Pesco again."  And who does he go after?  The claimed cop.  Am I the only one that sees this as a bad thing on D1?  We had other good cases and little to lose by letting him stick around another day.

He says his vote is effectively on Nuke, but then forgets that later in the post, when he says that he doesn't know where to take his vote.  Says that he's entirely unhappy with the Donut wagon, but fine with lynching Pesco or Nuke.

Here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43056#msg43056) he confirms that he's okay going after the claimed cop, and picks up his habit of defending Dorian Sodium Doridium.

Now, the infamous bandwagon swinging post here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43315#msg43315).  Note that in voting for Donut, he cites two posts that both happened before he said he was entirely unhappy with the Donut wagon.  This is another really important point.  Inconsistency is not a town tell.  He did a complete 180 on his stance.  He also goes back to defending Pesco.  >_>

A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43389#msg43389).

The point of interest here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44046#msg44046) is the kneejerk chainsaw against me.  I think that Zakeri was looking for a way to discredit me, but hadn't come up with anything, but forgot that he hadn't come up with anything when writing this post.

Effectively says here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44137#msg44137) "I have a good reason to vote Serp in my own head, but I'm not going to share it with you."  Admits his own actions were scummy.  Raises a point against Doridium and Affinity, then says it doesn't apply against Doridium.

Here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44388#msg44388) he aims to explain his train of thought.  In so doing, he blatantly mischaracterizes my point against Dorian, points out his own self-contradiction with a weak attempt at justification, and completely backtracks on Affinity.

Back to being anti-Pesco here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45430#msg45430), now that it's D3.

More defense of Sodium here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46843#msg46843) and here (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46909#msg46909).  He seems to be trying to set up Roukanken for a LyLo lynch.  Also more mischaracterization of me.  He continues to defend Sodium's defense of Dorian for the next few posts.

Scum knows who's Town, so they know that all the cases against people other than themselves are wrong.  Rather than evaluating cases based on how valid they look, Scum only care about getting enough mislynches to win.  Zakeri's flipflopping, especially on Pesco, fits that MO perfectly.  Zakeri's defense of Doridium, more and more as the game went on, makes me think that they're our scumpair.

Now, to respond to Roukanken:

Quote from: Roukanken
76 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42428#msg42428): HEY GUYS, YOU ONLY GET ONE RVS POST. Overreacting much?

I'm not the one who said you only get one RVS post.  Maybe you're confusing me with Kiro? :V  My point was a valid one - that once you've got something solid to comment on, there's no excuse to just make an "I'm here and here's my clever way of confirming that without drawing too much attention to myself" post.

Quote from: Roukanken
101 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42654#msg42654): After Nuke melts down, proceeds to say 'you're terrible but I don't want to put you to L-1'. In restrospect, why is L-1 such a bad thing to do? It necessitates a claim, but if you're so supicious of him then a claim is exactly what you want. And I doubt any Townie with half a brain cell would quicklynch on DAY FREAKING 1.

I didn't want to bring him to L-2, to be precise.  Pesco had stated intent to vote him as well, but had not yet done so.  Maybe a bit over-cautious on my part, but I was worried that someone else would bring him to L-1, and that a clueless townie (say, Dorian) would accidentally hammer him.  Or, alternately, that he'd self-hammer.

Also, my roleclaim:  I'm Rosa Ushiromiya, town abusive parent.  I'll review the other cases tomorrow, but I think I'm spot-on with this one. 
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 28, 2009, 10:19:54 AM
I HAVE RETURNED

Anyway, picking up where I left off with Serp:

153 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42904#msg42904): 'Screw it, I'm voting the lurker.'
The problem I have with this move from him is that it just feels...not at all like Serp. Just compare this to his play in Yume Nikki Day 1...it doesn't feel like he'd just go for the easy way out like this. :/

161 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42981#msg42981): Tells everyone 'Stop talking and vote the lurker'. Admittedly the point 'don't lynch Donut unless Pesco is scum' gets him a little credit here, but still, Dorian feels like a cheap target who he doesn't really need to explain. If you don't need to give reasoning on your vote, there's no danger of contradicting yourself.

171 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43043#msg43043): Blah blah blah, Dorian should go burn in hell. This gets really repetitive to read after so long. :V

174 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43054#msg43054): 'Sparing cop without lynching lurker makes no sense'. Rambles on about how the best course of action is (as always) to lynch Dorian and let NF live, seemingly unwilling to accept the possibility that Dorian is a new guy. Why so unwilling to cut him some slack when he looks like he has no idea what the hell he's doing?

178 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43084#msg43084): Posts his 'scumhunting', but half the post is just a tirade about how this game punishes effort. For the record, Serp, how does this logic hold considering this was Dorian's first game here? Unless his teammate told him explicitly 'Don't post', it wouldn't make any sense. Then gives two (very simple and obvious) points against Dorian and says that he's done proving his case. Forgive me for WIFOM, but doesn't it feel a little too easy making a case on Dorian?

202 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43334#msg43334): Donut's giving up and admitting he can't hunt? Eh, Dorian's still worse.
Interesting how his opinion on Donut has changed from 'lynch Pesco first' in 161 to 'lynch Donut first' in 202, as a side note.

208 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43350#msg43350): so yeah my entire case against Dorian was sorta pointless sorry guys
But insists he's going to watch Suwakodium carefully. Unvotes, leaves himself ready to hammer at deadline. (Obviously doesn't get the chance because Donut gets lynched sooner.)

209]http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43733#msg43733]209 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43733#msg43733): Spends half the post defending his view on Dorian, then throws out suspicions of NF AND Pesco without bothering to vote either. Again insists he's watching Suwakodium.

242 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43759#msg43759): Some criticism of NF, saying 'yeah you probably did get doc'd' and calling him out on WIFOM, but why no vote even for the sake of pressure? Also no mention of Suwakodium.

248 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43767#msg43767): More criticising NF, but insists that he won't bother voting (not even for pressure) until Suwa shows up.

269 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43973#msg43973): Calls Pesco on crumbing, more nagging at NF before FINALLY voting (but only after NF has declared his intention to quit :V), and suddenly declares after a reread of Zak he's willing to agree with Affinity's argument against him (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43735#msg43735). Where the hell did THAT come from!?

285 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44150#msg44150): Half a post of modkill speculation, then unvotes NF because he doesn't want a quicklynch. Note that this entire time he's had nothing to say about Suwakodium.

312 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45386#msg45386): Declares suspicion of Pesco and Zak, still no mention as to why Suwa fell off his scumdar. You can't specify that you're watching a player and then NOT SAY ANYTHING about them, surely.

324 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45483#msg45483): Oh wait, Zak/Pesco makes no sense as a scumpair. Complains of Zak's flighty voting, NO SUWAKODIUM. Seeing a pattern here?

368 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45945#msg45945): FINALLY mentions Suwakodium after being prodded, and says 'I didn't bother saying anything because he's done nothing scummy'. Why did it take him so long to admit he didn't have suspicions of him, and why only NOW after his weird 'don't lynch Pesco based on roleclaim' thing?

389 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46607#msg46607): Declares that he's perfectly fine with the Zak modkill. Consistent, I suppose, but the post doesn't really achieve much besides that.

403 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46965#msg46965): Clarifies his view on Suwakodium - hasn't seen anything scummy out of him, but thinks that Pesco's iffy questions about him are somewhat justifiable.
Calls Zak on WIFOM with Suwa's reactions. Leaves with his vote still on Pesco.

So after this analysis, I'm thinking I really didn't give Affinity the proper time of day in particular. He seems too defensive of Dorian and only has minor issues with Suwakodium, leading me to think potential scumpair. That said Serp could be linked to Affinity as well given his sudden jump on the Zak wagon late D2, or he could've been bussing Dorian on D1 to get cred and make something of a useless buddy but after Suwa showed up he didn't want to bus an active scum...

ASDF this is hard let's just take the easy way out today since Alice gave it the OK

##Vote: No Lynch

I need to be out of the house in about 20 minutes. >_>

Serp Ninja:

Alright, I've been holding Zakeri as my secondary or terciary lynch pretty much all game.
Actually like I just said you pulled him up out of the blue D2 so uh

Quote
My point was a valid one - that once you've got something solid to comment on, there's no excuse to just make an "I'm here and here's my clever way of confirming that without drawing too much attention to myself" post.
How solid is 'your response is too serious, RVS is RUINED FOREVER!'?

Quote
I didn't want to bring him to L-2, to be precise.  Pesco had stated intent to vote him as well, but had not yet done so.  Maybe a bit over-cautious on my part, but I was worried that someone else would bring him to L-1, and that a clueless townie (say, Dorian) would accidentally hammer him.  Or, alternately, that he'd self-hammer.
You admit that L-2 is awfully nervous, which is one of my points. But why are you okay with Pesco bringing him to L-2?
Plus why is Dorian suddenly a clueless Townie to you? Were you honestly thinking on D1 that he could potentially mess it up as a Townie?

Okay now I REALLY need to go back later to look over other people
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on July 28, 2009, 11:46:14 AM
Roleclaim: Dr. Nanjo. I am a townie doc, however, I had zero charges from the get go, so I'm effectively a vanilla townie.

Was mildly busy lately due to school essay, so I'll have to reread a bit.

---

@Roukanken:

I still don't see what is wrong with praising Dorian to further a line of questioning against Serp, but ho well, I can only convince so much.  Also, while I did not acknoledge his bad points in this topic, his bad points were, again, pretty clearly raised by everyone else and thus I don't see why it is a reversal.  The backtrack you cite is imaginary.  And raising an original point is far better than jumping on votes and regurgitating reasoning, that much is certain.  And why am I scummy for being able to understand literature?  It was a valid point to discuss; you're not putting that into consideration.

Same goes to pesco; why bother raising points everyone else has raised?  It was fairly obvious that he wasn't scumhunting by the point of D3.

Reason why I did not vote for NF was because I wanted the day to last longer and was icky about giving him a chance to self-hammer; he did look suicidal after all.

I did not vote pesco for the exact same reason.  Did not vote anyone else because my lynching choice was with him, and you were prodded because your issue was serious; you had nothing on anyone other than pesco at that time.  I could have voted Kiro of course, but it was only his scumhunting techniques I was not satisfied with, which is far more minor.

You are also far too forward in your assumptions that Sodium is scum; you seem to be basing much of your cases against me and Serp around it.  Yes, I understand that he made a contradiction, which is scummy in itself, but that's just as bad as accusing us of not being suspicious of Sodium, if you didn't really include other reasons.

---

I feel that the number of words Zakeri uses is disproportionate to the actual effectiveness of his posts.  I have also suspected him since D2, and it feels that his D3 actions have only deepened my suspicion.  Adding to Serp's case, I think that page 14 is a scummy oddity here, not only does he attack Serp for rather arbitary reasons (saying that he had yet to do anything of significance beyond 312 is a baseless accusation), he also engages in faulty attack against Roukanken, sort of turning around is turnaround and engaging in WIFOM (as sodium said, trying to be a psychaitrist isn't very convincing here). 

Thus, he is currently at the top of my list now.  On the upside, I sense some scumhunting, especially since he did not choose the easy lynches, but the reasonings are lacking.

---

I think Carthrat has been more passive in this game than active, to be honest, especially later in the game when pesco was about, and when he could say the obvious.  I don't think he made any actual contributions in terms of questioning, and while he provided solid opinions on already existing stuff such as the Sodium debate, I felt that he could have done more.  Who he thinks is scum now seems to be quite important in my judgment of him.

---

Sodium has been scummy so far for two things; his AtE late D3 on a line of questionin I did not fully endorse, which was surprising, as well as his sudden switch with regard to Nietz on D2.  There was also Dorian, but the impression I got from his Day One actions were slightly town with a shade of uncertainty.  Even so, I like that he has been questioning people like me on issues that seem original enough, which is quite a good improvment on his previous play.

What is not satisfactory, however, is the fact that his questionings don't really seem to go anywhere in terms of scumhunting; he also seems to be easily appeased (in the case of Nietz, for example).  I'm not willing to judge much on benign AtE, to be honest with everyone, so I'm willing to give that a sort of pass.  Again, I would like to see how he follows up on Zakeri today, as well as his opinions on everyone else.

---

I seem to be getting good vibes from Serp; would need more time to reread him.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 28, 2009, 01:08:10 PM
I'm Ushiromiya Hideyoshi, town FISHMONGER! I sell FISH. On a STICK. It is USELESS. VANILLA FISH.

Gameflow is a bit hard to take stuff from. Day 2 and Day 3 both seemed to pile straight towards their respective lynches, with little of any other arguments really taking hold.

I really didn't like the line of questioning being thrown at Sodium yesterday, just as I really don't like the way Sodium himself turned around and slammed Zakeri, so I've got on-the-spot suspicion of Rou (for taking advantage of him there) and Sodium for wildly divergent reasons based on day 3. Strongly doubt they'd be buddies after that, though, soooo.

Sodium did respond to my suspicion there and I didn't get a chance to reply on the day. Some of the main points there were Zakeri's 'person X WIFOM', which looked like a demonstration of why questioning a replacement over his original's actions is futile; nothing wrong with that. The timing seemed at a point where one could toss it out without really expecting it to go anywhere. I really want to know why he thought pesco was townie and why he waited so long to vote Zak if he had all those prior suspicions going for him.

Running through Rou briefly, Day 1 Rou was as straight man as you can get; I have no real complaints with his act there (beyond both his targets then flipping town, but most people have been wrong all game, evidently, sooo.) Freebie lurkerpass on day 2 is annoying but can't do anything about it, latestuff there seems like straightforward tunneling on pesco. I got the feeling here that he was just glossing over NF's problems in order to persue his other case. On day 3, my biggest gripe is that he picked up Pesco's line of questioning on Sodium and went to town over a virtually unanswerable question. I'm kinda wondering why he's also busted out entirely new angles on people today instead of following up on any prior suspicions.

Affinity/Serp: I've lumped these guys in together because I have the same vauge feeling about both of them; that they've both been able to coast along throughout the game and managed to get attention just sliding off them. There are minor pokes here and there. Feels like there's always some people like this during most endgames, though. I'm going to have to go through them in detail later. I don't find Rou's posts helpful there, listing everything they do isn't useful. A case summary is, but he doesn't seem to have one? Eh.

Just noticed while going through Zakeri stuff that Affinity stabbed him for 'WIFOM nonsense'- to restate, I disagree that what he was getting at was a scummy proposition, and worry about people latching onto it.

Zakeri: Biggest problem I remember is his vanishing trick on day 2. I was worried on day one that he pushed an NF lynch at a bad time, that still grates, but I don't think it's major. He got into some role/setup speculation on day 2, however. This is concerning because he seems to initially act as though he's sure NF is a cop, and then turns around and plunges down on the lynch. Explanation?

On Day 3 there's a lot of hubbub over his response to the aggression on sodium that I think is rather unwarranted, as I've now documented many times. @_@

<->

At this point the only person I'm deeply suspicious of is Sodium (though I'm hardly ready to clear anyone), and even that is mainly due to the oddity of his day3Zakvote. I'd like an explanation from him on the why and when. I'm holding off going far into scumbuddy theories here, kinda want everyone to weigh in before trying to tackle it from that angle.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 28, 2009, 02:02:51 PM
Quote from: me,427
So I'm voting him because:
Donut vote at Day 1(little reason, the wagon swinger)
Other various Day points from Day 2(Kiro's 250 is nice)
General lurkiness(RL probably the cause, so this isn't really major or anything)
"Oh hey Serp, post more, while some other people and I haven't posted all that much either"
"If x were scum" WIFOM
Posting not much after coming back from 48 hours without posting(not really important as it was at the time of my vote)
+Defending me for no reason(forgot this at the time of that post)
+Zakeri didn't even say anything about my vote on him(new point)

I like how you didn't read that post Carthrat. Also, what defines "a moment where you can put a vote without it going anywhere"? I wanted it to go somewhere, but it didn't because, as you said, Day 2 and 3 went directly to their respective lynches.

And for "why I thought Pesco was town" thing:
Quote from: me
I'm trying to prove a point here;Pesco is a vanilla townie, but he was advertising himself as...Town Asprin Addict...because that's what it said in his role PM. =V

I could claim myself as Town Cool Guy(Flavoured Useless) if I were going to be lynched, but for the sake of not complicating things, I would've just said "vanilla townie", as that's what it essentially is. Pesco choose the Flavoured Useless claim for some reason.

Your entire case on me boils down to..."I didn't like his vote on Zakeri". Good for you, anything to add to that? Anything from the rest of the game?

Even lylo. Should we no lynch, or not?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 28, 2009, 02:46:37 PM
153 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42904#msg42904): 'Screw it, I'm voting the lurker.'
The problem I have with this move from him is that it just feels...not at all like Serp. Just compare this to his play in Yume Nikki Day 1...it doesn't feel like he'd just go for the easy way out like this. :/

Well, I was intentionally making a bit of a spectacle of myself to hold off an impending scumkill in that game, so don't take my play there too much to heart.

But if you think I was acting so differently there, keep in mind that I was one of the few that wanted to lynch Mr Alert, that game's lurker, too.  He wasn't my primary lynch, and he was even lurkier than Dorian had been, but I just ended up making a different judgement call in that game.  It's not like there's a standard calculation you can make to factor in scummy posts against lack of posts.  The fact that two of the three scum in that game ended up being lurkerscum was itself a factor in my thought process for this game, too.

Quote from: Roukanken
Why so unwilling to cut him some slack when he looks like he has no idea what the hell he's doing?

Because scum are just as likely as town to have no idea what they're doing.  More likely, if anything, since townies don't need to attempt to be deceptive.

Quote from: Roukanken
For the record, Serp, how does this logic hold considering this was Dorian's first game here? Unless his teammate told him explicitly 'Don't post', it wouldn't make any sense. Then gives two (very simple and obvious) points against Dorian and says that he's done proving his case.

Maybe he just froze up.  I'm not saying he consciously exploited a weakness of the MotK mafia crew.  Looking back on that post, I see that I did go off on a somewhat inapplicable tangent on scumhunting strategy.  I hope you won't call that out of character. :V

Quote from: Roukanken
Forgive me for WIFOM, but doesn't it feel a little too easy making a case on Dorian?

You and I could WIFOM in circles all week on this subject.  For something you call an easy way out, I've caught a lot of flak for taking it, and I knew I would catch a lot of flak for making that vote.  I explicitly said so when I placed it.  Now, you can read this as me trying to deflect accusations against me for taking the easy path, therefore making the path easy again.  But since I'm aware of that angle too and am pointing it out, it can't be that, etc. etc.

Alright, I've exchanged WIFOM for WIFOM, now let's talk facts.  I believe that voting to lynch Dorian was the most pro-town thing I could do at that point.  Next to that, taking the easy path or going off on some more popular case to make myself look good means nothing.

Quote from: Roukanken
202 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43334#msg43334): Donut's giving up and admitting he can't hunt? Eh, Dorian's still worse.

Which is worse, the guy that's apparently almost giving up, or the guy that already has given up?

Quote from: Roukanken
Interesting how his opinion on Donut has changed from 'lynch Pesco first' in 161 to 'lynch Donut first' in 202, as a side note.

Well, yes, the fourty posts in between there, including Donut's apparent almost giving up, shifted Donut from terciary to secondary lynch.  There are some much, much bigger flipflops you're overlooking, with much, much weaker justification from, say, Zakeri for example.

Quote from: Roukanken
Alright, I've been holding Zakeri as my secondary or terciary lynch pretty much all game.
Actually like I just said you pulled him up out of the blue D2 so uh

Uh, alright, I did sort of misremember there.  In my own defense, I was irritated, and maybe very slightly suspicious, of Zakeri before then because of his disputes with my scumhunting.  It wasn't anything worth mentioning in itself, and I hadn't spent the time to go back and put all of Zakeri's posts together.  When Affinity mentioned him and I went back to read the posts in question, I saw where Affinity was coming from, so I pointed that out myself.  I've been considering Zakeri a good lynch since then.

Quote from: Roukanken
312 (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45386#msg45386): Declares suspicion of Pesco and Zak, still no mention as to why Suwa fell off his scumdar. You can't specify that you're watching a player and then NOT SAY ANYTHING about them, surely.

Sure I can - if there's nothing worth mentioning, then nothing needs to be said.  As I pointed out before, you shouldn't give scum the courtesy of knowing which townies they'd benefit most from killing.

Quote from: Roukanken
ASDF this is hard let's just take the easy way out today since Alice gave it the OK

##Vote: No Lynch

Oh, come on...  >_>

I guess it's a valid strategy to consider, but I really don't think it's the best one.  Mathematically speaking, if we just pick a random person to lynch, our odds may be better in odd LyLo, but that's just not how it works.  As things stand, scum need two townies to go along with their mislynch to win.  Tomorrow, they'd only need one.

Quote from: Roukanken
How solid is 'your response is too serious, RVS is RUINED FOREVER!'?

Solid enough to deserve a response if you're already posting in the first place.

Quote from: Roukanken
You admit that L-2 is awfully nervous, which is one of my points. But why are you okay with Pesco bringing him to L-2?

Pesco didn't bring him to L-2.  I don't know why he phrased it that way in his post after mine, but his vote was not actually on Nuke.  He was doing effectively the same thing I was, though his reason was that he was waiting for another player's response.

Quote from: Roukanken
Plus why is Dorian suddenly a clueless Townie to you? Were you honestly thinking on D1 that he could potentially mess it up as a Townie?

Yes, absolutely.  I was fully expecting Dorian to come along and go "Hey, looks like Nuke's going to go down, I'd better jump on that bandwagon so I can blend in with everyone else!" while inadvertently ending the day.  Of course, as this was Page 4, Dorian just looked a little clueless, not scummy and fatally lurky.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 28, 2009, 03:33:20 PM
Sodium: I did read that post, I thought I explicitly mentioned you replied to me like that, hence why it should be clear that I read it. In general, I do think some of the earlier points are valid opinions (mainly the lurkiness). I'm more worried about the timing and the 'trigger' reason, so to speak.

My point is that at that particular point in the day, one could make the reasonable assumption that Pesco was a shoe-in for lynch, and thus short of something totally crazy would be able to do pretty much anything they liked and still expect that to go through.

In this case, throwaway vote on Zak + distancing from pesco lynch is the concerning figure. Pesco's claim was pretty much meaningless in the end; I dimly recall it being pointed out yesterday, but it's bizzare to take it that as credence of his townhood.

I still want to know why you didn't vote Zak earlier in the day if you had all this stuff on him (particular after you unvoted Pesco, given that you've already said you've been worried about him for ages.)

As for other stuff, calling NF a confirmed townie on day one due to no counterclaim was totally weird and not something I'd expect out a townie. In fact, this brings into light that you've been clinging closely to role-related stuff on clearing now-known townies in lieu of, y'know, actual reasons.

<->

Crashing now, will do more stuff tomorrow. Not sure what I think about no lynch, except the payoff (narrows stuff down!) barely outweighs the initiative it grants scum. Blargh. Tired. Sleep.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 28, 2009, 04:49:02 PM
Sodium: I did read that post, I thought I explicitly mentioned you replied to me like that, hence why it should be clear that I read it. In general, I do think some of the earlier points are valid opinions (mainly the lurkiness). I'm more worried about the timing and the 'trigger' reason, so to speak.
What is the trigger reason? If you mean the WIFOM, that wasn't the biggest;the biggest was his "SERP POST MORE" after he was gone for 48 hours, and there are people that posted less then Serp.

Quote
My point is that at that particular point in the day, one could make the reasonable assumption that Pesco was a shoe-in for lynch, and thus short of something totally crazy would be able to do pretty much anything they liked and still expect that to go through.
Wat? So if there's a shoe-in lynch, we can't talk about/pursue anything else?

Quote
In this case, throwaway vote on Zak + distancing from pesco lynch is the concerning figure. Pesco's claim was pretty much meaningless in the end; I dimly recall it being pointed out yesterday, but it's bizzare to take it that as credence of his townhood.
Why is it bizzare to take it as credence of his townhood? Aside from how Pesco was being an ass about it in general, I mean.

Quote
I still want to know why you didn't vote Zak earlier in the day if you had all this stuff on him (particular after you unvoted Pesco, given that you've already said you've been worried about him for ages.)
When did I say I was worried about him for ages? o.o
Also, at that point, Zakeri was at his "almost modkilled" stage. I was waiting for Zakeri's next post(assuming he had one) before voting him/whatever. And...I voted him after he made his post. AMAZING!

Quote
As for other stuff, calling NF a confirmed townie on day one due to no counterclaim was totally weird and not something I'd expect out a townie. In fact, this brings into light that you've been clinging closely to role-related stuff on clearing now-known townies in lieu of, y'know, actual reasons.
Why should I list the people I think are town? I have other people I think are town with reasons, but I simply don't say it unless it's relevant. I'd give an example if you want me to. The times I said someone is town is because it was relevant to the situation at hand, and they both happened to have role related reasons.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 28, 2009, 10:04:28 PM
Okay, I'm starting to get a little overwhelmed by the burst of WoTs here, and I'm worried that if we leave it like this it'll be nothing but arguing minute points for a week, which doesn't really help Town that much. Based on that, I decided to come up with something which is original and pretty important at this point in the game: potential scumpairs. In the end we can argue smaller points about scuminess all we want, but what matters is which TWO players are working together to kill off the entirety of the Town.
I'm afraid someone else will need to connect me to players, since I don't trust myself to be impartial. >_>

Carth/Serp
Serp makes little/no mention of Carth as a suspect for the whole game, but despite this feels the need to point out 'Pesco-Carth scumpair is unlikely' during D3. Why?
Carth lumps Serp in with Affinity - THIS IS V. IMPOTANT IF CARTH IS SCUM, as is makes it hard for us to choose his potential buddy. On the other hand he was at odds with him over Dorian and the NF lynch D1 so yeah, this is less likely.

Carth/Zak
Zak questions Carth on his Pesco vote, seems to be fearmongering them. This is especially important given that Pesco flipped Town, so the question seems designed to make the voter responsible for Townie blood on their hands.
Carth called Zak out D1 for trying too hard to vote. Later days he mostly supports him but has a slight degree of suspicion.

Carth/Aff
Aforemented clumping together of Aff and Serp on Carth's part. Has pretty much nothing else to say about him all game.
Aff really doesn't like Carthrat, actually. This is probably more of a moot point than I'm willing to admit.

Carth/Sodium
Yeah, these two hate each other. >_>

Serp/Zak
Serp hates Zak.
Zak had a little tiff with Serp around D2, but has been pretty quiet about him since. Don't feel anything here.

Serp/Aff
Serp was willing to throw Aff in as Pesco's buddy. To be fair though this is sort of a null point given that it wouldn't hold after Pesco's flip. Right now, though, they seem to be on good terms.
Note that the two of them jumped on Zakeri D2. Hmm.

Serp/Sodium
Serp was initially very cautious of Dorian but held back after the swap. Needed to be pressed to give his opinion on him. Bussing attempt gone wrong?
Sodium doesn't have a bad thing to say about Serp...ANYWHERE. Seriously, he defends him against Affinity,  (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg46432#msg46432) using Zak's attack on Serp as the spearhead for what's practically a Chainsaw...actually, I'm REALLY not liking this pair.

Zak/Aff
Affinity doesn't like Zak's case on Sodium. Then the two have a debate for a while then suddenly he drops it here. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg44388#msg44388) This feels notably unnatural, possibly too much to be a legitimate bussing attempt, especially given Affinity's insistence on waiting for Zak before doing anything else and the fact he still considers Zak a big suspect today.

Zak/Sodium
Sodium has the crappy Day 3 vote on Zak out of nowhere, plus he was practically begging for the Zak modkill. :/ Really don't see this one.

Aff/Sodium
Aff admits Sodium is scummy to a degree, but doesn't like me assuming it. Sodium disagrees with Aff on the topic of Serp here, but besides that has more or less nothing to say about him ANYWHERE, even in his most recent posts.

Again I'm getting feelings from my main scummy triangle - Sodium, Affinity and Serp. This is proving heavily irritating to me, because all I've managed to do is confirm myself as focusing on the three people I was already suspicious of. In particular this exercise helped me notice that Sodium is acting very strange in terms of hunting - he either outright hates the player's guts (see Zakeri and Carthrat) or pretty much ignores them altogether (Serp and Affinity).

I'd like other people to set out some theories as to their suspected pairs, because in the end if we find the right pair we win. After some thought I've decided to ##Unvote because we have to consider the possibility of something like a Survivor in this setup. If I had to choose now between the three I'd put my vote on Sodium since Aff/Serp buddies probably wouldn't risk saying they trusted each other during Lylo, but I really want to see some more opinions on this before I put my vote anywhere.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on July 29, 2009, 03:43:35 AM
Sodium has posted two times today and yet I still don't see any clear stances presented.  Before asking other people to add on to their accusations of you, it's natural that you should present something yourself for people to comment about; defending against people's opinions (Carthrat's) while not presenting anything for others to defend against seems hypocritical and scummy.  I understand that you're suspicious of Zakeri, but what about everyone else?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 29, 2009, 09:05:27 AM
I am Kanon, Town Wimp. Once per Night, I can't do anything because I am too wimpy.

---

Most of day one is a cluster#@!* mainly because Everyone was focusing on how Nuke, Pesco, and Donut were acting like Scum. We then subsequently spent the first three days of the game proving ourselves 100% Wrong. This basically gives everyone who commented on the three during day one a large Nulltell, since everyone who's still alive now had several points that we all agreed on. The only thing that really stands out to me is Serpentarius.

basically, I'm offset by his 153. The one where he votes Dorian. Of note, he mentions Pesco - that he's acting like his scummy self, and that he seems to be evading Rou's questionings. He then notes that Lynching Pesco would be a good idea because it would bring Valuable information on Donut and Nuke. Then he votes for an inactive person. WHY IS LYNCHING AN INACTIVE PERSON MORE IMPORTANT THAT AN INFORMATIONAL LYNCH THAT COULD LIKELY HELP US FIND SCUM!? No, Seriously, this alone signals to me that you're working for Scum interest. I would just love to see how you explain this.

In 161, it becomes apparent that your only reason for the vote on Dorian was because he was inactive. When Kiro asks why you're not including any of the scummy actions dorian produced in your vote, you respond with "Well, it's not like he's commenting on anything." Which again is akin to the definition of inactive. Again in this post, you say that Pesco would be a good infolynch and that you were willing to switch to him is Dorian's non-infolynch didn't go through.

I hate how you try to link Nuke and Dorian together through the virtue of "Risk versus Reward." in posts 171 and 174. You're right, we could choose to lynch Dorian to minimize Risk and Reward, or Nuke to Maximize Risk and Reward. But, by the End of 174, you use the idea as a Guiding rule, stating that if we're not lynching Dorian, we should be Lynching Nuke. You gave us a standard issue "Either Or" Situation. "Either Dorian Or Nuke" This is a logical Fallacy, and one that I have never seen used by a townie.

in 178 you mention that we should add other factors other than a person's scumminess when choosing who to lynch. I agree with this in part, but you seem to be putting more emphasis on such other parts. You say at the top of the post that this is why you feel Dorian is scummier than Pesco and Donut. then, at the Bottom of the post, you bring up two arbitrary points of scumminess against him. What this basically tells me if that you've convinced yourself he's scum before finding reasons he's scum. Not Scumhunting.

Also, where exactly did that Rant From Effort being Penalized Come from? Especially since it seemed to be in reply to Dorian trying to prod Donut for a legitimately scummy action.

Post 202
Quote
If there are better targets, then they should be lynched, yeah.
Why are Pesco and Donut not bigger targets to you? Why is inactivity a much bigger crime than defending each other, or giving up, or all of the other scumtells they had on themselves at that point?

Post 208 is nothing more than a giant Mod-enforced Backtrack. According to this post, Since Dorian was replaced by an Active Player, the idea that an Inactive player remaining until Lylo no longer holds water. I disagree in that it never held water in the first place.

finally, Rou's recent pressing has opened up other things I'd like to point out.

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keep in mind that I was one of the few that wanted to lynch Mr Alert, that game's lurker, too.  He wasn't my primary lynch, and he was even lurkier than Dorian had been, but I just ended up making a different judgement call in that game.
"I'm just trying a new playing style this game!" Best way to dissuade differences between a person's scum play and town play or what? Even excusing it as a different judgement call, why did you decide that lynching an inactive person took more priority over informational lynches or potential Scum?

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Which is worse, the guy that's apparently almost giving up, or the guy that already has given up?
Trick question. It's the one that's acting scummier.

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You and I could WIFOM in circles all week on this subject.  For something you call an easy way out, I've caught a lot of flak for taking it, ...
I believe you called it the easy way first, in post 153. You also said you would take a lot of flak for it, which you are. I'd like to know what you define as an Easy lynch because, from a townie standpoint it doesn't make sense. From a townie standpoint, there are only two kinds of lynches. Right ones, and Myslynches. From a Mafia perspective, however, there are all kinds of lynches. Hard ones, Easy ones, Bad ones. And the only reason someone would take Flak for an Easy one is because as the name implies, an Easy lynch is one that by default gains very little resistance.

I don't see how knowing you'd get flak for an easy lynch makes going for an Easy lynch more justifiable. Also, Pre-deflecting future claims of deflecting doesn't help justify it either.

##Vote Serpentarius
Yes, I'm that certain.

---

as you may have noticed I sort of cut off on day one. I still need to catch up days two and three, but I'm afraid there won't be too much there that can be analyzed. It's still on my list of stuff I need to not procrastinate on. As a Result, I'm getting mainly Nulltells on Rou, Affinity, Carthrat, and Sodium.

Oddly Enough, ignoring the "Pass for being too suspicious" Dorian's 120 gives me a townie feeling. He notices Nuke focusing on him not caring to be lynched, which he says gives him a town vibe, but then turns around at Nuke's "Better to lynch a no good townie than a helpful mafioso." Then tries to target Donut for bandwagoning to remove pressure from himself. It's not a strong feeling, but still he brought up important and original points that added to the discussion.

(I just got on a regular sleeping schedual two days ago, and now I'm already back to staying up until five in the morning... ;_;)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 29, 2009, 09:26:31 AM
Sodium: The trigger reason was the WIFOM, I thought, my mistake then. Still, I'm having trouble seeing asking someone to post more as a high-octane scummy thing to do, even if there are worse offenders around.

The point about the shoe-in lynch is that it very much looks like you didn't bother dropping a case until dropping said case would have no impact.

I've inferred you were worried about Zak for ages by virtue of you having... points on him throughout the entire game used as collateral to your vote yesterday. So uh correct me if I'm wrong, but you've thought he's scummy for the majority of the game confirm/deny?

Quote from: Sodium
Why should I list the people I think are town? I have other people I think are town with reasons, but I simply don't say it unless it's relevant. I'd give an example if you want me to. The times I said someone is town is because it was relevant to the situation at hand, and they both happened to have role related reasons.

I.. uh... didn't say you should? The times you said someone were town both appeared to be from role-related reasons, yes, I agree! And I think aforementioned reasons are scummy.

NF claimed cop, no counterclaim, therefore NF = town. WTF?
Pesco hinted at a role that didn't seem to clear him either way to me. You call him town based on something verrrry easily faked. WTF?

In both cases I can see scum knowing what's going on with those people by dint of them knowing, well, that those guys aren't scum, and thus slipping up by giving them too much credence.

<-->

Found one big gripe with Serp, namely how he dealt with Dorian and then Sodium. Day one had him going after him over being a lurker, but the way he spoke on that issue didn't have him doing so on the grounds that he was scum at all; there's also a point where he seems to equate the logic that says 'don't lynch NF' with 'you must lynch Dorian'. This cannot fly, as 'lynch him because he might suck' is not the same as 'don't lynch him, because he might be the key to victory'.

Of course then Dorian drops out, Sodium is replaced, Serp goes "Gonna keep an EYE ON YOU" and then... never mentions him again?

<-->

Affinity is also with Sodium on the 'no counterclaim = favour for NF' thing, which is sparking warning signs. His day one play doesn't seem otherwise scummy on inspection- I think we had similar ideas on NF in general, that tidbit aside, although over day 2 he was more reticient to vote him.

<-->

Zak.. hit the main problem I had there with Serp in his post. Huh. Need to inspect day 3 more (I'm not getting much from day 2 at a glance, just due to the way that day played out.)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 29, 2009, 12:16:53 PM
Quote from: Roukanken
Okay, I'm starting to get a little overwhelmed by the burst of WoTs here, and I'm worried that if we leave it like this it'll be nothing but arguing minute points for a week, which doesn't really help Town that much. Based on that, I decided to come up with something which is original and pretty important at this point in the game: potential scumpairs. In the end we can argue smaller points about scuminess all we want, but what matters is which TWO players are working together to kill off the entirety of the Town.

Point taken, but, uh, I hope that doesn't mean you're going to refuse to comment on the cases against individual players.  Regarding your proposed scumpairs, I only find the ones involving Zakeri at all plausible, of course.

Quote from: Roukanken
Serp makes little/no mention of Carth as a suspect for the whole game, but despite this feels the need to point out 'Pesco-Carth scumpair is unlikely' during D3. Why?

That post was in response to Kiro's post on the same page where he considered the likelihood of various scumpairs among Pesco, Affinity, Carthrat, and Zakeri.  He mentioned Pesco-Carth and Pesco-Affinity as standing out to him, and I pointed out why Pesco-Carth seemed unlikely.

Quote from: Zakeri
basically, I'm offset by his 153. The one where he votes Dorian. Of note, he mentions Pesco - that he's acting like his scummy self, and that he seems to be evading Rou's questionings. He then notes that Lynching Pesco would be a good idea because it would bring Valuable information on Donut and Nuke. Then he votes for an inactive person. WHY IS LYNCHING AN INACTIVE PERSON MORE IMPORTANT THAT AN INFORMATIONAL LYNCH THAT COULD LIKELY HELP US FIND SCUM!? No, Seriously, this alone signals to me that you're working for Scum interest. I would just love to see how you explain this.

Because Pesco's lynch would only be really informative if he flipped scum, and in that same post you cite, I pointed out that nothing in Pesco's initial behavior seemed scummy to me.  Yes, I noted that he was being a little evasive, but as I said, I didn't consider that sufficient reason to go after him.  I'll ask you a question in return, though I expect you'll ignore it as you have all my other points against you.  Why is lynching a slightly scummy player a better move than sacrificing a useless inactive one (who may well be scum himself, I remind you) and giving everyone involved more time to either redeem themselves or cement their scumminess?

Okay, now what's this?  Here, you acknowledge the point I was making:

Quote from: Zakeri
You're right, we could choose to lynch Dorian to minimize Risk and Reward, or Nuke to Maximize Risk and Reward.

But then, you completely misrepresent it:

Quote from: Zakeri
But, by the End of 174, you use the idea as a Guiding rule, stating that if we're not lynching Dorian, we should be Lynching Nuke. You gave us a standard issue "Either Or" Situation. "Either Dorian Or Nuke" This is a logical Fallacy, and one that I have never seen used by a townie.

You acknowledge what I was trying to say, and then you deliberately misinterpret that same statement to mean something completely different.  I'm not even sure what you're trying to do here.

Quote from: Zakeri
in 178 you mention that we should add other factors other than a person's scumminess when choosing who to lynch. I agree with this in part, but you seem to be putting more emphasis on such other parts.

And then you acknowledge that there's nothing wrong with weighting scumminess with other factors.  So you don't mind putting more emphasis on lurky players, yet your whole case on me is based on your dislike of how much emphasis I put on inactivity?  You really think that's the strongest case on anyone, now that we're in LyLo?

Quote from: Zakeri
You say at the top of the post that this is why you feel Dorian is scummier than Pesco and Donut. then, at the Bottom of the post, you bring up two arbitrary points of scumminess against him. What this basically tells me if that you've convinced yourself he's scum before finding reasons he's scum. Not Scumhunting.

I cited two posts, yes.  He made four post-RVS posts in total.  A full 50% of his posts were scummy.  The other two were "Whoops, my post was scummy, I'll do better tomorrow" (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42463#msg42463) and a quote of Affinity's defense of him (https://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg42856#msg42856).  There was virtually no way at all that he could have been any scummier with so few posts.  Meanwhile, you advocated lynching the claimed cop instead.

Quote from: Zakeri
Also, where exactly did that Rant From Effort being Penalized Come from? Especially since it seemed to be in reply to Dorian trying to prod Donut for a legitimately scummy action.

It came from irritation at players willing to give anyone who makes less than five posts a full clear.

Quote from: Zakeri
Why are Pesco and Donut not bigger targets to you? Why is inactivity a much bigger crime than defending each other, or giving up, or all of the other scumtells they had on themselves at that point?

I'll just refer you to my posts on the subject late D1 and early D2, when you asked me the first time and we didn't already know their flips.

Quote from: Zakeri
Post 208 is nothing more than a giant Mod-enforced Backtrack. According to this post, Since Dorian was replaced by an Active Player, the idea that an Inactive player remaining until Lylo no longer holds water. I disagree in that it never held water in the first place.

Funny how that difference in philosophy wasn't a scumtell until we got to LyLo.

Quote from: Zakeri
"I'm just trying a new playing style this game!" Best way to dissuade differences between a person's scum play and town play or what? Even excusing it as a different judgement call, why did you decide that lynching an inactive person took more priority over informational lynches or potential Scum?

I'd like to remind you that I was wrong in that game.  Surely learning from past mistakes isn't a scumtell.  Otherwise, see previous responses.

Quote from: Zakeri
I believe you called it the easy way first, in post 153. You also said you would take a lot of flak for it, which you are. I'd like to know what you define as an Easy lynch because, from a townie standpoint it doesn't make sense. From a townie standpoint, there are only two kinds of lynches. Right ones, and Myslynches. From a Mafia perspective, however, there are all kinds of lynches. Hard ones, Easy ones, Bad ones. And the only reason someone would take Flak for an Easy one is because as the name implies, an Easy lynch is one that by default gains very little resistance.

So, a mislynch of a scummy player and a mislynch of a solid player amount to the same thing?  You know, that's a more scummy position than the alternative.  After all, scum just needs to rack up a certain number of mislynches to win the game.  It doesn't matter how those mislynches are obtained.

Quote from: Zakeri
I don't see how knowing you'd get flak for an easy lynch makes going for an Easy lynch more justifiable. Also, Pre-deflecting future claims of deflecting doesn't help justify it either.

So, you took my point about how we can WIFOM in circles forever and then proceed to WIFOM about it.  Incredible. :V

Well, here we have Zakeri ignoring all my points against him and instead responding with pure OMGUS.  His entire case against me hinges on my D1 vote of an inactive.  This coming from someone who tried to lynch the claimed cop D1, and never mind the fact that he didn't even vote me for this "certain" case 'till just now, two days after the offending action.  Do I really have to say any more?

##Vote Zakeri

As for how the other players are shaping up this LyLo, Roukanken's habbit of ignoring gigantic scumtells in favor of nitpicking scumhunting techniques rears its head again.  There's a time and place for that, and it's not now.  At least it's in character, I suppose.  Affinity's been pretty clean all game, and now he's defending himself while simultaneously attacking others.  This is a good sign.  Speaking of which:

Quote from: Affinity
Thus, he is currently at the top of my list now.  On the upside, I sense some scumhunting, especially since he did not choose the easy lynches, but the reasonings are lacking.

Easy lynches are the ones most likely to go through.  If everyone you've pursued is still alive by LyLo, then you can't be criticized after the fact for harassing a flipped townie.

Onto Carthrat.  I find it ironic that he points out my lack of activity lategame when he's the one that got prodded. :V  Anyway, I don't really see his case against Sodium.  Which raises an interesting point about Sodium - Zakeri's conduct pretty clearly implicates Sodium as his scumbuddy, but Sodium's own conduct, whether you think it's scummy in itself or not, doesn't readilly fit that interpretation.  Carthrat also asks me to answer the same questions on my Dorian vote again, despite the fact that I've already answered them.  Like an echo of Zakeri.  That's not a good sign.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 29, 2009, 01:45:59 PM
Great Wall of China, Unesco would be proud, etc.

@Carthrat
Wait, you think I kept NF as confirmed townie the whole time until he was lynched? After Day 2 I threw out that idea due to "HAI GUIZE, I WAS BLOCKED". If he were confirmed townie imo, then I wouldn't have said I was cool with the NF modkill either. Now, it turned out he was block by Nietz who saved him at the same time, but yeah.
Pesco was a combination of what I thought, and guts. =V

@Serp
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF? Then you meta clear Roukan, instead of citing, his general pro-town actions. lolwut? I like how you say that Zakeri's conduct implicates me as scumbuddy without any reasons. =3

Longer post later, probably. I was just skimming posts to make this post.

If Day 4 continutes like this, we could make a text based VoWG simulation!
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 29, 2009, 02:00:25 PM
Hmm woah omgus to the max is going down here, okay. I like how Serp basically goes 'yeah whatever partners with Zak are more plausible' and then doesn't elaborate at all, since at this stage if you're confident enough to slam a vote down you should be confident to have some ideas on pairings, too. Not that Zak is really any better in this regard, but it didn't occur to me until Serp mentioned his non-opinion there.

Serp: Already answered, you say... if you mean here (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43054#msg43054) then all I see is a core difference between us in what makes a legitimate lynch, and it's not easing my concern at all.

As for my case on Sodium, consider how he took pesco and NF as confirmed town at different stages. Remember that mafia is a game about an uninformed and uncertain majority vs. knowledgable minority (i.e. scum.) The minority here knows alignments and can make that judgement with certainty, which is how his posts read. How can you not at least see the thrust of it?

Zakeri: Can you explain how you went from 'this is probably an F11 setup and here is what will probably happen' to 'NF is likely scum rar die?' back in day 2?

Sodium: No, but I find it likely you were trying to cover for yourself after the fact? What kind of question is that, seriously?

Pairingwise myself, I'm considering Serp/Sodium or Sodium/Zakeri at present, and I'm not sure why people are so quick to disregard the latter. The way I see it, Sodium loses and risks virtually nothing either hyping Zak's modkill (which is a modkill and outside his control; basically if it happens it happens) or voting him afterwards, which I've already spoken about. The abrupt fight between Serp/Zak right now is making me eliminate the possibility of them being buddies on the spot, though, and I am thinking it's likely one of 'em is scum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 29, 2009, 02:10:57 PM
Wait, what? I was hyping Zakeri's modkill? I was pointing out that Zakeri had been gone for an extremely long time, and was going to be modkilled at that rate. Why the hell would I hype a modkill? The game would've became a trainwreck right there(not relevant to my interests) if Zakeri was modkilled.

And yeah, I'm writting my post now. Might take a while though. =V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 29, 2009, 02:39:06 PM
@Serp
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF?

I'll be generous and assume you just skimmed over my post on the same page where I outlined my case against Zakeri and clearly named him as my preferred case.  I made my case on Zakeri, then he jumped on me with a really flimsy reason.  That makes his the OMGUS, whether I had placed my vote on him or not.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
Then you meta clear Roukan, instead of citing, his general pro-town actions.

You also skimmed the part where I said I was going over LyLo conduct only in that part.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
I like how you say that Zakeri's conduct implicates me as scumbuddy without any reasons. =3

If I have to put all the accumulated relevant information to my case in a single post for you to acknowledge it, you can't blame me for making walls of text.  See previous posts on that page, again.  He's been revving his chainsaw all game on your behalf.

Quote from: Carthrat
Hmm woah omgus to the max is going down here, okay. I like how Serp basically goes 'yeah whatever partners with Zak are more plausible' and then doesn't elaborate at all, since at this stage if you're confident enough to slam a vote down you should be confident to have some ideas on pairings, too. Not that Zak is really any better in this regard, but it didn't occur to me until Serp mentioned his non-opinion there.

Well, I did mention Sodium several times already in my initial case against Zakeri. :V  I'm less certain about it, of course.  Zakeri's flighty conduct and the lack of a serious bandwagon against him at any point means that I can't rule anyone out, but if I had to set down today's and tomorrow's lynches at this moment, I'd say Zakeri and then Sodium.

Quote from: Carthrat
Already answered, you say... if you mean here then all I see is a core difference between us in what makes a legitimate lynch, and it's not easing my concern at all.

Dorian made four, count 'em, four posts out of RVS, and all of them were extremely low on content.  Of those, two have notably scummy content, and two are total cop-outs.  I'm not sure what more you can ask for.  Sure, we could pull up more scummy quotes from Donut or Nuke, but that's only because they put out more posts to analyze!  What Dorian put out there was bad, in itself, and the fact that he could be expected to stay a non-contributer right up into LyLo was a factor alongside that.

Quote from: Carthrat
As for my case on Sodium, consider how he took pesco and NF as confirmed town at different stages. Remember that mafia is a game about an uninformed and uncertain majority vs. knowledgable minority (i.e. scum.) The minority here knows alignments and can make that judgement with certainty, which is how his posts read. How can you not at least see the thrust of it?

It's not that I don't see the thrust of it, it's that it's just of such incredibly small magnitude compared to what Zakeri has put out there.  You're falling into the same trap Roukanken is - picking apart the little inconsistencies in wording while leaving the big unexplained opinion swings untouched.  For example, Sodium's words regarding Nuke were "somewhat of a confirmed townie," which is a contradiction, but he was clearly trying to say "he looks townish" and just screwed up his wording.  That sort of slip-up can reveal a scum mindset, yes - as I said on D3, I didn't find the initial points against Sodium compelling, but I found his reaction to pressure scummy.  That just doesn't compare with Zakeri's conduct, which is scummy in itself.  I get frustrated when people don't seem to be seeing the same stuff I am.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
And yeah, I'm writting my post now. Might take a while though. =V

Be sure to actually read my points this time.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 29, 2009, 03:43:20 PM
@Serp:
I know that you made a case on him. You're still OMGUSing him, as he made a case on you. Seriously, 1 of the reasons you're both voting each other because...you're voting each other. How in anyway does that make any sort of sense? You may have a had a case on him, but then when he voted you, you voted him.

Also, the reason your case on Dorian sucked was because you were assuming that Dorian wouldn't ever do anything useful, get killed later, or be replaced. Someone already pointed this out. When he did get replaced(by me), you didn't do shit to continue on with your suspicion of Dorian/me, until now, because you see a supposed link between me and Zakeri. I don't buy the "I DIDN'T SEE ANYTHING SCUMMY" anymore, as you've shown that you've noticed stuff from me that you find suspicious. You're also revolving EVERYTHING around Zakeri right now(tunneling).

You cleared Roukan with meta. You disagreed with what Roukan is doing first, but then you said "he's doing what he always does". That is meta.

@Zakeri:
Nice, you OMGUS Serp, citing something he did Day 1, with little outside of Day 1.

Oh yeah, then you randomly say that Dorian's too scummy to be scum comment was town-like.*facedesk* You then basically say what Affinity's been saying all game. "Dorian brought up good original points".

@Carthrat:
I did think Zakeri was scummy for most of the game. It's just that Day 2 was NF GETTING MODKILLED ALL DISCUSSION STOP, and Day 3 was PESCO, DIE!!! I had almost no time to actually say anything, and when I did, SURPRISE! IT WAS BADLY TIMED.

Zakeri, Serp are the two I find scummy now, but I doubt that they're a scum pair, as they're trying to rip each other's necks out.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 29, 2009, 05:44:05 PM
Quote from: Serp
Point taken, but, uh, I hope that doesn't mean you're going to refuse to comment on the cases against individual players.
I have no intention of doing that, but the problem is that as we're standing right now everyone seems to have their own case that they'll refuse to budge on. By asking people 'OK, you have your suspect but who are they working with?' we get people to consider other players, plus otherwise we'll be arguing little points until the end of time.

Something I'll say here since I just noticed it - as soon as I mention that he's said nothing about Serp, Sodium suddenly does a 180 and starts screaming ZOMG SERP IS TOTALLY SCUM. >_>

Quote
Oh yeah, then you randomly say that Dorian's too scummy to be scum comment was town-like.*facedesk* You then basically say what Affinity's been saying all game. "Dorian brought up good original points".
Except no, that's not what he means at all. And by the way. congrats on pulling another 180 on your opinion of Dorian (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45813#msg45813).
Quote
Also, Dorian's posts were shit. There, happy? I was trying to give reasons to why they were shit(while not using that word), such as him being a newbie, and the reasons that he posted, but the posts were completely useless(WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY) and/or vague("that", what the fuck is "that"?) and/or BAD(TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM). If this isn't what you're looking for, PLEASE , tell me what you are looking for. Either way, I get the short end of the stick here.
Why are you suddenly agreeing with Affinity's statement that Dorian was making good points when you were saying exactly the opposite back on Day 3?

Looking at the case on Zakeri:
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This is his first serious post of the game.  In it, he says that he thinks Donut is blatantly lying about his voting motives, and that that "might" be scummy.  Follows that with points against several people, but in this post he unvotes and doesn't put that vote on anyone else.  Flighty.
This point is accepted against Zak, but 'blatantly lying' feels like misrep here. Townies would also want to avoid an argument they couldn't win mainly because it achieves nothing for Town, so avoiding an argument isn't necessarily a scumtell.

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What gets me is the way that he brings up a bunch of scummy quotes against Pesco, then suddenly backs off, while saying in the same post that he's not going to make the "mistake of defending Pesco again."  And who does he go after?  The claimed cop.  Am I the only one that sees this as a bad thing on D1?  We had other good cases and little to lose by letting him stick around another day.
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Post 123 - Seeing Rou's Comments, Rou is starting to sound like an Angry house Wife. Pesco is beginning to redeam himself by trying to explain his thought process, and since I can see how Town Pesco can act the way he did, I'm willing to back off for now.
This is what we call reasoning, Serp. Zak was doing a post-by-post, UK-style, so as he went on he started to comprehend where Pesco was coming from.
Plus it isn't like Zak was the only one who kept his vote on NF after the copclaim - Pesco, anyone?

Quote
Note that in voting for Donut, he cites two posts that both happened before he said he was entirely unhappy with the Donut wagon.  This is another really important point.  Inconsistency is not a town tell.  He did a complete 180 on his stance.  He also goes back to defending Pesco.  >_>
He explains that the reason he switched his opinion is because Donut's vote is still on Dorian, (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43315#msg43315) and the question he'd asked in he previous post had gone unanswered.

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A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium here.
- Most likely a ninja, so the 'post-hammer' point is moot
- You're misinterpreting the point of the post - it isn't meant to defend Dorian, it was meant to show that Donut was basically everything Dorian did but worse.

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The point of interest here is the kneejerk chainsaw against me.
What chainsaw? I have no idea what you're referring to here.

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Effectively says here "I have a good reason to vote Serp in my own head, but I'm not going to share it with you."
Besides how he didn't approve of your vote on Dorian ahead of Donut?

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Here he aims to explain his train of thought.  In so doing, he blatantly mischaracterizes my point against Dorian, points out his own self-contradiction with a weak attempt at justification, and completely backtracks on Affinity.
I accept this point.

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Back to being anti-Pesco here, now that it's D3.
He gave reasoning based on what Pesco had done on D3 (meta and asking to be lynched), so I don't see why this is a particularly bad point.

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More defense of Sodium here and here.  He seems to be trying to set up Roukanken for a LyLo lynch.  Also more mischaracterization of me.  He continues to defend Sodium's defense of Dorian for the next few posts.
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As for Sodium, I think he's opening himself up to be victimized by Roukanken and Pesco.
Wow, that's the most aggressive defense I've ever seen.
Though I will admit some of his later posts are overly protective of Sodium.

As a general conclusion, I don't feel the case against Zakeri is as strong as you make it out to be. There are a few points here or there, but some of these are just blatant misrep disguised as an attack ('Hey, look! He changed his opinion over the span of two days given new information onto a player who pretty much everyone agreed was scummy! That's bad, right?')

Also, on the last point of your attack:
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Scum knows who's Town, so they know that all the cases against people other than themselves are wrong.  Rather than evaluating cases based on how valid they look, Scum only care about getting enough mislynches to win.
Couldn't you argue that Sodium is equally guilty of this given his defense of Pesco yesterday? He went from attacking him to suddenly deciding 'OH WAIT YOU HAVE A JOKE ROLE UNVOTE PLOX', and went on to insist that he only hammered because the majority wanted Pesco dead. Flighty voting later in the game is worse than flighty voting early on, surely.

(In other news, please stop using https in your quotes, Serp. I need to edit the damn URL every time. >_>)

tl;dr Not that impressed by the Zak case, still have Sodium as my preferred lynch. Still waiting to see more people analyse potential scumpairs.

I'm surprised that there are no ninjas in residence as I write this. :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 29, 2009, 06:53:34 PM
Wait, what? Roukan, I was talking about what Zakeri said. Zakeri said " but still he(Dorian) brought up important and original points that added to the discussion.", and I was noting that it was similar to what Affinity was saying for essentially the whole game.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 29, 2009, 07:03:18 PM
Wait, what? Roukan, I was talking about what Zakeri said. Zakeri said " but still he(Dorian) brought up important and original points that added to the discussion.", and I was noting that it was similar to what Affinity was saying for essentially the whole game.
Then what's your point here? Do you not like this point because the source itself is wrong, or is it wrong because Zakeri isn't allowed to agree with Affinity for some reason?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 29, 2009, 07:11:39 PM
Responce post to Serp, mostly.

Quote
Because Pesco's lynch would only be really informative if he flipped scum,
So the fact that Pesco might have been town is enough to excuse trying to gain Information for the town? The main goal of town for the first few days is the gain information, not mislynches.

Quote
and in that same post you cite, I pointed out that nothing in Pesco's initial behavior seemed scummy to me.  Yes, I noted that he was being a little evasive, but as I said, I didn't consider that sufficient reason to go after him.
You see, this is why waffling is scummy. In this post, you sat on the Fence, stating that Pesco gives you a bad feeling while initially saying he's not caught on your radar. This lets you decide later what your opinion in that post was. I see this as a backtracking attempt.

Quote
Why is lynching a slightly scummy player a better move than sacrificing a useless inactive one (who may well be scum himself, I remind you) and giving everyone involved more time to either redeem themselves or cement their scumminess?
Because lynching the slightly scummy player will give more information than lynching the guy that has yet to produce solid opinions on anyone. If the scummy player turns up town, we still can determine who is scum by bandwagon analysis on that person. If he was scum, then we're that much closer to winning, since we can relate everything he's said to others knowing he had scummy intentions. If we lynched the inactive person, and he winds up Scum, then we still have little information, despite the having one less scum, and if he turned up town, then We would have NO information and a mislynch.

I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.

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You acknowledge what I was trying to say, and then you deliberately misinterpret that same statement to mean something completely different.  I'm not even sure what you're trying to do here.
Am I the one misinterpreting it? What I'm trying to do is I'm trying to present how the post looks.

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If anything, only the opposite position makes sense - lynching Nuke and letting Dorian live.  After all, Nuke has been really scummy, while Dorian doesn't have much credit either way.
You state in the very part that I presented that the only possible way you can understand not lynching Dorian was if we decided to Lynch Nuke instead. Why did you say that? Why did you say that our reason for not voting Dorian means we should be voting for Nuke?

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And then you acknowledge that there's nothing wrong with weighting scumminess with other factors.  So you don't mind putting more emphasis on lurky players, yet your whole case on me is based on your dislike of how much emphasis I put on inactivity?  You really think that's the strongest case on anyone, now that we're in LyLo?
You're missing the point. The point is I don't disagree with how much emphasis you put on Lurkiness. The point is that you don't seem to put any emphasis on Scummy posting. The following point I made in my previous post covers why I say this: It wasn't until the bottom of the post you say that you're convinced Dorian's inactivity made him scummy enough to be lynched that you actually come up with reasons why Dorian looked scummy. The Premises came after the Conclusion, which as I've said is not scumhunting. More importantly, you never got around to presenting what Dorian has done besides be inactive until Kiro prodded you on that point.

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I cited two posts, yes.  He made four post-RVS posts in total.  A full 50% of his posts were scummy.
Here's a Science Question:
Eight People are given an experimental drug that cures somethingorother.
Half of them receive pills that don't work, but nobody knows they don't work. Placebo pills, to be exact.
Out of the four given the real Medication, two of them were successfully treated. Out of the Four given the fake medication, Two of them were successfully Treated.
Does the pill work or not?

The Answer:
You don't have enough testing data to determine if the pills worked or not.
You're point that 50% of Dorian's posts looked scummy means exactly as much as the above point about the pills working 50% of the time. It was apparent more than Anything that Dorian needed more time to produce posts before we could accurately tell if he was scummy or not.

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I'd like to remind you that I was wrong in that game.
I'd also like to remind you that Town won in that game. People were able to determine that Sodium, who replaced in for Mr. Alert, was in fact Scum. Also noted that Sodium replaced Dorian in this game, and since then you claim to have had the general feeling he's been town. Do you still believe that Inactivity is given so much of a pass that it ruin's town's chances of winning the game?

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After all, scum just needs to rack up a certain number of mislynches to win the game.  It doesn't matter how those mislynches are obtained.
It does Matter how these Mislynches are Obtained. Like say, if someone was being inactive Day 1, it would be easier to convince the town to lynch that person before he comes back or gets replaced by someone who puts more effort into the game. Like Carthrat and I said before, People like Dorian are much more transparent the longer they stay alive and active in the game. They make for very good day one mislynches, but as time passes, it gets harder and harder to lynch them (Mainly because their 50% scummy post ratio tends to drop further and further towards the 20% ratio.)

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Well, here we have Zakeri ignoring all my points against him and instead responding with pure OMGUS.
Wait, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Ignoring all of your points prevent it from being OMGUS? Doesn't OMGUS spawn from reading through all of your points, and then voting for you for making those points?

And yes, I admit I've been much much more lax on you than I should of. I stated in 274 that I wanted to vote for you by the end of Day 1, and I'm certain by now that even with all of the day one bandwagons that would have been my best choice. I feel this point mainly falls onto Nuke and Pesco's shoulders for being more a distraction from Scum than any amount of help.

Speaking of the case against me, I guess I should read through it at least once. I'd do that next post.

Cut by Rou: I've been thinking about Sodium as a mafioso, but I'm generally not seeing it, even after all of these points against him. I'm still convinced Serpentarius was voting Dorian with intent on making him a Mislynch, which would in turn mean Sodium is actually a townie. I'm certain there's bussing involved in a Serp/Buddies relationship going on, Mainly in that Affinity would benefit most from disagreeing with Serpentarius's Reason for voting Dorian. The only way I could see Serp being Sodium's scum buddy is if he knew Dorian was going to replace in and wanted to give Sodium credit in case Serpentarius was lynched. I see Serp/Cath and Serp/Rou as being possible, but not likely based on the evidence I've gathered so far.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 29, 2009, 07:33:33 PM
I'm still convinced Serpentarius was voting Dorian with intent on making him a Mislynch, which would in turn mean Sodium is actually a townie.
Why then was Serp so quiet around Sodium, even after saying 'I AM GOING TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOU'?

Quote
I'm certain there's bussing involved in a Serp/Buddies relationship going on, Mainly in that Affinity would benefit most from disagreeing with Serpentarius's Reason for voting Dorian.
Quote from: Affinity
I seem to be getting good vibes from Serp; would need more time to reread him.
Not really seeing how he would benefit after saying something like this about scum in Lylo.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 29, 2009, 09:37:23 PM
Let me start out by saying I'd prefer it if you used numbers, if only because all of your links seem to be broken.

Quote
This is his first serious post of the game.  In it, he says that he thinks Donut is blatantly lying about his voting motives, and that that "might" be scummy.  Follows that with points against several people, but in this post he unvotes and doesn't put that vote on anyone else.  Flighty.

He thinks better of it half an hour later and posts this, voting Pesco and saying that Donut strikes him as Town.

Do you honestly think it takes me only ten seconds to make a post as long as that? What do you think I was doing in that half an hour? I held my vote so I could get a clearer look at what I was saying, then voted Pesco. I don't see how I was being "Flighty" in that post as you called it, unless your definition of flighty is "Not voting on complete whim."

Quote
The post here is a complete mess.
All the better to make it seem like I'm contradicting myself, isn't it?

Yes it's a complete mess, because it's me writing down what I think as I go along. I made my non-vote of Nuke before reading his copclaim, and at the bottom of the post, I explicitly stated that I'm not voting for Nuke because of the Cop-claim, and the he was the only one I felt deserved lynching at the moment. I also stated at the end of the post that I felt Pesco trying to explain his thought process was what made his opinion on donut seem less scummy - naming in that it's always easier to explain something that you think is the truth than something that you think is a lie. It's easier to mix up the details of a lie, and so people are much more vague when they know they're lying.

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He says his vote is effectively on Nuke, but then forgets that later in the post, when he says that he doesn't know where to take his vote.
This proves that you're trying to ignore the fact that I wasn't voting Nuke because he copclaimed. I said at the very point you mentioned that Nuke was the only one I felt comfy leaving my vote, and that I didn't because I agreed we should leave the cop a free pass for day one.

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and picks up his habit of defending Dorian Sodium Doridium.
I defended Dorian because I thought that your reasoning for lynching him was bad. My awkward defence of Sodium on day three comes from the bad memories I had while defending Dorian against you. It wasn't until I properly took the time to read through your argument like I did on page 15 that I realized WHY I thought Dorian was town. Namely that I've always had a feeling you were targeting him for scummy reasons and that I don't think You would Bus Dorian like that, especially if he was the only other scum buddy there.

Also in that point is where I brought up Dorian's "Original point" As Affinity and I keep putting it. Dorian called Nuke out for legitimate Scum Interest, just like I was pointing out on you in the same post you're prodding right now.

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Now, the infamous bandwagon swinging post here.
Congratulations on your first valid point against me. I've already said this when Kiro voted me for it on day two (Wait, why did you wait until today to complain about me so loudly? And you blame me for waiting this long to make a case on you.) And it's that at the time, I felt none of the day one bandwagons were good ones. I voted for Donut because as I said in that post, I felt he was least likely to be town or work for town interest. I felt that at the time, making no vote, or making a vote that wasn't on any of the bandwagons would be counterproductive. I also don't see how flipping the bandwagon away from Pesco makes me Scummy, since Pesco was Town, and Donut was just as likely to make things worse for the town as Pesco and Nuke did.

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A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium Attack Serpentarius here.
Fixed.

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The point of interest here is the kneejerk chainsaw against me.  I think that Zakeri was looking for a way to discredit me, but hadn't come up with anything, but forgot that he hadn't come up with anything when writing this post.
"Kneejerk Chainsaw"? "Looking for a way to discredit you"? Are you sure you're not doing that "I think he's scum, therefore this looks scummy" thing like you did with Dorian on day one? I don't see how my prodding you at the beginning of day two could be seen as inherently scummy on it's own merits.

As for my weird two posts, 274 and 281, I was maintaining that there was a good reason for targeting you, but then I made the mistake of trying to completely analyze Donut's wagon for scummy intent instead of actually exploring why I had such a strong gut feeling on you. I admit, it was a big mistake, and I admit, it might wind up getting me lynched and us losing the game. And yes, I did catch egg on my face for my case against affinity. Calling me out for Backtracking on affinity on that point however says that you think being acting Sure of yourself is more important than finding out what the truth is.

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Back to being anti-Pesco here, now that it's D3.
In my defense, Pesco started off day 3 by acting really scummy (316). (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg45415#msg45415)

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He seems to be trying to set up Roukanken for a LyLo lynch.
What exactly about those posts do I look like I'm setting things up for a Rou lynch? You can't just say it so distantly, and then let others go "Oh, yeah, I kind of see it."

---

Quote from: Rou
Why then was Serp so quiet around Sodium, even after saying 'I AM GOING TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOU'?
Serp Ended his reign against Dorian by saying that since Sodium replaced in, his main reason for lynching Dorian (That Dorian, if we waited until Lylo to lynch him, would lose us the game for flipping town) is no longer Valid. He then continues to Ignore Sodium as a possible lynch until people started jumping on Sodium for for his interactions with Pesco.

His Excuse for not mentioning Sodium is that he feels Sodium is town, and doesn't want to tell that to Scum so that Scum wouldn't nightkill Sodium, but then in that same post he makes a grand leap for the Fence saying His recent actions were sort of scummy, and provides no evidence for why he thought Sodium was town in the first place. Now, he's back to being certain Sodium is scum (After me of course) Which reads to me that He's not really that heartbroken over if Sodium gets lynched or not.

In short, his recent attacks on Sodium are as opportunistic as his attack on Dorian was, which is why I don't think they're a likely scumpair.

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Not really seeing how he would benefit after saying something like this about scum in Lylo.
The benefit mostly comes from spending most of his time opposing the Dorian/Sodium lynch while trying to remain neutral looking on Dorian/Sodium. This basically lets me take all of the Flak for opposing Serpentarius, while Affinity can get some town cred if Serp was lynched.

I agree with the point you're trying to make, though.

As for Sodium's case on me:

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Donut vote at Day 1(little reason, the wagon swinger)
Other various Day points from Day 2(Kiro's 250 is nice)
I know I had put myself into a bad position there, but whether I was voted Donut or Pesco, I could be accused of the same wagon swinging point. Unless of course Sodium was actually scum. In the end, it was basically just a huge gamble in my part, but I took it anyway knowing I'd probably lose.

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General lurkiness(RL probably the cause, so this isn't really major or anything)
"Oh hey Serp, post more, while some other people and I haven't posted all that much either"
Posting not much after coming back from 48 hours without posting
I still felt Serpentarius was attempting to phantom his way through day three. Serpentarius's latest post when I said that was of him saying he's endorses the Modkill on me, while prefer Pesco's lynch to go through. He hadn't said too much outside of his first post, either. And yes, I'm aware I'm being a hypocrate.

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"If x were scum" WIFOM
Again, the point was that I felt town was more likely to do "x" than scum was, but that's not how everyone saw it, I guess.

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+Defending me for no reason(forgot this at the time of that post)
+Zakeri didn't even say anything about my vote on him(new point)
Umm, yeah. Again, I was working off mostly my gut when I defended you, since I'm still hooked up on what looks like Serpentarius trying to get a mislynch out of Dorian. And Finally, I've rectified that last point now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on July 30, 2009, 03:11:45 AM
oh gosh what is wrong with all of you

@Zakeri:

Zakeri's defense is not satisfactory on the account that many of his points seem to be along the lines of "oh yes, but WHAT ABOUT THIS".  I don't like how he keeps admitting that he made mistakes, and yet he attempts to explain himself around into implicating Serp for what he said.  Also, some logical fallacies such as the 'pill' example he gave is completely ludicrous; Mafia is not an exact science, and if 50% of a person's posts is scummy, it's best to conclude that that person is scummier than everyone else. Thus, your defense of Sodium is completely horrible.  Zakeri accusing Serp of backtracking is also ahha considering his defences. 

Also, Serp's vote is not OMGUS since he already had a case beforehand.  Zakeri, due to the faulty defense, is my secondary lynch for today.

---

@Sodium

I also hate Sodium for not being very clear in his views, as Rou has described.  Also

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WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY

I would be happy if you could point how exactly this is the case.  No one else pointed out what he pointed out.

Besides doing a donut 180 on Serp, you also go ahead and accuse both Serp and Zakeri of OMGUSing each other, which is a logical impossibility.  You also seem to misunderstand the concept of OMGUS entirely; you cite them voting each other as such and completely refuse to mention anything else they have said against each other, which is what is important. 

You also dance on the issue of Dorian; accusing Serp for voting him on D1 and saying that everything he did on D1 was horrible, allowing you to accuse both Serp and me and Zakeri rather weirdly.  Lastly, you misinterpreted what Zakeri said quite badly. 

Mafia is not a spectator spot, which makes you my primary lynch for today, due to numerous inconsistencies, unless you answer things satisfactorily.  Thought you were okay for your past day actions, but today really seems faulty.  It really seems that you are trying to both Zak nd Serp everyone by jumping between fences without bothering to taste the grass.

##Vote: Sodium
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 30, 2009, 04:22:55 AM
A for Affinity Block
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WHY DONUT IS SUSPICIOUS AFTER EVERYONE ALREADY SAID WHY
I would be happy if you could point how exactly this is the case.  No one else pointed out what he pointed out.
...Well that was stupid of me. =V It really should've been NF as I was refering to Dorian's 73, where he repeats what several have already said. In my defense of my stupid ass name mixing up, I was somewhat frustrated when I posted that.

Oh, and what he pointed out was too vague/confusing to be of any use until you clarified. =V

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Besides doing a donut 180 on Serp, you also go ahead and accuse both Serp and Zakeri of OMGUSing each other, which is a logical impossibility.  You also seem to misunderstand the concept of OMGUS entirely; you cite them voting each other as such and completely refuse to mention anything else they have said against each other, which is what is important.
Serp makes an argument against Zak
Zak make an argument against Serp, votes Serp
Serp goes WTF? and then votes Zakeri, while claiming Zakeri's vote was OMGUS. That's the OMGUS vote from Serp
So yeah, while it's logically impossible, Serp apparently thinks that Zakeri was OMGUSing(not on a vote, but a case)(despite it having a case with it) him, and responds by voting him, which might as well be OMGUS because that was the trigger reason.

Quote
You also dance on the issue of Dorian; accusing Serp for voting him on D1 and saying that everything he did on D1 was horrible
What I find ironic here is that you were berating someone previously for only looking at the votes instead of the reason for the votes. The reason I didn't like Serp's D1 vote on Dorian was the reason, which was originally "Lynch Dorian, he's a lurker omfg". It then evolved throughout the game, but then there was him "keeping an eye on me", and proceeding to do NOTHING about it.

Quote
Thought you were okay for your past day actions, but today really seems faulty.
You pointed out something I wrote a couple days ago in Day 3. Why didn't you point it out previously? =3 I agree that today seems really faulty, perhaps I need more rest.
---
B for Roukanken Block. B looks enough like an R. =V
I like how you're pointing out minute points despite worrying that that's what we're going to be doing all of Day 4.
Oh, and I was just pointing out how similar what Zakeri was saying compared to what Affinity was saying. It was just an observation.
---
C for Carthrat Block.
...Woosh! He's basically managed to not get suspected on the whole day. I think. I'll do this later. >_>
---
D for Zakeri Block. uh, D=Z in ROTwhatever. Too lazy to count right now.
You sure do enjoy trying to DESTROY Serp. A common theme in your decision making process is "how will this let me implicate Serp"? Not to say what you're completely wrong, but you really are tunneling.

let's see...
Day 2 case stuff: You already explained your actions, I didn't like them, nothing really changed.
Lurkiness & hypocrisy point: I see your point with Serp, but that doesn't really help with the hypocrisy, and you've been focusing way too much on Serp for a while. Lurkiness is pretty much non-existent currently, so yeah.
WIFOM: Argued to death, still don't like, but no real point in arguing any further
Defending me: ...So you're saying that you did it on gut, and to foil Serp's plans? XD
---
E for Edible Block
Obvscum. Probably has some sort of twisted relation to Donut, as Donuts are Edible.

So I gtg sleep. Can't finish this post, and I doubt you'd want a (larger) wall anyways. I'll finish tomorrow. Also, note that I'll probably elaborate on some of the previous people. >_> I'm tired right now.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 30, 2009, 06:52:22 AM
Quote
Also, some logical fallacies such as the 'pill' example he gave is completely ludicrous; Mafia is not an exact science, and if 50% of a person's posts is scummy, it's best to conclude that that person is scummier than everyone else.
You break my Heart, Affinity. I thought you would know better.

Saying 50% of someone's posts is scummy means jack shit when they posted four times in the first half of day one and at least one of those times can be interpreted as null or even as town. I could start a game and make a post saying "Go Scum!" Another post randomly voting for the Mod, and then make a PBPA of everything that happened for the entire day and why I feel "x" would be the town's best lynch for the day, and still at least 66% of my posting would be scummy. Scum can go ahead and say "50% of what he posted was scummy" When really, he's only posted two things that could be interpreted as scummy.

To compare, I had more bulletpoints against Donut, Pesco, and Nuke half way through day one than Serp ever had on Dorian.

---
Rou was Right, I feel that going over the Smaller points will just lead us in circles, so I'm going to look over my case and present what I think are the bigger points.

I would like everyone to post their reasons for their vote (Including Serp and Affinity) in a format like Sodium's and the following

Why I don't like Serp:
-Choosing to vote for the Inactive Player instead of Voting for what he thinks will bring Information to the town.
-Finds points where Dorian acted Scummy only after Kiro had asked, and After Serp said he was convinced Dorian was lynchworthy.
-Uses an "Either, Or" False Dilemma to gather more votes onto Dorian. (Either we go my way and lynch Dorian, or the opposite way and lynch the cop claim which is a bad idea.)
-In general, doesn't seem to put value in lynching someone who acts Scummy.

Also, Sodium, about the OMGUS point... I still like to deny that my entire case and vote on Serpentarius was based purely off the fact that he made a case on me. :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 30, 2009, 10:10:42 AM
Whew, lots of stuff to reply to.  That's the downside of sleeping when everyone else is awake.  Let me try to avoid building this wall too big.  Cutting down on quote blocks helps.

Regarding the supposed OMGUS, Affinity is correct to point out that since I already had Zakeri in my sights, it can't really be called OMGUS.  If his post had completely ignored my case on him and then made a bad case against anyone else, I still would've voted him.

Regarding the supposed reasons my case on Dorian sucked:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
you were assuming that Dorian wouldn't ever do anything useful

Pretty justified.  In fact, you yourself admitted that what he had put out there was horrible.

Quote from: EX Na2O2
get killed later

Why would scum kill an inactive?  Have you ever seen it happen?

Quote from: EX Na2O2
or be replaced

I don't like to count on this.  It's good (for the sake of the game - not necessarily for the sake of the town) that you showed up, but how was I supposed to know that someone was ready to play, but hadn't signed up, on Day 1 even?

Regarding my silence regarding Sodium after I said I'd be keeping an eye on him, I really didn't notice anything especially scummy 'till late Day 3, and by then I was already on the edge of my seat for Pesco's flip and putting together my Zakeri case.

Regarding the supposed Roukanken meta clear, I didn't intend for it to be read as a clear, and I do consider it to be a (rather minor) point against him.  I just meant that it was to be expected.

Regarding Roukanken's proposed method of looking at pairs rather than individuals, that avoids getting bogged down on minor points, sure.  But there are only a few really clear cut cases of one player going out of his way to defend another.  Indeed, I cited Zakeri's constant defense of Sodium in my case against him.  We should be looking for connections, but only as a part of a scummy whole.  And we should be responding to the points against us because to do otherwise is to brush it off and hope people forget about it - in short, a scumtell.

Quote from: Roukanken
This point is accepted against Zak, but 'blatantly lying' feels like misrep here. Townies would also want to avoid an argument they couldn't win mainly because it achieves nothing for Town, so avoiding an argument isn't necessarily a scumtell.

If you've done nothing wrong, then you should be able to explain that.  Avoiding an argument because "I'm a townie and someone else having a point against me would therefore be bad for Town" is really, really weak and looks more like scummy ass-covering.  Though, Donut did flip Town, so I guess it's kind of moot at this point.

Regarding Zakeri's attempt to lynch the claimed cop, it was bad when Pesco did it, too.  Just 'cause townies sometimes show scumtells doesn't meant that the scumtells are worthless.  And I don't buy Zakeri's attempt to backtrack on his stance there - you held back your vote while giving every sign that you wanted him lynched.  Seems like you were hoping that anti-Nuke sentiment would boil over if you could convince a few other townies that they could speak out for a Nuke lynch too.

Regarding Zakeri's switch to Donut after being completely unsatisfied with that wagon before, I think you're being overly generous in taking his justification there.  And if he was really still unsatisfied with it and found my attack on Dorian so scummy, he should have said so.  I know I'm not raising a new point here - Zakeri himself admits that it was a bad move on his part, but it looks too much like justification after the fact.

Quote from: Roukanken
- You're misinterpreting the point of the post - it isn't meant to defend Dorian, it was meant to show that Donut was basically everything Dorian did but worse.

If this is so, then Zakeri would have to be affirming that Dorian's conduct was lynchworthy in the first place.  I have not gotten that impression from him at all.

Regarding my claim of Zakeri's kneejerk chainsaw, admittedly that only holds if Sodium is his scumbuddy.  To restate my point, I think Zakeri saw how I was going after Dorian, decided that the best way to forestall me would be by attacking me, but since I hadn't done anything scummy (which I maintain my vote on Dorian wasn't - debate scumminess weightings all you like, but my move was a valid one), he could only point a vague finger of suspicioin at me.

My point about Zakeri's flipflopping on Pesco is that it just seems so arbitrary.  Pesco's conduct was pretty consistent through the game.  I see Zakeri talking about how it gives him a town impression here, and a scum impression there, but I don't see any corresponding changes in Pesco's play.

Quote from: Roukanken
Couldn't you argue that Sodium is equally guilty of this given his defense of Pesco yesterday? He went from attacking him to suddenly deciding 'OH WAIT YOU HAVE A JOKE ROLE UNVOTE PLOX', and went on to insist that he only hammered because the majority wanted Pesco dead. Flighty voting later in the game is worse than flighty voting early on, surely.

Actually, yes, you're completely right about that.  When Sodium initially unvoted Pesco, I explained to him in my 368 why I thought that a flavor role wasn't enough reason to unvote.  He just kind of ignored that and kept on acting like he was unsatisfied with the Pesco lynch.  When I got back I sort of panicked over the impending Zakeri modkill and completely forgot about it.  I really should've picked up on that by now, since it's been mentioned multiple times this LyLo.  Maybe I've been tunneling on Zakeri a bit, but I still think my case on him has a lot more substance.  Sodium, why didn't you respond to that post?

Quote from: Zakeri
Because lynching the slightly scummy player will give more information than lynching the guy that has yet to produce solid opinions on anyone. If the scummy player turns up town, we still can determine who is scum by bandwagon analysis on that person. If he was scum, then we're that much closer to winning, since we can relate everything he's said to others knowing he had scummy intentions. If we lynched the inactive person, and he winds up Scum, then we still have little information, despite the having one less scum, and if he turned up town, then We would have NO information and a mislynch.

So then we should never ever lynch an inactive player because he'll never give information?  Doesn't that mean we just give them a free ticket to LyLo?

Quote from: Zakeri
I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.

The difference is that in LyLo, every townie player is vital.  There is no margin for error.  Scum are just one vote away from being able to fillibuster any lynchmob.  If that one vote is a lurker, or a player who says stuff like "too scummy to be scum," then the game really might as well be over.

Regarding the way I presented my priorities when voting Dorian, the scummy quotes were really painfully obvious and had already been beaten into the ground several times.  There was nothing more to be gained by explicitly referring to each of them.

Quote from: Zakeri
Quote
A post-hammer post purely to defend Doridium Attack Serpentarius here.
Fixed.

You're redefining your actions after the fact based on whatever motive would make you look most Townie.  Especially egregious since you then dropped it and only picked it up again in LyLo.

Regarding your science analogy, you're right that there's not enough information for the experiment to be scientifically rigorous.  Therefore, I'd vote whatever board member advocated giving us such a small sample size be ousted from office.

I also kind of suspect Zakeri of advocating case summaries just because his case lends itself so much better to being summarized very very briefly. :V  The closest you're going to get to a case summary from me is my initial LyLo case on Zakeri where I went through the posts I found scummy in order.  For that matter, you're saying this at the same time that you keep trying to raise old points against me, several of which I just haven't directly responded to here simply because I've already dealt with them and I don't want to get bogged down in ever-growing quote walls any more than anyone else - are you trying to get me to ignore your bad points against me so that they'll stand unchallenged?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 10:53:57 AM
B for Roukanken Block. B looks enough like an R. =V
I like how you're pointing out minute points despite worrying that that's what we're going to be doing all of Day 4.
How 'minute' is suddenly deciding that Serpentarius is the devil incarnate? You can't just dismiss a case by saying 'it's too picky' when it involves you throwing around your vote like there's no tomorrow.

Quote
Oh, and I was just pointing out how similar what Zakeri was saying compared to what Affinity was saying. It was just an observation.
In other words, IIoA. Nice work there.

Anyway, since I'm being asked for it.
Why I Don't Like Sodium:
- Very keen on voting Pesco D3, but suddenly screams STOP HE HAS A JOKE ROLE HE MUST BE TOWN and attacks Zakeri based on the content of TWO POSTS when Pesco had been pretty scummy from D1.
- Silence on Serp, immediately turning into outright assault as soon as it's mentioned
- IIoA EVERYWHERE
- Initial attempt to defend Dorian saying his posts were useful, before eventually saying 'Who am I kidding, it's absolute shit'.
- Likewise has more or less no comment on Affinity in any of his posts. Not mentioning people = Bad scumhumnting.

Thus I'm glad to place Sodium as my primary lynch today.

As for Zak...Oh God, what the hell is this. I'm reading through your last two walls and HOLY CRAP, YOU DEFINITELY FAILED THIS CRITICAL THINKING CLASS OF YOURS.
Quote
You're point that 50% of Dorian's posts looked scummy means exactly as much as the above point about the pills working 50% of the time. It was apparent more than Anything that Dorian needed more time to produce posts before we could accurately tell if he was scummy or not.
Uh, except that one of the reasons he was scummy to people was that he wasn't producing posts?

Quote
I would also like you to know that your point on Dorian being trouble for us In Lylo is still bullcrap. One mislynch doesn't win the game for scum. It's four mislynches. If we had lynched Donut, Pesco, and Another townie before Dorian, it would be exactly the same as having lynched Dorian first, only Dorian wouldn't have provided the town with nearly as much information the other way around. Lynching Dorian provided the exact same risk of him turning up as town as it would have in Lylo.
Except we'd ALSO be risking not getting more information from the three Townies we lynched earlier. Why is getting information from Dorian so much more important than anything else?

Quote
Saying 50% of someone's posts is scummy means jack shit when they posted four times in the first half of day one and at least one of those times can be interpreted as null or even as town. I could start a game and make a post saying "Go Scum!" Another post randomly voting for the Mod, and then make a PBPA of everything that happened for the entire day and why I feel "x" would be the town's best lynch for the day, and still at least 66% of my posting would be scummy. Scum can go ahead and say "50% of what he posted was scummy" When really, he's only posted two things that could be interpreted as scummy.
Oh God, where the hell do I begin with this. Where the HELL do I begin. Let's see.
- You automatically compare Dorian's 'scummy' posts to RVS, which is utter bull.
- Do you honestly think that on Day 1 ANYONE would try to use the line of reasoning 'His joke votes were scummy, I'm voting him'?

Quote
To compare, I had more bulletpoints against Donut, Pesco, and Nuke half way through day one than Serp ever had on Dorian.
Well, how many bulletpoints can you possibly make out of 'HE'S NOT FREAKING POSTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN UTTER CRAP'? Whatever happened to Quality Over Quantity?

I was initially unkeen to agree with Serp's Zak case given that the earlier points against him were somewhat lacking, but today he's pretty much coming apart at the seams. Reading these last few posts I'm beginning to wonder if this whole attack on Serp from Zak isn't a chainsaw to protect Sodium. Dammit, every single one of my other cases revolves around Sodium's flip one way or another. >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 30, 2009, 11:49:52 AM
oh wow

Quote from: Sodium
Serp, I question you OMGUSing Zakeri, whilst claiming that Zakeri is OMGUSing you. WTF?

Quote from: Sodium
@Zakeri:
Nice, you OMGUS Serp, citing something he did Day 1, with little outside of Day 1.

Quote from: Sodium
Serp makes an argument against Zak
Zak make an argument against Serp, votes Serp
Serp goes WTF? and then votes Zakeri, while claiming Zakeri's vote was OMGUS. That's the OMGUS vote from Serp
So yeah, while it's logically impossible, Serp apparently thinks that Zakeri was OMGUSing(not on a vote, but a case)(despite it having a case with it) him, and responds by voting him, which might as well be OMGUS because that was the trigger reason.

All those quotes are in consecutive order, and Sodium goes from 'SERP Omgused ZAK how dare you accuse zak of omgusing you' to 'ZAK you omgused SERP' back to 'It is ILLOGICAL to think that ZAK omgused SERP.'

The inconsistencies here are so rapid-fire that I'm now positive he's scum struggling to find something to say and not even really thinking about serious casemaking; even his latest post seems to be mostly drawn from the opinions of others.

For that matter, it's kinda rocked my belief that Sodium is buddies with one of Zak/Serp at this point... although the other options still seem less likely. Affinity has slammed a vote on him (makes pairing doubtful!) and that only leaves Rou to be a buddy, and at this point I doubt Rou's scum in general.

<->

Quote from: Serp
You're falling into the same trap Roukanken is - picking apart the little inconsistencies in wording while leaving the big unexplained opinion swings untouched.  For example, Sodium's words regarding Nuke were "somewhat of a confirmed townie," which is a contradiction, but he was clearly trying to say "he looks townish" and just screwed up his wording.  That sort of slip-up can reveal a scum mindset, yes - as I said on D3, I didn't find the initial points against Sodium compelling, but I found his reaction to pressure scummy.  That just doesn't compare with Zakeri's conduct, which is scummy in itself.  I get frustrated when people don't seem to be seeing the same stuff I am.

I don't get this. You're going 'I don't see your case. Ok, actually I do, and it's legitimate, but mine's still better because um yours is just details!' That's a bit different from 'there is no case', which is what I got from you earlier.

There's also this tidbit-
Quote from: Serp
So then we should never ever lynch an inactive player because he'll never give information?  Doesn't that mean we just give them a free ticket to LyLo?

An inactive player can lose that status by talking. A truly inactive player will also just get modkilled. Otherwise, they're forced to talk, forced to at least have some position on lynches, and it becomes much easier to suss out their alignment. It's very hard to do so accurate in day 1, but neccesity forces them to post more as time goes by. 'Let live on day 1' != 'Let live forever.'

I'm finding Zak's summary on Serp to be pretty on the money with regard to the twisted logic and the ignorance, which I've already mentioned. I really wish more people would take the time to just write a tl;dr version of their cases; Serp's reluctance to do so is boggling. If you must write a WoT, surely it's not hard to summarize a case?

If you can't do that, that's the time to seriously consider if you actually have a case to summarize at all, as opposed to what amounts to trivia. Frankly, it should be easy to do. >_>

<->

For my part, I'm leaning more towards the Serp/Sodium scumteam theory than Zak/Sodium. Summary~

-Essentially, Serp's attitude with Dorian early on feels like a buddy throwing up his hands, followed by a quick escape. His logic on why we should lynch a lurker day 1 was also pretty horrible.
-After the replacement, he then never mentions him again.

-Meanwhile, Sodium gave now-dead townies far too much credence on trivial matters at the time, later reversing his opinion only when it's really being shoved in his face that his position is unteneble.
-Likewise, his late posts day 3 on Zakeri give an indication that he thought the guy was scummy, but he waited an awfully long time to bring it up and only did so some time after he had a bad excuse to clear someone.

-Today, both of them seem to have trouble keeping their thoughts straight, i.e. Sodium over who's OMGUSing who, Serp over the legitimacy of the case on Sodium.

-I'm also very concerned with how Sodium has been posting today in general (moreso than Serp); I'm still not really sure who he favors as scummy, if anyone, and it's a bit late in the day for summarizing posts. I'm not sure he's tried to hunt at all, and his replies to pokes at him often seem to be answering other queries entirely than the one's presented, or attributing stances to his opponents (i.e. me) that don't actually exist.

I'm about ready to bite the bullet and drop a second vote on Sodium. Gonna sleep first, though, but he's my favoured lynch today as well.

<->

Rou: elaborate on Zak 'coming apart at the seams' and why he's somehow much worse than Serp at this point. I'm seeing more connective vibes between Serp and Sodium than Zak and Sodium.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 12:12:43 PM
Rou: elaborate on Zak 'coming apart at the seams' and why he's somehow much worse than Serp at this point. I'm seeing more connective vibes between Serp and Sodium than Zak and Sodium.
Half of what he's spouting is just plain logical fallacy, things like 'Lynching lurkers is bad because it means they don't get to stop being lurkers' and 'Just because half your posts are scummy doesn't mean anyone has any reason to suspect you if you're lurking'. And THIS is the guy who was complaining yesterday about how we didn't use Occam's Razor enough!

I'm not necessarily saying that Zak is scummier than Serp, but he's risen up a good deal on my list of Potential Sodium Buddies. Serp still seems like a much more likely buddy though given his 'I'M WATCHING YOU VERY CAREFULLY oh wait no i'm not' attitude and Sodium's corresponding 'Ho hum, Serp looks pretty good to me OMFG SERP IS OBVSCUM DIE'.
In particular, the move that really makes me unsure of the Sodium/Zak pair was Sodium's sudden Zak vote on D3. At this point Pesco was pretty much set to be lynched anyway, so what would Scum!Sodium gain from voting his buddy when there's already a perfectly good mislynch set up?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 30, 2009, 01:56:26 PM
La luce che zampilla dall'orizzonte trasforma a poco a poco il colore del cielo.
Ah! Diventa pi? luminoso, il mondo che hai lasciato.
Io continuer? a viver qui, per realizzare in futuro il tuo ultimo sussurro, la tua preghiera.
Per quanto viaggio, in nessun luogo potr? pi? incontrarti.
Ma nel mio coure, la tua presenza ? certa.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0uZ5PkQHd4&fmt=18)

Vote Count - 4 days and 10 hours remaining
Serpentarius (1) - Zakeri
Zakeri (1) - Serpentarius
EX NaC_6H_5CO_2 (1) - Affinity

Not voting: Roukanken, Carthrat, EX NaC_6H_5CO_2

Town is in LYLO.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 30, 2009, 03:39:28 PM
Quote from: Roukanken
I was initially unkeen to agree with Serp's Zak case given that the earlier points against him were somewhat lacking, but today he's pretty much coming apart at the seams. Reading these last few posts I'm beginning to wonder if this whole attack on Serp from Zak isn't a chainsaw to protect Sodium. Dammit, every single one of my other cases revolves around Sodium's flip one way or another. >_>

Wait, a chainsaw is when Townie X makes a case on Scum Y, and Scum Z attacks Townie X to distract him into dropping his case, right?  'Cause if we've been using different terminology all this time, I think that would explain some misunderstandings.

Also, what do you mean your cases revolve around Sodium's flip?  From here it looks like you're confident enough to pick targets based on the likelihood of scumpartnership.

Quote from: Carthrat
I don't get this. You're going 'I don't see your case. Ok, actually I do, and it's legitimate, but mine's still better because um yours is just details!' That's a bit different from 'there is no case', which is what I got from you earlier.

I didn't mean that I literally didn't see a case.  I meant that it was weak and, well...  just details.  I had missed the significance of Sodium ignoring my point about Pesco's roleclaim, but even with that, it's not much.  His Day 2 conduct was pretty clean, and he did some self-contradictory flailing when prodded on Day 3.  In fact, I'm finding his LyLo conduct worse than any of that.

Alright, his first post of LyLo, he quotes his reasoning for his Zakeri vote.  Regarding that Zakeri vote, I consider it a nulltell.  Votes can be broken down into three categories.  There's votes on a bandwagon late in the day, which mean little, because the Town has generally settled on its lynch by then.  There's case votes early in the day which mean lots, because they're the most likely to lead to a fatal bandwagon.  Then there are throwaway votes late in the day which don't really have any chance of doing anything.  Sodium's vote against Zakeri at 407 is one of those, and it could mean anything.  Furthermore, he says that his biggest reason for the vote was because he didn't like Zakeri's point against me.

So he goes into LyLo like that.  He also says this a couple posts later:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
Why should I list the people I think are town? I have other people I think are town with reasons, but I simply don't say it unless it's relevant. I'd give an example if you want me to. The times I said someone is town is because it was relevant to the situation at hand, and they both happened to have role related reasons.

Then he makes this point against me, on this very page:

Quote from: EX Na2O2
It then evolved throughout the game, but then there was him "keeping an eye on me", and proceeding to do NOTHING about it.

He says "You shouldn't have to say who you don't think is scummy," yet calls me out a few posts later for not explicitly saying that I found his play unscummy.  That makes no sense, and seems kind of opportunistic.  Meanwhile, his only criticism of Zakeri is "Don't play so rough with Serp."  And he's made no opportunity to move forward with his supposed Zakeri case from D3.

So...  Judging from Zakeri's earlier play and Sodium's LyLo play, I don't think a Zakeri-Sodium pair is unlikely at all.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 04:07:02 PM
Also, what do you mean your cases revolve around Sodium's flip?  From here it looks like you're confident enough to pick targets based on the likelihood of scumpartnership.
Basically what I'm saying is that I've gone beyond 'is X scum' and expanded into 'What are the odds of X being Sodium's buddy?'. Sodium is the point from which all of my cases currently expand, to be honest.
The irritating thing is that Sodium's managed to set himself up as a likely buddy to yourself, Affinity and Zakeri. So tomorrow is basically going to be a matter of which buddy is the real one. :V

Quote
Furthermore, he says that his biggest reason for the vote was because he didn't like Zakeri's point against me.
Does that make THIS vote a chainsaw defending Serp from Zak? When Zak made a chainsaw defending Sodium from Serp? Oh god, my brain hurts.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 30, 2009, 04:36:27 PM
Well, you're not going to find scum by linking me with anyone, because I'm not scum

Serp sure does love being confusing.

Roukan sure does love focusing on only a single player at all times.

Carthrat sure does love popping in and giving nothing new.

Affinity sure does love not existing.

Zakeri sure does love pissing off almost as many people as I did.

Random Wild Guess At Scumpair Based On Nothing: Carthffinity. I'd laugh if this actually is the scumpair.

And I don't feel like typing a lot if it's just going to be ripped apart.

I doubt that this post will help my situation though.

Look, it's a fence in a wall of walls.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 04:43:57 PM
Sodium sure does love not defending himself.

Okay, seriously, are you just giving up now?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 30, 2009, 05:06:50 PM
Nah, I'm not giving up. Just a bit tired of making long posts that get countered by LONGER posts.

I could defend myself, but in all honesty, people would just tear it apart, or berate me for not doing anything except defend myself. I know that this is a false dilemma, but realistically, I doubt anything I do won't lead to those or something equally bad for me.

So, Roukan, I heard you like tunneling. You could, you know, look at other people without relating everything to me(perhaps you could relate stuff to OTHER PEOPLE! Or maybe the lack of any relation is the largest). If you still feel I'm PRIME LYNCH after doing that, then have fun voting me.

tl;dr: Stop using me as a Pesco replacement. A Frog is not a Rabbit.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 05:20:23 PM
I've made plenty of points about Zakeri, but I still feel you're a better target. Plus I've already said plenty about Affinity and Serp today. Carth is seeing pretty much everything I'm seeing, plus I can't really connect him to anyone as a buddy.

Quote
tl;dr: Stop using me as a Pesco replacement. A Frog is not a Rabbit.
So, so tempted to call AtE on this.

Seriously, does anyone have any objections to lynching the guy who isn't trying to defend himself anymore? Not speaking up for yourself is a pretty anti-Town action, IMO. >_>
Because if not, I'm ready to vote at any time.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 05:37:54 PM
EBWOP: You know what? Screw it. The whole 'I'm tired of defending myself' shtick is the last straw.

##Vote: Sodium
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 30, 2009, 05:39:15 PM
But all your doing is relating everything back to a single person. You could consider other scumpairs that don't include me. You and Serp are doing this, although Serp is doing it with Zakeri instead of me. It's tunneling.

Anyways, there are 4 Days left. No need for town to lose just because you think I've given up. I'm actually reading the stuff, although just not commenting because there's nothing I can comment on right now.

Also, I note that Affinity in your "Three people I'm suspicious of" has been replaced by Zakeri. Without any mention of Affinity in your posts at all. And Carth might as well just be copying your base thoughts, then digging up whatever proof you haven't said yet.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
But all your doing is relating everything back to a single person. You could consider other scumpairs that don't include me. You and Serp are doing this, although Serp is doing it with Zakeri instead of me. It's tunneling.
I've already considered every possible scumpair. (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg48826#msg48826) The only ones that seem relatively viable to me are You/Aff, You/Serp, You/Zak, Serp/Aff (which is less likely based on their declared trust of each other - stupid move for scum to make especially in Lylo) and possibly Serp/Carth (their debate during D1 over Dorian seems far too early for this).

Quote
Anyways, there are 4 Days left. No need for town to lose just because you think I've given up. I'm actually reading the stuff, although just not commenting because there's nothing I can comment on right now.
Well get commenting, then. You're not going to improve your position by saying 'I'm reading, gimme a little time'.

Quote
Also, I note that Affinity in your "Three people I'm suspicious of" has been replaced by Zakeri. Without any mention of Affinity in your posts at all.
He hasn't done anything D4 that I particularly accrue as scummy, unlike Zak.

Quote
And Carth might as well just be copying your base thoughts, then digging up whatever proof you haven't said yet.
I could accuse you of doing the same with the case on Zakeri.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 30, 2009, 06:32:59 PM
Huh, Affinity does need to exist more. He's had three posts in Day 4. All three are garbage in terms of content.

First post(469):
"I Don't want to raise points everyone else put!"
"Why are you targeting me just because I don't hate Sodium?"
"I feel that the number of words Zakeri uses is disproportionate to the actual effectiveness of his posts."
"*Uses lots of words without much effect*"

"Carthrat's been lurking, but I'll just call it him being Passive. He also needs to do more stuff"
"Generic Why Sodium is scummy"
"Giving Sodium a Pass"
"Oh, and Serp is a pretty cool guy"

Second Post(476):
"SODIUM, STOP DEFENDING AND DO SOMETHING ELSE"
"Generic why Sodium is scummy"
"Who else are you suspicious of?"

Third Post(491):
"Why all of Zakeri's defenses suck"
"Oh hey, Zakeri is defending that guy I defended. Half of that guy's posts were scummy. THAT GUY IS SCUMMY! It's fine when I defended him, but when Zak does it, that's no good"
"Sodium is not clear"
"Generic why Sodium is scummy"
"Sodium, you're defending Dorian while saying that all his posts sucked"
"*Has defended Dorian despite how he said that he said Dorian was scummier then most*"
"Sodium was fine until LyLo, where he turned scummy."
"*Points out stuff from previous days*"


So yeah. You sure your looking hard, Roukan? He's been contradictory, and his general content level has been low. He's also had almost no opinion outside of me and Zakeri since his first post in Day 4. And even then, most of the first post was answering you, and opinions on me and Zakeri.

Just because I do it(apparently) doesn't mean I can't bring it up. I'm already a hypocrite apparently, so being a bigger one right now isn't very high on my list of concerns.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 07:13:22 PM
You want to know why I'm tunneling you, Sodium? Because it may as well be you as much as anyone.

Honestly, if I wanted to, I could probably make a decent enough case on anyone today. You and Zakeri are both spewing utter crap, IIoA and logical fallacies respectively. Serp was the coward who decided the only smart thing to do on D1 was to target the lurker because obviously D1 is the only day you can show suspicion of lurkers. Affinity is lurking horribly today, posting nothing but HEY THESE PEOPLE ARE SCUMMY FOR REASONS OTHER PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED, YOU'RE ALL IDIOTS'. Carth is practically riding the coattails of the Sodium wagon. I'm tunneling Sodium and never letting go, no matter what other people say to me.

But that's because that's all I know how to do. If I wanted to I could listen to other cases, but then I'd just be sitting there wondering 'Ooh, what if I'm wrong? What if it's Carth instead? Or maybe it's Zak, oh, but what about Serp, and I'm forgetting Sodium and oh god WHAT THE HELL AM I MEANT TO DO!?' A little part of me wants to say it's a Carth/Aff team for being so passive today, but another part wants to accuse Sodium/Zak for being too aggressive towards each other, another wants to aim at Sodium/Serp for HEY I'M WATCHING YOU wait not really...I'm just picking my opinion and running with it.

This is why I hate Lylo with a passion, because Town is walking a tightrope from start to finish. The tension is absurd, and here I am with 5 suspects and no way of deciding who's the worst. Not even so much as a cleared or even semi-cleared player to follow the lead of.

So FUCK YOU, SCUMTEAM. All of us are sick to death of this round because we're basically walking into a 6-player Lylo with 6 suspects. We get a week to sit and panic about all the possible ways the scum could be screwing us over, and given that there's no-one we can give even a half-decent pass to it's paranoia at its worst.

tl;dr I'm pretty sure I'm wrong whatever I do, so I may as well be wholehearted about it. Unless someone clears Sodium more or less completely or proves another player to be the devil incarnate I'm keeping my vote where it is. This game is dragging on for too long with no real progress on anyone's part, with Town getting screwed over at every turn, and I'm taking one last stab at doing something about it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but you'll need to prove it to me before I change my mind.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on July 30, 2009, 11:08:12 PM
@Sodium:

Sodium is laughable for blatant straw-mans and stupid contradictions in the nick of time.  Most of what you raised are good points carciatured to look bad; you indeed did have to stop defending yourself and start making cases.  Furthermore, I'm against Zakeri defeding you on D2 and 3, NOT on D1.  I could defend against all the points you have raised, but really, there's no need to because they are all blunt pencils.  For example, when did I say this?

Quote
"*Has defended Dorian despite how he said that he said Dorian was scummier then most*"

Didn't I already say that I was using his original point against Serp?  And also,

Quote
"Sodium, you're defending Dorian while saying that all his posts sucked"

Isn't this horrible logic-wise?

Your credibility after this post (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg49628#msg49628), a sharp turn of contrast, is also minuscle and not worthy of consideration.  Flailing is bad, I guess.  And lastly, I can't possibly focus on everyone; I focused on the two people I am most suspicious of, you and Zakeri.  I am bringing out some original points especially on my evaluation of Zakeri's posts, e.g here (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg49590#msg49590) and for the others, there is a limit to what you can find scummy; sometimes everything is already raised and you can't do better than to concur.  Haven't you been doing exactly the same?  And haven't you been considering on Zak and Serp only before the post you last made, merely defending against everyone else?

So yeah, garbage post, which raises his scuminess since he is raising bad points in an attempt to make himself look better.

Same to Rou, who is also rather horrible at his appeals to emotion, making one whole post for the purpose of expressing his discontent.  Using the word 'we' is also rather socialist, I think, which is ironic because he makes himself to be pretty important in that post.

---

@Serp:

Serp seems quite fine to me.  The only thing that is worthy of concern to me is his posts relating Dorian, especially his opinion on Sodium afterwards that doesn't seem quite clear.  He made have made a false promise on Sodium, but I'm not inclined to accuse him as scummy for it contrary to everyone else, because he has been making cases against people he thought he was scummy from D2 and D3, and that is enough.  I don't think Sodium did anything particularly scummy up until late D3, where he sudddenly vomited; he was particularly active in questioning till then, though.  He didin't say much of Kiro either, for example, after D2, and having the entire case based around that promise is rather contradictory.

Serp, could you summarize as to what you think of Sodium now?

Other than that, some of the points he raised on Zakeri, I find rather null, especially the one about him fitting into scum behavior, and more of due to emotion than anything else.  But in any case, he seems to be 'winning' the Zak v Serp debate in my opinion.

---

@ Zak:

I shall go all Dorian and refer you to Rou's post.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 30, 2009, 11:22:49 PM
Quote
Using the word 'we' is also rather socialist, I think, which is ironic because he makes himself to be pretty important in that post.
I just don't understand how Town can really be enjoying this, since it's such a precarious setup and we have no real concrete suspects anywhere. By 'we' I assumed that everyone else was having as rough a time of this as I was. Am I wrong?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 30, 2009, 11:48:21 PM
Quote
The difference is that in LyLo, every townie player is vital.  There is no margin for error.  Scum are just one vote away from being able to fillibuster any lynchmob.  If that one vote is a lurker, or a player who says stuff like "too scummy to be scum," then the game really might as well be over.

The point is that four mislynches are four mislynches. It doesn't matter in what order they appear in. Using the Hypothetical that Dorian/Sodium is town, What exactly would be the difference between lynching Donut for not scumhunting, Having Nuke forcibly Drop out, Letting the Lynch land on Pesco, and then Lynching Sodium, Versus Lynching Dorian, Having Nuke forcibly Drop out, Lynching Donut for not scumhunting, and then letting the lynch land on Pesco? Both Scenarios end with the town losing for the exact same reason. We take the same risk of Dorian/Sodium being town as we do in lylo.

Finally, why is it exactly that you're unwilling to make a list of points you feel are solid against me? you say you agree that arguing over small points is useless, yet you stand by your belief in the case on me as nothing more than a bunch of small points put together. Why is that?

Quote
Does that make THIS vote a chainsaw defending Serp from Zak? When Zak made a chainsaw defending Sodium from Serp? Oh god, my brain hurts.
Oh, for the love of Lady Yasaka.

Last time I checked, we've spent the entire game so far Sorting out our Day 1 Lynches (180). (http://www.shrinemaiden.org/forum/index.php?topic=1128.msg43096#msg43096) Stop throwing around the word Chainsaw like we're any closer to finding scum than we were then.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 31, 2009, 12:21:23 AM
Using the Hypothetical that Dorian/Sodium is town
You realise that assuming this makes your theory absolutely pointless, right? Because if we can assume he's Town we obviously won't want to lynch him.

But taking your example to three kills, there are apparently only two ways we could have made it here to Day 4:
- Lynch Dorian, NF drops, lynch Donut
- Lynch Donut, NF drops, lynch Pesco

Assuming the Mafia hits NF, Nietz and Kiro in that order in both instances (again a big ask) the difference is who has survived - in the first example it's Pesco, in the second it's Dorian/Sodium. But on top of that the path we didn't take gives us more chance to examine Donut's play, and therefore possibly decide whether or not he's scum.

Your logic is bad because it assumes that new information we attain in new days is completely irrelevant and we'll keep lynching the same people anyway. After we lynch Dorian it doesn't matter what we learn, we're apparently going to lynch Donut whatever happens and we'll learn absolutely nothing new from this turn of events.

So yes, the order of these lynches is actually very important, because no lynch is set in stone.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 12:41:29 AM
I live anew!.. and... Man, this's ridiculous on so many levels. I've been considering the case on Sodium from the start of the day. I'd indeed be lying if I said that what Rou had to say hadn't reinforced my opinion, that's how discussion frequently goes?

It's like people are falling apart simultaneously, too. Sodium's getting all 'screw it I don't care' and doesn't seem to be approaching this from the 'if I get lynched I LOSE THE GAME' perspective that a townie should. Rou's managed to utterly destroy the cool image I've always had of him, and that's kinda weird because he's not really under attack or anything, though I do get the LYLO combat stress angle. I suspected a ploy out of him, but would scum-Rou actually think it's necessary to bust out the AtE as part of some manuever the way today has been going? I sorely doubt it. @_@

##Vote: Sodium With two votes already on Sodium the die is pretty much cast here. More to the point, I'm not seeing anything but 'fuck this guys I'm outta here' from his latest posts and that's not doing anything to change my mind. If Rou and/or Affinity are the scum in this train, kudos to them, I haven't seen it.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 31, 2009, 12:53:02 AM
So basically, everything I've said is shit because part of my case relies on people not wanting to lynch Sodium for reasons similar to why we wanted to Lynch Pesco, Nuke, and Donut? I guess the only way around this is to implicate the people who wanted to Lynch Pesco and Nuke. Oh wait, that was everyone.

If the Town is this backed up into a corner, there's really nothing left to do but fire at the dart board and congratulate scum when we land on another townie.

##Unvote: Serpentarius
##Vote: Sodium

Hammer

You can yell at me if you want for this switch, but the fact is Sodium's lynch is all but happened, and I'm really giving myself too much of a hernia trying to explain my thoughts.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Edible on July 31, 2009, 12:53:43 AM
Hammer.

STFU.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 31, 2009, 04:41:29 AM
And everything's going to keep happening like this until you accept that I exist and believe in magic~ Isn't it wonderful? Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7x4hsKjyFk&fmt=18)

As the days grew on, the amount of people still alive progressively dwindled. Nevertheless, in-between periodic re-enactments of Richard Jeni's comedic acts (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b58E_0NiY50), they still did not give up hope, believing they they could beat the witch Beatrice at her own game.

Suddenly, out of nowhere, Kanon spotted a golden butterfly sitting on Hideyoshi's head. It promptly flew away, but he knew what this meant.

"Guys, everyone. The person you're not talking to is Hideyoshi. It's really Beato herself, disguised. I had proof. Trust me on this."

"What? How could I be hidden as Beatrice? We look nothing alike. Besides, how could I have given the letter to Maria when I wasn't around then? You have it all wrong, nobody will believe you anyway."

Turns out nobody did, because they were too worried about a different member of the party, Rudolf.

"I knew it was you! You just wanted all the gold, to save your company from financial ruin! You wouldn't let anything stand in your way, even other family members! You should be ashamed of yourself."

"Who else could it be? He's obviously the only person who was around when the murders occured, he has convenient excuses for being there, or for not being with the rest of us at those times, and in general he's a very sneaky, shady guy. I agree, he's quite likely behind it all."

"Guys, guys, let's not be too hasty", Rudolf smiled and spoke, just as Hideyoshi agreed with Genji and Nanjo, who had begun the attack on Rudolf.

Finally, among all the tension, Kanon, true to his name, decided to wimp out and submit to Beatrice's terms. Rudolf Ushiromiya was the guilty party. Was this true? Everyone's fate hung in the balance.

Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Wrong again! And you know what they say about being wrong too many times in chess and life and death! It tends to shorten your life expectancy, greatly!

Everyone was stunned as another stake embedded itsself firmly in Rudolf's  leg, just as he fell over dead.

Everyone was even more stunned as a cloud of butterflies appeared around Hideyoshi, who then promptly revealed himself to be Beatrice.

"Looks like you're a worse chess player than you claim to be, Nanjo", insuinated Genji.

"Shut up", retorted a shocked Nanjo. "This was not what I was expecting to happen!"

Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Surprise! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6QRFyyZGc0&fmt=18)

You all have been such...charming and entertaining hosts. But now it's time for this all to end. Since I won it on my terms, I get to do whatever I want~

"Uu-! And the door to the golden land will finally be open!"

That's right, Maria. We'll all be in the golden land now. All, except for the losers of this game, for it was a game with great stakes at hand, and thus, both great winnings and great penalties.

Sodium Aspartate, AKA EX NaC_4H_6NO_4, Rudolf Ushiromiya - Vanilla Townie, lynched D4!
Zakeri, Kanon - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4
Roukanken, Genji - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4
Affinity, Nanjo - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4

The scumteam of:
Carthrat, Hideyoshi Ushiromiya, but ACTUALLY Bernkastel, Scum Governor
and
Serpentarius, Rosa Ushiromiya, but ACTUALLY Beatrice, The Golden Witch, Scum Godwitch

Win the game! Congratulations!

Setup and play commentary in a bit, but I do have to say this: I find it highly amusing that Carthrat did not use his power role's ability at all during this entire game. Looks like we won't actually see a gov used on these forums in basically ever, at the rate we're going :P
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 3
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 05:14:48 AM
You guys started the day so well...

Read over confirmed players more

Congrats Sodium, you are now modconfirmed.

##Unvote

What now fellas?

Coincidence.  Scum had throwaway goofball vanilla roles too.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 31, 2009, 05:54:25 AM
That was way closer than it should have been.  I still maintain that going after Dorian D1 was not a scummy move.  I was playing exactly as I would have as a Townie there. :P  In fact, I was playing it pretty straight the whole time.  Carthrat was a smooth enough operator that I didn't have to choose between overlooking him and bussing him, and every day there was a pretty clearly obvious mislynch for us to fall back on.  That's the thing with such small scum teams - as long as both players are good enough at looking pro-town on their own merits, there isn't a whole lot to distinguish them as scum.

I suggested to Carthrat during N1 that maybe we ought to let Nuke live and just go after some other player to avoid the possibility of being blocked.  The deciding factor in attacking Nuke after all was that he had voiced suspicion of Carthrat, and as it happened, he did indeed try to scan Carthrat.  Attacking Nuke ended up being the safest thing we could have done - if he got protected by the jailkeeper, then there would be no scan, and if he wasn't protected, then he'd die, and there would be no scan.  Still, I was sort of disappointed that I didn't get a chance to draw a scan to myself and earn major town cred, though that would've led to problems of its own if the protective role had died and I still didn't get NK'd.

We almost didn't go after Nietz on N2.  Initially we were going to go after Kiro, but then we figured that it might be too obvious with a jailkeeper out there, so we decided that Nietz would be our best bet.  Who did Nietz end up protecting that night?

N3 we were most concerned with leaving our best LyLo targets alive.  Looking back on it, we probably should've let Kiro live.  There was bound to be some suspicion of as infamous an obvtown player as him living all the way to LyLo.  He also seemed less likely to view Carthrat and I as suspicious.  I think Roukanken would've been a smarter choice, though it all worked out in the end.

We had agreed going into LyLo that I would push a Zakeri lynch and Carthrat would push a Sodium lynch.  Honestly, I really did think that my case was stronger.  I really wasn't expecting to be anyone's second choice for lynch, though, not even Zakeri's.

Also, is it normal to suffer crippling pangs of guilt for putting forward cases that are technically valid, but which you know to be completely false?  >_>
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Edible on July 31, 2009, 06:18:57 AM
I forgot Serp was scum at one point while reading this game, FYI.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on July 31, 2009, 06:22:30 AM
That was... expertly played.  It turns out that I'm the only townie who didn't even so much as look closely at either scum, making it a little bit of a disappointment.  Kudos to Roukanken for being steady throughout the game and for putting forward a case on Serp in a LyLo and for being pretty much dependable for the entire game.  Town had too many distractions, I find, and I think that that threw everyone's scumdar off lots, leading to clear mislynches for every day.  Ho well, again, well done.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 06:49:14 AM
I still maintain that we tend to forget what recently deceased players posted. All the WoTs had stuff from what the currently living and suspected players said. Nobody went back over and thought about why DeadTownPlayer said and did what they posted about SuspectPlayer.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 31, 2009, 09:57:46 AM
Quote
The one guy who most of my suspicions revolved around turned out to actually be Town
Welp,

EDIT: Pesco, you fail to realise that dead Townies aren't 100% accurate. When you're dead you basically become nothing more than an opinion.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 11:06:31 AM
It didn't have to just be mine, there was Kiro, Nietz and Donut's opinion which could have been considered.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 31, 2009, 12:06:46 PM
Just because an opinion is earnest doesn't mean there's any point in paying attention to it. >_>

I will not lie, half the reason I was on Sodium was because I refused to accept Pesco's roleclaim clear of him. Likewise for his suspicions of Carth. In general I just have a complete hatred for gut because it isn't endorsed by SCIENCE.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 12:15:35 PM
Quote
Mindhax > Logic

 :V
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Nietz on July 31, 2009, 01:05:25 PM
I forgot Serp was scum at one point while reading this game, FYI.
And I still believe Pesco forgot he wasn't scum while playing the game. :V

I suggested to Carthrat during N1 that maybe we ought to let Nuke live and just go after some other player to avoid the possibility of being blocked.  The deciding factor in attacking Nuke after all was that he had voiced suspicion of Carthrat, and as it happened, he did indeed try to scan Carthrat.  Attacking Nuke ended up being the safest thing we could have done - if he got protected by the jailkeeper, then there would be no scan, and if he wasn't protected, then he'd die, and there would be no scan.
Wait... you're talking from hindsight or you knew there was a jailkeeper in the setup beforehand?

Quote
We almost didn't go after Nietz on N2.  Initially we were going to go after Kiro, but then we figured that it might be too obvious with a jailkeeper out there, so we decided that Nietz would be our best bet.  Who did Nietz end up protecting that night?
I blocked Carthrat. :P
I would've protectet myself if my role allowed, since I was fairly suspicious I would be targeted. Carth was my best bet for sending the scum NK (after pesco, who seemed just too obvious a RB target), because of the way he freaked out when NF woke up alive and with an attempted scan on him. He literally went from "Let's be cautious and not lynch the claimed cop so soon." to "OK, change of plans, let's lynch him NAO!".
I'm surprised nobody else noticed, I even tried to breadcrumb my suspicion at the end of Day 2.

As for Serp, yeah, not much suspicion of him the whole game, he was down there with Rou and Dorian/Sodium in the townie side of the scale.

I didn't read much of Day 4's WoTs, but lynching Sodium seemed a pretty bad choice all along, he had all the meta town tells he could possibly have on him (replaced player, flavour-confirmed, Sodium town-meta).

The flavour roles really threw me off though, I never expected they would actually be true.

Oh, and there was Fusion... Oh god, that was the worse cop play I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on July 31, 2009, 01:58:41 PM
I played in RWoS! I believe that gives me the power of SCIENCE! So yeah.

So When I got hammered, I was in the washroom. Seriously. Got a stomach ache while writing a "lol, I'ma be hammered soon" post, went away for thirty minutes do stuff. Then I was hammered in said 30 minutes. >_>

I pressed the self destruct button at LyLo. Sorry guys.

On a good day, Roukan, it would've been 2 for 2 instead of 0 for 2.

Also, why is Kiro always killed early in most games again?

lolNF
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 02:20:52 PM
Don't be causing unnecessary WIFOM. If I was scum, I wouldn't be as obvscum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 02:55:00 PM
Y'know, Town gains nothing from the following actions

1) Being smug and self-assured and all 'you should all trust me on no grounds at all'
2) Collapsing and folding under pressure

This is just another game where scum won without needing to do anything clever or special; how I normally advocate they should play, because I so rarely find myself needing to do more.

We were lucky NF managed to tank on day 2, lucky we offed Neitz on night 2, lucky pesco felt compelled to antagonize Rou to the maximum on day 3, and lucky Sodium just failed entirely on day 4. All we had to do was play solid and tight- and I didn't even do that, not on day 2 when I adopted the lynch-NF-at-all-costs strategy and leave Serp to win alone if need be.

I was literally laughing in my chair during LYLO, mostly because Zakeri and Rou scared the shit out of me earlier, and then everything trundled towards Sodium afterwards. You can't just fold in on yourself. There are always townies around who advocate lynching the weak, and always scum who are happy enough to go down that course. It's important to aim for maximum manliness all the time, because 'he's waffling/not giving an opinion/not playing the game' are such easy marks. If you're known to do this, you'll keep finding yourself getting lynched, never NK'd.

As for trusting dead townies, all you know about a dead townie is that he was sincere in what he said. That doesn't make him any more correct.

Addendum: There are two parts to town! One is being smart and finding scum. The other is communicating this to others. Thought of the day~
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 03:18:36 PM
Also, we killed Kiro because he's scary.

Actually I thought Rou would tunnel on *someone* who wasn't us and help us win. Imagine my surprise when he does a list of scumpairs and goes 'CARTH/SERP' first.

Affinity was an okay backup choice of lynch if sodium or zak somehow pulled through.

Kiro... how the hell do you lynch Kiro, and what odds are there of him going off half-cocked? >_<
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: FinnKaenbyou on July 31, 2009, 03:28:32 PM
Carth/Serp
Serp makes little/no mention of Carth as a suspect for the whole game, but despite this feels the need to point out 'Pesco-Carth scumpair is unlikely' during D3. Why?
Carth lumps Serp in with Affinity - THIS IS V. IMPOTANT IF CARTH IS SCUM, as is makes it hard for us to choose his potential buddy. On the other hand he was at odds with him over Dorian and the NF lynch D1 so yeah, this is less likely.
why did i drop this pair based on one stupid argument from day 1 aaaaaaaaaaah
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 03:32:20 PM
We're at odds with each other over a lynch that wasn't either of us or a buddy, yeah, that argument was throwaway. Made easier by the fact that it seems we both believed our respective positions. >_>

Also, happy birthday, Rou! :3
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Edible on July 31, 2009, 03:46:16 PM
Yeah, the night Nietz died I actually made scum specify which was doing the kill.  I would have died laughing if Nietz's block went through on the kill that night.

Quote
Wait... you're talking from hindsight or you knew there was a jailkeeper in the setup beforehand?

They figured it out Day 2 after their kill failed AND the cop's result was roleblocked while neither of them were RBs themselves.  Town just assumed it was a roleblocker.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 03:49:04 PM
As Serp said, yeah, we figured if either of us was getting blocked it was me. >_>

We knew NF was (probably) not lying about being a cop and so he had to die. If it failed, well, shit, but what else can you do there? Cop/Doc in this setup would've crushed us. Jailer was a good choice, I liked how the setup fit together in general.

and yeah gms let's try to keep clarifications and stuff private instead of public unless absolutely necessary

also more allowing scum to chat during day plz :D:D:D:D:D:D I miss that so much
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on July 31, 2009, 04:02:03 PM
Wait for my game if you want scum daytalk.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Kiro on July 31, 2009, 04:54:53 PM
The mods can confirm this, but I actually guessed Carth and Serp as the scumpair after I was NK'ed (It's true, he did). You should have let me live, it would have been more fun for you guys. :P I always seem to be a half-phase too late on these guesses.

I was 95% certain Carth was Scum after the Pesco flip. How you just latched onto Rou's case of Pesco on Day 1, the quick switch to NF on Day 2 and the quick vote on Pesco on Day 3... all of it without any of your own original points. Your lack of input Day 3 after Pesco was teetering at L-2 or L-1 stood out. I was going to call you out for who your second choice of lynch would be, but I didn't want to draw attention to myself as an NK target. But I guess that never works. I should have pressed harder on that while I still could and force you to converse with us.

Serp edged out Affinity as my second choice. After Pesco's flip, my case on Zakeri pretty much fell apart (Zak being the swing from what I thought was ScumPesco to TownDonut) and I pegged Zakeri as Town. That heightened my suspicion on Serp who had pegged Zakeri as his second choice of lynch after Pesco. Serp also coasted through Day 3 without much input and his wanting to lynch the lurker on Day 1 also felt "lazy" as well. Also Affinity's responses to me felt ok and I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he was contributing more at the time.

I was surprised and had my hopes up when Zak voted Serp on Day 4, I was expecting Carthrat to be an easier lynch. However, I was disappointed that Town decided to focus on what people said rather than how people voted. As we can make the case with all the mislynches this game, Townies can and do stay stupid scummy shit all the time. That never means they're actually scum. Conversely, Scum can say Townie stuff like "don't lynch the copclaim on Day 1", but that doesn't mean they're Town either. I guess Affinity didn't like it, but my way of doing things is to look at the votes more and speculate on the reasons why they would do it from a Town or Scum perspective. Sometimes the pieces click together better that way after we see some flips, particularly when the scummy looking Pesco got lynched as expected but flipped Town. It was so easy for Scum to push the Pesco mislynch and I saw Carth and Serp both do that. I was sad that Sodium got lynched because I thought he was Townie midway through Day 3 even after he buckled under pressure by unvoting Pesco Day 3 and part of his Day 4.

The big problem in this game is that NF and Pesco were so outlandish that I was unable to ignore them and had to get on their lynches. We lost 2 whole Days due to this and I've already told Pesco, but I'm more mad at him than NF because Pesco should know that Mafia is a team game and not do stupid shit like that. NF is only a first time offender although it was about as bad as you can get.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Carthrat on July 31, 2009, 04:58:50 PM
You realise I'm never going to let you live if I'm scum and you're town, now, christ. >_<
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: ?lice Bl?ckb?rn on July 31, 2009, 05:06:46 PM
@Pesco: that wasn't a mod-confirmation you git, and even if it was, it only confirmed flavour, not alignment. Need I remind you that, while figuring out correctly who the two scum actually WERE post-lynch, all you did IN THE GAME was be a generally horrible distraction to Town? I mean really.

@Serp: Nietz wound up jailkeeping (not protecting - a jailkeeping is a protect+an RB) Carthrat N2, which is why I found it amusing that you suddenly switched to sending in NKs after N1 when Carthrat sent it in instead.

Also, if you're getting pangs of guilt, you're doing it wrong :P

Anyway, mod comments on the game!

Scum play was in general very good. Both Carthrat and Serpentarius have very good, distinct playstyles, and both were instrumental in securing an easy win for Scum in this game. Then again, this game didn't really need elaborate gambits or excellent debating skills - all that was needed was the ability to look like a Townie and harness the Town's horrible amounts of confusion and noise (this may be one of the worst mafia games I've ever seen when it comes to crappy SNR) to destroy them, which both Scum did excellently. Honestly, both of them were pretty good, so they both get a Co-MVP :P

One thing that I'm going to bring up again, is that Carthrat never actually used his power. I'm still quite amused by this, especially since it was a very GOOD one for scum. Meh.

Town on the other hand...

First off, I vote that Nucleaire Fusion gets a temporary ban from the next 5 mafia games, if not indefinetly. Seriously, that was just rage-inducing. ANYWAY.

Scummy Townies all around was basically what happened this game. Guys, is it that hard to look like a damn Townie when you ARE a damn Townie? It could have made this game go completely differently if you guys weren't practically leaping into the noose yourselves.

Not sure about Town MVP. Nietz deserves some cred for guessing Carth N2, Zakeri deserves some cred for catching Serp as scum, even if it's for slightly questionable reasons.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 31, 2009, 05:28:58 PM
Quote
I still maintain that going after Dorian D1 was not a scummy move.  I was playing exactly as I would have as a Townie there. :P
And I still think trying to avoid an informational lynch is scummy, whether or not scum themselves thought so.

Quote
Also, is it normal to suffer crippling pangs of guilt for putting forward cases that are technically valid, but which you know to be completely false?  >_>
Yes, but just remind yourself that this is all fun and games and you're playing to win~.

Let's see ... yeah, I really meant everything I said in my defense. I was pretty much up against a wall at the end of Day 1 because I needed to throw my vote somewhere, but I have a feeling that if I had voted for the three being bandwagoned, it would have ended badly for the town and myself. I almost went with the Dorian Lynch instead, but Serp's attack on him still felt scummy to me, even then, and I decided to go after Donut instead. Unfortunately, I really did need Dorian lynched in order for people to have taken my case on Serp Seriously, so I knew we had already lost the game when Carthrat voted for Sodium.

Quote
Just because an opinion is earnest doesn't mean there's any point in paying attention to it. >_>

I will not lie, half the reason I was on Sodium was because I refused to accept Pesco's roleclaim clear of him. Likewise for his suspicions of Carth. In general I just have a complete hatred for gut because it isn't endorsed by SCIENCE.

Wait, so basically what you mean to say is PESCO IS ALWAYS WRONG FOREVER AND FOREVER AND I WILL NEVER LISTEN TO HIM EVEN IF THE MOD SAYS THAT I SHOULD HAVE BEEN TRUSTING HIM IN THE FIRST PLACE. I mean, yeah, it's one thing to dismiss his clear because it was based on bullshit, but to go after Sodium partly BECAUSE of it? I think we can rule out Scumbuddies when someone flips town :V

I agree that when a townie dies, it doesn't mean they were right. But it doesn't also mean they were wrong. Sometimes, Sincere Advice is the best kind of advice you can get.

There's not much else to say other than I was right well, actually I had Affinity Pegged for Serp's Scumbuddy, but I don't know what a day two lookover would have revealed to me, since that's when Carthrat Cracked. I still had yet to rule out Carthrat or Roukanken as a Scumbuddy to Serp.

Although, all this talk of Scumpairing, I'm surprized Sodium wasn't cleared base on that. Carthrat - Wants to lynch him, Rou - Wants to lynch him, Affinity - Wants to lynch him, Serpentarius - Wanted to lynch him day one, said Sodium felt town, then wanted to lynch him end of day three onward. Basically, the only scumpairing with Dorian that made sense was him and Myself.

And Finally, I'd like to attribute our loss more to our inability to escape from day one than anything else:
BANDWAGONS ON DAY ONE
DONUT
PESCO
DORIDIUM
NUKE (defused due to cop claim)
LYNCHES FOR THE WHOLE GAME
DONUT
PESCO
DORIDIUM
NUKE (day ending modkill)

Just wanted to point that last part out.

Anyways, GG Scum.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Serp on July 31, 2009, 05:46:40 PM
Quote from: Carthrat
This is just another game where scum won without needing to do anything clever or special; how I normally advocate they should play, because I so rarely find myself needing to do more.

It really wasn't much different than playing as Town.  Make good cases, and don't get lynched.  When only one player out of the group is "off-limits" (barring bussing), the most important difference in playing scum is that you decide who dies at night.

Quote from: Edible
I forgot Serp was scum at one point while reading this game, FYI.

It's funny that you put it this way.  I try to do my best to forget my alignment too, when I draw Scum.  Consciously thinking about what you can do to make it to LyLo doesn't really work.

Quote from: Pesco
It didn't have to just be mine, there was Kiro, Nietz and Donut's opinion which could have been considered.

Don't forget Nuke's, too. :V

Quote from: Nietz
Wait... you're talking from hindsight or you knew there was a jailkeeper in the setup beforehand?

It was definitely a good move in hindsight, and it was supported by foresight, but certainly not by foreknowledge, not for that kill.

Quote from: Nietz
I blocked Carthrat. :P

Yeah, Carthrat figured that he was more likely to be blocked and explicitly suggested that I send in the N2 kill.  Carthrat sent in the N1 kill, because I wanted to be clean to all scans, not just cop ones.

Quote from: Carthrat
Also, we killed Kiro because he's scary.

Seconding this.  Carthrat and I were shaking in our curly witch boots all game at the thought of Kiro calling us out with an incredible case.  Totally justified by Kiro's recap post, of course.

Quote from: Carthrat
We're at odds with each other over a lynch that wasn't either of us or a buddy, yeah, that argument was throwaway. Made easier by the fact that it seems we both believed our respective positions. >_>

I think Carth and I were tough to peg as a scumpair precisely because we have rather different approaches to scumhunting. :V  Honestly, early in the game I was thinking to myself, "C'mon, Carth, be more harsh about tearing apart my case.  I'm totally right, but I know you don't think so."

Quote from: Alice Margatroid
Also, if you're getting pangs of guilt, you're doing it wrong :P

I know you're supposed to turn your conscience off before playing mafia, and I rarely have problems with conscience in general, but I started seeing where Pesco was coming from on D3.  Funny that Kiro mentions my support of the Pesco lynch as a scummy point - it was there, more than any other time, that I was thinking more as scum than as town.

Quote from: Alice Margatroid
One thing that I'm going to bring up again, is that Carthrat never actually used his power. I'm still quite amused by this, especially since it was a very GOOD one for scum. Meh.

Oh, Carthrat and I did discuss it on every night.  Introducing WIFOMs and such is always a valid option for scum, and Carthrat even raised the idea of using it on a townie and then publicly coming out as Town Governor with a characteristic speech along the lines of "This guy is obvtown and I'm not going to let you idiots lynch him."  Ultimately, we decided exactly what you said up there - that we could get by just by playing it completely straight and letting the town tear itself apart.

Quote from: Alice Margatroid
Not sure about Town MVP. Nietz deserves some cred for guessing Carth N2, Zakeri deserves some cred for catching Serp as scum, even if it's for slightly questionable reasons.

And I still maintain that my vote of Dorian was totally justified.  I played D1 completely straight.  I feel that I can't emphasize this enough.  Granted, in future games, I might make a judgement call in the other direction, but...  This time, I was totally sincere.

Quote from: Zakeri
Basically, the only scumpairing with Dorian that made sense was him and Myself.

Indeed, that's why I had to go after you.  Though, I really did sincerely believe that you were going to be the LyLo lynch when I went over everything N3.  Was the fact that I pursued Zakeri so aggressively in LyLo a factor that made people pick me as their second choice for lynch?

Quote from: Zakeri
NUKE (day ending modkill)

And Nuke probably would've gotten lynched even if he hadn't gotten modkilled.  At least, that's how I foresaw it, and it's the path I was going to push for.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: WHMZakeri on July 31, 2009, 06:25:46 PM
Quote
And I still maintain that my vote of Dorian was totally justified.  I played D1 completely straight.  I feel that I can't emphasize this enough.  Granted, in future games, I might make a judgement call in the other direction, but...  This time, I was totally sincere.

I'm starting to worry that this is true :C

Quote
Don't forget Nuke's, too. :V
Pesco: "Town needs to go back an evaluate dead townie's opinions."
Roukanken: "Yeah, except townies aren't always right."
Carthrat: "Just because someone's sincere doesn't mean they're right."
Neitz: "By the way, I'm really disappointed that no one picked up on my suspicion of Carthrat day two."
Serpentarius: "Yeah, what Rou and Carth said!"

:V

And yes, You had more than enough town support to lynch Nuke. Even I agree lynching him was worth losing the cop (It also helped that Town really didn't have a way of knowing WHY he was roleblocked until well after he was lynch/modkilled, either.)
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Affinity on August 01, 2009, 03:36:09 AM
Wow Kiro.  I think I should try your method for once; it seems far more successful.

Actually, interestingly, if I had gotted lynched or killed, would my flip be that of a Vanilla Townie, or a Doc?  If it was latter, I think it would have messed up quite a lot of people.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Sodium on August 01, 2009, 03:37:45 AM
Wow Kiro.  I think I should try your method for once; it seems far more successful.

Actually, interestingly, if I had gotted lynched or killed, would my flip be that of a Vanilla Townie, or a Doc?  If it was latter, I think it would have messed up quite a lot of people.
Vanilla. Which makes me wonder:
What did Donut get?
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Pesco on August 01, 2009, 03:39:05 AM
Choco-cuppacino, with swirls of caramel and sprinkled with hazelnuts flavoured townie.
Title: Re: Umineko Mafia - Day 4
Post by: Edible on August 01, 2009, 04:40:10 AM
Here are the original role PMs.  I'm too lazy to see if Alice edited them once I sent them to him, but:

Quote
1 - Roukanken - Pick A VT Role

You are Genji, quintessential servant of Kinzo and the head servant on Rokkenjima.  While you are immensely badass and could easily flip out and kill everyone on the island like the badass old butler you are, Kinzo hasn't commanded you to... and thus, your hands are tied.

You are a town vigilante with zero kills remaining.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

2 - Pesco - Pick A VT Role

You are Natsuhi Ushiromiya, wife of Krauss and mother of Jessica.  You are kind of a bitch, but at least you're somewhat well-meaning.  Unfortunately, you get headaches fairly often.  These things hurt like hell.  It does mean that you have a bottle of aspirin around, which you may use at night to ease the pain during the following day.  They don't do anything other than curing headaches, though.

You are a town aspirin addict.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

3 - Kiro - Jessica (Tsurupettan~)

You are Jessica Ushiromiya, daughter of Krauss and Natsuhi.  When not wilting under the oppressive glare of your mother and father, you become Jessie and shred the shit out of your guitar.  At night, you may play your hit song to any other player, who will hear it.  Unfortunately, this doesn't help much in Mafia...

You are a town rock-star-in-hiding.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

4 - Carthrat - Bern (Scum Gov)

You are Hideyoshi Ushiromiya, husband of Eva and father of George.  Your wife may be a crazy bitch, but your jovial nature tends to keep her in check.  At night, you may attempt to sell fish.  Unfortunately, your fish-on-a-stick is not very useful in Mafia.

You are a town fishmonger.  You win with the town.

...

Or rather... that's what you'd like town to believe.

You are actually Frederika Bernkastel! You are a town in the Rhineland-Palatinate federal state in Germany the Witch of Miracles, and as such, have the power to save someone's life! Because the act of deciding for a lynch is so heavily based on statistics and randomness (it's basically chaos-theoretic in its complexity), there is always the possibility that the person in question might not be lynched at all! Because of your power, you have the ability to force this. Every night, you may PM Alice and I with the name of one person whom you do not wish to see lynched the following day. At the beginning of that day, I will post a notification that a lynch of this person will not go through, therefore it is futile for the Town to attempt doing so. You may use this power three times before the end of this game, however, if the following day has a Lynch-or-Lose scenario (LYLO), your power will not work, even if you have charges remaining.

You are a scum governor with 3 shots.  Your scum partner is Beatrice (Serpentarius).  You may talk to each other at Night when everyone else is asleep, and at any time before the game starts.  You win when town is dead.  Best of luck!

5 - Serpentarius - Beato (Scum GF)

You are Ushiromiya Rosa, mother of Maria.  Wow, are you a bitch or what?  You treat your child like a Mack truck treats a deer at 90 miles per hour.  At night, you may bitchslap Maria because you do that every night anyway.

You are a town abusive parent.  You win with the town.

...

Or rather... that's what you'd like town to believe.

You are actually Beatrice, Golden Witch of Rokkenjima!  You're out to kill everyone, and you're aligned with Bernkastel, the Witch of Miracles.  You're really good at what you do, and thus no attempts to discover your true identity will come to fruition.  Hooray! <3

You are a scum godfathermotherwitch.  Your scumpartner is Bernkastel (Carthrat).  You may talk to each other at Night when everyone else is asleep, and at any time before the game starts.  You win when town is dead.  Best of luck!

6 - Nuclear Fusion - Battler (Town Cop)

You are Battler Ushiromiya, and you are pretty much the walking personification of awesome.  Women fall at your feet, and it is with righteous rage and anger at the murder of your friends and family that you turn the chessboard over to discover the true nature of any other player, once per night.

You are a town cop.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

7 - Zakeri - Pick A VT Role, i.e. Sayo-chan

You are Kanon.  You are a wimp; you can't even pick up a bag of fertilizer.  Wimp.  At night, you are a wimp and can't do anything.  Wimpy mcwimperson.

You are a town wimp.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

8 - Nietz - Kanon (Town Jailer)

You are Shannon.  As #2 among the servants on Rokkenjima, you find it is your duty to protect your friends and loved ones by any means at your disposal.  At night, you may target one player to smother him or her with your ample bosom, which manages to both protect them from harm and prevent them from doing anything else... not that they'd want to.

You are a town jailer.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

9 - Affinity - Pick A VT Role, i.e. Nanjo

You are Dr. Nanjo!  Unfortunately, you are an awful doctor.  Seriously.  You suck.  You're bad at what you do and it shows.  However, you do happen to play a mean game of chess!  At night, you may play chess.  Too bad chess doesn't help you much in Mafia...

You are a town doctor with zero charges.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

10 - Donut - Pick A VT Role, i.e. Gohda

You are Gohda.  As the ranking chef on Rokkenjima, it is your duty to feed the other residents.  You're a fantastic cuisine artist with a fairly poor personality.  However, your honed senses allow you to detect any other food being used.  You may use this ability at night, but it won't do you much good in mafia...

You are a town chef.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!

11 - Dorian - Pick A VT Role, i.e. George

You are Rudolf Ushiromiya.  You're a pretty cool guy, and you're the father of Battler and the husband of Kyrie.  You have the power to be cool.  At night, you may be cool.  Unfortunately, being cool does not necessarily help you in Mafia.

You are a town cool guy.  You win with the town.  Best of luck!